Indeed. India has the clearest no first nuke policy of anyone so it won't use nukes to respond to Pakistan shooting down fighter jets or anything. Pakistan has them only for an overwhelming invasion by so many Indian soldiers its half mililon strong army can't stop them - this is not going to happen either.
They have frequent clashes and this is just another one. With likely several Indian fighter jets shot down because modern missiles are more effective than they were last time they clashed when one Indian fighter jet was shot down.
You are correct, also if one is familiar with the term Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) then it's reasonable that even Russia isn't willing to use nuclear weapons as that would invite something they can no longer come back from.
Oh Russia is not going to use nukes for sure. I talk about that in my Russia / Ukraine fact check. But not because of M.A.D. as that is out of date and never was a real doctrine. If that is supposed to mean to destroy each other's ability to fight a conventional war they never had that capability. Neither the Soviet Union nor the US / NATO ever had that ability. Nor to harm the majority of the enemy's civilian population either.
See my:
NOT in the world of M.A.D. (Mutually Assured Destruction)
If Russia was to do even a small test nuke over the Black Sea, India for one would immediately have to disavow it and so would China as both have very strong no first use policies.
Russia depends on
* oil sales to India,
* gas sales to China.
* China is now its biggest importer while Russia is only a small part of Chinese trade.
So India and China would have lots of leverage to bring it back in line.
It might even lose its UN Security Council permanent seat.
Nowadays the US and NATO more sensibly would respond to nukes with conventional, and unconventional non nuclear responses:
* conventional military strikes
* sleeper agents
* hacking
* speical ops in Russia.
This is a change they made in Trump's first term.
Especially right now if there ever was any risk which there is not, Russia is incredibly weak militarily. It can't even stop Ukrainian propeller driven drones that take hours to reach Moscow at the speed of a fast car. Never mind cruise missiles or ballistic missiles.
See my
BLOG: Many positives for Ukraine may bring peace closer
— Putin responds to psychological military levers with 3 day truce to protect his parade
The reason is I often aren't able to respond to comments for some time and the unanswered comment can scare people who come to this post for help on something else
Also even when answered the comment may scare them because they see it first.
It works much better to put comments on other topics on a special post for them.
It is absolutely fine to digress and go off topic in conversations here - this is specifically about things you want help with that might scare people.
PLEASE DON’T TELL A SCARED PERSON THAT THE THING THEY ARE SCARED OF IS TRUE WITHOUT A VERY RELIABLE SOURCE OR IF YOU ARE A VERY RELIABLE SOURCE YOURSELF - AND RESPOND WITH CARE
This is not like a typical post on substack. It is specifically to help people who are very scared with voluntary fact checking. Please no politically motivated exaggerations here. And please be careful, be aware of the context.
We have a rule in the Facebook group and it is the same here.
If you are scared and need help it is absolutely fine to comment about anything to do with the topic of the post that scares you.
But if you are not scared or don’t want help with my voluntary fact checking please don’t comment with any scary material.
If you respond to scared people here please be careful with your sources. Don’t tell them that something they are scared of is true without excellent reliable sources, or if you are a reliable source yourself.
It also matters a lot exactly HOW you respond. E.g. if someone is in an area with a potential for earthquakes there’s a big difference between a reply that talks about the largest earthquake that’s possible there even when based on reliable sources, and says nothing about how to protect themselves and the same reply with a summary and link to measures to take to protect yourself in an earthquake.
Even if they will not use nukes then conventional war between them would be disastrous for global economy as Russian invasion to Ukraine did to European economies. In future there will be more conflicts and wars, US want to invade Panama, Canada, Greenland, and bomb Middle East. Russia wants to conquer post soviet union republic like Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Moldova. China wants to rake over Taiwan and DPRK over ROK. There's no way we can solve global problems in that case.
What say you about the quote from the Pakistan Defense Minister that if India attacks Pakistan, "no other country will be allowed to live on this planet"?
They're not going to use any kind of Nukes because even they understand how devastating the effects were going to be on.
Indeed. India has the clearest no first nuke policy of anyone so it won't use nukes to respond to Pakistan shooting down fighter jets or anything. Pakistan has them only for an overwhelming invasion by so many Indian soldiers its half mililon strong army can't stop them - this is not going to happen either.
They have frequent clashes and this is just another one. With likely several Indian fighter jets shot down because modern missiles are more effective than they were last time they clashed when one Indian fighter jet was shot down.
You are correct, also if one is familiar with the term Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) then it's reasonable that even Russia isn't willing to use nuclear weapons as that would invite something they can no longer come back from.
Oh Russia is not going to use nukes for sure. I talk about that in my Russia / Ukraine fact check. But not because of M.A.D. as that is out of date and never was a real doctrine. If that is supposed to mean to destroy each other's ability to fight a conventional war they never had that capability. Neither the Soviet Union nor the US / NATO ever had that ability. Nor to harm the majority of the enemy's civilian population either.
See my:
NOT in the world of M.A.D. (Mutually Assured Destruction)
https://robertinventor.substack.com/p/why-we-do-not-risk-a-world-war-from#%C2%A7not-in-the-world-of-mad-mutually-assured-destruction
In
BLOG: Why we do NOT risk a world war from: Ukraine, the Middle East, China, North Korea, or anywhere else in the world
— next to impossible
— and longer term are headed for a future without any war
READ HERE: https://robertinventor.substack.com/p/why-we-do-not-risk-a-world-war-from
If Russia was to do even a small test nuke over the Black Sea, India for one would immediately have to disavow it and so would China as both have very strong no first use policies.
Russia depends on
* oil sales to India,
* gas sales to China.
* China is now its biggest importer while Russia is only a small part of Chinese trade.
So India and China would have lots of leverage to bring it back in line.
It might even lose its UN Security Council permanent seat.
Nowadays the US and NATO more sensibly would respond to nukes with conventional, and unconventional non nuclear responses:
* conventional military strikes
* sleeper agents
* hacking
* speical ops in Russia.
This is a change they made in Trump's first term.
Especially right now if there ever was any risk which there is not, Russia is incredibly weak militarily. It can't even stop Ukrainian propeller driven drones that take hours to reach Moscow at the speed of a fast car. Never mind cruise missiles or ballistic missiles.
See my
BLOG: Many positives for Ukraine may bring peace closer
— Putin responds to psychological military levers with 3 day truce to protect his parade
— Trump pivots to Ukraine after minerals deal
— much more ...
READ HERE: https://robertinventor.substack.com/p/many-positives-for-ukraine-that-may
PLEASE DON'T COMMENT HERE WITH POTENTIALLY SCARY QUESTIONS ABOUT ANY OTHER TOPIC: please comment here: https://robertinventor.substack.com/p/post-to-comment-on-with-off-topic-d60
The reason is I often aren't able to respond to comments for some time and the unanswered comment can scare people who come to this post for help on something else
Also even when answered the comment may scare them because they see it first.
It works much better to put comments on other topics on a special post for them.
It is absolutely fine to digress and go off topic in conversations here - this is specifically about things you want help with that might scare people.
PLEASE DON’T TELL A SCARED PERSON THAT THE THING THEY ARE SCARED OF IS TRUE WITHOUT A VERY RELIABLE SOURCE OR IF YOU ARE A VERY RELIABLE SOURCE YOURSELF - AND RESPOND WITH CARE
This is not like a typical post on substack. It is specifically to help people who are very scared with voluntary fact checking. Please no politically motivated exaggerations here. And please be careful, be aware of the context.
We have a rule in the Facebook group and it is the same here.
If you are scared and need help it is absolutely fine to comment about anything to do with the topic of the post that scares you.
But if you are not scared or don’t want help with my voluntary fact checking please don’t comment with any scary material.
If you respond to scared people here please be careful with your sources. Don’t tell them that something they are scared of is true without excellent reliable sources, or if you are a reliable source yourself.
It also matters a lot exactly HOW you respond. E.g. if someone is in an area with a potential for earthquakes there’s a big difference between a reply that talks about the largest earthquake that’s possible there even when based on reliable sources, and says nothing about how to protect themselves and the same reply with a summary and link to measures to take to protect yourself in an earthquake.
Thanks!
Even if they will not use nukes then conventional war between them would be disastrous for global economy as Russian invasion to Ukraine did to European economies. In future there will be more conflicts and wars, US want to invade Panama, Canada, Greenland, and bomb Middle East. Russia wants to conquer post soviet union republic like Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Moldova. China wants to rake over Taiwan and DPRK over ROK. There's no way we can solve global problems in that case.
What say you about the quote from the Pakistan Defense Minister that if India attacks Pakistan, "no other country will be allowed to live on this planet"?