India and Pakistan agreed to ceasefire - will never use nukes - can't fight a world war - and Pakistan and India controlled escalation by leaving long periods of time before responses
The US says both sides have agreed to an immediate ceasefire
Marco Rubio: Over the past 48 hours, Vice President Vance and I have engaged with senior Indian and Pakistani officials, including Prime Ministers Narendra Modi and Shehbaz Sharif, External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, Chief of Army Staff Asim Munir, and National Security Advisors Ajit Doval and Asim Malik.
I am pleased to announce the Governments of India and Pakistan have agreed to an immediate ceasefire and to start talks on a broad set of issues at a neutral site.
We commend Prime Ministers Modi and Sharif on their wisdom, prudence, and statesmanship in choosing the path of peace.
Also Trump on Truth Social.
Trump: After a long night of talks mediated by the United States, I am pleased to announce that India and Pakistan have agreed to a FULL AND IMMEDIATE CEASEFIRE. Congratulations to both Countries on using Common Sense and Great Intelligence. Thank you for your attention to this matter! https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114483405683675564
From BBC live reporting, India and Pakistan both confirm that all military action will stop on land, in the sea and in the air.
Pakistan confirmed first
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cwy3jnl3nvwt?post=asset%3A6a62d305-fbd7-464f-b7fd-ac143b4e37d3#post
Then India confirmed:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cwy3jnl3nvwt?post=asset%3A956bd133-52d6-4fbd-923c-8678fb058ad6#post
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cwy3jnl3nvwt?post=asset%3A956bd133-52d6-4fbd-923c-8678fb058ad6#post
Expect ceasefire violations - that is normal especially early on
First there are almost always ceasefire violations soon after a ceasefire is anounced for the first few days. That’s normal. It takes a while to ensure all the soldiers are on the same page.
India Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri: We call upon Pakistan to take appropriate steps to address these violations and handle the situation with seriousness and responsibility. The Armed Forces are maintaining a strong vigil on the situation and have been given strict instructions to respond firmly to any repetition of border violations along the International Border and the LoC.
So India is asking Pakistan to handle the situation.
There are many reasons for early ceasefire violations. This early it would not be intentional, not in a genuine ceasefire like this one seems to be.
Reasons can include:
a line of command issue of local commanders not fully aware or not believing there's a ceasefire
Out of touch with the news on the front line.
It can also be
responses to real or imagined threats
in an area like Kashmir the possibility of non state actors confusing things.
But most likely line of command issues
if you issue a command to an entire army it's
not unusual at all for some soldiers or units not to get the message right away
Then after one side breaks it for whatever reason the other side likely responds.
Many reasons for delays for it to get to them including
out of communication
deliberate blackout so that the other side can't detect their radio transmissions.
just a glitch in the message relaying system so that some units don’t get it
A commander at the front line is probably not going to be scrolling the news on their mobile phone.
Pakistan targets military targets though it seems to have made some mistakes with shelling which is not surprising as most shells are imprecise (Ukraine uses GPS or laser guided shells but most shells don’t have that capabiity).
Longer term - a total ceasefire would be wonderful - but down to a few border clashes a month is more the norm for relatively peaceful relations
Then longer term, in this area peace along the border means few border clashes rather than a total ceasefire though they did manage a total ceasefire for one year in 2022.
In the run up to the recent Pakistan military response, Pakistan shelled an Indian town across the front line.
India and Pakistan accused each other of firingdrones at each other that can be shot down easily. That very likely did happen.
But just in a low grade way and some shooting across the line.
People often misread the conflicts here as they are used to places without constant border conflict.
This border is much like:
Donbas in Ukraine from 2014 to 2022 there was shelling most weeks. With I think occasional ceasefires that didn't last long.
Lebanon and Israel until the Lebanon ceasefire which Israel and Lebanon still break sometimes.
Afghanistan–Pakistan
Armenia–Azerbaijan
Several on-going conflicts in Africa.
https://www.oecd.org/content/dam/oecd/en/publications/reports/2022/02/borders-and-conflicts-in-north-and-west-africa_2bce879f/6da6d21e-en.pdf
They have shown they can stop for an entire year including a bit of 2021 and 2023.
But ending this doesn't need to mean going back to a ceasefire though that would be great if they can.
It is enough if they go back to many minro clashes every month as in every year except 2022.
Which is okay. That's close to peace for that region.
Ignore the media saying the ceasfire is broken - unless they formally end it - otherwise it's still in force and they will likely try to rescue it during the talks on May 12
It is normal for a ceasefire to be broken early on.
It doesn't mean it's formally ended and when they meet on May 12th they likely have top on their agenda to repair the ceasefire.
Remember low level clashes are normal there. Tensions were high. Some commanders at the front line wouldn't have got the orders in time, they fire a few drones or shells, the other side maybe know the ceasefire is in place but feel they have to respond.
Then politicians make statements accusing the other side of breaking the ceasefire and asking the other side to stop but saying they will respond to any breaches of it
- and that's how you get low level clashes with both sides wanting a ceasefire.
Seems likely both sides do want a ceasefire and if so they will try to repair it. That means politicians talking to each other and clear communication in the military to their soldiers. That will surely be a top priority on May 12.
And remember low level clashes is what counts for peace there, it's what they had every year except 2022 this century.
There was NEVER ANY POSSIBILITY OF A NUCLEAR WAR OR WORLD WAR
The rest of this post is to reassure you yet again that it was never a risk to anyone outside India and Pakistan and mainly in the India and Pakistan areas of Kashmir and was never a risk of a nuclear or world war.
India has the clearest no first use policy of any country in the world
As for Pakistan
Pakistan has its nukes only to deter a massive invasion that is too large for its conventional forces to stop.
India can't invade Pakistan at all. Even if it wanted to.
India can't even send tanks across the border, as Pakistan has air control of its territory. It would be like sitting ducks or shooting fish in a barrel.
TEXT ON GRAPHIC: Why there is no way Pakistan will ever use nukes against India.
India can’t invade Pakistan with tanks at all.
Pakistan can use these modern fighter jets it bought from China to shoot down Indian jets over 100 km from its front line.
So Pakistan has full control over its own air space.
So India can never invade Pakistan with armoured divisions and infantry
Because without air control:
Any infantry fighting vehicles would be like sitting ducks.
India has clearest no first use policy of any country.
Every year India submits four resolutions to the UN General Council calling for rapid negotaition to elimiante all nukes.
India and Pakistan are an exceptionally clear example to sow taht even frequent military clashes NEVER BECOME A NUCLEAR WAR
And both countries
- are only interested to fight each other
- can't even fight a world war.
This also means that India can't even do a raid into Pakistan except with a few soldiers hard to spot from the air - never mind a large-scale incursion. As for shooting and low level shelling and drones - that's not far from teh background norm as for other border areas of conflict
- like Donbas from 2014 - 2022 or Lebanon / Israel or ...
Background graphic: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Rubber_duck.svg
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Arjun_MK1A_field_trials.jpg
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:J-10B_with_PL-10_and_PL-12.jpg
Details of nuclear policy in previous post:
India can’t even send a small raid of armoured vehicles into Pakistan
India wants to send a raid into Pakistan. But short of a small group of a few people on foot that might be hard to spot from the air, there is no way it can do it.
A raiding party that can be spotted from the air by fighter jets and helicopters has no chance.
Pakistan fired long range missiles at India
The latest is that Pakistan fired long range missiles at India.
It’s not surprising India went for a ceasefire. Basically Pakistan showed it’s military capabilities are more advanced than India likely expected.
it will be hard for India to repeat its missile strikes because its planes are vulnerable. It may be able to repeat them safely, but not very likely that it would risk it.
India knows it will be hard for it to respond to them in the same way again
Update - turns out that the Indian fighter jets were all shot down over Indian not Pakistan. One as far as 100 km from the front line.
This means they were shot down by advanced long distance radar guided missiles not by short range manpads or heat seeking missiles.
They shot down at least one each of
Rafale (officially confirmed) - this is low visibility 4th generation jet
Mirage
MiG-29
Su-30
This is a list of the types of aircraft in the Indian airforce https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_Indian_military_aircraft#Air_Force
Pakistan used
China’s PL-15E beyond visual range missile range of approximately 145 km
Likely fired from a Chinese J-10CE fighter aircraft.
It probably couldn’t have shot down a 5th generation fighter like the F-35. And probably the Indians made the mistake of loitering near the border to be ready for any response from Pakistan and so got shot down.
It also shows that Chinese weapons are well designed, unlike the Rusisan ones that frequently underperform in combat. The debris will be useful for India and likely others like the USA to get hands on information about the Chinese missile.
Details from: https://missilematters.substack.com/p/operation-sindoor-indian-air-strikes
That does NOT mean that either side will use nukes. They won't.
India is no first use. It is the one that lost the figher jets.
Pakistan wouldn’t use nukes unless there is a very massive Indian army attacking them and the whole point is to deter India from attempting that. There is no way India does that.
There is no situation here where either side would use nukes.
Nobody in any army would be a general if they have an anxiety disorder - can’t use nukes in a panic - and Pakistan’s nukes are kept separate from the launch vehicles
This is something that often sounds convincing to scared people I help. I think it may be partly because they are used to panic attacks and imagine generals also panicking?
They get told that generals would panic and use nukes.
Nobody would rise through to the ranks and become a general if they are prone to panic attacks or if they have generalized anxiety disorders.
If a soldier develops PTSD or an anxiety disorder they have to leave their work. It is not a job that you can do if you panic easily.
A soldier that tends to panic in a difficult situation would never be promoted to general. Such a soldiers would have to leave the service.
Also there are many precautions to prevent a general or leader from using nukes.
The normal system is
A general needs a code from a political leader to use nukes
The political leader orders a general who would refuse an order from a mad leader to use nukes in peace time
Pakistan’s nukes are kept separate from the missiles
Meanwhile also in Pakistan as in China, nuclear warheads are kept geographically distant from the missiles and would only be joined after careful consultation - that is Pakistan's policy.
There is no way that they would have decided to attach the nukes to the missiles in teh current situation.
So Pakistan won't use nukes
India has a no first use policy for nukes and certainly won't use them, it's the nuclear power most strongly no first use and submitting resolutions to the UN General Assembly every year to rapidly reduce nukes globally.
Details in my previous blog post:
In:
No risk of nuclear war between Pakistan and India - decades of military skirmishes - CLEAREST EXAMPLE TO SHOW MILITARY SKIRMISHES - and EVEN WAR between nuclear states - DO NOT ESCALATE to nuclear war
[Skip to contents, or click on column of dashes to left of page if you see them]
Neither side can fight a world war and neither side has any interest in fighting anyone else except each other over this incident of 3 terrorists killing Indian civilians
Neither side has fought a war with anyone this century except this conflict with each other and in the case of India fisticuffs throwing stones in the demilitarized zone with China.
And neither side even could fight a world war.
Do you see how daft the click bait stories about nuclear war and world war are?
The risk is only for people in Pakistan and India in the Kashmir region near the border. Not to people in the West.
Movie myths - world can’t get radioactive - fallout only travels as far as the wind can blow a mushroom cloud before all the heavy dust falls out - in tens of minutes
This is to help people who believe false movie claims about nukes.
When I was a kid there was a nuclear test going off somewhere in the world most weeks. It did NOT make the world radioactive.
allout is the mushroom cloud falling from the sky.
It falls within tens of minutes. The cloud is dispersed completely in less than an hour.
It only gets as far as it can getin the strongest winds in a few tens of minutes.
The strongest winds can move it tens of kilometers in tens of minutes not hundreds or thousands of kilometers.
What is left is light dust too light to fall out quickly and this mixes with the natural radioactivity we have everywhere already.
It wouldn't make a noticeable difference to background radioactivity.
Your body is radioactive naturally because of the potassium anyway. At very low levels harmless to you. Similarly background radiation is harmless.
Dust rapidly gets less radioactive - anyone who gets well away from the dust is very protected - and emergency services can start to access the fallout zone only 2 days after the nuke falls
Fallout is local to the nuclear explosion and the radioactivity is reduced so much that emergency workers could enter the fallout zones after 2 days.
After 2 weeks then apart from some hot spots it wouldn't hinder travel through the
For details on fallout see my:
Nuclear winter is impossible
For details see:
. Nuclear winter is now an out-dated idea
There is no way either side uses nukes - and if there ever was even one Hiroshima again globally - this would lead to the largest humanitarian operation in history - not to more nukes - likely to abolition of nukes
If there ever was a Hiroshima again anywhere in the world it would NOT be an inevitable escalation.
In real life rather than in academic ideas and war plans the result would be
ordinary folk of both sides telling them to stop right away
the largest humanitarian operation the world has ever seen.
This would involve specialists in radiation sickness and complex burns injuries from around the world.
It would NOT lead to more nukes it would likely lead to the abolishing of nukes.
India would lead any calls to abolish nukes as quickly as possible as it submits resolutions to do this to the UN General Assembly every year.
It would likely lead to all the main nuclear powers joining India’s call for rapid abolition of nukes
Governments do NOT seriously believe in a world war or nuclear war or they’d tell us how to protect ourselves from fallout
There is no risk of a world war. You can tell that governments don’t seriously believe that there really is a risk of a world war because if they did, they would tell their civilians how to protect themselves from fallout.
Tens of thousands of the civilians in Hiroshima died AFTER the explosion from fallout - many know that but most people don’t know:
most of those lives could have been saved with simple instructions to stay indoors until the fallout dust loses its radioactivity.
Older people ion the UK know that they need to get indoors if there is a nuke and stay well away from the dust.
I doubt if as many as 1 in 100 of younger people know this
We don’t know this because
we don’t need to know it
because there is no risk of a nuclear war
The governments are NOT hiding this information from us.
And it makes NO SENSE for politicians to bluff about nukes and then not to tell people how to protect themselves from fallout to avoid scaring them.
Not telling us about fallout shows that they are not serious in their bluffs or their political statements about risking a world war.
If there was a real risk as in the cold war the government would be telling us about this every day, a short 1 minute video every day much like the videos during COVID lockdown.
The information would be prominently displayed in the news websites also.
This is not happening because government leaders know full well that there is no real risk of a nuclear war.
SEE ALSO
Why we do NOT risk a world war from: Ukraine, the Middle East, China, North Korea, or anywhere else in the world - next to impossible - and longer term are headed for a future without any war
For a first overview look at the graphics, read the bullet points summary, and read the section titles in the contents list - then dive into more detail in any section of interest. If you are on the laptop you can also navigate to any section by clicking on the column of horizontal dashes you see to the left of this page.
And for Pakistan
My longer post
No risk of nuclear war between Pakistan and India - decades of military skirmishes - CLEAREST EXAMPLE TO SHOW MILITARY SKIRMISHES - and EVEN WAR between nuclear states - DO NOT ESCALATE to nuclear war
[Skip to contents, or click on column of dashes to left of page if you see them]
also
India and Pakistan will NOT use nukes - just a border clash like many before
India and Pakistan can't even fight a world war, way beyond their capability and they are only fighting each other no interest in any other party. And no way either uses nukes.
also
India / Pakistan won't use nukes: Pakistan nukes are LAST RESORT to stop an India invasion large enough to overwhelm half a million Pakstani soldiers WON'T HAPPEN - India: NO FIRST USE
Pakistan and India have amongst the clearest no escalation nukes policies in the world
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TIPS FOR DEALING WITH DOOMSDAY FEARS
If suicidal or helping someone suicidal see my:
BLOG: Supporting someone who is suicidal
If you have got scared by any of this, health professionals can help. Many of those affected do get help and find it makes a big difference.
They can’t do fact checking, don’t expect that of them. But they can do a huge amount to help with the panic, anxiety, maladaptive responses to fear and so on.
Also do remember that therapy is not like physical medicine. The only way a therapist can diagnose or indeed treat you is by talking to you and listening to you. If this dialogue isn’t working for whatever reason do remember you can always ask to change to another therapist and it doesn’t reflect badly on your current therapist to do this.
Also check out my Seven tips for dealing with doomsday fears based on things that help those scared, including a section about ways that health professionals can help you.
I know that sadly many of the people we help can’t access therapy for one reason or another - usually long waiting lists or the costs.
There is much you can do to help yourself. As well as those seven tips, see my:
BLOG: Breathe in and out slowly and deeply and other ways to calm a panic attack
BLOG: Tips from CBT
— might help some of you to deal with doomsday anxieties
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It works much better to put comments on other topics on a special post for them.
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Yes, this was a natural end, as you've pointed out, there's way too many things to go wrong with Nukes than would go right. We know the devastation from Hiroshima and Nagasaki, Japan from WWII, and they're a lot stronger now than they were back then.
Glad to hear both India and Pakistan spoke with each other. Great way of diplomacy.