Only swing states matter - everyone - ignore all other results unless they say it’s a surprise result - Harris needs 30 points from swing states - Trump needs 52 points from swing states
This map may help - it all depends on these swing states which are very clos
e
.
TEXT ON GRAPHIC:
These are likely the ONLY states that matter unless other states are declared as flips.
Voting is very close - seems the polls were accurate that it is very close.
Harris needs 30 points from swing states to win e.g. PA + AZ
Trump needs 52 points from swing states to win e.g. PA + AZ + NC e.g. PA + AZ
Voting is very close - seems the polls were accurate that it is very close
Some of the other states could be at risk on either side but these are the most likely.
To experiment go to "build your projection"
. 2024 Presidential Election Polls
This doesn't mean she is more likely to win than Trump. But the results are so very close that it could easily be either Trump or Harris winning ALL the closest battleground states with less than a 2% shift either way.
Of course other states can also flip especially the ones shown light pink or light blue in that map - but these are currently the closest ones.
And as you can see even Florida, Trump's home state, is not completely out of play as a light pink left leaning state.
Out of 1000 simulated elections, Ractothe WH has 500 for Harris, 498 for Trump and 2 for a tie
. Predictions for the 2024 Presidential Elections - Live Forecast — Race to the WH
538 has 530 wins for Trump and 470 wins for Harris - doesn't give a number for ties.
. Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election?
Either way about half the time Harris wins and half the time Trump does.
538 puts it like this:
QUOTE A close race in the polls does not necessarily mean the outcome will be close. All seven swing states are still within a normal polling error of going to the candidate who is currently “losing”in each. While the polls have identified a close race, our model shows what you should expect if those polls are off.
Easiest path for Harris to win back the blue wall, and Trump has to get at least one state in the blue wall if he only wins toss-up states
You will often hear talk of the “Blue Wall” on election night. This is what it refers to:
TEXT ON GRAPHIC: Blue wall - consistently won by Democrats from 1992 to 2012
Bush won in 2000 with states outside the wall.
Trump won Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and one seat in Maine in 2016.
Biden won back all except the Maine seat in 2020
Easiest path for both candidates:
Harris easiest way,
to hold the “Blue Wall states”: Pennsylvania, Virginia, Wisconsin
That gives 29 votes already and if she gets anything else e.g. the one seat in Maine she’s there
From this we see that Trump has to get a state in the Blue Wall to win. If he only gets the Maine seat it’s a tie so he needs more than that to win.
If she loses all of Pennsylvania, Virginia, Wisconsin, as Clinton did in 2016, the alternative route is:
Nevada (flip), Arizona, and either Georgia and North Carolina (fli
p
)
Then there are other ways that are mixes of the two..
Trump easiest way:
Pennsylvania (blue wall), North Carolina and Georgia then he needs one other vote
.
If he loses Pennsylvania, he needs
Michigan and Wisconsin (blue wall).
If he only gets Michigan in the blue wall he needs Arizona and Nevada
If he only gets Wisconsin in the blue wall he needs Arizona.
Here is the result if Wisconsin is the only blue wall state Trump gets
.
You can follow on NBC news here:
Video: NBC 2024 Election night coverage
And map here:
. 2024 Presidential Election: News, Polls and More
See also
Text on graphic: THE STATUE OF LIBERTY IS IN ANTARCTICA! Parody
NONSENSE: And if Trump is elected you will HAVE to have the same views as him on EVERYTHING! Found on TikTok
More NONSENSE from TikTok!
There are many mischievous, confused and silly people on the internet teaching you nonsense.
Graphic made using Dall-E
Note to any readers who have been convinced by the FALSE rhetoric on trans by people who are NOT medical professionals
Trans kids often need help with extreme levels of anxiety as they approach puberty due to a brain trapped in a body that is not the right gender for it. It is too late to use puberty blockers once they have already completed the transition to an adult body. Puberty blockers give their brain time to catch up with their body if they are amongst the lucky ones that get back in sync. If this doesn't happen they can then transition fully as an adult.
Scientists say this and medical professionals unanimously say that this is the only way to handle people who are genuinely trans who exprerience extraordinary levels of distress if they are not permitted to use puberty blockers.
It is very cruel to block access to puberty blockers to trans kids who need them - obviously after careful medical professional testing.
A few decades from now current atttitudes of many to trans will seem like medieval science.
Short summary of the science at 8 minutes into this video, as summarized by a trans woman based on the Scientific American article.
See again:
YES THERE IS A VERY SMALL ADVANTAGE FOR A TRANSWOMAN ATHLETE IN SOME SPORTS, ESPECIALLY RUNNING, THAT REMAINS EVEN AFTER HORMONE THERAPY - BUT NOT ENOUGH TO TURN AN ORDINARY ATHLETE INTO AN ELITE ATHLETE - FOR MOST SPORTS THERE IS NO ADVANTAGE
It is far more nuanced than other things because there is some scientific evidence for a small advantage in some sports.
There is NO WAY that the US should be regulate the participation of trans athletes in womens' sports at the school level country wide. For SOME SPORTS mainly atheltics, especially running it IS appropriate at the top of the league for some sports associations to have regulations on it.
But even in running, a small trans woman athlete who is similar in size to a biologically woman athlete has no advantage over women (after gender affirmation therapy)
Will add this to the article.
Note to any readers who have been convinced by the FALSE rhetoric on trans by people who are NOT medical professionals
Trans kids often need help with extreme levels of anxiety as they approach puberty due to a brain trapped in a body that is not the right gender for it. It is too late to use puberty blockers once they have already completed the transition to an adult body. Puberty blockers give their brain time to catch up with their body if they are amongst the lucky ones that get back in sync. If this doesn't happen they can then transition fully as an adult.
Scientists say this and medical professionals unanimously say that this is the only way to handle people who are genuinely trans who exprerience extraordinary levels of distress if they are not permitted to use puberty blockers.
It is very cruel to block access to puberty blockers to trans kids who need them - obviously after careful medical professional testing.
A few decades from now current atttitudes of many to trans will seem like medieval science.
Short summary of the science at 8 minutes into this video, as summarized by a trans woman based on the Scientific American article.
See again:
BLOG: Yes some people really are biologically trans or biologically gender fluid - may be XX males - XY females - intersex - have sexual organs that change gender as they mature - and minds and brains out of sync with their bodily gender
YES THERE IS A VERY SMALL ADVANTAGE FOR A TRANSWOMAN ATHLETE IN SOME SPORTS, ESPECIALLY RUNNING, THAT REMAINS EVEN AFTER HORMONE THERAPY - BUT NOT ENOUGH TO TURN AN ORDINARY ATHLETE INTO AN ELITE ATHLETE - FOR MOST SPORTS THERE IS NO ADVANTAGE
It is far more nuanced than other things because there is some scientific evidence for a small advantage in some sports.
There is NO WAY that the US should be regulate the participation of trans athletes in womens' sports at the school level country wide. For SOME SPORTS mainly atheltics, especially running it IS appropriate at the top of the league for some sports associations to have regulations on it.
But even in running, a small trans woman athlete who is similar in size to a biologically woman athlete has no advantage over women (after gender affirmation therapy)
After tonight the Democratic Party (my party) must rethink many of its policies as it ponders its future.
To have a chance at victory Democrats should try listening to the concerns of the working class for a change. As a lifelong moderate Democrat I share their distain for many of the insane positions advocated by my party.
Democrat politicians defy biology by believing that men can actually become women and belong in women’s sports, rest rooms, locker rooms and prisons and that children should be mutilated in pursuit of the impossible.
They believe borders should be open to millions of illegals which undermines workers’ wages and the affordability of housing when we can’t house our own citizens.
They discriminate against whites, Asians and men in a vain effort to counter past discrimination against others and undermine our economy by abandoning merit selection of students and employees.
Democratic mayors allow homelessness to destroy our beautiful cities because they won't say no to destructive behavior. No you can’t camp in this city. No you can’t shit in our streets No you can’t shoot up and leave your used needles everywhere. Many of our prosecutors will not take action against shoplifting unless a $1000 of goods are stolen leading to gangs destroying retail stores. They release criminals without bond to rob and murder again.
The average voter knows this is happening and outright reject our party. Enough.