No risk of nukes in the Gaza strip - IS a risk of rapid HUMANITARIAN crisis because of Israeli blockade - most countries are at peace - can all look for kindness &peace in our lives & wish for both
Wishing kindness and peace for BOTH Israel and the Gaza strip
No there is NO RISK OF A NUCLEAR WAR. There is a severe risk of a humanitarian crisis in the Gaza strip. What Hamas did were very serious war crimes. But what Israel is doing also is verging on a war crime already and will be if they continue to blockade the Gaza strip until it causes a humanitarian crisis.
The crisis may be very rapid if Israel don’t open a humanitarian corridor. Already there are very serious issues in the hospitals. Without power as soon as their fuel runs out any hospital equipment that needs electricity will no longer function, that may be days away. Also though most people can live for weeks without food, they can only survive days without water and Gaza strip with 2.3 million people is an area of sand dunes with no natural sources of water, not even rain, the rains don’t come until November and are only 9 inches a year in the North, less in the south.
Hopefully Israel will moderate the blockade before that happens but the situation is already very serious and there are also many innocent deaths and injuries from the use of missiles to demolish skyscrapers in a crowded city.
But do remember - this is a small area of the world, the world is full of kindness, nearly everywhere is at peace and we can't do much to stop what is going on but we can all wish for those concerned on both sides of this conflict to have the peace most of us have.
What Hamas did was awful. But you can respond ethically to unethical conduct. Ukraine showed that, they have responded to Russia's torture of their civilians by being constantly civilized in their treatment of the Russians.
And this is NOT WAR this is counterterrorism. It is a conflict between a terrorist group and Israel. -Hamas are very much focused on Israel.
Sadly the way Israel is responding also breaks all four principles of the law of armed conduct and there is a severe risk of a humanitarian crisis in the Gaza strip. There isn't any risk to other countries.
Hamas aren't global like Al Quaeda they are focused on Israel. They aren't even trying to create an Islamic caliphate like ISIS their aim is just to restore their original Palestinian homeland.
They differ from Fatah who are focused on a two-state solution and dialogue and who renounced violence long ago.
Hamas are of the view that all of Israel should be Muslim as it was before the Palestinians were expelled from part of it at the end of WWII to create the state of Israel. They want the Jews to be eradicated from Israel. Their charter is here. Though some of the Hamas want to reform their charter and they have offered a permanent truce with Israel a couple of times (on terms Israel couldn't accept). Details here: What role does religion play in Hamas' political behaviour? That is what makes them so very extreme.
Political background for Hamas here: What Is Hamas?
The other main party in Palestinian politics is Fatah.
Fatah are NOT TERRORIST, and are the moderate Palestian group agree with the Israeli government that Jews now have a right to live in Israel like them, that the past is the past and they are looking for a two-state solution. Fatah renounced violent action three decades ago (they were engaged in some violent action before then).
Meanwhile we also hear a lot about Hezbollah. This is not based in the Gaza strip or Israel. It is another terrorist group who are based in Lebanon to the north of Israel, where they are part of the government, with elections. Hezbollah fire rockets at Israel from time to time and are using the war to get attention of the world with minor actions. However they are concerned about retaliatory strikes from Israel and but don't want to do anything big that would lead to Israeli retaliation.
For how all this is terrorism and counterterrorism not war and other things including a section on Hezbollah see my previous debunk here:
WHY THERE IS SO MUCH CONTROVERSY OVER ISRAEL - CHANGED HANDSD MANY TIMES IN THE PAST
Israel / Palestine has changed hands many times. It was Jewish at the time of Jesus but under the rule of the Roman empire and taken over completely by Rome in the 1st century. In the 4th century it became Christian for many centuries in the Byzantine empire. Then in the 6th century it became Muslim when Muhammed started the new religion. It was under control of the Crusaders in the eleventh to twelfth centuries and the Mongols briefly and then under Muslim control again.
That’s an approximate summary of a very complex history. History of Palestine - Wikipedia
At the start of the modern period it was a Muslim country as part of the Ottoman empire. Palestine was put under UK administration in the modern period from 1922 to 1947. During that time there was large-scale Jewish immigration which increased naturally during WW2.
The UK couldn’t resolve the issues so turned the problem over to the UN which tried to divide it into a Jewish and Palestinian region, Israel and Palestine. But then in two wars in 1948, and 1967, Israel took over much of the Palestinian territory forcing the Palestinians out of the region that the UN had assigned to them.
. History of the Question of Palestine
So that then leads to the current situation.
WHAT HAMAS DID IS VERY SERIOUS AND VERY EXTREME WAR CRIMES - BUT ISRAEL SEEMS TO BE PLANNING ANOTHER WAR CRIME IN RESPONSE IF THEY DO GO ALL THE WAY TO CAUSING A HUMANITARIAN DISASTER IN GAZA STRIP AS COLLECTIVE PUNISHMENT UNDER GENEVA CONVENTION IV
In most countries including UK where I live, cutting off food, water, medicine, fuel is totally illegal.
Not a political view, all agree.
In the US and Israel it is legal.
However all UN countries ratified Geneva convention IV which makes it illegal to punish civilians for actions by the military or terrorists and that is the basis on which the Commission Of Inquiry on Human Rights at the UN says this blockade is illegal.
Please click to unblur these images. All my graphics are kid-safe. I write family friendly articles that should be fine even for young teens. No images of atrocities, nothing like that. It’s just Quora automatically blur all images for many war topics.
The Commission is gravely concerned with Israel’s latest attack on Gaza and Israel’s announcement of a complete siege on Gaza involving the withholding of water, food, electricity and fuel which will undoubtfully cost civilian lives and constitutes collective punishment.
From Geneva Convention IV ratified by ALL UN NATIONS
Article 33 - Individual responsibility, collective penalties, pillage, reprisals
No protected person may be punished for an offence he or she has not personally committed.
Collective penalties and likewise all measures of intimidation or of terrorism are prohibited.
Pillage is prohibited.
Reprisals against protected persons and their property are prohibited.
. article-33 of Convention (IV) relative to the Protection of Civilian Persons in Time of War. Geneva, 12 August 1949
What Hamas did of course were extreme war crimes. I assume most of you know about them.
They killed innocent Isreali civilians with no connection with the military. E.g. this professor at the the Institute for Low Temperature Physics and Engineering (ILTPE) in Israel was killed along with his wife by terrorists who broke into his home to kill him. For no reason except that he happened to be in a house they passed by.
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1712149220747100331
This was his research work:
https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Sergey-Gredeskul
They killed these party goers who had been dancing beneath a statue of the Buddha, Israelis who are inspired by the traditions of India and Tibet.
The terrorists surrounded all the exits to the festival and simply gunned down the party goers as they tried to run away and then entered and gunned down the ones left.
The Associated Press reviewed more than dozen videos taken during the massacre and interviewed survivors to reconstruct how the deadly attack unfolded. The party was held in a dusty field outside of Kibbutz Re’im, about 3.3 miles (5.3 kilometers) from the wall that separates Gaza from southern Israel.
“We were hiding and running, hiding and running, in an open field — the worst place you could possibly be in that situation,” said Arik Nani from Tel Aviv, who had gone to the party to celebrate his 26th birthday. “For a country where everyone in these circles knows everyone, this is a trauma like I could never imagine.”
While rockets rained down, revelers said, militants converged on the festival site while others waited near bomb shelters, gunning down people who were seeking refuge. Many of the militants, who arrived in trucks and on motorcycles, were wearing body armor and brandishing AK-47 assault rifles and rocket-propelled grenades.
Videos compiled by Israeli first responders and posted to the social media site Telegram show armed men plunging into the panicked crowd, mowing down fleeing revelers with bursts of automatic fire. Many victims were shot in the back as they ran.
Israeli communities on either side of the festival grounds also came under attack, with Hamas gunmen abducting dozens of men, women and children — including elderly and disabled people — and killing scores of others in Saturday’s unprecedented surprise attack.
They took hostages and they treated them horrifically. These are exceptionally serious war crimes.
But this also is a serious war crime what Israel are planning if they keep it up.
They are using missile strikes against a crowded city where people have no bomb shelters to hide in. It's the poor people not Hamas who will suffer most here.
That is serious, to use missile strikes against skyscrapers in a dense city, they can’t really do that in a precise way. But even more serious is to cut off the food, water, fuel, medicines, everything from 2.2 million people who already are under a blockade with not enough water in a place with severe shortages of water and with inadequate treatment facilities for waste and 90% of the population without access to clean drinking water.
Let’s hope wiser heads prevail and they find a way to avoid a humanitarian crisis for the citizens of Gaza strip.
Israel cut off fuel and electricity a couple of days ago and they have just cut off all the water supply to Gaza.
50% kids. 50% in poverty 90% without clean water. Bombed for no fault of their own.
https://twitter.com/mehdirhasan/status/1711190819799986216
IT IS ILLEGAL TO CUT OFF FOOD, WATER ETC TO CIVILIANS UNDER PROTOCOLS I AND II ADDED TO THE GENEVA CONVENTION IN 1977 BUT USA AND ISRAEL ARE NON SIGNATORIES - IT IS LEGAL TO CUT OFF SUPPLIES TO THE MILITARY AS UKRAINE OFTEN DOES
[Correction - in previous version of this post I said it was illegal for everyone. The sources I used didn’t make it clear that it was still legal for the USA and Israel but then I remembered carpet bombing is still legal for the USA and looked it up]
It is not against the international law of armed conduct to cut off supplies to an opposing army or terrorists. Ukraine do just as an integral part of their strategy it is mostly about cutting off the supplies of everything to the Russian soldiers.
It IS ILLEGAL and against the international law of armed conduct to cut off supplies to civilians.
It IS LEGAL to cut off supplies to military units.
To blockade a city or country and force its citizens into a humanitarian crisis is against all four principles of the law of armed conduct (which summarizes the complex international law).
It's required to
distinguish between civilians and combatants
loss must not be excessive in proportion to advantage
even injury to enemy combatants must be minimized
superfluous or unnecessary suffering is prohibited.
https://www.icrc.org/en/document/law-armed-conflict-essentials
In a little more detail:
(1) Distinction – to distinguish between the civilian population and combatants and between civilian objects and military objectives and direct operations only against military objectives.”
(2) Proportionality – Loss of life and damage to property incidental to attacks must not be excessive in relation to the military advantage
(3) Military Necessity – “…[E]very injury done to the enemy, even though permitted by the rules, is excusable only so far as it is absolutely necessary; everything beyond that is criminal.”
(4) Unnecessary Suffering – “It is prohibited to employ weapons, projectiles and materials and methods of warfare of a nature to cause superfluous injury or unnecessary suffering.”
. Online training on the Law of Armed Conflict for non-State actors
It may help to watch this video from the International Committee of the Red Cross to understand the legal background here, summarizing international treaties.
Video: Online training in the law of armed conduct
And read that page I just shared: Online training on the Law of Armed Conflict for non-State actors
What Israel is planning to do and has started to do sadly also seems to go against all four.
What Ukraine does, targeted strikes in Crimea, on Russian command posts and logistic hubs, on air fields and air defences and fighter jets throughout occupied Ukraine and Crimea and deep into Russia is legal. Nobody argues that it is illegal.
But what Israel does is illegal according to Geneva convention II from 1977.
However Israel hasn’t signed or ratified convention II, more on that in a moment.
There are many other solutions. The law is very clear. It doesn’t matter if you have no other options. It is still against the law but there just about always are other options and there are here.
Summary from the UN here. Transcript from 1:20 onwards.
Please click to unblur this image. Quora sadly blurs all images on many posts on military topics and you have to click to unblur them. Everything in this blog is kid safe. This just shows images of Ravina Shamdasani of OCHR stating the international law of armed conduct for seiges.
The imposition of sieges that endanger the lives of civilians by depriving them of goods essential for their survival is prohibited under International Humanitarian Law.
Any restriction on the movement of people and goods to implement a siege must be justified by military necessity or it may amount to collective punishment.
https://twitter.com/UNGeneva/status/1711763377373024739
You can watch it on Nitter here, without Twitter trending etc. UNGeneva/status/1711763377373024739
C
CUTTING OFF FOOD AND WATER AND CARPET BOMBING ARE ILLEGAL UNDER PROTOCOLS I AND II BUT ISRAEL AND USA NEVER RATIFIED IT
This is the summary by the international Red Cross.
Protocol I: 51 and 54 prohibits these attacks article-51
Protocol II extends protection to internal conflicts .International_Humanitarian_Law/IHL_SummaryGenevaConv.
Protocol I
Arts. 51, 54
It outlaws indiscriminate attacks on civilian populations and destruction of food, water and other materials needed for survival.
Protocol II
Arts. 10-11, Arts. 13-14, Art. 16
Attacks are forbidden on civilians and on “objects indispensable to civilian survival” such as crops, irrigation systems or drinking water sources, cultural objects, and places of worship.
Art. 18
Impartial humanitarian relief organizations, such as the ICRC, are to be permitted to continue their humanitarian services.
Dark green here for countries that ratified Protocol I:
A map showing the state parties and signatories of Protocol I of the Geneva Conventions (1977) which protects citizens from carpet bombing, cutting off food and water etc.
US signed indicating willingness to work towards it but didn't ratify.
Israel hasn't signed. Protocol I - Wikipedia
And for Convention II which extends civilian protection to internal conflict.
Geneva Conventions Protocol II Signatories
USA has signed indicating willingness to work towards ratifying it.
Israel hasn't signed. Protocol II - Wikipedia
Map from: File:Geneva Conventions Protocol II Signatories.svg - Wikimedia Commons]
So for Israel and the USA it IS LEGAL to do a siege of Gaza strip even if it leads to mass starvation and dehydration of 2.3 million, in order to target a few thousand Hamas who hide in the city in bunkers and tunnels.
This is ILLEGAL for nearly all other countries.
COMMISSION OF INQUIRY ON HUMAN RIGHTS SAYS IT IS COLLECTIVE PUNISHMENT - THIS IS ILLEGAL FOR ALL UN COUNTRIES UNDER THE 1949 GENEVA CONVENTION
Here is the Commission Of Inquiry on Human Rights at the UN:
https://twitter.com/UNGeneva/status/1711751815568527534
From their report:
The Commission has been collecting and preserving evidence of war crimes committed by all sides since 7 October 2023, when Hamas launched a complex attack on Israel and Israeli forces responded with airstrikes in Gaza.
Reports that armed groups from Gaza have gunned down hundreds of unarmed civilians are abhorrent and cannot be tolerated. Taking civilian hostages and using civilians as human shields are war crimes.
The Commission is gravely concerned with Israel’s latest attack on Gaza and Israel’s announcement of a complete siege on Gaza involving the withholding of water, food, electricity and fuel which will undoubtfully cost civilian lives and constitutes collective punishment.
The Commission is intent on ensuring legal accountability, including individual criminal and command responsibility. To that end, the Commission is committed to investigating current events and identifying those responsible for violations of international law on all sides, both those directly committing international crimes and those in positions of command responsibility.
They refer to article 33
Article 33 - Individual responsibility, collective penalties, pillage, reprisals
No protected person may be punished for an offence he or she has not personally committed. Collective penalties and likewise all measures of intimidation or of terrorism are prohibited.
Pillage is prohibited.
Reprisals against protected persons and their property are prohibited.
. article-33 of Convention (IV) relative to the Protection of Civilian Persons in Time of War. Geneva, 12 August 1949
MANY INNOCENT PEOPLE WILL DIE WITH THIS ACTION, 2.2 MILLION AT RISK IN AN AREA THAT HAS NO NATURAL WATER SUPPLY - THE MOTHER IN LAW OF THE SCOTTISH FIRST MINISTER HUMZA YOUSAF IS ONE OF THOSE TRAPPED IN GAZA STRIP
Many innocent people are going to die for sure. Israel so far seem to be intent on deliberately causing a humanitarian crisis with no real objective. There isn’t any real likelihood that the Hamas terrorists respond to this by giving up control on the Gaza strip.
I hope at least that Israel stop short of the worst effects of cutting off power, fuel, water and medicine to so many people for days on end and permit essential supplies for civilians.
First minister for Scotland on need to open humanitarian corridors to Gaza strip to let medical and humanitarian supplies in and to let Gazans and people from other nationalities in Gaza strip who want to leave to leave - currently there is no safe way out
https://twitter.com/HumzaYousaf/status/1711811617325756742
Humza Yousaf is the equivalent of our Scottish Prime Minister in the devolved government, succeeded Nicola Sturgeon.
He says here his mother in law is in the Gaza strip and has only one day of supplies.
She wants to leave but the only way out gets bombed @GinaDavidson on X
This is his letter to the UK foreign secretary James Cleverly to use the UK relationship with Israel to try to get the Israeli government to set up a humanitarian corridor.
Many others urging all parties to follow the law of armed conduct and immediately cease actions causing disproportionate death and injury of civilians and damage to civilian objects.
https://twitter.com/UNGeneva/status/1711701871495119228
But with Israel not bound by protocols I and II there are limits on what they can do here.
I hope these efforts at least lead to Israel agreeing a ceasefire to stop firing missiles at the Gaza strip for a day or two days to permit humanitarian corridors so civilians can start to leave. Of course 2.2. million can’t level in 2 days but the ones who most urgently need to leave can.
There is no legal route to persuade them but they can be persuaded through appealing to general humanitarian ethics.
There are many other ways ahead working with Fatah who renounce violence and have done so consistently for decades.
ROUGHLY HALF OF GAZA STRIP SUPPORT FATAH WHO CONSISTENTLY DENOUNCED VIOLENCE FOR DECADES
Roughly half of the population of Gaza strip support Fatah who have consistently advocated peaceful action and denounced violence by Hamas for decades.
Husam Zomlot, Head of the Palestinian Mission to the UK, Fatah representative in the UK was talking today about how six members of his family including a cousin and their family were killed in an Israeli air strike today (or yesterday), the kids are in intensive care and these are people who have advocated all along for non violence and are totally opposed to what Hamas are doing in all respects.
Here he is talking about it.
https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1711504505211097272
You can watch it on Nitter here BBCNewsnight/status/1711504505211097272
Of course it was not intended but you CAN'T do precision missile strikes into a highly populated area hitting skyscrapers in a city.
THIS WAR COULD EASILY LAST A MONTH OR MORE
I don't know what Israel's plans are but in 2008-9 they tried an incursion into the Gaza strip and the violence lasted for a month.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaza_War_(2008%E2%80%932009)
That was not in response to anything Hamas did but an action Israel started at the end of a ceasefire.
This time it is in response to a very serious terrorist attack by Hamas.
This is not likely to end soon. But it is likely a month or several months of great suffering for the ordinary folk of Gaza strip. Not so likely to be a month or several months of suffering for Israel.
ISRAEL IS PROTECTED BY ITS IRON DOME AND BOMB SHELTERS
Likely Hamas continue to try to fire rockets back at Israel and try incursions but the Israelis are warned now and their iron dome stops most of the rockets which are also untargeted and usually miss and they have enough warning time to get to bomb shelters except for those very close to the Gaza strip.
ORDINARY FOLK IN GAZA STRIP ARE NOT PROTECTED IN ONE OF THE DENSEST AREAS OF POPULATION IN THE WORLD
The concern now is for the hostages and for the ordinary folk of Gaza. There's a high chance that some of the hostages may be killed by the Israeli strikes on Gaza strip as it is highly unlikely the Israeli government know where they are being kept.
This bombing of skyscrapers in the middle of a big city CANNOT be precise.
You can read / watch on Nitter here: StephenFarryMP/status/1711413887583629773
https://twitter.com/StephenFarryMP/status/1711413887583629773
Text on graphic: Target skyscraper
Skyscraper falls to the right as it is demolished
Also destroyed to the ground.
You can't do controlled demolition of a skyscraper in a dense urban area with a missile strike.
Screenshot from this tweet video of a missile attack by president Netanyahu of Israel
Please click to unblur the image. It just shows a screenshot from the video of the missile attack from above with text superimposed. You don’t see any people, it’s too low resolution for that.
Quora automatically blurs all images on many military topics. The images in this blog are suitable for young kids.
It is simply not possible to demolish a skyscraper to the ground which is what Israel did here, in a dense urban area using a missile strike without serious risk of it falling sideways and accidentally demolishing nearby skyscrapers that may house civilians even if you have excellent intelligence that the skyscraper you hit is a military target. It is also impossible to control which way it will fall when demolishing it with a missile strike from above.
Any military action has to be proportionate and take account of the risk of civilian casualties. The Israelis are firing missiles at one of the densest areas of population in the world, 15,000 per square mile. 6,000 per square kilometer.
This is very heavy-handed counter-terrorism against terrorists, not an army fighting another army. Militarily Israel is vastly superior to Hamas.
This is Tymofiy Mylovanov, President, Kyiv School of Economics; Adviser, Zelensky administration
We must fight people killed becoming statistics.
HAMAS killed 1,200 Israelis. Gaza says 1,055 killed by Israel in response.
I wanna know how many of them are civilians, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s the overwhelming majority
Tens of thousands might die in the days ahead. It shouldn’t be happening, but it is.
It is so painful for me to see this from Ukraine. We have had so many civilians killed, but we also never responded by killing civilians in Russia.
I hope Israel will have restrain to protect civilians in Gaza in the days and weeks ahead. Because this is the right human thing to do
https://twitter.com/Mylovanov/status/1712102460947366140
RISK OF A HUMANITARIAN CRISIS
The issue is for civilians in the Gaza strip. They are headed for a humanitarian crisis in a couple of days if the blockade continues at its current state.
Their hospitals will run out of medicines and they won't have fuel to keep the electric equipment in hospitals going two days from now.
Also Israel has cut of food supplies and water and fuel. 90% of the population don't have access to clean water already for drinking. They don't have adequate treatment facilities for waste and sewage. And now they are without water. There are 2.2 million people there. There is one road that is sometimes open that leads to Egypt but how are 2.2 million people going to escape to Egypt?
QUOTE STARTS
A spokesperson with Gaza’s Health Ministry said on Monday that Israeli strikes have targeted hospitals and medical crews and called for a corridor to allow the delivery of medical supplies, depleted by Israel’s 16-year blockade, to the coastal enclave.
“We ask that a [humanitarian] corridor is opened to allow medical supplies to reach hospitals in the Gaza Strip,” the spokesperson said, warning that the situation in Gaza’s medical facilities is critical.
This road is currently partially closed because of air strikes.
The Rajah crossing at its most busy had 40,000 in a month.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rafah_Border_Crossing
THIS IS A CYCLE ISRAEL OFTEN GET INTO - START WITH NEARLY EVERYONE SYMPATHETIC - BUT THEN THEY RETALIATE SO HEAVILY AND INSTEAD OF ISRAELIS IT IS PALESTINIANS KILLED THAT FILL THE NEWS - WHICH TURNS THE VIEWS OF MANY AROUND
This is normal for Israel. Awful things happen, the world shows sympathy, they then go back so hard against the Palestinians that this turns the views of many around and many people who started off naturally very sympathetic are then opposed to Israel because of what they're doing to the Palestinians in retaliation. Not that they support Hamas. But support Fatah probably if they knew what Fatah say.
THIS IS PARTLY WHY WE GET SUCH POLARIZED GLOBAL POLITICS ON ISRAEL AND PALESTINE - MANY JUST WANT THE FIGHTING TO END - WHILE OTHERS SUPPORT ISRAEL ALL THE WAY THROUGH - BUT IT DOESN’T LEAD TO WAR OUTSIDE ISRAEL JUST VERY POLARIZED POLITICS
Then many people just want the violence to end on both sides and by then it’s mainly Israel is doing the violence not Hamas, and Israel loses its moral high ground for many people.
While others stand with Israel no matter what they do all the way through and this leads to very polarized world views on Israel. But it doesn't lead to war outside Israel just very uncomfortable politics.
HEZBOLLAH IN LEBANON NOT LIKELY TO GET INVOLVED IN A SERIOUS WAY BUT LIKELY TO DO MINOR ACTIONS TO WORRY THE ISRAELIS AND MAKE SURE THEY ARE TALKED ABOUT
Lebanon aren’t likely to get involved in a serious way.
There was an expert talking on the BBC today said Lebanon are unlikely to want to get involved in reality. They have enough problems as is without adding to them by attacking Israel and being attacked back. Sorry I didn’t record the bit where they said his name. But this is a transcript of his reply:
QUOTE Q. Could that draw Hezbollah and other militant factions into this.
QUOTE Hezbollah and the other regional players all had their own considerations. Hezbollah right now probably will not provoke a massive Israeli attack with Lebanon in the state that it is. They will be blamed in Lebanon for inviting terrible desolation on the Lebanese society and infrastructure and civilians. I don't think Hezbollah at this point will take that risk. But they certainly want you and I to be talking about this. And they certainly want Israel to be worried about this. And Israel has also reinforced its forces up in the north with the border with Hezbollah. And we are seeing this steady pricking by Hezbollah. We saw mortar bombing yesterday, today we saw an incursion and some more bombings. I think they are going to try to keep this low level of tension there to keep Israel worried and to try and distract Israel. But - to make these predictions is always very dangerous [he just means hard to see the future] - but I don't see Hezbollah provoking at this point another war on Israel's northern border. .
IRAN NOT LIKELY TO GET INVOLVED
Iran is not going to get involved.
Iran is on the opposite side of Israel, 1000 km away from its borders. Iran does fund Hamas and it provided machinery they use to make their primitive rockets and weapons. It does not provide weapons and it does not send its own soldiers there. Iran sponsors terrorism in many Middle East countries and doesn't fight in those countries. The only country they have fought in recently is Syria fighting against ISIS and on the side of President Bashar al-Assad. They do have some soldiers in Syria which is a neighbour of Israel but not an invasion army.
Iran has the second most powerful army in the Middle East but is way out of its league when compared with Israel. Israel is vastly superior to Iran, especially their fighter jets and their air defence systems which is what matters - and Iran wouldn't tangle with them militarily.
Iran is not going to get involved.
For background about how Iran supports Hamas with money as well as technology to make military supplies locally. It doesn't send weapons directly.
https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2023/10/07/hamas-terror-against-israel-sponsored-by-iran/
For background and history of Iran's sponsoring of terrorism and how it fights Israel indirectly in that way and why they are enemies when they used to be friends:
how-iran-and-israel-attack-each-other-while-avoiding-all-out-war
POSSIBLE WAY FORWARD IF ISRAEL CAN WORK WITH FATAH AND SYMPATHETIC NEIGHBOUR COUNTRIES TO OUST HAMAS AND INSTALL PEACE KEEPER - MUSLIM RATHER THAN JEWISH PEACEKEEPERS
It is possible to be ethical even when the people you are fighting are unethical.
There is a proposal for a way forward here. To work with Fatah, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and other countries opposed to Hamas to overthrow Hamas in the Gaza strip and install Muslim peace-keepers (far more likely to succeed than Jewish peace-keepers)
. Opinion | Hamas’s Control of Gaza Must End Now
A far right Israeli government would be less likely to do this but I wonder if there is any possibility now as the "unity government"??
If Israel do continue with this blockade all the way to a humanitarian crisis, then cutting off food, water and medicine from Gaza is as inhumane as Russia targeting Ukrainian infrastructure or its grain blockade. Violation of international law of armed conduct
. Gaza 'soon without fuel, medicine and food' - Israel authorities
COULD THE UNITY GOVERNMENT HELP?
The current far right government is so weak that they felt they needed to bring the other parties together in a “Unity government”. The more liberal parties in Israel are very opposed on many issues in politics but they are coming together to deal with an emergency - could this lead to a less heavy handed approach and more possibility of working with Fatah?
Let’s hope wiser heads prevail.
SECRETARY BLINKEN - NOT A WAR BETWEEN COUNTRIES OR ARMIES - TERRORISM AND COUNTERTERRORISM
This is NOT a war in Israel. It is terrorism and counterterrorism and if Israel does invade Gaza strip then it has no defences to speak of and many innocent civilians will be killed.
There have been numerous wars in the Middle East and many involving Israel and many peace treaties and we don't get world emperors imposing peace on the world and forcing us to worship them every time there is a war and then peace or ever.
Secretary Anthony Blinken said yesterday that it is not a war between countries and armies but a terrorist attack. He said
QUOTE "This is the worst attack on Israel since the Yom Kippur War in 1973 – 50 years ago. But there’s a big difference. That was a conventional war between countries, between armies. This, a massive terrorist attack on Israeli civilian
...
QUOTE What happened over the last 24 hours doesn’t go to state-to-state conflict, where Jake is exactly right – it’s diminished. This goes to a terrorist attack by a terrorist organization."
That quote is from here:
https://www.state.gov/secretary-antony-j-blinken-with-dana-bash-of-cnns-state-of-the-union-3/
I quote from him in my debunk. Troubles in Israel are terrorism - Gaza strip doesn't have an army - no army supports them - conflict and counterterrorism - only a metaphorical war - Hamas are terrorist - Fatah renounces violence
See my previous debunk:
Gaza strip: refugees from Israel, no army, not supported by any army
Israel: Most advanced army in the Middle East by far.Fighter jets, tanks, everything a modern army has.
Graphic from: File:Gaza Strip map2.svg - Wikimedia Commons
WHAT WE CAN DO AT A PERSONAL LEVEL - RELATE TO KINDNESS IN THE WORLD
It does no-one any good to spiral into despair or hopelessness.
The world as a whole is largely at peace. Most of the people who read my blog are not in countries at war. They are experiencing peace. Even most people in Ukraine are experiencing peace. There is beauty and kindness everywhere.
If you see a horrible world, this is a perception that's mainly shaped by the amount of time people spend online nowadays. It depends on what you do online but if you spend it watching scary videos and political posts and media stories the world can seem a very dangerous place.
If you spend it on peaceful activities connecting with others who are doing the same it can seem very peaceful. It may help to join groups online that are not involved in discussing politics at all, have a no politics rule?
Any interest you have there is likely to be an online group somewhere devoted to it, and if they have a no politics / no news rule then that's an online environment without any of this.
Or connecting to your real world life more. Finding activities you can do in real life that connect to the peace around you. Unless living in Ukraine or in the Gaza strip or neighbouring regions of Israel your life is not at risk from any war. Even in Ukraine over most of the country they no longer need to even use bomb shelters much because their air defence is so effective unless close to the front lines.
But most of the world is at peace. So if you relate to the real world rather than the media or online world then nearly everywhere you find people at peace who are not injuring harming or killing each other in war or damaging each others' property or the civilian infrastructure with missiles.
If you ground yourself in what is around you you can find kindness everywhere.
See my blog post:
BLOG: Looking for kindness - Far healthier than looking for hostility especially if easily scared
EXAMPLE OF A UKRAINIAN PHOTOGRAPHER SHOWING THE BEAUTY OF HER COUNTRY AND AREAS AT PEACE IN THE MIDDLE OF A WAR
Most of Ukraine is far from the fighting. They still get the long range missile strikes but most get shot down and especially Kyiv is very well protected by the Patriot air defences now.
I discovered a Ukrainian photographer who does photos and videos from Ukraine, showing the beauty of her country in the middle of the war.
https://twitter.com/strategywoman/status/1711444619026649550
Here is the letter she links to in that tweet
https://www.buymeacoffee.com/warcoffee/letters-ukraine-sofiyivka-park-uman
You can look at her tweets on Nitter here without all the clutter of the Twitter Trending etc which can scare people, and just see her photos and text