Shift of Hungary from far right to centre-right: Peter Mayar's 2/3 majority will completely overturn all far right changes Orban made - restore LGBT rights - won't block EU aid to Ukraine
Victor Orban conceded to Peter Magyar with a very clear majority. The final total is 141 seats for Tisza by the end of count on Saturday at 100% complete. It’s 133 for a ⅔ majority.
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This is great for LGBT rights in Hungary and freedom of speech especially in journalism and the media. Also it will make it far easier to work with the EU and unlock billions in EU Funding.
Also, Hungary will no longer block the EU loan to Ukraine and Peter Magyar has already said he supports Ukraine’s right to make its own decisions about its future and about the terms in any eventual peace treaty, and to achieve reasonable security guarantees after the war ends. He’s more neutral on Ukraine, than strongly pro Ukraine, but not opposed like Orban was.
This means that Peter Magyar can
undo the constitution changes by Orban since with a ⅔ majority he can change the constitution
dismiss the justices etc put in place by Orban
reverse the “cardinal laws” that need a ⅔ majority to change them.
return to fair voting as a result of all that.
[My own thought] since he can edit the entire constitution with the support of his party, he could also add other precautions to raise the bar to change the constitution again after he’s undone all the changes Orban made
Contents
You can get a good overview by reading the intro and then the section titles in the contents list.
I don’t do teaser titles, instead the titles are like mini abstracts. Unlike most blog posts my aim is to help scared readers to get the essence of what the blog post and the sections are about immediately, ideally wihtout even having to read them.
You can also click through to find out details.
2/3 majority win
https://vtr.valasztas.hu/ogy2026?filter=orszagos
These are not final results but Tisza is sure to retain its 2/3 majority when the final results come in on Saturday - the last few votes are from people who voted outside their constituency including those voting at foreign embassies and they tend to vote for the opposition.
Young voters helped win the election
Associated press, (and others like BBC) say it’s the younger voters that especially won the election for Peter Magyar.
Hungary doesn’t have good polling data or proper exit polls so there would be some level of speculation but based on the limited polling they have seems the young vote was the key.
Magyar is pro EU. He will immediately work to remove the anti-LGBT legislation in Hungary which will unlock funding from the EU. He will also likely unblock the EU 90 billion euros funding for Ukraine.
Peter Magyar appealed to younger voters.
Longer clip with interviews with Hungarians at the end about how they now feel there is hope.
I don’t think that JD Vance was actually trying to win seats for Orban. I think he was literally just there to give his moral support to a friend. It probably lost Orban a few seats if anything. Vance is not an experienced politician. He won his Senate seat by less than he should have for instance.
Trump doesn’t seem to think in terms of strategies for getting votes either. He seems to have won his two elections as president by a sort of combination of charisma and luck rather than strategy, doing things that any experienced politician would tell him costs him votes. And it loses him votes in the mid terms but both actual elections for some reason those antics gained him votes both times maybe just by luck.
Supports right of Ukraine to defend itself and make its own decisions about peace terms
Peter Magyar says that no other country has the right to ask Ukraine to give up territory to Russia, comparing it to giving up Hungarian counties.
He says it needs robust security guarantees after the war and stronger than the Budapest memorandum.
Peter Magyar, literally “Peter the Hungarian,” led his Tisza Party and the people of Hungary to defeat his former mentor pro-Russian Viktor Orbán.
Some have wondered about Magyar’s Ukraine views. Speaking after victory, Magyar made it clear that Ukraine has every right and duty to win.
He cited the Budapest Memorandum, signed in Hungary’s capital city in 1994, which requires that the USA protect Ukraine.
He spoke also of the massive failure of the West, including the Obama adminsitration, to enforce the security guarantees of the Budapest Memorandum in 2014. “I hope the [current] American adminsitration will be a partner in this.”
He has also said that Hungary will unblock the 90 billion euro loan
Hungary itself won’t likely fund Ukraine but they will no longer block the EU funding of Ukraine.
QUOTE STARTS
Hungary’s government will drop its opposition to the EU’s €90 billion loan to Ukraine, incoming Prime Minister Péter Magyar signaled, bringing a four-month standoff to an end.
Speaking at a press conference in Budapest, Magyar said the EU decision on the loan “was already made in December” and that the incoming Tisza administration “would like to be coherent” with previous commitments.
Viktor Orbán, who lost Sunday’s general election by a landslide, initially approved the loan at a summit of EU leaders at the end of last year, before going back on the agreement ― a breach of normal protocol. He said he wouldn’t allow the funds to be released until Ukraine repaired a pipeline carrying Russian oil through the country to Hungary.
…
Leaders won’t have to meet again to unblock the loan. Magyar signaled the decision could be taken even before his government assumes office, which should take place within the month.Even if Hungary allows the loan to go ahead, it still won’t contribute.
“I will discuss with European leaders but I personally agree that Hungary should opt out, Hungary is in a very difficult situation,” Magyar said. “We cannot take out even more loans, the Hungarian budget deficit has tripled since 2010.”.
…
While Orbán “still will be a caretaking prime minister,” he “shouldn’t make decisions over my head,” Magyar said.
https://www.politico.eu/article/peter-magyar-hints-ending-hungary-block-e90b-ukraine-loan/
Euractiv towards the end here explains how Ukraine can last out until it gets the loan by things such as spending funding earmarked for the end of the year earlier in the year. It could also do things like printing money to cover the gap.
https://www.euractiv.com/news/why-orbans-defeat-wont-yet-unblock-eus-e90-billion-ukraine-loan/
Will stop Hungarian State TV from presenting propaganda against any party
Peter Magyar on Hungarina State TV saying to the host he will stop them from presenting propaganda. He said “We will immediately suspend this deceitful service that is going on here” directly to the presenter and claims it is worse than North Korea.”
He says that all the parties will get coverage on the media.
He says at the end he expects to get 140 seats. At that point it was at 136 or 137 seats.
Why Tisza is likely to get more seats as the vote count continues through to Saturday - voters registered outside home constituencies and votes cast at foreign embassies likely favour Tisza and flip close constituencies
This is a source saying that’s possible once voters registered outside their home constituencies and votes cast at foreign embassies are cast. |
That is likely to favour Tisza and could flip close constituencies.
QUOTE STARTS
Péter Magyar’s party currently holds 136 of the 199 seats in parliament, a figure which could rise to 139 or even 140 once votes cast at foreign embassies and by voters registered outside their home constituencies are counted on 18 April. These votes will be added to the ‘Domestic Votes’ category in the table below. In recent elections, they have tended to favor the opposition.
https://politicalcapital.hu/news.php?article_read=1&article_id=3682
Likely first steps of the new government - to restore anti-corruption and rule-of-law institutions by August to get EU funding - and dismantling media propaganda
The next few sections are just linked to quotes from that same article. I can explore them further if I get time some time.
QUOTE STARTS
One of the new government’s initial steps will be to restore anti-corruption and rule-of-law institutions, as these are prerequisites for Hungary to access the billions of euros in EU cohesion and recovery funds withheld due to concerns about the rule of law and corruption under the Orbán regime. The new government must act on this front by August. Additional priorities will likely include reforming the Fidesz-organized state media apparatus, dismantling the Fidesz propaganda machine and restructuring institutions.
Although Péter Magyar promised swift leadership changes at key institutions, including the Office of the President of the Republic, the Kúria (Hungary’s highest court), the Office of the Prosecutor General, the Constitutional Court, the Media Authority, the State Audit Office and the Hungarian Competition Authority, if the incumbents refuse to resign voluntarily, this could lead to a protracted constitutional dispute and uncertainty.
The speed of these changes may also depend on how effectively Viktor Orbán can exert his influence over his appointees, since retaining these positions is in his fundamental interest. However, if any institutional leader refuses to step down, the new government can apply significant political pressure. It is also possible that institutional leaders who were loyal to Fidesz until now may gravitate towards the new government. This dynamic would be further reinforced by the fact that TISZA, with its two-thirds majority, could remove unwanted institutional leaders through constitutional amendments — or even an entirely new constitution.
…
In the new political landscape, the bandwagon effect is likely to further weaken and partially disintegrate Fidesz in the short term, especially if legal and political accountability is enforced, which the majority of TISZA voters are demanding. There would be clear grounds for such proceedings in numerous cases. A mass exodus from Fidesz’s clientelist network could follow, with many people discovering their inner dissident retroactively, as happened when the communist Kádár regime collapsed in 1989.
EU funds and greater confidence in its economy could let Tisza reform its economy
…
The TISZA government will have severely limited economic scope for maneuver, but greater confidence and expectations among economic and market actors, along with the anticipated arrival of EU funds and anti-corruption measures, could expand this scope to some extent. The significant interest burden on the country may also decrease (the forint has already begun to strengthen).
Relations with European Allies could improve quickly - and distance from Russia though not as EU puppets
…
The strong mandate will enable the TISZA government to implement a more decisive shift in foreign policy. Relations with European allies could improve quickly, and by meeting anti-corruption and rule-of-law conditionality, Hungary could gain access to EU funds. However, despite its constructive EU and NATO membership, TISZA is likely to provoke symbolic conflicts with the EU on certain issues. This is to demonstrate the promised foreign policy course that stands apart from the European mainstream, and to counter Fidesz’s attempts to label TISZA as EU puppets during the campaign.
…
Even if it does not sever all ties, the new government will begin to distance itself decisively from Russia, including in the energy sector. This will strengthen the country’s energy security and represent the first step towards rebuilding trust with Western partners. However, it would be unrealistic to expect Russian influence to disappear overnight. The Kremlin is keen to weaken the new government. Both Fidesz and Mi Hazánk could become prominent platforms for advancing Russian interests in Hungary. At the same time, Russia will likely try to court the new government as well. An equally important signal would be if the Kremlin were to distance itself from Fidesz.
https://politicalcapital.hu/news.php?article_read=1&article_id=3682
How it happened - personal contact with voters and Russian attempts to intervene led to probes into Russia / Hungary relations
And about how it happened:
QUOTE STARTS
Traditional political tools such as cross-country campaign tours, which enable personal contact with voters, proved more effective than the regime’s informational tools. Meanwhile, Fidesz and its shrinking support base became detached from reality, becoming trapped in their own information bubble. Consequently, the electoral defeat took even the regime’s own elite by surprise.
Reminiscent of the pre-1989 era, Russian influence was also unable to keep the Orbán regime in power. As we previously wrote, the question was not whether Russia would intervene in the election, but whether such intervention would be successful. Ultimately, this too was unable to override dissatisfaction with the government in Hungary, aided significantly by investigative journalism that revealed the true extent of the Russian-Hungarian relationship.
https://politicalcapital.hu/news.php?article_read=1&article_id=3682
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