Effects of Trump's "One Big Beautiful Bill" on Medicaid, SNAP, renewables etc - and some of the removed provisions

Since you likely all know that the bill passed and details of how and why - I’ve started a new blog post on the effects of it. Will add to this as people ask questions either by messaging, comments on this or in our group and I / we find the answers.

First, some people are worrying that since Trump can get this bill passed, he can do anything - no - it’s not like that. This graphic should help:

TEXT ON GRAPHIC: Things you can be sure of - understanding levels of confidence

Why it is okay to be confident of some things such as that Trump can't run for a third term and can't close down the free press in the USA

Summer Winter
100% predictable high confidence
Night Day

Hail in spring / summer
Hard to predict but unlikely in most places

Impossible for anyone to predict
Rain in Britain 4 weeks from now

As predictable as summer and winter or day and night because of the very robust US Constitution: Trump
- can't stand for a third term
- will leave office at 12 noon on 20th January 2029
- can't send officers to search your house without due cause
- can't censor the US press

Even Congress can't give him that right
- only a constitutional amendment which can be stopped by a majority in one chamber of each of 13 states.

Like hailstorms in summer in the UK, hard to predict but seemed unlikely:
- SCOTUS ruling on Birthright citizenship
- that all except 2 of the Big Beautiful Bill holdouts would flip overnight

Like weather in the UK, impossible to predict:
- Trump's tariff decisions
- whether he will do secondary tariffs of Russia (for months now)

Originated as the second half of my:

UPDATE: Surprise flip - Trump's Big Beautiful Bill passed after a record 8 hours and 45 minutes long speech by Hakeen Jeffries

The main concerns so far are about MEDICAID, SNAP and Renewables.

But first social media tweets have often claimed that this bill will make Trump a dictator and that was one of our top questions before it passed - no - that was based on a hyper-exaggerated account of the judicial review limitations.

Nothing can do that. The AI moratorium was also removed as well as a couple of other provisions that we were asked about before it passed.

What is NOT in the bill - discretionary funding like cutting NOAA, USAID etc

This bill does NOT include cuts to the NOAA, NASA, USAID, NSF etc.

That’s all discretionary funding which gets voted on afresh every year.

The discretionary budget for 2025-6 is voted on in September. The Democrats can fillibuster it and if it fails then typically they will agree to continue the 2024-5 budget as the same budget for 2025-6 (so a slight reduction in real value as it is the same dollar amount)

The Democrats can filibuster all of these.

I know that the government has pretty muich stopped USAID and made huge cuts to other agencies - but they will still have to spend the money somehow - unless Trump can force them agency by agency to go through the process of authorized impoundment - a rare approach that requires a simple majority similar to reconciliation. However if he tries this and fails, unlike reconciliation, he can never try again in his entire presidency for that same measure.

E.g. if Trump tries to use a simple majority in both houses to cut NASA funding and he fails, he can never again try to cut NASA funding in that way.

Anyway that’s not this bill. This bill mainly cuts Medicaid and SNAP.

What’s in the final bill - summary

The bill

• reduces mandatory funding for things like Medicaid [for younger people] and SNAP [food stamps for low income]

• extends the tax cuts of 2017 set to expire at the end of 2025

• scales back many of the renewables incentives from the Inflation Reduction Act

• increases the debt limit.

For the list of MOST of the provisions REMOVED from the House bill in the Senate see:

• https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/06/24/upshot/reconciliation-byrd-bath.html

  [can be a bit confusing to read - it is a list of provisions REMOVED but doesn’t say “removed” after each one]

For up to date details of what’s in the bill

• Summary of main provisions by CBS News: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/whats-in-trump-big-beautiful-bill-senate-version/ - mainstream, balanced, focus on factual reporting

• Conservative leaning summary of main provisions by Fox5 live: https://www.fox5dc.com/news/big-beautiful-bill-pass-senate-whats-next

• Economic effects of the bill by the Tax Foundation: https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/big-beautiful-bill-senate-gop-tax-plan/

• Long list of nearly all the provisions still in the bill by NY Times:
  https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/06/30/upshot/senate-republican-megabill.html

• Text of the bill this doesn’t seem to be the final version yet as of writing this: https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/1/text

Removed: Judicial review limitations - sale of public land - AI moratorium - enforced public school vouchers

Here are the stories about each one if you missed them:

• removed the AI regulation ban - which would have prevented any state level regulation of AI for 10 years

• This means that AI can be regulated at the state level, e.g. to protect jobs, or to prevent misinformation etc.

US senators defeated a proposal that would ban states from regulating artificial intelligence (AI) companies.

The US Senate voted 99-1 on Tuesday to get rid of the provision from President Donald Trump's big bill of tax breaks that would've banned any AI regulation for 10 years at the state level.

https://www.euronews.com/next/2025/07/01/us-senate-votes-to-stop-proposal-on-statewide-ai-regulation-in-99-1-vote

• No sale of public lands

Republican Sen. Mike Lee of Utah announced over the weekend he was removing a provision from the Senate's "big, beautiful bill" that would allow the sale of hundreds of thousands of acres of public lands for affordable housing and infrastructure.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/sen-mike-lee-removes-public-lands-provision-from-trumps-big-beautiful-bill/

• No restriction on power of courts to block government policies

Senate Democrats forced the removal of a provision in Republicans' sweeping domestic policy bill that sought to restrict the power of courts to block federal government policies with injunctions or restraining orders.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/republican-attempt-rein-federal-judges-stripped-trumps-big-bill-rcna214483

• new voucher-like program to pay for private schooling is opt in

• Democrat states opposed to using public funding to pay for private schooling are unlikely to opt in

Tucked into the bill is the creation of a tax-credit scholarship program that will pay for private school tuition. Individuals can knock $1,700 off their tax bill if they donate that amount to an organization that awards scholarships to kids who attend private school.

The inclusion is a win for private school choice advocates who have long championed an idea like this.

But the program will be optional for states, after the Senate parliamentarian ruled states could not be required to participate. That will probably curb the program’s impact, because it’s unlikely that Democrat-led states — where officials have vociferously opposed using public money for private schools — will opt in.

…

Many states have their own tax-credit scholarship or voucher program.

https://www.chalkbeat.org/2025/07/03/how-trump-big-beautiful-bill-will-affect-children-and-schools/

What reliable sources are saying about the health care effects

What can you expect to happen if you rely on Medicaid or SNAP?

Here are some of the main points from reliable sources.

Medicaid:

• 80-hours-a-month work requirement for adults without children or disabilities.

  • must be done by the end of 2026 but states can do it sooner.

  • 3 million Americans enrolled in Medicaid can’t work because of caregiving responsibilities

• New limits on Medicaid coverage for legal immigrants

• require states to charge Medicaid recipients above the poverty line for co-payments for some health care. This means things like lab tests and doctor’s visits and states are permitted to charge up to 5% of a person’s yearly income.
  https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/5379770-senate-trump-bill-tax-cuts-medicaid-snap-student-loans/

• Planned Parenthood and other reporductive health care clinics can’t get Medicaid reimbursement for non-abortion care (e.g. contraceptives).

• Reduction in how much states can tax Medicaid providers - this means taxing e.g. hospitals - all hospitals for all services to patients not just hospitals that provide services to Medicaid patients and not just those services.
  
  The hospitals still have an incentive to provide Medicaid because they get Federal funding for doing so.
  
  Details and how this affects hospitals here:
  https://www.cbpp.org/research/medicaid-and-chip/senate-reconciliation-amendment-would-cut-hundreds-of-billions-more-from

SNAP

• Recipients aged 54 and upwards have to work to receive SNAP

• Parents with dependents under 7 are exempt from working (was under 1)

• States with a payment error rate above 6% have to pay for some of the costs of SNAP, 5% to 15% of the cost (temporary exemption for Alaska and Hawaii)

Details from PBS https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/how-trumps-big-bill-could-affect-women-children-and-lgbtq-americans

Much more detail from NPR https://www.npr.org/sections/shots-health-news/2025/07/02/nx-s1-5453870/senate-republicans-tax-bill-medicaid-health-care

Some other details in:

https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/5379770-senate-trump-bill-tax-cuts-medicaid-snap-student-loans/

Some other sources you can check listed by Perplexity AI here:

https://www.perplexity.ai/search/only-check-for-sources-after-t-tiIROa.5TqeI5FVH8KFaHA#0

It only just passed in the Senate. All the Democrats voted against and amongst Republicans

• Rand Paul of Kentucky

• Thom Tillis from North Carolina

• Susan Collins from Maine

Lisa Murkowski eventually voted for the bill after getting promises for Alaska, her constituency

There was an extra $50 billion for rural hospitals but that wasn’t enough for Susan Colins to vote Yes.

https://www.healthcaredive.com/news/senate-passes-reconciliation-bill-medicaid-cuts/752018/

New work eligibility requirements for MEDICAID

You are exempt if you are

1. student

2. a care giver

3. have a disability

4. are low income with kids of 13 or younger

The 80 hours a month can be

1. qualifying employment

2. community service,

3. educational programs

4. work programs

5. a minimum level of income

You are no longer eligible for MEDICAID if you are an undocumented humanitarian entrant:

• (NO LONGER ELIGIBLE) : an asylee, a refugee, an individual granted humanitarian parole in the U.S. for at least one year,

The only non citizens eligible now are

• lawful permanent resident (LPR), Cuban/Haitian entrants, and Compact of Free Association (CFA) residents

As before you lose MEDICAID when you reach 65 and transition to Medicare so that is not changed - called the Medicare cliff.
https://www.ncoa.org/article/older-adults-facing-the-medicare-cliff-experience-worsening-health-and-financial-security/

Here I’m summarizing these two quotes, you can read the sources to find out more:

QUOTE STARTS

The legislation requires "able-bodied" Medicaid recipients to work 80 hours a month or qualify for an exemption, such as being a student, caregiver or having a disability. The original House version limited the work requirement to low-income adults without children, but the Senate version added the work requirement to parents of children older than 13.

The legislation defines "able-bodied" people as those not medically certified as physically or mentally unfit for employment. The legislation also would strip coverage from undocumented immigrants who get Medicaid through state-funded programs.

https://eu.usatoday.com/story/money/2025/07/01/millions-lose-health-insurance-trump-tax-bill/84431378007/

QUOTE STARTS

Very limited exceptions would apply; for example, American Indians, veterans with disabilities, medically frail individuals, and parents of a dependent child under age 14 or a disabled individual would be exempted. The requirements could be satisfied by qualifying employment, community service, educational or work programs, or showing a minimum level of income. States would determine the compliance of new Medicaid applicants under the expansion category using one to three months of information, at the state’s election. States would be required to re-evaluate enrollees’ compliance with the work requirements at least every 6 months (at the time of eligibility redeterminations), or more frequently, at state option.

https://www.feldesman.com/the-one-big-beautiful-bill-act-is-approved-by-the-senate-devastating-impacts-for-health-coverage-overall-some-silver-linings-for-fqhcs/

Even without subsidies - renewables are lower cost than gas, the lowest cost fossil fuels - with gas getting more expensive - and renewables due to at least halve by 2030

Renewables are unstoppable. Trump and the Republicans are trying to swim against a rip tide.

TEXT ON GRAPHIC:

The One Big Beautiful Bill is fighting a rip-tide

• renewables already lower cost than lowest cost fossil fuels (gas)

• renewables due to AT LEAST halve in price again by 2030

May slow the transition to renewables slightly that's all

Graphic from: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Rip_current_warning_signs_at_Mission_Beach.JPG

Currently the global leaders are China, US, Europe and India. This bill may change the ranking of them relative to each other but will not stop the other leaders indeed may even boost them.

https://sherwoodpower.co.uk/energy/renewable-energy-around-the-world-leaders-and-challenges/

This shows the renewables investment by region for 2015 and 2025 to show how much it has grown while fossil fuels investment has shrunk everwhere except in China and India.

It increased in China and India because they are rapidly industrializing from a more or less pre-industrial society. But most of the extra investment even in those countries is for renewables.

https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/energy-investment-across-regions-and-sectors-2015-and-2025

These are the top ten renewables energy companies by revenue. The two US companies in the list are 3rd, 4th and 5th in the list.

TEXT ON GRAPHIC:

China, Jinko Solar Holding Co. Ltd., $83.06 billion
Spain, Iberdrola SA, $64.42 billion
United States, GE Vernova, $35.71 billion
United States, NextEra Energy, $25.27 billion
United States, Constellation Energy Corp., $24.2 billion
Canada, Canadian Solar Inc., $5.86 billion
Canada, Brookfield Renewable Corp., $3.92 billion
Denmark, Vestas Wind Systems A/S, $2.82 billion
Canada, Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp., $2.45 billion
China, Daqo New Energy Corp., $737.68 million

Data from: https://www.investopedia.com/investing/top-alternative-energy-companies/

Renewables are already cheaper than gas (the lowest price fossil fuels) in the USA and due to at least halve in price again by 2030

QUOTE A report released by Lazard in the US this week highlights that renewable sources of energy, namely wind and solar, are the cheapest and quickest way to generate power for the nation. In comparison, the cost to build new gas-fired power plants is the highest it has been for 10 years. Furthermore, the report highlighted that renewables remained the cheapest and most efficient option, even without the need for government subsidies.

https://www.renewableinstitute.org/us-report-highlights-renewables-as-cheaper-than-gas/

QUOTE the forecasts see solar and wind supplying over a third of all power by 2030 (up from around 12% currently), while the major cost declines over the past 10 years are expected to continue with solar and wind roughly halving in price again by 2030.

https://rmi.org/press-release/renewable-energy-deployment-puts-global-power-system-on-track-for-ambitious-net-zero-pathway/

So, even in the US, the risk isn't of renewables being replaced by fossil fuels. It is of the US falling behind in its current surge in renewables technology and producing fossil fuels it can't sell by 2030 when there is going to be a glut in the markets of fossil fuels and production will have to start shutting down.

Even in the US, it's now got to the point where removing all tax incentives for renewables still leaves them lower price than the lowest price fossil fuel (gas). Meanwhile gas will get more expensive to extract if anything while both solar and gas are predicted to halve in price yet again in the next 5 years by 2030.

The renewable industry in the US got enough of a boost under Biden and is vigorous enough that it should be able to keep going through the next couple of years. But other areas of the world like China and the EU will be able to compete more effectively with the US in renewables technology as a result of this bill.

Few realize that Texas is HUGE on Renewables - up there with California.

TEXT ON GRAPHIC: Solar power in Texas doubles MORE than doubles EVERY 2 YEARS. SECOND to California on Solar and AHEAD on Wind..

. Momentous changes on the way in ERCOT as Texas renewable transition rolls on

It is actually a very early pioneer in wind energy. It had a wind energy mandate already in 1999, because of oil pioneers who saw the potential of Texas for wind early on. It was introduced by George W. Bush, when he was governor of Texas!

QUOTE STARTS

It is in the sun belt - that means they have LOTS of solar power:

We didn't do it for the cleanliness. We didn't do it for climate change. We did it because it makes us a lot of money for the landowners and saves us a lot of money for the consumers.

…

One study found that all this cheap renewable energy is saving the average Texas household almost $200 a year, though skeptics say that figure may be inflated.

…

It's a big state. There are a lot of areas where it's sunny and it's windy. In the wide open spaces of West Texas and South Texas, there are some wonderful areas for development of renewable resources.

…

In 1999, then-Governor George W. Bush, working with a Democratic legislature, signed a law deregulating Texas' power market to make it more competitive and enshrined a state mandate for wind power.

There were landowners who were willing to lease their land for these new industries.

…

Texas had a mandate before England, before California, before New York. You list all these liberal economies, and Texas had a renewables mandate before them.

…

Today, the Lone Star State generates more megawatts of wind power than any other in the nation. When it comes to solar, Texas trails only California and actually ranks first in utility scale solar projects.

Texas' clean energy boom is also being driven by its ready-made army of workers and entrepreneurs coming directly out of the oil and gas industry.

. Texas goes green: How oil country became the renewable energy leader

It will get increasingly hard to support fossil fuels over the next 3 years of Trump's presidency. By 2028 with the price of solar and wind possibly halved already (it has always exceeded projections in the past) the fossil power stations will gradually have to be closed down.

• Renewable power stations continue to earn money with very low overheads for as long as they are in operation, even if they don't pay back the original cost they still are kept running.

Even if a renewable company goes bankrupt and is put into receivership it will still be kept running because it earns a constant income.

• Fossil fuel power stations have to pay for the fuel. So once the competitive price falls below a certain point, if there is enough renewable capacity, the fossil fuel power stations have to close down as they can't compete.

China has to pay to keep fossil fuel plants idle so that they can surge capacity if needed. The US would likely need to do the same soon.

This graphic shows which states would have household energy prices most impacted by the BBB cuts on these grants.

With that background it is not surprising that Texas is one of the ones potentially worst affected.

Household energy prices in Texas could increase by 2% to 7% as a result.It impacts the manufacturers too of course. Musk is a big critic of these provisions in the BBB. Musk put it like this in a tweet:

TWEET

The latest Senate draft bill will destroy millions of jobs in America and cause immense strategic harm to our country!

Utterly insane and destructive. It gives handouts to industries of the past while severely damaging industries of the future.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1939051424995786839.html

It is a phase out with the tax credits being removed at various points. Over the next 3 years gradually there will be less incentives for renewables - but also the renewables technology will be getting less and less cost too.

Biden's incentives have already done their work and made a big difference to the US renewables industry at a time when it needed incentives to compete.

Effects of the bill on renewables:

Ends these credits on various dates:

• Electrical Vehicle credits end on September 30, 2025

• charging structure infrastructure grants end for properties that are entered into service after June 30, 2026.

• Energy Efficiency Home Improvement Credit ends on property placed in service after December 31, 2025 (for 25C) and December 35, 2025 (for 25D).

Immediately terminated

• clean electricity investment credit

• clean electricity production credit for solar and wind production facilities

What I can’t find at present is much analysis of the effect on renewables in other countries.

The direct effects would be to reduce their ability to buy low price renewables from the USA and reduce competitiveness. But that would also lead to them boosting and building independence in their own renewable industry, just as is happening with health care with the removal of USAID in Africa.

Africa is one of the most affected because it depeneds so much on imported technology for renewables. The prices will continue to fall but likely not so fast.

I can’t find much comment yet, but this is a call for action for green ammonia fertilizer production by Brian Maphanga, Chief Operating Officer of Solinzi Power a South African company who has given a fast reaction to the OBBBA.

QUOTE STARTS

1. Accelerate the Renewable Energy Foundation Domestically:

• REIPPPP (Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme) on Steroids (Regardless of Global Winds): South Africa must redouble efforts to significantly increase the pace and scale of renewable energy procurement rounds. Addressing grid connection bottlenecks with extreme urgency (Eskom's capital expenditure plans must be funded and executed) is paramount. Streamlining environmental and other permitting processes, while maintaining robust standards, is non-negotiable.

• Transmission Grid Overhaul: Massive, strategic investment in expanding and reinforcing the national transmission grid, particularly linking renewable-rich zones (Northern/Western/Eastern Cape) to demand centers and potential export hubs (ports), is critical. Exploring innovative financing and potentially private sector participation in transmission becomes even more urgent to ensure that generated power can actually reach demand centres.

• Unlock Distributed Generation: Regulatory hurdles for large commercial and industrial (C&I) renewable projects must be swiftly removed, allowing them to feed excess power into the grid or directly power industrial processes, reducing reliance on the constrained national grid and demonstrating local resilience.

2. Develop & Execute a Laser-Focused National Green Hydrogen/Ammonia Strategy (Internally Driven):

• Beyond Aspiration, to Specifics: South Africa must move swiftly from its Hydrogen Society Roadmap to a concrete implementation strategy, driven by domestic imperative rather than solely external market signals. Designate specific Special Economic Zones (SEZs) or Hydrogen Valleys with tailored incentives, pre-approved environmental impact assessments, and dedicated infrastructure plans (water, grid connection, port access).

• Anchor Domestic Demand – Prioritize Fertilizer: Make securing domestic fertilizer production via green ammonia a central pillar. Actively facilitate partnerships between green ammonia producers and existing or new fertilizer manufacturers (e.g., Foskor, Omnia). This provides a clear, immediate, and high-value domestic market that is less susceptible to global policy shifts in other nations. This strategic move could shield SA farmers from volatile global fuel prices and geopolitical supply shocks.

• Proactive, Targeted Investor Engagement: Don't wait for proposals; actively court major international players (energy companies, fertilizer giants, infrastructure funds, DFIs) but emphasize South Africa's intrinsic resource advantages and the domestic demand opportunity, alongside any export potential. Highlight long-term stability and a commitment to green industrialization.

• Water Security Strategy: Address the significant water requirements for electrolysis (high-purity water) through desalination (for coastal projects), advanced wastewater treatment, or sustainable sourcing, integrated into project planning from day one.

• Establish Clear Regulations & Standards: Develop comprehensive safety regulations, technical standards, and certification schemes for green hydrogen and ammonia production, storage, transport, and use, aligned with international best practices, to build investor confidence and ensure safe operations.

3. Build the Human Capital Pipeline: Collaborate urgently between government, industry, and universities (e.g., Stellenbosch, Nelson Mandela University, UCT, Wits) to develop specialized training programs for the green hydrogen/ammonia sector, from engineering and operations to maintenance and logistics. Leverage existing skills from the petrochemical industry and actively re-skill workers from transitioning fossil fuel sectors.

In a nutshell....

The "One Big Beautiful Bill Act," if…. who am I kidding, WHEN its enacted as reported, presents a stark challenge to the global renewable energy momentum. For Africa and South Africa, it underscores the urgent need to build a robust, internally driven renewable energy economy. While external factors will always play a role, the continent's immense natural resources and growing economic imperative demand a strategic, decisive, and accelerated pivot towards a truly sustainable, resilient, and energy-secure future, less dependent on the shifting political winds of other nations.
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/obbba-paradox-examining-how-one-beautiful-bill-could-global-maphanga-zwcyf/

This is about how Trump’s presidency will have only the minutest effect on global warming no matter what happens.

Trump’s presidency will have only the minutest effects on global warming - indeed he is betting on the wrong horse on fracking with the world AND the USA moving increasingly towards renewables - DRAFT

Robert Walker

·

14 November 2024

I will incorporate material from: SHORT DEBUNK: If Trump is elected for 4 years it will have only minute effects on global warming

Read full story

Genuine budget concerns - the US debt projection for the next few years is far worse in 2025 than in 2023 according to the Congressional Budget Office

My blog post here is sadly out of date, it's using the 2023 projection. But in 2025 the projection for the future is much worse so they need to solve it urgently.

BLOG: US doesn't have to control its debt in the 2020s — it's a source of wealth to Americans and speeds recovery from recession — and many ways to do it in the 2030s READ HERE: https://robertinventor.substack.com/p/us-doesnt-have-to-control-its-debt

BLOG: Why the US's national debt overwhelmingly benefits Americans — and the US can never default on its debt — only needs to control it in the 2030s — with many solutions READ HERE: https://robertinventor.substack.com/p/why-the-uss-national-debt-overwhelmingly

I was relying on the 2023 CBO projection in the originals of those blog posts written a couple of years ago or so and just copied them into my substack.

Back then the Congressional Budget Office was giving pluses and minuses of increasing debt and saw it as something that needs to be fixed in the longer term.

This is about pluses of increasing debt:

QUOTE STARTS

Nevertheless, policies that drive up debt by increasing spending or reducing revenues can benefit people and provide support to the economy, especially during challenging times. And federal investment—including investment financed by deficits—can boost private-sector productivity and output (although that increased output would only partially mitigate the adverse fiscal consequences of increased federal borrowing).

Higher debt itself can also have beneficial consequences. Higher interest rates on Treasury securities can help workers save for retirement by increasing the return they can earn on those assets. Similarly, higher interest rates on Treasury securities can help businesses by increasing their return on a liquid asset that can be used to cover payroll and other expenses (though their borrowing costs would be higher, and an increase in the rate of return on newly issued Treasury securities would reduce the value of existing securities of the same maturity).

https://www.cbo.gov/publication/59331

The 2025 projection is rather different with a picture of some urgency to fix it in some way.

The 2025 projection ends

QUOTE STARTS

Ultimately, high debt and deficits carry significant risks and threats to the economy and the nation. They hinder economic growth by crowding out investments, pushing up interest rates, straining the federal budget through rising interest payments, creating geopolitical challenges and risks, making the response to new emergencies more challenging, imposing burdens on future generations, and increasing the risk of a fiscal crisis.

To address the nation’s long-term budgetary challenges, policymakers should restore solvency to Social Security and other trust funds, lower health care costs, reduce spending, cut tax breaks and raise revenue, promote stronger economic growth, and offset any new initiatives. They should not add further to the debt by enacting or extending tax cuts and spending without offsets. Doing so could spark a debt spiral and impose significant costs on current and future generations. https://www.crfb.org/papers/analysis-cbos-march-2025-long-term-budget-outlook

The deficit issues are longer term and don't need to be solved immediately as in within weeks. On the timescale of the next few years but not by the end of this year.

But the artificial debt ceiling has to be increased before the summer recess in August unless they postpone the recess to sort out the debt ceiling rise.

Need to deal with the increasing debt within a few years - but most ways of doing that are not acceptable to Republicans

Of course Trump could solve a lot of his problems by just not extending the tax cuts any more which would save $4 trillion in the next decade. https://bipartisanpolicy.org/blog/the-new-cost-for-2025-tax-cut-extensions-4-trillion/ these tax cuts mainly affect higher income people in the USA.

There are many other ways to sort out the debt issue. Trump's problem is that none of them are acceptable to the Republicans.

Trump could increase income if he:

• increase taxes,

• increase retirement age

• add in VAT

• encourage immigration (which increases revenue as they tend to be young and pay more in tax than the state spends on looking after them)

Or he can

• reduce defence spending [Defence spending is discretionary so that's not in this bill]

• increase the debt as needed and punt the problem down for another year or two

None of those are things he wants to do.

Nothing to worry about downgrading of US credit rating from Moody's aaa to aa1

It is a downgrading but it is still very high.

https://www.perplexity.ai/search/which-countries-have-aaa-ratin-Qh7D5fYqRTeijhNDTIhSEg#3

The two other major credit rating agencies, Standard & Poor’s (S&P) and Fitch Ratings, have both already downgraded the nation’s rating — S&P in 2011 and Fitch in August 2023.

With all of them the US outlook is stable.

https://www.pgpf.org/article/moodys-downgraded-its-us-credit-rating-and-warns-that-recent-policy-decisions-will-worsen-fiscal-outlook/

If the US doesn’t solve its debt problem - it doesn’t turn into a low or even middle income country - stays high income, high standard of living

First if the US was unable to control its debt and it continued to rise, eventually a significant amount of the budget would be used just to pay off the debt interest.

This would gradually over several decades:

• reduce GDP

• increase unemployment

• reduce wages

• increase mortgage rates

• reduce the available investment for new businesses as investors favour buying Federal debt instead of business debt (called "Crowding out".

Although the effects would be gradual, the more it continues the harder to reverse. That’s why it’s better to reverse it sooner rather than later.

Details see:

https://www.pgpf.org/article/new-report-rising-national-debt-will-cause-significant-damage-to-the-u-s-economy/ New Report: Rising National Debt Will Cause Significant Damage to the U.S. Economy

Nothing would happen suddenly. It wouldn't turn the US into a middle or low income country, it would remain high income but ordinary Americans would notice wages not rising so fast, fewer job opportunities, higher interest rates and more difficult to get loans from the bank.

Then if there was an economic crisis like the pandemic the government would be somewhat more limited in what it can do. It would have to take on more debt but with more difficulty.

If it went on for long enough foreign investors might lose confidence in the US as an investment.

But not going to lead to hyperinflation or something like that.

I asked Perplexity AI which then found that page by the Peterson institute which I know is a reliable source came across it before.

It found many other sources. This is its summary https://www.perplexity.ai/search/what-would-be-the-effect-on-th-k2oV8noeS8e6lGCXlzzUtg#0

But don’t rely on its summary, it’s just a chatbot completing a pattern of words and though greatly improved from a year ago they often make the most dumb mistakes!

But Perplexity AI almost always links to genuine sources - so it’s great for fact checking - to go to is sources and see what they say, as I did.

I could expand this section into a larger article at some point.

But there are many ways to solve this problem. The main issue is politics not economics.

The simplest method of all, though politically difficult for both Republicans AND Democrats to support, is to encourage legal immigration make it easier for people in other countries to immigrate into the US. They tend to be young, hard working, entrpreneurs (like Musk), lower health care expenses, feed more into the tconomy by way of taxes.

The other simple method is to raise retirement age. And then those other ways of doing it already mentioned, taxes, VAT, reduce defence spending.

In my previous debunk I also explore the possibility of a peace dividend once we have peace treaties in the Middle East, the Ukraine war etc and once we also are much less dependent on oil being shipped around the world because of renewables.

The combination of those two could lead to a significant peace dividend especially if Putin does NOT decide he wants to enter into an arms race with NATO with his much weaker economy once the Ukraine war is over.

I go into that at the end of my previous debunk here:

Also this graphic and video may help.

You can still be confident in elections, that Trump can’t become a dictator, that your basic rights are preserved, free from unreasonable searches, and so on.

Those are like day and night, summer and winter.

While this bill passing - it is more like a hail storm in summer in the UK - suprising sudden, but not impossible.

So - please don’t feel like this is the end of democracy or anything like this for those who have worried about that. It NEVER was a risk.

It may help to understand levels of confidence. This is a graphic I did for that for the different situation of world war and the Iran exchanges.

TEXT ON GRAPHIC:
Why you are safe - understanding levels of confidence

Why it is okay to be confident about some things such as that Iran can't fight a world war and China and Russia wouldn't defend Iran from the US
Summer Winter Night Day: 100% predictable high confidence
Hail in spring / summer Hard to predict but unlikely in most places

Impossible for anyone to predict: Rain in Britain 4 weeks from now

Similar certainty to day / night and winter / summer:

• Iran hasn't got ICBMs

• Iran can't attack the US or Europe

• Iran can't fight a world war

Also very certain:

• Russia and China are NOT helping Iran in any way to protect itself and WQNT' help it if US strikes Iran

Like hail storms - hard to predict but seems unlikely:

• Trump is risk averse and wants a peace treaty and is unlikely to strike the Fordo facility when he can use it to pressure Iran to talk

As unpredictable as rain in UK:

• when Israel will stop its strikes

• what precisely Israel will target next

But can't be as intense as Gaza strikes because of the distance to fly to get there

Background graphics:

Winter https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Winter_Season.JPG

Summer: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Field_Hamois_Belgium_Luc_Viatour.jpg

Hand holding hail in strawberry bed https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Hand_holding_hail_in_a_strawberry_patch.jpg

Union jack umbrella https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Umbrella-UK-1.jpg

See section in longer blog post: Why you are safe - understanding levels of confidence

YouTube: Why you are safe - understanding levels of confidence for things that scare you like wars

The US Constitution has stood the test of time and it will weather many more things like this.

Voters still have the vote and if they like this bill it will encourage them to vote for Republican legislators in the mid-terms and vote in a Republican president after Trump.

If they don’t like it’s effects it is likely to lose the Republicans the mid-terms for the House and possibly the Senate too, and may line them up to lose the next presidential election too.

The bill itself could be reversed in a future Congress as easily as this bill revesed some provisions of the Inflation Reduction act.

And all Trump’s executive orders can be reversed some time soon after 12 noon on Jan 20th 2029 if that is what the voting public want.

The USA remains a democracy and it’s up to the people what they decide.

I am careful to write this in an impartial way. I am not trying to change the outcome of US political decisions or say that any of them are right or wrong.

As a voluntary fact checker I need to do that. It’s a bit like being a Justice in a way. I fact check for anything that scares people whether it is right wing or left wing or whatever it is.

I need to keep a careful wall between any of my views and my fact checking to help scared peopel or I couldn’t help them properly.

Sometimes that’s impossible, and if so then I disclose my views and explain why I can’t - a bit like when a Judge recuses themselves from a case except I have to write it anyway. That is rare only occasionally I need to do that.

This isn’t such a case.

PREVIOUS BLOG POSTS

Also

See also

also

CONTACT ME VIA PM OR ON FACEBOOK OR EMAIL

You can Direct Message me on Substack - but I check this rarely. Or better, email me at support@robertinventor.com

Or best of all Direct Message me on Facebook if you are okay joining Facebook. My Facebook profile is here:. Robert Walker I usually get Facebook messages much faster than on the other platforms as I spend most of my day there.

FOR MORE HELP

To find a debunk see: List of articles in my Debunking Doomsday blog to date See also my Short debunks

Scared and want a story debunked? Post to our Facebook group. Please look over the group rules before posting or commenting as they help the group to run smoothly

• Facebook group Doomsday Debunked

Also do join our facebook group if you can help with fact checking or to help scared people who are panicking.

SEARCH LIST OF DEBUNKS

You can search by title and there’s also an option to search the content of the blog using a google search.

CLICK HERE TO SEARCH: List of articles in my Debunking Doomsday blog to date

NEW SHORT DEBUNKS

I do many more fact checks and debunks on our facebook group than I could ever write up as blog posts. They are shorter and less polished but there is a good chance you may find a short debunk for some recent concern.

I often write them up as “short debunks”

See Latest short debunks for new short debunks

I also tweet the debunks and short debunks to my Blue Sky page here:

. doomsdaydebunks.bsky.social

I do the short debunks more often but they are less polished - they are copies of my longer replies to scared people in the Facebook group.

I go through phases when I do lots of short debunks. Recently I’ve taken to converting comments in the group into posts in the group that resemble short debunks and most of those haven’t yet been copied over to the wiki.

TIPS FOR DEALING WITH DOOMSDAY FEARS

If suicidal or helping someone suicidal see my:

BLOG: Supporting someone who is suicidal

If you have got scared by any of this, health professionals can help. Many of those affected do get help and find it makes a big difference.

They can’t do fact checking, don’t expect that of them. But they can do a huge amount to help with the panic, anxiety, maladaptive responses to fear and so on.

Also do remember that therapy is not like physical medicine. The only way a therapist can diagnose or indeed treat you is by talking to you and listening to you. If this dialogue isn’t working for whatever reason do remember you can always ask to change to another therapist and it doesn’t reflect badly on your current therapist to do this.

Also check out my Seven tips for dealing with doomsday fears based on things that help those scared, including a section about ways that health professionals can help you.

I know that sadly many of the people we help can’t access therapy for one reason or another - usually long waiting lists or the costs.

There is much you can do to help yourself. As well as those seven tips, see my:

BLOG: Doing what matters at times of stress
— new WHO booklet to help with mental health during COVID19 pandemic

BLOG: Breathe in and out slowly and deeply and other ways to calm a panic attack

BLOG: Tips from CBT
— might help some of you to deal with doomsday anxieties

PLEASE DON’T COMMENT HERE WITH POTENTIALLY SCARY QUESTIONS ABOUT OTHER TOPICS - INSTEAD COMMENT ON POST SET UP FOR IT

PLEASE DON'T COMMENT ON THIS POST WITH POTENTIALLY SCARY QUESTIONS ABOUT ANY OTHER TOPIC:

INSTEAD PLEASE COMMENT HERE:

Post to comment on, with off topic potentially scary comments - or send me a private message - or use our group on Facebook

The reason is I often can’t respond to comments for some time. The unanswered comment can scare people who come to this post for help on something else

Also even an answered comment may scare them because they see the comment before my reply.

It works much better to put comments on other topics on a special post for them.

It is absolutely fine to digress and go off topic in conversations here.

This is specifically about anything that might scare people on a different topic.

PLEASE DON’T TELL A SCARED PERSON THAT THE THING THEY ARE SCARED OF IS TRUE WITHOUT A VERY RELIABLE SOURCE OR IF YOU ARE A VERY RELIABLE SOURCE YOURSELF - AND RESPOND WITH CARE

This is not like a typical post on substack. It is specifically to help people who are very scared with voluntary fact checking. Please no politically motivated exaggerations here. And please be careful, be aware of the context.

We have a rule in the Facebook group and it is the same here.

If you are scared and need help it is absolutely fine to comment about anything to do with the topic of the post that scares you.

But if you are not scared or don’t want help with my voluntary fact checking please don’t comment with any scary material.

If you respond to scared people here please be careful with your sources. Don’t tell them that something they are scared of is true without excellent reliable sources, or if you are a reliable source yourself.

It also matters a lot exactly HOW you respond. E.g. if someone is in an area with a potential for earthquakes there’s a big difference between a reply that talks about the largest earthquake that’s possible there even when based on reliable sources, and says nothing about how to protect themselves and the same reply with a summary and link to measures to take to protect yourself in an earthquake.