Multiple wars going on at the same time do NOT mean a world war - very common - 6 occasions with 3 simultaneous wars - and 2 other occasions with 4 at once - from when I was a teenager to age 50

Multiple local wars in different parts of the world for different reasons do NOT make a world war. Indeed that is very common.

Video: Multiple local wars not a WW

This graphic may help.

This shows all the interstate wars that happened from when I was a young teenager through to when I was 50, from the Vietnam war to the Iraq war inclusive.

The largest number of simultaneous wars in that time period is 4. Happened twice (both during the Vietanam war). There are 6 other occasions with 3 simultaneous wars.
.
Data from here

https://correlatesofwar.org/data-sets/cow-war/

I got Perplexity AI to turn the dataset into a graph with the start and end dates.

I haven’t checked every war but it looks fine and this sort of thing is algorithmically straightforward for it to do.

https://www.perplexity.ai/search/is-there-a-good-graphic-somewh-K.aNthCdTsGehttToaf18Q#2

So then compare with the current situation.

We have three current wars:

• Ukraine war - started by Russia, combatants Ukraine and Russia.

• Hezbollah - started by Hezbollah during the Iran war - combatants Israel and Hezbollah and related to the Iran war

• Iran war - started by the US and Israel - not likely to last many weeks

Only one of those was started by the US (along with Israel).

I’m only listing interstate wars there not civil wars like the one in Sudan.

Gaza Strip is arguably interstate but hard to categorize. Anyway it is no longer an active war though there are still strikes.

• Gaza strip - war no longer in progress but some strikes by Israelis from time to time and very severe living conditions, started by Hamas, response to it by Israel seen by many as being excessive

That is not unusual. From the graphic it was 6 occasions with 3 wars simultaneously and 2 occasions with 4 wars from when I was 11 to when I was 50. That makes it at least 3 simultaneous wars roughly twice a decade.

And NOBODY in the mainstream news in all that time AFAIK claimed that ANY of them was a world war or risked a world war.

When we had 3 or even 4 wars at once, the media NEVER called any of those other simultaneous wars a world war or claimed that having three wars at once in different parts of the world meant we risked a world war - which it doesn’t. That slant seems to be a new phenomenon. It is NOT TRUE.

It wouldn’t matter if there were a dozen current interstate wars - never reached that number. That wouldn’t be a world war if they were started for different reasons.

We did have concerns of a nuclear war during the cold war but it was a concern about it happening by mistake, some misunderstanding, with more and more precuations built in to make sure it wouldn’t happen. It can’t realistically happen by mistake today.

Also

Wars also getting less intense, with the Ukraine war as a rare exception

What that bar chart doesn’t show is that the Vietnam war was far higher intensity than the ones since then. And the Gulf war again far higher intensity than the others. Though it was a short war it was very high intensity in terms of the numbers of soldiers fighting.

Apart from the Ukraine war. That has more soldiers fighting in it than the Gulf war. But that is because of the unusual nature of the fighting, with both sides unable to achieve air superiority and the very long front line, well over 1000 km long with static fighting for a very long period of time.

It’s barely shifted in well over 3 years of fighting, just a few small cities (more like towns as we use the word in the UK, more like Slough or Carlisle or Harrogate than Oxford in size) and villages won by Russia. Bakhmut is by far the largest city that Russia has won in 3 years and it’s around the size of those towns (71,000 to 76,000). But Ukrainians and Americans call it a city. Russia also won Avdiivka and Pokrofsk far smaller than Bakhmut. And the Ukrainians won and then lost Sudzha, even smaller at 4,000.

http://lovemytown.co.uk/populations/townstable1.asp

So it’s been a long war of a lot of fighting but very little change on the ground.

The number of soldiers you need to fight is roughly proportional to the length of the front line. The reason that China has 2 million soldiers is to defend its very long land border. It’s border is over 22,000 km so the 2 million soldiers only work out at one soldier every 11 meters along its border. So the very large size of the Chinese army is deceptive, they can only afford to deploy a small % abroard as almost all are needed to guard the borders.

Similarly the Russia / Ukrainian soldiers are at about 1000 soldiers per kilometer of front line on the Russian side and rather less on the Ukrainian side, which isn’t that much for active all out war.

I think it is pretty clear that Putin would NEVER have entered such a war if he’d known how it would turn out and after the war ends there won’t be anyone else he COULD invade like that. NATO is so vastly superior that any engagement would end quickly in favour of NATO so he won’t try. He’s not going to try to invade Kazakhstan or something.

If he attacked Georgia it is just too small a country to have such a long front line.

I think the main risk of large-scale fighting might be if Russia breaks up in a way that involves fighting. Hopefully it stays together or breaks up peacefully as for the former Soviet Union.

Hopefully this Iran war ends with a peace treaty. If so that would end the main causes for fighting throughout the Middle East which has been one of the main areas with fighting for decades.

Gradually we see this pattern globally of larger and larger zones of peace. So I think that is likely how it ends eventually - not an end of warfare in some global peace deal. But rather, larger and larger security regions where all the borders are settled or else disputes are settled peacefully until eventually it covers the entire world.

About 14% of the world population is exposed to conflict as in - not necessarily in the conflct but within 5 km of it. This includes the drug mafias in Mexico so it is a very broad categorization of conflict.

https://acleddata.com/platform/conflict-exposure-calculator

That means 86% of the world population is at least 5 km away from any conflict. So the world is for the most part at peace. The remaining 14% are exposed to conflict but the numbers in regions actually at war will be much smaller especially if you confine it to interstate war.

Not surprisingly it shows an increase in the last few years - the population of Ukraine is around 40 million and a significant part of the Russian population is also affected. But once that war is over then that will be another region at peace assuming Ukraine gets a proper peace treaty as seems likely when the war ends.

As I said in my longer blog post, Hans Blix thinks eventually we are headed for a world without interstate conflict.

Eventually the whole world will be as stable as NATO is internally.

This is based on this discussion in our new blog (remove the cleanskipx if you want to visit the underlying blog)

https://ddebunked.org/d/2899-multiple-wars-going-on-at-the-same-time-do-not-mean-a-world-war-very-common-6-occasions-with-3-simultaneous-wars-and-2-other-occasions-with-4-at-once-from-when-i-was-a-teenager-to-age-50?cleanskipx

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