Asteroid 2024 YR4 is a nothingburger - likely removed from risk list - or deflected - or splosh in ocean - or worst case - need to evacuate one village, or city - similar to hurricane in affected area
It is a nothingburger, expect it to be removed from the risk list as they continue to observe it, last observations from James Webb Space Telescope in May. On remote chance of a hit you are safe, nobody will die as we will know and can evacuate in plenty of time on the remote chance it hits a remote village, or even a city.
We likely get hit by an asteroid like this every few thousand years. Plus we can deflect it by redirecting launches of telecoms satellites if we need to in 2028 when it comes back in sight.
[Skip to Contents or you can click on the vertical column of dashes to the left on a laptop]
UPDATE: As of May 28, it’s down to 1 chance in 890,000 for a hit - or as a percentage 0.0001125%.
UPDATE: As of early March it’s down to 1 in 120,000 or as a percentage 0.0008188%. https://robertinventor.online/booklets/sentry_table_simplified.htm?object=2024%20YR4 . Most recent observation on 1st March.
However, the James Webb telescope which can see a very small patch of the sky much further away will observe it again in March (to estimate size) and in May (for final observation before it moves out of sight).
The last impact like this was in 1908. in Tunguska, which only affected a minute areas of forest in a remote part of Siberia. But it is most likely a 1 in a thousand years type impact so the chance we get one this century is low.
TEXT ON GRAPHIC
Your personal risk from a meteorite is minute
Far less than the risk from lightning or even the very small risk of death by hailstone.
This tiny dot is about the size of the area where trees were blown down by the 50m Tunguska asteroid in 1908.
An asteroid is most likely to splosh harmlessly in an ocean.
The asteroid itself was about 500 to 1000 times smaller lthan that dot.
The impact was here in 1908
What it looked like on the ground.
Three reindeer herders died and a herd of reindeer.
Even on the 1% chance 2024 YR4 remains in the risk list and can't be deflected
- nobody dies if they listen to warnings.
- we would warn them to avoid the area before the impact
- which we'd know to the minute and to within 100 meters.
Earth gets hit by an impact this size every several thousand years.
None has ever hit a city in all recorded history.
By far the most likely effect is a harmless splosh in the oceans.
Back then we had no way to predict it and it killed three reindeer herders and a herd of reindeer and flattened a large area of remote forest.
Area of flattened trees for Tunguska enlarged.
It's like a - miniature hurricane - happens only every few thousand years - can be predicted to the minute and within 100 meters - unlike a hurricane it can also be deflected away from Earth - or shifted in position by firing spaceships at it.
TEXT ON GRAPHIC
Tunguska meteorite killed 3 reindeer herders in 1908
- Happens every few thousand years
- similar effect to a large hurricane
- caused by a 50 meter diameter asteroid
- For asteroids we are tracking, we can predict when the "hurricane" happens to the minute
- By 6 days before the impact it comes into radar range and we know WHERE it happens to within 100 meters
- 2 days is enough time to evacuate for hurricane
- With a few years warning we can PREVENT IT
- Only 1% of Earth's surface is urban, expected wait time for 50 meter asteroid to hit urban area of 100s of thousands of years.
We get hit by an asteroid this size every few thousand years.
Background photo by Leonid Kulik, leader of the first scientific expedition to Tunguska, from . Divers to Explore Possible Crater of Siberia's Famous Tunguska Meteor » Explorersweb
It's a small asteroid no matter what happens, less destructive than most hurricanes - and one that can't move.
If it does hit, it’s like a miniature hurricane, pinpointed to a single spot which would most likely be in the oceans or if not expect it in deserts, ice sheets, forests, grasslands, highly unlikely to be urban.
Contents
Expect calculated risk to go up before it is removed - if it is removed
Almost all asteroids already found at one kilometer plus - and all at around 3.5 km plus
No NASA wouldn’t hide warnings of an asteroid or comet - and can’t
Expect calculated risk to go up before it is removed - if it is removed
It means nothing if the calculated risk goes up. This often happens, until finally suddenly it drops to zero. This graphic explains why based on a video from ESA.
In that hypothetical example the calculated risk based on the information so far goes from 9 times more likely to miss than to hit all the way up to 4 times more likely to miss than to hit. But it still was far more likely to miss than to hit so it’s no surprise that finally we calculate the chance to be zero. Which means the chance always was zero from the outset in that hypothetical example, but we didn’t know that based on the information we had at that point.
The asteroid’s path doesn’t change as we do those calculations. We most likely find it never was going ot hit. It’s just our knowledge of the asteroid’s orbit increases.
The red line here is the part that crosses the Earth in that hypothetical example.
This isn’t a path of the asteroid - it’s rather where all the different points of virtual impactors can hit Earth - the line continues of Earth into space to either side and most likely it misses.
TEXT ON GRAPHIC:
2024 YR4 Impact risk corridor
Lagos population 21 million - worth sacrificing a half dozen telecom satellite launches to deflect away.
- exceedingly remote chance headed for an urban area
- small % chance that 2024 YR4 hits somewhere along this track - effect like a fixed point miniature hurricane pinpointed to within 100 meters 6 days in advance
- but most likely removed from list and can be deflected
Graphic from Sky and Telescope post here https://skyandtelescope.org/astronomy-news/newly-discovered-asteroid-has-slight-chance-of-earth-impact-in-2032/
This is what happened in reality
Shows 2024 YR4's uncertainty region as calculated on January 27 and 31, and February 5, 10, 18, 19, 20, and 23 of 2025.
https://blogs.nasa.gov/planetarydefense/author/mlwasser/
We may not know if it will hit by end of April. But we will know when we next see it in 2028 or if we find prediscovery observations. Those with near certainty will remove it from the list but if it remains in the list then we never need to worry about it because we are tracking it closely, have ways we could deflect it, and far better and earlier warning than for a hurricane so that nobody would die who listens to the instructions.
It could be challenging on the very remote chance it’s headed for Lagos population 21 million. That’s a large population to evaocuate even given 6 days of warning. We could have far more warning if we send a spacecraft to it however to pinpoint the track precisely.
Also, as we’ll see we can also deflect it on that remote possibility.
Similar in size to the Tunguska meteroite which hit in 1908 and killed 3 reindeer herders and a herd of reindeer - with plenty of warning their lives could have been saved
The Tunguska event was in a remote area of Siberia and only the people nearby even saw it.
https://www.nasa.gov/history/115-years-ago-the-tunguska-asteroid-impact-event/
This on 2024 YR4 is near certain to be removed.
QUOTE STARTS
EarthSky spoke with the inventor of the Torino scale, Richard Binzel of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, who said:
In all likelihood, this object will fall to Torino Scale 1 and then 0; or directly fall to 0 with more measurements.
If it does hit it's similar in damage to a hurricane except its most likely to hit over the oceans as most of the Earth's surface is ocean. That then is just a big splash.
If it hit on land the main effect would be shattered windows unless it landed right on a city. Remember that as for a hurricane, everyone has plenty of time to evacuate the region.
TEXT ON GRAPHIC What happens if a 50 m asteroid hits New York City.
We know where it hits precisely by 6 days in advance through radar measurements.
Effect like a small hurricane.
Happened before in Tunguska in 1908 and 3 reindeer herders died because we didn’t know in advance back then.
Rare event, may happen sooner but most likely won’t happen again for a thousand years or more.
Nobody dies if they follow instructions to leave the area.
We know exactly when it happens to the minute years in advance.
Glass windows damaged over the blue region.
Too small to calculate a crater size because it’s likely most of it breaks up before it reaches the ground.
8 million times smaller in volume than the dinosaur asteroid.
Graphic shows calculated impact effects with location set to New York City for 2024 YR4.
Zoom in to show the region where glass windows shatter
45 degree impact with a 55 meter asteroids
15 degree impact with a 55 meter asteroids
This shows the effect of a vertical impact (worst case) with a 55 meter asteroids.
100 meters diameter with vertical impact (worst case)
This graphic doesn’t show the outermost 1 kPa region where glass windows are only damaged and not shattered.
At this size there’s a small crater
You can try other angles, sizes and locations here, based on the actual parameters for 2024 YR4
There might well be small craters for the 55 meter asteroid too, it’s just hard to model at that size.
Largest possible size if very dark - around 213 meters - still about different levels of hurricane damage
The most likely range of sizes is 50 to 90 km. If it was very dark, 0.01 then it would be 213 meters in diameter.
That may not seem a big difference but that's 5 times less massive than a 370 meter diameter asteroid. It's all still about different sizes of hurricane level damage too. Nobody would notice unless within the small affected region.
My page lets you calculate the diameter from the albedo, You can set it to 1% for the largest possible.
https://robertinventor.online/booklets/sentry_table_simplified.htm?object=2024%20YR4#calc_diam
NASA plan to use the JWST to observe it. They will do two observing runs. One is in early March when it's at its brightest when it first comes into view for the JWST.
That’s the best time to estimate its size by photographing in infrared. Then another observation in May to help refine the orbit - which will be the last observation until 2028.
QUOTE The first round of observations will take place in early March, just as the asteroid becomes observable by Webb and is at its brightest. The second round of observations will take place in May. Astronomers will use these later observations to study how the temperature of 2024 YR4 has changed as it has moved further away from the Sun and to provide the final measurements of the asteroid’s orbit until it returns into view in 2028.
That is unless we launch other space telescopes to look for it - and at the same time to look for other asteroids. We could launch small space telescopes for tens to hundreds of millions of dollars.
Almost all asteroids already found at one kilometer plus - and all at around 3.5 km plus
We know all the ones of 10 km or larger, the size of the one that ended the dinosaur era. We likely know all the smaller ones down to 3.5 km at least. We know almost all at 1 km which is a thousandth of the size and roughly a thousandth of the damage of the dinosaur era one. There is only one left in the list at that size and it has a remote chance for 2880 expected to miss.
We likely have to wait hundreds of thousands of years for the next one - the last one was 700,000 years ago, half a million years before modern humans evolved and it's as like as not a similar length of time to the next one at that size. Which of course didn't make primitive apes our precursors extinct.
But it's pretty certain we are in another mllennia with no 1 km asteroids, which is no surprise given how rare they are.
At 1 km an asteroid has major effects locally but globally it produces a thin dust cloud that would impact on crops in a minor way.
Below 1 km it has no effects globally so 1 km is at the boundary between some minor effects and no effects. .
As it goes down to Apophis sized - that's 300 meters, that's about 37 times smaller in mass and destructive power than a 1 km asteroid. At that size it is far more like a rather large hurricane. We only know most of the asteroids at 300 m plus but not all of them.
We know only a fraction of the ones below Apophis sized.
Also we know how to deflect these asteroids with a warning time of just a year and six months. With 2024 YR4 we would have four years to deflect it, from 2028 to 2032.
These are the figures for 2024
TEXT ON GRAPHIC: Asteroid risk is like a risk of one extra hurricane on average every few thousand years - but one we can even prevent - or predict exactly well in advance
We know
- all near Earth objects at 10 km plus: 4 asteroids and 4 comets - none can hit for thousands of years
- almost all at 1 km plus, only one left in list 1950 DA expected to miss in 2880
- not surprising that we most likely are in another millenium with no 1 km asteroids
- most in range 300 m to 1 km - last at 1 km size was half a million years before humans evolved
- leaves hurricane sized asteroids as the main risk group now
- long period comets are extraordinarily rare - last one was Lexell’s comet passed 6 times distance to Moon in 1770.
- as for a hurricane, nobody dies so long as they heed warnings
Like a hurricane ew can predict to within 100 meters at least 6 days in advance.
We can deflect an asteroid through to 300 meters with two years warning by repurposing launches of telecommunications satellites.https://www.esa.int/ESA_Multimedia/Images/2018/06/Asteroid_danger_explained
More details see my:
Also
BLOG: We are safe from big asteroids
Rewriting NY Times clickbait story to be more accurate
So now let’s rewrite a falsely scary story from the New York times.
QUOTE (NY TIMES MAKING IT SEEM AS SCARY AS POSSIBLE WITHOUT OUTRIGHT LYING) The object’s current odds of striking Earth may sound scary — and it’s fair to say that an asteroid in this size range has the potential to cause harm. Should it strike a city, the damage would not cause anything close to a mass extinction, but the damage to the city itself would be catastrophic.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/29/science/asteroid-2024-yr4-earth.html
Let’s rewrite this to be accurate
MORE ACCURATE REWRITE:
This object is virtually certain to miss and can also be diverted. It is like a miniature hurricane in the level of damage if it hit. Most likely to splosh in the ocean or in a remote desert.
On the very very remote chance it hits a city like New York, nobody dies as long as they heed warnings given at least 6 days in advance probably longer. It wouldn't cause major damage over most of the city. It could damage or destroy buildings at the epicenter. It would shatter windows over part of the city - damage them out to well beyond the city boundaries. Glaziers would be kept busy and the broken glass would need to be swept up. Whether there is more damage than that would depend on the angle of impact and whether it is a solid iron meteorite or the far more likely loosely held together rubble pile.
Also please ignore any mention of megatons of energy released in stories. The megatons isn't an important figure. That is because most of the energy of a smaller asteroid like that is released in the upper atmosphere.
For people who are standing nearby, it would be brighter than the sun as it enters the atmosphere. But the main risk is just of damaging your eyes by looking at it.
It has no radioactivity and not nearly as destructive as the megatons figure suggests. At this size especially if it is the most usual rubble pile, it won't even make a crater, and the main effect is of shattered glass in glass windows if it hits near a city. It has a larger effect if it happens to hit from directly above rather than skimming through the atmosphere sideways before it hits.
We can’t deflect hurricanes - but we can deflect an asteroid with short notice - by repurposing launches of large telecommunications satellites into asteroid deflectors
Remember on the low chance it is still in the risk list in 2028 and we can't remove it before 2032 that we can likely at least deflect it away from a major city on the very remote chance it's headed for an urban area - and nobody will die because there would be lots of warning, more even than for a hurricane warning and more precise.,
We can't deflect hurricanes. We can't stop tsunamis and we can't stop earthquakes or eruptions. But if we have plenty of warning we can evacuate the region.
On the still unlikely chance 2024 YR4 hits it most likely is like a miniature hurricane fixed somewhere in the Pacific ocean or in forests or deserts or pasture and we just warn sailers, or local people to avoid the area at the time. Or if it is focused on a populated area we evacuate it.
On the unlikely chance that it's headed for a major city we could consider deflecting it away from that city.
It takes a fair while to prepare a new mission It might take as long as a decade but SpaceX does numerous launches every year and it might be able to just launch falcon heavies or a Starship repurposing existing missions to deflect the asteroid instead.
Also, ESA has a solution:
The trick is that though it takes a long time to prepare a satellite for launch, every year we launch 10 to 15 huge muti-ton telecommunications satellites to geostationary orbits - where they orbit Earth once a day to keep over the same spot all the time. That's called Geostationary Earth Orbit.
This requires us to launch them up to that orbit and then in a separate circulation burn turn it into a circular orbit. If you do that burn in the opposite direction you can send it off into interplanetary space to intercept an asteroid.
With six months preparation the manufacturers could change those into asteroid interceptors and replace the second circularization boost into one that has the opposite effect, that boosts it even more to reach the asteroid instead.
That’s enough to deflect a 300 meter asteroid.
European space company Airbus said:
QUOTE "The bottleneck [for the success of such a mission] will be the rockets," Falke said. "We think we could expect about 10 to 15 launches available within one month around the entire globe."
https://www.space.com/asteroid-deflection-with-telecommunication-satellites
So, FastKD repurposes 10 to 15 GEO satellites into kinetic deflectors.
can all launch within one month
mission could be got together within six months.
Replaces GTO to GEO circularizing boost by outward boost to intercept asteroid.
![Large satellites used for TV broadcasting could be quickly and easily repurposed as asteroid deflectors
...
Fast Kinetic Deflection (FastKD), was commissioned by the European Space Agency (ESA)
...
These satellites are usually very large, like a small bus. They might weigh 4 to 6 tons, which would give them enough force to affect the trajectory of an approaching space rock.
Still, as Albert Falke, who led the FastKD study at Airbus, told Space.com, it would require maybe 10 such spacecraft hitting a 1,000-foot-wide (300 meters) asteroid within a short period of time to sufficiently change its trajectory to avoid the planet.
"These telecommunication platforms, in addition to being large and heavy, are also built with quite a high frequency," Falke said. "That means we can expect them to be available readily in the integration facilities [of satellite manufacturers]. That's something we can take for granted."
In 2019, for example, 15 geostationary satellites were ordered by commerci](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!7c-6!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F393b13a5-7b8e-4055-b237-94cea92a5f0c_840x1020.jpeg "Large satellites used for TV broadcasting could be quickly and easily repurposed as asteroid deflectors
...
Fast Kinetic Deflection (FastKD), was commissioned by the European Space Agency (ESA)
...
These satellites are usually very large, like a small bus. They might weigh 4 to 6 tons, which would give them enough force to affect the trajectory of an approaching space rock.
Still, as Albert Falke, who led the FastKD study at Airbus, told Space.com, it would require maybe 10 such spacecraft hitting a 1,000-foot-wide (300 meters) asteroid within a short period of time to sufficiently change its trajectory to avoid the planet.
\"These telecommunication platforms, in addition to being large and heavy, are also built with quite a high frequency,\" Falke said. \"That means we can expect them to be available readily in the integration facilities [of satellite manufacturers]. That's something we can take for granted.\"
In 2019, for example, 15 geostationary satellites were ordered by commerci")
TEXT ON GRAPHIC:
Large satellites used for TV broadcasting could be quickly and easily repurposed as asteroid deflectors
...
Fast Kinetic Deflection (FastKD), was commissioned by the European Space Agency (ESA)
...
These satellites are usually very large, like a small bus. They might weigh 4 to 6 tons, which would give them enough force to affect the trajectory of an approaching space rock.
Still, as Albert Falke, who led the FastKD study at Airbus, told Space.com, it would require maybe 10 such spacecraft hitting a 1,000-foot-wide (300 meters) asteroid within a short period of time to sufficiently change its trajectory to avoid the planet.
"These telecommunication platforms, in addition to being large and heavy, are also built with quite a high frequency," Falke said. "That means we can expect them to be available readily in the integration facilities [of satellite manufacturers]. That's something we can take for granted."
In 2019, for example, 15 geostationary satellites were ordered by commercial satellite operators worldwide, according to SpaceNews.https://www.space.com/asteroid-deflection-with-telecommunication-satellites
The study found that we could get the deflectors to the asteroid in a year and 7 months after we first realize it’s needed, that includes 2 months for the political decision to do this - we have 4 years from 2028 to 2032:
That is for an asteroid that’s most likely 170 times heavier than 2024 YR4 if it is 54 meters in diameter (300^3/54^3) and even if 2024 YR4 is right up at the top of its possible range (extremely dark) at 213 meters it is nearly 3 times heavier and so would need a third of the number of satellites for the same amount of deflection.
And remember that we may not need to deflect it to miss Earth. As the deflectors approach the asteroid their observations would give us a very precise orbit and we could just nudge it to miss a city on the remote chanc eit is headed for a city - and deflect it towards an ocean, the Indian ocean, Atlantic or Pacific in the case of 2024 YR4.
Only 1% of Earth’s surface is urban - so whatever size of asteroid hits Earth every 100 years - only one of those hits an urban area every 10,000 years
Let’s look at the size of asteroid that hits every 100 years, whatever that is. Probably less than 50 meters across.
Only 1% of Earth's surface is urban. Every few thousand years we are hit by an asteroid large enough to flatten a city - about similar in damage to a large hurricane but all focused on one point. If we are tracking an asteroid this size even if we can't deflect it, we'll know exactly where it hits to within 100 meters at least 6 days before, as soon as it comes within radar range of Earth - and that's plenty of time to evacuate as we can evacuate for a hurricane in 2 days.
But only 1 in 100 of those will hit an urban area so we have an expected wait time of order of hundreds of thousands of years for an asteroid with hurricane level of damage hitting a city. It could happen this century but extraordinarily unlikely.
We can use the same graphic for once per century impacts over the next 10,000 years and once per millenium impacts over the next 100,000 years.
TEXT ON GRAPHIC
Forests: 9
Crops:3
Ice sheets or tundra:6
Oceans:71
Grassland: 7
Urban or semi-urban:1
Deserts: 4Tunguska size 50 meter asteroids in 100s of 1000s of years
Or Chenlyabinsk sized 20 meter impacts over 10,000 years
Breaking down into more detail:
TEXT ON GRAPHIC:
Pacific:30
Atlantic:20
Indian ocean:14
Southern ocean:4
Arctic ocean:3
Antarctica:3
Polar ice and tundra:3
Sahara desert:2
Other deserts:1
Forests:9
Grassland:7
Crops:3
Urban or semi-urban:1
If a small asteroid hits us every century then it would be on average 10,000 years between impacts on urban areas. If it is more often, every 50 years then it would be 5,000 years. Either way, it’s no surprise we have no records of an asteroid hitting a city in recorded history. It may never have happened in the entire time when humans have had cities and urban areas.
They expect to remove it from the list. But on the unlikely possibility that it doesn't get removed, we also would potentially have time to deflect it.
If we can't deflect it either, we will know exactly when it hits to within less than a minute far in advance, and 6 days before we'd also know exactly where to within 100 meters.
On the unlikely case that it is also headed for land and for an urban area, everyone needs to evacuate that region.
On the more likely case that it is headed for a remote place in the sea, deserts etc they need to be careful not to travel to or through the exact poit of impact at the time of impact.
For more details see:
BLOG: Did you know, NASA have NEVER issued any ASTEROID ALERT
— most likely future warning: Tiny Asteroid to Splosh Harmlessly in Pacific Ocean
BLOG: A 50 meter asteroid is like a very rare type of hurricane that happens every few thousand years
— that we can predict to the minute and within 100 meters
— and that we can also stop given enough time
It will remain in view to our most sensitive large telescopes for several more months. That could be enough to show it can’t hit in 2032.
However it is flying in an almost straight line away from Earth which makes it harder to pin down its trajectory for 2032.
If they haven’t removed it from the risk list later this year then it will remain in the risk list until 2028 when they will be able to observe it again. That would give us 4 years to prepare if it is going to hit Earth.
The calculated risk of impact often goes up with more observations before finally suddenly it’s removed from the risk list. This graphic explains why based on a video by ESA.
This is what the European Space Agency say
QUOTE STARTS
The European Space Agency (ESA) Planetary Defence Office is closely monitoring the recently discovered asteroid 2024 YR4, which has a very small chance of impacting Earth in 2032.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 has an almost 99% chance of safely passing Earth on 22 December 2032, but a possible impact cannot yet be entirely ruled out.
The asteroid is estimated to be between 40 m and 100 m wide.
It is too early to determine where exactly on Earth a potential impact could occur.
Two UN-endorsed international asteroid response groups are considering their next steps.
As our asteroid survey technology improves, we are likely to detect an increasing number of objects passing close to Earth that we would have missed in the past.
…
Asteroid 2024 YR4 is now rated at Level 3 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale: a close encounter that warrants attention from astronomers and the public. It is important to remember that an asteroid’s impact probability often rises at first before quickly dropping to zero after additional observations. For an explanation of why this happens, see the video below:
This graphic is made up from slides from that video:
QUOTE STARTS
What happens next?
Asteroid 2024 YR4 is estimated to likely be larger than 50 m and has an impact probability higher than 1% at a point in time within the next 50 years. It therefore meets all of the criteria necessary to activate the two UN-endorsed asteroid reaction groups: the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) and the Space Mission Planning Advisory Group (SMPAG).
The International Asteroid Warning Network
IAWN, chaired by NASA, is responsible for coordinating the international group of organisations involved in asteroid tracking and characterisation. If appropriate, IAWN would develop a strategy to assist world governments in the analysis of asteroid impact consequences and in the planning of any necessary mitigation responses.
… It is currently moving away from Earth in almost a straight line, making it difficult to accurately determine its orbit by studying how its trajectory curves over time.
Over the next few months, the asteroid will begin to fade out of view from Earth. During this time, ESA will coordinate observations of the asteroid with increasingly powerful telescopes, culminating in the use of the European Southern Observatory’s Very Large Telescope in Chile, to gather as much data as possible.
It is possible that asteroid 2024 YR4 will fade from view before we are able to entirely rule out any chance of impact in 2032. In this case, the asteroid will likely remain on ESA’s risk list until it becomes observable again in 2028.
The Space Mission Planning Advisory Group
SMPAG, chaired by ESA, is responsible for facilitating the international exchange of information, developing opportunities for collaborative research and missions, and conducting near-Earth object threat mitigation planning activities related to asteroid 2024 YR4.
The Group will convene at its existing planned meeting in Vienna next week to determine its next steps. If the asteroid’s impact probability remains above the 1% threshold, SMPAG will provide recommendations to the UN and may begin to evaluate the different options for a spacecraft-based response to the potential hazard.
By a spacecraft-based response that means a mission to deflect it with impactors.
They could also send a spacecraft to look at it during the time when it is hidden from view from Earth if important enough, flying past or else perhaps also in an orbit designed to help plug gaps like this in our observations of asteroids and with this as one of many targets to look for.
If it is still in the impact list and for some reason we can’t deflect in time - we get the equivalent of a very predictable miniature hurricane
On that remote 1 in 100 chance that it is still in the impact list in 2028 and we can’t deflect it in time, that’s then when you get the possibility of an impact, most likely in the ocean.
They could also deflect it just slightly - this takes care in case it deflects from one country to another, but for instance, suppose it was headed for New York a small deflection to land in the Atlantic a few kilometers East of New York wouldn’t harm anyone and would be far easier to do than a larger deflection to miss Earth altogether.
On the remote chance they can’t deflect it then it’s like a predictable very precisely located small hurricane.
Anyone who heeds the warning will be safe in that remote case. It would only affect one place in the entire world - more localized than a hurricane which can sometimes affect multiple places because it moves.
TEXT ON GRAPHIC
Vastly improbable scenario
Impact prediction 6 days before impact
100 km region to evacuate
We can evacuate for a hurricane in 2 days.
Not real - exercise
Image from 2021 PDC Exercise Fact Sheet: Final
See:
BLOG: NASA simulation 2021 PDC was NOT REAL
— like a fire drill has no fire
— and vastly improbable
— and still
— a scenario where nobody dies like a rare and unusual hurricane
— message is to increase surveillance to find these objects quickly
On asteroids generally:
Never need to worry about meteor showers
You never need to worry about any kind of meteor shower, they are regular every year and they have small shooting stars, sometimes fireballs. They are made up of small dust and debris, often from asteroids or comets yes but the original bodies of the well known meteorite showers are all known and are in orbits that are not any risk to Earth.
Most are from comets and you won't even find meteorites, in theory you can get meteorites from taurids or geminids but in practice none have ever been found.
https://science.nasa.gov/solar-system/meteors-meteorites/facts/
NASA's Near Earth Asteroid and Comet Warnings (if any)
This is my non techy version of the CNEOS sentry table as of Jan 30:
Expect that yellow one most likely to be removed as they get more observations.
Most likely we need to wait thousands to hundreds of thousands of years before we need to protect a city from an asteroid
This graphic can help you see how extremely unlikely it is that we need to protect one of our cities from an asteroid.
It is not impossible. There is enough potential to look out for them on the remote possibility we do need protection this century.
It could happen but we will have on average thousands of years of tsumamis, hurricanes, wild fires, volcanic eruptions, tornadoes, flooding etc for every asteroid impact we need to protect against.
TEXT ON GRAPHIC
Suppose ancient Egyptians had asteroid detection telescopes
They would still be waiting for the first asteroid to hit a city
Most likely thousands of years to the next one
Individual risk far less than lightning or even the very rare death from a hailstone
Combines photo of Kheops-Pyramid with one of the two Keck ten meter telescopes Linked Hawaiian Telescopes Catch a Nova Surprise
(I know the top of a pyramid in Egypt is hardly the best place for a telescope, this is just for visual effect to show the idea). They were only a few key insights away from the industrial revolution in some ways. It's a not impossible alternative history :).
You are very safe - far less risk even than from lightning or the very rare risk of death from a giant hailstone
Also
BLOG: We are safe from big asteroids
BLOG: No asteroid flyby could ever produce noticeable tides
Anything cosmological.
BLOG: You are safe from: black holes, rogue stars or planets, supernovae, our sun, gamma ray bursts, big asteroids, comets and anything cosmological
NON TECHY VERSION OF NASA’S TABLE
No NASA wouldn’t hide warnings of an asteroid comet - and can’t
Astronomers are completely open about asteroids, it is all done in the open, shared observations, shared predictions, very public. It is like weather forecasting. No weather forecaster would ever hide news of a hurricane - it’s their job to warn us of them. They would be out of their job the next day if they did such a stupid thing, and I am pretty sure no weather forecaster in the entire history of weather forecasting has ever hidden news of a hurricane prediction. In the same way no astronomer would ever hide news of an asteroid impact, and they can’t do it either.
Here is NASA astronomer Dr. Michelle Thaller answering this common FAQ from the public:
Transcript here: Would scientists tell us about a looming apocalypse?
The answer is “Yes, of course they would”.
CONTACT ME VIA PM OR ON FACEBOOK OR EMAIL
If you need to talk to me about something it is often far better to do so via private / direct messaging because Quora often fails to notify me of comment replies.
You can Direct Message my profile (then More >> messages). Or better, email me at support@robertinventor.com
Or best of all Direct Message me on Facebook if you are okay joining Facebook. My Facebook profile is here:. Robert Walker I usually get Facebook messages much faster than on the other platforms as I spend most of my day there.
FOR MORE HELP
To find a debunk see: List of articles in my Debunking Doomsday blog to date See also my Short debunks
Scared and want a story debunked? Post to our Facebook group. Please look over the group rules before posting or commenting as they help the group to run smoothly
Facebook group Doomsday Debunked
Also do join our facebook group if you can help with fact checking or to help scared people who are panicking.
SEARCH LIST OF DEBUNKS
You can search by title and there’s also an option to search the content of the blog using a google search.
CLICK HERE TO SEARCH: List of articles in my Debunking Doomsday blog to date
NEW SHORT DEBUNKS
I do many more fact checks and debunks on our facebook group than I could ever write up as blog posts. They are shorter and less polished but there is a good chance you may find a short debunk for some recent concern.
See Latest short debunks for new short debunks
I also do tweets about them. I also tweet the debunks and short debunks to my Blue Sky page here:
Then on the Doomsday Debunked wiki, see my Short Debunks page which is a single page of all the earlier short debunks in one page.
I do the short debunks more often but they are less polished - they are copies of my longer replies to scared people in the Facebook group.rough Ukraine and will do so no matter what its allies do to support Ukraine.
TIPS FOR DEALING WITH DOOMSDAY FEARS
If suicidal or helping someone suicidal see my:
BLOG: Supporting someone who is suicidal
If you have got scared by any of this, health professionals can help. Many of those affected do get help and find it makes a big difference.
They can’t do fact checking, don’t expect that of them. But they can do a huge amount to help with the panic, anxiety, maladaptive responses to fear and so on.
Also do remember that therapy is not like physical medicine. The only way a therapist can diagnose or indeed treat you is by talking to you and listening to you. If this dialogue isn’t working for whatever reason do remember you can always ask to change to another therapist and it doesn’t reflect badly on your current therapist to do this.
Also check out my Seven tips for dealing with doomsday fears based on things that help those scared, including a section about ways that health professionals can help you.
I know that sadly many of the people we help can’t access therapy for one reason or another - usually long waiting lists or the costs.
There is much you can do to help yourself. As well as those seven tips, see my:
BLOG: Breathe in and out slowly and deeply and other ways to calm a panic attack
BLOG: Tips from CBT
— might help some of you to deal with doomsday anxieties