Biden just does verbal slips - if he notices he corrects himself - and has a lot of support from other world leaders in NATO as a good leader of NATO for his depth of knowledge and experience
This is about ageism and how senior citizen presidents are just as capable as younger ones. As usual I am doing my best not to be partisan but of course this is especially relevant to Biden as he is the one in the news right now. But Trump is a senior citizen too.
The people I am helping are mainly democrats who are scared that Biden mightn’t be able to mount an effective campaign for president. But I would have written a similar blog post if it was Republicans scared and if Biden was a Republican president or if they were scared about verbal slips Trump made.
My aim is just to help scared people.
My point here is that American citizens should vote for the president whose policies they prefer and the man who they would like to see as president. You shouldn’t vote for the younger or the older presidential candidate just because of age.
Most of us have made verbal slips from time to time. Some do it more than others.
For instance I’ve written tens of thousands of words each on human and robotic missions to Mars and to the Moon in my science blog posts. Yet I have to be very careful because I’ll often type “Mars “when I mean “the Moon” and vice versa. Same also when talking.
Mars has a land area similar to the entire land area of Earth, is red in colour has a thin atmosphere, humans have never been here, and is so small it just looks like a reddish star to naked eye
The Moon has a land area about the size of a continent (between Africa and Asia in area), is dark grey in colour, has no atmosphere, I watched humans land there on TV in 1969, it’s the source of moonlight, and the only one we can see any features on with naked eye.
I would never confuse those two ideas! Yet I sometimes will write “The Moon” in a sentence about Mars and vice versa. While writing this blog post I typed Trump a couple of times when I meant Biden and quickly corrected it. I never at any moment thought this article was about Trump.
Well it’s similar for Biden. He said:
And now I want to hand it over to the president of Ukraine who has as much courage as he has determination ladies and gentlemen President Putin. President Putin?! You're going to beat President Putin
There is no way he was thinking Putin - he talked about the president of Ukraine and Zelensky was right there beside him. He immediately corrected himself.
It is clearly just a harmless verbal slip. And as we’ll see he has a clean bill of health, neurologically just a bit of arthritis in his spine and a damaged leg which leads to him walking stiffly with small steps.
SUPPORT FOR BIDEN AS A CAPABLE LEADER FROM NATO LEADERS AFTER THE NATO SUMMMIT
President Macron's perspective from France:
TRANSCRIPT STARTS
I'll refrain from commenting on American domestic politics.
We all slip up sometimes. It's happened to me. and it could happen to me again tomorrow.
I would ask for your indulgence as I would from any kind hearted person.
And continued:
TRANSCRIPT CONTINUES
Now, I had a long talk with President Biden at yesterday's dinner and I heard his talks in various meetings, and I saw him as always, a president who is very much in charge, and clear on the issues he knows well.
He's very experienced, he was without any doubt amongst those who has the greatest depth of knowlede on these international issues when we were around the table, and he is a solid ally, his commitment to and bond with Europe is exemplary.
And I can say that France and Europe are very fortunate to have a US president wthat is as engaged as he is.
OLAF SCHOLTZ'S Perspective from Germany:
TRANSCRIPT STARTS
Amna: We know that you and the other nato allies and the rest of the world are watching this upcoming U.S. Election with great interest. It was last month, you said that you believe president Biden is likely to win a second term.
You've said this week that you don't have any concerns about his health, as other folks have raised questions.
We have since that debate performance, though, we've seen the biggest shift in polls here in the U.S. Away from him and towards former president trump that we' seen to date. You still believe that he is key to win?
Ch. Scholz: I'm not someone that is able to say how will be the outcome of American elections. But I think it would be a big mistake to under estimate the president.
He is successful in doing the necessary things, for instance, in organizing the NATO alliance. And his leadership was very important in the last years and months, and also preparing this very meeting here in Washington.
And he is also a successful campaigner. So I think it is the American people that will take a decision.
And I just can tell you from my perspective, as someone that is speaking with Biden, he is very focused and he is very intensely doing what the president of the United States has to do for leading the alliance.
Amna: You have been in a unique position this week. Have you seen any moments at all in your latest interactions with him that tell you in any way he is not up to another four years?
Ch. Scholz: No.
Amna: And can I also ask, did you watch the debate that has created so many headlines here?
Ch. Scholz: Yes, I did.
Amna: You did.
Ch. Scholz: To be honest, everyone in Europe is very much interested in the politics within the United States because the United States are the strongest superpower in the world. And it's our most important ally.
So we are trying to understand what goes on.
Amna: And as you watched it, nothing that you saw gave you any concern or reason for pause?
Ch. Scholz: I think that he made his points and he argued why it is necessary to work on a good cooperation globally with our friends and allies of democracy, democratic states. And he was very clear and focused on questions of national politics.
Amna: Mr. Biden, as you mentioned, has been a strong and a vocal defender of NATO, of its role in the world. How much do you think is at stake for the alliance in this upcoming U.S. Election?
Ch. Scholz: The alliance is important for the security of the United States, of Canada, and of all the European states on the other side of the atlantic.
I think it is necessary that we understand that though there might be differences between the states joining the alliance, it is not about the basic principles of how to run the country and about democracy, as I said.
That is the exact impression I got from Biden from the debate. He seemed very exhausted. He had a hoarse voice. He spoke quietly. But what he said was intellectually very clear whenever he was able to finish his sentences.
All that fuss about him not finishing sentences is because he had to speak to a timer. His microphone cut out automatically at 2 minutes. Early on he tried to fit in too much and that’s why he ended the 2 minutes with “beat medicare”. Which obviously he didn’t mean, and given a few more seconds he’d have corrected his verbal glitch. It was just a verbal glitch.
Later on in the debate he made more verbal glitches but by then he had got used to the format and he timed his sentences to finish well within the 2 minutes giving him time to correct himself or to add to what he said. That is the main reason why he seemed to get better later on.
Here is what Justin Trudeau said about him:
Q. What is your assessment of preesident Biden's perofrmance and if he can lead on the global stage?
Trudeau We are lucky to have Joe Biden leading here at NATO on the G7 in some extraordinarily consequential times. His depth of experience, his thoughtfulnes, his steadfastness on the greatest issues and challenges of our time, is a credit to the work that we are all doing together and it has been as always a privilege and pleasure to work alongside him on big issues. I look forward to continuing to.
https://x.com/CalltoActivism/status/1811814191520481363
And about why elderly people find it harder to retrieve words than younger people - it is to do with speech production not about semantics, not about the meaning of what we say - which matches my own experience as someone who is coming up to his 70th birthday this year.
QUOTE Older adults experience more word-finding failures, such as tip-of-the-tongue states, than young adults do, and this and other speech production failures appear to stem from difficulties in retrieving the sounds of words. Recent evidence has identified a parallel age-related decline in retrieving the spelling of familiar words. Models of cognitive aging must explain why these aspects of language production decline with aging whereas semantic processes are well maintained.
What Biden said - notice how he describes Zelensky accurately in all respects he just comes out with the wrong name which shows it is a language production issue not a semantics issue. Nothing to do with the concepts in his mind while talking.
QUOTE STARTS
I've said before Russia will not Prevail in this war Ukraine will prevail in this war and we'll stand with them every single step of the way that's what the compact says loudly and clearly.
And now I want to hand it over to the president of Ukraine who has as much courage as he has determination ladies and gentlemen President Putin. President Putin?! You're going to beat President Putin. President Zelensky I'm so focused on beating Putin we got to worry about it anyway.
On the other slip, referring to his “vice president Trump” it’s the same thing. He referred to her as “her” which made it clear he was thinking about Kamala Harris not Trump.
There is no way that Biden mistook Zelensky for Putin or mistook Kamala Harris for Trump.
Biden tweeted immediately afterwards:
By the way: Yes, I know the difference.
One’s a prosecutor, and the other’s a felon.
http://hhttps://x.com/JoeBiden/status/1811559621791752554
DEMOCRATS SUPPORT BIDEN AS THEIR CANDIDATE AFTER THE NATO SUMMIT, PRESS CONFERENCE AND THEN RALLY
"I thought he showed a real command of foreign policy, really extraordinary," North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper told reporters on Friday. "I don’t think Donald Trump can talk about foreign policy coherently for one minute."
Gavin Newsom, the California governor touted as a possible successor, told CBS he was "all in" for Mr Biden, adding that there was "no daylight" between them.
Congressman Brendan Boyle of Pennsylvania said Mr Biden "showed he knows a million times more about policy" than Trump, "the convict conman".
Also the BBC reporting is supportive of him after his rally:
TRANSCRIPT
President Biden will be very pleased with his performance at this rally. He got through his speech back free and he really fed off the energy of his crowd here.
The video of his rally is here: LIVE: Biden speaks live at Detroit rally after high-stakes news conference
NO BIDEN DOES NOT HAVE PARKINSON’S DISEASE, HIS STIFF GAIT AND SMALL STEPS ARE BECAUSE OF A DAMAGED FOOT AND SPINAL ARTHRITIS - HIS CONDITION IS STABLE MANAGED WITH 5 SESSIONS OF PHYSICAL STRETCHING EXERCISES A WEEK
On medical examinations he says he gets a thorough neurological examination every year, last time in February. He has a team of doctors to look after him and he talks to his doctor regularly. He spoke to him immediately after the debate and he just said he seemed exhausted.
If a president had to go and get tested by an independent doctor when where would it end?
TRANSCRIPT STARTS
And so, the point I’m making is: I think it’s important that if my neurologist tells me he thinks I need another exam — and, by the way, I’ve — I’ve laid every bit of the record out. I haven’t hidden a thing.
You ought to ask Trump for his, okay?
I’ve laid it all out.
And every single day, I’m surrounded by good docs. If they think there’s a problem, I promise you — or even if they don’t think it’s a problem — they think I should have a neurological exam again, I’ll do it. But no one is suggesting that to me now.
And I’ll ask you another question. No matter what I did, no one is going to be satisfied. “Did you have seven docs? Did you have two? Who did you have? Did you do this? How many times have you” —
So, I am not opposed. If my doctors tell me they should — I should have another neurological exam, I’ll do it. But that’s where I am.
. Remarks by President Biden in Press Conference | The White House
The sensationalist press recently shared a video of an expert on Parkinson’s disease who claimed he could diagnose Biden as having Parkinson’s disease just from the videos. He gave this stiff gait as one of the reasons for the diagnosis.
. Top neurologist makes claim that Biden 'definitely' has Parkinson's
He clearly had never read Biden’s medical report.
It explains why he walks in a stiff way and with smaller steps than before. It is because he has spinal arthritis, post-fracture foot arthritis and a sensory peripheral neuropathy of the feet.
Then next page says:
. President Biden’s current health summary
The New York Times ran a story about Dr Canard, an expert on Parkinson’s disease who visited the White House 8 times in 8 months.
. Parkinson's expert visited White House 8 times in 8 months, met with Biden's doctor
Biden’s own doctor responded with a letter where he said he got permission from both Dr Cannard and Biden to share what would otherwise be confidential information. Dr Canard is the consulting neurologist for the thousands of people looked after by the White House medical team. He has only seen Biden for his annual medical exams.
. Letter from Biden’s doctor, Kevin O’Connor
WHY POLLS MEAN LITTLE TODAY
There's the Gaza Strip conflict where a lot of the disapproval is about Biden's handling of Gaza Strip but the people who disapprove on the basis of Palestinian rights would never want to vote for Trump. And there are 4 months now until election day with the potential for a ceasefire and work to a more lasting solution there. Similarly with Ukraine then there is 4 months, a lot can happen.
Then it's the first time that the sitting president has been up against a former president and first time with someone who by then will be a convicted and sentenced felon. With Jan 06 then by then the pre-trial hearings will surely have decided that Trump can be prosecuted for ordering a false slate of electors, Sotomeyer thought the Supreme Court should have said it right away on the basis of what they knew already.
It is a very unique situation.
And you can't use approval ratings to predict elections. For an example the other way George H. W. Bush had very high approval ratings for his 3rd year average though it dipped towards the end.
His average approval rating was 69.5 in his third year. Everyone expected him to win, yet he lost to Clinton.
. George H. W. Bush - Wikipedia
While Obama won re-election at 44.5
. Biden's Approval Rating Compared to Other Presidents
Then it's rather an old example but Truman got a surprise re-election after he had succeeded as president from vice president when Franklin D. Roosevelt died. Partly because of his very low approval ratings he was expected to lose, but he won 303 electoral votes to Dewey's 189. A resounding success.
For details see:
. Dewey Defeats Truman - Wikipedia
Biden has an even higher disapproval rating than Truman but not by a lot and Truman won by a spectacularly large margin.
. 1948 United States presidential election - Wikipedia
That was a very unusual situation but so is this one. The charts are from:
From all this it is clear that though approval ratings may be a factor, people don't select their president based on approval ratings.
They will often vote for a president that they are not very keen on but they like his policies or they think he will get the job done better.
This is a very unusual situation, the first time a president is facing competition from an ex president.
However, Trump's popularity at the end of his first term was almost identical to Biden's popularity at the end of his first term. Notice the spectacular drop in Trump’s approval after Jan 06.
Donald Trump approval / disapproval for first term. How Popular Is Donald Trump?
Biden Approval / disapproval How Popular Is Joe Biden?
Kamala Harris’s approval / disapproval ratings are almost identical to Joe Biden.
Kamala Harris Kamala Harris : Approval Polls
That suggests that the disapproval of Joe Biden is nothing to do with his age or they would approve of Kamala Harris more than Joe Biden.
We don't have approval / disapproval ratings for Trump now because he is not president. They are only available for a president when he is in office as it is about approval for how well he is handling his job.
Comparing favorability then they are about 3.5% apart.
Trump Donald Trump : Favorability Polls
Biden Joe Biden : Favorability Polls
. Donald Trump : Favorability Polls
He is a few % higher in favorability than Joe Biden.
Joe Biden : Favorability Polls
538 don’t seem to have favorability polls for Kamala Harris.
There seems to be little to choose between any of the candidates. It may even be that the office of president as an office is unpopular at present irrespective of who runs as president for some reason. That even if you are popular as a person that if you run as president your approval rating will automatically be around 40% or less because the American people have got fed up of presidents for some reason, lost trust in the office and need to regain that trust and confidence in the presidency.
Not saying that is the reason but it's as consistent with the data as anything. It could be a result of the Syria conflicts, the pandemic, and the following recession, inflation and the Ukraine war and the Gaza Strip conflict leading to a feeling that no president is able to sort things out adequately.
It could also be effects of Trump casting doubts on the electoral process leading to Americans losing some of their normal confidence in democracy even though the allegations have all been thrown out by the courts.
In reality America is in a good shape which will become clearer over the next few years. Whoever becomes president in 2025 will inherit a country that is well on its way to recovery unless some other big shock comes along. But the American people may have a mistaken feeling that no president can resolve the current issues.
For those who have worried about Biden's poor debate performance - I think people are worrying less now since his strong speech to NATO. Which everyone should have expected, after all he talks to world leaders every day and is widely respected and is always on the phone to NATO.
VOTER INTENT CAN BE VERY DIFFERENT FROM APPROVAL RATINGS
538 has one of the best election prediction models, and it has so much uncertainty that they can't reliably distinguish between a landslide where Biden gets almost all the states including Louisiana and a landslide where Trump gets almost all states including Washington.
They currently have Trump at a 3 in 100 chance of getting Washington and Biden at a 2 in 100 chance of getting Louisiana. These are not credible possibilities it is just that the data is very incomplete at present. Also many undecideds and moderates don't even know which way they will vote themselves.
That doesn't mean either of those are even remotely possible it just shows how hard it is to extract any useful information from the polls this far in advance of the elections.
But it may give an idea of directions polling intention shifts.
You can see that it has shifted towards Biden if anything since the debate and the NATO conference and the assassination and then naturally shifted back in the direction nof Trump after the Republican National Convention, currently equal and it would be no surprise if it shifts to Trump favouring as they start to poll the public after the RNC. There’s the Democrat National Convention next in August and the campaign proper starts in September..
TEXT ON GRAPHIC:
Ranges all the way from
- Trump < 80 out of 538 to
- Biden < 80 out of 538
electoral college votes.
Neither of these scenarios are possible.
Just got too little data and too much uncertainty to be more precise yet.
It may be useful to some extent to show the direction voter intention is shifting but if so then it's shifted towards Biden if anything in the last few days.
They say:
538’s forecast is based on a combination of polls and campaign “fundamentals,” such as economic conditions, state partisanship and incumbency. It’s not meant to “call” a winner, but rather to give you a sense of how likely each candidate is to win.
It is those extra factors that distinguish them from some of the other models out there that predict a landslide for Trump.
538 changed their code from their very successful 2020 prediction when Nate Silver left taking his code with him - but the new head of their team has still probably built one of the best election prediction models out there.
This is the chap who replaced him ABC News Hires The Economist’s G. Elliott Morris To Lead Data Analytics Team, Oversee FiveThirtyEight After Nate Silver Exit
ACADEMIC STUDY OF THE SAME GROUP BEFORE AND AFTER THE DEBATE FINDS A SLIGHT SWING AWAY FROM TRUMP AND A SLIGHT SWING TOWARDS BIDEN IF ANYTHING
This is about the debate itself. A study using the same group of people before and after. If anything they found a small shift AWAY from Trump after the debate. Both of the debaters lost some support. Biden kept onto 94% of his support. While Trump only held onto 86% of his support. The difference between the two isn't that much and we shouldn't put too much weight on it.
Probably it's best to summarize it as saying that both lost about 10%. But if the difference is real, it means Biden lost only 6% and Trump lost 14% or more than twice as much. And remember that this is just the short term effect immediately after the debate. Before long it gets forgotten especially this far ahead of the elections.
Neither will be much affected by the debate.
QUOTE STARTS
What the report finds is that Biden held on to 94% of the people who said they would support him before the debate. For Trump, 86% of people who said they would support him before the debate said they would do so after the debate.
“What we see is that there is some churn –– maybe 10 percent or so of people change what they answer –– but that the net result is not a movement away from Biden,” Lazer says. “If anything, it seems that Biden is holding on to his people somewhat better than Trump.”
. Biden's poor debate performance had almost no impact on voter preference, new report says
He also said
QUOTE STARTS
Lazer hopes the report helps illustrate the dangers of making a mountain out of a molehill when it comes to the media interpreting data.
“Even the New York Times, which is usually better about this, talked about a very tiny shift that was totally insignificant statistically like it was evidence that it was a shift toward Trump after the debate,” Lazer says. “My hope is that reporters look at this and say, ‘Maybe we need to be careful in overinterpreting noise as actual signal.’”
. Biden's poor debate performance had almost no impact on voter preference, new report says
And reminder polls are very inaccurate especially this far in advance.
Unless they say a landslide either way they tell us little.
In the UK election the polls all predicted a Labour landslide but the SNP lost much more than most expected and the Reform UK got somewhat fewer and Greens rather more than expected.
In the French elections as you will most of you know, the polls were way out.
The US elections are especially hard to predict.
More information about it. This is for the shift from May to after the debate. Interestingly of those who were undecided in may, more shifted to Biden than to Trump. 24% of undecideds went to Biden, 16% to Trump.
. Dropbox
They also did a comparison immediately before / after the debate.
Comparing immediately before and after the debate they found that the margin in favour of Trump dropped from 6% to 3%. Biden went up 1% as a result of the debate and Trump down 2%.
So if anything the debate likely increased the tendency to want to vote for Biden.
It's led to people paying more attention to Biden. He's been like this all along but they are only just noticing that he's actually a very effective president.
I've noticed he is someone who tends to deflect praise to others. Some people are like that. It may be a factor. His speech defect but also uses the opportunity of the spotlight to highlight contributions of others a lot.
.That may make him seem like he isn't "winning" so much in debates because he doesn’t big himself up so much as Trump. However it's the sort of thing that might attract undecided voters.
The ongoing media circus may actually be benefiting him a bit for those voters.
WHY DID GEORGE CLOONEY ASK HIM TO STEP DOWN - AGEISM PERHAPS AS THE ONLY REASON HE GIVES IS THE NATURAL PROGRESSION OF AGEING - SO WHAT ABOUT CLINT EASTWOOD STILL DIRECTING MOVIES AGED 93?
In his peice George Clooney has only one argument, that Biden is a senior citizen. Would George Clooney say Clint Eastwood has to stop directing movies and movie companies should stop hiring him because he is 93?
Here is Clint Eastwood as interviewed in 2018 when he was already 87, or two years older than Biden will be at the end of his second term.
Clint Eastwood spoke like a senior citizen of course, because he is a senior citizen. But that doesn't mean he can't direct movies.
Compare Clint Eastwood in 1974
Aged 44
He is still making movies now aged 93.
It is not easy to direct a movie. Probably at least as difficult as being a president.
George Clooney isn't claiming Alzheimers or Parkinsons or any medical condition. He says:
QUOTE But the one battle he cannot win is the fight against time. None of us can. It’s devastating to say it, but the Joe Biden I was with three weeks ago at the fund-raiser was not the Joe “big F-ing deal” Biden of 2010. He wasn’t even the Joe Biden of 2020. He was the same man we all witnessed at the debate.
. Opinion | George Clooney: I Love Joe Biden. But We Need a New Nominee.
It's not surprising he was the same as for the debate as this was immediately after Biden came back from going through 100 time zones and had that bad cold that he had at the time of the debate.
And of course Biden is a senior citizen. Here is a short clip showing how he has aged from 1974 to 2022.
This is that video of Biden in 2010 when he told obama “big F-ing deal” on an open mike:
BIDEN - WHEN YOU GET KNOCKED DOWN YOU GET BACK UP
Biden today saying when you get knocked down you get back up.
Shorter clip from it:
Yes he is older. You expect him to be older.
Here he is talking to NATO.
Here is Biden on "'Good Morning Joe"
QUOTE STARTS
The bottom line is, we're not going anywhere.
I am not going anywhere.
I wouldn't be running if I didn't absolutely believe that I am the best candidate to beat
Donald Trump. In 2024 we had a democratic nominating process where the voters spoke clearly.
I won 14 million of those votes, et cetera. So I just want -- I not only believe that from the beginning, but I wanted to reassert and demonstrate that it's true.
And I'm going to be doing that all through this week and from here on.
Nancy Pelosi
As questioned by Jaala Brown for CBS news on her way to her office in the corridor, some of the things Nancy Pelosi said repeatedly asked by her
QUOTE STARTS (NOT A COMPLETE TRANSCRIPT)
Q. Do you think that President Biden is the best to defeat president Donald Trump?
A. Why would you think that I would have that interview here?
I think the president is great and there are some misrepresentations of what what I have
said.
I never said he should reconsider his decision.
The decision is the president's.
I don't know what's happened to the New York Times that they make up news, but if that's why you're here it isn't true.
Q. Do you think that President Biden should step aside?
And similarly with another reporter
I am not making any comments in the hallway about the fate of our nation.
I think he can win.
“Am I speaking English to you? I’m not going to be making any statements about any of that right now in the hallway..” Rachel Scott (@rachelvscott) on X
So with Pelosi, the media are manufacturing a big story from Pelosi saying over and over that the decision is for Biden.
Actually if anything this seems to be having the opposite effect. The general public are not necessarily going to be influenced by the media in the way you think they would be or by the debate. Despite all this fuss by the media, the debate may have actually given Biden a bit of a boost if anything. In one careful poll looking at the same people before and after there was a 3% reduction in the lead Trump had between before and after the debate. A 1% increase in support for Biden and 2% reduction for Trump.
Voters won't necessarily respond the way that the media expect them to. And Biden is responding to all this by being more out there, more engaging with the media and the broader public outside of his rallies, and showing himself publicly as being presidential. So it may well end up favouring him.
With George Clooney, it is just people who are easily influenced by the media and by appearances. Not surprising that this would include actors.
He didn't write this piece after Biden spoke to the celebrities before the debate. He didn't write it after the debate either but only after many other media stories from the NY Times and others.
He is clearly influenced by the media or he'd have written this two weeks ago.
I think many Americans have a soft spot for someone who is beaten down and gets back up again like Biden is doing. So that may help in his favour.
He says the same thing in the rally mentioned at the start of this blog post.
: LIVE: Biden speaks live at Detroit rally after high-stakes news conference
“I learned a long time ago. When you are knocked down you get back up.”
at: 13:50
HOW TO DETECT BIAS BY REWRITING TITLES AND ARTICLES TO BIAS THE OTHER SIDE OF THEIR ARGUMENT
You can see how biased the headlines are by rewriting them to favour the majority view:
. Trio of Senate Democrats doubt Biden can win
Rewrite to:
"44 senators tell fellow Senate Democrats they think Biden can win".
Same story, more honest but would not get many clicks.
For another example, this is a very biased piece from CBS news. You can tell by the words they use:
“Four Democratic sources with knowledge tell CBS News that they expect dozens of Democratic lawmakers over the next 48 hours to issue statements calling for President Biden to step out of the race.”
. Potentially dozens of Democrats expected to call on Biden to step aside after NATO conference
But the US Congress has more than 21 dozen Democrat lawmakers. What about the dozens of lawmakers who support him?
We know this includes Kamala Harris, Chuck Schumer, Gavin Newsom and Nancy Pelosi. Who else stands with them? These articles only give lists of those opposed.
They don't mention even the ones we already know support Biden and whatever he decides to do which is clearly to stay on.
"stubborn opposition from the president"
- the author is telling the reader that the president is mistaken and he should step down and anything he says is stubborn even if the vast majority of legislators support him.
Even if 200 lawmakers support him and a few dozen say he should step down the author of this article is telling me that Biden is being "stubborn" i.e. that he should step down. That makes no sense.
Why isn't it
"stubborn democrats calling on Biden to step down"?
Another example:
" insular Biden team "
- again telling the reader that Biden is wrong and the ones saying he should step down are right. Why isn't it
"insular Democrats asking Biden to step down"?
It can help to develop an antenna to this sort of thing. When I detect that the author of an article is telling me how to think about the topic they are reporting then that alone is reason to look somewhere else for unbiased reporting.
Think how differently the article would read if the author had referred to those asking Biden to step down as insular and stubborn. But there is no logical reason to apply those particular adjectives to Biden and not to the ones asking him to step down. That's how to detect this sort of biased language.
. Potentially dozens of Democrats expected to call on Biden to step aside after NATO conference
There are 213 Democrats in the House and 47 in the Senate, 260 total. The press are constantly running stories about the very few who say Biden should step down and say almost nothing about the views of the vast majority with Biden.
It is very biased. I think we can assume the others support Biden as the press report any opposed to him. Most asking him to stand down have been in the House. If you read the story 2 of those 3 also didn't confirm the rumours. There have been several misreported stories so this may be mistaken too. Only Tester released a statement and it just said his "bad debate performance raised serious questions". Didn't say he can't win.
Biden has never been a strong orator or flashy president. He has always had a speech impediment since a child, originally a stutter, he hesitates to look for the right word more than most. It is not a thinking impediment just a talking impediment. He has always been very good at working across the house.
BIDEN’S LETTER TO HIS PARTY IN CONGRESS
Biden's strong letter to his party said he is not going anywhere. His vice president is solidly behind him as are the ones people list as contenders for instance Gavin Newsom has said all along he is solidly behind him.
It's rather bizarre all of this, given the very short term and small effect of the debate on voting preferences, a tiny effect for less than a week.
Anyway, Biden had private talks with members of his party and wrote a letter to his party saying that he was selected by the voters in a democratic process and that he had almost no opposition.
He says how can they be the party supporting democracy if they ignore the democratic process for selecting their own leader?
He says he wouldn't run for president again if he didn't think he could win against Trump.
QUOTE STARTS
I have had extensive conversations with the leadership of the party, elected officials, rank and file members, and most importantly, Democratic voters over these past 10 days or so. I have heard the concerns that people have — their good faith fears and worries about what is at stake in this election. I am not blind to them. Believe me, I know better than anyone the responsibility and the burden the nominee of our party carries. I carried it in 2020 when the fate of our nation was at stake. I also know these concerns come from a place of real respect for my lifetime of public service and my record as President, and I have been moved by the expressions of affection for me from so many who have known me well and supported me over the course of my public life.
...
I can respond to all this by saying clearly and unequivocally: I wouldn’t be running again if I did not absolutely believe I was the best person to beat Donald Trump in 2024.
We had a Democratic nomination process and the voters have spoken clearly and decisively. I received over 14 million votes, 87% of the votes cast across the entire nominating process. I have nearly 3,000 delegates, making me the presumptive nominee of our party by a wide margin.
This was a process open to anyone who wanted to run. Only three people chose to challenge me. One fared so badly that he left the primaries to run as an independent. Another attacked me for being too old and was soundly defeated. The voters of the Democratic Party have voted. They have chosen me to be the nominee of the party.
Do we now just say this process didn’t matter? That the voters don’t have a say?
I decline to do that. I feel a deep obligation to the faith and the trust the voters of the Democratic Party have placed in me to run this year. It was their decision to make. Not the press, not the pundits, not the big donors, not any selected group of individuals, no matter how well intentioned. The voters — and the voters alone — decide the nominee of the Democratic Party. How can we stand for democracy in our nation if we ignore it in our own party? I cannot do that. I will not do that.
I have no doubt that I — and we — can and will beat Donald Trump. We have an historic record of success to run on. From creating over 15 million jobs (including 200,000 just last month), reaching historic lows on unemployment, to revitalizing American manufacturing with 800,000 jobs, to protecting and expanding affordable health care, to rebuilding America’s roads, bridges, highways, ports and airports, and water systems, to beating Big Pharma and lowering the cost of prescription drugs, including $35 a month insulin for seniors, to providing student debt relief for nearly 5 million Americans to an historic investment in combatting climate change.
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After January 6th, Trump has proven that he is unfit to ever hold the office of President. We can never allow him anywhere near that office again. And we never will.
My fellow Democrats — we have the record, the vision, and the fundamental commitment to America’s freedoms and our Democracy to win.
The question of how to move forward has been well-aired for over a week now. And it’s time for it to end. We have one job. And that is to beat Donald Trump. We have 42 days to the Democratic Convention and 119 days to the general election. Any weakening of resolve or lack of clarity about the task ahead only helps Trump and hurts us. It is time to come together, move forward as a unified party, and defeat Donald Trump.
You might like to listen to Biden giving his speech to the NATO summit. YouTube
The whole thing is not very logical and is mainly media driven.
FAR TOO EARLY FOR ACCURATE POLLING
It is far too early to do any accurate polling and the polls are really only much of a guide for a landslide.
To get a rough idea, 538's election forecast hovers around 50 : 50. Sometimes it shows a slight advantage to Trump sometimes to Biden.
But the uncertainty is so great that down to the 1 in 20 level, it ranges between a bit over 70 seats to Trump to a bit over 70 seats to Biden. Which are clearly not realistic possibilities and shows that it's very hard to get a good forecast.
You can also see that the debate seems to have had a very small effect on the results - adding a few percent to Trump’s chance of winning for less than a week. Which could easily also just be a coincidence.
The blue and red lines are just averages of all the mock elections. 19 in 20 of them are in that lightly shaded area. 1 in 20 are outside the light coloured range. Though they don't say the 95% is near certain to be two standard deviations by the 68, 95, 99.7 rule for 1, 2 and 3 standard deviations.
538 don’t explain but the darker range is near certain to be the 68 in that rule, i.e. that 68% of the results fall within that range.
This means roughly 2 in 3 of their simulated random elections has between 135 and 404 electoral college votes for Biden. 1 in 3 is outside that range.
19 in 20 are within the wider range which by counting pixels is between 79 and 467 electoral college votes for Biden. 1 in 20 outside that range.
This means 1 in 40 had Biden with more than 467 electoral college votes, i.e. 538-467 = only 71 electoral college votes for Trump, and 1 in 40 had Biden with less than 79 electoral college votes, both of which are beyond incredible which shows they have very wide ranges of uncertainty in the polling data at present.
This wide range doesn't mean that there is any possibility that Biden could have only 79 votes or Trump only 71. It means that the error in the polls for individual states for the electoral register is so large that they can't say much at this stage.
Later on when the error range is much less it may be more informative. But only really going to tell us much if it shows a huge landslide for either party. If it is closer than a landslide either way, the polls tell us very little.
So this is not at all accurate and just giving a very very vague indication of who might be ahead - and then it's based on polling which is inaccurate this afar ahead with no manifestos yet, candidates not confirmed and the campaigns not started.
FAR TOO EARLY FOR POLLS - CAMPAIGN STARTS ON LABOUR DAY SEPTEMBER 2ND - AND SO FAR NEITHER SIDE HAS SELECTED THEIR CANDIDATE OR RELEASED THEIR MANIFESTO
The only people who could decide this early are confirmed Democrats or Trumpists who will vote for their candidate based on party affiliation or just because they like the guy and vague ideas about the sorts of policies they might implement.
Anyone who is on the fence based on policies has nothing to go on yet.
Anyone who is in the middle and persuadable either way who doesn't bother reading the manifestors and is easily persuaded by campaigning or how well their guy "wins" in debates is likely to change their preferences.
Meanwhile the pollsters also have to compensate for people influenced by Trump to not believe the elections are fair who likely also don't answer poll questions - and would they turn out to vote to compensate or not? And if they believe the elections are unfair does this mean they vote for Trump or might they still believe they are unfair but vote for Biden? Or do they believe they are unfair and so not bother voting?
So - have the pollsters compensated enough for that and could they have over-compensated?
But this shouldn't be seen as how people will vote it is very hard to work out voting intention anyway and most of the undecideds won't know how they will vote so they can't find out using polls what people themselves don't know.
REAGEN’S BAD DAY IN HIS FIRST DEBATE AGAINST MONDALE IN 1984 AND HIS JOKE IN THE SECOND DEBATE
Reagen got laughs in his second debate when he joked:
“I will not make age an issue of this campaign. I am not going to exploit, for political purposes, my opponent’s youth and inexperience.”
Reagen and the Age issue: YouTube
. Reagan and the age issue
At the time Reagan was 73 and his opponent Mondale was 56.
Reagen went on to win of course.
Actually Reagen did develop Alzheimers' disease, diagnosed in 1994, and died of it in 2004, and he may have had early stages in 1984 a decade earlier a study here suggesting he may have had the early signs.
So he may also be an example of a president who led the US very effectively while in early stages of Alzheimers. It progresses slowly and people with Alzheimers at its early stages can still be very high functioning and Ronald Reagen may be an example of that.
There are ways to slow it down and delay onset of it. Also we have potential treatments on the horizon too.
. Can You Slow the Progression of Alzheimer's Disease? - Premier Neurology & Wellness Center
So if some time in the future we find that some US president does have Alzheimers’ that also need not be a disqualification.
But Biden is just elderly, just a senior citizen, and has no signs of Alzhemiers.
This last section is an extract from my previous debunk on this topic.
See also my
THE VICE PRESIDENT CAN STEP IN IF THE PRESIDENT IS INCAPACITATED - MORE LIKELY TO HAPPEN FOR SHORT PERIODS OF TIME FOR A SENIOR CITIZEN PRESIDENT AS FOR THE 85 MINUTES OF BIDEN’S COLONOSCOPY - BUT NO CHANGE IN MANIFESTO
The vice president does step in if the president is incapacitated. But their job is to continue doing whatever the president would have done. Kamala Harris has already been acting president for 85 minutes while Biden had a colonoscopy.
. Kamala Harris: First woman to get US presidential powers (briefly)
In principle she had all presidential powers. She could have signed a new executive order say. But in reality she would only do whatever Biden wanted her to do.
SUMMARY
Biden is a healthy senior citizen.
By his yearly neurological examination, Biden does not have Parkinson’s disease or any kind of age related cognitive issue
Biden walks stiffly with small steps because of arthritis in his spine and a damaged left foot. He does stretching exercises and the condition is stable
He is an effective leader with verbal slips:
World leaders agree Biden is leading the NATO alliance very effectively as a US president and has a lot of wisdom, understanding and detailed background knowledge to bring to the task.
Verbal slips are common in elderly people. They are to do with word producing rather than semantics, how we think.
When Biden didn’t complete sentences in the debate it was because the 2 minute timer ran out sometimes immediately after a verbal slip. He completed his sentences when he had time.
Many democrats support Biden:
the media focus on a small minority with views different from the majority
by one careful study the debate likely had very little effect but if anything may have shifted the voters slightly to Biden
This is an unprecedented election. Biden can easily surprise everyone much like Truman did when he beat Dewey in 1948
Many people who continue to be very good at their jobs into their 90s, even though most retire in their 60s - example the actor and producer Clint Eastwood - producing a movie is likely as difficult in its own way as leading a country and the NATO alliance.
PLANS FOR FUTURE BLOG POSTS ON THE REPUBLICAN PLATFORM / AGENDA 47 / PROJECT 2025 AND TO IGNORE ANY OF THE CLAIMS THAT EITHER PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE WOULD START A WORLD WAR IF ELECTED - THAT’S JUST CAMPAIGNING
So hopefully some of you are less scared now :).
I plan follow up blog posts about how there isn’t a risk of either president starting a world war either.
I also plan one on project 2025. If that scares you please see my: Far right Republican Project 2025 is mostly an illegal fantasy - most of it can’t be done at all - “Schedule F” would face legal challenges and likely be struck down
It is an impossible legal "fantasy" in the words of a constitutional expert. I did this tweet thread to help
Thread on project 2025 by Robert Walker BSc, fact checker for scared people (@DoomsdayDebunks) on X or all in one page: Thread by @DoomsdayDebunks on Thread Reader App
Also if worried about the Supreme court immunity decision please see my:
These are all topics that our debunkers help with on our Facebook group.
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