Putin's close connections with Russian Jews and support for the Russian émigrés in Israel - why it is no surprise that Russia held back from selling Iran effective defences from Israel

I monitor TASS, the Russian propaganda news site from time to time. One thing I noticed is that the very first news story on TASS about the US attack was of Netanyahu congratulating Trump for the strikes.

This is Russian propaganda news with a strongly favorable story about the US strikes on Iran.

Why would that be? The US strike would appeal to Russian Jews.

And Russia doesn't want Iran to have nukes either - it doesn’t want an unpredictable neighbouring country with nukes and one that is opposed to Israel where there are lots of Russian émigré Jews.

TEXT ON GRAPHIC:

Netanyahu thanks Trump for striking Iran, says move to 'change history'
According to Jewish Prime Minister, this step "will change history"

TEL AVIV, June 22. /TASS/. Israel is grateful to US President Donald Trump for his decision to strike nuclear facilities in Iran, Jewish Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said.

According to him, this step "will change history."

"Congratulations President Trump, your bold decision to target Iran’s nuclear facilities with the awesome and righteous might of the United States will change history," Netanyahu said in a video statement released by his office.

Red text [mine]:

Putin is close friends with the chief rabbit of Russia

First news story about the US strikes on Iran in TASS, Russian propaganda news

US setting back Iran's nuke program would appeal to Russian Jews with many relatives in Israel

Putin also talked about that after the strikes:

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In context:

Putin: "I would like to draw your attention to the fact that almost two million people from the former Soviet Union and the Russian Federation reside in Israel. It is almost a Russian-speaking country today. And, undoubtedly, we always take this into account in Russia’s contemporary history," the Russian president said, commenting on the current situation in the Middle East.

"Secondly, traditionally we have very good, trusting, friendly and allied ties with the Arab and Islamic world," Putin added. "And, due to the fact that approximately 15% of our own population is Islamic, we are observers in the Organization of Islamic Cooperation. You see, here we also have to keep this factor in mind,"

https://tass.com/politics/1977955

This might seem baffling with all the claims of a Russia / China / Iran / NK “axis of evil” but in reality there is very little in common between those four countries.

Russia’s alliance with Iran was very pragmatic. Russia did NOT have Russian soldiers in Iran and it is NOT involved like it was with Assad propping up his regime. The Ayatollah doesn’t need an external military to keep control of his country.

Russia needed the Shahed drones early in the war - it got its first deliveries on 17th October 2022. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_and_the_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine#Iranian_weapons_deliveries_to_Russia

But it quickly learnt to make its own and is no longer dependent on Iran for those supplies.

Russia only signed a mutual non aggression pact - a promise for instance not to supply US or Israel with weapons during an active war with Iran

Russia is not going to help Iran.

What Iran needs urgently are air defences and it needs them RIGHT NOW and has wanted them for MONTHS.

Russia isn't providing them. When Russia won't even SELL Iran air defences when it is under attack by Israel, how does it make sense that Russia would enter the war itself on Iran's side if US joins in. It makes utterly NO SENSE.

Russia has very strong ties with Israel through the Russian Jews in Israel. It has only a mutual non aggression pact with Iran. A promise not to attack Iran or to supply other countries with military supplies while they are at war with Iran. That’s all.

Russia never helped Assad against the rebels and it had a far closer connection with him.

But Russia was so caught up in the Ukraine war - that when Assad was losing against the rebels, Russia did almost nothing to help him. It focused on getting its own forces out of Syria before it collapsed It then evacuated the Tartus port losing Russia’s only port on the Mediterranean and only sea port outside of the former Soviet Union.

That was against rebels with no fighter jets, no missiles, mostly driving around in open top trucks though they had some armoured vehicles.

So Russia doesn’t have much capability to help Iran even if it wanted to as it can’t spare the forces from the Ukraine war.

So what about Iran’s treaty with Russia?

They don't have a defence treaty they have a mutual non-aggression pact, very different thing.

Russia agrees not to attack Iran and not to supply any country with weapons in the middle of a war with Iran.

So

• Russia can't supply Israel or the US with weapons to attack Iran for as long as the conflict continues.

That's all that Russia has agreed to. It was never plausible that it would support Israel or US anyway so it was a rather pointless pact from Iran’s point of view.

This is the relevant clause:

QUOTE 3. In the event that either Contracting Party is subject to aggression, the other Contracting Party shall not provide any military or other assistance to the aggressor which would contribute to the continued aggression, and shall help to ensure that the differences that have arisen are settled on the basis of the United Nations Charter and other applicable rules of international law.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/0/06/Comprehensive_Strategic_Partnership.pdf

Apart from that Russia raises issues in the UN Security council and says everyone must stop fighting - that's all it will do.

Russia’s official response:

"no matter what explanations those who planned, developed and carried out the attack on Iran may use to justify it, the crisis around the Iranian nuclear program cannot be resolved by military force and can be settled exclusively through peaceful, political and diplomatic means.

… We hope that this is the approach that will ultimately prevail. We call on the parties to exercise restraint in order to prevent further escalation of tensions and the region's slide into full-scale war. In this regard, we recall the US readiness to hold another round of talks with Iran on its nuclear program in Oman,

. Russia strongly condemns Israel’s attack against Iran — Foreign Ministry

Tass is accurate on Russia's own official statements.

Putin has close connections with Jews in Russia and there are many Russian Jews in Israel and there is no way that Putin would attack Israel.

Putin has close ties with Jews in Russia and Russia used to be strongly in support of Israel - as a result of Ukraine war moved to neutral status not pro Iran

Associated Press describe it like this:

QUOTE STARTS

During the Cold War, Moscow armed and trained Israel’s Arab foes. Diplomatic relations with Israel ruptured in 1967 but were restored in 1991. Russian-Israeli ties quickly warmed after the collapse of the Soviet Union and have remained strong.

Despite Moscow’s close ties with Tehran, Putin has repeatedly demonstrated his readiness to take Israeli interests into account.

He has maintained warm, personal ties with Netanyahu, who frequently traveled to Russia before the war in Ukraine.

Russia and Israel have built a close political, economic and cultural relationship that helped them tackle delicate and divisive issues, including developments in Syria. It survived a tough test in 2018, when a Russian military reconnaissance aircraft was shot down by Syrian forces responding to an Israeli airstrike, killing all 15 people aboard.

And even though Russia supplied Iran with sophisticated S-300 air defense missile systems, which Israel said were taken out during its strikes last year on Iran, Moscow has dragged its feet on deliveries of other weapons in an apparent response to Israeli worries. In particular, Russia has delayed providing advanced Su-35 fighter jets that Iran wants so it can upgrade its aging fleet.

Israel, in its turn, appeared to take Moscow’s interests into account by showing little enthusiasm for providing Ukraine with weapons in the 3-year-old war.

The Kremlin’s friendly ties with Israel has fueled discontent in Tehran, where some members of the political and military leadership reportedly were suspicious of Moscow’s intentions.

https://apnews.com/article/russia-israel-iran-attack-mideast-nuclear-us-d5374c53a8b7188f29ffdc25486f5b55

This is a summary of Putin’s close ties with the Jews in Russia:

TEXT ON GRAPHIC: (NEEDS TO BE UPDATED TO MATCH IMAGE)

Berel Lazar, chief rabbi of Russia.

Sometimes called Putin’s rabbi because of his close connections with putin. Putin was brought up friends with Jews next door and has a long and close connection with Russian Jews.

1.5 million Russian Jews + families in Israel. Russia was very pro Israel before the Ukraine war and is now resolutely neutra on Iran v. Israel.

Graphic: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Berel_Lazar_April_2021_(cropped).jpg

Russia used to be strongly in support of Israel and moved to a more neutral stance as a result of the Ukraine war where they are fighting a country led by a Jew, Zelensky.

But Putin has close ties with Jews in Russia, was brought up neighbours to a Jewish family in St Petersburg that his family was on close terms with

. A Surprising Story Behind Putin's Love of Jews

Putin has a close connection with a rabbi often referred to as Putin's rabbi, as Wikipedia puts it:

QUOTE Because of his connections to Russian President Vladimir Putin he is sometimes called "Putin's rabbi."

. Berel Lazar, chief rabbi of Russia.

There are large numbers of former USSR Jews in Israel. About 900,000 or 1.5 milion if you also add non Jewish members of Jewish households from Russia.

. Russian Jews in Israel

. Immigration to Israel

Russia didn’t sell Iran the Su-35s it asked for for months

Iran has been asking Putin to SELL them Su-35 fighter jets - these are roughly equivalent to an F-16 even a slight edge over them in some respects. Israel would have found it hard to take over the Iranian air space if it had Su-35s.

Russia promised to send them, there were rumours that they were already in Iran - but it never did because they never showed up over the last 10 days of fighting.

It is now too late to do either of those, it won't be easy to deliver either air defences or the Su-35s into Iran now that Israel has control of its air space.

Which is best - F-16 or Su-35 - hard to say but with the F-16s operating at the limit of their range from Israel they might have been able to defend Iran

The F-16 has some advantages because it’s smaller and harder to see in radar but on paper the Su-35 should be able to hit it and see it from further away.

They haven’t been involved in confirmed air to air battles yet - the Ukrainians shot down an Su-35 after it got F-16s, but it might have been ground defences.

QUOTE STARTS

The F-16 "is very hard to see because it's smaller than most aircraft, especially when it's aimed directly at you," Hampton commented.

It is kitted out with one M-61A1 20mm multi-barrel cannon, and can carry six air-to-air missiles.

Like the F-16, the Sukhoi Su-35 is a multi-role fighter. A twin-engine, single-seat aircraft, it is described as "Russia's signature heavy fighter bomber" by the RAND Corporation think tank.

While the F-16 can reach Mach 2, or twice the speed of sound, Russian sources say the Su-35 has a maximum speed of Mach 2.25. But the Su-35 does not have the advanced active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar fitted into the F-16, and is "easy to see, easy to pick up on radar, and easy to shoot at with a long-range missile," according to Hampton.

It's "very large," he added. The Su-35 has a wingspan of nearly 50 feet, and a length of almost 70 feet. The Su-35 is "a typical Russian machine and looks good," Hampton said. "But deep down, it's not really that good of a plane."

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-su35-comparison-f16-jets-ukraine-1788873

In the other direction:

QUOTE STARTS

The Su-35 simply dwarfs the F-16. With a length of 72 feet and a wingspan of 50 feet, the Su-35 is about 50 percent larger than the F-16; at more than 18 tons, it’s almost twice the weight of the Viper. The Su-35 is armed with a 30-mm cannon as well as a dozen hardpoints capable of launching an array of air-to-air and air-to-ground ordnance. What particularly worries Ukraine and the West are its long-range R-37 and R-77 radar-homing air-to-air missiles, which are fire-and-forget weapons that can pick off Ukrainian aircraft from beyond the range of Ukrainian air-to-air missiles.

...

What is notable is that the Su-35 is considered “supermaneuverable,” in large part because it uses thrust-vectoring, which employs steerable nozzles to direct engine thrust. Using a capability found on only a few aircraft—including the F-22 and Su-30MKI—the Su-35 can perform the spectacular “Cobra maneuver,” where the fighter abruptly slows and stands on its tail, forcing an enemy aircraft behind to overshoot.

...

Unfortunately for Ukraine, the Su-35 is deadly at beyond-visual-range air combat as well as dogfighting. First, the Su-35 may spot the F-16 before the Viper spots the Flanker-E; the Su-35’s Irbis-E radar can reportedly detect airborne targets up to 400 kilometers (249 miles) away, according to its manufacturer, Tikhomirov.

...

In addition, the Su-35’s radar is more powerful. It has 5 kilowatts of power compared to just 770 watts for the AN/APG-66(V)2, Tannehill says. “I’m not saying that it can see five times farther or ten times farther, but it can see a lot farther than an APG-66.”

As if superior radar isn’t enough, the Su-35 has—on paper—better missiles. The R-37 has an estimated target-detection range of 400 kilometers (249 miles), while the R-77-1 has a range of 110 kilometers (68 miles). These “fire and forget” active-homing missiles streak to the vicinity of their target, and then use their own onboard radar to home in for the kill.

https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/aviation/a60268417/f-16-vs-su-35/

Russia has no remaining bases in the Middle East anyway

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Russian_military_bases_abroad

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