Conflict between Israel and Iran has ended with a ceasefire - announced by Trump - Qatari Prime Minister confirms that Iran agreed to it - just after its symbolic strike on a US base in Qatar
UPDATE 3 - the conflict has ended and the ceasefire holds
Iran agreed to stop fighting at 12 pm on Monday US time (probably EDT) and then Israel stops unusually 6 hours later at 6 am Tuesday (probably EDT).
There was one minor violation, Iran fired one missile just after the end of its ceasefire which ws shot down by Israel. Then Israel destroyed one Iranian radar system after the end of its ceasefire time as a symbolic response. Their other planes turned back.
UPDATE 2 - Israel responded to Iran’s ceasefire violation (likely a mistake on Iran’s part) with a single SYMBOLIC strike by Israel on a radar installation - A WAY OF SIGNALLING IT'S OVER
Most of the planes turned back. One plane dropped two missiles on a radar station in Iran. This was a symbolic strike. Trump wanted Israel to do nothing, Netanyahu refused and they agreed on one symbolic strike. The other planes in the wave of fighter jets turned back without dropping their bombs.
Reminder - it’s how they do diplomacy in the Middle East - these symbolic strikes. Iran will understand that this is Israel’s way of ending it from their side by turning another massive bombing attack into a single symbolic strike.
Ceasefires often do have violations in the first few hours. So even though it seems to be completely over, could still be some Iranian commander who is completely out of the loop, lost internet connection and his equipment damaged and didn't know what the Ayatollah said. Such things do happen. Hopefully not. But both sides know it is over so even if there is a minor violation it's likely going to be okay.
In this military strikes language what Israel was saying was
[SUBTEXT IN SYMBOLIC LANGUAGE OF MIDDLE EAST MISSILE STRIKES]
"You made a mistake, you fired one missile after the ceasefire and though we shot it down and it did no harm we need to symbolically destroy one of your radars and then let's call it a day"
Iran understands this language and wants peace so it is highly unlikely to respond again.
UPDATE - CEASEFIRE STILL ON COURSE - Iran just did do a minor violation - one extra strike just after the deadline, no surprise - Israel sent a wave of pilots towards Iran but Trump says they will return without dropping the bombs
Israel say the Iranians did one extra strike beyond their deadline. More likely a commander got the timing wrong or was confused about the terms or was out of communication. Even with 6 hours before the ceasefire remember that Iran was under attack so the communications links could be damage, interconnection lost in places, and there might well be commanders ordered to keep silent to avoid detection. Iran deny it happened.
Trump says Israel has agreed to return its pilots without dropping their bombs
TEXT ON GRAPHIC:
ISRAEL is not going to attack Iran. All planes will turn around and head home, while doing a friendly “Plane Wave” to Iran. Nobody will be hurt, the Ceasefire is in effect! Thank you for your attention to this matter! DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
ISRAEL. DO NOT DROP THOSE BOMBS. IF YOU DO IT IS A MAJOR VIOLATION. BRING YOUR PILOTS HOME, NOW! DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114738104789842114
https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114737953503348541
https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump
Reuters say that the Qatari prime minister secured Tehran’s agreement to the US proposal after Iran’s strikes on a U.S. base in Qatar.
QUOTE STARTS
Qatar's Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani secured Tehran's agreement to the U.S. proposal for a ceasefire in the conflict between Israel and Iran during a call with Iranian officials held after Iran's strikes on a U.S. air base in Qatar on Monday, an official briefed on the negotiations told Reuters early on Tuesday.
The phone call came after U.S. president Donald Trump told Qatar's emir that Israel had agreed to the ceasefire and asked for Doha's help persuading Tehran to also agree to the ceasefire deal, the official said.
Trump also says that the ceasefire is indefinite, he thinks they will go for ever.
Asked how long the ceasefire would be, Trump said: “I think the ceasefire is unlimited. It’s going to go forever.”
He added that the war is completely over, saying he does not believe Israel and Iran “will ever be shooting at each other again.”
It seems odd to us that they would go to a ceasefire immediately after an attack on a US base - but in the Middle East it is like a language, worked out through previous conflicts.
Iran told Qatar about the strike in advance so that Qatar could be prepared to stop it
That’s a common way of de-escalating in the region by doing symbolic strikes they know can be countered easily. It’s a way of Iran signaling to Qatar
[SUBTEXT IN SYMBOLIC LANGUAGE OF MIDDLE EAST MISSILE STRIKES]
“We are ready for peace”,
And Qatar then secured that peace they were symbolically asking for with their strike.
So it led to this peace agreement.
It’s rather an odd ceasefire agreement but it makes sense in the context.
Normally both sides stop fighting at once. But in this agreement, Iran agrees to stop fighting first at approximately midnight in Washington D.C.
Then the Israelis can continue to attack Iran for another 12 hours to complete all the things they want to achieve. Then it stops and 12 hours after that the war is over.
Those details also may seem a bit surprising perhaps - that Iran agreed to stop fighting first and then let Israel attack them for 12 hours after they have stopped.
But remember that they had no way to stop the Israeli bombing strikes anyway - only to fire back at Israel with symbolic strikes that did very little. This means they have an end to the strikes. So it’s not so surprising as it seems and Qatar confirmed it’s genuine.
It's not unusual for a mediator to announce a ceasefire with no comment from the two participants.
Things have moved very rapidly and the news of the ceasefire is still spreading through the US administration.
It came together very quickly. So quickly that many in the US administration and likely many in Iran and Israel didn't know about it at the time.
However the Prime Minister of Qatar confirmed that Iran knew about it and agreed to it.
Reuters says that Trump agreed the ceasefire with Netanyahu and Vance and his team with Iran. Israel agreed to it on condition that Iran did no more attacks. Iran agreed to do no more attacks. That was it then done.
QUOTE STARTS
President Donald Trump brokered a ceasefire between Israel and Iran through talks with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday while his team, including Vice President JD Vance, held talks with Tehran, a senior White House official said.
The official, providing details of the ceasefire on condition of anonymity, said Israel agreed to it so long as Iran does not launch fresh attacks. Iran signaled that no further attacks would take place, the official said.
It is a very unusual ceasefire, probably the first ever where one side agrees to stop fighting before the other and it's announced in advance. But in these very unusual circumstances it makes perfect sense.
The Israelis are issuing new orders to evacuate huge areas of Tehran. So they are clearly going to make the most of their 12 hours to bomb Tehran as they can.
However Israel is not able to transport its big multi-ton bunker busting bombs the 1,500 km from Israel to Tehran, capital of Iran.
https://www.distance.to/Tehran/Tel-Aviv,ISR
Also this is an unusual very one-sided war started by Israel and with Iran pretty much helpless. So it is a much easier war to stop than most. Once Israel stops, Iran can’t do much anyway.
Israel is running out of interceptors. Iran still has ballistic missiles and launchers left.
Both sides had reasons to want to stop.
So this conflict may end soon.
Timeline of the ceasefire - 12 pm Monday US time (probably EDT) for Iran to stop and then 12 noon Tuesday for Israel to stop
As of writing this the ceasefire is about to start. That is normal for ceasefires. You set a date for it to start in advance. The unusual situation here is that it starts at midnight US time (probably EDT) for Iran but midday Tuesday for Israel.
Iran got in a last salvo before its ceasefire stage starts, probably using their last remaining launchers to do it.
Then Israel has a clear 12 hours to hit whatever it wants to hit in Tehran through to 12 noon US time tomorrow (likely EDT). You will know the ceasefire held if it stops at 12 noon tomorrow.
If Iran does do more symbolic strikes back - well the ceasefire comes into play fully at 12 pm US time tomorrow which gives a bit of play in case either Israel or Iran do extra strikes when they shouldn't.
It is common for a ceasefire to be broken in the first few hours e.g. because some soldiers didn't get the message etc so they design them like that with a bit of play.
There may well be commanders in Iran that are out of touch and have ballistic missiles and they for some reason have not been made aware of the decisions of the Ayatollah. They may not have internet communication, they may be under orders not to betray their presence etc.
The Ayatollah would have to sign off on any agreement. Presumably he has or Trump wouldn’t have said so as confidentally as he did. Others might not all know at the moment he signs it off especially as it came together so quickly.
Trump sent a message to Russia and China too - as neither of them have anything to match the B-2 which the US has had since the 1990s
With the B-2s, Trump sent a message not just to Iran - but to Russia too and also China.
Russia does have heavy bunker buster bombs too but though they have heavy lift bombers to match the B-2 they are ancient ones without stealth technology.
Russia couldn't have done that mission. The slow strategic bombers it has can never fly over Ukraine, they are far far too vulnerable and have to stay well away from the front lines.
America’s B-2 is
the only heavy lift stealth bomber in the world. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northrop_B-2_Spirit
Able to carry two 14 metric ton GBU-57s. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northrop_B-2_Spirit#Specifications_(B-2A_Block_30)
Combat proven for the first time in 1999.
The Chinese equivalent
doesn't exist yet even as a prototype and would carry only 10 tons. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xi%27an_H-20
The Russian equivalent
has reached prototype stage with slightly higher payload thanthe B-2 at 30 tons but not likely to be ready until the 2030s given the problems with the Russian air industry. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tupolev_PAK_DA
So it’s a powerful message to the world. Trump was correct when he said only the US could have done this mission.
Perhaps it may help him have more authority to stand up to Putin more and find a way to peace in Ukraine too.
Everyone agrees that the US has considerable ability to force Putin towards ending the war in Ukraine if it chooses to do so, through the sanctions and through supporting Ukraine with what it needs to defend itself.
What Ukraine needs from the US most of all are air interceptors which are the epitome of defensive technology. He may get some success now with negotiations with Trump over the minerals deal.
Trump doing something overwhelmingly positive that almost everyone in the USA would agree is good with hindsight
I end my short video on this by saying that it is okay for those who are opposed to much that Trump does to say Trump did something positive. People are mixed and it's good to encourage the things they do that are good while continuing to stand up against all the things they did that one thinks were awful decisions (such as cutting off the USAID foreign aid or the deportations to El Salvador prison, Or his treatment of trans people)
He is on a path himself, everyone is
So I see his quest for peace here as something very positive in him plus the way that he is able to handle situations like this like with Kim Jong Un when he defused a very tense situation and almost achieved a peace deal for a nuclear weapons free Korea - or his operation warp speed for vaccines in 2020 which saved many lives globally (even though for political reasons he doesn’t want to take credit for that).
Video for this blog post
YouTube: Conflict between Israel and Iran seems about to end with ceasefire
[this is based on an earlier version of this blog post indeed I expanded it as a result of some things I thought of while doing that video]
UPDATE - no chance of an invasion with aim of regime change despite the air control - and Ayatollah has already appointed 3 successors to choose between - needs reform from within and ending conflict is the way to reduce influence of IRGC
The Iranians need reform from within and a peaceful resolution and end to fighting is the way to reduce the power of the IRGC - in a country at war the military get more authority.
Also assassinating the Ayatollah wouldn't work. His successor would have the same power and he has appointed three people for his successor for the Iranian government to choose between if he dies or is killed.
QUOTE STARTS
Khamenei’s succession is a tense issue that would otherwise be decided in monthslong deliberations by Iran’s Assembly of Experts, according to Iranian officials cited by The Times. The clerical body that will now have to choose from the supreme leader’s three nominees should he die.
The officials said Khamenei, 86, knows the US or Israel could try to assassinate him, views such a death as martyrdom and wants a clean transition of power after his death, both to safeguard his legacy and to ensure Iran doesn’t get bogged down in messy battles of succession while at war.
The report did not elaborate on the identities of Khamenei’s three nominees for the next supreme leader. However, the officials said Khamenei’s son Mojtaba was not among them.
The Ayatollah is only their second leader since Iran formed. He controls all three branches of government, legislators, judiciary (the special clerical court) and the executive, and control of the army.
Everything has to go through him. He is one of the few absolute monarchs left in the world. Appointed for life.
Iran can have regime change. But it would happen from within not imposed from outside.
As for the idea of the US taking over on the ground, Iran is still a very formidable country to invade. It is protected by vast deserts and high mountains, the highest mountain 5,609 meters high.
It's not high compared to say the Alps but it is still high and snow covered
They have caves, tunnels etc. It would be a country fighting for its survival and the Israelis with their 12 day campaign were only targeting ballistic missile launchers for their missiles able to fire at least 1000 km to reach Israel. Even then they didn't get rid of them all, the Iranians were still firing them until the last minute.
The Iranians were likely sending a message to Israel that they weren't defeated by those strikes.
They must have enormous stockpiles scattered throughout the country for defence of smaller missiles if there was any attempt at invading the country on the ground.
It would be a far more formidable adversary than Hamas and a huge country.
Iran is slightly larger than France + Germany + Italy + United Kingdom + Iceland
Iraq is slightly larger than Germany
Areas in square kilometers:
France 640,427
Germany 357,581
Italy 302,068
United Kingdom 244,376
Iceland 103,000
1,648,195 - (640,427 + 357,581 + 302,068 + 244,376 + 103,000) = 743 square km.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_and_dependencies_by_area
And it is better equipped than Iraq was.
US or Israel or anyone with modern fighter jets would take it over in a few hours. But it would be far harder to invade on the ground.
4,524 times larger than Gaza Strip.
https://mapfight.xyz/map/gaza/#ir
It would be a second Vietnam war and one with almost nobody sympathetic to the West.
Many there want regime change - but not conquest by the West.
So no that won't happen.
UPDATE - confusing tweet by Iranian foreign minister - said there was no ceasefire ageement and in the same tweet said Iran would comply with it … face saving words or else didn’t get the update - Ayatollah in charge
The Ayatollah has supreme command of the army. The foreign minister has no say in it if the Ayatollah said yes to the ceasefire.
What happened is that Iran's foreign minister has posted a confusing tweet where he says Iran will behave as though there is a ceasefire agreement although he claims that there isn't any agreement.
Since the PM of Qatar said they HAD agreed a ceasefire - I think it is just face saving words will see. In any case whether there is an agreement or not, if Iran behaves as if there is an agreement it amounts to the same thing doesn't it ...
This is his confusing tweet:
QUOTE STARTS
As of now, there is NO "agreement" on any ceasefire or cessation of military operations. However, provided that the Israeli regime stops its illegal aggression against the Iranian people no later than 4 am Tehran time, we have no intention to continue our response afterwards.
The final decision on the cessation of our military operations will be made later.
In other words, he says there is no agreement YET but if Israel keeps to its side of the bargain Iran will on its side and at that point there WILL be a ceasefire.
I think he is just underlining that the ceasefire is conditional on both parties complying with it.
Which ceasefires always are.
The PM of Qatar said he arranged a ceasefire with Iran. So it is just face saving words by the Iranian foreign minister or he didn't get the message..
How US ended the war with Peace through Strength
This shows where the bunker buster bombs hit
The yellow / black striped markers here show how they are aligned with the underground facility.
The head of the IAEA says
At this time, no one - including the IAEA - is in a position to have fully assessed the underground damage at Fordow. Given the explosive payload utilized, and the extreme vibration-sensitive nature of centrifuges, very significant damage is expected to have occurred.
Iran has informed the IAEA that there was no increase in off-site radiation levels at all three sites.
The strikes were precise and did cause significant damage. Though it can only really be assessed on the ground they targeted a ventilation shaft and another structure that gave weak points into Fordo. Those holes you see in images were very precise, the six holes in Fordo were meant to be spaced out like that as each hole was drilled twice by two bunker buster bombs altogether. The US dropped 14 bombs in total which made 6 holes in Fordo and one hole in Nanatz. So, 7 of the 14 bombs precisely entered the same hole as a previous bomb, a very impressive display of accuracy.
The centrifuges in both places are likely completely destroyed and irreparable and the underground chambers are likely full of toxic Hydrogen fluoride and Uranium hexafluoride gas. The US also destroyed a facility that turns uranium into uranium hexafluoride gas, an essential step in the process of enrichment, and the Israelis destroyed the factories that make the centrifuges. They may well have additional centrifuges and the enriched uranium may well be somewhere else (without classified intelligence no way to know) but it's set the program back a long way while also showing to the Iranians what the US can do and how precise their weapons are, which is way way beyond what anyone in the region can do even Israel.
It may well help with diplomacy given the larger context.
Techy details showing the precision of how the US did it and what they achieved
This shows the details of what happened as analysed by the Institute for Science and International Security [the “Good ISIS”].
The B-2s seem to have dropped twelve bunker buster bombs on three holes with two bombs each.
So what may seem at first to be a spread of holes due to margin of error is far more precise than those images suggest. It was intentional. Two bunker busting bombs were enough to reach the underground chamber for each hole.
The US had 7 B-2s for the attack each carrying two bunker buster bombs. Six of them must have been used for Fodo.
The bombs would be timed to enter the hole one after another with the second bomb entering the hole at just the right moment to get through before the backfill from the first bomb partly filled the crater it formed - this requires timings of a fraction of a second.
The bombs were designed specifically for Fordo.
QUOTE This precision-guided bomb weighs 13,600 kilograms, including a 2,700-kilogram warhead, and can burrow 60 meters underground before detonating, according to the US Air Force, which will not specify the types of materials it can penetrate. According to Bronk, "at least two weapons dropped sequentially into the same breaching aim point are likely to be required to reach and destroy the main centrifuge facilities at Fordo."
The GBU-57 was designed "specifically for Fordo," said Ali Vaez, director of Iran research at the International Crisis Group, recalling that the Pentagon acknowledged in 2012 that the "bunker busters" it then possessed could not reach the site's underground facilities. The new version, presented in 2013 to Israeli political and military officials, according to the Wall Street Journal, was equipped with adjustable fuses to maximize penetration capabilities, more precise guidance systems and devices to evade Iranian air defenses.
Each bomb can get through 60 meters. The target depth is 80 to 100 meters from open sources (US may have more precise numbers). Two bombs able to get through 60 meters might not e enough to get to 120 meters or even 100 meters if they had a long gap in between but in quick succession they should be.
I can’t find any details for the timing and Perplexity AI couldn’t find them either, but it’s likely to be fractions of a second. It just says “none found” here https://www.perplexity.ai/search/scbd-penetration-depth-for-two-Ah8IZW5XTzGRpse4QJ7Aow#1
The reason is likely that it’s classified. But for blasting tunnels, a civilian application, then the timing of explosions in nearby holes works better if they are blasted sequentially rather than all at once, with timings measured in milliseconds.
https://www.perplexity.ai/search/physics-for-bunker-buster-bomb-4CDd9pJ0Ski_NR26h0FrrA#2
Some other cites here but it’s more confused: https://www.perplexity.ai/search/what-was-the-bomb-payload-of-t-ZK5bH8aMRI.Fpfr166ytMQ#4
So it is likely that the two bombs that it the same hole were precisely timed with a specific (but highly classified) timing interval between them and for each sequence of three holes they may well also have been timed to propagate the fragmentation from one to the other e.g. the three at the end of the centrifuge cascade hall might have been dropped in order with the rightmost one in this figure dropped first then a fraction of a second later the two that made the second hole and a fraction of a later for the third hole leading to a focused much stronger blast wave entering the centrifuge tunnel as a result - if they are capable of such precision.
The different pattern for the ventilation shaft by the equipment hall might be to have a broader less focused blast wave spreading sideways as it goes forwards. Just a guess from the pattern and the physics.
Anyway two bombs one after another should be enough to get thorough to 80 to 100 meters especially since it targets a weak point such as a vertical ventilation shaft. So each bomb should have got through and a cluster of three pairs of two would have an even more devastating effect.
Slide from video show here: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1937547337917669404.html or on X: https://x.com/TheGoodISIS/status/1937547337917669404
The two sets of three holes by 6 bunker buster bombs each would have set off blast waves one length ways along the Centrifuge cascade hall and the other at right angles to that to destroy the quipment and cascades from a different direction. Those perpendicular blasst waves maximize the destruction.
QUOTE STARTS
It appears that the bombing was precisely targeted to concentrate on two likely points of vulnerability evident from both the available plot plans and the complex's features observed during construction on historical satellite imagery publicly available on Google Earth.
The first point target is what can generally be termed as a ventilation "shaft" but is likely a more elaborate structure, which connects subsurface with a central hallway leading to the two main underground halls shown in the plot plan housing both equipment and centrifuges.
The second point target is located on the other side of the mountain ridge. Our overlay indicates that the bombs precisely struck an unknown surface service structure located directly above the south end of the centrifuge cascade hall. This service structure was only visible for a short time in late 2009 during its installation, just prior to being earth covered to conceal its presence.
Such point targeting not only completely destroyed that surface structure but was likely intended to focus at depth on the south end of centrifuge cascade hall, which, once breached, would use the hall's long side walls to channel the blast wave through the entire length of centrifuge cascade hall completely destroying all of the installed and otherwise operational centrifuges.
Interestingly, the bomb blast waves that would have been generated down the two halls from these two points of attack run perpendicular to one another, further increasing the likelihood of maximum damage and destruction.
Those holes would be a few meters across. They were precisely targeted on two structures that were visible for a short while in satellite photographs when the underground chambers were built.
Fordo was probably hit by 12 big bunkerbuster bombs.
So based on the IAEA statement, the centrifuges are vibration sensitive and likely are irreparable even if they didn't break through. But it seems likely they did based on this detailed analysis.
The remaining two bunker buster bombs were used for Nanatz where they formed a single hole - and could easily have got through to the enrichment hall. They would be set with a void sensor to detonate within the hall. It’s likely completely destroyed, no centrifuges left.
QUOTE The site was attacked again early on June 22, 2025, this time by the United States. Satellite imagery shows at least one penetration hole located above the buried enrichment hall caused by a GBU-57 bunker buster (see Figure 2). It is reported by the U.S. Department of Defense that at least two GBU-57’s (MOP) attacked the site, possibly in an attack where one followed the other through the same penetration hole in a “double tap” strike.3 As a result, the site is likely destroyed and knocked out of operation. No damage was observed in satellite imagery of the complex being constructed underneath Mt. Kolang Gaz La.
The US also destroyed a site used for converting Urainium into Uranium hexafluoride which is needed as a first step for enriching it.
QUOTE The next night, on June 22, the United States attacked the site with Tomahawk cruise missiles launched from a submarine, damaging additional buildings and the associated tunnel complex (see Figure 8). Notably, the main uranium conversion facility that converts natural uranium into uranium hexafluoride was severely damaged. Uranium hexafluoride is the form of uranium entered into gas centrifuges. Tunnel entrances leading to an underground complex just north of the main Esfahan complex were also struck during the attack. All four tunnel entrances appear to have collapsed. The IAEA also assessed that “extensive damage” was done to the tunnel entrances.
So the US did all that with just one sortie.
So US claims and it's believable, that they showed Iran how powerful they were and Iran doesn't want more of that and they also showed to Israel that US did in one sortie what Israel couldn't do even with a week of bombing.
So it is US's way of showing to both of them how vastly superior US is to either side.
And so they brought the war to an end or so they believe.
It's what the US calls "Peace through Strength.
The aim wouldn’t be to end the Iranian enrichment program. The factories that make the centrifuges were destroyed too but they certainly have some centrifuges left and they have their 60% enriched uranium which they may well have removed in time or not even stored in Fordo.
Rather it is to bring them back to the negotiating table where they negotiate from a position of weakness and knowing the US could do much more than it has and so also could Israel.
Iran is not likely to have removed the centrifuges which is the real objective
You may see this photo shared as supposed evidence of the Iranians removing the centrifuges first.
But no, they are dump trucks and they are taking sand in which the Iranian likely used to cover / block the entrances to stop the US from damaging the entrances to the facility before the strike.
They couldn’t realistically have taken the centrifuges out on that timescale.
Remember that what you can see in commercial imagery - the US defence can see in far more detail with their Earth observation satellites.
https://x.com/dataalerta/status/1936707222932804042
The US secret satellites are likely not quite high enough resolution to read a number plate or recognize someone’s face, but they are likely far higher resolution than these images.
Iran could however have taken out the enriched uranium, if they even did leave it in there, as it would easily fit in a single car. Indeed it’s very improbable that they left it there.
There is no way the US could force Iran to end enrichment by military means but it CAN lead bring them back to the negotiating table.
Looking forward - could this lead to a nuclear weapon free Middle East in the not too distant future?
This is speculation - but Israel has shown itself to be vastly powerful compared to Iran. Before this, Iran was seen as by far the most powerful Middle East country militarily apart from Israel. And US has shown itself to be vastly more powerful than Israel, achieving something in one day that Israel couldn’t do in well over a week of bombing.
So - does Israel still need nukes?
Israel is now on peaceful terms with all its neighbours, Lebanon, Jordan, Egypt, it’s likely soon at peace with Iran. Syria won’t want to fight Israel.
Only Israel votes against the resolution to establish a nuclear weapons free zone in the Middle East, and three minor abstentions
Iran would like to establish a Middle East nuclear weapon free zone on this map.
This is voted for regularly in the UN General Assembly.
ONLY ISRAEL VOTES AGAINST.
Three abstain: Argentina, Cameroon and the USA.
Several others don’t vote, small island states.
Eeryone else votes in favour including all the Middle East states except Israel
Coloured with: https://www.geograf.in/en/map-color.php
This is the record of votes for 2024:
https://reachingcriticalwill.org/images/documents/Disarmament-fora/1com/1com24/votes-ga/404.pdf
If Iran does agree to stop its enrichment program in a verifiable way with the IAEA - why then does Israel need nukes?
Maybe this will lead to a nuclear weapon free Middle East once the current conflict becomes past history - and hopefully also with a peaceful and just end to the Gaza conflict somehow.
See section in longer blog post: Countries that have agreed never to develop nukes - and nuclear free zones
YouTube: Longer term we may see a nuclear weapons free Middle East then World then Hans Blix's End to Wars
SEE ALSO
Putin's close connections with Russian Jews and support for the Russian émigrés in Israel - why it is no surprise that Russia held back from selling Iran effective defences from Israel
I monitor TASS, the Russian propaganda news site from time to time. One thing I noticed is that the very first news story on TASS about the US attack was of Netanyahu congratulating Trump for the strikes.
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Iran's symbolic response - warning US and Qatar in advance - very promising for the conflict to end if Israel reciprocates by stopping its attacks
Iran responded in a symbolic way, telling the US and Qatar hours in advance that it would attack their bases. This is very promising. It suggests they want to draw a line under this if Israel will too.
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Short videos to help people see they are safe from the war in Iran
I’ve done lots of short videos for my longer blog post. They may be more accessible to panicking people.
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You are safe after US strike on Iran - it can't start a world war - nobody will support Iran - Iran can't do anything - less risk than Trump's 2018 attack on Syria's chemical weapons factory
That metaphorical hailstorm in summer I mentioned has happened in my last blog post. Trump has authorized the strikes as you likely now know. As I said in my last blog post
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Why Iran and Israel are fighting - about whether Iran can enrich uranium - and no possibility of ground war at all - not regional or world war - symbolic blows by Iran counter serious attack by Israel
This is taking a while to write. I expect it to take another couple of hours or more to finish it and meanwhile I thought I should share it “as is” as it’s difficult to find the time to finish it right now and even in its unfinished shape it will help some scared people. Do message me if you see anything to fix and I’ve disabled commenrs because there …
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Iran clearly does not want nukes - is not an ally of Russia - and wants security for itself and prosperity like most countries - no risk of a world war
I hope to help you see things a bit from Iran’s perspective. As we’ll see, Iran is clearly not interested in developing nukes any time soon. It has been within a fortnight of enough nuclear material to make a first crude nuke for over a year now. It would take about 6 months to make the first crude nuke it could only use in Iran. But it could have got a…
Why we do NOT risk a world war from: Ukraine, the Middle East, China, North Korea, or anywhere else in the world - next to impossible - and longer term are headed for a future without any war
For a first overview look at the graphics, read the bullet points summary, and read the section titles in the contents list - then dive into more detail in any section of interest. If you are on the laptop you can also navigate to any section by clicking on the column of horizontal dashes you see to the left of this page.
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Facebook group Doomsday Debunked
Also do join our facebook group if you can help with fact checking or to help scared people who are panicking.
SEARCH LIST OF DEBUNKS
You can search by title and there’s also an option to search the content of the blog using a google search.
CLICK HERE TO SEARCH: List of articles in my Debunking Doomsday blog to date
NEW SHORT DEBUNKS
I do many more fact checks and debunks on our facebook group than I could ever write up as blog posts. They are shorter and less polished but there is a good chance you may find a short debunk for some recent concern.
I often write them up as “short debunks”
See Latest short debunks for new short debunks
I also tweet the debunks and short debunks to my Blue Sky page here:
I do the short debunks more often but they are less polished - they are copies of my longer replies to scared people in the Facebook group.
I go through phases when I do lots of short debunks. Recently I’ve taken to converting comments in the group into posts in the group that resemble short debunks and most of those haven’t yet been copied over to the wiki.
TIPS FOR DEALING WITH DOOMSDAY FEARS
If suicidal or helping someone suicidal see my:
BLOG: Supporting someone who is suicidal
If you have got scared by any of this, health professionals can help. Many of those affected do get help and find it makes a big difference.
They can’t do fact checking, don’t expect that of them. But they can do a huge amount to help with the panic, anxiety, maladaptive responses to fear and so on.
Also do remember that therapy is not like physical medicine. The only way a therapist can diagnose or indeed treat you is by talking to you and listening to you. If this dialogue isn’t working for whatever reason do remember you can always ask to change to another therapist and it doesn’t reflect badly on your current therapist to do this.
Also check out my Seven tips for dealing with doomsday fears based on things that help those scared, including a section about ways that health professionals can help you.
I know that sadly many of the people we help can’t access therapy for one reason or another - usually long waiting lists or the costs.
There is much you can do to help yourself. As well as those seven tips, see my:
BLOG: Breathe in and out slowly and deeply and other ways to calm a panic attack
BLOG: Tips from CBT
— might help some of you to deal with doomsday anxieties
PLEASE DON’T COMMENT HERE WITH POTENTIALLY SCARY QUESTIONS ABOUT OTHER TOPICS - INSTEAD COMMENT ON POST SET UP FOR IT
PLEASE DON'T COMMENT ON THIS POST WITH POTENTIALLY SCARY QUESTIONS ABOUT ANY OTHER TOPIC:
INSTEAD PLEASE COMMENT HERE:
The reason is I often can’t respond to comments for some time. The unanswered comment can scare people who come to this post for help on something else
Also even an answered comment may scare them because they see the comment before my reply.
It works much better to put comments on other topics on a special post for them.
It is absolutely fine to digress and go off topic in conversations here.
This is specifically about anything that might scare people on a different topic.
PLEASE DON’T TELL A SCARED PERSON THAT THE THING THEY ARE SCARED OF IS TRUE WITHOUT A VERY RELIABLE SOURCE OR IF YOU ARE A VERY RELIABLE SOURCE YOURSELF - AND RESPOND WITH CARE
This is not like a typical post on substack. It is specifically to help people who are very scared with voluntary fact checking. Please no politically motivated exaggerations here. And please be careful, be aware of the context.
We have a rule in the Facebook group and it is the same here.
If you are scared and need help it is absolutely fine to comment about anything to do with the topic of the post that scares you.
But if you are not scared or don’t want help with my voluntary fact checking please don’t comment with any scary material.
If you respond to scared people here please be careful with your sources. Don’t tell them that something they are scared of is true without excellent reliable sources, or if you are a reliable source yourself.
It also matters a lot exactly HOW you respond. E.g. if someone is in an area with a potential for earthquakes there’s a big difference between a reply that talks about the largest earthquake that’s possible there even when based on reliable sources, and says nothing about how to protect themselves and the same reply with a summary and link to measures to take to protect yourself in an earthquake.
PLEASE DON'T COMMENT ON THIS POST WITH POTENTIALLY SCARY QUESTIONS ABOUT ANY OTHER TOPIC:
INSTEAD PLEASE COMMENT ON THE SPECIAL SEPARATE POST I SET UP HERE: https://robertinventor.substack.com/p/post-to-comment-on-with-off-topic-940
The reason is I often aren't able to respond to comments for some time and the unanswered comment can scare people who come to this post for help on something else
Also even when answered the comment may scare them because they see it first.
It works much better to put comments on other topics on a special post for them.
It is absolutely fine to digress and go off topic in conversations here - this is specifically about things you want help with that might scare people.
PLEASE DON’T TELL A SCARED PERSON THAT THE THING THEY ARE SCARED OF IS TRUE WITHOUT A VERY RELIABLE SOURCE OR IF YOU ARE A VERY RELIABLE SOURCE YOURSELF - AND RESPOND WITH CARE
This is not like a typical post on substack. It is specifically to help people who are very scared with voluntary fact checking. Please no politically motivated exaggerations here. And please be careful, be aware of the context.
We have a rule in the Facebook group and it is the same here.
If you are scared and need help it is absolutely fine to comment about anything to do with the topic of the post that scares you.
But if you are not scared or don’t want help with my voluntary fact checking please don’t comment with any scary material.
If you respond to scared people here please be careful with your sources. Don’t tell them that something they are scared of is true without excellent reliable sources, or if you are a reliable source yourself.
It also matters a lot exactly HOW you respond. E.g. if someone is in an area with a potential for earthquakes there’s a big difference between a reply that talks about the largest earthquake that’s possible there even when based on reliable sources, and says nothing about how to protect themselves and the same reply with a summary and link to measures to take to protect yourself in an earthquake.
Thanks!
I've heard that neither Iran and Israel had already informed of the ceasefire proposal, and they will keep continue fighting. Then all of the sudden there are reports that Iran had finally agreed to a ceasefire shortly afterwards. Which one is true? What the hell is even going on anymore?
On one hand i glad that there were finally a peaceful resolution of this conflict, but on the other hand Trump is known for his deception and can use this as a way to deceive them into another false sense of security like before.
I'm skeptic of his movements, but i only hope that they kept their word and a peaceful resolution can be met for both sides.