No Trump did NOT mean that he could stop elections when he said Christians don’t need to vote in 2028, he was just doing bizarre ad libbing like he often does
a president CAN’T change election date and even Congress can’t change inauguration date
A US president can't stop elections. Indeed a US president has no control over the election date unlike many other presidents or prime ministers.
This is the article I’m debunking:
. Trump warns of vote rigging, asks Christians to vote "just this time"
The Hill put it like this:
Trump’s remarks point to the need for both parties to get their most fervent supporters to the polls in what is expected to a close election that may be determined by turnout.
It goes on to say
The remarks were also criticized on left, where many raised questions about what steps Trump might take to affect the electoral process if he wins a second term.
However there are no steps that Trump can take that can change the election date as we’ll see.
The background here is that Trump says very odd and sometimes nonsensical things when ad libbing so I wouldn't pay much attention to it. For instance while still president on 4th July 2019, when his teleprompter conked out in rain, while talking about the American war of independence from Britain in the late eighteenth century, Trump said
"Our army manned the air, it rammed the ramparts, it took over the airports, it did everything it had to do."
Text on graphic: Trump is known for his bizarre impromptu ad libs
Donald Trump ad-libbing:”[in 1775] Our army manned the air, it rammed the ramparts, it took over the airports, it did everything it had to do.”
Background image combines:
. File:The Battle of Lexington.jpg - Wikimedia Commons
. File:Spitfire - Season Premiere Airshow 2018 (cropped).jpg - Wikimedia Commons
.jpg){kind=link}
This is just one of numerous ad lib gaffes.
He does have written speeches that he follows but from time to time he departs from the script and the teleprompter is stopped until he gets back on track again.
So you shouldn’t analyse his ad libs word for word.
He isn’t the only one to do bizarre ad libs. Politicians have to talk so many hours a day it’s not surprising they sometimes say bizarre things. Boris Johnson is famous for his ad libs about Peppa Pig World ad lib :).
I expect he was trying to compensate for when he said on Fox and Friends that "we don't need the votes". Here is what he said to Fox and Friends:
TRANSCRIPT We have lawyers at every poll booth. In fact my instruction. We don't need the votes. I am in Florida now and we drove to another house and every house has a Trump Vance sign on it, every single house. There is not a house that we passed that doesn't. We have the votes. What we have to do.
... It's amazing the spirit. And I say this, we have two elections. The first election we did great. The second election we did much better than the first election. But this election has more spirit than I've ever seen ever before. That's because they've seen how bad these people are at government ...
There are
many Americans who will turn out and vote no matter what happens.
many other Americans who sometimes vote, sometimes not, depending on whether they remember, how busy they are, what else they are doing that day etc.
All this is for that second group. Oh Fox and Friends he told those people not to bother because he believes that nearly everyone will vote Republican.
So now he is backtracking and saying that just this one time in 2024 some people will still vote Democrat despite his claim that everyone will vote Republican but that in the future he claims FALSELY AS HYPERBOLE that it won't be necessary to vote.
When reading this, remember TRUMP IS NOT READING THIS FROM A TELEPROMPTER. There is NO WAY that even Trump would write that down and think this is a good thing to say.
TRANSCRIPT STARTS
And again, Christians get out and vote! Just this time.
You won't have to do it any more. Four more years you know what, it will be fixed, it will be fine, you won't have to vote any more, my beautiful Christians. I love you Christians. I'm a Christian, I love you, get out, you got to get out and vote.
In four years you don't have to vote again [i.e. unless you do anyway]. We will have it fixed so good you're not gonna have to vote.
TRUMP’S OWN EXPLANATION - HE SAYS WHAT HE MEANT IS THAT CHRISTIANS TYPICALLY DO NOT VOTE AND THAT THIS ONE TIME TRUMP NEEDS CHRISTIANS TO GET OUT AND VOTE
This doesn’t make sense since most Americans are Christian. But it is how Trump himself explains his own remarks
I said typically christians do not vote.
Why it is, I don't know, you are rebellious? Something is going on.
Don't worry about the future.
You have to vote on November 5th.
After that, you don't have to worry about voting anymore.
I don't care because the country will be fixed and we won't need your vote anymore because frankly we will have such love if you don't want to vote anymore that's okay.
EITHER WAY HE IS KICKING HIS FALSE HYPERBOLE CLAIM FROM FOX AND FRIENDS DOWN TO 2028 AS THE YEAR WHEN AMERICANS WON’T NEED TO TURN OUT TO VOTE ANY MORE IF THEY TYPICALLY DON’T VOTE
I.e. he kicks his FALSE HYPERBOLE CLAIM down to 2028, the claim on Fox & Friends that everyone will vote Republican.
That makes it a problem for some other president as it won’t be him seeking election in 2028 and everyone will have forgotten about it anyway.
So what changed? Before he expected a landslide and thought his followers didn’t need even to turn out to vote. Then he suddenly decided his people need to get out to vote.
What changed?
Two things new polls, and the potential for Kamala Harris to choose a much better running mate for her than his choice Vance is for him.
FOX NEWS SAYING THAT POLLING HAS SHIFTED IN FAVOUR OF HARRIS
He gets most of his news from Fox News and Fox News ran a story last night saying the polling has shifted in favour of Harris based on a poll they conducted.
That may be why he has changed his tone.
FOX NEWS SAYS THAT KAMALA HARRIS WILL GET A VERY BIG BOOST IF SHE CHOOSES JOSH SHAPIRO AS RUNING MATE
Fox News is strongly right leaning. They say that if Kamala Harris chooses Josh Shapiro as running mate she will likely get a big boost in her polling.
It found numbers very similar to the ones in 2020 when Biden won and they said that the numbers of double haters who don't wan't vote for either Democrat or Republican are reducing and it is breaking more in the direction of Harris than Trump.
QUOTE STARTS
"While the horserace remains deadlocked, there’s more under the surface to suggest Democrats are in a significantly better position in Pennsylvania than in April," says Democrat Chris Anderson, who conducts Fox News surveys with Republican Daron Shaw. "The Democrat at the top of the ticket is now more favorable than Trump and Democrats are more motivated, and the key group of double haters are breaking more heavily for Harris than they were for Biden."
Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, who is widely considered to be on Harris’ shortlist of potential running mates, receives a 61% favorable rating -- the highest of any individual tested. His rating has improved by 10 points since July 2022 when he was campaigning for governor.
The survey also finds he does better than Harris in a hypothetical matchup against Trump: Shapiro 54% to Trump’s 44%, for a 10-point lead. That is outside the margin of error.
There are many other possible choices of running mate. Several sources are saying the list is likely now down to three possibilities,
Shapiro is a popular governor of arguably the most important swing state, and a skilled orator who has performed strongly in rural areas, a weakness for Democrats.
Walz, a former teacher and Army National Guard member, could dash Trump’s hopes of making Minnesota competitive and mirror Vance’s Midwestern appeal.
Kelly’s state doubles as a battleground and border area and he has broken with Biden on immigration issues. His wife, Gabrielle Giffords, is a former congresswoman who became a gun-control activist after surviving an assassination attempt in 2011.
. Kamala Harris has these 3 men on her short list of potential running mates
The BBC says of these three:
QUOTE STARTS
Josh Shapiro, Pennsylvania Governor
The charismatic governor of Pennsylvania, a state that many think is essentially must-win for Harris, has oratory skills which have drawn comparisons with Barack Obama.
He would be the first Jewish vice-president and has peeled off Republican voters in his home state.
Shapiro has seen high approval ratings since he was elected in 2022 in a swing state Trump narrowly carried in 2016.
He made national headlines last year after quickly rebuilding a collapsed bridge on a crucial Philadelphia highway - a major political victory for a first-term governor.
The speedy repair was hailed by many as the perfect infrastructure talking point for a potential 2028 presidential candidate.
Anthony Zurcher: He could help lock down an important - perhaps the most important - state for Ms Harris.
But his outspoken support of Israel during the Gaza War and his criticism of student protests in his state might open up divisions within the Democratic Party that the vice-president is keen to avoid.
Mark Kelly, Arizona Senator
The former astronaut and Navy combat pilot has an all-action edge, while his strong border stance and occasional criticisms of the Biden administration could be eye-catching for floating conservative voters.
His Democratic superstar wife Gabby Giffords, who was shot in a mass shooting, gives him a personal story as strong as his CV.
The former House congresswoman was seriously wounded and has become one of the leading voices on gun safety laws. With gun violence a major campaign issue for Democrats, Mr Kelly’s personal story could resonate with voters.
AZ: Mark Kelly is from a state that Democrats would love to keep in their column.
His selection would create challenges down the road, however, as Democrats would have to gear up for another pivotal Senate campaign to hold his seat in a special election in 2026.
Tim Walz, Minnesota Governor
The 60-year-old served 12 years as a US congressman before his successful 2018 run to lead the state.
His performance as governor was thrust into the national spotlight when he sent in the National Guard to deal with mass protests after the death of George Floyd.
He himself had a 20-year service in the National Guard before his political career, a time when he also taught at a high school and worked as an assistant football coach.
AZ: Minnesota may not be a top-line battleground state, but Tim Walz has the small-town Midwestern sensibilities to give him some cross-border appeal.
While he governs from the left, his plainspoken manner and religious convictions give him a moderate sheen.
. Who could Kamala Harris pick as her vice-presidential candidate?
I mentioned Kelly before, Mark Kelly is twin of Scott Kelly, both retired astronauts, took part in the twin experiment to compare what happens with a twin on the ground compared to a twin in space after nearly a year of weightlessness in space. Space geeks may remember that Mark Kelly sent a gorilla suit up to the ISS to Scott Kelly which he used to prank other astronauts :). He is a very middle of the road moderate Republican.
He is only 2 years into his six year term as senator and they would need to find a new candidate for Arizona quickly who would need to have a decent chance of retaining the seat. On the other hand however, as a senator he has had two years to get used to the US Senate and the other senators and one of the main jobs of a vice President is to liaise with the US Senate.
Anyway we should find out soon by 7th August probably before.
THE HILL DOESN’T TAKE TRUMP’S REMARKS LITERALLY AND SAYS BOTH SIDES NOW SEE THE IMPORTANCE OF GETTING THEIR SUPPORTERS TO VOTE
The Hill discussing Trump's remarks doesn't take them literally and says it shows that both sides see the importance of getting their most enthusiastic supporters to the polls.
QUOTE STARTS
Trump’s remarks point to the need for both parties to get their most fervent supporters to the polls in what is expected to a close election that may be determined by turnout.
The race has rapidly changed with Vice President Harris’s sudden arrival as the likely Democratic presidential nominee. President Biden bowed to mounting pressure and dropped out of the race on Sunday, endorsing Harris.
Since then, Democrats have rallied around the vice president and there have been signs of surging enthusiasm for her candidacy. Harris, 59, is more than two decades younger than Biden and quickly negates what had been the number one attack for the GOP against the Biden ticket.
Trump, 78, has also seen the GOP unify around his candidacy, particularly since a failed assassination attempt at one of his rallies on July 13. The shocking episode ended with Trump putting a defiant fist in the air and urging his supporters to fight as blood streaked his face from his ear.
Before the last two weeks, the Trump-Biden race had been epitomized by a lack of enthusiasm surrounding it, with some speculating voter turnout could be lower than previous elections.
It is too early to know if turnout will now increase, but a New York Times/Siena College poll this week found increasing support and enthusiasm for both Harris and Trump. It suggested the number of so-called “double haters” who dislike both candidates is rapidly shrinking.
Trump looked like a heavy favorite against Biden, but polls released since the president’s exit suggest a tightening race.
...
A key development to watch will be whether Harris and Trump end up competing in a debate in the next few months.
IT IS NOT POSSIBLE TO CHANGE THE INAUGURATION DATE AND ELECTION DATE CAN’T BE MUCH LATER THAN EARLY NOVEMBER
The US Congress CAN change the election date but for practical reasons it wouldn’t be possible to make it much later than early November of the year before the inauguration date.
As for the inauguration date, it takes a consensus of 38 states to change the inauguration date which is regular every 4 years in the USA always on 20th January which is when the next president takes office.
So we know when the US presidents will be inaugurated far into the future (unless the US constitution gets changed in this respect which is highly unlikely):
20th January 2025
20th Jan. 2029
20th Jan 2033
20th Jan 2037
20th Jan 2041
…
So, it is impossible to stop the process of elections without a change in the constitution.
Let’s look a bit closer at the constitution and the legal code:
A US PRESIDENT CAN’T CHANGE THE INAUGURATION DATE OF A NEW PRESIDENT - NEEDS CONSENSUS OF 38 STATES - AND ONLY CONGRESS CAN CHANGE THE ELECTION DATE - WHICH CAN’T BE MUCH LATER THAN THE NOVEMBER OF THE YEAR BEFORE THE NEXT INAUGURATION
There isn't any mechanism by which the election date can be shifted to another year. It is different from other countries like the UK. The inauguration date is set in the US Constitution. It can never be decided by the government. We know when the inauguration date is for centuries to come unless the US Constitution is changed.
This says that Biden's term ends on 20th January 2025 under the 20th amendment to the US Constitution. It takes 38 states to agree to the change at the end of a very long process to change that date
QUOTE The terms of the President and the Vice President shall end at noon on the 20th day of January.
Then the actual election date is set by the US legal code. It is the Tuesday after the first Monday in November.
. 2 U.S. Code § 7 - Time of election
This is easier to change, by bill in Congress which needs
a majority in the House
a 60 seat majority out of 100 in the Senate
signature of the president
For an uncontroversial urgent bill it could be changed in a single day. House votes on it in the morning (say), Senate in the afternoon, president signs in the evening.
But because of the constraints of inauguration day, the election day can be changed likely only to a different date in November. Even December would leave it too late.
Certainly not to a date in 2025 as that wouldn't leave enough time to count the votes, which can take weeks in the USA, it is so different from the UK where we know almost all results by the next day. They have 300 million people, two thirds of which votes and they always have far too few people to count the votes quickly in cities.
They then need to allow time for any legal cases about the votes, which again are common. We don't get those in the UK.
Then the voters only vote for electors. The electors then have to select a president. That then has to be certified in Congress usually around Jan 06.
You also sometimes have run-off elections through to January - if the election day was in December say, it would be too late for the run-offs to be completed before inauguration day.
So allowing for counting the votes, runoffs, legal cases, for the electors to vote and the ceremonies at Capitol hill - and allowing for the Christmas / New Year break, it couldn’t really be done as late as december.
It would take very exceptional circumstances to change it at this point. And only to a different date in November. Would require a bipartisan vote as it would take a majority in the House and a filibuster proof majority in the Senate, i.e. 60 out of 100 votes and then the president to sign it off.
This just isn't going to happen this late.
In short
A president doesn't have the power to change the inauguration date of Jan 20, 2025, nor does Congress.
Only a convention of 38 states can change the inauguration date.
Congress CAN change the election date which this year is 5th November 2024
time restrictions mean the election day can’t be later than November and preferably should be early in November.
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