Joe Biden dropped out as candidate and endorsed Kamala Harris as successor - would only do if sure Harris can win against Trump
- Harris sure to have similar manifesto to Biden with centrist vice president
The way Biden stepped down is very good and carefully thought through. He has nominated Harris. So far the party is coming together behind this decision.
Right now it looks likely that it will be a smooth transition. She is sure to choose a centrist vice president which will broaden her appeal.
Both sides will have to change their campaign as it is a very different campaign with Trump against Harris.
TWEET: My fellow Democrats, I have decided not to accept the nomination and to focus all my energies on my duties as President for the remainder of my term. My very first decision as the party nominee in 2020 was to pick Kamala Harris as my Vice President. And it’s been the best decision I’ve made. Today I want to offer my full support and endorsement for Kamala to be the nominee of our party this year. Democrats — it’s time to come together and beat Trump. Let’s do this.
This is what everyone expected. The funding can be transferred very easily to Kamala Harris and Joe Biden can just ask all his electors to vote for Kamala Harris.
He asked his team to explain to him how a different candidate could win the election. They must have been able to show him how someone else can win before he could make this decision.
. Joe Biden ends re-election campaign
Biden has the right to release his electors to another candidate under the rules of the Democrat primaries. He won 99% of the electors. It is likely to be an uncomplicated process so long as the electors do vote for his nominee. As for Kamala Harris, her big choice now is her running mate. She is likely to choose someone with name recognition and who has broad appeal to centrist democrats.
A good VP pick will allay people's concerns and help keep her on track. A vice president is also the president of the Senate and is the president's liaison officer with Congress essentially. So it may well be a senator like Biden was.
I give the example here of Mark Kelly, an astronaut and senator from Arizona (a swing state) as just one example of many suggestions of who she could choose as running mate to broaden her appeal. The first black woman president and the first astronaut vice president might have a fair bit of appeal.
There are many other suggestions.
Here is Biden’s letter where he says he won’t stand as candidate
.
Original statement:
Joe Biden (@JoeBiden) on X
You can read the letter in full here as text for those who speak other languages and use auto translate:
. Read President Joe Biden's full letter announcing he's leaving 2024 race
The background here is that Biden asked those asking him to step down to explain how Kamala Harris could win. She does do better than Biden in the polls but only by a few percent.
However
Trump hasn’t yet adjusted the Republican campaign to target Harris
Harris similarly has not adjusted the Democrat campaign to target Trump with Harris
It’s going to be a very different campaign both ways going forwards.
She will surely run on the same manifesto as Biden which has been so successful in his first term.
She has plus points as potentially the first woman and the first black woman president.
So, Kamala Harris appeals to
Black voters
women
Those are both central constituencies for the election.
Kamala Harris has an Indian-born mother and Jamaican-born father who divorced when she was 5.
. Who is Kamala Harris, the VP who Biden is backing for president?
It will make a big difference who she chooses as running mate.
Here are some proposals for her vice president candidate.
One interesting suggestion there is Mark Kelly who would be the first astronaut vice president if selected and has name recognition in the USA.
This is not to say that Mark Kelly will be the vice president. One issue is that he is a senator and he won re-election in 2022 which means that he has another 4 years left in the Senate, and they might worry about losing the seat to Republicans. On the other hand he would help them to win Arizona an important swing state for the election for president.
He is one of many suggestions but since many know who he is, it is an easy way to give you some idea of how the voter base can broaden with a new vice president candidate.
.
The history of elections in the USA suggest it likely favours the younger candidate.
Now, Rs are locked into a nominee who's 78, while Harris is 59.
Dave Wasserman who is chief editor for the non partisan Cook report says that a younger candidates is favoured in previous elections:
Recent 10+ yr age gaps between major nominees have favored (two) younger Dems:
2012: Obama (51) def. Romney (65)
2008: Obama (47) def. McCain (72)
1996: Clinton (50) def. Dole (73)
1992: Clinton (46) def. Bush (68)
Legally, Biden as the nominee has relinquished his electors as he is allowed and he has given them freedom to choose as they wish.
Biden will continue as president to the end of his term. He does NOT have cognitive issues just verbal slips.
It could be done via a virtual vote.
If Joe Biden’s delegates decide they want to follow Biden’s direction and vote for Kamala Harris then the situation will be very clear and straightforward.
That would lead to a perception of a consensus.
If not, then it might lead to an open convention which the Democrats will try to avoid as parties do better if they are seen as acting together.
The way that Joe Biden has done this however, deciding from his own side to step down, and endorsing Kamala Harris, will encourage Democrats to come together. They may do so relatively quickly now.
ENOUGH TIME TO UPDATE THE BALLOTS
This is early enough for all the states.
Ohio was the earliest. But they changed the date to September 1st.
Dates of them all here:
. If a presidential nominee drops out, what happens to states’ ballots? • Iowa Capital Dispatch
OPPORTUNITY FOR ENDORSEMENTS OF HARRIS WHILE PRAISING BIDEN FOR HIS SERVICE AND HIS SELFLESSNESS AS THEY COME TOGETHER
Also his decision to stand down gives the democrats an opportunity to praise Biden and endorse Harris.
Elizabeth Warren’s statement:
Joe Biden’s presidency has been transformational. He accomplished more in the past four years — to bring back jobs, stand up to big corporations, and build an economy that works for all of us — than we have been able to get done in the last forty. He deserves full credit for beating Donald Trump in 2020, and his selfless decision today gives us our best shot at doing it again in 2024.
While Donald Trump tried to tear down our democracy to maintain his grip on power, Joe Biden willingly stepped aside in order to protect our democracy. President Biden’s selfless action is a profound gift to the people of the United States — and it’s on all of us not to waste it.
I endorse Kamala Harris for President. She is a proven fighter who has been a national leader in safeguarding consumers and protecting access to abortion. As a former prosecutor, she can press a forceful case against allowing Donald Trump to regain the White House. We have many talented people in our party, but Vice President Harris is the person who was chosen by the voters to succeed Joe Biden if needed. She can unite our party, take on Donald Trump, and win in November.
Nancy Pelosi’s statement:
President Joe Biden is a patriotic American who has always put our country first. His legacy of vision, values and leadership make him one of the most consequential Presidents in American history. With love and gratitude to President Biden for always believing in the promise of America and giving people the opportunity to reach their fulfillment. God blessed America with Joe Biden’s greatness and goodness.
Barrack Obama’s statement:
Through his policies and his example, Joe has reminded us of who we are at our best — a country committed to old-fashioned values like trust and honesty, kindness and hard work; a country that believes in democracy, rule of law, and accountability; a country that insists that everyone, no matter who they are, has a voice and deserves a chance at a better life.
This outstanding track record gave President Biden every right to run for re-election and finish the job he started. Joe understands better than anyone the stakes in this election — how everything he has fought for throughout his life, and everything that the Democratic Party stands for, will be at risk if we allow Donald Trump back in the White House and give Republicans control of Congress.
I also know Joe has never backed down from a fight. For him to look at the political landscape and decide that he should pass the torch to a new nominee is surely one of the toughest in his life. But I know he wouldn’t make this decision unless he believed it was right for America. It’s a testament to Joe Biden’s love of country — and a historic example of a genuine public servant once again putting the interests of the American people ahead of his own that future generations of leaders will do well to follow.
We will be navigating uncharted waters in the days ahead. But I have extraordinary confidence that the leaders of our party will be able to create a process from which an outstanding nominee emerges. I believe that Joe Biden’s vision of a generous, prosperous, and united America that provides opportunity for everyone will be on full display at the Democratic Convention in August. And I expect that every single one of us are prepared to carry that message of hope and progress forward into November and beyond.
EARLY INDICATOR THAT DEMOCRATS ARE ENERGIZED BY THIS CHANGE - SMALL DONATIONS FLOODING IN TO ACTBLUE WITH NEARLY $50 MILLION DONATIONS IN 7 HOURS AFTER BIDEN’S ANNOUNCEMENT
From the way Democrats are responding it does not seem to be a worry for Democrats to replace Biden by Harris.
As an early indicator that he is right, Act Blue which receives small donations for Democrat candidates announced that it received nearly $50 million dollars in a bit over 7 hours since the announcement, the most they have received in one day in 2024.
The US is very different from the UK as you may know. In the UK funding is of little importance, except for the small parties. In the UK, the larger parties had plenty of funding, but the Green party only had enough funding to campaign properly for four seats.
Well in the USA the cost is far greater, to get ads to 300 million people and with minimal limits on funds (only limits on the amounts per donor for funds candidates can use directly).
So funding is very important for their elections and the Democrats had several weeks of low funding. This has turned around immediately since Biden's announcement which has energized donors.
QUOTE UPDATE: As of 9pm ET, grassroots supporters have raised $46.7 million through ActBlue following Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign launch. This has been the biggest fundraising day of the 2024 cycle. Small-dollar donors are fired up and ready to take on this election 🔥ActBlue (@actblue) on X
There’s a graph of their donations here
from: Michael McDonough (@M_McDonough) on X
They have hit around $86 million in the 24 hours since Biden said he was stepping out. Screenshots of the Act Blue tracker for the last 24 hours
They were running at around $10 million a day and they received $100 million less $4 million for Sunday through to when Biden said he’d resign so it’s $96 million roughly or $86 million more than the average for the previous few days. And the total for the Sunday after the announcement is $68 million - $4 million or about $64 million and the total is about $58 million more than the average on that day, or possibly more given that it was a Sunday which might have had lower contributions.
As the page says this isn’t all for Kamala Harris some will be for other Democrat candidates boosted by the announcement.
It is just based on the number at the top of the Act Blue website of the total raised since 2004 for Democratic candidates and progressive causes.
. Billions raised online since 2004
But the Kamala Harris team also has given figures and it seems nearly all were for her.
They say that in 24 hours:
$81 million raised
over 888,000 grassroots donors contributed
60% of those donors made their first contribution of the 2024 cycle.
43,000 people committed as new recurring donors — over half of whom will be making weekly donations
. kamala-harris-record-81-million-24-hours
Details here
. Christian Datoc (@TocRadio) on X
Since then it’s continued at well above the previous daily totals.
Biden is a very experienced campaigner and this is a carefully thought through step.
QUOTE STARTS
“The floodgates will open,” Chris Korge, finance chair for the Biden Victory Fund, told NBC News. “There’s been a lot of people holding back contributions that will now contribute because the whole thing — that whole situation was paralyzing our fundraising.”
Korge said he was getting calls all day from major donors who were moved by Biden’s decision. Some even cried, he said.
“People are emotional because they knew how hard it was to make this decision after doing an incredible job,” Korge said. “Major donors are incredibly receptive of his endorsement and are genuinely excited. I think this is going to create a tidal wave of donations.”
On Sunday, ActBlue posted news of the money flow on its X account. Some of that money is going to other Democratic groups and campaigns, but Harris' ascension was the catalyst — and her campaign was most likely the overwhelming beneficiary.
“Small-dollar donors raise over $27.5 million on ActBlue in the first 5 hours of Vice President Kamala Harris’ presidential campaign,” the post on X said. “Grassroots supporters are energized and excited to support her as the Democratic nominee.”
Hours later, ActBlue posted again to update that its daily total had ballooned to $46.7 million.
It's among the biggest fundraising days ever for ActBlue. It announced this year that in the first quarter, donors gave over $460 million through the platform — a little over $5 million a day on average.
The development comes after weeks of catastrophic fundraising across Biden re-election efforts. Since the June 27 debate, big donors had cut off funding, saying they didn’t think Biden had a path. And it wasn't just wealthy contributors: Grassroots funding had substantially diminished, too. Sources close to the campaign said that at the same time the campaign needed to scale up to take on former President Donald Trump, the spigot had shut off considerably, leaving them in an unenviable position.
. 'The floodgates will open': Democratic donors energized by Kamala Harris' run
PREVIOUS EXAMPLES OF PRESIDENTS WHO DIDN’T STAND FOR A SECOND TERM
This is a very unusual decision. James K. Polk just decided one term is enough he said he’d only serve for one term when elected
The more recent examples are both of vice presidents who became president after their president died and decided not to run for election.
Lyndon B. Johnson who became president after Kennedy was assassinated resigned on March 31, 1968 during the Vietnam war
. Biden’s departure makes history, but 2 other sitting presidents cut it close to Election Day
Harry Truman decided to stand down on March 29, 1952 after his second term - he became president when Franklin Roosevelt died in office
“I shall not be a candidate for reelection. I have served my country long, and I think efficiently and honestly. I shall not accept a renomination. I do not feel that it is my duty to spend another four years in the White House.”
. Biden’s departure makes history, but 2 other sitting presidents cut it close to Election Day
There Truman had an option to apply for a third term because of a clause in the 22nd amendment that set the limit to two terms:
But this Article shall not apply to any person holding the office of President when this Article was proposed by the Congress, and shall not prevent any person who may be holding the office of President, or acting as President, during the term within which this Article becomes operative from holding the office of President or acting as President during the remainder of such term.
WHAT ABOUT LITCHMAN’S 13 KEYS FOR THE WHITE HOUSE?
Alan Litchman said that Harris is the one candidate who would have the same incumbency key as Biden if Biden resigned from office.
QUOTE STARTS
Here's what he should do to preserve the keys and keep the Democratsbest chances for election alive.
He should say for the good of the country I am making the ultimate sacrifice.
I am stepping down from the presidency then Kamela Harris would become president and they would secure the incumbency key and he could then release all of his delegates to Harris to secure the
contest key.That's the only situation under which the Democrats would not
start out some Keys deficit with only 4 months left before election day.. YouTube
For the background see:
. The Keys to the White House - Wikipedia
Biden hasn’t resigned from office but he has resigned his candidacy for the election which is rather similar.
Litchtman posted on Twitter saying that if the Democrats unite swiftly then they retain the no contest key.
QUOTE Biden has dropped out. But the Democrats could still salvage the contest key if they unite behind Harris!
Wikipedia has a section on the keys and has already updated them based on Joe Biden's resignation. Lichtman says Kamala Harris loses the incumbency key but if Democrats unite behind Harris they retain the no primary contest key. The claim is that 8 keys need to be true for the incumbent's party to win. The keys are set at 2 to 5 false keys which would still favour the incumbent.
See: The Keys to the White House - Wikipedia
As you see, the 13 keys are very subjective. It could be anything between 2 and 5 kyes failed depending on subjective evaluations as well as how it goes from now to election day.
There is no way that this counts as a scientifically proven hypothesis with one fail out of 10. The best guess if it is valid is that there continues to be a 1 in 10 chance of it getting wrong going forwards. Also he changed what the keys predict in 2016 when he predicted that Trump would win the popular vote. When he didn't he then said the keys predict the winner not the popular vote.
Also with one fail out of 10 there is no way this counts as a scientifically proven hypothesis.
Evaluating it just by the success rate so far it would count as an interesting hypothesis with some evidence in its favour, not a proven hypothesis.
This is a good article raising some of the issues with it though it goes a bit over the top in the conclusion.
. The “13 Keys” are garbage and you should stop paying attention to Allan Lichtman
DOESN’T MAKE SENSE THAT BIDEN RESIGNING AS PRESIDENT WOULD IMPROVE HARRIS’S CHANCE OF WINNING
Litchman says that if Biden resigns his presidency and hands it over to Harris right now then they retain the incumbency key.
But how does that make sense that Harris would have a better chance of being selected by the public if Biden resigns the presidency?
It's pretty obvious the public will have more confidence in the Democrats if Biden stays in office than if he resigns. It's he Republicans not the Democrats calling on Biden to resign.
So there is something wrong with the keys if they predict such an unintuitive conclusion as that Biden needs to resign as president to give Harris a better chance of success.
Also Kamala Harris has taken on the duties of president.
QUOTE STARTS
Harris has stepped in as a surrogate for the president at world gatherings. She attended the 2023 ASEAN summit in Biden’s place. Importantly for European allies, Harris stood in for Biden at the annual Munich Security Conference in 2022, when she voiced support for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as Russia prepared to invade — and again in 2023 as they fought on the battlefield.
“If Biden wasn’t going to go … I think they saw this as an opportunity to give her face time with European leaders and also help educate her on that aspect of foreign policy: Europe and NATO,” Townsend said. “There were pluses for her to go and lead the delegation. I think the idea was broadening her experience in international affairs and pulling her out of the California [perspective] where she was.”
Washington Rep. Adam Smith, the top Democrat on the House Armed Services Committee who has endorsed an open convention to pick Biden’s successor, said Harris’ representing Biden in Munich proves she’s ready for the world stage.
“Frankly, she has been stress-tested,” Smith said in an interview during the Republican National Convention. “She has been the lead spokesperson for the administration at the Munich Security Conference making the case for our role in Ukraine and NATO and in the world, and she’s been really strong.”
Her time under Biden has also been a plus, advocates say.
“She has had four years of both learning from President Biden, who has some of the strongest foreign policy chops we’ve ever had in a president, and has increasingly been taking the lead in representing the United States across the world,” said a former administration official who was granted anonymity to speak freely about Harris’ foreign policy record.
So she has some experience acting as president.
It doesn't make much sense that Biden resigning to give Kamala Harris several months as president during campaign season when she should be focusing on the campaign is going to boost her chance of winning the election.
And of course the Republicans just ignore these keys because Trump has never been favoured by them.
LITCHMAN’S KEYS ARE PLAUSIBLE BUT NOT SCIENTIFICALLY PROVEN
I mentioned the 13 keys for people who find them convincing and worry about Biden stepping down and losing the incumbency key.
However it’s important to know that Litchman’s 13 keys are just plausible not scientifically proven. That he got most elections right doesn't prove that he has an almost infallible method, it could be luck. It's not as improbable as one would think given that there is a 50 50 chance of guessing the right guy for each one.
There may be something in it but it's reasonable to be skeptical.
In more detail, he predicted 8 out of 9 elections.
In 2016 he predicted Trump to win the popular vote when Clinton did.
After 2016 he changed his method to say it predicts the election winner which made it consistent with 2016 but he didn't do that in advance.
. The Keys to the White House - Wikipedia
So he might well have to adjust it again in 2024.
The chance of getting at least 8 right out of 9 is the chance of getting 8 right out of 8 + the chance of getting 7 right out of 8 and 1 right out of 1.
That works out at 1 in 128 (1 in 256 and 1 in 128 combined with 1 in 2)
So it's a little under a 1% chance of having no predictive power whatsoever.
Also if it does have predictive power, then it still means there's a 1 in 9 chance he gets it wrong this time if his past success rate is typical.
But Joe Biden passing on the candidacy to Kamala Harris is pretty close to passing on the presidency. If Kamala Harris wins then I expect he will adjust his incumbency key to account for it.
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