No risk of a world war only air strikes - well short of Iraq or Iran wars - and Israel can't invade as for Lebanon - Israel and Iran far apart on the ground - next post on its way soon

In my original post I said that Iran would likely wait days to weeks before replying - that was when it seemed like a one-off strike by Israel. However this was different, Israel quickly struck again and told Iran it would keep attacking for as long as Iran continued to press for uranium enrichment in the peace talks.

As soon as Iran realized what was going on, there was no point in Iran's usual long period before a response to de-escalate as nothing it could do would stop the attacks.

There is still absolutely no risk of a world war and never will be. For the reasons I explained there.

So what happened is, Israel didn't do one strike but kept attacking over and over and told Iran it is going ot keep striking . That changed Iran's calculus.

Delaying its response would do nothing to slow down the Israeli attacks.

Iran now does a blow for every several blows by Israel to show to its people that it’s defiant. But it doesn’t have Israel’s capabilities for precision attacks or sabotage or infiltration of Israel.

So Iran can’t realistially damage Israel’s military capabilities or air defences.

So Iran’s responses are symbolic. It could flood Israel’s air defences with thousands of ballistic missiles, probably, but that would achieve nothing except civilian deaths in Israel and boost military support for Israel.

So it is doing symbolic responses to try to deter Israel.

This will end either when Israel decides it has achieved its objectives whatever they are or when Iran agrees to drop its request to be able to do civilian uranium enrichment.

My next post will go into why Iran wants that ability.

Also sorry, in the original version of the post I said that it seemed very unlikely that Israel would attack. Turns out that Israel was deliberately giving the impression to Iran that it was not likely to attack in order to catch them unawares and the US also seems to have been surprised by it too, they took those precautions but they may not have really expected it to happen. So that's what confused me.

I edited my blog post and removed that not to hide it but just because it is pointlessly confusing to scared people to include a sentence like that when they know it is mistaken and if I include it and label it as out of date it is just going to get in the way of explaining what’s happening now clearly, which is what they want to know.

There is no risk of a world war. The worst case here falls far short of the Iraq war or the Gulf war and only Iran would be on its side not even Lebanon or Syria any more. Plus proxies now diminished to mainly the Houthi rebels thousnads of miles away in Yemen not able to do much.

Russia remains resolutely neutral on anything involving Iran / Israel and calls for both sides to stop fighting.

I did some updates of my previous blog post here:

However it’s got to the point where it needs a new blog post.

Hopefully later today.

I also plan posts on:

• US reconciliation bill.

• LA riots.

• TRO on Trump’s use of national guards and how it’s likely to pan out (decent chance the appeals court supports the TRO).

Cover those and many more in replies in the Facebook group but need to have self contained posts here before I can hit publish. Even then even taking a lot of care then I can’t see the future of course. Some things are clear, that there is no possibility of a world war or larger war from anything in the Middle East.

But I also have to cover things where people are worried but the future can go various ways and of course I can’t see the future and need to talk about what seems likely at the current time and that can change as circumstances change as in this case. I never said that it was certain but I should have flagged more clearly that this part of what I was talking about is depending on decisions and geopolitics which we don’t have secret information about.

It’s not set up for a group conversation in the way Facebook is - and it’s also hard enough for me to keep up with conversations in Facebook where aso we have lots of other debunkers.

If you can join Facebook it’s the best way to see the material I post here at an earlier stage and also work by our other debunks.

CONTACT ME VIA PM OR ON FACEBOOK OR EMAIL

You can Direct Message me on Substack - but I check this rarely. Or better, email me at support@robertinventor.com

Or best of all Direct Message me on Facebook if you are okay joining Facebook. My Facebook profile is here:. Robert Walker I usually get Facebook messages much faster than on the other platforms as I spend most of my day there.

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NEW SHORT DEBUNKS

I do many more fact checks and debunks on our facebook group than I could ever write up as blog posts. They are shorter and less polished but there is a good chance you may find a short debunk for some recent concern.

I often write them up as “short debunks”

See Latest short debunks for new short debunks

I also tweet the debunks and short debunks to my Blue Sky page here:

. doomsdaydebunks.bsky.social

I do the short debunks more often but they are less polished - they are copies of my longer replies to scared people in the Facebook group.

I go through phases when I do lots of short debunks. Recently I’ve taken to converting comments in the group into posts in the group that resemble short debunks and most of those haven’t yet been copied over to the wiki.

TIPS FOR DEALING WITH DOOMSDAY FEARS

If suicidal or helping someone suicidal see my:

BLOG: Supporting someone who is suicidal

If you have got scared by any of this, health professionals can help. Many of those affected do get help and find it makes a big difference.

They can’t do fact checking, don’t expect that of them. But they can do a huge amount to help with the panic, anxiety, maladaptive responses to fear and so on.

Also do remember that therapy is not like physical medicine. The only way a therapist can diagnose or indeed treat you is by talking to you and listening to you. If this dialogue isn’t working for whatever reason do remember you can always ask to change to another therapist and it doesn’t reflect badly on your current therapist to do this.

Also check out my Seven tips for dealing with doomsday fears based on things that help those scared, including a section about ways that health professionals can help you.

I know that sadly many of the people we help can’t access therapy for one reason or another - usually long waiting lists or the costs.

There is much you can do to help yourself. As well as those seven tips, see my:

BLOG: Doing what matters at times of stress
— new WHO booklet to help with mental health during COVID19 pandemic

BLOG: Breathe in and out slowly and deeply and other ways to calm a panic attack

BLOG: Tips from CBT
— might help some of you to deal with doomsday anxieties

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