Mount Fuji has snow late in 2024 because of warm October - warmer world has similar snow levels but more variation - more snow in more snowy years - less snow in less snowy years - not sudden warming
TEXT ON GRAPHIC:
In a warmer world Mount Fuji has
less snow in less snowy years
more snow in more snowy years
NOT sudden warming
we never get sudden warming
Background graphic: File:Views of Mount Fuji from Ōwakudani 20211202.jpg - Wikimedia Commons
Copy of this on quora:
It is not a big deal.
1. It does NOT mean a winter without snow - just the snow cap forming a bit later in the year.
2. It does NOT mean that Mount Fuji will have less snow in the future than in the past. The prediction instead is that it will have more snow in a warmer climate in the snowy years and less snow in a warmer climate in the less snowy years. I.e. more year to year variation.
So in a more snowy year in the future it may have snow even before October 🙂.
And none of this is anything to do with sudden warming if that is what anyone is worryin about. It is just the normal year on year variation plus some effect of global warming.
we can't have sudden warming.
There aren't any warming tipping points from ANY source, methane or anything else. Many don't realize, for a warming tipping point you need to trap or absorb as much extra heat as a warmer world radiates. That is VERY HARD to do.
Virtually impossible by IPCC IPCC AR6 / WG1 / Ch 7.4.2.7 Synthesis page 7–73:
It's as expected according to global warming the less snowy years will be less snowy than usual, the most snowy years will be more snowy than usual. It will still have snowcaps in winter.
In a warmer climate Japanese mountains in central Japan like Mount Fuji will have more snow in the most snowy years and less snow in the least snowy years - so more variation year to year. But overall similar levels.
So this is clearly one of the less snowy years. But it's only delayed a few weeks. They will get snow eventually this winter as in every winter.
The Mount Fuji snowcap usually starts to form around October 2 but this is the latest they've been since at least the start of the 130 years of scientific records.
It will have snow in winter. It is just delayed by a few weeks this year compared to a typical year.
QUOTE STARTS
The snowcap on Mount Fuji begins to form on average around October 2, but this year, warmer temperatures have kept the volcano without snow, even with November just around the corner. Last year, the snowcap began forming on October 5. The previous record for the latest snowfall had been October 26, a record set in 1955 and tied in 2016.
. Japan's Mount Fuji Has Now Remained Snowless for the Longest Time in Its 130-Year Record
There was a heat wave at the start of October which wsa more than three times more likely as a result of climate change.
. Analysis: Climate change influenced unusual October heat in Japan
2 K here is Kelvin and is the same as 2 C of warming. We are headed for below 2 C so long as countries keep to their net zero pledges..
QUOTE STARTS
Heavy daily snowfall remarkably increases due to global warming in the years with heavy snow cover. At low elevations below 500 mASL, snowfall decreases in all ranges of snowfall intensity in the 4 K warming climate, while the frequency of heavy daily snowfall increases in the 2 K warming climate. Precipitation is enhanced around the Japan-Sea Polar-airmass Convergence Zone and the mountainous area facing the Sea of Japan, resulting in strengthened heavy snowfall at high elevations where the winter mean temperature is approximately − 10 °C in the present climate. On the other hand, remarkable reductions in snow cover and snowfall are projected in years with light snow cover. Our results indicate that global warming causes heavy and light mid-winter snowfalls at high elevations of Japan’s Northern Alps that are more extreme than those in the present climate.
We are headed for 1.7 C with current pledges which are realistic ones that countries can keep and most big emitters can be expected to equal or almost equal or exceed their pledges.
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