The SCO is held every year and is no big deal and China’s 80th military parade is just a parade which India not surprisingly will NOT attend as it has no security relations with China

- and Putin says he reached an understanding with Trump at their Alaska summit but doesn't say what it was

The SCO summit is not a military alliance. It is about politics and economics not military arrangements. And focused on Asia. The SCO has met every year for 25 years.

The clearest example to demonstrate that it is NOT a military alliance - India as expected will NOT attend China’s 80th anniversary military parade which will be held immediately after the summit. Meanwhile North Korea’s Kim Jong Un will attend the military parade but is not in the SCO. NK is not really an ally of Russia anyway as we’ll see.

Also, none of the countries have any real security partnership with Iran - that’s obvious or they would have helped it defend itself when Israel took over its skies for 10 days.

Also it was not a meeting about Ukraine - these are Asian countries talking about topics relevant to Asia. So them not talking about Ukraine is as expected. Putin did bring it up but that’s not surprising.

Details of who attended what here.

https://apnews.com/article/china-military-parade-sco-putin-xi-kim-7d71b8ef9dc3bcc5de2ee192debd87c7

It’s an economic and political meeting a bit like the G7 etc.

Some mainstream media news is running this as scary - it is NOT. It is just another meeting of the SCO which meets every year. This is not about strategic partnerships at all.

India is not a strategic partner with China at all, even weakly - but keeps well away from any relationships with the Chinese military power

India in particular is no ally of China.

These are the strategic partners of India with the closest partners in purple. China isn't even a distant partner. India has no military relations with China and they have minor clashes in the demilitarized zone in the Himalayas.

TEXT ON GRAPHIC Closest military strategic partners of India:
Russia (score: 62)
United States (score: 58)
France (score: 51)
United Kingdom (score: 41)
Germany (score: 37)
Japan (score: 34)

China is not a strategic partner AT ALL even weakly

Countries that have a strategic relationship with India

• Closest relationship in purple

• It has no formal allies but lots of relationships

• Major exceptions: China and Pakistan

Map based on:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_relations_of_India#Strategic_partners

Made with https://www.mapchart.net/world-advanced.html

It is a strategic partner with almost everyone else that has a decent sized army except of course Pakistan.

So it is a country that straddles East and West with partners with many in Asia as well as Russia and the US and countries in Europe. And with South Africa too.

Strategic partner means a long term military relationship with shared strategic goals but not a formal alliance.

India has many strategic partners but no allies.

India is not politically in support of Russia but just doesn’t want to give the impression to its population that it is bullied by the US - so it is more of an anti-imperialism protest for India - and India as expected left before China’s military parade

Ans for the effect on the sanctions on India,

• India has no military allies but it buys military equipment from almost everywhere and has good ties with almost everyone - with the exception of Pakistan and China. It has no sharing of technology and buys nothing military from China.

By a coincidence, China’s 80th anniversary was the day after and Kim Jong Un attended for the 80th anniversary military parade although not a member of the SCO. Some of the attendees of the SCO stayed on for the military parade and some left before it.

India left before the military parade as did Egypt and Turkey.

QUOTE STARTS The leaders of India, Egypt and Turkey will leave Beijing before the military show. Egypt will be represented by a lower-level official. Like most Western countries and their allies, India and Turkey generally refrain from posing alongside China’s top leaders at military parades, which take place every few years.

Instead, joining Xi and Putin to observe Chinese troops marching in lockstep on Chang’an Avenue will be North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, who will not have attended the earlier SCO summit. This will be Kim’s first meeting with Xi in more than six years, and his first occasion to come together with a group of world leaders since the reclusive North Korean leader took office, in late 2011.

https://apnews.com/article/china-military-parade-sco-putin-xi-kim-7d71b8ef9dc3bcc5de2ee192debd87c7

India is choosing for now to continue to buy oil from Russia for political reasons, economically it makes more sense to stop that and get rid of the tariff. Yet to see how this plays out and what happens next economically.

India is also financially motivated. It's not selling anything significant to Russia but it is buying the oil at ultra low prices which is the only reason it's ever bought it since the war started.

India is different from China - it's got a history of buying a lot of military equipment from Russia.

India isn't much affected by the war. It doesn't care what happens there.

It cares about the tariffs and about the oil but the way the tariffs were imposed seems imperialist to India so it has to protest. So that’s all that is going on there. If Trump / Europe can find a way for India to save face then it would be able to stop buying the oil.

China and India both vote every year for a rapid end to nukes globally but the other nuclear powers are opposed favouring a slower process.

• China and India both vote in the UN every year for a rapid end to all nukes along with most other countries, but the other nuclear powers veto it, in favour of a slower approach

I go into this in detail here:

Why we are not at risk of a world war - moving in the other direction - more peace and stability in the larger picture and Ukraine and events in the Middle East are local conflicts

China is no ally of Russia - not a strategic partner either - China has never recognized Russia’s claim to Crimea and politically wants an end to the war - but financially it benefits so long as it isn’t sanctioned by the US

China is no ally of Russia despite the flowery language and it’s not really a strategic partner of Russia either.

• China has never recognized Crimea as part of Russia and treats it as still part of Ukraine politically and is NOT a military ally of Russia and China and Russia do NOT share sensitive military equipment with each other, and has only supplied gray area equipment during the war not missiles, or drones, or tanks etc.

• China is taking advantage of its monopoly to sell cars to Russia at several times the price in China and pocketing the difference in taxes etc. It takes financial advantage of Russia in many other ways too.

China has often said it wants peace in Ukraine. Politically it does.

China is making money by selling things to Russia but avoids selling anything that would be obviously military. It's also making money by selling Russia cars at several times the price for the same car in China and pocketing the difference as taxes.

And in many other ways.

However the amount it earns from Russia is tiny compared to its sales to the US.

China was affected during the Russian blockade on exports of Ukrainian grain. Ukraine is one of the best sources of low price wheat for China.

China also benefits from being able to charge high prices for its cars in Russia. And the grain prices no longer affected.

But politically China wants the war to end.

Especially, China never approves of invasions taking over other countries - the reason is because it has several regions with separatists movements that want to leave China. If it was to publicly say that Crimea is part of Russia that would encourage the Tibetans and the Ughyur Muslims to say "Why can't we be separate countries too?"

As in it would be saying it was okay for Crimea to leave Ukraine.

If so why can't Tibet leave China?

China has this policy of an indivisible China.

It would also cause problems with its view on Taiwan.

How can it say that Taiwan can't leave China if it says it is okay for Crimea to leave Ukraine?

So that's the political reason why China can't support Russia's invasion.

So China wants it to end politically but economically benefits so long as it isn’t sanctioned by the US.

North Korea - not in the SCO and not really an ally of China or of Russia - paper promises with China that mean little - the Russian paper promises likely just as meaningless - and sending NK soldiers to Kursk oblast was quid pro quo not really to help Russia - no shared objectives

There is nothing military going on. None of those countries in the SCO for a moment would join in on Russia's side.

The only one that has is North Korea - but that is just a quid pro quo, even if on paper it may sound like an alliance it isn’t really.

North Korea did NOT attend the SCO as it is not a member. Also Kim Jong Un rarely leaves North Korea.

North Korea is not an ally of China or of Russia really. China has a paper promise to defend NK if attacked by the US but nobody expects them to honour it.

With Russia, there is some agreement in paper with NK but again whatever’s on the paper probably doesn’t mean much. It’s more of a military exchange than an alliance.

Also even with Russia and NK I think it may be going too far to call it a strategic partnership because that is normally long term and this is very recent. It might turn into one in the future. Will be interesting to see if Russia continues with such warm relations with NK once the war in Ukraine is over and it is no longer in need of its shells, missiles and soldiers.

NK sent some troops to Kursk oblast and they got experience in a modern war - which no other NK troops have ever had. In return Russia got some extra soldiers to help liberate Sudzha.

Then NK likely also got some technology or material exchange in addition. But North Korea has no interest politically in what happens in Ukraine. And Russia has no interest politically in what happens in Korea.

Interesting suggestion - maybe Kim Jong Un trying to repair relations with China in preparation for Russia losing interest after the war ends in Ukraine

As for Kim Jong Un attending China’s 80th anniversary military parade that’s hardly surprising. It’s vrey rare for him to leave his country but this is exactly the sort of occasion he might attend.

Interesting suggestion from the BBC Seoul correspondent Jean Mackenzie, , perhaps he is trying to repair his relationship with China with an eye to the end of the Ukraine war when Russia will have much less use for North Korea.

This is what she said

TRANSCRIPT:

Stephen mentioned North Korea's leader, Kim Jong-un, who is making his way by train to Beijing. We can speak with Gene McKenzie, our Seoul correspondent, about what to expect and the significance of having the North Korean leader not just for the parade but also as an opportunity to meet with other world leaders.

This is a major moment for Kim Jong-un because it is his first trip to China in over six years, and his first time attending a gathering of world leaders. This puts him on an international stage, which is unusual for him, as he has typically preferred meeting leaders one-on-one and very selectively. He rarely leaves the country; in the past six years, the only world leader he has met is Vladimir Putin. North Korea has supported Putin's war in Ukraine by sending weapons and soldiers, reportedly receiving significant sums of money in return. The relationship with Russia has become Kim Jong-un's priority.

China remains a key ally for North Korea, traditionally providing essential food and fuel. However, ties between North Korea and Russia have increased in recent years, which has reportedly made China uneasy. Kim Jong-un's visit to China suggests he may be ready to strengthen ties with China again and recalibrate relationships, possibly with an eye toward future changes in global dynamics, such as the end of the war in Ukraine.

This event also marks the first time these three leaders—Kim Jong-un, Xi Jinping, and Vladimir Putin—will be together in the same room, as Kim has always held private meetings. Images of the three of them together will be significant for observers, and the North Koreans are likely to have carefully planned this appearance.

There is a possibility North Korea wants to send a message to the West, showing its alignment with Russia and China. Alternatively, this may be a chance to present Kim Jong-un as less of an international pariah. With his partnerships with Russia and China, North Korea may hope to project a stronger image and gain leverage, particularly in light of interest from leaders such as President Trump, who recently said he would like to talk to Kim Jong-un.

We are all watching to see what unfolds. Gene McKenzie provided context from Seoul, and before that, there was reporting from Steven McDonald in Beijing. As a reminder, China's Victory Day Military parade will take place Wednesday.

I recorded the video from the BBC and transcribed it but can’t share it publicly.

Iran is in the SCO - but though it supplied drones to Russia - when Israel took over its skies for 10 days - Russia didn’t help - nor did China - they are not in any way military allies of Iran

Iran is in the SCO but though Iran supplied the Shahed drones technology to Russia - it has played very little role since then. Putin did not come to Iran’s help when Israel established a no fly zone over Iran for 10 days of bombing. So it is very clear Iran is not in any alliance with Putin. Or China. China didn’t help either.

See my

You are safe after US strike on Iran - it can't start a world war - nobody will support Iran - Iran can't do anything - less risk than Trump's 2018 attack on Syria's chemical weapons factory

also

Putin says he reached an understanding with Trump at Alaska but gives no details

The only news of relevance to Ukraine is Putin's remark about reaching an understanding with Trump which suggest s that he did agree something with Trump as Trump also has said but what it is we don't know yet.

What Putin said is very brief:

QUOTE STARTS

In this context, we highly value the efforts and proposals of China, India and other strategic partners aimed at facilitating a settlement of the Ukrainian crisis.

I would note that the understandings reached at the recent Russian-US summit in Alaska, I hope, are also moving in this direction, paving the way towards peace in Ukraine.

During the bilateral meetings scheduled for today and tomorrow, I will, of course, provide colleagues with more detailed information on the results of the talks in Alaska.

http://www.en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/77891

Trump said that it included an agreement in principle to Ukrainian security guarantees and to meet to talk 1 to 1 with Zelensky followed up by a trilateral with Trump.

Putin is just not commenting on that aspect of it. He doesn't claim that Trump was lying. Putin just refuses to tell us what he agreed with Trump. Which is not surprising for secret negotiations.

Putin’s speech was just the usual rehash of history claiming a coup in 2014 when it was a president overthrown by parliament following democratic process after widespread protests when the president refused to sign the pro Europe agreement passed by parliament and instead signed a separate pro Russia agreement that parliament did NOT approve

Putin’s speech just rehashed the same talking points he’s used for the last decade. He claims the Euromaiden protest in Ukraine was a coup d’etat.

QUOTE STARTS

Taking this opportunity, I would like to say that Russia adheres to the same approaches with regard to the crisis around Ukraine. Let me remind you that this crisis did not arise from Russia attacking Ukraine, but from a coup d’etat in Ukraine, supported and provoked by the West, followed by attempts to use military force to suppress the regions and people of Ukraine who rejected and did not accept that coup.

The second reason for the crisis lies in the West’s constant efforts to draw Ukraine into NATO, which, as we have repeatedly and consistently stressed over many years, represents a direct threat to Russia’s security.

It is worth recalling that as a result of the 2014 coup in Ukraine, the country’s political leadership that opposed NATO membership was removed from power [NOT THE LEADERSHIP JUST THE PRESIDENT WHO CHANGED HIS VIEWS UNDER PRESSURE FROM RUSSIA AND WENT AGAINST THE WISHES OF HIS OWN PARLIAMENT AND THE PEOPLE].

http://www.en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/77891

Putin is referring there to the incident in 2014 when Russia used pressure on the Ukrainian president to attempt to turn Ukraine into a vassal state like Belarus.

It worked for Belarus. But not for Ukraine.

The Ukrainian president was forced to resign as a result of the Euromaiden protests in Ukraine. It's nothing new and nothing to do with the Ukraine war.

What happened is that

• the Ukrainian parliament overwhelmingly voted to sign an agreement for closer relations with Europe.

• * But Ukraine’s then president Yanukovych responded to pressure from Russia to refuse to sign it

• Instead, against the wishes of his own parliament and his people, president Yanukovych signed an agreement for closer relations with Russia.

That led to protests throughout Ukraine.

As a result of the protests, president Yanukovych signed an agreement for an interim unity government, constitutional reform and early elections.

Yanukovych fled Ukraine that evening, 21st February 2014.

It wasn’t a military coup. It was a case of a president resigning in response to public pressure and the pressure of the parliament of Ukraine.

There are many different views on what happened. But it led to an interim government, election reform and a newly elected pro Europe government.

Ukraine’s president had to resign and after reform under an interim unity government, they elected a new pro Europe president.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Euromaidan

Russia then took over Crimea soon after very quickly while Ukraine was disorganized.

Try the Wikipedia article for the closest you’ll likely get to a neutral account, there are many views on it. But it wasn’t in any way a military coup.

It was a change of government and president as a result of protests and democratic processes.

‘Further in the future - slow transition to a more multi-polar world with Asia, Latin America, even Sub Saharan Africa may eventually become economically far more important

What’s going on in the SCO is more about economics and politics as we transition to a more multipolar world. One where the US, Russia and Europe may eventually, over decades, play a far less prominent role .

TEXT ON GRAPHIC

Emerging multipolar world for second half of this century

North America - decreasing
Europe - decreasing
Russia - decreasing and far less than Soviet Union
East Asia - increasing
South Asia - increasing
Southeast Asia - increasing
Sub-Saharan Africa - increasing
Latin America - increasing

Possible future world powers: US, Western Europe, Russia, China, Indonesia, Nigeria, Brazil, Mexico, India
May lead to a more equitable fairer world long term. Fairer for: medicines, agriculture, energy technology...

GeoCurrents Map

Insert on left side:
Emerging markets will dominate the world's top 10 economies in 2050 (GDP at PPPs):

2016 2050
China 1 China
US 2 India
India 3 US
Japan 4 Indonesia
Germany 5 Brazil
Russia 6 Russia
Brazil 7 Mexico
Indonesia 8 Japan
UK 9 Germany
France 10 UK

G7 economies
E7 economies

Insert on lower right:
Vietnam, the Philippines and Nigeria could make the greatest moves up the rankings

2050 2016
Vietnam 20th up 12 places 32nd
Philippines 19th up 9 places 28th
Nigeria 14th up 8 places 22nd

Average annual GDP growth rate, 2016-2050
Vietnam: 5.1%
Philippines: 4.3%
Nigeria: 4.2%

Source: PWC staff estimates, GDP at PPP projections to 2050

But the would not be replaced by China as that would be unipolar. Instead replaced by

• India

• China

• Brazil, Mexico and latin America generally

• Indonesia

• Maybe at some point countries from sub Saharan Africa too as it gradually begins to become more developed - it has vast riches of various sorts and could be an economic powerhouse.

• Western Europe

• US

• Security council likely remains US, UK, France, Russia and China with veto power. over UN security resolutions

This is one projection for 2050

From: The World in 2050

. Five superpowers ruling the world in 2050

See my:

BLOG: As the US reduces its sphere of influence many other countries will take its place
— India, Mexico and Brazil for instance
You can read it here: https://debunkingdoomsday.quora.com/As-the-US-reduces-its-sphere-of-influence-many-other-countries-will-take-its-place-India-Mexico-and-Brazil-for-instan

I think a multi-polar world is better myself 🙂.

US will remain a significant power no matter what, and Europe also both diminishing in influence.

Unless it is somehow changed, the UK, France, US, Russia and China will continue to have veto power in the UN security council. With other countries rotating in and out and without veto power.

But economically - Brazil / Mexico Latin America and India - and I expect also Nigeria and other African countries later this century - I think it will lead to a fairer world.

Some things have been very unfair like access to vaccines, and also access to the Green Revolution technology for Africa, and so on. I'm hopeful a multi-polar world will be more equitable.

Example of boosting of weaker economies - Green Belt project in Africa

Right now we have the Green Belt project in Africa

TEXT ON GRAPHIC: Just 5000 years ago the Sahara was savannah with giraffes grazing - recorded in this rock art - this happens in a cycle every 26,000 years.

The Sahara is very fertile if you add water - but the desert spreads south - African great green wall stops that and makes parts of it greener.

Ancient rock art in Tadrart Acacus in Libya in the Acacus Mountains - Wikipedia

BLOG: Deserts + water = good soil often - Sahara desert was grassland 5000 years ago due to Earth’s axial precession - and will be in the future - but we can make it somewhat greener right now - Great Green wall

https://debunkingdoomsday.quora.com/Deserts-water-good-soil-often-Sahara-desert-was-grassland-5000-years-ago-due-to-Earth-s-axial-precession-and-wil

Africa's industrial revolution is coming late but it has the advantage that ti can build it as renewables based from the beginning.

Can expand on this section. The green funding every year for weaker economies to boost their renewables, help them reverse biodiversity a year and so on will benefit the entire world - and also boost their economies for a future more equitable world.

This is powered to a large extent by the COPs to help stop and reverse global warming.

Another example is how we saved chocolate during the pandemic.

Cacao trees - needed for chocolate

• Grow in tropical conditions
• Labour intensive (very)
• Ten years from planting to first crops

• Need shade of larger trees
• Most grown by small farmers (25 acres or less)

Image from: 2012 cocoa bean output

Details of cacao farming: CHCOLATE AND CACAO CULTIVATION AND HARVESTING

We faced the prospect of chocolate becoming a rare and expensive treat for up to 10 years. The cacao trees are grown by small farmers with 25 acres or less and so the world came together during the pandemic with urgent funding to save their farms.

That saved chocolate and it also boosted the local economies for Cacao farmers.

BLOG: How we saved chocolate during the pandemic and how we are building in climate resilience to cacao farming
You can read it here: https://debunkingdoomsday.quora.com/How-we-saved-chocolate-during-the-pandemic-and-how-we-are-building-in-climate-resilience-to-cacao-farming

There are many examples like that. In our modern so interconnected world it helps everyone to boost the weaker economies.

That in turn will lead to a future with the weaker economies stronger and playing a larger role in global politics and economics, potentially reinforcing a fairer more equitable multi-polar world.

Expanded version of this with many more examples including the boost in medical technology and access to vaccines globally after the pandemic:

Many organizations in the world similar to the SCO for just about every country in the world

There are many such organizations for other regions of the world.

African Union https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/African_Union

South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Asian_Association_for_Regional_Cooperation

And of course SCO

Shanghai Cooperation Organization https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shanghai_Cooperation_Organisation

Caribbean community https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caribbean_Community

Mercosaur https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mercosur

Organization of American states https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Organization_of_American_States

Union for the Mediterranean https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Union_for_the_Mediterranean

Pacific Islands Forum https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pacific_Islands_Forum

And many others. This is just a selection.

I got Perplexity AI to help me find these. It’s the sort of thing a chatbot can do quite well.

https://www.perplexity.ai/search/similar-organizations-to-the-s-cHnFJa5.SxiKKrbDgjeP.w

SEE ALSO

Zapod military drills in September a nothingburger - every 2 years - this year only 13,000 soldiers including the 8000 from Belarus that never saw combat - and how beavers help protect Kyiv

also

SEE ALSO

Why Putin will never use nukes

It NEVER makes sense for Russia to use nukes EVER.

And this explains why we do NOT risk a world war at all from any of these news stories.

CONTACT ME VIA PM OR ON FACEBOOK OR EMAIL

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I often write them up as “short debunks”

See Latest short debunks for new short debunks

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. doomsdaydebunks.bsky.social

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TIPS FOR DEALING WITH DOOMSDAY FEARS

If suicidal or helping someone suicidal see my:

BLOG: Supporting someone who is suicidal

If you have got scared by any of this, health professionals can help. Many of those affected do get help and find it makes a big difference.

They can’t do fact checking, don’t expect that of them. But they can do a huge amount to help with the panic, anxiety, maladaptive responses to fear and so on.

Also do remember that therapy is not like physical medicine. The only way a therapist can diagnose or indeed treat you is by talking to you and listening to you. If this dialogue isn’t working for whatever reason do remember you can always ask to change to another therapist and it doesn’t reflect badly on your current therapist to do this.

Also check out my Seven tips for dealing with doomsday fears based on things that help those scared, including a section about ways that health professionals can help you.

I know that sadly many of the people we help can’t access therapy for one reason or another - usually long waiting lists or the costs.

There is much you can do to help yourself. As well as those seven tips, see my:

BLOG: Doing what matters at times of stress
— new WHO booklet to help with mental health during COVID19 pandemic

BLOG: Breathe in and out slowly and deeply and other ways to calm a panic attack

BLOG: Tips from CBT
— might help some of you to deal with doomsday anxieties

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