Effects of a major solar storm: at most short term local power cuts - only twice, 9 hours in Quebec, 1989 - 1 hour in Sweden 2003 - newer transformers not harmed - older models likely not harmed
- but protection circuits may turn them off unnecessarily
From time to time we get larger solar storms. Only two solar storms have ever caused a power cut - the main one is in March 1989 geomagnetic storm which caused a nine-hour power cut in Quebec.
There was one other power cut from a solar storm in 2003. It caused a one-hour blackout in southern Sweden for 50,000 customers
QUOTE The blackout lasted for an hour and left about 50,000 customers without electricity Geomagnetic storm of 29-31 October 2003: Geomagnetically induced currents and their relation to problems in the Swedish high-voltage power transmission system | Lund University
Modern power supplies are hardened against this. The 1989 solar storm today wouldn’t cause a powercut in modern Quebec because they took measures to prevent it happening again:
QUOTE STARTS
Shortly after this blackout, Hydro-Québec organized a task force to analyze the events and propose corrective measures. The following measures have since been applied:
Recalibration of protection systems and raising of the trip level. This tactic has proven effective, seeing there have been very intense magnetic storms since 1989 but they have not caused any problems.
Establishment of a real-time alert system that measures disturbances on the power grid during magnetic storms.
Modification of power system operating procedures. In the event of a disturbance, Hydro-Québec reduces power flow on lines and direct-current interconnections, and suspends all major switching operations.
Installation of series compensation on power lines to enhance grid stability. This measure has been very effective in mitigating the impact of magnetic storms.
. Understanding Electricity | March 1989 Blackout | Hydro-Québec
Even in 1989 only one city was affected in the world, and Quebec is especially vulnerable because it is far north and has long powerlines over resistive rock (resistive rock allows more electric potential to build up in the conductive wires during a storm). As they explain:
QUOTE STARTS
Hydro-Québec still remains more vulnerable due to Québec's position on a large rock shield that prevents the current from flowing through the earth. The electricity then finds a less resistant path along the power lines. What's more, Hydro-Québec's grid is made up of very long transmission lines, making it even more vulnerable to the Sun's temper tantrums
. Understanding Electricity | March 1989 Blackout | Hydro-Québec
A 2020 assessment of transformers in the USA found that
none of the transformers they analysed would be damaged by even a once per century solar storm.
This is the 2020 transformers study Research Findings for Geomagnetic Disturbance Research Work Plan: Summary Report
The other main one I summarize is this one also from 2020 A 100-year Geoelectric Hazard Analysis for the U.S. High-Voltage Power Grid
Used to say a decade or two ago
powercuts for months,
then down to a few powercuts in most vulnerable places for hours.
Now down to none at all except possibly during the storm mainly due to systems shutting down in response to surges when they don't need to.
The main older studies I summarize are this one from 2012: Effects of Geomagnetic Disturbances on the Bulk Power System
And from 2017: The Economic Impact of Space Weather: Where Do We Stand?
The most recent transformers use a special kind of metal "rope" with lots of insulated rectangular cross section wires which spread out any heat and dissipate it easily and they wouldn't have any effects but even older models don't reach temperatures high enough to damage them.
since 1997, newly installed transformers have a design which makes them much more resilient to solar storms
the technology is ContinuouslyTransposed Cables. The cables that are wounded round and round to make the transformer are divided up into numerous rectangular cables which twist and turn along the cable and are separated by insulation.
Transformers that use this new type of cable will distribute the heat evenly and won’t be affected at all
But even older models are likely safe too.
An analysis of 84 different models used in the US grid found that none of them are at risk in a one in a century type solar storm.
There is NO RISK TO CONSUMER ELECTRONICS. The maximum potential or a once per century solar storm in the USA is at a site in Maine with 27.2 V/km or 0.0272 volts per meter.
That is less than three hundredths of a volt per meter for a once per century solar storm for the worst affected area in the USA. That is not going to do anything to a car or smartphone, say, unless you connect it to a kilometers long cable.
Relacing the damaged transformers for the electricity grid would still be expensive, those tens of billions of dollars. But they are triply redundant so you can configure the power around the damaged ones as you replace them
Also many utilities have now joined an insurance scheme that provides a stockpile of mobile back up step up / down transformers that they can use to replaced damaged ones after a natural disaster.
Here is a summary of the effects of a solar storm.
An X-class flare only matters for over the horizon HF (High Frequency) radio and radar and has already happened when you get the alert as it gets here at speed of light.
Solar storms arrive with several days warning - but we are only sure of magnetic field effects 15 minutes to one hour before it gets here (when magnetic field is detected at L1 between Earth and sun)
Solar flare protons arrive with ~20 minutes warning and last for hours
GPS can be confused for up to hours
Nothing can harm us physically or our consumer electronics
Power cuts rare for once per century storms only very long power lines affected and depending on local geology restored in hours to days (latest research)
Some THOUSANDS OF KILOMETERS long SUBSEA internet cables MIGHT lose connectivity (evidence weak) - restored in days
Graphic from: Do space weather effects / solar storms affect Earth?' ' from NASA’s Solar Storm and Space Weather - Frequently Asked Questions
Solar flare - no warning. Impacts "over the horizon" radar and long wave radio
Energetic particles - 20 minutes to hours - astronauts and spacecraft
Magnetic storms - a few days warning - fluctuations in power grid
NONE of these can harm you directly.
The experts can predict geomagnetic storms in the three day forecast. However the strength of the storm depends on the direction of the magnetic field. If it’s south facing then the storm is much stronger as it counteracts Earth’s magnetic field - we only know this in when it passes our magnetometers in the L1 position between Earth and sun (where a satellite can orbit permanently in a kind of balance between the Earth and sun’s gravitational fields). Most storms have a mix of field directions sometimes north and sometimes south pointing.
So grid operators have up to three days warning of a potential solar storm but only 20 minutes to an hour of warning for the strenght of the effect - this is still enough time to take important actions to safeguard the grid.
Details: see Coronal Mass Ejections
For the sub-sea cables see my
To link to separate sections see the copy of this page in our wiki
Short summary
Yes we will be okay.,
Many solar maximums (every 11 years).
Only one power cut ever in a solar storm, Quebec, 1989, for 9 hours.
Modern transformers for the electricity grid are much more resilient now so the Quebec power cut can't happen again. Many companies also have portable spare backup transformers.
There was an even bigger solar storm in 1859 before power grids, the Carrington event.
With the very biggest possible Carrington type solar storm there might be some rare power cuts.
But only old models of transformers or ones near the end of their life get harmed in any scenario.
A new US study says that even the old models would likely be fine.
There is a risk of equipment shutting down unnecessarily during a solar storm and there’s a new tool utilities can use to reduce that risk.
Nothing to worry ordinary people.
If there are power cuts there will be few of them and quickly fixed. But the grid is getting more and more resilient every year and as of writing this (update in 2023) it’s now looking highly unlikely there would be much noticeable impact on the consumer.
2020 study - modern transformers are immune to solar storm damage and even older models are not likely to be damaged in a once per century solar storm
Modern transformers use ContinuouslyTransposed Cables. These are divided up into numerous rectangular cables which twist and turn along the cable and are separated by insulation. I’m not sure how it works but it would be to do with the magnetic fields set up in the transformer by currents flowing through the wires. Anyway they
Reduce the cost
Increase the electricity that flows through the wires
Reduces number of windings needed
And the thing that’s most important for solar storms:
Spreads any heating evenly through the cable
See:
. C.T.C. (Continuously Transposed Conductor) - Sam Dong
Close up photo here
. Continuously Transposed Cable (CTC) 120
Anyway the US has a vast number of types of transformer in all its electriicty grids. But an analysis of several transformers and then 84 additional models found that NONE of them were susceptible to a once per century solar storm.
The CTC ones weren’t affected at all. Some of the older models heated up significantly but not enough to reach a temperature where they’d be damaged.
QUOTE STARTS
Delta/tertiary windings not using a CTC in conjunction with a very low short-circuit current limiting inductance in the tertiary are most susceptible to a GIC [Ground Induced Current]. However, the short-term emergency hotspot temperature for the delta/tertiary winding in this research was below a critical level even with a high GIC (200 A/phase). Nevertheless, when a non-CTC conductor is used, a thermal evaluation is recommended
. Research Findings for Geomagnetic Disturbance Research Work Plan: Summary Report
In more detail:
QUOTE STARTS
In some operating conditions, using non-CTC conductors in tertiary windings may result in significant heating under GIC. Critically high temperatures in tertiary windings that contain non-CTC conductors are likely to occur when the tertiary has a very low short-circuit current-limiting inductance. In all the configurations studied, tertiary winding did not exceed the short-term emergency heating limits even when the two most susceptible configurations were combined.
. Research Findings for Geomagnetic Disturbance Research Work Plan: Summary Report
2021 - new tool to help utilities to avoid unnecessary shutdowns
The main risk might be rather the other way around that the transformers shut down to protect themselves when it’s not necessary. This is a new tool that’s been developed to help reduce the risk of this happening.
QUOTE STARTS
During a severe solar storm, the relays that protect power system assets, such as capacitors and bulk power transformers, detect harmonic currents and may shut down the equipment or malfunction in one way or another. In some cases, however, the harmonics don’t actually represent a threat to the equipment, and unintended operation of the relays can contribute to a blackout.
“The tool can inform decisions about which power system assets are the most vulnerable and need to be hardened—and which ones can withstand a severe solar storm without additional protection,” said Bob Arritt, an EPRI expert on solar storms and their impacts on bulk power systems. “For the vulnerable transformers, you can install a device that blocks geomagnetically induced currents or make operational decisions to remove the transformer from service.”
https://eprijournal.com/storm-of-the-century/
Early studies suggested widespread grid failures for months - later downgraded
There were earlier studies suggesting widespread damage to transformers which could cause months to years to repair, widespread power supply problems that would take a long time to resolve, and trillions of dollars of damage, so a large economic impact.
However later studies found the newer transformers are more resilient than previously thought. A major solar storm could lead to some localized power cuts for hours. But not for weeks or months.
Some of the older transformers would be damaged, it’s true. But there’s a lot of redundancy in the system. Many of the areas supplied by a damaged transformer might not even get any power cuts because the system would reconfigure and other transformers would be able to step in and take up the slack.
Solar storms can only damage equipment attached to cables tens to hundreds of kilometers long - not consumer electronics
The solar storms only causes magnetic effects in very long wires, in a US survey the maximum gradient was 27.2 V/km at a site in Maine which is 0.0272 volts per meter, which is not going to do anything to a car or smartphone, say, unless you connect it to a very long cable. . 30% of the US long distance cables would have voltages of at least 1 volt per kilometer in a record breaking once per century type solar storm.
The risk is only to the hardware connected to those long cables. They have step up and step down transformers to adjust the voltage - are not connected directly to anything else. So the risk is just for those transformers.
This is a shorter version of my
You don’t need to protect consumer electronics like smart phones etc
The magnetic fields are very weak - but spread over huge distances. They don't produce EMPs despite the many blog posts you may see claiming they do. Electricity companies need to protect certain machines, step up / down transformers, because they are attached to long wires tens or hundreds of kilometers long.
The maximum potential of 0.0272 volts per meter is not going to do anything to a car or smartphone, say, unless you connect it to a very long cable.
0.0272 volts per meter is 27.2 volts per kilometer. Even that is minute compared to the 345,000 volts in high voltage transmission lines - it needs to be tens or hundreds of kilometers long to be an issue and only some wires have these problems at all. It's only an issue of the underlying geology is insulating - if it is conductive, e.g. clays or shales then no voltage is generated. If it is resistive like granite then it can build up quite a voltage in the wire that isn't matched by the same voltage variation in the ground below the cable - which is what causes the problems.
But those big machines are triply redundant and are no longer as vulnerable as they were in 1989, the only time we have ever had a powercut caused by a solar storm - for 9 hours in Quebec. Even if we have a once in a century type Carrington event, it won't do anything.
At the time of the 1989 storm, nobody expected damage to equipment from a solar storm, so they were totally unprepared. There were many conferences to figure out what happened and they developed guidelines for the industry on how to respond to such a storm to be better prepared in the future.
QUOTE STARTS
Geomagnetic effects on power systems had previously been examined by Albertson and coworkers in United States, but the possibility of equipment damage or significant effects on system operation had generally been discounted .... Thus, the March 1989 event came as a shock to the power industry and resulted in a paradigm shift in thinking about geomagnetic effects on power systems.
In the aftermath of the March 1989 storm there were a number of conferences to examine what had happened. ... A number of studies were made that documented the effects of the March 1989 storm and tried to explain the effects on equipment and why the blackout occurred.
The March 1989 storm was the trigger for a lot of research into geomagnetic effects on power systems .... An extra spur to research was the reexamination of the 1859 Carrington event ..., which produced extensive effects on the telegraph. These studies showed that magnetic disturbances even larger than that in March 1989 could occur and prompted examination of what could be the potential impact of such a storm on modern systems. This subsequently led to the development of guidelines for the power industry to deal with geomagnetic disturbances.
Why the risk got downgraded - newer transformers less vulnerable
Old step down transfprmers used to be vulnerable and that is what caused the power cuts in Quebec. These are multi-million dollar machines and it take months to build each one. That's what lead to those predictions of trillion dollar blackouts lasting for months.
However, manufacturers learnt from the Quebec power cut and modern transformers are hardened against that. The older studies didn't take account of that properly. Newer studies do take account of this resilience, and find that only the older models and ones near the end of their life are at risk in a Carrington type event.
That is why it got downgraded from trillions of dollars to tens of bilions of dollars and from a country wide blackout of several months to short local powercuts of a few hours, and most areas don't have them at all though replacing the damaged transformers would be an expensive job. But most are triply redundant anyway so you'd deal with it by configuring the power around the ones that had failed until you got the new ones up and running.
Up to a few days warning from solar mass ejection and then a few hours warning from ace of a solar storm approaching Earth
The solar storms happen typically 2-3 days after the coronal mass ejection (depending on speed) and there are a few hours warning of the approach to L1 from ACE and then 30 to 60 minutes warning after they pass the L1 position
This gives time for electricity grid companies to put their equipment into safer modes.
. how-do-we-know-if-a-cme-is-earth-directed-and-when-it-s-going-to-arrive
The NOAA gives forecasts for the next 28 days based on the sun spots, and for the next 2-3 days based on observing CMEs.
T
Risk depends on underlying geology as well as length of powerlines - only a few spots are worst affected
Also researchers found that only some power lines are at risk. If the underlying rock is conductive, as it is over most of the US for instance, then not much of a magnetic field can build up in the power lines and the lines are protected.
This shows the effect of the underlying rock on a small part of the grid around the city of Denver. Power lines are colour coded according to the maximum voltage expected in a once per century solar storm.
The dots show the survey sites used as the basis of their predictions, the coloured lines show the predicted maximum voltage in each grid line. Most of the area is low risk because the Denver basin is conductive, but some areas are at high risk due to the resistive Rocky mountain material of crystalline rock. A 100‐year Geoelectric Hazard Analysis for the U.S. High‐Voltage Power Grid
The voltage that builds up in a once per century solar storm depends on the resistance or conductance of the underlying rock and the length of the power line. A long powerline over resistant rock such as crystaline metamorphic rock is most at risk. A short powerline over conductive rock such as shales or clays is least at risk. The risk also depends on the latitude, high latitude regions are higher risk. So the regional risk varies hugely, and work on making the grid more resilient can focus on the most at risk regions.
https://gpg.geosci.xyz/content/physical_properties/physical_properties_conductivity.html
Our sun goes through an eleven year cycle of more, and then less sunspots. Most solar storms happen when there are most sunspots. However, the largest ones can happen at any time in the solar cycle. Solar storms are not unusual during solar minimum, though it’s rare.
In detail, for those interested in the techy details:
Effects of extreme solar storms
You can get an idea of the worst to expect from solar storms from their warning levels here
Here a solar cycle is 11 years..
This is my summary with additional notes:
4 geomagnetic storms per solar cycle
Summary:
repairs to the power grid, worst storms could cause some power cuts
NOTE: this has only happened once so far in Quebec in 1989
satellite navigation degraded for days (GPS),
no low frequency radio navigation for hours (not a big issue for most of us as we don’t use the low frequencies that bounce off the ionosphere any more).
Less than 1 Solar Radiation Storm per solar cycle
Summary:
astronauts exposed to high levels of radiation, no spacewalks, may need to shelter in most shielded part of space station
passengers in planes flying at high altitudes over the polar regions may get a radiation dose but relatively harmless - mainly important for frequent fliers and pilots - pilots divert flights away from the poles.
No effect at ground level - radiation can’t get through our atmosphere.
Complete blackout of high frequency radio communications
major navigation issues.
Less than one radio blackout per solar cycle
Complete radio blackout over sunlit side of Earth lasting for hours.
No high frequency radio contact with mariners and planes en route.
Navigation errors possible
NOTE: planes have multiple backup systems
Details see: . NOAA Space Weather Scales
Satellite TV including also most cable TV can also be affected by sun outages - these happen only in the spring and fall when the sun is in direct line with the satellite as seen by its receiver on Earth and typically last for seconds to minutes depending on sun spot activity. It’s a minor nuisance for cable TV users:
. Cable TV Sun Outages: Who, What, When, Where, and Why?
Of all of those issues, the big one is the effect on power supplies. The others are minor issues in the larger scheme of things, over in a day or a few hours. Also there isn’t that much you can do about them, except hardening satellites against solar storms.
But we can harden our power supplies and grid operators can respond to put the grid into a safer mode during a storm to protect it.
BTW though they don’t say it there, you also may get temporary interference with landline telephone communications - but not cell phone communication.
Flares are very common - average of one X-class flare every 3 weeks through the cycle - and superflares are impossible
That number of 175 X-class flares per cycle corresponds to about one every three weeks on average (though there would be much fewer at solar minimum)
You never need to worry about solar flares. They are only of interest to geeks.
An X-class flare only matters for over the horizon HF (High Frequency) radio and radar and has already happened when you get the alert as it gets here at speed of light. But few people use over the horizon radio nowadays and those affected will be very used to the disruptions.
As for superflares, Astronomers found some stars that looked like our sun that did superflares but it was obvious that our sun has never done one at least since the moon formed, from the moon rocks, so that's millions of millennia, so they never really thought there was a realistic possibility in our millennium- but the question was why not, and could it happen in the far future?
Anyway - they found out that the stars that do those superflares have some differences from our sun and that our sun can never do them. Details here:
More about effects on pilots - no risk at ground level - and a single flight over the poles during a solar storm is only a tenth of total dose from natural radiation per year
Even in the worst solar storms there is no risk at ground level, the Earth's atmosphere is equivalent to about 10 meters thickness of water protecting us and the somewhat lower energy particles from the solar storms are just not able to get through in enough numbers to harm us in any way.
It only matters to astronauts and also to pilots flying in jets very high over the poles - ordinary passengers don't need to bother but frequent fliers especially pilots who often fly over the poles need to avoid them during events with high levels of ionizing radiation as it can increase their lifetime dose of radiation enough to make a difference to their lifetime risk of cancer. Even then, a single flight during a solar storm is only a tenth of the total dose for a year from natural radiation we are all exposed to, so you'd have to do many flights over the poles during solar storms to be affected.
. Solar Flares Increase Radiation Risk on Commercial Aircraft - Eos
More about the effects on power supplies - with modern analyes - worst case scenario some local interruptions for hourS
The alarmist articles say that many transformers would be affected and it would take years to repair them all, during which many people would have no power. What do the detailed studies say?
There’s a good overview paper here: The Economic Impact of Space Weather: Where Do We Stand? and I found these sources by following through from that. It suggests the economic impact could be large so if you want the details see that report - similar in economic effect to a major hurricane or worse. With widespread power cuts. But modern studies don’t support the idea of large numbers of transformers destroyed and blackouts lasting for years. Rather, the blackouts would last for hours, though repairs would take weeks to months.
Amongst many cites there, they cite two major studies, on the matter of impact on transformers and the power grid, one from the UK and one for the US. This one from 2013 studying the effects on the UK concluded, for a superstorm:
QUOTE STARTS
The reasonable worst case scenario would have a significant impact on the national electricity grid. Modelling indicates around six super grid transformers in England and Wales and a further seven grid transformers in Scotland could be damaged through geomagnetic disturbances and taken out of service. The time to repair would be between weeks and months. In addition, current estimates indicate a potential for some local electricity interruptions of a few hours. Because most nodes have more than one transformer available, not all these failures would lead to a disconnection event. However, National Grid’s analysis is that around two nodes in Great Britain could experience disconnection.”
. Effects of Geomagnetic Disturbances on the Bulk Power System
That’s two nodes out of over 600 that could experience disconnection (as they explain later)
So
6 transformers affected in England, 7 in Scotland
Repair time of weeks to months.
Some local electricity interruptions of a few hours
Most nodes have more than one transformer so not all the transformer failures would lead to customers getting disconnected from the power grid.
Effects on the USA - worst case scenario some older transformers of a certain design and near end of operational life may be damaged
The NERC who did a big study for the US in 2012 (North American Electric Reliability Corporation) comes to a similar conclusion. The most likely effect is voltage instability leading to powercuts that would be resolved in a matter of hours. Some older transformers would be damaged but they doesn’t support the conclusion of earlier reports that large numbers of transformers would be damaged.
Quoting from the conclusion of their executive summary:
QUOTE STARTS
“The most likely worst‐case system impacts from a severe GMD event and corresponding GIC flow is voltage instability caused by a significant loss of reactive power support11 simultaneous to a dramatic increase in reactive power demand. Loss of reactive power support can be caused by the unavailability of shunt compensation devices (e.g., shunt capacitor banks, SVCs) due to harmonic distortions generated by transformer half‐cycle saturation. Noteworthy is that the lack of sufficient reactive power support, and unexpected relay operation removing shunt compensation devices was a primary contributor to the 1989 Hydro‐Québec GMD‐induced blackout. “
“NERC recognizes that other studies have indicated a severe GMD event would result in the failure of a large number of EHV transformers. The work of the GMD Task Force documented in this report does not support this result for reasons detailed in Chapter 5 (Power Transformers), and Chapter 8 (Power System Analysis). Instead, voltage instability is the far more likely result of a severe GMD storm, although older transformers of a certain design and transformers near the end of operational life could experience damage, which is also detailed in Chapter 5 (Power Transformers).”
. Effects of Geomagnetic Disturbances on the Bulk Power System
I.e. transformers will not be damaged, except possibly some older ones and transformers near the end of their operational life.
The installed base of the EHT is around 2000 transformers ( with a maximum voltage rating greater than or equal to 345 kV) according to this report, and tens of thousands of smaller ones:
QUOTE STARTS
“The United States is one of the world’s largest markets for power transformers, with an estimated market value of over $1 billion USD in 2010, or almost 20 percent of the global market. The United States also holds the largest installed base of LPTs in the world. Using certain analysis and modeling tools, various sources estimate that the number EHV LPTs in the United States to be approximately 2,000.78
While the estimated total number of LPTs (capacity rating of 100 MVA and above) installed in the United States is unavailable, it could be in the range of tens of thousands, including LPTs that are located in medium voltage transmission lines with a primary voltage rating of 115 kV. Figure 11 represents the historical annual installment of LPTs in the United States, not including replacement demand. “
. Effects of Geomagnetic Disturbances on the Bulk Power System
What about economic effects?
In The Economic Impact of Space Weather: Where Do We Stand? then this was the main focus of the paper.
Some reports suggest economic effects from $100 billions through to trillions.
QUOTE STARTS
“The total economic loss varies between $0.5 tn and $2.7 tn based on calculations examining disruption to the global supply chain. An alternative methodology finds a total loss of $140–$613 bn. This is lower as it accounts for the “dynamic response of the global economy.” Losses to U.S. GDP are estimated to range between $136 bn and $613 bn over five years following the space weather event, with the worst affected states being Illinois and New York.”
That’s for a “worst-case scenario where there is significant transformer damage causing prolonged power outage”
However other studies based on power cuts as the main economic effects come to much lower figures. The economic effect of the August 14 2003 north east blackout was $4- 10 bn. The paper points out that there's an annual economic loss of between $104 bn and $164 bn from short blackouts.
QUOTE STARTS
“The RAE report focuses on the United Kingdom in particular, and its conclusion is reached on the basis of studies and assessments undertaken by the National Grid. In particular, it is noted that since 1997, newly installed transformers have employed a more GIC-resistant design, which strengthens resilience. Outages are therefore measured in hours to days, rather than months, but such events still have a considerable economic impact through primary and secondary losses.[149] As examples, the economic impact of Hurricane Katrina was estimated to be $81–$125 bn[150] and the August 14, 2003 northeast blackout was $4–$10 bn.[151] Analyses of historical blackout events in the United States indicate that even short blackouts, which occur several times during a year in the United States, sum up to an annual economic loss between $104 bn and $164 bn.[152] These figures are based on insurance industry pricing models for business interruption insurance. (Details on data and methodology are not publicly available.)”
Still if you can save $10 bn, this is something that is well worth planning for to prevent!
There would also be an economic effect on satellites and they cite a 2006 study that reached a figure of $70 bn for those.
On GPS, they say that
QUOTE STARTS
“During a major storm, complete loss of GNSS service for one day is estimated, with extended loss of service for three days. Although many systems can revert to backup technologies, the impact of the reduced accuracy over a prolonged multiday outage is not well understood or verified.”
There would also be effects on planes. They would lose GPS. They would also lose HF radio and planes in flight would be permitted to continue their flights but planes on the ground would not be able to take off.
QUOTE STARTS
A severe loss of HF radio may lead to communications with most aircraft in the north Atlantic being lost. Aircraft already in flight would continue, but those on the ground would probably not be allowed to take of.
So that would have an economic effect. It could also affect pipelines and railways, but there they just suggest that it would be possible to quantify the effects in future research, and don’t give any figures.
Grid assurance stockpile of mobile transformers and other hard to replace equipment in the USA
n 2015, 8 USA electricity companies under AEP have come together to create a stockpile of mobile large transformers and other hard to replace items so that they can restart a grid very fast after a low likelihood high impact scenario - they launched an independent organization called "Grid Assurance". Companies pay in a certain amount into the fund and it then creates a stockpile of equipment any of them can use if there is a hurricane or solar storm or terrorist attack etc.
. GRID: Power companies to create stockpile of transformers to counter attacks or natural disasters
This is now up and going and they are purchasing the equipment. Things like mobile grid power transformers (normally aren't mobile but are built in place) - and kept in working condition in a store and if needed is sold to any of them that need it, instead of it taking maybe months to replace it.
QUOTE STARTS
Grid Assurance has awarded contracts to purchase high-voltage transformers, circuit breakers and other critical equipment to enable subscribing utility companies to better respond to natural or man-made events impacting the energy transmission system. The equipment will be accessible by the end of 2019.
Grid Assurance provides subscribing transmission owners immediate access to equipment that historically could take manufacturers 12 to 18 months to deliver. These critical, long lead-time assets will be stored in secure warehouses until needed by companies. The inventory access, secure storage and logistics plans will allow subscribing utilities to more quickly respond to high impact, low frequency transmission grid events.
“As we move forward with procuring supplies of critical equipment to help speed recovery in events that impact the grid, we’ve worked closely with our customers and suppliers to ensure cost-effective pooling of this equipment,” said Grid Assurance Chief Executive Officer Michael Deggendorf. “More than 50% of the equipment will be supplied from North American manufacturers, which further enhances our ability to restock from secure sources.”
As part of a robust plan for disaster recovery for subscribing utilities, Grid Assurance is working with key logistics providers to arrange for delivery during catastrophic events. Having accessible equipment with known specifications and dimensions located in designated warehouses will expedite a utility’s ability to recover fully from a catastrophic transmission grid disruption.
. Grid Assurance Awards Contracts, Will Provide Service by Year-end
Video about it here:
Their website:
. Expanding Electric Grid Resilience and Recovery Capabilities - Grid Assurance
To get an idea of what these mobile transformers are like, this is one of the top manufacturers of them:
https://www.deltastar.com/mobile-substations/
This is from 2017, estimates 300 spare transformers, probably many more now as for instance Grid Assurance had only just started up then and is a widely used transformer backup supplier.
QUOTE STARTS
The five programs surveyed here are all voluntary, and additional research is needed to assess whether the majority of LPT [Large Power Transformer] owners are participants in one program or another. According to the information available, there are perhaps as many as 200 entities participating, with perhaps as many as 300 transformers. In addition, there is apparent overlap of LPTs and members among these programs, and thus, it is unclear how many LPT spares are truly available.
. Assessment of Large Power Transformer Risk Mitigation Strategies
Grid Assurance don't seem to give information on their public website about how many transformers they have stockpiled.
But presumably numbers are increased quite a bit by their stockpiles.
https://gridassurance.com/faqs/
NASA advance warning
With accurate advance warning, power engineers have quite a few options to protect the grid. With a day or two of notice, power grid companies can alter maintenance schedules to make sure that as many critical lines are up and running as possible.
Even with just 20 minutes of lead time – which is how long it could take for a CME to travel from our advanced warning satellite to Earth, a distance of nearly a million miles – grid operators can take steps to prevent blackouts and damage. One such step is injecting reserve power into the system, helping to stabilize the system voltage.
This is from 2016:
. NASA Helps Power Grids Weather Geomagnetic Storms
This is more recent work on the topic.
. NASA-enabled AI Predictions May Give Time to Prepare for Solar Storms - NASA
Was the Carrington event as major as it was originally thought to be?
Also new research on the Carrington event suggests it wasn't as major an event as it seemed to early researchers, probably no more major than several solar storms since then. The early data was misinterpreted.
Indeed there is skepticism about whether such a major event as the early papers estimated are even possible. See Comment on “The extreme magnetic storm of 1–2 September 1859” by B. T. Tsurutani, W. D. Gonzalez, G. S. Lakhina, and S. Alex
This papersummarizes it as:
QUOTE STARTS
“The major risk is attached to power distribution systems and there is disagreement as to the severity of the technological footprint. This strongly controls the economic impact. Consequently, urgent work is required to better quantify the risk of future space weather events.”
It’s - a good overview review paper, The Economic Impact of Space Weather: Where Do We Stand?
Preparing for once per century extreme electrical storms
Power companies can prepare and build in resilience to reduce the effect on the grids of a solar storm. To help with this, the USGS has prepared geoelectric hazard maps for most of the US, the Northern region a the eastern region down to Florida.
The hazards depend on the underlying geology. If the underlying rock is conductive then not much magnetic field builds up, if it is resistive then a lot of magnetic field builds up above it. They used observations of the effects of magnetic storms to work out which areas are most vulnerable. These are example observations for 14th March 1989.
Observed (a) geomagnetic field, (b) geoelectric field, (c) geoelectrically induced voltage, and (d) average line electric field at 01:00 UTC on 14 March 1989. T
They then used this together with an analysis of geomagnetic storms to make a once per century extreme prediction of the geoelectric field.
During a one in a century extreme solar storm, 322 of the 1079 sites, nearly 30% of the surveyed land area, have an estimated geoelectric field of at least one volt per kilometer.
They then took this one step further and mapped this onto the grid system. The analysis will need to be redone if the network is changed. They worked out the effects independently for all 17,258 transmission lines. As you can see it is localized, some particular lines that will be affected more than others (the brighter lines in these diagrams):
Once per century extreme geomagnetic storm predictions for
a) transmission line voltages - the voltage difference along the line (more for longer lines in a constant electric field)
b) transmission line electric field - voltage per kilometer.
The field strengths in volts per kilometer vary hugely,
Once‐per‐century geoelectric field strengths span more than 3 orders of magnitude from a minimum of 0.02 V/km at a site in Idaho to a maximum of 27.2 V/km at a site in Maine, with nearly 30% of the surveyed land area exceeding 1 V/km.
They discuss several regions in more detail, one is a site near Denver Colorado which shows the importance of a high resolution survey.
We saw this map in the introduction, here it is again, it shows the effect of the underlying rock on a small part of the grid around the city of Denver. Power lines are colour coded according to the maximum voltage expected in a once per century solar storm. File:Https://qph.cf2.quoracdn.net/main-qimg-e8cfb3790b413dae7ffc24a11d756bb4-pjlq
The dots show the survey sites used as the basis of their predictions, the coloured lines show the predicted maximum voltage in each grid line. Most of the area is low risk because the Denver basin is conductive, but some areas are at high risk due to the resistive Rocky mountain material of crystalline rock.
They highlighted the need for more detailed surveys. The yellow dot near the middle of this map is a single survey point that showed up a potential hazard which would otherwise be missed. However, it may well over-estimate the effect on the grid also, as higher resolution would be needed to show how the resistance varies between this data point and the surrounding high conductance data points.
A point with a high estimate of the local geomagnetic field in a region where it is mainly low can lead to overestimating the surrounding risk, and a point with a low estimate in a region where it is high could lead to under estimating the risk. A 100‐year Geoelectric Hazard Analysis for the U.S. High‐Voltage Power Grid
The voltage that builds up in a once per century solar storm depends on the resistance or conductance of the underlying rock and the length of the power line. A long powerline over resistant rock is most at risk. A short powerline over conductive rock is least at risk. The total voltage is the voltage per kilometer added up over the length of the power line and this is what can damage step up / down transformers at either end of the power line in a solar storm.
This then can be used by power companies to meet their requirements for resilience to once per century geoelectric hazards.
They found areas of both higher, and lower hazard than the 100-year values the companies are currently using.
Paper here: A 100‐year Geoelectric Hazard Analysis for the U.S. High‐Voltage Power Grid
Press release here
There are similar projects underway in many countries around the world to improve their understanding of the effects of these once in a century extreme global storms to build in resilience. For instance the UK is doing a four year three million dollar project called Space Weather Impact on Ground-based Systems (SWIGS) which started in 2017 so should end in 2021.
There are many other projects of a similar nature around the world in countries such as Russia, Japan, New Zealand, many European countries, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Ethiopia, the Nordic countries and several more. For details see:
Then - if you do get a solar storm - you can act quickly and protect your grid, so predictions help too and these vulnerability maps tell companies which power lines they need to pay particular attention to - right down to the detail of - "we have a solar storm coming and it looks like a big one so we need to act to try to do something to protect these particular lines".
As you see from the map most power lines are not at significant risk. Only the bright ones here need particular attention to make sure the attached transformers are resilient. They already have maps like this that they use but this one is more detailed and will help them do it more accurately.
Interview about this study in IEEE magazine, the 1989 powercut happened in Quebec because it has old and electrically resistive rock and also has long powerlines.
I’ve reformatted this quote using bullet points, and slightly rephrased, Lowe said:
QUOTE STARTS
The geomagnetic disturbance was global, but the effect was prominent for Quebec because
Quebec has old and geologically resistive rock,
Also, power grid systems in Quebec have very long lines, meaning that the integration of electric field along the lines [produced] very high voltage
How a power grid responds to a powerful solar storm is primarily a function of three factors
1. the intensity and locality of the storm itself;
2, the geological responsiveness of the minerals in any region to electrical activity in the atmosphere
3. the orientation of high-voltage lines. If the geoelectric field during a solar storm points, say, north-south, it’ll induce the highest voltages in electrical lines traveling north-south.
On 1. they say that
QUOTE STARTS
“the United States avoided the brunt of the 1989 geomagnetic storm because it happened to be more concentrated above the Canadian province.”
Effects on satellites
Drag can lead to satellites de-orbiting sooner. There is more drag during solar storms but the satellites won’t fall out of orbit instantly - this is more a case of a shorter lifetime for satellites if they have lots of solar storms in their lifetime.
. Past Solar Superstorms Help NASA Scientists Understand Satellite Risks
Solar storms can delay phase and frequency of GPS signals needing error correction. This could mean glitches for GPS during a storm.
. Errors Correction in GPS System Caused by Solar Activity
During solar storms satellites can get computer glitches from to cosmic radiation - and there are solutions. Computers do still work in space
Some ways satellites can be harmed in a solar storm - most are temporary and they reset once it’s over
During solar storms high energy particles can get through the walls of satellites and then they can deposit a charge inside of it. With several of these events static charges can build up and then discharge. Sometimes also charges build up on one side of a satellite and discharge to the other side. These can lead to:
Memory glitch - leading to a “soft reboot” after which the satellite is fine again
Permanent damage to microcircuits - this can sometimes be fatal to the satellite
damage to solar cells - gradually degrading over several solar storms
Damage to attitude control system so the satellite can’t stay properly orientaed any more
The damage might not be noticed until after the solar storm. Based on 6000 faults for the Soviet Kosmos satellites, for low altitude satellites (below 1000 km) the peak for malfunctions is 5 days after the sorm and fo rhigh altitude satellites, 2 days after the storm.
See Solar Storm Threat Analysis, 2007 More techy details in this student paper from MIT surveying the topic.
What we can do - our satellites are protected with shielding
One way to reduce damage is with shielding. This is an example for a cubesat, the cubesat can also be designed internally to protect against surges of current or ionization damage
.
Details here (the photo is from page 176, section 6.4.3 Shields-1 Mission, Radiation Shielding for CubeSat Structural Design) . State-of-the-Art Small Spacecraft Technology
This shielding is not needed for anything on the ground as the particles can’t get through the atmosphere.
Other ways we protect satellites - backup computers and error correction memory
We have many spacecraft in deep space and they, of course, are hit by numerous solar storms without the protection of Earth’s magnetic field.
Also we do get glitches even in low Earth orbit, even indeed at ground level from cosmic radiation.
We have many spacecraft in space already - both within the Earth's magnetic field but outside the protection of its atmosphere like Hubble or way out in space like the Perseverance and Curiosity rovers on Mars.
A small number of cosmic rays do get to ground level but harmless - example of a cosmic ray glitch from Supermario
This is an example of a soft memory glitch. Just one memory location affected.
We sometimes get glitches on Earth too from cosmic rays evern through our atmosphere. This is a video clip of a supermario glitch, due to a cosmic ray event:
This is a replay by a programmer who programmatically flipped the bit at the right moment and duplicated the effect.
QUOTE STARTS
"During the race, an ionizing particle from outer space collided with DOTA_Teabag's N64, flipping the eighth bit of Mario's first height byte. Specifically, it flipped the byte from 11000101 to 11000100, from "C5" to "C4". This resulted in a height change from C5837800 to C4837800, which by complete chance, happened to be the exact amount needed to warp Mario up to the higher floor at that exact moment. This was tested by pannenkoek12 - the same person who put up the bounty - using a script that manually flipped that particular bit at the right time, confirming the suspicion of a bit flip."
. How An Ionizing Particle From Outer Space Helped A Mario Speedrunner Save Time
How satellites cope with these glitches - error correction - partiy bit - just reboot if the memory is corrupted
The simplest solution to issues like this is to add something called a "parity bit" to check to see if any bits have been flipped. It's a simple idea - let's look at just four bit numbers for simplicity.
In a binary number such as, say, 0011 (binary for 3) the parity bit is set to 1 if there is an odd number of bits, and 0 if there is an even number. In this case it would be 0. So it would be stored as [0]0011. If, say, the first bit was flipped, [0]1011 turning 3 into 11, then the parity bit will mis-match the number which should be [1]1011. So the computer detects an error and restarts the calculation or shows an error message or recovers from it as gracefully as possible.
Supercomputers have to do this.
The Cray supercomputer in 1976 made 152 errors in 6 months in 70 megabits of memory.
As computers got faster and more complex with more memory and more processing power, they made more errors like this.
It depends on the technology, and SRAM used for the cache and internal registers of a CPU is particularly vulnerable because it operates at low voltage with few electrons.
One figure from 2007 is 1,150 SEUs [Single Event Upsetrs in a billion hours for one megabits of SRAM
So roughly speaking 1 per million hours in every megabit. Or 8 per million hours per megabyte of SRAM
QUOTE . In this paper, we use the ITRS 2007 [21] predicted value of Poisson rate λ, which is 1,150 SEUs in 10 9 hours for one megabits of SRAM built in the High Performance CMOS technology . Soft Error Benchmarking for L2 Cache with PARMA
That means every 1 MB of SRAM will have a bit flip on average once every 14 years or so 1 million / (8*24*365)
A longish novel is about half a million letters (100,000 words at 5 letters per word), so you would expect one of those letters to change every 28 years if it was stored in SRAM though text would normally be stored in the more stable DRAM.
It's not a lot of errors but enough so we need to protect memory against these errors.
How satellites cope with these glitches - error correction bits - often can actually correct the corrupted bit
Parity bits aren't good enough, if you've been calculating for a day and then your program crashes because of a parity bit and you have to start again. Indeed with modern supercomputers with large amounts of parallel processing, there are many parity bit errors every hour.
So nowadays they use something more sophisticated, error correcting code, which makes the data nearly an eighth longer, but it lets you actually correct single bit errors. ECC can also detect (and sometimes correct) simultaneous flip of two bits. It can't detect /correct simultaneous flips of 3 bits but this will be very rare.
Background to ECC here:
. Evaluation of Error-Correcting Codes for Radiation-Tolerant Memory
Supercomputers also automatically save the calculations so that if you detect an error you can't recover from, you go back to the last saved state of your program.
These memory errors can happen at ground level in ordinary conditions but they are very rare - about one bit flip per gpu every 3.2 years
It's not just the fast neutrons from cosmic rays impacting directly, it's also thermal neutrons - those fast neutrons slowed down and then they can hit a boron nucleus and turn it into a lithium nucleus giving off an alpha particle. This turns out to cause many more bit flips than the fast neutrons.
The average GPU could have a bit flip every 3.2 years (because it has so many bits in it).
If you translate this to self driving cars they calculate:
When it comes to cars, with roughly 268 million cars in the EU and about roughly 4% – or 10 million cars – on the road at any given time, there would be 380 errors per hour, which is a concern.
. Cosmic challenge: protecting supercomputers from an extraterrestrial threat – Physics World
So if we do have widespread self driving cars in the future, we may need protection from this, much as for supercomputers.
Spacecraft have a high level of inbuilt protection from memory corruption errors
All this is especially important for spacecraft because they don't have the protection of Earth's atmosphere and many don't have the protection of its magnetic field either.
Anything from CubeSats all the way to big exploration rovers - or the ISS, needs to constantly check for and correct memory errors.
Generally they have error correction codes but they also have triply redundant memory and if a blip flips in any of the three locations the data was stored to, it's restored to the majority vote value (this is in addition to the error correction codes if they don't fix it).
This is a summary of how it works for CubeSats
QUOTE STARTS
Error-Correcting Code Memory
Error-Correcting Code (ECC) memory is capable of detecting and correcting bit errors in RAM and flash memory. In general, ECC works by storing a checksum for a portion of the memory. This checksum can be used to simply mark a portion of memory unstable. Additional processing can use the memory and checksums to correct single and sometimes multi-bit errors. The memory controller is responsible for managing the ECC memory during read and write operations (28).
Software Error Detection and Correction
Bit errors can be detected and corrected using software. In general, Error Detection and Correction (EDAC) algorithms use three copies of the memory to detect and correct bit discrepancies. Software routinely “scrubs” the memory, compares each of the three stored memory values, selects the majority value, and corrects the erroneous memory location. Software EDAC can be performed at the bit or byte level. Memory lifetime needs to be considered for software EDAC implementations, since every correction increases the write count to a memory location.
If the program detects a glitch that it can't fix with error correction codes - then normally the software reboots. Just like rebooting your computer if things go wrong as the last thing to try.
So for instance in a solar storm GPS satellites may well detect unrecoverable errors and if so would just reboot.
Satellites may get stuck in a “bootloop” in a major storM
If it is a serious problem or the storm continues it can get stuck in a bootloop - where it reboots but immediately encounters the same problem, and reboots again over and over. With Curiosity that was a big power drain and threatened to end the mission - so they switched to the backup computer and used it to analyse the problem.
Big satellites have a complete backup computer system on very important missions like the Mars rovers or the Hubble Space Telescope - two entire and separate systems and if one fails they can switch control to the backup system and use it to analyse the problems in the primary system. To deal with this, the Space Shuttle had three backup computers.
This is an example where NASA did that with the Hubble space telescope, had to switch to the backup computer.
. NASA Returns Hubble Space Telescope to Science Operations
This is an example of when the Curiosity Rover had to do that on Mars.
QUOTE STARTS
The rover has a pair of identical brains running a 5-watt RAD750 CPU. This chip is part of the PowerPC 750 family, but it has been custom designed to survive high-radiation environments as you’d find on Mars or in deep space. These radiation-hardened CPUs cost $200,000 each, and NASA equipped the rover with two of them.
When Curiosity landed on Mars in 2012, it used the “Side-A” computer. However, just a year later in 2013 (Sol 200), the computer failed due to corrupted memory. The rover got stuck in a bootloop, which prevented it from processing commands and drained the batteries. NASA executed a swap to Side-B so engineers could perform remote diagnostics on Side-A. In the following months, NASA confirmed that part of Side-A’s memory was unusable and quarantined it. They kept Curiosity on Side-B, though.
. NASA Switches Curiosity Rover to Backup Computer Following Glitch - ExtremeTech
So - there are many things we are doing and can do to make satellites more resilient to solar storms.
This includes material from my Debunking: NO - Solar Storms can’t end all life on Earth or do anything to us except short term localized power cuts and some effects on satellites and over the horizon radio which I updated with this new material on the latest research on effects of solar storms on power grids.
See also
Robert Walker's answer to What is the best way to blow up the entire Earth? [answer is NO]
Could our Sun explode? And what would the effects be of a major solar storm?
(this is included in that too)
For the south Atlantic magnetic anomaly see
For magnetic pole shift:
For geographic pole shift (out of date theory)
See also
Miyake events may be to do with solar protons - associated with solar flares not solar storms - however unlike the light from solar flares they are directional and often miss earth - if they do hit earth not much happens - no powercuts
The Miyake events are spikes of radioisotopes in tree rings for particular years. It’s hard to know what caused them. They can’t be gamma ray bursts, happen too often and too recently. They don’t harm Earth’s biosphere in any noticeable way.
There are many ideas about what caused them but none are totally convincing. One of the leading ideas is that they are caused by solar proton events from the sun. But new research has cast doubt on that hypothesis.
The issue is that
Some last longer than a year - a solar storm only lasts hours to days - and a solar particle event lasts much less time.
Trees are affected the same way in the polar and tropical regions, a solar storm should affect polar regions more than tropical regions which are more protected by the Earth’s magnetic field.
If they were caused by solar flares, we'd expect to see more at solar maximum (solar storms can happen any time in the cycle but more often at solar max) and they don't happen at solar max preferentially.
They may still be due to solar storms. They can't be gamma-ray bursts, too many of them. Not associated with supernovae.
If connected with solar storms they are to do with solar particle events, maybe sometimes we get more than at other times. Not to do with solar flares (which are light) and not to do with the magnetic effects. E.g. Carrington - there might well have been a solar particle event but the solar particles can go in a different direction from the magnetic field and if there was one with Carrington it clearly missed Earth. While on other occasions the solar particle event might hit Earth and the magnetic storm miss us. So they needn't have been associated with magnetic storms and this doesn't change the estimates about the maximum for a solar storm.
It has no effect on the predictions for solar storms or solar flares. It's about solar particle events and they aren't very well studied historically as they were hard to detect until recently.
So - they might be a probe into past solar particle events but they are very low resolution because they are only down to 1 year and some of them last more than a year (so presumably would include more than one solar particle event).
Whatever they are, they happen only once every thousand years on average, only a 1% chance per decade. They don’t harm us physically or the biosphere. They might well cause problems for astronauts who might have to shelter from cosmic radiation - they do have a shelter for solar storms. And they might mean that jets have to fly at lower altitudes to protect passengers for the duration of the event - that is if it is indeed an event due to particles coming from outside of Earth’s atmosphere.
https://www.sciencenews.org/article/solar-storm-radiation-trees-miyake-event
If it is connected with solar flares, it is about solar energetic particle events or solar proton events. Very fast moving. The first ones get to Earth within 20 minutes of a solar flare andn continue to get here for hours. They are associated with solar flares but not necessarily with solar storms. They travel in particular directions and so can miss Earth while if there is a solar flare you can see it in a specially designed solar scope so long as it is on the side of the sun facing you.
Solar storms are a different thing, they get here in days and they are the result of coronal mass ejections. Solar flares may not have coronal mass ejections and vice versa. Often associated but they are different things.
In the case of the Carrington storm, since there was also a solar flare, there probably was a solar energetic particle event (SPE) - but it missed Earth so they didn't get those isotopes forming.
SPEs like this don't have magnetic effects. So they can't cause power cuts so doesn't affect the calculations about solar storms.
You could have a power cut with a highly energetic once per thousand years SPE missing Earth or not have one with it hitting Earth.
You can have a solar storm without a solar flare at all, and you can have a solar flare without a solar storm.
If you have an SPE there must have been a solar flare but a solar flare can have an SPE that misses Earth.
Also there is no risk from superflares.
It's quite likely that these historical solar energetic particle events were associated with solar storms too and had magnetic effects but it's not inevitable that they did.
Since the Carrington storm SPE missed Earth you can't compare them easily with the Carrington storm.
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