Sympathy for Trump likely reduces polarization for a few days - does NOT mean everyone votes for Trump - returning to the norm of John McCain’s 2008 concession speech
- how long it continues depends on how Trump reciprocates and then on Biden
For at least a few days there's likely to be more sympathy for Trump by democrats as well as undecideds and moderates.
But if that happens that moves us back to more like the previously normal situation in US politics back to say when Obama was elected in 2008.
It does NOT mean you will vote for Trump or for Biden if you have sympathy for either president.
This high level of polarization in US politics is unusual - according to a professor who was on the BBC just now talking about it, it dates back to the Tea party in 2010 and gradually increased since then.
So if we go back to 2008 that is before it started.
Here is McCain's concession speech to Obama.
He admired him and commended him and celebrated the election of an African American persident saying he achieved a great thing and called him a good man:
https://www.npr.org/2008/11/05/96631784/transcript-of-john-mccains-concession-speech
QUOTE STARTSMy friends, we have come to the end of a long journey. The American people have spoken, and they have spoken clearly. A little while ago, I had the honor of calling Sen. Barack Obama — to congratulate him on being elected the next president of the country that we both love.
In a contest as long and difficult as this campaign has been, his success alone commands my respect for his ability and perseverance. But that he managed to do so by inspiring the hopes of so many millions of Americans, who had once wrongly believed that they had little at stake or little influence in the election of an American president, is something I deeply admire and commend him for achieving.
This is an historic election, and I recognize the special significance it has for African-Americans and for the special pride that must be theirs tonight.
I've always believed that America offers opportunities to all who have the industry and will to seize it. Sen. Obama believes that, too. But we both recognize that though we have come a long way from the old injustices that once stained our nation's reputation and denied some Americans the full blessings of American citizenship, the memory of them still had the power to wound.
A century ago, President Theodore Roosevelt's invitation of Booker T. Washington to visit — to dine at the White House — was taken as an outrage in many quarters. America today is a world away from the cruel and prideful bigotry of that time. There is no better evidence of this than the election of an African-American to the presidency of the United States. Let there be no reason now for any American to fail to cherish their citizenship in this, the greatest nation on Earth.
Sen. Obama has achieved a great thing for himself and for his country. I applaud him for it, and offer my sincere sympathy that his beloved grandmother did not live to see this day — though our faith assures us she is at rest in the presence of her Creator and so very proud of the good man she helped raise.
Sen. Obama and I have had and argued our differences, and he has prevailed. No doubt many of those differences remain. These are difficult times for our country, and I pledge to him tonight to do all in my power to help him lead us through the many challenges we face.
I urge all Americans who supported me to join me in not just congratulating him, but offering our next president our goodwill and earnest effort to find ways to come together, to find the necessary compromises, to bridge our differences and help restore our prosperity, defend our security in a dangerous world, and leave our children and grandchildren a stronger, better country than we inherited.
Whatever our differences, we are fellow Americans. And please believe me when I say no association has ever meant more to me than that.
[Message to his supporters and about the campaign]
...
I don't know what more we could have done to try to win this election. I'll leave that to others to determine. Every candidate makes mistakes, and I'm sure I made my share of them. But I won't spend a moment of the future regretting what might have been.
This campaign was and will remain the great honor of my life. And my heart is filled with nothing but gratitude for the experience and to the American people for giving me a fair hearing before deciding that Sen. Obama and my old friend, Sen. Joe Biden, should have the honor of leading us for the next four years.
I would not be an American worthy of the name, should I regret a fate that has allowed me the extraordinary privilege of serving this country for a half a century. Today, I was a candidate for the highest office in the country I love so much. And tonight, I remain her servant. That is blessing enough for anyone and I thank the people of Arizona for it.
Tonight — tonight, more than any night, I hold in my heart nothing but love for this country and for all its citizens, whether they supported me or Sen. Obama, I wish Godspeed to the man who was my former opponent and will be my president.
And I call on all Americans, as I have often in this campaign, to not despair of our present difficulties but to believe always in the promise and greatness of America, because nothing is inevitable here.
Americans never quit. We never surrender. We never hide from history. We make history. Thank you, and God bless you, and God bless America.
Being sympathetic and seeing Trump as a human being is the normal situation. It is how it is done in the UK today. See Rishi Sunak's concession speech.
QUOTE STARTS
Whilst he has been my political opponent, Sir Keir Starmer will shortly become our Prime Minister.
In this job, his successes will be all our successes, and I wish him and his family well.
Whatever our disagreements in this campaign, he is a decent, public-spirited man, who I respect.
He and his family deserve the very best of our understanding, as they make the huge transition to their new lives behind this door…
…and as he grapples with this most demanding of jobs in an increasingly unstable world.
[Sorry about the "increasingly more unstable world" - I can understand the perception of that but in many ways it is also an increasingly more cooperative world working together in so many ways - it depends what you focus on - e.g. on climate change, global trade and industry e.g. renewables, reversing biodiversity loss, removal of ozone depleting chemicals, preventing famines, supporting the weaker economies, access of modern medicine in the weakest economies, global literacy etc - it is far more of that than back at the time of the cold war]
Anyway - as for Rishi Sunak and John McCain - there is no way Rishi Sunak would vote for Kier Starmer and no way that John McCain would have voted for Barrack Obama.
It does NOT mean that you will vote for Trump if you start to see him as a human being and with some good qualities and someone who if he does get elected you hope will be able to lead the USA as a good president.
It will also hopefully lead to less fear of Trump and to people voting based on the president they want to lead their country and his goals rather than based on exaggerated fears about what the other president might do.
That is what is likely to happen for at least a few days. It all rather depends on how the Republicans respond back. If they from their side also work on reducing polarization then it may become a permanent change. If not, if they try to blame Biden for instance, then this would likely NOT win votes for Trump as it will seem very off-key to the moderates and undecideds. It would more likely lose him the election.
But at present anyway it's only a minority in the Republican party that is responding like that. Probably how Trump responds in the Republic National Convention will help set the tone. He does have a good antenna for the sentiment of Republicans and it will seem very off key to make political advantage of an event that led to deaths of one of his supporters, two others in critical condition - and it is also likely a factor to moderate their response that they know that Biden has been trying to get these semi-automatic rifles banned because of their use in mass shootings. The shooter has to press the trigger again for each shot but the rifle automatically ejects the empty cartridge and loads a new one so you can fire shots far faster than with a bolt action rifle.
. AR-15–style rifle - Wikipedia
Biden had it in his manifesto to ban these weapons. They were banned from 1994 to 2004. The Democrats have tried to pass a new ban through Congress but it is a step too far for most Republicans.
. US lawmakers banned assault weapons in 1994. Why can’t they now?
With this background, it will be politically difficult for Republicans to claim that Biden is responsible for an assassination attempt through his ads attacking Trump when the assassination attempt was conducted using a type of weapon that Biden has been trying to ban and has in his manifesto to ban.
On the polarization, it's gone both ways. I've seen Democrat ads trying to connect Trump with project 2025 when Trump himself distances himself from it.
I think it will make our job here in the group far easier when they stop campaigning in that way.
But on the other side Trump has yet to say he will accept the result of the election if he is defeated. He only says he will if they are fair. He continues to support Jan 06 and this is very hard for even never Trumpers in his own party to accept.
Again that also leads to a lot of the panics we need to debunk amongst easily scared people - the way Trump seems to be rejecting the democratic process and the US constitution is why there is so much more concern amongst democrats in 2024 than there was in 2016 or even in 2020 before the election as it is only after the election results that he started this process.
This has led to a situation where Trump voters will find it very hard to support Biden, where Trump didn't give a concession speech to Biden in 2020 and didn't even attend the inauguration ceremony and left the White House early - leaving it to Mike Pence to arrange the transition to Biden.
We see that both sides are currently far away from that mutual respect of 2004.
But perhaps there is some path back? It has to come from Trump too. It can't come from Biden alone.
I expect some softening for the next few days. I don’t think Trump is likely to do a polarizing speech so soon after the assassination attempt, and after Trump supporters have been killed or injured, after a shooting by a registered Republican, and with Biden responding in such a sympathetic empathic way.
The way Biden responded is just what you’d expect of a president in this situation, but it also reminds us of what was normal back in 2008 and what is normal today in the UK at least and some other democratic countries.
But don't know if it can continue beyond then to election day. I think that would require Trump to drop his allegations that the elections in 2020 were stolen and to say that he accepts the results of the elections whoever the winner is and to be willing to do a concession speech to Biden if he loses.
That may be a step to far for him but we’ll see.
Then of course if Trump does respond in a depolarizing way it also needs Biden to respond in kind back.
I don’t know if we can go back to the way it was done in 2008. But we’ll see what happens.
See also my
LIKELY A SPUR OF A MOMENT DECISION BY A LOCAL WITH A RIFLE - MY OWN COMMENT
Pennsylvannia has open carry and they permit semi-automatic rifles. We don't know his motive yet. It is impossible to guess. From what I've read I'm not sure this incident is really to do with the polarization.
The secret service should NEVER have allowed a shooter to bear crawl on the roof of a building within 150 meters of the president. Apparently U.S. Army recruits are required to be able to hit a human sized target at that distance with all their shots. So this shooter was an amateur and not trained like a soldier.
Just a young 20 year old lad with a gun who had some strange ideas, irrational enough to risk their life to kill Trump and who saw teh opportunity and took it. And perhaps didn't even think it through enough to know he was risking his life, it would likely be a spur-of-the-moment decision. He couldn't have planned it as he couldn't know that that roof would be left uncovered by the Secret Service.
It was a crime of opportunity and I think this likely shows that whoever it was is just the same sort of person who at any other rally would have had their gun removed from them by the Secret Service before they could get this close.
It is also a local person who only had to travel 35 miles to get to the rally.
All this suggests the shooter is not important, that his motive is just random, they could be anyone, the real issue is the Secret Service lapse.
This is my own observation which I make now in the earlier debunk. Not seen anyone else say this yet. But it is kind of obvious. So I don't expect to learn much when we find out the motive.
QUOTE STARTS
The U.S. Secret Service is investigating how a gunman armed with an AR-style rifle was able to get close enough to shoot and injure former President Donald Trump at a rally Saturday in Pennsylvania, a monumental failure of one the agency's core duties.
The roof was less than 150 meters (yards) from where Trump was speaking, a distance from which a decent marksman could reasonably hit a human-sized target. For reference, 150 meters is a distance at which U.S. Army recruits must hit a scaled human-sized silhouette to qualify with the M16 assault rifle in basic training. The AR-15, like the shooter at the Trump rally had, is the semi-automatic civilian version of the military M16.
The heavily-armed counter assault team, whose Secret Service code name is "Hawkeye," is responsible for eliminating threats so that other agents can shield and take away the person they are protecting. The counter sniper team, known by the code name "Hercules," uses long-range binoculars and is equipped with sniper rifles to deal with long-range threats.
. secret-service-investigating-how-trump-shooter-was-able-to-get-so-close
That may help defuse some of the polarization.
IGNORE ALL THE CLAIMS THAT AN ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT WILL BOOST TRUMP’S SUCCESS BASED ON HISTORY - THERE IS NO SIMILAR PRECEDENT
Reagen was already president so it's not a very close parallel. Axios has a list of previous assassination attempts but none of them are close parallels. Most were presidents at the time. Looking at the ones that were presidential candidates none were close analogues. last-assassination-attempt-president-trump-shot-reagan
George C. Wallace wasn't yet a presidential candidate and gave up his bid for presidential candidate, which was going quite well, after he was paralysed from the waist down.
George Wallace - Wikipedia
Theodore Roosevelt lost his campaign for a third term after his assassination attempt (though his chance was likely low anyway because he started a new party for it splitting off from the Democrats)
. Attempted assassination of Theodore Roosevelt - Wikipedia
Franklin Roosevelt had already been elected president with a near complete sweep of all the US states and the attempt at an assassination came between his election and inauguration.
. Franklin D. Roosevelt - Wikipedia
Reagen was already president though the assassination boosted his approval ratings.
. Attempted assassination of Ronald Reagan - Wikipedia
Presidents always are popular anyway when inaugurated and Reagen was a particularly popular president..
So none of them really tell us anything about what might happen.
And anyway every situation is unique.
SOME OF THE MAIN POINTS IN THIS ARTICLE AS BULLET POINTS
The shooting does seem likely to increase sympathy for Trump. But sympathy is the norm in most elections. It is very unusual in the USA to have the degree of polarization that the US has currently. Also in other long established democracies they also have mutual respect and sympathy for their political opponents.
Just as Rishi Sunak would never vote for Kier Starmer in the UK and John McCain would never have voted for Ronald Reagen - then Democrats and many moderates and independents may have a lot of sympathy for Trump but it does NOT mean they agree with his policies or agree that he is the right person to lead the country. That is a separate thing, they might or they might not.
I also go into several reasons why Trump is NOT likely to use this opportunity to blame Biden and the Democrats. At least not right away.
Also why he can expect any attempt to do that to backfire, again at least in the next few days.
Bullet points may help for those who don’t have time to read the article.
The main points are
We don’t know the motive but it seems a crime of opportunity as he can’t have known about the lapse in security in advance - just a local lad who had a semi-automatic rifle with him and climbed on the roof in a moment of impulse - will be hard to blame that on Biden - maybe nothing to do with polarization
He used a semi-automatic rifle, the very type of weapon that Biden has been trying to get banned for his entire presidency. This will make campaigning against Biden on this topic tricky for Republicans.
Whether the attacker was a Republican or not,for sure the victims in the audience were Trump supporters near certainty. It will be seen as insensitive to use their deaths and injureis to get back at Biden
Biden has extended the olive branch here offering sympathy and empathy as you would expect from a president in this situation. - if Trump attacks back then it may get him some points amongst the far right but it is likely to seem very off key to moderates and undecideds. It might well lose him votes
So at least for a few days we likely get some relief from the polarized campaigns. Whether that continues beyond a few days depends on how Trump responds to Biden’s overtures and then how Biden in turn responds back to Trump.
BIDEN’S SYMPATHETIC RESPONSE SOON AFTER THE EVENT - SAYING EVERYONE MUST CONDEMN THE VIOLENCE
Biden responded with a speech saying there is no place for violence like this. He responded sympathetically as would be expected of a president in a time like this.
And he referred to Donald Trump as just "Donald" (without the Trump) apparently the first time he's ever done that.
He said everybody must condemn it. Then referred to him as Donald again..
Says Donald Trump is doing well.
TRANSCRIPT:
Thanks for coming folks I've been thoroughly briefed by all the agencies in the federal government as to the situation based on what we know now
I have tried to get a hold of Donald. He's with his doctors. Apparently he's doing well.
I plan on talking to them shortly I hope when I get back to the telephone.
Look there's no place in America for this kind of violence it's sick, it's one of the reasons why we have to unite this country.
We cannot allow for this to be happening we cannot be like this we cannot condone this and so and I want to thank the Secret Service and all the agency including the state agencies that have engaged in making sure that people who
And we have more detail to come relative to other injure other people maybe injured in the audience I don't have all that detail …
I may be able to come back a little later tonight but we'll put out a statement if we don't if I'm not able to give if it's not convenient for you all but the bottom line is that
The Trump rally was a rally that he should have been able to be conducted peacefully without any problem.
The idea that there's political violence or violence in America like this is just unheard of it's just not appropriate.
Everybody must condemn it, everybody.
I'll keep you informed and if I am able to speak to Donald I'll I'll let you know that as well.
So far it appears he's doing well number one number two that they're thoroughly investigating what happened to anyone else in the audience.
. President Biden Statement Following Shooting at Trump Rally
The Democrats have paused their campaign ads - since it isn't appropriate to run campaign ads against a rival who has survived an assassination attempt.
QUOTE The Biden campaign paused its communications and was working to pull down its television ads following the shooting at Donald Trump’s rally, an official said Saturday.
TRUMP’S FIRST RESPONSE
We have Trump’s first more considered reply - he doesn’t say much but he says Americans need to “stand united”. Doesn’t mention Biden but echoes some of the same ideas.
QUOTE
“ In this moment, it is more important than ever that we stand United, and show our True Character as Americans, remaining Strong and Determined, and not allowing Evil to Win.”
Suggests at least initially he is reducing polarization a little.
IN CONTEXT:
QUOTE Thank you to everyone for your thoughts and prayers yesterday, as it was God alone who prevented the unthinkable from happening. We will FEAR NOT, but instead remain resilient in our Faith and Defiant in the face of Wickedness. Our love goes out to the other victims and their families. We pray for the recovery of those who were wounded, and hold in our hearts the memory of the citizen who was so horribly killed. In this moment, it is more important than ever that we stand United, and show our True Character as Americans, remaining Strong and Determined, and not allowing Evil to Win. I truly love our Country, and love you all, and look forward to speaking to our Great Nation this week from Wisconsin.
SEE ALSO EARLIER BLOG POST
For much more see my earlier blog post:
EVERYONE - PLEASE ONLY RESPOND PUBLICLY TO THIS POST WITH SYMPATHY FOR TRUMP OR NOT AT ALL - TAKING YOUR CUE FROM BIDEN, PELOSI, OBAMA ETC.
The only appropriate thing to say about Trump after this attack is to be glad that Trump is safe - his team say he is fine and is out of hospital. He only had minor injuries to his ear and he hadn’t been hit by any other bullets.
Everyone please the only responses acceptable to this post by way of comments on Trump are the ones like Biden, Obama, Nancy Pelosi etc, thank goodness he is safe.
You don't need to feel sympathy. It is just about what you say in comments publicly here.
Just to let others say thank goodness he is safe. To let them do that.
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