Russia’s tiny advances haven't reached the Ukrainian fortifications - minor details and VERY FAR from Karkhiv city - crossed into a grey contested area along the Russian border with Karkhiv oblast
[MID EDIT]
There are news stories today FALSELY claiming a major success for Russia because they advanced across the border from Russia into Ukraine north of Karkhiv city into a gray contested area along the border.
People are saying “why didn’t Ukraine set up fortifications to prevent this?
Well it’s a gray contested area under fire from Russia. Yo can be sure that Ukraine has set up fortifications further back but it’s not easy to set up fortifications along the border with Russia under direct fire from them and when Ukraine is so careful not to push over into Russia at any point.
The main fortifications are further back.These are very small advances. One tank was destroyed before it crossed the border and large numbers of Russian vehicles on the Ukrainian side of the border. It is typical of many recent Russian advances. They send large numbers of vehicles but most of them get destroyed. The main fighting happens on foot making very slow progress.
They are stuck everywhere else. Their attempt to take Chasiv Yar a tiny city of 13,000 in peace time hasn't been able to move for 4 days, just a few hundred meters advance sideways.
This is minor news and shouldn't be running as a big story it is only for geeks who follow every twist and turn of the war.
This may help you see why if you follow the war closely, Russia taking this tiny area does NOT mean Karkhiv city is at risk.
Text on graphic: Half encircled Karkhiv: April to September 2022
Nowhere near Karkhiv city. Barely changed September 2022 to May 2024
New: (encircles tiny incursion over the Russian border into Karkhiv oblast)
Karkhiv is a big city of 1.4 million people. The Russians almost encircled it for the entire summer 2022, only pushed away in the fall. They were constantly bombarding it with artillery. The people of Karkhiv had to live in the underground most of the time through 2022. Yet Russia couldn't take it then.
This time the Russians are not within artillery range of Karkhiv city. If they advance a few more kilometers they will get within range to hit its outskirts.
However that will be hard to do. They haven’t yet reached the main Ukrainian fortifications.
https://twitter.com/Mylovanov/status/1789510610218066268
TWEET: Update on the Russian new offensive in Karkhiv.
Multiple OSINT [Open Source Intelligence] reports that Russia is making some progress north of Karkhiv. However, Russian troops have not yet reached the main line of properly fortified Ukrainian positions.
Remember Russian separatists have often crossed over to Belgorod the other way and taken a few Russian villages for a few days (not the Ukrainian army, Russians who crossed over to help Ukraine and cross back into Russia from time to time)
This is much the same in the opposite direction. A minor incursion. It may not last long, they may be pushed out quite soon. There is no way that it leads to them encircling Karkhiv which is over 25 kilometers way, just out of reach of artillery for Russia..
All that happened this time is that Russia sent some foot soldiers across the border to take some villages on the Ukrainian side of the line. They tried to send tanks too but one of the tanks was destroyed on the Russian side of the border before it got into Ukraine and several others were destroyed just inside of Ukraine. Ukrainians had been preparing for this and were ready for them.
. Weekend Update 80: Russia is Pressing Lots, Breaking Through Nowhere
They were half encircling Karkhiv from April to May in spring 2022 all the way through to Sept 6 before the rapid Ukrainian counteroffensive.
During that time the population of Karkhiv lived in the underground as bomb shelters most of the time because Russia was constantly shelling the ity with artillery shells. But they were not able to take the city.
Karkhiv was a key objective for Russia. If they could have taken Karkhiv it would have made it far easier to occupy large areas of EAstern Ukraine.
It is also of vital importance to Ukraine. It is how Ukraine is able to rush supplies and solders back and forth between Donbas and the border with Belgorod far faster than Russia can the long way around.
There is no way that this new advance can seriously threaten Karkhiv.
The issue is more likely the other way. If Russia commits seriously to this offensive it has to draw away good soldiers and equipment from Donbas.
Professor Phillips P. O’Brien makes this point here:
. Weekend Update 80: Russia is Pressing Lots, Breaking Through Nowhere
He shares this sketch to show how it is much harder for Russia to move soldiers and equipment from Donbase to the Russian border with Karkhiv oblast than it is for Ukraine.
His point is that yes of course they can move their soldiers through the land they occupy but they have to go the long way around and the logistics lines are worse. The Ukrainians can just drive straight through / around Karkhiv city to the border with Belgorod from Donbas
I thought I’d try out his routes with Google maps.
This will help explain, I show how long it takes for an ordinary car to drive assuming the war wasn't going on but via the Russian territory from Bakhmut which is right next to Chasiv Yar.
You can see it is more than half as long again. 7 hours and 9 minutes compared to 4 hours and 44 minutes.
This means if Russia tries to confuse the Ukrainians by rushing soldiers from Donbas to the Belgorod Ukraine border and back again, that Ukraine can rush its solders back and forth significantly faster. Of course tanks, artillery, soldier with all their gear take far longer than cars for tourists. :
Text on graphic: Why the Russian attack is most likely to be a temporary diversion
By road through Ukrainian territory 4 hours 44 mins by car.
By road through Russian occupied territory 7 hours by car (likely far slower by tank)
Merges together:
Route by road from Chasiv Yar to Vovchans'k Chasiv Yar to Vovchans'k
Route by road from Bakhmut to Vovchans'k through Russian occupied territory via Severodonetsk, Novopskov, and Novaya Tavolzhanka Bakhmut to Vovchans'k
For the Russian occupied territory, I then superimposed the ISW interactive map as it was on the 11th: Interactive Map: Russia's Invasion of Ukraine
You can try other routes but this is the shortest I can find that keeps within Russian territory - Svatove seems like it would be on a more direct route, but it is a bit of a dead end, leads to slower roads and you can't get from their to Russia easily except by crossing over into Ukrainian held territory..
Also you want to keep well back from the front line ideally.cross the border to take some villages on the Ukrainian side of the line. They tried to send tanks too but one of the tanks was destroyed on the Russian side of the border before it got into Ukraine and several others were destroyed just inside of Ukraine. Ukrainians had been preparing for this and were ready for them.
The professor’s update again here:
. Weekend Update 80: Russia is Pressing Lots, Breaking Through Nowhere
And Russia is NOT making major advances anywhere. It is still trying to take the small city of Chasiv Yar population of 13,000 in peace time.
This is how much progress it made in 4 days there from May 7 to May 11
If it can't take Chasiv Yar well within artillery range with a population of 13,000 in peace time - how is it supposed to suddenly take Karkhiv which is more than 25 kilometers away from the closest artillery with a population of 1.4 million?
Can you see? This makes NO SENSE.
This is how you can tell if it is spin or realistic. If they say something that makes no sense and say nothing to explain why it would be possible flatly against all the evidence then that is spin. The only question is why they are doing this spin.
They are not seriously attacking Karkhiv. They have just crossed over the border from Russia into Ukraine. They have no chance of getting back to Russia's position in spring 2022 when they half encircled Karkhiv.
Remember that Ukraine can't use most of the US weapons to fire over the border into the Russian side of the border which gives Russia an advantage. Even so, they destroyed some of the Russian tanks before they crossed into Ukraine. The Russian force is only between 35,000 and 50,000 soldiers and their objective may be to advance 10 kilometers towards Karkhiv.
There's a no-mans land on the Ukrainian side of the border there and the Russians drove over into it and took over part of it. Their objective may be able to get within artillery range of Karkhiv city to be able to fire shells at it as they used to do in early 2022. Also to push the Ukrainian artillery back so they can't fire at logistics lines in Belgorod oblast used to supply the war. But this will be hard even to do that right now.
Their main objective instead is most likely to just draw away some of the Ukrainian defenders from Donbas to try to make advances there before the US equipment arrives at the front line.
1. The US equipment will reach the front line in Ukraine some time in May / June.
2. Russia may be able to use this opportunity to make minor advances of a few kilometers in Donbas - they may be able to take a small city called Chasiv-yar.
3. Their chances of taking Chasiv Yar are low, Ukraine are holding them back pretty well at present.
3. There is no chance of Russia taking Karkhiv.
4. Russia need to find 300,000 extra soldiers according to the INstitute of Study of War to go back to their previous position in 2022 when they were trying to encircle Karkhiv.
5. Right now they have crossed the border north of Karkhiv but this is just a distraction to try to get Ukraine to divert soldiers away from Donbas.
6. Biden has used draw down for an extra $400 milion for extra assistance for Ukraine
This is summarizing some of the maerial in the latest ISW bulletin in this comment, details here:
Institute for the Study of War
Professor O'Brien did a weekend update saying much the same I did here. Weekend Update 80: Russia is Pressing Lots, Breaking Through Nowhere
Weekend Update 80: Russia is Pressing Lots, Breaking Through Nowhere
So, spreading the Russian forces out over an even longer front line makes them more not less vulnerable.
UPDATE
Right now what's happening is that Russia is able to adance a few kilometers into gray zone. the reason the gray zone is on the Ukrainian rather than the Russian side of the border is that the US doesn't permit the Ukrainians to use the HiMARS, ATACMS, Howitzers or Javelins etc until the Russians cross teh border.
It is now a rather absurd situation which we don't have anywhere else along the front line.
The Russians can fire artillery with a range of 25 kilometers into Ukraine from a sanctuary in Russia and the Ukrianians can't use most of their weapons back at them.
Also all except one of the tanks and vehicles was destroyed after crossing the border and most of the weapons Ukraine has against those can only be used once they cross that line.
That is why Russia can take a small region quite quickly.
As Professor Phillips P. OBrien put it today:
QUOTE Sent this out as soon as reports came in that Russians were attacking near Kharkiv. The answer to the question seems to be no. The administration is forcing Ukraine to fight and giving Russians sanctuary only miles away. It’s madness.
https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1790074165539619077
However once they are in that region they are within the range of the Ukrainian artillery because they are beyond their sanctuary in Russia.
So it is a region where they can't operate their vehicles any more once they cross that border adn so they largely fight on foot
Because of this strange situation the Ukrainians set their main fortifications a fair bit back from the border because they can't defend their fortifications or even build them easily if they buid them closer to the border.
So it is not surprising that Russia quickly takes some regions close t othe border. But it is as usual losing lots of soldiers and the regions they have taken are very unsafe for Russian soldiers.
The further they get from the border the more the balance shifts in favour of Ukraine as the further they are from their sanctuary in Russia and so the harder it is to support them.
The Institute for the Study of War is calling on the USA to remove this restriction giving Russia sanctuary in Russian territory just over the border from Ukraine.
Removing Russia’s sanctuary will degrade Russian logistics by forcing Russia to reconfigure rear support areas and logistics nodes to protect them from Ukrainian strikes. Concealing and protecting rear area assets from adversary reconnaissance and fire is a resource intensive undertaking that requires sacrifices in logistical efficiency and sustainment capability in exchange for greater operational security and force protection.
At present, the Russian military does not need to prioritize force protection in rear areas in Russia, which has permitted Russia to optimize its rear areas for logistical efficiency to push forces and materiel into Ukraine at scale. Russia’s sanctuary has also allowed Russia to deploy its limited air defense and electronic warfare assets to protect frontline troops in Ukraine, as opposed to arraying such assets inwards to protect rear areas, logistics nodes, and command points.
Eliminating Russia’s sanctuary would force Russia to make decisions about whether or how to reconfigure its rear areas, deploy protective measures, and reduce its footprint to improve protection at the expense of efficiency, likely degrading Russia’s quantitative edge in projecting men and material into Ukraine at scale. So long as Russia’s sanctuary exists, the Russian command will not have to worry about such considerations and can rest at ease knowing that Russian forces, logistics, and command points in the rear area sanctuary are categorically safe from Ukraine’s most effective rocket artillery.
More details about what happened. The Ukrainian first line of defence is 12 to 13 kilometers from the front line and the second line of defence is 20 kilometers from the front line.
Shelling makes it impossible for Ukraine to establish any fortifications within 3 to 5 kilometers of the front line.
ISW say Ukrainians have partially stabilized the situation and the Russians have advanced only 8 kilometers. That makes them 4 to 5 kilometers away from the Ukrainian first line of defence, still in the gray zone.
QUOTE STARTS
The tempo of Russian offensive operations in northern Kharkiv Oblast continues to decrease after Russian forces initially seized areas that Ukrainian officials have now confirmed were less defended. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Ukrainian military officials stated that Ukrainian forces have partially stabilized the situation in northern Kharkiv Oblast bordering Russia.
...
Kharkiv Oblast Administration officials stated on May 15 that constant Russian shelling makes it impossible for Ukrainian forces to establish fortifications within three to five kilometers of the international border in Kharkiv Oblast and that Ukrainian forces constructed the first and second lines of defense about 12 to 13 kilometers and 20 kilometers from the international border, respectively.
...ISW currently assesses that Russian forces have advanced no more than eight kilometers from the international border in northern Kharkiv Oblast. Russian forces operating in Russia could easily conduct artillery strikes against Ukrainian defensive positions close to the international border, and Western prohibitions on the use of Western-provided weapons systems for strikes against rear Russian areas across the border make potential fixed Ukrainian defensive positions close to the international border vulnerable and possibly indefensible
Russian forces have been able to make tactical advances in northern Kharkiv Oblast since May 10 in areas where Ukrainian forces purposefully did not establish significant defensive lines and currently appear to be prioritizing the creation of a "buffer zone" over a deep penetration into Kharkiv Oblast.