Nearly all countries globally call for immediate sustained ceasefire in Gaza Strip or abstained - Idea any want to escalate fails basic fact check - can’t be a world war
Only Israel and USA have ICBMs and nukes and won’t fight each other
The risk is a continuing humanitarian crisis in Gaza Strip. And possibly more terrorism but they are likely only to do symbolic things. The aim of the terrorist organizations Hezbollah and Houthi and of Iran is to send a message not to provoke Israel. That is the last thing they want to do.
67% of countries globally are calling for an immediate and sustained ceasefire including Iran, Pakistan, Turkey, China, Russia, and many countries in all the continents. Only 8% voted against, the remaining 25% abstained. Remarkable unanimity.
The idea that anyone wants to escalate it to a larger war is just false.
It is also totally impossible for this to lead to any world war. The only ones operating in the area with ICBMs and nukes are the USA and Israel and they are NOT going to fire nukes at each other of course. Russia were first to call for a ceasefire and have very close connections with 15% of the Israeli population speaking Russian.
China are not interested in either Israel or Palestine and called for a ceasefire long ago. Nobody else can fire missiles far. Lebanon essentially can only reach Israel. Iran can reach anywhere in the Middle East but not much further. The Houthi rebels in Yemen have long range cruise missiles that can reach Israel or Egypt, certainly not going to try to attack Europe or the USA.
Turkey and Pakistan, the only Arabic countries with access to nukes or ICBMs, are both calling for a sustained ceasefire. Turkey doesn’t really have nukes as though it hosts some tactical nukes it can’t use them without authorization codes from the USA. Nuclear Weapons in Europe: Mapping U.S. and Russian Deployments
Iran can't hit US. It has no nukes and no ICBMs.
QUOTE "The facts are clear: None of the missiles Iran has under development come close to being able to hit the United States. Nor can they reach much of Europe beyond its southeastern corner."
Ignore Iranian sabre rattling. They say "Israel must be erased from the map" and such like almost like saying "Hi", it's expected, many times a year. They never act on these statements, can't.
See also my:
Short answer: Nobody in the Middle East conflict has nukes or ICBMs except Israel, and the USA and they aren't going to fight each other. Russia , China, Pakistan, Turkey are all firmly asking for a total ceasefire.
So it is utterly impossible to have any exchange of nukes or ICBMs which is what most people who contact me are scared of. I think it is just an old idea from the cold war from the movie Threads perhaps, it made some sense for a scenario between the old Soviet Union and the USA.
The idea of a world war makes no sense with modern day Russia and I find no reputable source that shares any credible scenario not even a short one sentence description of how it could lead in any way to a world war.
It is just not a world war situation. it is a sad humanitarian situation.
Yes there is a blackout now. WHO, MSF even the BBC correspondent in Gaza, nobody has any connection except a very few with simcards for outside Gaza and a couple of feeds via satellite internet. I am a biti surprised the UK correspondent doens’t have a satellite feed but apparently not. Nor UNRWA nor the WHO or MSF. UK hasn’t been able to find any communications -except those two satellite feeds, one of the skyline where they can see the bombs falling and one of a hospital in Southern Gaza where they have a live feed of people just walking past.
The bombing has also intensified. Obviously lots of concern for civilians.
This does NOT mean there will be a world war! Can’t. Not from the Middle East. It doesn’t mean any kind of a war. Just an atrocity against Gaza citizens which almost the entire world says is wrong now.
QUOTE The United Nations General Assembly on Friday adopted a resolution calling for an “immediate, durable and sustained humanitarian truce” between Israeli forces and Hamas militants in Gaza. It also demands “continuous, sufficient and unhindered” provision of lifesaving supplies and services for civilians trapped inside the enclave, as news reports suggest Israel has expanded ground operations and intensified it bombing campaign.
The Jordanian resolution has been adopted by the General Assembly, with 120 votes in favour, 14 against and 45 abstentions. Another reminder of the key provisions of the resolution now adopted, which is a non-binding expression of the majority view of UN Member States. It marks the first formal response of the United Nations to the hostilities since the Hamas terror attacks of 7 October, after the Security Council failed on four occasions to reach consensus on any action.
. UN General Assembly adopts Gaza resolution calling for immediate and sustained ‘humanitarian truce’
It is non-binding. But even a binding resolution can be ignored. So that’s not really its purpose. It is sending a message to the world that more than 2/3 of the UN agrees. It just got over the threshold at 120 votes in favour (67% of votes). Only 14 against (7.8% of votes). 45 abstentions (about 25% of votes)
TEXT ON GRAPHIC: Voting for immediate and sustained ceasefire and unrestricted humanitarian supplies:
Nuclear states: China, Pakistan, Russia, (India abstained).
In Europe: Belgium, Ireland, Lechtenstein, Luxembourg, Norway, Portugal, Slovenia, Spain, Switzerland, Turkey.
In Middle East: Egypt, Iran, Jordan, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Qatar.
Mexico. Most of Central and Southern America.
Most of Africa. Most of Asia (except India abstained)
The USA is one of the few voting against. The UK, Canada, Germany and Italy, abstained are amongst the few abstaining as is India amongst the more notable abstentions.
The BBC summarizes it like this;
Many Western states publicly back Israel. The US voted against Friday’s resolution, while Canada and the UK abstained. The EU (which cannot vote as a bloc) expressed support for Israel, but its members are split. Germany and Italy, which support Israel’s right to defend itself, abstained. Others such as Spain have urged European leaders “not to make us complicit in genocide.
[The complete list from the graphic is Belgium, Ireland, Lechtenstein, Luxembourg, Norway, Portugal, Slovenia, Spain, Switzerland, and Turkey voted for the truce, the rest abstained, none voted against]
Russia, which hosted Hamas recently but also pursues good relations with Israel, voted for the truce.
Most Middle Eastern statesvoted in favour, and many have strongly denounced Israel’s military operation. Iraq and Tunisia were the two abstentions.
Most countries in South America also voted in support of the resolution. Colombia has threatened to break ties with Israel, while Brazil has issued stern statements against Israel’s bombing of Gaza. Paraguay was the only South American country that voted against Friday’s resolution.
Nearly all ofAsia– including China, which is trying to position itself as a peace broker in the Middle East – voted for the truce. India abstained, amid speculation that the government was strengthening ties with Israel.
Israel Gaza live news: Dozens reported killed in Gaza refugee camp blast - BBC News
We get constant news in the UK about the humanitarian situation.
About 3 in 4 of the public in the UK support a humanitarian ceasefire. 76% for should or probably should. Even amongst Conservative voters its a total of 73% in favour. Overall, just 8% disagree and 16^ don’t know.
Summary graphic see tweet
Details here:
That's from October 19th. The number is surely higher now.
The First Minister of Scotland Humza Yousaf (who took over from Nicoal Sturgeon) calls for an immediate ceasefire and humanitarian corridor and for innocent civilians who want to leave to be able to
QUOTE We should stand together and united in unequivocally calling on all parties to commit to an immediate ceasefire to allow a humanitarian corridor to be opened, so that lifesaving supplies can get into Gaza and innocent civilians who want to leave be given safe passage out.
Letter here: First Minister calls for immediate ceasefire in Gaza
About it here: Ceasefire in Gaza: First Minister writes to UK political leaders
His mother in law, granny of his kids, a retired nurse from Dundee in Scotland, is trapped in Gaza strip and at risk of being killed by Israeli bombs at any moment and can't get out, she was there for a short visit to her son and his family, her son is a doctor in Gaza and also visiting her own husband's 92 year old mother who is sick and is also in Gaza strip.
Her tweet here (shown on Nitter): HumzaYousaf/status/1712744173126750323
Details: Scottish first minister Humza Yousaf tells of war’s impact on in-laws in Gaza
Same call from UK charities. Urgent-statement-uk-charities-call-for-immediate-ceasefire-humanitarian-aid-and-lifting-siege-on-gaza
Same also from UK layers, they don't specifically say ceasefire but call on UK to fulfill its international legal obligations, which would include calling for a ceasefire.
. UK Lawyer's Letter - Lawyer's Letter UK
So far our prime minister Rishi Sunak is just ignoring the calls from the devolved parliament and not replying to his letters and as you see the UK abstained in the UN vote.
That is sure to lose him a lot of his support - the Conservative party is losing in the polls, lost lots of local election results to Labour and the next election will be held some time next year.
What Israel is doing was legal in WW2 and I think their government is just deaf to how humanitarian law changed in 1949.
They simply don’t understand that most of Gaza Strip consists of non combatants.
My analogy
TEXT ON GRAPHIC
Imagine a block of flats with 100 people in it - and 2 are terrorists who did horrific crimes, but even most of the people there don't know who they are.
The terrorists have a hostage hidden somewhere, nobody else knows where.
Is it right to cut off food, water, medicine, electricity and fuel from all 100 people until the terrorists either release the hostage or they all die?
Is it right to bomb the block of flats to kill the terrorists if many of the 98 innocents will be killed before both of them die?
Israel says YES. WAS legal in WW2.
Been illegal since 1949 and most of the world says NO.
I am sure at some point the UK and USA will have to move. It's a question of when.
Israel seem determined to just keep up the blockade even if 10,000 or 100,000 or more die, at some point it will be too much for the UK and the USA it is only a matter of when in my view.
When Israel finds even their closest ally USA is not in support of their actions I think they may reconsider. Nobody else can actually make the decisions for Israel or force them to do a ceasefire or let in humanitarian assistance. They are a sovereign nation and if they continue on this path then nobody else can stop them short of a war with Israel which nobody is going to do.
But they are dependent on supplies from the USA to continue the war, they know that they need some allies going forward after it is all over, and I think even if they are completely unable to understand where the rest of the world is coming from and why they think this is unethical or illegal, I think they would come around to it.
And some Jews agreed on this matter long ago.
It is a small number of Israeli voices at present but it’s a seed that will surely grow the more this continues.
Note that Iran, Turkey, Pakistan all called for an immediate ceasefire. They do NOT want to escalate this.
Also notice that even the USA called for humanitarian pauses in its UN Security Council resolution. China rejected it because they say it had language that would make a two state solution for ever unachievable.
I cover that at the end here:
This graphic may help as a simple reminder of the main points, why we can’t have a world war starting in the modern Middle East:
WW3 in Middle East - Nobody in the area has ICBMs or nukes except Israel. Russia and China do not support Hamas
BULLSHIT
See also:
BLOG: Humanitarian corridor opened on Saturday 23rd October to Gaza - and NO risk of a world war No chance of draft in USA for anything to do with Middle East - USA has a large professional highly motivated army - USA didn’t need the draft even for 170,300 soldiers for the Iraq war - a new soldier needs 6 months training before they can fight
BLOG: Iranian Death to America explained - doesn't mean what it seems to
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