#positivenewsclimate China likely peaked in emissions in 2023. So long as they continue their current very rapid expansion in renewables they soon head downwards in emissions
and likely world emissions peaked n 2023
TEXT ON GRAPHIC:
1.7°C path if China and India and other countries keep to their zero emission pledges.
India peaks before 2035 with announced pledges and always exceeds pledges.
Pledge is for net zero emissions by 2070.
World emissions may have peaked in 2023 when China's emissions likely peaked.
Left side: IEA, 2023. Right side: Evson et al., 2023.
For the analysis see:
. Analysis: Monthly drop hints that China’s CO2 emissions may have peaked in 2023 - Carbon Brief
It’s a follow up from the Carbon brief article last year that came to the same conclusion.
Carbon Brief explain that the additions have to continue to exceed the government's target.
What they don't make it clear, China ALWAYS exceeds its targets so that’s not unusual for them it’s expected.
As an example they recently opened the world’s biggest solar farm, as large as New York city and with a 5 Gigawatt power output.
. World’s biggest solar farm goes online, big enough to power an entire country
More details here:
The huge project will cover 200,000 acres, and has been built in a desert area of Ürümqi, the regional capital, by the state-owned Ürümqi Zhonglvdian New Energy Co Ltd. The facility is expected to produce around 6,090GWh of electricity annually, enough to meet more than a quarter of the annual energy demand of Los Angeles.
With this project, China now holds the three largest solar projects in the world by capacity, with the Ningxia Tenggeli and Golmud Wutumeiren projects already in operation, and each boasting a capacity of 3GW.
When asked about the project, Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) analyst Jenny Chase told PV Tech that the project is likely part of China’s ‘megabase’ programme, an initiative to instal 455GW of new solar and wind capacity in remote areas, such as wastelands and deserts.
“The first batch of 97GW of solar and wind megabase projects were supposed to be commissioned by the end of 2023, so this is probably part of the second batch, which includes at least 23.4GW of PV as tracked by BNEF last year,” said Chase, referring to figures from BNEF. “China aims for 200GW of megabase projects before the end of 2025 and another 255GW between 2026 and 2030, the period of the 15th Five-Year Plan.”
…
China’s dominance of the global solar sector is nothing new, but the rate of growth in the sector remains impressive; earlier this year, China’s National Energy Administration reported that China added 45.7GW of new capacity in the first quarter of the year, up from 33.6GW in the first quarter of 2023, and this latest project addition will only further this growth.
The news follows a number of investments made into considerably large-scale solar projects around the world, headlined by the ongoing work at the Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park in the UAE. The project currently has 2.6GW of capacity in operation, and reached financial close on a deal to add a further 1.8GW of new capacity earlier this year; should this capacity be realised, the project will become the world’s second-largest solar project by capacity.
So there is no doubt here about China’s commitment. But China has a different approach from Western countries. They only set targets they are very sure they can meet easily unlike the West where countries tend to set targets that are quite difficult to meet to spur development.
It's just a different attitude to target setting. The targets aren't used to drive ambition. If I understand right, this is because of Chinese ideas that it is shameful not to achieve their targets. So they need to set targets they know they can achieve.when China's emissions peak it's likely global emissions do too.
WHY CHINA BUILDS SO MANY COAL FIRED PLANTS JUST TO USE THEM AT LESS THAN CAPACITY OR RETIRE EARLY - AS A LOW COST WAY TO COPE WITH SURGES IN DEMAND UNTIL THE RENEWABLE GRID IS LARGE ENOUGH
China expects its coal power plants to be used at less than capacity and retired early.
China needs coal at present because it gets surges in demand and it hasn't yet constructed enough renewables to cope. It was able to handle the surge in demand after the COVID recession using coal. That encouraged China to continue to build coal to be prepared.
But it still didn’t have enough. It got blackouts because of inadequate hydropower in drought conditions and not enough coal power to take up the slack.
You might wonder why didn’t they surge in renewables instead?
The thing is that Coal fired powerplants cost much less to build than renewables but then they cost far more to run because renewables have no fuel costs.
So if you need to quickly increase capacity at low cost, fossil fuels are still the easiest way to do that.
So the natural way to deal with these issues is to build low cost coal power plants to deal with issues like drought impact on hydropower.
This makes sense as security for a country that is still industrializing with a rapidly surging energy demand which likely doubles once more before it plateaus.
But because China is also at the same time rapidly increasing renewables then those new power plants will be used less and less at lower and lower levels and many retired early.
This is widely misunderstood outside of China. But China is deliberately building low cost power stations that it knows will be stranded assets as its renewables ramp up but it is trading off stranded assets for energy security. Since renewables are expanding exponentially and the costs of renewable electricity are falling too, the coal fired power plants will soon be uneconomical to run and will shut down.
QUOTE:
Carbon Brief: Your report concluded that China’s coal power output will soon peak and decline – despite rising coal capacity – thanks to the rapid rise of clean energy sources. How widely do you think that potential tipping point is understood, both within China and internationally?
Xuyang Dong: This potential is not being understood or acknowledged enough both within China and internationally. China is prioritising energy security over the need to reduce coal-use. It has positioned thermal power as the backup energy source to ensure energy security, as electricity demand continues to grow and boost the economy. This strategy is being emphasised after the downturn in hydropower generation last year caused by droughts, as well as blackouts in different parts of the country due to the unmet rising electricity demand. I think there is a pressure domestically of not wanting to admit it, as they really want to ensure energy security first. Concurrently, China is increasing renewable energy capacity at a staggering pace that far outstrips every other nation on the planet.
Internationally, news headlines continue to emphasise that China is building new coal-fired power plants, leading to a lack of confidence about China’s commitment to decarbonising its national electricity grid, although the expansion in renewable energy additions in China is at an unprecedented speed and scale.
However, the picture is more positive when we look at installed capacity. At the end of March this year, 53% of China’s installed capacity is zero-emissions. This paves the way for China to reduce its reliance on coal and to do so rapidly – as we map in our report. China now needs to be more ambitious in its climate targets and it is well positioned to do so
CB: If China is to announce more ambitious climate goals and expand renewable energy like you suggested in the report, in your opinion, what are the barriers?
XD: We are aware there are concerns over China’s land-use as a major constraint for building more wind and solar farms. We have run a case study on a 1.5 gigawatt (GW) solar project being built in the Tengger Desert in Ningxia province. The project has 3.5m solar modules installed and only took up 0.1% of the total desert. In our model, we estimate that China needs to install a total of 5,405GW of new solar capacity to reach its dual-carbon targets and that may require only 11% of a total land area of the Gobi Desert, a neighbouring desert to Tengger.
The real challenge is that more transmission lines are needed. China recently started construction of an ultra-high-voltage power line project, which will cover three provinces – Shaanxi, Hubei and Anhui – to send 36 terawatt hours (TWh) of electricity to Anhui per annum and help boost renewable energy consumption by more than 18TWh per annum. More transmission lines like this are needed to maximise the renewable energy generation potential of China’s desert areas and to resolve China’s land use constraints in the east coast.
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CB: In the future you described, what role do you think solar and wind energy will play?
XD: As our report mapped out, wind and solar will be the leading energy sources in the future. China’s manufacturing capacity is driving down the cost for solar panels, modules and wind turbines. The cost of deploying them is lower, too. In the meantime, they have the world’s leading technology, which can increase the utilisation rates. However, it needs to be accompanied by a better sort of combination in the energy storage system, and better energy storage, so the renewable energy it generates doesn’t go to waste and it can also help with China’s entire curtailment issues.
. Interview: China’s renewables ‘pave the way to rapidly reduce coal reliance’ - Carbon Brief
I talk here about the general principles, about why China has to build so many coal fired power plants when its goal is a renewables green revolution which seems contradictory but is not when you understand more.
None of the Western countries are in this situation where they need to rapidly ramp up their power capacity faster than they can ramp up renewables so they don’t have this dilemma, all have close to steady or falling power demands.
But the renewables growth is exponential or faster in China and doubles in about 3 years while the energy demand doubles eery 7 hears or so and likely has only one more doubling to go, so the renewables will catch up and overtake the energy demand increase, has to happen in less than a decade and it seems it may have happened already. Once demand levels off, if renewables continue exponential growth the emissions will begin to fall very fast.
GLOBALLY WE LIKELY PEAK IN 2023 IF CURRENT GROWTH RATES IN RENEWABLES ARE MAINTAINED WHICH LEADS LATER TO MORE AMBITIOUS PLEDGES
Projections here based on the accelerating pledges scenario is peak in 2023.
QUOTE STARTS
Our third scenario, and focus of this report, (continued acceleration) looks at what happens if current growth trends in wind, solar and electric vehicles seen at the regional and national level are maintained – with country-level analyses conducted for China, the US, the EU, India and Brazil. It also assumes signatories to the Global Methane Pledge make adequate progress towards achieving the collective target.
This is the only scenario which meets the IPCC milestone, peaking in 2023 with a high confidence (70%) when accounting for year-to-year emissions fluctuations.
IEA current policy projections tend to be conservative when compared to actual wind and solar growth data. To adjust for this, the continued acceleration scenario follows an S-curve which emulates the explosive growth of maturing technologies. This shows a faster decline in CO2 emissions compared to the IEA’s scenario and results in around 2.5 times more renewable capacity in 2030 than today.
In the continued acceleration scenario, the rapid scale up of zero-carbon technologies begins to outstrip growth in energy demand for the first time, causing fossil fuel demand to peak and start falling. With peak coal, oil and gas on the near horizon, any expansion of fossil fuel production represents a huge stranded asset risk and could slow the energy transition.
Evson et al., 2023. When will global greenhouse gas emissions peak? - report
This scenario with accelerating pledges will leave India as the one remaining big emitter with emissions still rising.
India likely peaks around 2035 with its announced pledge scenario - that's on the IEA's 1.7°C path if all countries keep to their pledges. Like China, India always exceeds its pledges.
India’s pledge is zero by 2070. Also, as technology improves, costs of renewables will go down and it will be easier to improve on pledges. Also as we get more effects of climate change which will be very noticeable in India that will be another reason to expect them to increase pledges and also as young grow up who care more about this.
Because of this there is a good chance that we actually are headed for at least 0.1°C cooler and possibly 0.2°C below the IEA scenario which means peaking at 1.6°C or 1.5°C. Year to year variability is +- 0.2 C so it would be very hard to tell just from yearly measurements if we are at 1.6°C or 1.5°C.
NONE OF THE IPCC SCENARIOS FEATURE ACCELERATING PLEDGES - even though that is the basis for the way the Paris agreement is supposed to work.
I find it a little strange actually. That they only use existing pledges and treat those as very optimistic too if they are not yet policy. But our experience throughout has been that countries keep increasing their pledges. So what happens if that continues? This is not even explored as an IPCC scenario yet it seems the most likely future.
SO LONG AS WE CONTINUE WITH OUR EXISTING CLIMATE AMBITION WE SHOULD COME IN AT WELL BELOW 2 C - SO CLIMATE JUSTICE AND SUPPORT FOR WEAKER ECONOMIES AND BIODIVERSITY BECOME OUR TOP PRIORITY
This is why it's increasingly important we focus on supporting the weaker economies, on a green industrial revolution, and on achieving and exceeding our biodiversity protection targets and reversing biodiversity loss.
Personal view here but based on fact checking expert reports.
We need to keep up ambition on the green energy transition but so long as countries at least equal their pledges that's the main thing to focus on and if they do we can be pretty certain that China and India exceed them and in reality because the cost of the technology is sure to keep falling fast and they are not able to allow for that in their projections because they can't assume it will even though it is near certain it will - I think that our emissions goals are already met and we shouldn't worry about whether we reach 1.6°C or 1.5°C with near certainty we do better than 1.7°C.
We are doing a huge amount on climate change. Here are three good climate news stories all in the same day
The stories are: TWEET: This graph blows my mind.. 63% of solar panels and 65% of wind turbines installed last year were installed in China 🤯 Source for this graphic here . 2023s-record-solar-surge-explained-in-six-charts On the graph notice how the Chinese renewables jumped so fast in 2023.
. EU 2030 climate and environmental targets within reach mid-term review confirms 2030 climate & environmental targets within reach
. Analysis: European power-sector emissions fall by 20% since last EU election - Carbon Brief
Mainstream media only manage to write gloomy articles about climate change by simply ignoring ALL the good news stories.
HANNAY RITCHIE: WE’VE MADE A SURPRISING AMOUNT OF PROGRESS ON CLIMATE CHANGE - WHY WE NEED TO HIGHLIGHT STORIES OF PROGRESS TO BUILD A BETTER FUTURE
This is what Hannah Ritchie says:
TWEET STARTS We have made a surprising amount of progress on climate change, despite being up against vested interests, and expensive solutions.
We haven't had a proper go at tackling it.
Think what we can do now that many of the solutions are affordable, and getting better every year. Hannah Ritchie (@_HannahRitchie) on X
She goes through five reasons why we need to highlight stories of success and progress and says it doesn't lead to complacency but instead to more action.
She first explains that highlighting the amazing progress we've made to better well being in the past century doesn't lull us into complacency but instead inspries us that we can do more.
She then goes through particular points:
1. Progress creates the momentum for more positive change
She gives the example for someone training for a marathon. If they see signs that they are managing to run longer and longer distances they will be far more encourged to keep training than if they make no progress.
She also gives the example of action measles, something that she is an advocate for. Success in combating measles encourages people to give more it doesn't discourage them.
2. Shows how in the past we found that the seemingly unachievable, IS ACHIEVABLE and so can do so again today
She talks about how the world we are living in today would seem an unachievable future in the mid 20th century. Which is true. We have moved far faster than most people imagined by now in terms of equality, health, ending famines etc.
Then says that recognizing this doesn't lead to complacency but instead inspires us that we can achieve a future where the world is running on clean energy, we end world hunger, and wildlife is making a comeback (it already is in many places e.g. in Europe).
She says "We are not killing tens of millions of animals for meat" too - but we can have a future with sustainable agriculture with meat eating - I don't think she is advocating veganism or vegetarianism there from other thing she has said.
We will surely still have meat eating on all scenarios so I'm not sure why she said that since it is clearly true but maybe it is in response to people who don’t know that.
3. Past progress is full of lessons that can improve things today
She gives the example of health success story in Bangladesh.
We could use examples of many renewable success stories today - and the numerous success stories in restoring degraded habitats that became deserts. I give many examples here of numerous past and present day stories of success for climate change and biodiversity:
BLOG: Videos of good things that are happening in the world for climate change and biodiversity
4. Pointing out successes puts pressure on leaders to deliver the same (or more)
Gives examples of past situations like acid rain where showing that another country has solved the problem means that leaders can no longer use the excuse that it is too difficult to attempt.
Same also with the example of a low carbon grid. Many countries are now showing by doing that it can be done which then shows that the people who say it is impossible were wrong. Which puts pressure on other countries to follow suit.
5. To solve problems we need to move forward, not backward
She talks about how it is not possible to move backwards to some utopia where we all live at low levels of technology like we did in the nineteenth century - because that would lead very rapidly to mass starvation of billions of people. Instead we need to move forwards and know what we know we can do which is to live sustainably which we can do with even much more than our current population.
See my
BLOG: We can grow enough food for everyone through to 2100 and beyond on all scenarios
The balance of progress and complacency
She talks about how we need to explain what we are doing without giving the impression we are already doing enough to keep the balance.
Her post again is here: Why we need to highlight stories of progress to build a better future
SO DEBUNKERS CAN SEE WHAT WE DO AS A WAY TO HELP WITH ACTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE WHEN WE FACT CHECK THE DISMAL FALSE STORIES - THIS HELPS OUR MEMBERS BE MORE POSITIVE AND FAR MORE LIKELY TO ACT IN POSITIVE WAYS IF THEY WANT TO
It is what we do here with fact checking the many dismal and false stories about climate change the ones that say nobody is doing anything and that they continue to do nothing and that we have to do something very drastic to solve the problems but the situation is almost hopeless because nobody will do it.
Activists see this as a way to inspire people to action but it doesn't work for most people that FALSE story is the opposite of what is needed.
We are in the middle of the biggest transformation that the world has ever been through probably the transition to renewables, to integrating conservation and nature solutions and protecting nature into everything we do, recycling, making our societies more resilient. Restoring deserts. It's just amazing what has happened in just the last few years.
For the most action we need to turn all that negative framing around to say that actually we are doing a lot and to encourage us to do more. That is where we are going.
We have a solution. The sustainable development path. Transformative change that achieves growth in everything we value. We are increasingly following this path which works not only scientifically but is also socially and politically and economically feasible too.
We know what to do and we are following this path too increasingly as it only makes sense.
Hannah Ritchie's post again. Why we need to highlight stories of progress to build a better future
She is one of the few people I can recommend who communicate accurately, and clearly and positively on climate change.
HOPEFULLY, MORE EXPERTS WILL BLOG IN OPTIMISTIC WAYS ONCE EMISSIONS PRE YEAR ARE NOTICEABLY FALLING AS THEY SURELY WILL DO WITHIN A FEW YEARS
I think we'll see more optimism from experts as the emissions start to fall and the more the faster they fall. It's illogical because we can predict already that the emissions will fall and start falling faster but I think it is only when they have fallen for a while that it will really dawn on people what you can see already from the projections that emissions are going to fall and fall fast.
MOVING QUICKLY ON GREEN ENERGY TRANSITIONS ALREADY SAVES MONEY AND MAKES IT MORE COST EFFECTIVE
“The data makes it clear that the quicker you move on clean energy transitions, the more cost effective it is for governments, businesses and households,” said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol. “If policy makers and industry leaders put off action and spending today, we will all end up paying more tomorrow. The first-of-a-kind global analysis in our new report shows that the way to make energy more affordable for more people is to speed up transitions, not slow them down. But much more needs to be done to help poorer households, communities and countries to get a foothold in the new clean energy economy.”
he report finds that incentives and greater support, particularly targeted at poorer households, can improve the uptake of clean energy technologies. This would allow all consumers, especially those who are less well-off, to fully reap the benefits of these technologies and the cost savings, while also supporting efforts to reach international energy and climate goals.
The report sets out a series of measures, drawing on proven policies from countries around the world, that governments can deploy to make clean technologies more accessible to all people. These include delivering energy efficiency retrofit programmes to low-income households; obliging utilities to fund more efficient heating and cooling packages; making highly efficient appliances more readily available; providing affordable clean transport options, including more support for public transport and second-hand EV markets; replacing fossil fuel subsidies with targeted cash transfers for the most vulnerable; and using carbon price revenues to tackle potential social inequities that may arise during energy transitions.
. Rapid rollout of clean technologies makes energy cheaper, not more costly - News - IEA
CLIMATE GOOD NEWS STORIES - GREEN HYDROGEN MAY FALL IN PRICE RAPIDLY MAKING A BIG DIFFERENCE TO COUNTRIES IN EUROPE THAT DEPEND HEAVILY ON GAS
This is one of many stories like this. There is a huge amount of work and innovation in green tech. The companies won’t necessarily all succeed indeed many fail but amongst them all are the pioneers of the next breakthrough in renewables tech. This could possibly be one of those:
QUOTE STARTS
A kilogram of hydrogen holds 39.4 kWh of energy, but typically costs around 52.5 kWh of energy to create via current commercial electrolyzers. Australian company Hysata says its new capillary-fed electrolyzer cell slashes that energy cost to 41.5 kWh, smashing efficiency records while also being cheaper to install and run. The company promises green hydrogen at around US$1.50 per kilogram within just a few years.
...
Hysata CEO Paul Barrett says the company plans to have the technology commercialized and up to "gigawatt-scale hydrogen production capacity by 2025," at which point he believes US$1.50 per kilogram hydrogen should be possible. Plans are underway to build a pilot electrolyzer manufacturing plant, and the company is hiring "dozens" of people in 2022 as part of the process.
...
Of course, there's a long race to be run between a published paper and massive commercial success, but with potential upsides like Hysata is claiming, this is clearly a company to keep an eye on.
. Record-breaking hydrogen electrolyzer claims 95% efficiency
Here is a video explaining it in technical detail: Hysata: Bubble-Free Capillary Water Electrolysis
It is a very low cost way to store energy. The main issue is that it is very low density so needs big fuel tanks unless it is liquified as in rocket engines.
It turns out that what makes it inefficient to create hydrogen by electrolysis is the way bubbles form as it is separated from the oxygen in water. This company found a way using capillary action to do the electrolysis and produce the gas without those energy wasting bubbles.
This is how it works:
Originally the electrodes were just immersed in water with oxygen given off in bubbles from one electrode and hydrogen from the other.
Later the industry first reduced the gap between the electrodes which reduced the bubbles to just one side of each electrode.
Then they made one of the electrodes face onto air giving off the hydrogen without any water to bubble through.
Their latest version has air on both sides, and the water feeds the electrodes from the center where it is drawn up quickly by very rapid capillary action.
Graphic from this review article here: (Ng et al., 2024 Elevating the prospects of green hydrogen (H2) production through solar-powered water splitting devices: A systematic review : figure 9)
It seems promising. He says in the video I just shared that their company already has $5 billion in orders with $20 billion in negotiation at 3 years old at 8:33
He explains at 8:54 how it works that the water is deionized so contaminants don’t build up, it’s designed so the water just wets the electrodes with a very thin layer and so the hydrogen or oxygen is able to leave that layer without forming bubbles. It’s also got potassium hydroxide to make the water alkaline and more conductive. Some customers such as steel furnaces can use the oxygen, if not it is just vented.
Short summary: Our Technology - Hysata
SEE ALSO
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