Hamas and Hezbollah can’t fight a world war - Iran can’t fight a world war either - Iran won’t be involved directly - Russia and China not going to get involved - no risk of nukes
There is NO RISK of world war from Hamas. Hamas is just terrorism and counterterrorism, no way that Jordan or Egypt get involved, Iran is the only country in the region supporting Hamas or Hezbollah, and it won't attack directly
And nobody in the region has nukes except Israel. Iran doesn’t have nukes, it has large quantities of enriched uranium but it is dual use, can be used for making radioisotopes for medicine and they haven’t started the process of developing and testing a nuke.
Also Iran's missiles can't reach as far as Europe, deliberately. It takes extra work to design an ICBM which re-enters at a faster velocity - you don't want it to slow down either or it's easy to shoot down - and Iran hasn't done that research. It can launch satellites into space and could develop an ICBM but never has, as its aim is just to hit American bases in the Middle East.
Russia won't get involved. It has a large Jewish population, and many Russian Jews emigrated to Israel too so they have a strong connection with Israel. The big surprise is that Putin didn't unconditionally support Israel as he normally does but said he'd be neutral which may be because he depends on military supplies from Iran but no way he supports Hamas.
And China has no interest in the conflict.
Nor does India and though Pakistan is Muslim no way it gets involved either.
So there are no nuclear powers that would get involved except Israel and no way Israel uses nukes.
So the idea it would become a nuclear war is absurd.
SHORT SUMMARY OF WHY A WORLD WAR OR NUCLEAR WAR IS ABSURD
Iran's missiles are limited to the Middle East. How and who is supposed to take part in this alleged world war? It's only Iran and Israel and Iran doesn't want to fight Israel and only Israel has nukes.
US not likely to attack Iran and anyway Iran can't hit US.
No way Russia would get involved, it would be on Israel's side if anything, although it is neutral this time probably because it depends on Iran’s missiles for the Ukraine war
Nothing to do with China.
RISK OF EXPANSION OF TERRORISM TO INCLUDE HEZBOLLAH IN LEABANON BUT HEZBOLLAH WON’T WANT TO GET TOO MUCH INVOLVED
The risk is an expansion of terrorism to include Hezbollah.
And then counterstrikes against Lebanon with Israel fighting on two fronts, a long difficult war in Gaza strip and at the same time fighting Lebanon. But lebanon are not likely to want to start such a war which they would lose. The main risk is if Israel decides they want to take over Lebanon after first taking over Gaza strip.
IRAN USES PROXIES AND NO EVIDENCE IRAN KNEW THE ATTACK WAS GOING TO HAPPEN, IT’S INDIRECTLY INVOLVED BY FUNDING HAMAS
Iran works via proxies not directly and no way that Iran wants to attack Israel directly.
There is no evidence of involvement by Iran in planning the attack. Iran of course talks to Hamas often but that doesn't mean they were involved in the plans.
Hamas have kept it very secret and the fewer that know the better and Iran likely was in the "don't need to know" category. Iran would know that Hamas were amassing lots of rockets, paragliders etc probably. But well possible they knew nothing about the actual plan.
QUOTE The extent of Iran’s involvement, if any, in Hamas' recent attack on Israel is unclear. A Wall Street Journal article last week alleged Iran helped Hamas plan the attack, but Israeli and U.S. leaders said they had no evidence to corroborate the report, and early U.S. intelligence indicated Iranian leaders were surprised by the assault.
https://time.com/6324011/hezbollah-israel-lebanon-hamas-war/
HEZBOLLAH MAY FEEL THEY HAVE TO ACT IF ISRAEL GOES IN ON THE GROUND WITH LOTS OF CASUALTIES
There is a risk of it spreading to Hezbollah though they have their own reasons for not wanting it to get larger because they are unlike Hamas, Hezbollah isn't even specifically Muslim and they are part of the Lebanon government and need to maintain the support of their voters.
However if Israel go in on the ground and there are lots of civilian casualties Hezbollah may feel they have to act to make a show for their people but they will not want to do so much that they get a massive retaliation from Israel as that would be disastrous for their popularity at home.
Lebanon can't fight a proper war with Israel. It just has tanks and rockets and mortars no air power.
QUOTE STARTS
Hezbollah entering the war would open up a broader regional conflict, tax Israel’s response on both borders, and likely lead to greater death and destruction.
However, Khashan doesn’t believe that Hezbollah want to provoke an all-out war with Israel. The current skirmishes don’t violate the terms of the UN Security Council guidelines that ended the 2006 war. If those attacks escalated to total war, Hezbollah “stands no chance” and would be obliterated, Khashan said.
Khashan predicts that if a war were to start with Hezbollah, Israel would be the one to start it, pointing to some of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s recent statements hinting at ambitions beyond Gaza. In one post on X this week, Netanyahu pledged to not only destroy Hamas, but “Islamic Jihad.”
https://time.com/6324011/hezbollah-israel-lebanon-hamas-war/
BBC ANSWERING COMMON QUESTIONS - AND OTHER MIDDLE EAST COUNTRIES LIKE SAUDI ARABIA, JORDAN, EGYPT WOULDNT WANT TO GET INVOLVED
This BBC video answering common questions is very useful to get an idea of the context
Video: Your Questions Answered: Why are Israel and Gaza at war? – BBC News
Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt they wouldn't want to get involved as that video explained.
No way that Russia supports Hamas, their natural affiliation is with Israel because of the large Jewish population in Russia and the big surprise this time is that Putin didn't unconditionally support Israel. Instead he tried to be neutral - perhaps because he depends on Iran for supplies for the Ukraine war.
But Putin would be very unpopular at home if he supported Hamas so that's not likely. Putin heads a Christian oligarchy with a relatively large Jewish population. 1 in 1000 Russians are Jewish, total 155,000 and 230,000 have emigrated from Russia to Israel
https://www.worldjewishcongress.org/en/about/communities/RU
As for China it has no interest in what happens to Israel or Gaza strip. No way it would get involved in any war.
Similarly for India.
A LOCAL CONFLICT IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND NOT PLAUSIBLE IT BECOMES A WAR BETWEEN COUNTRIES EXCEPT POSSIBLY IN WORST CASE WAR BETWEEN ISRAEL AND LEBANON WITH ISRAEL FAR THE MORE POWERFUL ARMY
It's a local conflict in the Middle East, it's counterterrorism and it's not plausible it becomes a war between countries except possibly in a small way with Lebanon but Hezbollah would be cautious about provoking Israel into major retaliation as that would likely be the end of their political power in Lebanon.
There is enough concern in the USA to feel they need to make it very clear to Iran that it shouldn't get directly involved but it's just a show of strength they wouldn't expect Iran to try to attack them.
So in short, Hamas is just terrorism and counterterrorism, no way that Jordan or Egypt get involved, Iran is the only country in the region supporting Hamas or Hezbollah, and it won't attack directly
ONLY ISRAEL HAS NUKES, IRAN’S MISSILES CAN’T REACH EUROPE, RUSSIA AND CHINA WON’T GET INVOVLED
And nobody has nukes except Israel and Iran's missiles can't reach as far as Europe, deliberately. It takes extra work to design an ICBM which re-enters at a faster velocity - you don't want it to slow down either or it's easy to shoot down - and Iran hasn't done that research. It can launch satellites into space and could develop an ICBM but never has it's aim is just to hit American bases in the Middle east.
Russia won't get involved. It has a large Jewish population, and many Russian Jews emigrated to Israel too so they have a strong connection with Israel. The big surprise is that Putin didn't unconditionally support Israel as he normally does but said he'd be neutral which may be because he depends on military supplies from Iran but no way he supports Hamas.
Putin would be very unpopular at home if he supported Hamas so that's not likely. Putin heads a Christian oligarchy with a relatively large Jewish population. 1 in 1000 Russians are Jewish, total 155,000 and 230,000 have emigrated from Russia to Israel
https://www.worldjewishcongress.org/en/about/communities/RU
I go into details here:
China has no interest in the conflict.
Nor does India and though Pakistan is Muslim no way it gets involved either.
So there are no nuclear powers that would get involved except Israel and no way Israel uses nukes.
So the idea it would become a nuclear war is absurd.
The main risk is an expansion of terrorism to include Hezbollah.
EVEN A FIGHT AGAINST LEBANON WOULD LIKELY NEED TO COME FROM ISRAEL’S SIDE AS LEBANON WON’T WANT TO ESCALATE IT FAR FROM ITS SIDE
Then the way it could escalate is through Israel doing counterstrikes against Lebanon with Israel fighting on two fronts, a long difficult war in Gaza strip and at the same time fighting Lebanon.
But Lebanon are not likely to want to start such a war which they would lose.
The main risk is not really from Lebanon, it’s from Israel. If Israel decides they want to take over Lebanon or parts of Lebanon after “winning” the war with the Gaza Strip, or try to seriously damage Lebanon, they have the capability but that would of course be another long and difficult war.
Assuming Israel don’t do that then it’s likely to be limited to conflict in the Gaza strip and some increase in the rockets from Lebanon calibrated to make a clear statement without provoking a major backlash from Israel.
RISK FOR JORDAN IS UNREST WITHIN JORDAN AND WORST CASE TO BREAK OFF PEACE TREATY WITH ISRAEL WHICH THEY DON’T WANT TO DO, NOT TO FIGHT ISRAEL
The risk is unrest within Jordan not of Jordan fighting Israel. There is a risk that Jordan might be forced to break off its peace treaty with Israel if the situation gets very bad on the ground in Gaza strip. It's not likely to actually go to war with Israel which is vastly superior and will do all it can to maintain the peace treaty.
QUOTE STARTS
Riedel said Jordan’s king, who is also a key ally of the U.S., will come under a lot of pressure by his own people to break relations with Israel if there are significant casualties in Gaza “beyond what we have now.”
“And he knows that would damage his relationship with the United States, but he could find himself in a situation where he has to do something,” Riedel said.
“And an unstable Gaza and an unstable West Bank, which is the situation we face now, can destabilize Jordan and that would be a very big problem for the United States.”
More than 2,600 people in Gaza are believed to have been killed amid Israel’s bombardment of the enclave, with airstrikes targeting what it says are Hamas military infrastructure and leaders — but those deaths also include a significant number of civilians, including children.
Jordan and Egypt’s leaders have come out strongly against moving Palestinians out of Gaza – with Israel warning civilians to flee areas coming under strike, which could lead to a refugee crisis in surrounding countries.
That opposition prompted Secretary of State Antony Blinken to say that any calls for the relocation of Palestinian civilians is a “nonstarter.”
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BLOG: Hamas and Hezbollah can’t fight a world war
- Iran can’t fight a world war either
- Iran won’t be involved directly
- Russia and China not going to get involved - no risk of nukes
- risk of more terrorism