Not in any way aggressive to permit Ukraine to fire shells with a range of 30 km over the border into Russia - this is normal - it is Russia should stop firing - Ukraine has the right to defend itself
- Ukraine has the right to defend itself under the UN Charter and the Budapest memorandum
There is nothing aggressive about what Ukraine wants to do. It’s normal. Russia is firing shells across the border into Ukraine. Russia as the invader should stop. Ukraine wants permission to fire shells back towards Russia. Ukraine as the defender is permitted to do this.
There is nothing even remotely escalatory about permitting Ukraine to use shells with a range of 30 km across the border into Russia. This is the main thing Ukraine wants.
I am writing this to help people scared that NATO countries are being aggressive and escalatory if they permit Ukraine to use their shells and missiles against legitimate defensive targets in Ukraine. Not at all. The UK and the leader of NATO are not being even slightly reckless this is totally normal in warfare and Putin knows it. His red line is just him trying it on because he has so much experience in this war of NATO being timid and obeying what he says if he vaguely thretens nukes no matter how bizarre and ridiculous it is.
Remember he threatened nukes if Europe used sanctions against Russia. Or if Finland or Sweden joined NATO. Every time he makes these bizarre threats and then does nothing when his red lines are crossed it confirms that he is a sane though ruthless man who is just using these threats as bluffs for the very rational reason that he gets feedback EVERY TIME that his bluffs work and delay measures NATO takes to help Ukraine defend itself. Nothing else make sense.
Also it is very clear Putin does not have even a moment’s thought about really attacking NATO or he wouldn’t hafve sent all his tanks from Moscow into Ukraine, or removed a lot of Russia’s air defences and most of his soldiers along the border with NATO to send into Ukraine.
This graphic shows a couple of positions either side of the current front line in the battle between Russia and Ukraine.
TEXT ON GRAPHIC.
Front line near Kudviika.
Russia can position a tank here and fire shells all day across the border into Ukraine.
The field behind these trees is in Ukraine.
Russia.
The UN charter is very clear.
- Russia is NOT permitted to fire its shells into Ukraine.
- Ukraine is PERMITTED to fire back to defend itself.Possible Russian tank position about here:
SAFE, PERMITTED AND NOT escalatory to let Ukraine fire back at Russia.
Because Biden is obeying Putin's bizarre red line:
Biden does NOT let Ukraine hit these trees in Russia.
Biden DOES let Ukraine hit this field in Ukraine.
Any Ukrainian soldiers here, less than 700 meters
away can't shoot back with US shells.They can only sit here waiting and hoping they won't be killed by the next shell.
This is why the speaker of the House in the USA, the leader of NATO, and many other leaders and experts are asking Biden to follow UK's example and drop this requirement.
Street view images from:
Streetview in Russia Google Maps
Streetview in Ukraine. Google Maps
I have no idea where the Russian tanks are or the Ukrainian defenders. But this is a natural place for Russia to place a tank on the right hand image since it can drive along the road.
The Ukrainians again would have that other road as a natural place to position their tank or artillery. But they can't.
The reason is that they are not permitted to fire US shells across the border into Russia.
This is a bonkers rule and makes no sense. It is only because Biden is obeying Putin's instructions not to let his shells be fired into Russia.
It is very clear that as soon as Biden lifts the rule, Putin will do nothing and ignore it. UK already lifted the rule for UK weapons and Putin did nothing.
This has happened with numerous previous red lines and Putin can't use nukes and he knows that and a war with NATO is not something he is even considering in reality.
This is obvious otherwise he would have kept some defenders along the long border between Russia and NATO and kept air defences in Russia and kept tanks in Moscow.
Russia is essentially defenceless to NATO at present. He just has his nukes as a deterrent. Nukes only act as a deterrent so long as the country with nukes doesn't use them. Nagasaki and Hiroshima were different because at that time only the US had nukes and even then many say it wasn't the nukes that ended the war - it continued for some time after the nukes and the US did many equally devastating fire bombings of Japanese cities.
If Russia uses his nukes he loses the deterrent as it then becomes the top priority of NATO to take over Russian air space as fast as possible and do many other secret and non conventional non nuclear ops within Russia to stop it launching more nukes.
Putin is not going to do that and it is very clear attacking NATO is just a bluff and is an idea he is not even considering.
Text on graphic: Because Biden still obeys Putin's bizarre red line:
Biden does NOT let Ukrainians drop shells in this wood in Russia.
A Russian tank here is safe from US shells.
Biden DOES let Ukrainian soldiers drop shells in this field in Ukraine.
Russia is currently attacking these villages less than 2 km from the Russian border.
The speaker of the House, leader of NATO, many others call on Biden to drop this rule. By the UN charter, Russia is the one should stop firing at Ukraine.
Map from here Google Maps
This is a closer zoom in on that position using Bing maps which is higher resolution:
Bing maps make it 1803 feet from the last spot where a tank could fit in comfortably on the road in Russian territory or 550 meters.
Or if the tank drove to that open patch in the woods, 1171 feet or 358 meters:
Of course even closer if the Ukrainians tried to approach right up to the border and if you follow that road in Ukraine up North a bit then you find it runs right along the Russian border later on. Presumably Ukrainian soldiers can’t use it any more because it is so close to the border.
NATO COUNTRIES ARE DECIDING CASE BY CASE - FRANCE PERMITS ITS WEAPONS TO BE USED AGAINST TARGETS THAT ARE FIRING MISSILES AT UKRAINE - GERMANY SAYS IT IS OKAY TO HIT TARGETS IN RUSSIA GENERALLY BUT WON’T REVEAL SECRET INSTRUCTIONS FOR UKRAINE - POLAND AS WITH UK HAS NO RESTRICTIONS - ITALY DOESN’T PERMIT ITS WEAPONS TO BE USED AGAINST TARGETS IN RUSSIA
I am not advocating anything, couldn't as a Buddhist who has taken the view of not killing. I am just helping scared people to understand that it is a safe and sane decision for a leader to make.
It's become clear that it's going to be decided country by country within NATO rather than the same rule for everyone. That happens sometimes. I expect Biden to permit it for the M777 howitzers first just personal guess. But probably not for a while.
France has now joined the UK in permitting Ukraine to use their systems against targets in Russia. Macron's permission is limited only to sites in Russia that Ukraine has identified as firing missiles at Ukraine and no other military targets.
So that is a possible model also that Biden could use too if he wanted to or other countries..
QUOTE Macron gave the green light on Tuesday for Ukraine to “neutralise […] identified targets” from which missiles are being launched, “but we must not allow them to reach other targets, including civilian infrastructure or other military targets”. Macron gives Ukraine green light to attack Russian-based military sites
Italy has gone the other way and it doesn't permit any of its missiles to be used against targets in Russia
. Italy opposes Stoltenberg on using Western weapons against targets in Russia
Poland meanwhile is the same as the UK - it says there are no restrictions on how Ukraine uses its howitzers, tanks, fighter jets etc against defensive targets in Russia.
QUOTE STARTS
Warsaw allows Ukraine to use the weapons supplied by Poland to attack military facilities on Russian territory, Deputy Defense Minister Cezary Tomczyk said on the air of Radio Zet,
http://News.Az
reports.
He stressed that there are no such restrictions on the Polish weapons supplied to Ukraine.
The Polish defense minister also called on other Western countries to lift restrictions on the use of the weapons supplied by them so that Kyiv could attack Russian facilities.
. warsaw-oks-ukraine%E2%80%99s-use-of-polish-weapons-against-russia-
Germany has now said that Ukraine can use weapons against military targets in Russia.
Since it's one of the most cautious of the NATO countries probably many of the others will now follow suite.
. Germany and France agree Ukraine may strike Russian military targets
However it won’t go into details yet.
Scholz's spokesperson Steffen Hebestreit told reporters that Ukraine's "defensive action is not limited to one's own territory, but [can] also be expanded to the territory of the aggressor," while also stressing that he could not reveal precise agreements with Kyiv on using German weapons as they are "confidential."
. Berlin tiptoes toward allowing Ukraine to hit Russia with German weapons
The Institute for the Study of War lists 10 countries so far:
Thus far 10 countries have expressed support for Ukraine's use of weapons they have provided to strike military targets on Russian territory with some or no restrictions: the UK, France, Sweden, Czechia, Poland, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, and Canada
That would be 11 if we can include Germany. The US is the big holdout.
THIS IS NOT BECAUSE THE US WANTS UKRAINE TO LOSE - BIDEN WAS VERY CLEAR, THE US WANTS UKRAINE TO WIN THE WAR
The US is very clear. They gave Ukraine these weapons to win, to drive Russia out of Ukraine. They have also repeatedly said they see Crimea as part of Ukraine not Russia. So their objective as for Ukraine is for Ukraine to liberate the entire region to the 2014 borders.
From December 2023:
QUOTE PRESIDENT BIDEN: We want to see Ukraine win the war. And, as I’ve said before, winning means Ukraine is a sovereign, independent nation and — that can afford to defend itself today and deter further aggression. That’s our objective.
More recently in May 2024:
Patel:
QUOTE The Secretary is in Kyiv to reaffirm what President Biden has said, which is that we want Ukraine to win, and we’re committing – committed to helping Ukraine to do just that. And with the support of the United States, our partners and allies, the Ukrainian people can and will achieve their vision for the future: a free, prosperous, and secure democracy, fully integrated into the Euro-Atlantic community and fully in control of its own destiny.
Foreign Secretary Blinken:
QUOTE STARTS
And we do have a plan, and we’re working together with Ukraine and a wide network of partners to realize it. And what I want to speak to you about this evening is what that plan looks like, and how we’re going to fully achieve it.
First, we’re helping to ensure that Ukraine has the military that it needs to succeed on the battlefield, to secure a just and lasting peace, and to deter future aggression.
Anyone who doubts your ability to attain this goal should just look at what you’ve already accomplished.
...
Our goal is to lay a foundation so strong that it dispels any doubts about Ukraine’s ability to impose punishing costs on those who try to take its territory.
Now, our joint task is to secure Ukraine’s sustained and permanent strategic advantage. So that Ukraine can not only deliver on the battlefield today, but deter and defend against future attacks.
As President Biden said, we want Ukraine to win – and we’re committed to helping you do it.
Now, we sometimes hear that time is on Putin’s side, that Russia’s bigger population – Putin’s willingness to throw more Russians into a meat grinder of his own making and sink more of Russia’s resources into trying to subjugate Ukraine – means that Russia can’t lose.
In fact, Russia’s been losing the battle to control Ukraine’s destiny for 20 years. And Putin has it wrong – time is on Ukraine’s side.
Because with each passing month, the work we’re doing together moves Ukraine closer to membership in the European Union and NATO.
With each passing month, Ukraine signs more bilateral security agreements, ramps up its defense industrial base, churns out more advanced weapons, strengthens its economy, consolidates its democracy.
As the war goes on, Russia is going back in time. Ukraine is moving forward.
Here is why I’m confident that Ukraine will continue along that trajectory and ultimately succeed: Because of all of you, because of the people of Ukraine.
There’s one thing that Putin has always underestimated but that Ukrainians understand to their core, and that’s the fierceness – the fierceness – with which free people will defend their right to shape their own destiny.
...
The spirit of Ukrainians cannot be destroyed by a bomb or buried in a mass grave.
It cannot be bought with a bribe or repressed with a threat.
It is pure. It is unbreakable. And it is why Ukraine will succeed. Slava Ukraini! Thank you.
Others have said that it is possible that Ukraine might settle for some arrangement where Russia keeps Crimea or part of Crimea or part of Donbas if Putin was to offer it and withdraw from the rest of Ukraine and it saved months or years of fighting. But the US and Ukraine don't say that in their official statements. It's speculation that if Putin was ready to negotiate at a future date that this might be a possibility.
Ukraine's published peace plan is one where Putin withdraws from all of Ukraine to the 2014 border and he also has to repatriate the children he separated from their parents in Ukraine and has to pay for war damages to rebuild Ukraine.
For a longer reply going into lots of details and with quotes from politicians and military experts see my:
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