EU parliament far right gains will have minimal effect - except for possibly immigration policy - a temporary single issue increase - voting is very volatile in EU elections
- not a Federal parliament, much less important than US elections
This is about the EU parliament which is nothing like as important as the US federal government, it can only act on some unifying policies between the countries, and this surge is a small increase of the right-wing minority to 62 with 361 needed for the majority
.
Text on graphic:
720- seats
361 for majority.EPP largest party (as before) selects president, likely Ursula von der Leyen, but needs majority vote to confirm.
Many EPP policies are to the left even of Bernie Sanders in terms of US politics.
Even far right support universal health care.
Votes in different blocks for different issues.
EU Charter of rights protects LGBT
- no effect on LGBT coalition.
- main effect is on immigration policy
- weakens climate / biodiversity coalition but with most laws already
passed
The Left 36..
S&D, center left, 135
Greens / EFA 53
Liberal Renew 79
EPP, center right, 186
National Conservative ECR, center right and far right, 73
ID, right and far right, 58
Non Inscrits (wide range) 45
Others (wide range) 55
For scared LGBT people, basic rights are protected by the Charter of Fundamental Rights of the European Union. This is like the US Constitution and its bill of rights: the Charter is mandated by the Treaty on European Union which set up the EU. Those guaranteed rights can't be taken away by legislation in parliament.
The EU recommends all states to prohibit conversion therapy for trans
Abortion gay marriage etc are individual per country, the EU Parliament can't pass laws like that but most countries have gay marriage. The Netherlands was the first country in the world to add gay marriage in 2001. Belgium was second in the world in 2003.
. LGBT rights in the European Union - Wikipedia
INCREASE IN FAR RIGHT ISN’T THAT LARGE, 118 to 131 for ECR + IDD
[2024] ECR + ID: 73+58 = 131
[2019] ECR + ID: 49+69 = 118Provisional, still counting votes
Graphic from: Far right makes significant gains in European parliament elections
It’s best to compare the outgoing and incoming parliament, as the UK left between 2019 and 2024.
Based on that the ECR + ID gained 13 seats or about 10% of the far right in the new parliament.
But the ECR is not actually all far right so that’s an overestimate. For instance one of its parties, with 3 members, is the New Flemish Alliance from Belgium which is right to center right. New Flemish Alliance - Wikipedia. So you shouldn't count all the ECR as far right by any means. But it would be a long job to work out how many of them are far right. This is the list of ECR parties for the outgoing parliament. European Conservatives and Reformists - Wikipedia
Meanwhile we need to add
AfD 15 (was 9) In Germany, Far-Right Party Rises to 2nd Place in E.U. Election
Fideze (Viktor Organ's party from Hungary): 11 (was 13) Orban party loses major support in Hungary's EU election
Poland's Confederation party : 6 (was 0) 2024 european parliament election poland seats
Bulgaria's pro-Kremlin Revival party : 3 (was 0)
Figures from here: 5 things to know about the EU election results
That's 73 + 58 + 15 + 10 + 6 + 3 = 165
Was 49 + 69 + 9 + 13 = 140
So overall an increase from 140 to 165.
Some especially of the ECR in that list will be center right or right rather than far right so those are over-estimates.
NOT A RIGHT WING EUROPE, NOT HERE TO STAY
1. even the far right here support universal health care, and most countries would count as left in US politics on LGBT too.
2. Poland shifted to centre cementing the shift it did in its elections to Tusk's centrist pro democracy party. Portugal shifted to left a bit. The Netherlands got a surprise 3 seats for the socialist and democrat green party.
3. though it is not part of the EU, the UK is set for a big shift to the left w with a near certainty
3. None of this is here to stay - it doesn't 'even work like that in US politics. Many change vote from one election to the next. It is even less so in Europe. We vote far more according to the issues than according to the party.
Many Green party members lost their seat this time around
many far right party members likely lose their seat next time.
Also it is not because of any change in support for far right ideology in Europe.
more to do with far right parties like Le Pen's party softening their far right policies and appealing to voters based on concerns about immigration.
The population has largely the same views but voting differently as a protest vote against immigration policies and far right becoming less far right to appeal to them.
Ater all
there was a big green wave in the last election
now a far right wave,
both driven by young voters
so where is the loyalty to the Green party?
It doesn’t work like that, similarly there will be no loyalty to the far right
Instead:
There will still be a very large Green party but you can't say that all previous Green candidates will get re-elected
Any Far-right candidates elected this time may well lose their jobs next EU election if immigration is no loner a big issue.
Voters often vote very differently in the EU elections and in the elections in their own country, voting for different parties for the EU than they do locally.
It is also seen by most people as less important than their country elections and gets far less TV coverage.
NOT A FEDERAL GOVERNMENT OF EUROPE, FAR LESS IMPORTANT AND DOESN’T WORK LIKE MOST GOVERNMENTS
Also, the EU parliament is NOT a federal government of Europe. It has a much more minor role in European politics than the US elections in the US. The turnout is typically low and it tends to favour smaller parties, e.g. UKIP in the UK often did well in the EU elections but did very poorly in the UK elections.The EU doesn’t function like a normal parliament. It has large numbers of parties in voting blocks.
The far right parties are unlikely to form a voting block on anything except perhaps immigration. On almost everything else they are divided voting on both sides of coalitions and cancelling each other out.
The "rise in the far right" in some European countries is not usually because of increase in support for far right ideology, it's much more because of protest about things like immigration, the economy and inflation, The far right have moderated some of their more extreme policies in order to be more acceptable for this protest vote.
No change on the LGBT coalition majority. The far right are too divided to make a difference.
Not going to lead to EU breakup UK example of Brexit has led to very few in the far right having any appetite to leave the EU.
Nothing to do with NATO and no possibility of it weakening NATO (just listing this as a worry of some I help, NATO is a separate organization altogether. Many EU countries are in NATO but not all and several countries are in NATO and not in the EU including UK, Norway, US and Canada are in NATO but not in the EU)
no change in support for Ukraine (far right are divided but most support Ukraine)
Reduction in support for green measures but most of the most important legislation is passed already and wouldn't be reversed.
main material change is likely to be on immigration and tougher immigration policies.
Then some misunderstandings about the power of the EU parliament
It is not a federal government of the EU it is one of several bodies and its limited in its role and power. It is nowhere near as important as the Federal government is for US voters.
It isn't run like a government, no party has a majority and they don't have a ruling coalition either and aren't required to.
It splits up in different ways on different topics and doesn't have anything like the government whips, nobody forces them to vote in particular ways on anything.
The president is selected by the European Council not by parliament though she has to get a majority in parliament in a secret ballot (nobody finds out the party split of the vote).
Ursula von Der Leyen is the only contender at present and her party is projected to remain the largest party. However she also needs a majority vote in parliament to be elected, by a secret ballot. She likely needs to do quid for pro agreements on appointments for countries to the EU Council and parliamentary commitments achieve the presidency.
So you can see how very different the EU Parliament is from the US Federal government in how it operates or what it can do.
This is about how the president is chosen. See how many groupings she needs to get - if she gets the Greens behind her that by itself would make a big difference to how easy it is to get re-elected.
Von der Leyen’s potential partners in the Parliament
And this which has a click bait title but is reasonably accurate otherwise. It will be difficult but not impossible.,,
It is so likely that she is re-elected that these articles aren't even suggesting a likely contender for the position but it may be tricky for her.
Her party is sure to remain the largest party in the EU parliament which gives it advantages in things like setting the agenda for discussions. And any president will have to be one her party judges to be suitable.
In short, a far right surge could lead to a slow down of some things but not going to change the basic momentum. And this is just for this election, the EU elections are volatile and it likely changes again next time.
This is not locking in voters as far right and they are not voting based on far right values but more because of short term issues of immigration. The far right get these votes by appealing to particular short term issues and by moving towards the center with their other views so as not to be so outrageous as to prevent people voting for them.
It has no effect on support for Ukraine (far right are divided on this) or on the coalition on gender equality issues. No risk of breaking up the EU because the far right have moved away from their EU skeptic position, softened it after seeing what a mess Brexit was and how difficult it was it's more about attempts at reform of the EU but not much they can do there either.
You won't see much change for anything except possibly immigration legislation.
EU PARLIAMENT OFTEN BRINGS OUT MINOR PARTIES BECAUSE IT IS SEEN AS LESS IMPORTANT - EXAMPLE OF NIGEL FARAGE WHEN UK WAS PART OF THE EU
Because the EU parliament is seen as not very important, the EU elections bring out smaller parties and aren't necessarily predictive of how voters will vote in their separate country elections.
E.g. in the UK Nigel Farage who is far right in UK politics got lots of votes for the EU elections and was a prominent figure in the EU parliament, from 2004 through to Brexit, but has never been an MP in the UK. He might possibly be elected for the first time as an MP this year for Reform UK but it is not at all certain and he may well not get in this year either. In all that time lots of people voted for his party in the EU elections but they didn't translate into votes in the UK elections.
He will stand for Clacton for Reform UK where he has a decent chance but the former Reform UK candidate for Clacton is standing against him so may split the vote Reform Candidate Dislodged By Nigel Farage To Run As Independent Against Him . He also has Heritage against him and UKIP (his own former party). Clacton - UK General election 2024 and the sitting MP there who has a huge majority, Giles Watling.
Reform UK is projected to have between 0 and 4 seats with a best prediction of 0 seats General Election Prediction
The EU parliament votes with different ways for different topics.
NO EFFECT ON THE LGBT COALITION AND IT WAS NOT A VOTE ON LGBT
The coalition for LGBT votes is not likely to be affected.
QUOTE A centre + left coalition (S&D + RE+ G/EFA + the Left) usually won on civil liberties and justice and home affairs, development, employment and social affairs, environment, and women’s rights and gender equality.
[GO ON TO SAY THIS WILL NOT BE AFFECTED]
., A sharp right turn: A forecast for the 2024 European Parliament elections
LGBT counts as gender here for "gender equality".
It is not a shift to the right in views on LGBT in the public.
It wasn't a vote on gender rights at all, the big issues were immigration and on inflation / economics.
Europe is very welcoming for LGBT. For instance Eurovision Song Contest winners are often LGBT and many presenters, sports commentators etc are gay. Also many of our comedians, actors etc. It is just accepted and not seen as an issue at all in most European countries.
Same sex marriage is legal in most Western European countries, with the exception of Italy.
The first countries in Europe to legalize same sex marriage were
Netherlands, 2001 (first in the world)
Belgium, 2003 (second in the world)
Spain, 2005
Norway and Sweden, 2009
Iceland and Portugal, 2010
Denmark 2012
France, 2013
UK, 2014
Finland and Germany, 2017
Austria, 2019
Switzerland, 2022
. Same-Sex Marriage Around the World
NO EFFECT ON SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE
The far right are very divided on Ukraine with most of them pro supporting Ukraine against Russia, only Bulgaria is really pro Russia.
There's a detailed analysis here. A sharp right turn: A forecast for the 2024 European Parliament elections
As an example, they are very divided on Ukraine with most of them pro supporting Ukraine against Russia, only Bulgaria is really pro Russia.
Also on EU, Le Pen has softened her Euroskepticism. The main anti-EU parties are in Sweden, Finland and Poland - the other far right parties are pro Europe.
GREEN DEAL ALREADY IMPLEMENTED AND PROGRESSIVES CAN CONSOLIDATE THIS BY EMPHASIZING THE BENEFITS OF RENEWABLES
On environmental issues, luckily the Green Deal is already largely implemented as policy. They could have prevented some of the most important environmental measures from being put in place but they are in place now. So all they can do is to slow it down not stop it.
Meanwhile the public are aware of climate change. There are three things that the public are responsive on
that renewables reduce reliance on fossil fuels after the Russian invasion of Ukraine
that we do need to keep up action on climate change when they see the effects of global warming
that there's an economic advantage for a country that keeps ahead in the new green tech.
So progressives can help by emphasizing that.
They don't see any change as likely on gender equality, woman's rights etc.
The right-wing surge predicted by the polls has raised concern that a bolstered Eurosceptic camp could strain the coalition of progressive, pro-European parties that has reigned over Brussels for decades.
But these right-wing parties remain deeply disunited on a raft of critical issues - in particular foreign policy, the EU’s support for Ukraine and the rule of law. These divisions mean that forming a united right-wing bloc in the European Parliament is currently inconceivable. EU's divided right wing can disrupt if it finds greater unity: experts
It goes on to look to see if it can lead to any changes.
As for the idea that this is anti-democracy - most of the far right in Europe are to do with immigration as their main focus - or at least the main reason people voted for them, just as in the UK with Brexit.
It doesn't mean that people in the EU are shifting towards far right ideas as in restriction of liberties.
DETAILED ANALYSIS BASED ON PROJECTED VOTE SHARE BEFORE THE VOTE
A much more detailed analysis here based on a particular projected vote share in the EU elections goes into great detail.,
QUOTE STARTS
The results indicate that the European Parliament will likely take a sharp turn to the right after June 2024. While the parliament is not the most significant EU institution when it comes to foreign policy, the way in which the political groups align after the elections, and the impact that these elections have on national debates in member states, will have significant implications for the European Commission’s and Council’s ability to make foreign policy choices, most notably in implementing the next phase of the European Green Deal.
...
The results show that the two main political groups in the parliament – the European People’s Party (EPP) and the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D) – will likely continue to lose seats
...Despite this, we expect the EPP to remain the largest group in the parliament, and therefore maintain most agenda-setting power, including over the choice of the next commission president.
[Then describe previous voting patterns fo the various coalitions and their effects on policy, these are likely to continue]
Based on the analysis of recorded (roll-call) votes in the European Parliament collected by VoteWatch, different coalitions have tended to dominate in different policy areas in 2019-2024:
- A centrist grand coalition (EPP + S&D, usually also with RE) typically won on budgets, budgetary control, culture and education, economic and monetary affairs, foreign affairs, internal market and consumer protection, legal affairs, and transport and tourism.
- A centre + left coalition (S&D + RE+ G/EFA + the Left) usually won on civil liberties and justice and home affairs, development, employment and social affairs, environment, and women’s rights and gender equality.
- A centre + right coalition (EPP + RE + ECR, and sometimes ID) usually won on agriculture and rural development, fisheries, industry and research, and international trade.
Our research suggests that in most of these policy areas, these coalitions and winning patterns are likely to continue, at least at the start of the next parliamentary term. For example, on foreign affairs, such as EU support for Ukraine, the majority in the next European Parliament is likely to back a continuation of the type of financial, logistical, and military aid that Western states have been approving for Kyiv since February 2022.
...
Furthermore, support for Ukraine in the rest of the parliament might also soften as national parties start to respond to the changing opinions of their voters, expressed by their votes in the European Parliament elections.
Nevertheless, our analysis suggests two significant shifts in coalition patterns. Firstly, the smaller size of the centrist grand coalition, even with RE support, is likely to mean that it will no longer be as dominant on some policy issues. In particular on economic and monetary affairs and internal market and consumer protection – where the grand coalition has won votes in the current parliament by smaller margins – we could see a significant shift to the right, as the EPP looks to partners to its right rather than to the S&D.
[These changes in the EU seem unlikely to be that important for support for Ukraine - especially as they have already made multi-year commitments]...
On civil liberties and justice and home affairs, this could have major implications for EU migration and asylum policies, where there is likely to be a majority in the European Parliament that supports very restrictive immigration policies and will seek to push the commission to reform the EU’s asylum policy framework to allow more discretion for member states and to limit any sharing of refugee allocations.
...In the current parliament there has been a narrow majority in favour of the EU imposing sanctions (such as withholding budget payments) on member states in which the rule of law is backsliding – in particular in Hungary and Poland. But after June 2024 it is likely to be harder for the centrist and centre-left MEPs (in RE, S&D, G/EFA, the Left, and parts of EPP) to hold the line against the continued erosion of democracy, rule of law, and civil liberties in Hungary and any other member state that might head in that direction.
[ on environmental issues]
But the biggest policy implications of the 2024 European Parliament elections are likely to concern environmental policy. In the current parliament, a centre-left coalition (of S&D, RE, G/EFA, and the Left) has tended to win on environmental policy issues, but many of these votes have been won by very small margins.
Perhaps the best illustration of this is what would have happened if the key vote on the EU’s nature restoration law was held after the 2024 elections. The law forces member states to restore at least 20 per cent of the EU’s land and seas by 2030, with binding targets to restore at least 30 per cent of degraded habitats by 2030, rising to 60 per cent by 2040 and 90 per cent by 2050. The key vote was on 12 July 2023, on a motion by the EPP to reject the commission’s proposal outright. The proposal to reject failed by only 12 votes (312 in favour, 324 against), and the parliament then went on to accept the commission’s proposal, with a series of votes against amendments from the groups on the right to water down the proposed actions.
...
As a result, a key pillar of the EU’s Green Deal would have been rejected. The dramatic increase in the number of MEPs to the right of the EPP is likely to seriously limit the EU’s actions to tackle the climate crisis. The good news there is that this key pillar of EU's Green Deal has ALREADY been implemented so it is too late for them to change that.
Also the report gives recommendations for what to do about it:
Progressive policymakers need to start considering the trends that are driving these voting patterns and begin preparing narratives that can cut through them. Rather than allowing the discussion of costs and risks in driving forward the green transition, supporting Ukraine, or de-risking in international relationships to dominate the debate, they need to craft a clearer message about the economic and security imperatives to do these things, as it is these concerns that are driving voters’ thinking.
They need recognise the nuances in European citizens’ thinking and compete politically from their own positions of strength with proactive policies, rather than resorting to the fear-driven narratives that the far right is using successfully.
For example, on climate, after the supply insecurity brought about by Russia’s war on Ukraine, there is a public will to rely less on fossil fuels.
After the drastic weather events affecting many EU countries and reports of worse to come, there is a desire not to lose momentum on climate action, and with the new green competitiveness framing from the US, there is a will among the business community to embrace green tech – with support from their governments to de-risk supply chains, and with investment and the right regulatory and permitting environment.
. A sharp right turn: A forecast for the 2024 European Parliament elections
It may be harder for the new EU parliament to pass some green legislation but it will remain pro action on climate change and the EU has already passed a vast amount of green legislation and nearly all the main parties in Europe agree on need for climate action. Some far right are opposed. But it is mainly about potentially less action than no action and the action is already taken. Indeed - this is my own take on it not from the sources I read - but seems to me not surprising to have less green support because most of the action has already been done, and in many countries all the main parties are strongly pro action on climate change so there is less need for the Greens.
As an example, for the UK which I know well as I live here, the UK government gets portrayed by the media as weakening on its green agenda but the main thing that is going on is that in the run up to the next election whenever it is this year, it is trying to present Labour's plan as being too strict, but it does that mainly by misrepresenting what Labour actually plans. It also talks about a whole raft of its own Green measures it says it cancelled that were actually never plans. So it is all political spin. The UK Conservative party is doing its best to present itself as the party that is careful about spending on Climate change as a strategy to try to win votes.
All the main UK parties agree on the need to reach net zero by 2050 and they have differing ideas about how to do it.
Net Zero has been a legal obligation since Theresa May and nobody contests that in the UK political debates.
The conservative government is not far right and isn't anti-green.
I expect many of the others are the same, they have taken what is locally a minor issue and made it seem major.
It is well possible that there are fewer EU green MPs but that's partly because many of the parties have now adopted net zero policies and green targets and the EU as a whole has now adopted net zero as its goal.
This is that vote that passed narrowly. But it did pass and this means that the EU is committed pending acceptance by the EU security council.
QUOTE STARTS
It aims to restore at least 20% of the EU’s land and sea areas by 2030.
Within this wider goal, countries need to restore 30% of habitats covered by the new law (including forests, rivers and wetlands) that are already degraded by 2030. This increases to 60% by 2040 and at least 90% by 2050.
. Q&A: What does the EU ‘nature restoration’ law mean for climate and biodiversity? - Carbon Brief
See also:
Wikipedia has a long list of the various climate and nature bills the EU Has adopted
. European Green Deal - Wikipedia
On the far right, according to the polling it may be a mixture of far right parties with very different objective and moderate right. In that sort of a situation the moderate right may well get in coalitions with the moderate left rather than the far right. The far right are particularly disorganized in the EU parliament as they have such a range of different objectives they aren't necessarily natural partners with each other.
Also the far right gaining in popularity in some parts of Europe are not really for far right sentiment. It’s much more because of other issues like the economy or immigration.
SOME COUNTRIES SHIFTED LEFT AND CENTRIST PARTIES DID WELL
In this map the far right is the black ID grouping. It only got a majority in two countries, France and Austria. The light blue EPP got most votes in most countries. Netherlands is majority Green.
. European Parliament Election 2024 - Europe Elects
See also:
. EU elections: The winners and losers in Brussels and across Europe
The Netherlands green left increased to 3 seats making them the majority in Netherlands. EU elections live: Centre-right on course to strengthen majority in EU election, as far-right makes gains - BBC News
Portugal shifted left.
Poland surged from right to pro democracy centrist in its election in 2023 and the same trend has continued in the EU Parliament results
This is from 2023 elections in Poland:
Poland's Democratic Resurgence: From Backsliding to Beacon
Summary here:
In Poland, the European Union's largest eastern member, Prime Minister Donald Tusk's centrist Civic Coalition (KO) was set to win Sunday's European vote, an exit poll showed, taking a step towards establishing itself as the dominant force in the country after a campaign dominated by security concerns.
In Hungary, Prime Minister Viktor Orban's nationalist Fidesz party came first but posted its worst result in a national or EU election in nearly two decades, as support surged for the pro-European Tisza party, which is led by political newcomer Peter Magyar.
"We have shown that our choices, our efforts, have a much broader dimension than just our national issues ... we have shown that we are a beacon of hope for Europe," Tusk told supporters after the exit poll results were announced.
WHY THE AFD SURGED IN GERMANY - GOVERNMENT PROBLEMS, IMMIGRATION AND ECONOMY
As an example, the right wing party, the AfD surged in Germany early this year, not because of its far right beliefs but because of
government problems.
Immigration issues- Issues with inflation
budget crisis and issues with the economy
There I’m summarizing one of the paragraphs towards the end of this Washington Post article.
. germany-far-right-alternative-for-germany-afd-reckoning-protest-future/ (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/01/23/germany-far-right-alternative-for-germany-afd-reckoning-protest-future/)
However recently, the far right in the AfD started talking about illegally deporting vast numbers of immigrants from Germany. Though this could never happen, that they talked about it at all got many people in Germany out protesting against the AfD.
. Hundreds of thousands protest against far right in Germany
These things rise and fall, it's not a trend.
This is about how difficult it is for the far right in Europe to form a natural block in the EU parliament.
QUOTE STARTS
“Influence and impact in the European parliament isn’t about the numbers, it is about how coherent and cohesive your political group is,” said Mujtaba Rahman of Eurasia Group, a consultancy. “The far-right’s problem is that it is fundamentally divided, and this will undermine its ability to project power in Brussels.”
While they agree on the need to cut migration and scrap climate policies, there are sharp differences over support for Kyiv and the bloc’s pivot against Russia after it invaded Ukraine. ID tends to push for peace, which critics cast as sympathetic to the Kremlin, while ECR, which counts among its members Poland’s Law and Justice (PiS) party, is committed to a Ukrainian victory.
(Geert Wilders setback spells trouble for Europe’s far right)
UK ABOUT TO DO A TEMPORARY SURGE LEFT NEAR CERTAINTY WITH STRONG SUPPORT FOR RENEWABLES
The UK Is also in the middle of an election and it is an example of how volatile the electorate can be in Europe. People vote far more by issues and far less by parties than in the US. We seem likely to switch from a Conservative majority of 365–326 = 39 to a huge Labour majority, probably over 100 by Electoral calculus. With a 4% chance of a Labour minority in a coalition but no chance of a Conservative majority or minority coalition.
THESE FIGURES WILL CHANGE but this is how they are right now:
We have had election prediction mishaps but ever by anything like this so most people expect a Labour win this time and probably by a landslide and if not then in a coalition.
So that is a big swing to the left. The reason is not that the UK has suddenly become more liberal or left wing. It is rather a long series of own goals by the Conservative government including the disastrous short term of office of Liz Truss which caused economic problems they have been fighting to recover from ever since and Rishi Sunak seen as not solving the migrant crisis and Boris Johnson’s mishandling of the COVID pandemic (which wasn’t his strong suite).
Also because the Conservative government promised prosperity to deprived areas and is widely seen as having failed at that and those areas are mainly what propelled Boris Johnson to a re-election.
Many people will be voting Labour just to give the other team a go at fixing things and it’s Labour’s to lose so Labour are toning down on aspects of their policies that can put off some people such as the party that typically increases taxes, promising not to do that and instead funding their plans by boosting the economy.
Part of how they will do that is through a big ramp up in green renewables. Which the conservatives already are doing but Labour are vying to do much more.
For those who worry about net zero and climate change, the UK is not part of the EU but it is also in the middle of an election and Labour seem set to win by a landslide in July.
The conservatives are committed to net zero too. The UK first committed itself to net zero under Theresa May a conservative prime minister.
But the conservatives have made nuclear power central to their net zero plans which is slow to ramp up and expensive. Rishi Sunak and Boris Johnson also talked about making the UK a Saudi Arabia of wind energy (like the way Saudi Arabia is wealthy through its fossil fuels) because the UK has huge wind resources in the North Sea which could make it ia big exporter of electricity to Europe.
But the expansion of renewables hasn’t been as strong as it could be under Conservatives. Labour are pitching for a big expansion in renewables.
This is good for the economy so they are pitching it as an economic solution too.
In Scotland the SNP have always been strong on climate change / biodiversity. If Labour win seats from them it makes no difference on this particular issue.
It is a difficult time for SNP because the election will happen in the school holidays in Scotland and because it is immediately after they had to change their leader after Humza Yousaf had to stand down after a disagreement with the Scottish green party in the SNP coalition - the Green party feel the SNP are not being green enough.
MOVING QUICKLY ON GREEN ENERGY TRANSITIONS ALREADY SAVES MONEY AND MAKES IT MORE COST EFFECTIVE
“The data makes it clear that the quicker you move on clean energy transitions, the more cost effective it is for governments, businesses and households,” said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol. “If policy makers and industry leaders put off action and spending today, we will all end up paying more tomorrow. The first-of-a-kind global analysis in our new report shows that the way to make energy more affordable for more people is to speed up transitions, not slow them down. But much more needs to be done to help poorer households, communities and countries to get a foothold in the new clean energy economy.”
he report finds that incentives and greater support, particularly targeted at poorer households, can improve the uptake of clean energy technologies. This would allow all consumers, especially those who are less well-off, to fully reap the benefits of these technologies and the cost savings, while also supporting efforts to reach international energy and climate goals.
The report sets out a series of measures, drawing on proven policies from countries around the world, that governments can deploy to make clean technologies more accessible to all people. These include delivering energy efficiency retrofit programmes to low-income households; obliging utilities to fund more efficient heating and cooling packages; making highly efficient appliances more readily available; providing affordable clean transport options, including more support for public transport and second-hand EV markets; replacing fossil fuel subsidies with targeted cash transfers for the most vulnerable; and using carbon price revenues to tackle potential social inequities that may arise during energy transitions.
. Rapid rollout of clean technologies makes energy cheaper, not more costly - News - IEA
See also my
This is a reason to continue with the green policies in the EU now that they have been set in motion. We see that in the US too. They just make sound economic sense, even if Trump is elected in the US, the green renewables policies have already benefited many Republican states. So there is no way the inflation reduction act which established the basis for its net zero climate policies will be reversed.
MACRON DISSOLVING THE FRENCH PARLIAMENT - ALREADY HIS PARTY IS A MINORITY IN PARLIAMENT - REMAINS PRESIDENT
Macron has responded to a far right surge for Le Penn’s party by dissolving parliament. However he already has a minority coalition in the French Parliament. The main difference is that it is possible Le Penn becomes prime minister in France.
It is not a vote for president
Le Penn could end up as the prime ministership of France if her party goes well.
Macron is president to 2027 and then leaves
The Le Penn party is likely to become more moderate in power, it's already moving that way like the one in Italy.
It won't make any difference for many things
It can’t be an impulsive decision by Macron, the polls predicted this, so he must have worked it out in advance
BBC summarizes it like this:
He could have trusted the impending Euro football championship and above all the Paris Olympics to keep people’s minds off politics for a couple of months.
That was certainly how the Paris commentariat thought he would take his party’s rout.
But one can only assume the president had seen this coming, and planned his response in advance. Certainly, the result was an almost exact replica of the polls, so he would have had plenty of time to consider his options.
The fact is that he is stuck. He has no majority in the National Assembly, so getting any bill through is already a struggle. With most of the country now so clearly against him, any new legislation - for example the upcoming budget - could have proved explosive.
So he has plumped for "clarity". If the hard-right has the votes, then - he says - they should be given the chance to govern.
Obviously the president will hope his own Renaissance party can mount a fight back at the elections on 30 June and 7 July. Or that other parties will do better too. But he must appreciate that the odds favour another victory for the Rassemblement National - maybe not one so sweeping as today’s, but enough for it to become the biggest party in parliament.
At which point we might well have a Prime Minister Le Pen. Or Bardella.
Some comments on why he might have done this from from Cathrine Fieschi. I’ve got a video recording of this and took some notes as she spoke:
taboo on Le Penn’s party broken
Very good at mainstreaming themselves, general voters see them as a main stream party
Very much to the right, 88 MPs, very clever, haven’t said much about anything, mainly migration / immigration and green deal.
Letting disenchantment with Maron do the rest
Referendum on green costs and on Macron and his government
Very risky surprise announcement
Though he wouldn’t dissolve the national assembly until after the summer Olympics.
Typical Macron move to throw over the table if he doesn’t know what to do.
A way to put the party of Le Penn in a real context of having to govern to give them the next 2 or 3 years to hang themselves, prove they are unable to govern and so not win in 2027.
Both very risky
No natural selection. If his prime minister went up against Le Penn he’d probably lose
Not groomed a successor
Not created a viable party.
Created a movement almost out of nothing in 2016, swpet to power i 2017
Never created a viable party machine where one wuld naturally emerge.
No successor or structures for one to emerge
Party as very recent creation, no networks
it’s a one man show
Not his own job in balance, job of prime minister in balance
Very common in France, president throws prime minister under bus.
Not flash in the pan, the Le Penn vote has increased for a long time.
WHY THE FAR RIGHT CONCERN ABOUT IMMIGRATION? LOTS OF ISSUES BUT ONE OF THEM IS HOUSE PRICES EVEN THOUGH ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS DON’T DRIVE UP HOUSE PRICES
It used to be jobs, that was one of the main motivations for Brexit though mistaken. Now it's housing because house prices are going up.
It is a shame because immigration is a good solution to the top heavy ageing population of Europe as immigrants tend to be younger on average.
We do get a lot of legal immigration of course.
Anyway on the housing crisis, it is NOT the result of illegal immigrants. They are low income and so can't be driving up house prices and they don't have the right to public houses, they are kept many to a house in temporary accommodation. But the far right claim it is and it is a false argument that seems convincing.
QUOTE STARTS
Sorcha Edwards, secretary-general of Housing Europe, which represents public, cooperative and social housing providers, said that the far right’s allegation that undocumented immigrants were responsible for the bloc’s housing shortage was untrue.
“You have to have legal residency to opt for public housing in all EU states and private housing prices are not being driven by the demand of low-income foreigners,” she explained. “The housing shortage is due to a basic factor: Public authorities stopped building several decades ago and abdicated their responsibility to private real estate and construction firms.”
This means once house prices stabilize more there will likely be less concern about immigration, at least one less factor.
. Housing price statistics - house price index
See also:
. The best - and worst - places to buy property in Europe in 2023
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