AfD can't govern in Germany - nobody else will join them in a coalition - CDU / CSU likely to be largest party in any coalition

The AfD can't govern even if they were the largest party because Germany has coalition governments and none of the other parties would go into a coalition with AfD. There is no way it gets a majority by itself.

TEXT ON GRAPHIC: None of the parties will enter into coalition with AfD.

So AfD can’t be in government.

For illustrative purposes

Possible coalitions as of polling on 10th Jan / Guardian

Grand Coalition.
Black-Green
Jamaica
Traffic light.

. The Guardian

From DW

QUOTE STARTS

The AfD is currently polling at around 19% ahead of the German federal election in February, second only to the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) at around 33%.

But all the other parties currently in the German parliament have ruled out forming a coalition with them.

. German politicians criticize Musk backing for far-right AfD

It’s far to early to say much about what the winning coalition will be like. For what it’s worth, the Economist has three coalitions all of them with the Green party as one of the elements of the coalition.

Even if the AfD could be in a coalition there is no way they'd be the only party. They'd be one of several but with nobody willing to partner with them that means they can't govern.

It looks as if the right leaning CDU are likely to be part of any coalition from the early polling.

With this projection, if the FDP fails to reach 5% the Black-Green coalition then reaches the majority, while if FDP reaches 5% they don’t quite get there, even if Linke also fail

TEXT ON GRAPHIC:.If FDP fails to reach 5%.

. The Guardian

The CDU / CSU are likely to be the largest party in any winning coalition.

However this doesn’t mean that all their policies will be adopted.

They can only enter into a coalition with a more left leaning party given that AfD is the main party to the right of them.

TEXT ON GRAPHIC

Illustrative as of 12th Jan. 2024

Can’t happen - CDU won’t join AfD

. PolitPro

The CDU want to restrict asylum seeking but wouldn’t be permitted to do so under EU law.

Among other measures, the CDU is now calling for a tighter asylum policy and a de facto freeze on asylum admissions at the border. These policies may be difficult to implement, as European-wide rules imposed under the Geneva Convention say that EU countries have an obligation to examine asylum applications once an applicant is on European soil.

…

The CDU manifesto also proposes abolishing subsidiary protection for asylum seekers, which is also enshrined in European law under the Geneva Convention.

…

The party says it wants the law changed at the European level, a move that would see Germany join a rightward shift on migration and asylum policy that has swept across the EU's member states.

. German election: CDU manifesto proposes rightward shift on migration and strong support for Ukraine

When AfD had a surprisingly strong showing in East Germany in August earlier this year in Thuringa, Maetz reiterated that the CDU will not enter into a coalition with AfD.

"Our word stands. We will not do it," Merz said. He called the AfD an extreme right wing party, and said that this was not just the view of the CDU at the national level, but of all its state chapters as well.

. Germany: In Thuringia, Merz repeats CDU won't ally with AfD

On the Ukraine war they want to supply the German Taurus missiles to Ukraine.

The CDU has hammered home its support for Ukraine, including continued arms deliveries, and Merz is promoting himself as even more hawkish on Russia than Scholz, saying he would potentially allow the embattled country to use Taurus missiles to strike targets within Russia — something the outgoing chancellor has flatly refused.

Then it also proposes changes on taxes and changes to Germany’s benefits system.

German election: CDU manifesto proposes rightward shift on migration and strong support for Ukraine

Why the AfD surged in Germany - government problems, immigration and the economy - not a rise in far right values

TEXT ON GRAPHIC: AfD rising but at 19.3% well below peak on 23 Jan 2024 of 22.1%

No other party will enter into coalition with them.

Support for them is temporary based on other issues such as immigration and not on far right policies.

. The Guardian

As an example, the right wing party, the AfD surged in Germany early this year, not because of its far right beliefs but because of

• government problems.

• Immigration issues- Issues with inflation

• budget crisis and issues with the economy

There I’m summarizing one of the paragraphs towards the end of this Washington Post article.

. germany-far-right-alternative-for-germany-afd-reckoning-protest-future

It’s not based on right wing ideology. The far right in the AfD started talking about illegally deporting vast numbers of immigrants from Germany. Though this could never happen, that they talked about it at all got many people in Germany out protesting against the AfD.

. Hundreds of thousands protest against far right in Germany

So we shouldn’t interpret the AfD vote as a far right vote really.

As for a fascist government, Germany has strong laws to prevent a fascist government ever again with the “Basic Law” built in that ensures a level of human rights and democracy.

I go into that here

BLOG: Why Germany can’t become a fascist country
— “Basic Law” prevents it
— and what they are doing about gas crisis

SEE ALSO

I talk about why people in the EU voted for the far right in the recent elections here:

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