Israel / Iran tit for tat over: Israel did minor strike on military radar in Iran - NOT nuclear facilities - both sides de-escalated - never any world war risk
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UPDATE: Looks like Iran and Israel are likely to treat it as a closed case. Experts say this particular episode is likely over. Remember Iran said they would respond instantly with a massive strike. But Iran instead is denying anything happened. That is an easy way from their side to de-escalate.
So far, Israel from its side is not even acknowledging the missile strike either. That is a way for them to deescalate too. Instead Israel news is repeating reports from other countries about unnamed Israeli officials.
This is like a language, a way of talking to each other by using military strikes. it isn't done to try to "win”. Both sides have accomplished what they wanted to do. Iran has deterred Israel from attacking consulates and Israel has deterred Iran from attacking Israel directly. Iran has preserved its national dignity and Israel has preserved its national pride.
Both have demonstrated to the other that they can hit where they want to hit and both have carefully chosen targets that are limited in their effects.
This was one of the most likely ways for them to end the tit-for-tat. To do a small symbolic attack - one that Iran can downplay. Both sides know it happened but Iran is denying anything happened publicly and Israel is also not acknowledging it.
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Some of the main points in immediate commentary on BBC by experts - such as BBC Arab affairs expert Mohamad Taha, Michael Singh from the Washington Institute and Brigadeer General Mark Kimmit former US assistant secretary for state for foreign affairs.:
Attack on Syria and Iraq and on Isfaha
Isfaha has nuclear facilities
but targeted non nuclear facilities
It is just a missile strike not the start of a war. US says it is a missile attack but Iran are not talking it up.
Iran denying that
says local attack drones from a group loyal to Israel in Iran
not mentioning Israel at all and claim that it is by 3 drones they downed.
Iran is not commenting for now. It’s de-escalation not talking it up.
Not talking about retaliation,
not mentioning Israel
not mentioning any injuries or damage.
The Israelis haven’t spoken out about it publicly and Iran are downplaying it.
There is absolutely NO POSSIBILITY EVER OF A WORLD WAR and never was. Iran doesn't have any allies that can even fight a world war.
The main risk was a risk of a larger version of Gaza Strip between Israel and Lebanon as Iran doesn't have any way to attack Israel, is too far away. But nobody wants that to happen.
For background See my debunk here:
See BLOG: If Israel does respond to Iran - both sides still want to keep it low key - can’t ever be a world wa
Text on graphic:
Israel: small-scale attack near nuclear facilities but not targeting them
Iran: so far claims it was local Israeli sympathizers with miniature drones
- a way for both sides to de-escalate
- never was any risk of a world war
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Just some of many factors acting to prevent escalationPolitics, geography and military capabilities ALL act against escalation
Iran wants to protect national dignity and deter attacks on its consulates
Israel wants to show it can do whatever Iran does and deter Iran's ballistic missile strikes
Nobody has any sensible military objectives.
Iran's only allies, Syria and Lebanon, far weaker and didn't take part in the attack.
Israel: small country to defend, excellent air defences and ultra-modern missiles.
Too far for Iran to overwhelm Israel's air defences with slow drones or cruise missiles.
Iran: Huge country to defend and weak air defences.
Less advanced missiles.
The only way for Israeli planes to get to Iran without flying over other countries.
Iran may be able to shoot down Israeli planes.
Plus these are humans not automatons - neither side wants escalation and we have many ways to stop it.
It seems to be near Istafhan airport and not near any nuclear sites according to various sources. It may be a military radar.
By attacking near the facility - 3 reactors there - the center of the Iranian nuclear program. Iran have invested a lot into it and they will not want a continuing tit for tat that could damage it.
MILITARY STRIKES AS A FORM OF DIPLOMACY - CAREFULLY CALLIBRATED LANGUAGE - NORMAL IN THE MIDDLE EAST - IN THE WEST WE GO INTO WARS TO WIN BUT IN THE MIDDLE EAST THEY DO MILITARY STRIKES AS A WAY OF TALKING ALMOST
Experts on the BBC explained very well - this is just military signalling - doing military strikes almost as a form of diplomacy - as a language. There are unspoken rules to it and they convey messages by how big or small the strikes are, whether they announce them or not, the amount of the delay before the response and so on.
The Israeli attack was delayed, it was small, they hit near to a nuclear facility but didn't hit it, they haven't acknowledged it, Iran is denying it happened at all.
If Israel allows Iran to continue to deny it happened they can both draw a line under it and then Iran gets the message "don't fire more missiles at us" and Israel is sending the message "This was just symbolic don't take it seriously" and the incident is over.
These messages are often reinforced by messages exchanged privately via third party intermediaries.
People in the Middle East have been used to it for many years and it is common amongst smaller countries.
In the West we are used to wars where you go into the war to win, not this idea of just a few military strikes as a form of dialogue.
IRGC [Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps] DOWNPLAYING THE ATTACK
IRGC in Iran claiming it’s an attack by microdrones that you can hold in the palm of your hand.
https://twitter.com/MichaelSinghDC/status/1781174720307605655
Michael Singh from the Washington Institute think tank says that it is encouraging that Iran is downplaying it.
The Israeli strike seems
designed to deter and deescalate
allows Iran not only to downplay but even claim the attack never happened
[the easy way out for Iran as a reason not to retaliate to Israel again]
https://twitter.com/MichaelSinghDC/status/1781171026207908246
MANY SOURCES ALL SAYING - NOT HITTING NUCLEAR FACILITIES
I have checked open source on Twitter and Aljazeera, CBS, Iran News, CNN, Times of Israel amongst others.
QUOTE Iran’s state broadcaster IRIB is citing “reliable sources” as saying that the nuclear facilities in Isfahan are “completely safe”
. Israeli missile has struck Iran, US officials say - BBC News
Also
QUOTE Israel told the US that it is not targeting Iranian nuclear facilities, CNN reports, citing a senior US official.
. timesofisrael.com/liveblog-april-19-2024/
The news agency reported that a possible target of the blast was a military radar, and that the explosion broke several windows of office buildings in the area.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2024/4/19/live-israel-launches-missile-attack-in-response-to-iran-assaulthttps://www.iranintl.com/en/liveblog/israel-hits-site-in-iran
BBC / PBS NEWS INTERVIEW
This is from a BBC interview on a program from the US also played on PBS news:
Brigadeer General Mark Kimmit former US assistant secretary for state for foreign affairs.
Israel is doing what is in best national interest
Well thought out plans and strategy
Iran and Israel think very carefully about their moves
Israel seems to have thought very carefully about their plans
Going it alone what they think is best
Fairly nunaced, strategic, responding to a very strategic move by the Iranians.
Why not "take the win"?
Michael Singh Washington Institute
Israeli - why not let the failure linger?
Probably because even though Iran’s attack was spectacularly unsuccessful want to send a message such an attack will always have a cost so they will be deterred by it.
Nobody wants instability.
But only Israel would have to live with ever present threat of Iranian attacks.
That's what they want to address.
Kimmit:
For us we may think the world has changed.
For Iranians and Israelis a new change but not unexpected.
Two rational actors.
Approaching with rational thinking in how they attack and how they respond
Doesn't think any different than when the Iranians attacked Saudi territory a few years abo.
No reasons to spiral into regional war. MIschief can come into play but this seems to be rolling out according to script.
Singh:
similar to the pair of attacks in 2020 where the Iranians hit a hangar full of spare parts after US killed general Soliemani
didn't create a new pattern between US and Iran.
Probably both wnat to go back to old rules of engagement through proxies.
MIchael Singh -
Istafhan is an area with nuclear facilities but they didn’t hit them
may be a message by hitting non-nuclear facilities in Istafahn
saying "we could hit nuclear sites but didn't".
US anticipated it and discouraged likely expected it to happen anyway. Will be monitoring carefully.
If Iran risks to de-escalate it might still respond covertly e.g. through proxies.
US will need to be aware of that and respond to it.
Potential for miscalculation
Report from officials Israel probably thought its strike would not be significant.
Iran thought of its reply as slow-moving and easy to shoot down but may have been
Singh
Limited conflict is unusual to us in the West
we are used to fighting to win.
however, signaling through military force is common between smaller and middle sized adversaries.
Smaller and maybe deniable attacks.
Rules of engagement that are unspoken not codified but understood. Sent through scale of attack, timing, sometimes explicitly through third parties.
Because of Gaza Strip and Hezbollah - rules of engagement changing - and each size may be misreading the other side potential for miscalculation.
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