Iran sure to do delayed careful calibrated response to Israeli assassination through proxies Hezbollah and Houthis - ceasefire negotiations for Gaza strip continue and a ceasefire can end this phase -
- never any risk of world war from Middle East
Not much will happen after the assassinations by an Israeli missile strike of the Hezbollah commander Shukr and by a remotely triggered bomb of the political leader of Hamas, Haniyeh.
Hezbollah will deliberate as will Iran. Then Hezbollah will make some carefully calibrated response and possibly also Iran’s Houthi proxies.
US didn’t know about the Haniyeh assassination in advance and Israel does not acknowledge it, if responsible. It is illegal under the law of armed conduct as he was a political leader not engaged in directing combat. Since it was a bomb set locally in Iran, Iran may do nothing except protest as for when their chief nuclear scientist was killed but Israel is preparing just in case they do a direct missile attack on Israel as for the embassy compound missile strike.
US and Qatar both says ceasefire talks continue despite the assassination of Huniyeh who was previously leading the negotiations.
When Israel finally achieves a ceasefire in Gaza Strip with Hamas, this will end this phase and be followed swiftly by a ceasefire by the Houthis and Hezbollah as both say they are only launching their missiles for as long as the conflict in Gaza continues.
For background see
Other countries in the area like Jordan are not at risk.
LEBANON AND ISRAEL WORKING ON PEACE DEAL - AND WILL GO TO A CEASEFIRE IF ISRAEL DOES A CEASEFIRE IN GAZA STRIP - STRONG INCENTIVE TO AVOID ALL-OUT WAR BETWEEN LEBANON AND ISRAEL
I will come back to this at the end of this blog post, but will touch on briefly here.
Not many mention that actually Israel and Lebanon are close to achieving a peace deal which they might have achieved if it weren’t for the Oct 07 Hamas attack on Israel and Israel’s response and then Hezbollah’s response.
This is my summary, more on this later
:
Text on graphic: Litani river shown in blue
Hezbollah
- attack Israeli symbolically in protest against the Gaza Strip bombing
- are militants and only hit military targets since Oct 07
Count as terrorist because of two high profile car bombs
- killed 241 military personel with car bomb in 1983
- killed 29 civilians in 1992
They don't take civilian hostages or torture civilians
- have their missiles to fight over small border areas between Israel and Lebanon
- political wing is a minority in the Lebanon democratically elected government
All this ends with a Gaza ceasefire
- Lebanon and Israel have agreed on 7 points out of 13 points of disagreement
- eventual deal will likely involve a demilitarized zone in Lebanon south of the Litari river
Lebanon will surely go to an immediate ceasefire when the Gaza Strip ceasefire starts as will the Houthi rebels.
Negotiations for a peace treaty with Israel will take longer but are well underway.
SINCE HANIYEH WAS KILLED BY A REMOTE TRIGGERED BOMB IRAN MAY NOT DO A MISSILE RESPONSE FOR HIM.
Haniyeh was killed by a remotely triggered bomb in a guest house. Since he was a political leader, it is illegal under international law and so nobody is likely to acknowledge it but Israel’s spies Mossad are suspected to be behind it.
The US didn’t know about it in advance. If Israel was responsible they would not acknowledge they did it. All they have said is that they didn't do any other missile strikes.
QUOTE STARTS
While the IDF has claimed responsibility for killing Shukr, Israel has not officially commented on the assassination of Haniyeh, which Hamas, Iran and their allies have blamed on it.
“We struck on Tuesday night in Lebanon and killed Fuad Shukr in an accurate aerial strike. I want to emphasize, there was no other aerial strike, not a missile and not an Israeli drone, in the entire Middle East that night, and I won’t comment further,” IDF Spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari said Thursday when asked about Haniyeh.
. idf-on-high-alert-as-biden-vows-us-to-defend-israel-against-all-threats-from-iran/
It's not proven that Israel did it. Just widely speculated. Israel has done assassinations like this in Iran before and the method used is very similar to a method used to kill Iran's top nuclear scientist some time back.
. Bomb Smuggled Into Tehran Guesthouse Months Ago Killed Hamas Leader
The US say they did NOT know about the Haniyeh assassination.
See:
. Secretary Antony J. Blinken With Teresa Tang of Channel News Asia
So what will Iran do back?
First they will NOT respond quickly. The Ayatollah has the last word in Iran and he is very cautious and has never responded promptly in a situation like this.
Both sides de-escalate mainly by being slow to respond. At least days.
Israel is taking precautions in case Iran responds with drones and missiles as with the missile attack on their embassy in Syria some time back.
That would be the worst case - with Iran attacking Israel again with lots of drones and ballistic missiles but done in ways to make it easy to shoot them down - and then we have the playbook for that already that Israel likely respond with a symbolic missile strike on Iran and then it's over.
Or Iran uses its proxies in some way.
However this is different as it is a Hamas leader not an Iranian, and it was a bombing not a missile attack and likely harder to conclusively link it to Israel.
Iran may feel it needs to do something but it may not do much.
It is similar to an incident where Iran's top nuclear scientist was killed using a remotely operated machine gun attached to a parked truck.
. Mohsen Fakhrizadeh - Wikipedia
In that case there was no military response. Internal investigation into how it happened and diplomatic responses.
It is very different to the embassy attack.
Whatever Iran does will be carefully calibrated and they are likely to take some time to respond.
Hezbollah often do rocket attacks on Israel and they mean nothing. If they do 100+ rocket attacks in quick succession then that would be their response to the killing of Shukr, enough to be symbolic but well short of the number that would overwhelm the Iron Dome. Hezbollah do have the ability to fire 10s or hundreds of thousands of rockets in one salvo but they won’t do that as that would be what’s called “all-out war” which both sides want to avoid.
TERMINOLOGY: “ALL-OUT WAR” JUST MEANS MOVING FROM SPORADIC MISSILES TO CONTINUAL EXCHANGE BETWEEN ISRAEL AND LEBANON - AND MAJOR GROUND OFFENSIVES - THIS IS WHAT BOTH SIDES ARE VERY KEEN TO AVOID
What is happening right now is sporadic exchanges of missiles with both sides stopping and deliberating before making their next more
The big concern is about all-out war between Lebanon and Israel as opposed to sporadic missile exchanges with Hezbollah, but neither side want that.
Hezbollah has the capability to overwhelm the Iron Dome with tens or hundreds of thousands of missiles fired quickly. Some would get through and Hezbollah can also be supplied from Iran via Syria. Some of the Hezbollah missiles have sufficient range to reach the south of Israel.
Even then other countries like Jordan wouldn't be at risk except for any misfired Hezbollah missiles to shoot down. As I understand it, Iran would be mainly involved in such a war by supplying Syria and Hezbollah indirectly.
Also potentially Syrian proxies could get involved in such a war technically making it regional if it involves three countries, Israel, Lebanon and Syria. So that is what they mean by the risk of a regional war.
But nobody wants that, Israel included, it would reflect very badly on Netanyahu because thousands of Israelis would die in an all-out war with Lebanon. So as usual it is about carefully calibrated responses on both sides, Israel has gone up to near the edge of what they feel they can do without it going to an all-out war and Hezbollah will do the same back.
CALLIBRATED LANGUAGE OF DE-ESCALATION
Experts on the BBC / PBS explain that small and medium sized countries often use military signaling which we are not used to in the west - using strikes like this to send signals not with military objectives with a kind of carefully calibrated language.
It’s the same here. Israel will feel it needs to respond to the attack that killed civilians. Hezbollah will understand that need in this calibrated language of military strikes. Hezbollah will in turn have a need to respond back in some way, but in a symbolic way, for instance firing rockets at Israel that it knows Israel can easily shoot down with the Iron dome.
See my:
In an all-out war they wouldn't stop and consider they would take opportunities immediately as soon as they see them. That is the main difference plus when de-escalating then they also look for a response that sends a message but doesn't go above what the opponent expects from a response in a carefully calibrated language. Iran and Isarel have developed this language over years of mutual experience.
As usual we can expect Iran and Hezbollah to de-escalate primarily by waiting to consider a response. Then to do whatever they feel is proportionate in some symbolic response designed to de-escalate. And then if Israel feels it has to do the same again then it would also take its time for any response.
Israel is sending the message to Hezbollah that accidental killing of kids in a soccer pitch in Israel is equivalent for them to killing of two of the top leaders of Hamas and of Hezbollah.
WILL COMPLICATE IRAN AND HEZBOLLAH DELIBERATIONS ABOUT A RESPONSE - WILL BE VERY CAREFUL BECAUSE OF ISRAEL’S FAR GREATER MILITARY CAPABILITY
This is going to complicate Iran and Hezbollah's deliberations they thought the assassination of Shukr was the whole of Israel's response but now they have to consider Haniyeh but they will still be looking for a de-escalating calibrated responses to it all.
The assassination of Haniyeh is very humiliating for Iran. Likely killed by a cruise missile fired from a stealth F-35 which is impossible for them to defend against with their current capabilities and never to be completely sure to stop it.
It is like the previous Israeli attack on an Iranian radar system but one they can't dismiss as allegedly by hand-held microdrones.
However Israel did not kill an Iranian leader. It killed a Hamas leader in Iran, a political leader who normally enjoys the security of living in Qatar where it would be diplomatically impossible for Israel to target him.
So Iran will be very careful in its response. It doesn't want to directly attack Israel as if it does high military leaders in Iran could be directly targeted which they don't want obviously.
This is the first day of office of the new moderate president of Iran so it will be a complicated decision for him. Of course also overseen by the Ayatollah.
Iran and Hezbollah likely do nothing for some time while they decide what their next move is.
The ceasefire talks are still on the go according to the USA, seems they can continue them without a Hamas leader in charge.
All this ends with a Gaza Strip ceasefire as Hezbollah would quickly agree to a ceasefire soon after.
Israel wants demilitarization of southern Lebanon which Hezbollah might well agree to once the Gaza Strip crisis is resolved but that's likely a few months down the road.
Some news sources are running a claim from the NY Times that the Ayagollah ordered a direct strike from Iranian soil at Israel. But they are using unnamed officials in the Ayatollahs’ inner circle who didn’t want to be named and there is no independent verification.
QUOTE Mr. Khamenei gave the order at an emergency meeting of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council on Wednesday morning, shortly after Iran announced that Mr. Haniyeh had been killed, said the three Iranian officials, including two members of the Revolutionary Guards. They asked that their names not be published because they were not authorized to speak publicly.
. Iran’s Leader Orders Attack on Israel for Haniyeh Killing, Officials Say
If there is truth to it it could easily be more nuanced, e.g. that he asked them to plan out what such an attack would look like.
Whatever they do will be carefully callibrated. Iran will want to send a signal to Israel not to do this to any of their own military commanders. Howeer, Israel has shown a capability that Iran can't defend against, probably the F-35s. So that wil also factor into their decisions.
Certainly not likely to do anything like that quickly. The Ayatollah of Iran has a history of being slow and careful in responses as we saw before.
See my:
One of the main ways Iran de-escalates is by taking a long time to respond and responding in a symbolic way.
US SAYS CEASEFIRE NEGOTIATIONS CONTINUE FOR GAZA STRIP - DIDN’T KNOW ABOUT HANIYEH ASSASSINATION IN ADVANCE
The Israeli assassination of
SECRETARY BLINKEN: Well, of course I’ve seen the – seen the reports. And what I can tell you is this.
First, this is something we were not aware of or involved in. It’s very hard to speculate, and I’ve learned over many years never to speculate on the impact one event may have on something else. So I can’t tell you what this means.
I can tell you that the imperative of getting a ceasefire, the importance that that has for everyone, remains. And we will continue to labor at that for as long as it takes to get there. It’s vitally important to help end the suffering of Palestinians in Gaza. It’s vitally important to getting the hostages home – including a number of Americans.
It’s vitally important to hopefully putting things on a better path for more enduring peace, for more enduring security. So that focus remains, and again, speculating on the impact of any one event, I’ve learned, is not – is not a wise thing to do.
. Secretary Antony J. Blinken With Teresa Tang of Channel News Asia
And similar response here:
QUESTION: Yes. So my name is Scott. I’m a Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy Master’s of Public Policy candidate. And my question to you is somewhat related with your previous answer. I know that this session is talking about the Indo-Pacific Strategy, but of course today we’ve heard some scary kind of breaking news about the senior Hamas official being killed in Iran. And so I just wanted to get your sense because I believe this would be the first time that I get to hear about what your perspective is and how this changes the negotiations, because he was at the forefront of Hamas negotiations. Thank you.
SECRETARY BLINKEN: Well, of course I’ve seen the reports, and all I can tell you right now is I think nothing takes away from the importance of, as I said a moment ago, getting to the ceasefire, which is manifestly in the interests of the hostages and bringing them home. It’s manifestly in the interests of Palestinians, who are suffering terribly every single day – children, women, men – in Gaza, who’ve been caught in this crossfire of Hamas’s making. It’s profoundly in the interest of trying to put things on a better path, not only in Gaza, but actually throughout the region, because so much is tied to what’s happening in Gaza right now.
We’ve been working from day one not only to try to get to a better place in Gaza, but also to prevent the conflict from spreading, whether it’s in the north with Lebanon and Hizballah, whether it’s the Red Sea with the Houthis, whether it’s Iran, Syria, Iraq – you name it. And a big key to trying to make sure that that doesn’t happen and that we can move to a better place is getting the ceasefire.
I’m not going to speculate on what impact any one event might have on that. I’ve learned over many years never to really speculate about that because we simply don’t know. What I do know is the enduring imperative of getting the ceasefire, and what I do know is we’ll continue to work at that every day. Thank you.
France24 in their live reporting said that Kirby also responded to journalists saying they can still negotiate through other intermediaries so negotiations can continue. Sorry I don’t have more details than that yet.
BBC SUMMARY - BAD FIRST DAY FOR THE NEW MODERATE PRESIDENT OF IRAN
The Ayatolla has the last word on everything but the moderate president has some input.
Checked the BBC live feed on this. Their main points are
a bad first day for the new moderate president of Iran
Haniyeh was killed by a rocket fired from outside Iran.
he was in a guest house at the time which shows that Iran has major security issues.
ceasefire negotiations can continue even without a leader of Hamas and Hamas and Qatar commit to continue
the timing of the killing suggests it is a wider part of the response to the Hezbollah soccer field attack
There are three possible replacement leaders of Hamas, one more extreme (Yehiya Sinwar, current head in Gaza Strip and mastermind of Oct 07) , one less extreme (Khaled Meshaal,, previous leader of Hamas but with difficult relationships with Iran) and another Zaher Jabareen who could play a key role in negotiating prisoner swaps as he is the Hamas deputy responsible for prisoners in Israeli jails.
My own comment: of those three Yehiya Sinwar seems unlikely as he is in Gaza Strip and couldn't travel to negotiations unless he was let out of Gaza Strip after which he could surely never return.
For the BBC timeline source quotes for that summary see comment reply to this post
The Lebanese one was a predictable response to the soccer field bombing, one of several suggestions of what Israel might do is something like that.
The Hamas leader is very out of the blue and not related to anythign else going on. As a Hamas leader he was at risk of assassination by Isarel.
But the timing is unfortunate and will be a setback for ceasefire negotiations as Hamas will need to replace him first as their political leader which likely delays the negotiations months. This is from Sky News not the best source but it is a good summary.
QUOTE STARTS
Aside from the regional implications, within Hamas this will necessitate a change of leadership at the top. But the group is adept at this. Its structure allows for a smooth transition of power.
...
Many Gazans blame Hamas for leading them into this devastating war, but they also know Haniyeh's death will put any remote chance of a ceasefire on hold, while the ramifications of this assassination play out.
. Ismail Haniyeh was the pragmatic face of Hamas - his death is a major blow for the group
IS NETANYAHU DELIBERATELY PUTTING OBSTACLES IN PLACE OF A HOSTAGE DEAL AND CEASEFIRE FOR PERSONAL POLITICAL REASONS? BIDEN THINKS NO
From Netanyahu's point of view he has often put obstacles in the way of a ceasefire when it was about to be negotiated.
There may seem to be a pattern here. This is an example, the US were not made aware in advance and it complicates and delays the potential for a hostage deal.
The issue is the timing. He was central for negotiations on the hostages and the ceasefire. At almost any other time this would not be such a big deal. But right now it is.
On the other hand the timing immediately after teh soccer attack is in favour of this just being an opportunistic extension of the response to the soccer field attack.
It is important for Netanyahu to show that the hostage negotiations are continuing.
If it seems that Netanyahu did this to delay the hostage release, this casts doubt on Netanyahu's sincerity in seeking for a ceasefire. That could have political consequences for Netanyahu and sure to get strong reactions and protests from families of the hostages in Israel and from his international allies.
He knows that as soon as the war is over he is likely to be removed from power as prime minister and he has legal cases against him that would be accelerated if he leaves power.
He is able to stay in power for as long as Israel remains in conflict in Gaza Strip. Some people think his reluctance to negotiate ceasefire is connected.
When asked by Time magazine in June if Netanyahu was doing that Biden said there is every reason for peple to draw that conclusion, but he is not going to comment on it. He later walked back on this comment.
QUOTE STARTS
Some in Israel have suggested that Netanyahu is prolonging the war for his own political self-preservation. Do you believe that?
Biden: I'm not going to comment on that. There is every reason for people to draw that conclusion. And I would cite that as—before the war began, the blowback he was getting from the Israeli military for wanting to change the constitu—change the court. And so it's an internal domestic debate that seems to have no consequence. And whether he would change his position or not, it's hard to say, but it has not been helpful.
. Read the Full Transcript of Joe Biden's Interview With TIME
Later on he gave a personal opinion that he doesn't think Netanyahu is doing this
QUOTE STARTS
A reporter shouted the question again at Biden after he wrapped up a speech at the White House on Tuesday afternoon, asking again whether Netanyahu has been playing politics with the Gaza war.
“I don’t think so, Biden responded, apparently trying to calm tensions that may have been sparked by his remark to Time. “He’s trying to work out the serious problem that he has.”
. biden-people-have-every-reason-to-think-netanyahu-extending-war-to-stay-in-power
NETANYAHU NEEDS TO DEFEND HIMSELF FROM INTERNAL CRITICISM IN THE ISRAELI PARLIAMENT THAT HE ISN’T DOING ENOUGH TO MOVE FAST ENOUGH ON THE HOSTAGE RELEASE
Netanyahu has faced internal criticism. If the Jewish parliament thinks that he is delaying the ceasefire for political self preseveration they would likely force him out.
He survived an earlier vote of no confidence in June brought by Labour who said he hadn't done enough to bring hostages home. It was boycotted by the opposition saying that they couldn't hold elections in war time.
. no-confidence-motion-against-netanyahu-fails-in-knesset-with-only-18-votes-in-favor
It's not got to that point yet.
HE CAN BE REMOVED WITHIN A WEEK BY A MAJORITY VOTE IF THEY DECIDE HIS GOVERNMENT NEEDS TO BE REPLACED BUT ARE RELUCTANT TO DO THAT IN WAR TIME
If they think he is deliberately delaying the ceasefire then they CAN remove him with a vote of no confidence and it is a very simple procedure.
In Israel the parliament can remove its prime minister with a simple vote of no confidence in the government. It is a one day process the first Monday after the motion or motions are submitted and if a majority votes that he has to go, then that's it done they have to form a new government usually with elections.
So Netanyahu will be under a lot of internal pressure to show this hasn’t delayed the ceasefire negotiations significantly and show that it wasn’t his motivation to delay the negotiations.
Otherwise he’d get a lot of pressure internally from families of the hostages, the Jewish people and his own parliament
HOW WOULD IRAN RESPOND - LIKELY THROUGH PROXIES HEZBOLLAH IN LEBANON AND HOUTHI REBELS IN YEMEN AS HAMAS CAN’T DO ANYTHING - NOT LIKELY TO DO A DIRECT RESPONSE AS THEY HAVE NOTHING WITH THE SAME CAPABILITIES TO RESPOND WITH
Don't see any detailed discussion yet but the likely response would be from Hezbollah and Houthis from proxies as it was a Hamas not an Iranian target even though in Iran.
The natural ones to respond are Hamas with rocket attacks from Gaza Strip, but they can't of course with their home made rockets surely almost all destroyed in Gaza Strip.
The reason that Israel targeted him in Iran would likely be because he was protected in Qatar which gives him safe sanctuary which is where he normally lived, it would be a very major diplomatic incident to hit Qatar.
Early reports said it was a missile perhaps fired from an Israeli F-35 jet.
. Speculation arises: Did the F-35 conduct an airstrike in Tehran
But the NY Times is now reporting that the assassination of Haniyeh was done using a remote triggered bomb smuggled into the guest house that he was staying in two months ago - similarly to the assassination of Iran’s top nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh in 2020.
The NY Times don't comment on the implications but this surely makes it far less likely that Iran feels a need to target Israel from Iranian soil in retaliation.
QUOTE STARTS
Ismail Haniyeh, a top leader of Hamas, was assassinated on Wednesday by an explosive device covertly smuggled into the Tehran guesthouse where he was staying, according to seven Middle Eastern officials, including two Iranians, and an American official.
The bomb had been hidden approximately two months ago in the guesthouse, according to five of the Middle Eastern officials. The guesthouse is run and protected by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps and is part of a large compound, known as Neshat, in an upscale neighborhood of northern Tehran.
Mr. Haniyeh was in Iran’s capital for the presidential inauguration. The bomb was detonated remotely, the five officials said, once it was confirmed that he was inside his room at the guesthouse. The blast also killed a bodyguard.
...
Israel decided to carry out the assassination outside Qatar, where Mr. Haniyeh and other senior members of Hamas’s political leadership live. The Qatari government has been mediating the negotiations between Israel and Hamas over a cease-fire in Gaza.
...
The Tasnim News Agency, the media outlet for the Guards, reported that witnesses said an object like a missile had hit the window of Mr. Haniyeh’s room and exploded.
But the two Iranian officials, the members of the Guards briefed on the attack, confirmed that the explosion had taken place inside Mr. Haniyeh’s room, and said that an initial investigation showed that the explosives had been placed there sometime in advance.
They described the attack’s precision and sophistication as similar in tactic to the remote controlled A.I. robot weapon that Israel used to assassinate Iran’s top nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh in 2020.
Israeli assassination operations outside of the country are primarily carried out by Mossad, the country’s foreign intelligence service. David Barnea, the head of Mossad, said in January that his service was “obliged” to hunt down the leaders of Hamas, the group behind the Oct. 7 attacks in Israel.
. Bomb Smuggled Into Tehran Guesthouse Months Ago Killed Hamas Leader
My comment: This is an illegal assassination in international law however they did it, even though Haniyeh was the political head of a terrorist group. He was not engaged in combat with Israel or directing combat with Israel, he was just attending a funeral in Iran.
Haniyeh had sanctuary in Qatar which is why they targeted him in Iran.
This means that there is no way the US would publicly condone it and Israel may well continue to deny responsibility.
So we likely depend on Iran for the details of what happened.
US SAYS RISK OF AN ALL-OUT WAR BETWEEN ISRAEL AND LEBANON IS EXAGGERATED - AND NO PROSPECT OF A WORLD WAR EVER
There is NEVER ANY RISK OF A WORLD WAR from the Middle East first.
When the US talks about all-out war it means turning from the current low level conflict with Hezbollah in Lebanon with Hezbollah firing hundreds of rockets at Israel to one where both sides go all out.
Hezbollah has the capability of firing hundreds of thousands of rockets at Israel and a significant number would get through the iron dome in an all-out war.
Israel would on its side be able to bomb anywhere in Lebanon but would have to be careful because Hezbollah unlike Hamas has the ability to shoot down low-flying bombers. An all-out war would likely also include an Israeli ground offensive with tanks as in Gaza Strip. But with Hezbollah far more capable than Hamas at fighting back and destroying the tanks.
The difference with Gaza Strip is that Israel can't blockade Lebanon and Hezbollah has access to advanced air defence systems, cruise missiles, rockets, shoulder mounted ground to air missiles, etc etc which it gets mainly from Iran via Syria. Hamas doesn't have any of that.
Neither side want a war like that which would lead to thousands of Israeli and tens or hundreds of thousands of Lebanese deaths.
The Lebanon strike by itself would likely be the end of that exchange. It was a carefully calibrated response to the Hezbollah attack on the soccer field.
Hezbollah would only do a symbolic response - wait a day or two and then fire 100+ rockets at Israel which it knows will all or almost all be shot down by the iron dome (at some expense to Israel for the cost of the air interceptors).
Adding this strike in Tehran, it's more likely to lead to a delay in the Gaza Strip ceasefire because of killing a Hamas leader - and it is more likely to lead to continuing rocket attacks from Hezbolah and from Houthi but short of all-out war as in a major war between Israel and Lebanon because Hezbollah still won't want that and also Netanyahu would not want to be associated with an all-out war that would lead to thousands of Israeli deaths.
It is never any risk for anything like a world war because there is no way that Russia would get involved. Its main interest is in the Tartus military marine base on the Mediterranean in Syria. It supports Assad's regime in Syria but it is also on reasonably friendly terms with Israel.
IRAN LIKELY TO KEEP TO PROXIES
Iran will want to keep to proxies, and this time though it was an attack on Iran it killed a member of Hamas not an Iranian figure. So it's not likely to lead to a direct attack on Israel by Iran likely instead to focus on supporting militant groups in the area.
So - expect continuing strikes from the Houthis and Hezbollah and fighting continuing in Gaza Strip but not an all out war.
And a ceasefire in Gaza Strip would quickly lead to a ceasefire with Lebanon. Details would need careful negotiation for weeks or months but the ceasefire can be immediate.
For background see my
LEBANON IS DIFFERENT FROM GAZA STRIP - A DEMOCRATIC GOVERNMENT WITH ONLY MINORITY SUPPORT FOR HEZBOLLAH - AND HEZBOLLAH IS DIFFERENT FROM HAMAS - MUCH MORE OF A MILITANT GROUP TARGETS MILITARY INSTALLATIONS IN ISRAEL AND IS TERRORIST MAINLY BECAUSE OF TWO HISTORICAL HIGH PROFILE CAR BOMBINGS ONE KILLING 241 US MILITARY PERSONEL IN 1983 THE OTHER KILLED 29 CIVIILIANS IN AN EMBASSY IN 1992
Lebanon are very different from Gaza Strip. It has a democratic government though one that doesn't function well while Gaza Strip doesn't.
Hezbollah are different from Hamas too. They are terrorist mainly because of two high profile car bombs.
The Hezbollah commander likely killed in this strike is Fuad Shukr.
He is linked to a car bomb in 1983 that killed 220 US Marines, 18 Navy soldiers, and 3 Army soldiers in 1983.
The other car bomb targeted an Israeli embassy in Argentina in 1992, and did kill civilians. It killed 29 people and injured 242 on March 17th , 1992.
But apart from that one they haven't generally deliberately targeted civilians as far as I know, at least that’s the only incident mentioned in summaries I’ve seen.
They are a militant group also engaged in illegal smuggling.
. Drug economy in Lebanon - Wikipedia
They have similar ideas to Hamas that they don't think Israel is legitimate but the sources I found say they have their arms for fighting with Israel over the small disputed border areas along the blue line not for attacking Israeli civilians.
This is factually important for how Hezbollah will respond.
When it comes to strikes on Israel they aim for military targets. They have done many strikes since Oct 07. Hezbollah have killed 45 Israelis of which at least 21 were military.
. Strike in Israeli-controlled Golan Heights kills at least 12 and threatens to spark a wider war
For more on this see my blog:
The Iron dome does save many lives. And there is some risk of Hezbollah killing civilians if the Iron dome doesn't shoot down all the missiles they are likely to fire in retaliation. But it is not likely that Hezbollah aim at a civilian target. The main risk is of a misfire that hits civilians.
Hezbollah are likely to fire 100+ rockets at Israel as a protest as they have done when previous commanders were hit but they will expect almost all to be shot down so this would be symbolic rather than a serious attack which would involve tens or hundreds of thousands of rockets.
QUOTE STARTS
Fuad Shukr is believed to be a senior advisor to Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, the US has previously said.
It has been offering a $5m (3.9m) reward for information about him, alleging he also played a "central role" in the 1983 bombing of a US Marines barracks in Beirut, which killed 241 US military personnel.
Haret Hreik, the area of Dahiyeh hit by the air strike, is densely populated and strongly fortified. Dahiyeh itself is surrounded by Hezbollah checkpoints.
Speaking after the Israeli strike, White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters that US President Joe Biden believed a wider war between Israel and Hezbollah could be avopided.
"We do not want to see an escalation, we do not want to see an all-out war," she said.
Earlier in the day, two unnamed Israeli officials told Reuters news agency that while Israel sought to hurt Hezbollah, it did not want to drag Lebanon into all-out war.
The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) later said there would be no new instructions for Israelis on taking shelter, suggesting they did not anticipate an immediate or significant Hezbollah reaction.
Both sides are aware of the cost of all-out war, which could bring in Iran in support of its Lebanese proxy.
. Israel claims it killed senior Hezbollah commander in strike on Beirut
On possible responses by Hezbollah before this latest news, this is the ISW summary. Most likely a large salvo of 100+ rockets similar to their responses to killing other Hezbollah commanders. May be more than usual because of the seniority of Fuad Shukr the second in command of Hezbollah if he was indeed killed.
TWEET THREAD STARTS
1. Hezbollah may decide to respond with a major rocket and drone barrage on northern Israel that resembles previous Hezbollah attacks in retaliation for previous IDF strikes on senior commanders.
2/ Hezbollah has previously responded by launching salvoes of 100+ rockets targeting IDF bases in northern Israel and the Golan Heights.
3/ Hezbollah could attempt to build a strike package that it calibrates to avoid a strong Israeli response, thereby allowing tensions on the border to diffuse and return to the standard tit-for-tat attacks.
4/ Hezbollah’s strike package would presumably be larger and strike deeper into Israel than past retaliatory attacks given Shukr’s seniority, however.
5/ Israeli sources said immediately after the strike targeting Shukr that this would be the extent of Israel’s response to the Majdal Shams rocket attack, and that further escalation is dependent on Hezbollah's response.
6/ Hezbollah officials messaged on July 29 that Hezbollah did not want an all-out war, suggesting that Hezbollah will temper its response to deescalate the situation.
7/ There remains the risk that even a carefully calculated strike package would unintentionally strike a sensitive target in Israel and prompt further escalation.
Lebanon differs from Gaza Strip. It has a democratically elected government and Hezbollah has very limited representation in the government which covers a diversity of views though it is not functioning very well at present because of the financial crisis in Lebanon, and because when their prime minister resigned just before the end of his term they weren't able to agree on a replacement.
The council for Foreign Affairs says:
QUOTE The most recent national elections, in 2022, saw Hezbollah maintain its 13 seats in Lebanon’s 128-member Parliament, though the party and its allies lost their majority.
EVENTUAL RESOLUTION OF THE ISRAEL LEBANON CONFLICT AFTER END OF GAZA STRIP CONFLICT LIKELY TO INVOLVE LOTS OF DIFFICULT NEGOTIATIONS BUT WITH OUTLINES FOR AN AGREEMENT
The UN security council resolution calling for a demilitarized zone.
. Security Council Resolution 1701: The situation in the Middle East
This is a solution where a large area of southern Lebanon is demilitarized between the river and the Israeli border, The Litani River is shown in solid blue here
:
Text on graphic: Litani river shown in blue
Hezbollah
- attack Israeli symbolically in protest against the Gaza Strip bombing
- are militants and only hit military targets since Oct 07
Count as terrorist because of two high profile car bombs
- killed 241 military personel with car bomb in 1983
- killed 29 civilians in 1992
They don't take civilian hostages or torture civilians
- have their missiles to fight over small border areas between Israel and Lebanon
- political wing is a minority in the Lebanon democratically elected government
All this ends with a Gaza ceasefire
- Lebanon and Israel have agreed on 7 points out of 13 points of disagreement
- eventual deal will likely involve a demilitarized zone in Lebanon south of the Litari river
Lebanon will surely go to an immediate ceasefire when the Gaza Strip ceasefire starts as will the Houthi rebels.
Negotiations for a peace treaty with Israel will take longer but are well underway.
This is about Lebanon’s call for peace in Gaza Strip
. Lebanon calls for ending Israeli war on Gaza
. Blue Line (withdrawal line) - Wikipedia
Lebanon says there are 13 points of disagreement along the Blue Line.
QUOTE "We face a historic opportunity to liberate our lands and prevent the enemy from invading our borders and our airspace," Nasrallah said in his speech.
Some of the main ones mentioned in that article are
the Land Terminus point B1 between Israel and Lebanon where the blue line reaches the sea
- Lebanon wants Israel to withdraw from this areaGhajar / Rhadjar - an Alawaite Arab village on the Hasbani River. Split in half by the blue line but Israel controls all of it, Lebanon wants half
Mount Dov / Sheba farms - raised land north of the village of Majdal- Shams of strategic importance, Lebanon thinks it should be part of Lebanon
QUOTE Dorothy Shea, former US ambassador to Lebanon, said recent talks between delegations of the two nations has concluded in an agreement regarding 7 of the 13 points of contention, this according to Asharq Al-Awsat, an Arabic international newspaper based in London.
They are relatively minor points but ones that matter to Lebanon and Israel.
There are two other main issues mentioned in that article
Lebanon doesn’t currently have a prime minister so it’s hard to conclude an agreement until they have one (haven’t had one since 2024 when Michel Aoun resigned the day before his office ended without a successor)
The issue is that after Lebanon’s financial crisis its government hasn’t been able to agree on a prime minister to lead them out of it Lebanese President Aoun leaves office amid political uncertaintyMany in Hezbollah are landowners in southern Lebanon south of the Litani river and don’t want to be forced out from their lands and homes
So it’s a difficult situation but neither side want a war and both will try to find a diplomatic way forward.
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