Drones headed for ISRAEL - still low key as most or all will be shot down - never any risk of world war - Iran CAN’T attack Europe or USA - Israel will stop and think carefully
- RUSSIA WON’T GET INVOLVED
Reminder to everyone, Iran CAN'T attack most of Europe or the USA. These missiles are headed for ISRAEL. Most of them will be shot down. Iran says “the matter can be deemed concluded”. So it is calibrated.
Iran telegraphed the attack by sending drones that take hours to get to Israel
Gave the opportunity for others to shoot them down.
This looks like theatrics
To be seen as responding but deliberately not with a significant chance of damage in Israel
This make it a low key response even though it is the first direct response to Israel.
There is NO RISK OF A WORLD WAR AND NEVER HAS BEEN.
there were 100 drones or cruise missiles.
Some have been shot down already over Syria and Jordan.
Israel has been given lots of time to prepare for the attack.
Maybe all of the drones will be shot down
Drones take 7 to 8 hours, cruise missiles take 2 hours.
UPDATE - ALL DRONES AND CRUISE MISSILES SHOT DOWN SOME BALLISTIC MISSILES CAUSED MINOR DAMAGE TO AN AIR BASE IN SOUTHERN ISRAEL
It started and finished now and it was low key. Surprising and dramatic but low key, Iran could have done far more.
The latest news is 331 missiles total. ALL the drones and cruise missiles were shot down before they reached Israel. The ones we saw shot down over Israel were likely ballistic missiles, the hardest to shoot down.
Iran fired 110 ballistic missiles at Israel. But most of those were shot down too and they caused minor damage in an air field in southern Ukraine. One 7 year old girl got serious injuries from shrapnel and is being treated in hospital.
Biden tells Israel it will not join it in any counterattack against Iran. So from the US's point of view it is over.
"You got a win. Take the win," Biden told Netanyahu,
. axios.com/2024/04/14/biden-netanyahu-iran-israel-us-wont-support
Iran says the matter can be deemed concluded. So it wants to draw a line under it at this point.
According to various experts on the BBC discussing all this, Israel may still respond with a third attack.
However, it will make a big difference to Iran that the US will not get involved in any Israeli response to Iran. Whatever Israel does if it does respond it is highly unlikely Iran responds back again - it knows that it will come off worse in a prolonged direct tit for tat. It has far weaker defences and far less capable missiles than Israel.
So Iran won't want to get into a shooting match like that. Instead, Iran would likely go back to using its proxies if Israel does respond.
This shows the situation.
Text on graphic: Iran says “the matter can be deemed concluded” i.e. with the missiles already in flight.
Iran and Israel have no common border.
Most of the countries in the region do NOT support Iran.
Worst case would be Lebanon, Syria and Yemen with Iran NOT Russia.
Russia has ties with Israel and Iran - will NOT get involved - called for a ceasefire all the way through.
QUOTE Conducted on the strength of Article 51 of the UN Charter pertaining to legitimate defense, Iran’s military action was in response to the Zionist regime’s aggression against our diplomatic premises in Damascus. The matter can be deemed concluded. However, should the Israeli regime make another mistake, Iran’s response will be considerably more severe. It is a conflict between Iran and the rogue Israeli regime, from which the U.S. MUST STAY AWAY!
https://twitter.com/Iran_UN/status/1779269993043022053
The threatening tone is normal for Iran and it seems a low key de-escalatory statement by their standards.
It is possible Israel does respond again but not immediately. There are many military targets in Iran it could attack. Iran wants to draw a line, but Israel may feel they need to do one more response to Iran.
Israel is far far more capable than Iran, it has more accurate more capable missiles and Iran has far less effective defences.
Israel might do a final third response to Iran. If so there is likely not much Iran can do back because Iran knows that it will come off worse in a continuing tit for tat like that.
Or Israel may do nothing as there have been only minor effects on Israel so far.
UPDATES - QUOTES
These are the quotes for the updates section:
QUOTE STARTS
Iran fired over 300 projectiles in air attack – report
Iran launched some 185 drones, 110 surface-to-surface missiles, and 36 cruise missiles at Israel, two Israeli officials tell The New York Times.
Though most were launched from Iran, some also came from Iraq and Yemen, according to the officials. US President Joe Biden says missiles came from Syria, as well as Yemen and Iraq.
US won’t back Israeli counterattack – reports
US President Joe Biden told Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that the US will not aid any Israeli counterattack on Iran, US media report, citing senior administration officials.
Axios and CNN report that message was passed during a phone call between the pair.
Axios reports that Biden told Netyanyahu the US will oppose any Israeli counterattack.
CNN reports that Biden said the US will not take part in any such counteraction.
. timesofisrael.com/liveblog-april-14-2024/
QUOTE STARTS
Biden told Netanyahu the joint defensive efforts by Israel, the U.S. and other countries in the region led to the failure of the Iranian attack, according to the White House official.
"You got a win. Take the win," Biden told Netanyahu, according to the official.
The official said that when Biden told Netanyahu that the U.S. will not participate in any offensive operations against Iran and will not support such operations, Netanyahu said he understood.
U.S. Secretary of State Lloyd Austin spoke on Saturday with his Israeli counterpart Yoav Gallant and asked that Israel notify the U.S. ahead of any response against Iran, a senior Israeli official said.
. axios.com/2024/04/14/biden-netanyahu-iran-israel-us-wont-support
QUOTE STARTS
The Magen David Adom ambulance service says its medics are treating a 7-year-old girl in southern Israel who was wounded by shrapnel following the interception of an Iranian drone over the area.
The girl, from a Bedouin town near Arad, is listed in serious condition, MDA says.
She has been taken to Soroka Hospital in Beersheba.
QUOTE “A small number of hits were identified, including at an IDF base in southern Israel, where minor damage was caused to infrastructure,” the Israeli military said.
ISRAEL CAN STOP CRUISE MISSILES AND DRONES
Israel can intercept Houthi cruise missiles from Yemen. So it has the defensive capabilities,
They are not likely to attack any US bases.
Background in my blog post:
BLOG: Whatever Iran does in response to the killing of generals in the Syria consolate will be low key
- it does NOT want to escalate
- it may do nothing
- its priority is a ceasefire in Gaza strip
Text on graphic: Iran will look for a low key way to respond to keep world attention on Israel.
- and it can’t target anywhere far outside the Middle East
Maximum range of Iran’s missiles shown
- Iran does NOT have ICMBs
- Iran does NOT have nukes.
We know this as both need testing first.
Iran can’t fight a world war even if it wanted to.
The main possibilities are
1. all the missiles are shot down and nothing else happens.
2. Iran damages some military equipment.
3. Iran kills Israeli soldiers
4. Iran kills Israeli civilians
5. Iran kills US soldiers (very unlikely)
Whatever happens Israel then stops and thinks about how to respond.
If only 1. or 2. happen then Israel may not even do anything.
If 3. or 4. they may do some strike against Iran after some time, not immediately.
If 5. then US may get involved. But it will be very reluctant to do that except it may get involved in helping Israel to shoot down the drones and missiles.
- Israel wouldn't respond immediately except to protect itself by shooting down drones..
- US wouldn't respond immediately either. As with Iran they would stop and think carefully about what to do next.
1. Iran can't attack US or UK or Europe.
2. Iran wants to keep it low key.
3. US doesn't want to get involved in a war in the Middle East.
4. There is no way that Russia gets involved, nobody has ever suggested it would.
5. Russia is very weak. But even if it wasn't fighting Ukraine it wouldn't take the side of Iran.
6. Israel is not likely to respond immediately.