No there was never any risk of a world war or Putin taking over Ukraine - hopefully this spin stops soon now that Congress is set to pass the Ukraine bill with near certainty
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We have been getting a fair bit of FALSE spin and hyperbole about world war today which is scaring vulnerable people. This fact check is just to help scared people and not for any political or military reason. There is nothing to be scared of, no real risk of a world war and there isn’t any real possibility of Russia taking over all of Ukraine, never mind threatening Poland or the Balkan states south of Ukraine.
The Ukraine war is very local to Ukraine. There is no way that Russia is going to take over all of Ukraine, and there is no way that Russia is going to attack NATO, Putin has withdrawn soldiers from the very long border with NATO rather than reinforced it and can't even support the Armenians in Azerbaijan, that all makes no sense.
All the stories about WW3 were to get the Ukraine bill passed in Congress. Now that it is pretty certain to be approved I've not seen any new stories like that and once it is approved expected it to stop.
This spin may continue until Saturday when the House votes for the Ukraine bill, which will let the US support Ukraine with $60 billion of funding in 2024. It may continue for a while later. None of it is anything to be scared of.
By spin I mean
Arguing to a conclusion the author knows to be false or weakly supported
Doing this by leaving out all the things that show that the conclusion is invalid
Only presenting things that seem to support the conclusion
Spin can sometimes be hard to detect if you are unfamiliar with the topic because you don’t know what is being left out. But if you are familiar with it then it is very obvious.
I am writing this debunk ONLY to help vulnerable people who get scared by this spin and hyperbole, not for any political or military reasons.
There is a reason why many journalists, politicians and military experts want Congress to pass this bill but it is not because they really believe that Russia could take over all of Ukraine. AT last not the ones who are following the war closely.
This bill WILL make a big difference to the Ukrainian army in the war because
it is more than double the amount Europe has promised so far this year,
the US has vast stockpiles of equipment that it can get to Ukraine quickly while Europe will have to make most of it which takes much longer, e.g. a year to 18 months to increase its yearly supply of shells to Ukraine.
There was NEVER ANY RISK OF UKRAINE’S FRONT LINE COLLAPSING. I know journalists keep saying this, but they have lots of fortifications, well-trained soldiers and enough shells to keep the Russians in check, they are even advancing from time to time in places along the front line if you follow the war closely. There is a temporary shortage of shells but this will be fixed in the near future with or without the Ukraine bill.
However, it is now pretty certain the bill is going to be passed. Mike Johnson made a talk explaining how he feels he has to pass the bill even if he loses his job as speaker, and he also made the decision after going to visit Trump in Mar e Lago. Trump later tweeted a Truth Social post that is interpreted by everyone as meaning he is no longer opposed to the bill.
. Donald Trump says Ukraine’s survival is important to US
It is very easy to detect this spin if you are following the war closely. To help you to detect it, here is what has happened at the front line in Ukraine since January, it is pretty obvious is it not that Karkhiv city is not at risk? At the rate that Russia is advancing it would be decades before they are even able to encircle it again as they did through to the fall in 2022. But this won’t continue as I’ll explain, Russia is only continuing to advance because of a temporary shortage that would be fixed in weeks anyway even without the Ukraine bill.
Text on graphic: Animation starting January 31. Russia is NOT about to take Karkhiv or any big city in Ukraine - it is just spin
I will go into this in more detail later in this debunk. It would be understandable to think - okay - Russia hasn’t done much yet but surely it might “break through” and go charging across Ukraine and quickly capture lots of large cities even though at present it is only capturing small villages and travelling slowly?
But if you look at the analyses closely, NOBODY is saying this can happen. The ISW is very clear. Russia at most can make very small advances in Donetsk. It is not likely to even cross the Oskill River which is roughly along its front line between the occupied territory and Kakrhiv oblast and nobody has ever suggested they’d be able to cross back over the Dnipro river to retake Kherson city.
So, nobody has ever said this can happen if you read the serious analysis
THE FALSE ARGUMENT THAT PERSUADED MIKE JOHNSON - HE BROUGHT HE BILL TO THE FLOOR BECAUSE HE BELIEVES FALSELY THAT POLAND AND THE BALKANS ARE AT RISK AND THAT AMERICAN TROOPS MIGHT HAVE TO HELP EUROPE FIGHT AGAINST RUSSIA AFTER LOSING UKRAINE
Once again - just to say this is not political. I am not doing this to undermine this successful attempt to get Mike Johnson to get the bill to the floor.
But the false reasoning used scares the people I fact check for and this is the only reason for writing this fact check.
The argument for weeks now has been that if the US doesn’t vote for this bill that Russia will march through Ukraine and then attack other countries like Poland.
As you can see from that map I shared there is no real risk of this. But Mike Johnson believed it and gave it as his main reason for bringing the bill to the floor:
“This is a critical time right now, a critical time on the world stage,”
…
"I could make a selfish decision and do something that's different but I'm doing here what I believe to be the right thing,"
"I think that Vladimir Putin would continue marching through Europe if he were allowed. I think he might go to the Balkans next. I think he might have a showdown with Poland or one of our NATO allies.
"To put it bluntly I would rather send bullets to Ukraine than American boys. My son is going to begin in the Naval academy this fall. This is a live fire exercise for me as it is for so many American families.
https://www.newsweek.com/mike-johnson-impassioned-ukraine-speech-defies-maga-1891569
WHY DOES NOBODY ELSE SAY THAT THIS IS SPIN AND CALIT OUT? BECAUSE JUST ABOUT EVERYONE WANTS THE BILL TO PASS EVEN THE MAJORITY IN THE USA
All this coordinated spin is for social reasons - it isn’t any big conspiracy. It is just the chimpanzee like way of behaving where people say and do things taking the cue from others around them and because the effects of this spin seems to be having good effects. Autistic people often find this hard to understand. For the difference see my:
We have many groups of people all with reasons to use spin and nobody challenging it.
most people in Europe and the majority in the USA and the majority in the House and in the Senate want them to pass this bill
only some in the far right are opposed.
most in the media including Republicans want them to pass it
also all the military strategy analysts and generals that I've seen talk about it want it to pass.
You might wonder, what about Putin and Russia. Why don’t they say the spin is false? After all Putin doesn’t want the bill to pass.
Putin is a very short-term thinker, he has often done things that strengthen NATO like the way he more or less forced Finland and Sweden to join NATO when they would have stayed out of it if he hadn’t threatened them
Putin is tied up in internal politics in Russia and the Kremlin and reinforcing propaganda
It bolsters Putin’s image of himself as a leader leading an army marching to victory across Ukraine
So - even though it is false and Putin knows he can’t really go charging across Ukraine he would want it to be true and amplifies this message he hears from the rest of the world. Even though the result of him doing that is to add to the reasons for the US to pass the bill and so to make Ukraine’s defence against Russia stronger.
This is why you see so much spin and hyperbole all pointing in the same direction, claiming that it has to pass to save Ukraine as a way to put huge pressure on the House Republicans to pass it.
Russia ironically is adding to this pressure for propaganda reasons. They do it to persuade their own people that Russia is winning to keep support for the war.
RUSSIA IS NOT REALLY WINNING -IT IS A SLOW ADVANCE DUE TO THE WINTER SEASON AND THEN A TEMPORARY SHORTFALL OF SHELLS AND AIR INTERCEPTORS
In reality Russia is not winning, it's just a very slow very small temporary advance in Eastern Donbas of no strategic significance in the larger picture.
Ukraine has enough shells and has built enough fortifications to keep the Russians in place and prevent them advancing far, and they get their new shells from Czechia in June and they are getting a new Patriot system from Germany soon, and Europe is looking into how to get new air interceptors and Patriots to them.
It will help a lot if this bill passes but it doesn't mean Ukraine will lose if it fails. It will take Europe 12 to 18 months to ramp up shell production which it is already doing, meanwhile Czechia found 1.5 million shells which European countries are buying to fill the gap in production and there is a constant production already of course including Ukraine itself making its own shells.
Russia is advancing but slowly. At this rate it would take Russia 51 years to re-occupy the territory it lost in the Ukrainian counteroffensives in 2022 from my debunk of the ISW post at the end of this debunk.
It's not going to do much in 2 more months.
Europe is stepping up its own production to the max, the problem is that shells require a year ato 18 months to ramp up production at all stages of the process. By the end of 2024 it will supply 1.4 to 1.7 million shells a year, and by early 2026, 2 million shells. The Czechia shells are to deal with the shortfall until then. But the US could meet that shortfall quickly from its stocks.
Details here:
BLOG: Ukraine’s shell supply problems are on their way to being completely solved now
. Ukraine’s shell supply problems are on their way to being completely solved now
air interceptors also stop the glide bombs
Text on graphic: This inexpensive “UMPK” kit transforms a Russian dumb bomb into a precision weapon.
But Russia has to drop them from a great height close to the front line. - Ukraine can force the fighter jets so far back the glide bombs can’t reach them - but only with Patriot
Image: File:FAB-1500 bomb with UMPK kit.jpg - Wikimedia Commons
For the air interceptors - these protect civilians but also are of military significance because they are how Ukraine has kept away the Russian fighter jets who can now use glide bombs which they let go from a great height at a great distance from Ukraine's front line. The Russian UMPK is similar to the US JDAM which Israel uses in Gaza Strip to convert its dumb bombs into glide bombs that hit more precise targets to within meters.
They can drop rather hefty bombs this way and these have caused many problems for Ukraine since it started to run low on Patriot air interceptors a few weeks back.
The Patriot air interceptors can stop the fighter jets as they can shoot them down at that distance but Ukraine needs more interceptors and patriots. Europe is looking into what it can do to step up.
Ukraine also needs them to protect its power stations which is more important for winter 2024-5 hopefully it is sorted out long before then.
Europe is doing a lot but the US will make a big difference with its bill which will turn it around quickly. With the US, Ukraine could be doing major counteroffensives this year, with Europe alone it might postpone most of those to 2025.
The US, then the president has $4.2 billion in presidential drawdown capability which he can use if needs be if the bills don't go through. But the $61 billion will make a big difference.
But right now it is looking near certainty that the Ukraine bill passes, with Mike Johnson releasing separate bills including the Ukraine funding in a move that will be opposed by the far right in his party.
The Democrats support the bills. The Senate will surely pass them since it just breaks up the bill they already approved into several pieces to be voted on separately with minor changes. And Bidne has said he will sign it too.
They will vote for them on Saturday. This means Ukraine aid will be voted on in the House and if the Democrats support it then it likely gets approved by the Senate which likely meets on Sunday and then signed into law by Biden on Monday. The original bill passed by 70 votes in the Senate and it needs 60 votes because of the filibuster rule. So it seems a sure thing once it gets to the Senate.
This is the original announcement before those details emerged.
House Republicans release aid bills for Israel and Ukraine, eyeing weekend House votes
Ukraine has a lot of funding from Europe but US was its top supplier and US has some weapon systems that Europe doesn't have like the ATACMS and large numbers of other systems like the Patriot air defences and Patriot air interceptors and large numbers of munitions for the Ukrainian artillery.
Also $60 billion is more than double the total funding Ukraine has from Europe so far this year.
The thing is that the US spends a far higher % of its GDP on military defence than any other of the major countries and it is also a very wealthy country. It spends 3.5% of its GDP on defence.
Ukraine is at the top, over a third of its GDP on defence (33.5%) and Russia has a higher % than USA, 4.1% but of a much lower GDP similar to the GDP of Italy.
Europe is doing a lot and has a huge GDP far more than Russia and is ramping up, but the US could make a big difference with its bill which would turn it around quickly. With the US, Ukraine could be doing major counteroffensives this year, with Europe alone it might postpone most of those to 2025.
For the many things Europe does:
So it will make quite a difference to Ukraine this year if it passes.
Germany has given Ukraine another of its patriot air defences. This will make up for the one they lost in March when Russia scored a lucky hit on a convoy when it was travelling and not able to defend itself.
The Patriot is very effective at shooting down Russian missiles and protecting Ukrainian civilians
.
https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1779222802228187351
Ukraine lost one of its Patriot air defence systems on March 12 when it was being transported as part of a convoy. The system can't defend itself when it's being transported. Russia got a lucky hit on it, they didn't know it was a Patriot and thought it was an S-300 air defence system.
. Russia Claims Major Hit: Patriot Air-Defense System Destroyed in Ukraine
Earlier news:
QUOTE Kuleba says his team has identified more the one hundred available Patriot systems that could potentially be handed over to Ukraine. Officials in Kyiv say they need 26 systems in order to provide comprehensive cover for the entire country. The immediate objective is to acquire seven Patriot systems to guard key targets against Russian airstrikes. EU partners including Germany have vowed to assist in the search for Patriot systems, but there have yet to be any breakthroughs.
. Ukraine pleads for Patriot air defense systems as Russia destroys power grid
SHORT DEBUNK: No there is no way that Russia could take Karkhiv in 2024 - very misleading BBC article
Text on graphic: Russia is stuck here (Kupiansk). How is it supposed to get here (Karkhiv)? Never mind encircle and capture a city of 1.4 million.
According to the ISW, the main cities at risk are to advance from Bakhmut to Chasiv Yar, population 12,250 in peace-time, Kostiantynivka population 67,650 and Druzhkivka 53,977
The second map shows how small an area this is
TEXT ON GRAPHIC: The very tiny area at risk from Russia's advance in Donetsk: that they might advance from Bakhmut to Chasiv Yar, population 12,250 in peace-time, Kostiantynivka population 67,650 and Druzhkivka 53,977
Now compare this with the ISW op. ed. published just before speaker Mike Johnson made his decision to bring the bills to the floor:
. Institute for the Study of War
This is another activist ISW article with a lot of spin and likely, by the timing intended to persuade the Republicans to vote for the Ukraine bill. It is easy to detect the spin for anyone who has been following the war closely.
It is an impossible scenario. They have taken a fantasy idea of a stable, occupied Ukraine under Russian control. Russia is not advancing fast at all. The only reasoning they give in favour of such a rapid advance is that Russia was able to take 360 square kilometers in three months fighting - that is along a front line of 1000 km or so.
But Ukraine is a huge country. Russia rapidly took 119,000 km2 of Ukraine in early 2022 by surprise, and when Ukraine had very little by way of NATO weapons. With help from the US with its HiMARS and other NATO technology, Ukraine liberated 74,443 km2 of occupied Ukraine in 2022.
See the graphic here Institute for the Study of War
Text on graphic: Russia's front line has hardly changed since Nov 12, 2022.
Fall 2022, after battle of Kyiv then three more major Ukraine counteroffensives.
This is where Russia seems most vulnerable in 2024 - arrow pointing at Kherson oblast.
Crimea is very vulnerable if Kherson oblast is liberated.
Ukraine didn't do a counteroffensive in 2023, due to Russia's one act of strategic brilliance - the ultra wide minefields constructed in winter 2022-3.
At its slow rate of advance from January to April 2024, if Russia could keep occupying 360 km2 every 3 months, or 1440 km2 a year, it would take it 74,443/1440 = 51 years to recapture the area it lost in 2022. The ISW can do this maths as easily as we can which shows that it is spin. They know this is a bulls**t argument but still use it.
But Russia is not likely to be able to keep going any more.
The area comparison they use is misleading and they have to know this too. Russia liberated open countryside with a few villages and very small cities not a city.
I expect the 360 square kiloemters figure is accurate, since it's the ISW. But this is an area the size of Detroit but they only captured small cities of up to 32,000 for Avdiivka. Detroit has a population of 620,376.
In the entire war Russia has never captured any city quite as big as Detroit. Mariupol was less than half a million and Kherson city a bit over a quarter of a million. They lost Kherson city of course, still control Mariupol but they haven't captured any city larger than a few tens of thousands since spring 2022.
Also that's 360 square kilometers along a front line 1000 km long but most of it in Donetsk region where it is just filling in gaps and of no larger strategic significance.
Then they don't say anything about how Europe is stepping up to fill the gap in Ukraine's shortfalls. Even though they did an article on just that topic not tht long ago. See my:
They don't mention the many issues Russia faces.
To put their scenario in perspective with an absurd impossible scenario, imagine that an invading army from Canada were advancing south along Lake Michigan and after four months of fighting and losing several hundred tanks they managed to take the small city of Manitowok, population 35,000. Are Milwaukee (population 569,000) or Chicago (population 2.7 million) at risk? NONSENSE. Simlarly: Ukraine has no risk to Kherson city, Karkhiv or Kyiv.
Is it time to consider a scenario where the invading army controls several times the area of Michigan state?
No. Of course not.
This scenario is like that. Plus Russia would have to be out of its mind to attack NATO which has far far better technology than Ukraine even now. They'd have lost the capacity for coherent thought to do that. And if Russia does "win" this war with it occupying any of Ukraine it will have a massive job rebuilding all the industry it destroyed before it is much use to it. But with constant attacks by dissidents with near certainty.
But Russia can't do that. This is a temporary setback for Ukraine evne if the US bill never comes through, Europe is stepping up in a big way.
TEXT ON GRAPHIC: Imagine that after four months of fighting an army has finally captured Manitowok, population 35,000 losing between 19,000 and 47,000 soldiers and between 300 and 364 tanks to do this.
Their opponents retreated to the edge of Manitowok to prepared fortifications so they are not expected to go any further.
Are Milwaukee (population 569,000) or Chicago (population 2.7 million) at risk? NONSENSE. Simlarly: no risk to Kherson city, Karkhiv or Kyiv
Chicago has a population similar to Kyiv
Milwaukee has half the population of Kharkiv, double Kherson
Manitowoc has a population similar to Avdiivka
Russia advances in winter because it is the only army daft enough to try in the ultra cold very wet winter mud season.
From Wikipedia:
QUOTE Before 2022, Russia occupied 42,000 km2 (16,000 sq mi) of Ukrainian territory (Crimea, and parts of Donetsk and Luhansk), and occupied an additional 119,000 km2 (46,000 sq mi) after its full-scale invasion by March 2022, a total of 161,000 km2 (62,000 sq mi) or almost 27% of Ukraine's territory.[7] By 11 November 2022, the Institute for the Study of War calculated that Ukrainian forces had liberated an area of 74,443 km2 (28,743 sq mi) from Russian occupation,[8] leaving Russia with control of about 18% of Ukraine's territory.[9] During the entire 2023, the Russian forces only captured 518 km2 (200 sq mi) of Ukrainian territory, despite huge losses on the battlefield.[10]
COMMENTS DISABLED FOR FIRST FEW HOURS
This is because there are click bait stories in the red top tabloids FALSELY shouting world war as they do many times a year and if I leave this open to comments it may get uninformed comments by people who haven’t read it and just seen the title of the post.
I write this to help scared people and they are easily triggered by such comments.
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