China’s live drills are political defiance after Pelosi’s visit not military preparation - to regain credibility, save face, and try to undermine Taiwan’s claims of sovereignty - and why China bluffs
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[This is a post from Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan in 2022 but it’s useful generally for explaining why it’s so militarily impossible for China to invade Taiwan - copied here because Quora won’t let me save changes to it any more because they set a limit on the size of a bog post]
Copied from: https://debunkingdoomsday.quora.com/China-s-live-drills-are-political-defiance-after-Pelosi-s-visit-not-military-preparation-to-regain-credibility-save-f
First here is an infographic summary of why China can’t invade Taiwan.
[NOTE for some reason Quora has blurred out all the images in this post. It’s clearly a bug. They are just things like maps, photos of planes, D-day landing, etc etc, nothing here by way of violence, nudity, or copyright issues]
Click to unblur.
Original D-Day planing map - still largest sea attack ever
A Chinese invasion of Taiwan is like 10 D-days at once - except Taiwan sees everything they do and has modern cruise missiles.D-Day: 156,115 soldiers.
100 mile journey from Isle of Wight to Normandy, took slower ships 24 hours.
Germans only spotted the ships when they approached Normandy shores
To invade Taiwan China needs:
1 to 2 million soldiers 81 mile journey.
Slower ships 10 hours.
Taiwan sees the ships as soon as they set sail.
But will see China preparing the army, loading ships etc weeks in advance.
Images:
I’ll come to that later, but I’ll open with a comment from Wen Lii (@wen1949) director of Matsu office, a tiny island archeapelago which belongs to Taiwan, 20 km from mainland China. “China won’t launch WWIII”.
“We focus on keeping people safe during these displays, instead of panicking over proclamations of full war, which would require months to prepare…
Communist officials are encouraged to issue violent threats, but not expected to follow through…
,,,
So no, China won’t launch WWIII”
His complete tweet thread all in one page here: Thread by @wen1949 on Thread Reader App (useful if you have blocked twitter).
Or as sepearate tweets:
https://twitter.com/wen1949/status/1555096194963353600
This shows where the Matsu islands are., right next to China
Matsu map File:ROC Matsu.png - Wikimedia Commons
Matsu map 2. Taiwan
Blue tears Matsu File:發光的藍眼淚.
TITLES OF SECTIONS LIKE MINI ABSTRACTS - SUMMARIZE WHAT THEY SAY IN THE TITLE
I write titles of sections like mini abstracts - you can get a first idea of the article by reading just the titles and looking at the graphics - then drill into any section of special interest.
TAIWAN COULD HIT MAINLAND CHINA WITH ITS MISSILES TOO - BUT IT ISN’T AT WAR SO WON’T BE FIRING BACK
You might get the impression - because China fires these missiles into the sea near Taiwan, and Taiwan does nothing back, that it’s only China has ballistic missiles.
But Taiwn has them too. Also cruise missiles. Taiwan is a very wealthy country and its military is way advanced over the Ukrainians who are largely dependent on NATO weapons now - though their indigenous Neptune cruise missiles were also very effective. But this is what Taiwan has
https://twitter.com/Missile_Defense/status/982273087528775680
From the map at top left you can see it has shorter range ballistic missiles that can reach ships in the strait - or if positioned on one of their islands can actually hit the mainland.
They also have cruise missiles that can reach deep into China.
Taiwan makes its own fighter jets which they developed themselves, after the US, under pressure from China, didn’t sell it their own advanced F-20 and F-16 fighter jets.
. AIDC F-CK-1 Ching-kuo - Wikipedia
PUTIN DIDN’T LAUNCH WW3 AND THE USA WAS EXPECTING THE INVASION OF UKRAINE
1. Putin didn't launch WW3, he just bluffed like China bluffs.
2. US had clear intelligence even before the Winter Olympics Putin would invade.
RUSSIA JUST HAD TO DRIVE ACROSS THE BORDER - CHINA HAS HOURS OF SEA JOURNEY BEFOR ETHEY COULD SET FOOT ON TAIWAN
3. FAR easier to drive over border to Ukraine than sail for hours across the Taiwan strait to 14 small well defended invasion beaches.
Putin’s army just drove through a border post like this. Russia has roads and railways that cross into Ukraine and were essential for their invasion.
Tanks driving into Belarus t=34
Meanwhile this is China’s situation. I’ll come back to this later.
YOUNGEST CHINESE SOLDIERS WHO HAVE EVER BEEN IN COMBAT - 51, YOUNGEST SAILORS, 54, VERY MINOR EVENT SEIZING AN UNINHABITED ISLAND - SOLDIERS AND SAILORS ON THE FRONG LINE NEED TO BE SUPER-FIT LIKE 100 METER SPRINTERS, SO HAVE TO BE YOUNG - NOBODY YOUNG WITH ANY COMBAT EXPERIENCE
China does large exercises & fighting words.
But youngest Chinese sailor to see combat is 54 (small skirmish to capture uninhabited island in 1988)
Youngest soldier to see combat, 51
Least militant of all great powers.
Frontline soldiers must be young, like 100 m sprinters.
Text on graphic: China does large military exercises and uses fighting words but is least militant of all the great powers.
No wars this century.
US and Russia fought many wars this century.
Last Chinese sailor to see active combat: 1988
If 18 then, 54 in 2024 - 3 ships to cover one uinhabited island from Vietnam.
Last Chinese soldier to see active combat: 1991
If 18 then, would be 51 in 2024.
Conflicts from 1979 to 1991 along border with Vietnam.
Chinese soldiers haven’t fought anyone since the Sino -Vietnam conflicts which lasted from 1979 to 1991 in various engagements. If 18 then would be 51 today in 2024.
, Sino-Vietnamese conflicts (1979–1991) - Wikipedia
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN CHINA / TAIWAN AND RUSSIA/ UKRAINE - CHINA IS FAR MORE FOCUSED ON SOFT POWER THIS CENTURY AND HASN’T FOUGHT ANYONE SINCE 1979, OR A SHORT NAVAL ENGAGEMENT IN 1988
China is communist and it's already conquered all its previous empire apart from Taiwan.
Russia is Christian / Oligarchy and Russia has lost most of the former USSR.
China hasn't fought any wars since 1988 and it is focused on soft power, the power of attraction of being an attractive country for other nations. China is even more focusedon soft power than the USA.
Russia has fought many wars this century and is focused on coercion and especially after this war started Putin seems to have lost all interest in soft power.
Taiwan is separated from China by 81 miles of sea and boats travel more slowly than cars it's 10 hours travel time and one and a half hours even in a fast destroyer, there is no possibility of any surprise and ships crossing the sea would be very vulnerable.
Ukraine is connected to Russia by road and rail and it was just a matter of minutes to drive over the border into Ukraine.
China would need to transport any munitions, tamks, other supplies to Taiwan by sea - destroyers couldn’t move all the supplies needed, they’d need cargo ships and basically anything they can get a hand on and an urgent priority would be capturing a port in Taiwan in order to offload the supplies using cranes as fast as possible.
Russia could just load them onto railway lines
Ukraine exports low cost wheat to weaker economies in the Middle East and Africa and is sthe main supplier of wheat for some countries like Lebanon.
Taiwan makes more than half the world’s semiconductor chips and is the sole supplier of chips for Apple. - and China doesn’t have the capability to make the most modern 7 nm chips, like Taiwanese TMC does. The Chineses SMIC is stuck with “yesterday’s technology” of 14 nm chips which are much slower and you can’t fit so much on a chipo.
Taiwan is a wealthy country, three times the GDP of Ukraine with half the population.
. Taiwan GDP - 2022 Data - 2023 Forecast - 1980-2021 Historical - Chart - News
. Ukraine GDP - 2022 Data - 2023 Forecast - 1987-2021 Historical - Chart - News
TAIWAN IS VERY WELL EQUIPPED ALREADY WITH FRIGATES, DESTROYERS, ITS FIGHTER JETS WHICH IT MAKES ITSELF, PARTIOT AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS ETC
long distance weapons that can already reach deep into China
a capable navy with frigates and destroyers
280 fighter jets that can fly from underground hangars (Ukraien only has 50 Mig29s and they don’t have underground hangars)
Patriot air defense systems (Ukraine only has the old soviet era S-300s and S-400s which are much less capable which is partly why its cities are so vulnerable, though US is sending it new NASAMs soon nearly as good as Patriot),
Its own cruise missiles with a range of 1,200 km.
CHINA WOULD NEED AN INVASION ARMY OF 1 TO 2 MILLION - LIKE DOING TEN SIMULTANEOUS D-DAYS
D-day remains the largest operation of this sort ever, and this would be ten times as large. Nobody has ever tried even a signfiicantly smallier invasion than D-day like this with modern weapons.
[D-day is when the UK with the allies crossed the English Channel from near the Isle of Wight to the Normandy beaches to start the process of retaking France from Germany]
It's like doing ten D-days at once,.
But unlike the situation for D-Day , Taiwan knows the Chinese are on their way as soon as they start, sees them loading ships etc weeks before.
Original D-Day planing map - still largest sea attack ever
A Chinese invasion of Taiwan is like 10 D-days at once - except Taiwan sees everything they do and has modern cruise missiles.D-Day: 156,115 soldiers.
100 mile journey from Isle of Wight to Normandy, took slower ships 24 hours.
Germans only spotted the ships when they approached Normandy shores
To invade Taiwan China needs:
1 to 2 million soldiers 81 mile journey.
Slower ships 10 hours.
Taiwan sees the ships as soon as they set sail.
But will see China preparing the army, loading ships etc weeks in advance.
Images:
. Chart of the Normandy Landings, 6 June... © Colin Smith
[more about that chart in description here: D-Day map, Southwick House]
HOW MANY SOLDIERS WOULD CHINA NEED FOR THE INVASION? - VARIOUS ESTIMATES ALL IN THE RANGE OF 1 TO 2 MILLION AS A MINIMUM
The 1 to 2 million figure is from here:
Commanders planning offensive operations typically want a 3-to-1 superiority over the defender. If the terrain is unfavorable, they might want a 5-to-1 ratio (and sometimes more). Assuming Taiwan had 450,000 defenders, the PLA general in charge would therefore want to have at least 1.35 million men, but probably more like 2.25 million. Obviously, this is a simplistic formula. But without access to top secret Chinese military studies and plans, a logical estimate is better than the alternative.
Here is another similar estimate by Harlan Ullman writing for the Atlantic Council. Apparently the US miltiary drafted a plan for a campaign to capture Taiwan towards the end of WW2. They planned to use 400,000 soldiers and marines in 4,000 ships against a defending force of 30,000 Japanese soldiers.
He estimates that today China would need 1.2 million soldiers and a total active force of 2 million for the 3 to 1 ratio.
The definitive document on what size force would be required to seize Taiwan in a full-out landing was drafted by the US military in the late stages of World War II in the Pacific. In 1944, Operation Causeway was the US plan for retaking Formosa, as it was then called, from 30,000 starving Japanese soldiers. The planned invasion force was double the size of Operation Overlord, the Normandy landing: 400,000 soldiers and marines deployed on 4,000 ships. With a potential defending force of 450,000 Taiwanese today, using the traditional three-to-one ratio of attackers to defenders taught at war colleges, China would need to deploy over 1.2 million soldiers (out of a total active force of over 2 million). Many thousands of ships would be required to land all those forces, and doing so would take weeks. How many occupation forces would be required to pacify the Taiwanese? Surely the lessons of Afghanistan and Iraq are not lost on the PLA leadership.
That 3:2 or 5:1 ratio is not taking account of Taiwan’s 2.5 million reservistss and Taiwan would know that China is going to invade 60 days before the invasion began so they would have some time to arm those reservists too.
Easton estimates that Taiwanese, American, and Japanese leaders will know that the PLA is preparing for a cross-strait war more than 60 days before hostilities begin. They will know for certain that an invasion will happen more than 30 days before the first missiles are fired. This will give the Taiwanese ample time to move much of their command and control infrastructure into hardened mountain tunnels, move their fleet out of vulnerable ports, detain suspected agents and intelligence operatives, litter the ocean with sea mines, disperse and camouflage army units across the country, put the economy on war footing, and distribute weapons to Taiwan’s 2.5 million reservists.
. Taiwan Can Win a War With China
The reservists are voluntary soldiers who served for four months and then remain on the list as soldiers that could be called back to active duty. They get a few days extra training a year.
So they don’t have much training.
See: Reconceiving Taiwan’s Reserve Forces
BUT IT’S FAR HARDER FOR CHINA THAN D-DAY BECAUSE OF THE ASYMMETRY OF MODERN WEAPONS THAT SMALL RELATIVELY INEXPENSIVE CRUISE MISSILES CAN SINK THE FLAGSHIP OF THE RUSSIAN BALTIC FLEET
But it's far worse than that. The Ukrainians sunk the flagship of the Russian Baltic fleet with just two sea skimming Neptune cruise missiles.
China's destroyers likely are more alert than Russia, but what about the thousands or tens of thousands of small boats?
Nobody has ever conducted a war like that with modern weapons on both sides
Were it to occur, the battle for Taiwan would involve other complexities that are vital but squishy, meaning they cannot be satisfactorily quantified. It would be the first country-on-country war where both attacker and defender had modern, long range missiles in their arsenals capable of cracking open ships and devastating land targets with precision from hundreds of kilometers away. No one actually knows what such a fight would look like because it’s never happened before.
PROFESSOR O’BRIEN - THE THOUGH OF CHINA INVADING TAIWAN IS A MASSACRE FOR CHINA
Professor Philip D. O’Brien (professor of strategic studies at St Andrews University in Scotland) put it like this:
Getting a force of that size across the 110 miles (177 kilometers) of the Taiwan Strait would be a long, dangerous mission during which those vessels carrying the troops and equipment would be sitting ducks.
“The thought about China invading Taiwan, that’s a massacre for the Chinese navy,” said Phillips O’Brien, professor of strategic studies at the University of St. Andrews in Scotland.
“Taiwan is mass-producing these things. And they’re small, it’s not like (China) can take them all out,”
“What’s cheap is a surface-to-ship missile, what’s expensive is a ship.”
. China has the power to take Taiwan, but it would cost an extremely bloody price - Tren.News
Taiwan is on track to make 1000 shore to ship missiles by 2026.
. Ministry ramps up missile production - Taipei Times
In more detail, commenting on the sinking of the Moskva:
It was in 1982, in the waters around the Falkland Islands, that the ability of anti-ship missiles to destroy modern warships was brought home to much of the world. … Most notably the destroyer HMS Sheffield, which had been commissioned only seven years before, was destroyed after being hit by only one French-made Exocet missile.
…
The Moskva was not some auxiliary warship on the fringes of action. It was the flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet and the pride of the Russian Navy. Almost three times as large as the Sheffield, the Moskva had recently been modernised and was equipped with the most advance protective systems Russia can provide. Still, this powerful vessel was destroyed by two home grown Ukrainian Neptune anti-ship missiles, which had never been fired in anger before this war and were being operated by a military with little or no maritime expertise.
…
Instead of being confronted by anti-ship capabilities controlled by an Argentinian Junta or a small, inexperienced Ukrainian military, ships at war in the waters of Asia would face walls of anti-ship missiles – not just the two fired at Moskva, or the one at the Sheffield. If China was rash enough to attempt an amphibious landing on Taiwan, or the US (or UK) decided in time of war to sail carrier battlegroups into waters in range of volleys of anti-ship missiles, the results would lead to devastating losses on the attacking sides.
TAIWAN IS FAR HARDER TO INVADE THAN NORMANDY BECAUSE OF ITS SMALL INVASION BEACHES OVERLOOKED BY HIGH GROUND OR SKYSCRAPERS
Taiwan is very hard to invade from the sea, few suitable beaches for an invasion overlooked by earthquake hardened skyscrapers and high ground.
Unlike Normandy, the coastal terrain here is a defender’s dream come true. Taiwan has only 14 small invasion beaches, and they are bordered by cliffs and urban jungles. Linkou Beach near Taipei provides an illustrative example. Towering directly over the beach is Guanyin Mountain (615 meters). On its right flank is the Linkou Plateau (250 meters), and to its left is Yangming Mountain (1,094 meters). Structures made of steel-reinforced concrete blanket the surrounding valleys. Taiwan gets hits by typhoons and earthquakes all the time, so each building and bridge is designed to withstand severe buffeting.
And they would need thousands of ships to transport a million or more people to the island.
If the PLA ground force was a million or more men, then we might expect an armada of thousands or even tens of thousands of ships to deliver them. The vast majority of these ships would not be from the PLA Navy. Vessels like tugs, oilers, barges, ferries, fishing boats, semi-submersible platforms, container carriers, and heavy roll-on/roll-off cargo ships would be mobilized. According to Chinese military doctrine, many ships would be deployed as decoys, conducting feints to distract attention away from the main assault.
TAIWAN’S UNDERGROUND BASE NEAR TAIPEI DUG IN A MOUNTAIN IS LIKE AZOVSTAL STEELWORK BUNKERS - BUT BIG ENOUGH FO UNDERGROUND HANGARS FOR 200 FIGHTER JETS, AND REPAIR FACILITIES, REFUELING, AND QUARTERS WHERE THE GOVERNMENT CAN LIVE SECURE FOR MONTHS WITH ALL THE FOOD / WATER ETC THEY NEED
Taiwan has an underground base - imagine Azovstal steelworks bunkers, but large enough for 200 fighter jets + refuelling stations, spare parts, engineers, and the Taiwanese government, food, water all hidden in limestone mountains near Taipei and able to hold out for months?
Their jet fighters at a pinch can fly straight out of the hangars not even using the runways they lead onto. They can land and take off from highways and practice to repair their runways in hours. Protected with Patriot air defence systems.
And Taiwan has only 14 small invasion beaches. As soon as they see the ships approaching they have fast sea mine laying ships to protect them. China would be under attack all the time from ground artillery if they try to clear them with mine sweepers.
TAIWAN’S ASYMMETRICAL WAR PLAN TO DEFEAT CHINA - STARTS BY RAPIDLY LAYING SEA MINES AROUND TAIWAN AND IN FRONT OF ITS 14 SMALL INVASION BEACHES AS SOON AS THE CHINESE FLEET SETS OFF
QUOTE Drew Thompson was the Director for China, Taiwan, and Mongolia in the Office of the Secretary of Defense from 2011 to 2018. He is now a Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore.
https://warontherocks.com/2018/10/hope-on-the-horizon-taiwans-radical-new-defense-concept/
This is a summary of how it works:
From his article Winning the Fight Taiwan Cannot Afford to Lose
To paraphrase key points in Drew Thompson’s article outlining the new defence plan in “War on the Rocks”:
Large surface vessels will use Taiwan’s anti-ship cruise missiles, the Hsiung Feng 2 and 3 along with the Harpoon missiles. These ships include French-built Lafayette class frigates, U.S.-built Kidd-class destroyers, and U.S.-designed Perry class frigates.They also have fast attack Tuojiang class catamarans with 16 missiles each.
Taiwan has more of its Hsiung Feng anti-ship missiles mounted on trucks which disperse to survive the attack and will fire back at the Chinese ships throughout the attempted invasion
Taiwan’s navy will rapidly deploy mines in the deep and shallow waters off suspected landing beaches - they have built a new fleet of automated, fast minelaying ships for this mission. Meanwhile they can install mine launching rails on surface vessels.
Fast attack boats and truck-launched anti-ship cruise missiles target key ships in the invasion force, particularly amphibious landing ships carrying the initial wave of PLA assault troops as well as roll-on-roll-off vessels carrying follow-on vehicles and armor.
Taiwan Army lays beach mines, and targets enemy shipss, including minesweepers.
Precision artillery will target any vessels and troops reaching shore, using area effects weapons such as indigenously built multiple launch rocket systems with cluster munitions, and attack helicopters including AH-64E Apaches.
TIntegrated air defenses, including Patriot PAC-3 batteries and domestically manufactured Tian Kung-2 surface to air missiles defend air bases and critical infrastructure from Chinese fighter jets
Smaller mobile air defense systems, such as U.S.-provided Avenger systems prevent the PLA Air Force from providing close-in air support to their invading forces.
See Hope on the Horizon: Taiwan’s Radical New Defense Concept
TAIWAN IS WELL EQUIPPED, FAR BETTER THAN UKRAINE EVEN NOW AFTER ALL THE NATO SUPPLIES
Taiwan has a capable navy with many frigates and destroyers and fast catamarans each equipped with 16 ship to ship cruise missiles.
It also has trucks with coast to ship cruise missiles in the jungles inland able to fire on any approaching ships.
Trucks with shore to ship cruise missiles can hide in Taiwan's vast sub-tropical evergreen forest
CHINA’S PROBLEM SUPPLYING FRONT LINE FORCES IN TAIWAN WITH MUNITIONS - RUSSIA STRUGGLES TO KEEP GOING WITH HiMARS DESTROYING DEPOTS NEAR THE FRONT LINE SO IT NEEDS TO USE LORRIES - CHINA HAS TO MOVE VAST AMOUNTS OF MUNITIONS 81 MILES ACROSS THE SEA - ONE EXPERT SAYS IT WOULD NEED TO CAPTURE A PORT AND USE CRANES TO OFFLOAD CARGO SHIPS OF MUNITIONS
Then we’ve seen how Russia’s invasion stalled because it couldn’t get enough munitions to the front line, both for the battle of Kyiv and now for the battle of Donbas, Kherson etc.
China has to move vast amounts of munition continuously across the Taiwanese strait to sustain a war. Indeed according to one of the analysts I read, it couldn’t do it with just amphibian landing craft shuttling back and forth. It would need cargo ships and docks with cranes to unload the munitions
So, the key to an invasion of Tiawan would be to take the ports because the invasion beaches just couldn't work, there would be no way that China could make enough progress with enough soldiers fast enough to invade Taiwan that way..
So it would need to capture one of the Taiwanese docks - but the process of capture would surely destroy the docks or Taiwan would sabotaage them - so then it has to rebuild the docks to receive the cargo of munitions before it fcan begin to advance inland. Planes could never bring in enough munitions especially with anti-aircraft missiles, manpads etc to shoot them down.
QUOTE The challenges in keeping a large mechanised force armed, fed and supplied so it can swiftly seize key objectives and fight successfully through heavily defended and populated urban areas would be huge and next to impossible in any timeframe that would guarantee success. Keeping hundreds of thousands of expeditionary troops combat-effective in the middle of a battlefield would involve a huge supply chain, while possible in peacetime, it would struggle to function in the hostile waters of the Taiwan Strait.
QUOTE These factors, coupled with determined and well-armed allies, the topography of Taiwan itself, the preparedness of its military, and the sheer weight of world opinion that would turn sharply against mainland China if it tried to invade Taiwan make it an unlikely prospect for the present.
QUOTE Blockades of ports and general overflights, grey operations – aggressive actions that stop just short of conflict – conducted by China’s coast guard and general intimidation are more likely prospects if Taiwan were perceived to be moving towards a formal declaration of independence.
QUOTE A military deterrent against any such thoughts by Taiwan’s leadership needs to be plausible, however, and that is exactly what China is working towards.
Here is their short video summary:
See: How difficult would it be for China to invade Taiwan?
Nobody has tried a sea invasion this large ever, and nobody has attempted any major sea invasion since D-Day, and no sea invasion at all with 21st century weapons.
China bluffs.
No way they take such a risk.
Such a war is beyond credible.
And remember, Chinese soldiers and sailors have no actual combat experience.
Russia with lots of experience found its invasion was very different from the exercises.
Western analysts think Russia expected to win in a few days.
Sorry got this graphic wrong. Chinese soldiers haven’t fought anyone since the Sino -Vietnam conflicts yes, but they lasted from 1979 to 1991 in various engagements. If 18 then would be 49 today.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Vietnamese_conflicts_(1979%E2%80%931991)
IN MY FACT CHECKS FOR THESE ARTICLES - THE MORE THOROUGH A SOURCE WAS ON MILITARY DETAILS THE LESS LIKELY TO SUGGEST THAT CHINA COULD WIN AND THE MOST THOROUGH STUDIES I FOUND SAY TAIWAN WOULD WIN
I'm just a voluntary fact checker for scared people, not an expert but I found while researching into this that the more detailed the sources, the more they said China couldn't win easily.
The most detailed sources I found said Taiwan is the country that would win the war.
As an example here, this is from an article In Foreign Policy magazine in 2018 by Tanner Greer based on two studies by Michael Beckley, political scientist at Tufts University, and an Easton, a fellow at the Project 2049 Institute,what a war would be like.
They say Taiwan can win a war against China despite the difference in sizes of their military and their military budget because of their strategic advantages as an islan.
Grounded in statistics, training manuals, and planning documents from the PLA itself, and informed by simulations and studies conducted by both the U.S. Defense Department and the Taiwanese Ministry of National Defense, this research presents a very different picture of a cross-strait conflict than that hawked by the party’s official announcements.
HOW I FACT CHECK - WHEN A THOROUGH SOURCE MENTIONS MAJOR ADVANTAGES FOR TAIWAN - I LOOK FOR OTHER SOURCES THAT AT LEAST MENTION / DISCUSS THOSE SAME THINGS
This is a general principle I use for fact checking military matters - but other things too. E.g. climate change.
For Taiwan, how I fact checked:
If a source says China wins easily, do they mention:
- crossing time
- size of army and number of ships
- cruise missiles
- rapid laying of sea mines
- jet fighters in underground hangars
- patriot defence system
- China's lack of combat experience
…
Never!
CHINA ISN’T GOING TO USE NUKES - WE HAVE MOVED BEYOND TRUE CARPET BOMBING - AND MANY ETHNIC CHINESE IN TAIWAN AND CLAIM TAIWAN IS EASY TO INVADE TO THEIR OWN PEOPLE
No way China uses nukes
- Taiwan doesn't have nukes.
- Many ethnic Chinese in Taiwan
- Not even Russia does carpet bombing
- Russia could have won Karkhiv in days with carpet bombing
- Mariupol is sustained bombardment risking civilians.
- nuke = instant carpet bombing.
We have far more respect for civilian lives than in WW2, and what was acceptable then would be major war crimes now, not even Russia with all its war crimes would do that now.
AND CHINA HAS THE CLEAREST NO FIRST USE AND FAR FEWER NUKES THAN US OR RUSSIA
And China has the clearest no 1st use policy of any of the great powers.
China would never use nukes against Taiwan.
U.S. WOULD NEVER USE NUKES AGAINST CHINA IN A TAIWANESE WAR EVEN IF IT ENTERED THE WAR - A U.S. GENERAL WOULD BE LEGALLY RQUIRED TO REFUSE THE ORDER - AS A WAR CRIME FOR FIRST USE OF NUKES
And U.S. wouldn't use nukes against China, after an attack on Taiwan, that would be a major major war crime again.
Wouldn't consider it.
A US general would be legally required to refuse such an order.
Tweet screenshots here
It is against all four principles of the law of armed conduct (which summarizes the complex international law).
(1) Distinction – to distinguish between the civilian population and combatants and between civilian objects and military objectives and direct operations only against military objectives.”
(2) Proportionality – Loss of life and damage to property incidental to attacks must not be excessive in relation to the military advantage
(3) Military Necessity – “…[E]very injury done to the enemy, even though permitted by the rules, is excusable only so far as it is absolutely necessary; everything beyond that is criminal.”
(4) Unnecessary Suffering – “It is prohibited to employ weapons, projectiles and materials and methods of warfare of a nature to cause superfluous injury or unnecessary suffering.”
. Online training on the Law of Armed Conflict for non-State actors
My article is here
So, it's not WWIII and there is no way China realistically can capture Taiwan
WHAT ABOUT CAPTURING ONE OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS OR A BLOCKADE? - BOTH ALSO WOULD LEAD TO MAJOR ISSUES FOR CHINA - AND CHINA IS VERY DEPENDENT ON TAIWAN FOR COMPUTER CHIPS - $100+ BILLION TRADE AND MORE IMPORTANTLY - THEY CAN ONLY MAKE MUCH OLDER TECHNOLOGY THEMSELVES, 14 nm INSTEAD OF 7 nm CHIPS
They could try to capture one of the Taiwanese islands near China - but they would have trouble holding onto it becaue Taiwan would surely fight back and has many missiles it could use to attack them.
They could try a blockade of Taiwan but that would hurt themselves too - as they depend on trade from TAiwan.
Taiwan's imports and exports to China in 2020 amounted to $166 Billion and last year was $328.3 billion and of that, $104.3 billion. was computer chips whch mainland China can't make to the same standard. Taiwan is the world leader in computer chip manufacture. And some chips are almost only made in Taiwan.
The $166 billion figure is from here https://www.taiwan.gov.tw/content_6.php
The Taiwanese company TSMC manufactures Apple’s A-series and M-series chips and has over 50% of the world’s semiconductor foundry market.
. Pelosi’s Taiwan trip puts the world's biggest chipmaker back in the spotlight of U.S.-China rivalry
The SMIC chip maker in China can only make 14 nm scale chips - that's the resolution of the smallest components. Taiwan and other manufactuerrs can make them down to 7 nm which means they can make modern much faster much more densely packed chips.
China is years behind Taiwan in chip manufacture.
, China's biggest chipmaker is still years behind its global rivals
Russia's blockade of Ukraine caused problems for countries that rely on very low cost wheat.
Any attempt by China to blockade Taiwan would cause problems for countries that depend on computer chips - including China itself. So it's not something that China could do easily. When they sanctioned Taiwan for Pelosi's visit they didn't include chips.
. china-blocks-some-taiwan-imports-but-avoids-chip-disruption
Unlike the full scale invasion, it is militarily feasible for China to do a blockade without a million or more soldiers and many weeks of preparation or more - but politically and economically it would be very difficult.
As for capturing an island, again it is militarily feasible though not easy - but then they would potentially be under constant attack from Taiwan after they capture it, by missiles. They might do it hoping Taiwan doesn’t attack, or capture an island just to make a point and then surrender it back.
What they can do are gray area things like they are doing now.
SO WHY DOES CHINA DO THESE THREATS AND EXERCISES - FIRST, TAIWAN IS WHERE THE PREVIOUS GOVERNMENT OF CHINA RETREATED IN THE CULTURAL REVOLUTION - SO RECOGNIZING TAIWAN WOULD BE A BIT LIKE SAYING THE PREVIOUS CHINESE GOVERNMENT WAS LEGITIMATE
- so why does China make these threats and what's the point in the exercises?
The former government of China retreated to Taiwan.
So for China to recognize Taiwan's independence is a bit like saying the former government is the legitimate one and not the PLA.
Flag of Taiwan was the flag of China before the cultural revolution.
The former government of China retreated to Taiwan.
China feels that if it recognizes Taiwan's independence it's like saying its former government is the legitimate one.
NO REAL RESOLUTION, CHINA WON’T BECOME A DEMOCRACY SOON, OR TAIWAN COMMUNIST, AND INDEPENDENCE IS POPULAR IN TAIWAN BUT NOT CHINA
There is no real resolution at present.
China isn't going to become a democracy any time soon or Taiwan communist and though Taiwanese independence is popular in Taiwan it isn't in China.
no way to resolve this unless:
1. China becomes a democracy and joins with Taiwan (no chance at present)
2. Taiwan becomes communist like China (no chance at present, few communists)
3. China recognizes Taiwan's independence (majority in Taiwan, not popular in China).
SO WE HAVE THE “ONE CHINA” FICTION AND CHINA HAS TO BLUFF
So, we have the fiction of "One China".
USA acknowledges China's claims that Taiwan is part of China but doesn't recognize them.
US and most countries treat Taiwan like an independent country but it can't join the UN, or sign treaties or join UN organizations like the WHO.
No way that China really goes to war. But suppose China didn't bluff and pretend it can conquer Taiwan at any moment?
Says "Okay Pelosi no problem".
...
"Okay Biden if you go to Taiwan no problem"
...
Soon Taiwan is treated in all respects like an independent nation.
Then - how is Taiwan part of China? If in all respects it is treated as independent.
China has massive human rights issues.
- yet there are also many good things about China. Its achievements in renewables, restoring biodiversity, how its health workers fought COVID.
See my:
https://twitter.com/DoomsdayDebunks/status/1438911085436936200
Communism hasn't worked well so far. But maybe China can make it work?
A century from now:
- maybe China is a democracy
- Maybe Taiwan is communist.
- Or maybe they both continue their current path.
If so, surely eventually some time in the next 100 years China is no longer so concerned about its claims on Taiwan and we get Taiwanese independence.
China's aim is soft power. The power of attraction. It's far more focused on that than even the U.S.
CHINA HAS AN EVEN BROADER IDEA OF SOFT POWER THAN THE US - IMPROVING CHINA’S IMAGE IN THE WORLD AS AN ATTRACTIVE CULTURE - STRONG AND PEACEFUL
China's aim is soft power. The power of attraction. It's far more focused on that than even the U.S.
China has a very strong focus on “soft power” which is all about improving China’s image in the rest of the world. “Soft Power” was coined by Joseph Nye and originally applied it to the USA. Idea that as the USA lost its military power at the end of the cold war - that it can gain in “soft power” with an attractive culture with attractive values that extend it’s influence in the world.
China has taken this term and extended it to mean much more than the original idea.
QUOTE So there’s all these grand events that are happening in the world, but the end of the Cold War has motivated his writing because some historians were arguing at the time that the U.S. power overall is declining, right? So Joseph Nye came in and said, well, I don’t think so. We can actually gain a lot through soft power, which is the power of attraction. Not only military power, but soft power is something that really distinguishes U.S. for many other nations.
Putin's actions must seem bewildering to Xi XinPing
- throwing away all the soft power influence Russia gained over decades.
The Chinese idea of soft power is far broader than for the US. Thousands of Chinese academic articles about it.
The Chinese idea of soft power is far broader than for the US. Thousands of Chinese academic articles about it.
One difference is that Chinese idea of soft power I think overall it’s just much broader. It’s broader, more expansive than Nye’s. So that’s just the overarching difference. So that’s kind of the big distinction, but what specifically is it broader on in terms of resources and motivation? So one is that the resources of soft power, the way the Chinese government sees it and Chinese scholars, they can include almost anything that bolsters China’s image.
So it’s not necessarily just culture values and foreign policy, but also China’s technological innovation, economic governance, political, capacity building and mobilization, and many other things, right? So culture is emphasized as kind of the core feature, but culture itself is also ambiguous. It includes traditional culture, values, ideology in it. So culture itself is an all encompassing very fluid concept.
And then in addition to that many argue that there are other ways to think about soft power, specifically focusing on politics and economics as the key kind of additional features or facets of advertising or promoting Chinese image.
So that’s kind of one big, big distinction in terms of Nye who focuses on culture values and foreign policy, and Chinese scholars who see almost anything that helps bolster China’s rise, Chinese images, potentially part of soft power,
. China's soft power collides with Russia’s war on Ukraine – SupChina
SO CHINA’S AIM IT TO SHOW IT IS POWERFUL BUT ATTRACTIVE AND A GOOD COUNTRY TO HAVE BUSINESS DEALINGS WITH AND LOOK UP TO
So China's aim is to show it's powerful, but attractive, a country to have business with and look up to.
China knows it can't really invade Taiwan, but with its "One China" policy, it has to bluff.
China bluffs that it could invade any moment and doesn't because it is peaceful.
PUTIN’S ACTIONS MUST BEWILDER XI XINGPING AND NO WAY HE EMULATES THEM
Putin's actions must seem bewildering to Xi Jinping
- throwing away nearly all the soft power influence Russia gained over many decades.
Yet not seeming to care.
Chinese idea of soft power is far broader than for US. Thousands of Chinese academic articles.
There is absolutely no way China will emulate Russia.
Russia and China aren't allies. Their interests are sometimes aligned, sometimes opposed.
Russia isn't even communist any more.
So China's aim is to show it's powerful, but attractive, a country to have business with and look up to.
China knows it can't really invade Taiwan, but with its "One China" policy, has to bluff.
LIVE FIRE JUST MEANS TO SHOOT MISSILES INTO THE SEA - ALL COUNTRIES WITH MISSILES DO THIS OFTEN
So what will it do in the live fire exercises?
Live fire just means shoot missiles into the sea.
Tweet images here
A photo / video op for the locals in Taiwan.
https://twitter.com/Mousacisse1/status/1555133367431077888
You can see where the missiles hit the sea here - fisherman turned back to port when he saw this
https://twitter.com/billbirtles/status/1555162827136159750
LIVE FIRE REGIONS ARE BUSY SHIPPING AREAS - MAIN RISK WOULD BE HITTING A SHIP BY ACCIDENT - BUT CHINA’S MISSILES ARE VERY PRECISE SO LONG AS THE SHIPS STAY OUT OF THE WAY (AND CHINA WOULD BE ABLE TO FOLLOW WHERE THE SHIPS ARE)
So what will it do in the live fire exercises?
Live fire just means shoot missiles into the sea.
The live fire areas are busy shipping areas - so the ships will be avoiding those areas for the next 3 days.
This is four and a half hours before the exercises began:
https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1554974086312476672
That's the main risk - incident with a boat that is accidentally in the area of live fire.
Or a missile that goes off course, as these were fired from Chinese land by their official video
Or a missile that goes off course, as these were fired from Chinese land by their official video.
https://twitter.com/ning61032177/status/1555140897209257984
- but Chinese missiles can be expected to be very precise.
LIVE FIRE EXERCISES ARE NORMAL - ANY COUNTRY WITH MISSILES DOES THEM FREQUENTLY - EXAMPLE OF THE UK DOING EXERCISES OFF THE OUTER HEBRIDES NOT THAT FAR FROM WHERE I LIVE
Live fire drills with missiles are normal. Every country with missiles does this frequently. There's a region in the sea off the coast of Outer Hebrides in UK - where they do live fire exercises (I live in the Inner Hebrides). This is June 2021.
Photo of the exercise:
What isn't normal is to fire missiles into another country's territorial waters without their permission. But China wil have lots of previous experience shooting missiles into the sea in other places. So it will know its missiles are reliable.
OUTRAGEOUSLY TWO OF THEIR LIVE FIRES ZONES OVERLAP TAIWAN’S SOVEREIGN TERRITORIAL WATERS AND ONE SLIGHLY OVERLAPS ITS INTERNAL WATERS - THE LINE AROUND ITS OUTERMOST ISLETS
Outrageously, two of their announced live fire zones overlap Taiwan's sovereign territorial waters and one even slightly overlaps its internal waters. Nathan Ruser on Twitter CIGeography on Twitter
Tweet images here
Internal waters here however doesn't mean intertidal zones, those are much tighter.
https://www.nlsc.gov.tw/en/cp.aspx?n=2133
But it includes small offshore islets around Taiwan. E.g. Pengjia islet
map: Taiwan
This is where it is, no local people but a small population associated with the military living there.
See:
TAIWAN HAS THE SAME RIGHTS FOR INTERNAL WATERS AS ON LAND - AND CHINA SHOULDN’ TUSE LIVE FIRE EXERCISES IN EITHER INTERNAL WATERS OR TERRITORIAL WATERS
Taiwan has the same rights for internal waters as on land.
Article7
Straight baselines
1. In localities where the coastline is deeply indented and cut into, or if there is a fringe of islands along the coast in its immediate vicinity, the method of straight baselines joining appropriate points may be employed in drawing the baseline from which the breadth of the territorial sea is measured
.,,
Article8
Internal waters
1. Except as provided in Part IV, waters on the landward side of the baseline of the territorial sea form part of the internal waters of the State.
2. Where the establishment of a straight baseline in accordance with the method set forth in article 7 has the effect of enclosing as internal waters areas which had not previously been considered as such, a right of innocent passage as provided in this Convention shall exist in those waters..
See also
See how the baseline curves around the islets in this schematic diagram from Wikiipedia.
In those internal waters, even innocent passage isn't permitted - ships with no hostile purpose - except where the right existed before the boundaries were drawn.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Innocent_passage
And live fire isn't permitted at all even when innocent passage is permitted such as in territorial waters.
Article19
Meaning of innocent passage
1. Passage is innocent so long as it is not prejudicial to the peace, good order or security of the coastal State. Such passage shall take place in conformity with this Convention and with other rules of international law.
2. Passage of a foreign ship shall be considered to be prejudicial to the peace, good order or security of the coastal State if in the territorial sea it engages in any of the following activities:
(a) any threat or use of force against the sovereignty, territorial integrity or political independence of the coastal State, or in any other manner in violation of the principles of international law embodied in the Charter of the United Nations;
(b) any exercise or practice with weapons of any kind;
(c) any act aimed at collecting information to the prejudice of the defence or security of the coastal State;
… (many other activities not permitted)
CHINA IS A PARTY TO THE UN CONVENTION ON THE LAW OF THE SEA - SO WHY DOES IT DO THIS? - IT IS TO SAY IT DOESN’T RECOGNIZE TAIWAN AS HAVING THESE RIGHTS
So there is no doubt that what China did is against the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. Which China is a party to.
. List of parties to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea - Wikipedia
It's China’s way of saying they don't recognize Taiwan's right to be an independent country with its own territory.
CHINA BLUFFS THAT IT COULD INVADE BUT DOESN’T BECAUSE IT EXPECTS PEACEFUL REUNIFICATION
China BLUFFS that
1. it could invade any moment
2. doesn't because it is peaceful..THIS IS CHINA’S WAY OF SAYING THEY DON’T RECOGNIZE TAIWAN’S RIGHT TO BE AN INDEPENDENT COUNTRY - BUT NOT GOING TO ESCALATE
It's their way of saying they don't recognize Taiwan's right to be an independent country with its own territory.
There is no way that Taiwan will respond in any military fashion.
INDEED IT’S AN OPPORTUNITY FOR TAIWAN AND USA TO OBSERVE CHINA’S MILITARY CAPABIITIIES - AND VULNERABILITIES - CLOSE UP
Indeed - this is an opportunity for Taiwan and USA to observe China's capabilities close up, and what they get right or what goes wrong - and they will be learning from it just as China is.
Indeed - this is an opportunity for Taiwan and US to observe China's capabilities close up, and what they get right or what goes wrong - and they will be learning from it just as China is.
https://twitter.com/WarintheFuture/status/1554947243488460801
Maybe Taiwan / US will respond with some sanctions?
But not a military escalation.
NOTHING TO BE SCARED OF - LOCALS ENJOYING A LOVELY NIGHT CONCERT - OR DRINKING BUBBLE TEA AND TAKING PHOTOS WITH THEIR MOBILE PHONES
So there is nothing to be scared of here. The locals in Matsu island which is only 20 km from the Chinese mainland enjoyed a lovely night concert.
https://twitter.com/wen1949/status/1555184274831474688
Tourists vist Matso island most of all for its "blue tears" bioluminescence.
You can see how close it is to China from the image at top right here:
My tweet with those images here:)
https://twitter.com/wen1949/status/1555150187513135106
Meanwhile locals in Taiwan are taking photos with their mobile phones and sipping bubble tea :).Also
https://twitter.com/VulpesVelox_/status/1555088288834555904
So - it's nothing to be scared about. China will fire missiles into the sea near Taiwan for 3 days, sail some ships into those regions, long enough to make their point about Pelosi's visit.
But there is no way they really plan an invasion.I
FRING MISSILES INTO JAPAN’S EEZ ISN’T A BIG DEAL - THOUGH OF COURSE JAPAN HAS TO PROTEST
News story saying China fired into Japan's EEZ. That's not a big deal. Japan has limited rights there, mainly over economic activities of the sea bed rather than surface waters. NK has fired missiles into anther part of its EEZ. One active firing region does overlap Japan's EEZ.
Japan says it's SW of Hateurama island - that's close to Taiwan.
https://japantimes.co.jp/news/2022/08/04/national/japan-china-missiles-eez/
Live firing zones map
https://taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4615993
Japan EEZ Exclusive economic zone of Japan - Wikipedia
Treaty text PREAMBLE TO THE UNITED NATIONS CONVENTION ON THE LAW OF THE SEA
TRANSCRIPT OF CONVERSATION WITH PROFESSOR WEN TI SAN, - CHINA NEEDS TO SHOW DEFIANCE TO REGAIN CREDIBILITY AFTER ALL ITS THREATS DIDN’T STOP PELOSI VISITING THE ISLAND - MORE POLITIAL MESSAGING THAN MILITARY PREPARATION - AND TO SHOW DISRESPECT TO TAIWAN’S SEA TERRITORIAL CLAIMS TO COUNTERACT PELOSI’S VISIT PERHAPS PUTTING THE WIND UNDER THE SAILS OF TAIWANESE INDEPENDENCE
Interview on News Day at the BBC with Wen Ti San (questions by Karishma Vaswan presenting from Singaporei)
We can speak now to Wen Ti San, a political scientist who teaches the Taiwan studies program at the Australian National University. It is great professor to have you on the program. Ms Pelosi has left Taiwan after meeting with the prime minister there. What do you think the point of these Chinese exercises is now?
I think it is more political messaging more than a true next level up in terms of military activities.
I think China is trying to show defiance both to keep its domestic nationalists audience happy and also to counter messages from Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan.
Because Pelosi visited Taiwan in defiance of lots of very serious Chinese military threats. The fact that she did go shows that the credibility of China's threat went down as a result.
So
1. now we see China also show similar defiance as a way to regain its credibility.
2. it's also about countering Nancy Pelosi's claim - that such a high level official being in Taiwan can make China feel it puts some wind under the sails of Taiwan's claim to be a true sovereign state actor.
So in that sense China is trying to have live fire activity, military exercises in what Taiwan calls its own territorial waters precisely to show that if Taiwan doesn't escalate in response then China can claim
"See these what Taiwan calls territorial waters re not Taiwanese territorial waters and these are Chinese territorial waters, and that's why I can do what I want here"
Then that goes further to undermine the effect that Nancy Pelosi had on Taiwanese sovereignty.
Q. Do you see the Chinese as satisfied by these military drills or do you see Ms Pelosi as going to Taiwan has in fact accelerated the process of reunification of Taiwan either by force or other means?
A. I think Pelosi's visit will have effect on cross - strait relations. But I think China is trying to optimize and really calibrate the level of what it shows right now.
On the one hand they have to satisfy their own domestic audience. But they can't go all the way to military escalation. That's going to unleash so much instability that threaten to create complications for president Xi attempting to gain a third term in a few months time.
So right now China will be trying to find optimal balance to show enough to make the domestic audience happy but not truly so much as to make true risk escalation likely down the road.
Q. What's the potential for miscalculation here, do you think professor? Given that these military drills are taking place around Taiwan and so many of its neighbours are already saying Taiwan needs to stop?
A. The risk of accident you can never really truly rule it out just by the nature of accident that's what they are.
At this point it's almost a cliché to say a war is in nobody's interest.
While we hear the fiery rhetoric from China I think it's important we listen to the opinion of the true leaders in China whose opinion counts way more of course.
Last week given that Pelosi's visit was pending, president Xi still decided to go ahead and take a phone-call from president Biden.
I think that already says something, taking a call as opposed to cancelling it. Also president Xi set the tone in the read out the Chinese side issued afterwards. President Xi said he described to Biden it is wrong to describe US China relations as primarily one of competition. Instead it should still be one of cooperation on many many issues.
So I think that tells us if competition is not what China wants let alone confrontation or war.
So I think all the officials working under president Xi on that want to get paged on that and at least to set a ceiling on how far they escalate militarily and try to keep attention at optimal levels to keep nationalists happy but not too much attention and too much other international pushback.
Q. I find it really interesting that picture you are painting.
With that description, do you expect over the next couple of days, what do you expect by way of military drills, and going forward should we expect more from Beijing?
A. I think more is likely. And we can't rule out the possibility of China firing missiles that go over Taiwan [already happened]
To do that shows again disrespect for Taiwan's so called air space. Another way to delegitimize Taiwan's claim.
One thing that will happen down the road more a diplomatic message from other countries around the world - to show concern but also to show to China that "yes your feelings do matter" and that will hopefully give China a bit more face back and give it an off-ramp.
COOPERATION INSTEAD OF COMPETITION - IN PRESIDENT XI JINGPING’S READOUT OF HIS CONVERSATION WITH BIDEN
This is the section of the readout Wen Ti San referred to:
[QUOTE President Xi underscored that to approach and define China-US relations in terms of strategic competition and view China as the primary rival and the most serious long-term challenge would be misperceiving China-US relations and misreading China’s development, and would mislead the people of the two countries and the international community. The two sides need to maintain communication at all levels and make good use of existing channels to promote bilateral cooperation.
Recognizing the many challenges facing the global economy, President Xi underscored the need for China and the US to maintain communication on such important issues as coordinating macroeconomic policies, keeping global industrial and supply chains stable, and protecting global energy and food security.
Attempts at decoupling or severing supply chains in defiance of underlying laws would not help boost the US economy. They would only make the world economy more vulnerable.
The two sides need to work for deescalation of regional hotspots, help rid the world of COVID-19 as early as possible, reduce the risk of stagflation and recession, and uphold the international system centering on the UN and the international order underpinned by international law.
. President Xi Jinping Speaks with US President Joe Biden on the Phone
(Biden's readout here: Readout of President Biden’s Call with President Xi Jinping of the People’s Republic of China | The White House]
SHORT SUMMARY OF SOME OF THE MAIN POINTS
This is a highly unlikely war and it would not be likely to spread far beyond China and Taiwan. Of course military planners have to plan for the unlikely and even the impossible but it doesn't make much sense as a reason for a larger war or as a future potential war at all really.
China is the one great power not to invade any other country this century.
It has already conquered all the countries in former Chinese empires except parts of Russia, Mongolia, the Koreas [controversial whether they were ever part of China] and Taiwan.
It's given up on all of those except Taiwan and the South China Sea.
It doesn't want a world war for very obvious reasons. It would lead to lots of harm to China. It would be immediately sanctioned and its trade to the rest of Asia and to the USA is far more important than the small amount of trade to Russia. It also holds itself up as an example in the region as a peaceful nation and loses all that if it invades Taiwan.
Also it is not practically possible to invade Taiwan.
In theory it might be able to if it could get together an army of 2 million and 10s of thousands of boats, in reality then nobody has ever fought such a war with a crossing of at least 4 hours for slow boats, an hour and a half even for destroyers, against a country that is far better equipped than Ukraine is even today.
With only 14 small invasion beaches.
And it doesn't make sense that if there was a war between China and say Taiwan supported by Japan / US that this would lead to wars in Europe and in the Middle East. These have no connection with each other.
China is not an ally of either Iran or Russia.
And China does want to have a global influence politically and economically. It does not want to dominate the world militarily. It has more than enough trouble holding onto the empire it has already.
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