List of more than 10 senators likely to vote against recess appointments and individual unsuitable Trump appointees - only 4 is enough to change a 53 : 47 pass to a 49 : 51 fail

Trump seems set to start his new presidency with a “battle royale” [a fight involving many combatants] with the Senate over his appointments. Not a very good way to begin if he wants to get legislation through Congress. The Senate usually defers to a president over almost all his cabinet picks. But this may be a very rare exception where many of them are rejected.

We are not likely to see them actually come to the floor and be voted down because appointees usually withdraw before the vote, if they think they are going to be rejected. Some may also be rejected before the vote. However that itself would be a political signal to Trump that the Senate is not behind his picks if many of his appointees have to withdraw without a vote.

BTW Matt Gaetz has withdrawn now. It probably means Trump knows he can’t get him through which likely also means he has given up on recess appointments since he was really keen on Matt Gaetz. See: Trump AG pick Matt Gaetz says he's withdrawing

TEXT ON GRAPHIC:

First the three remaining who voted to convict Trump in his second impeachment trial

• Susan Collins

• Lisa Murkowski

• Bill Cassidy - also a doctor who strongly supports vaccines and not likely to approve RFK

May be specifically opposed to RFK

• Chuck Grassley - costs to farmers of RFK’s ideas

• John Barrasso - physician, dodged question about RFK
  [there are two other Republican physicians who support RFK with junk science based ideas about vaccines etc but John Barrasso doesn’t seem to be in that category]

Opposed to recess appointments

• John Curtis:

Didn’t endorse Trump for 2024

• Todd Young

Likely opposed to Matt Gaetz or Tulsi Gabbard or both:

• Joni Ernst

• Thom Tillis

• Mitch McConnel - a strong character, former leader of the Senate, who is not likely to rubber stamp Matt Gaetz or Tulsi Gabbard

Also may be opposed to some candidates

• John Thune (the new leader of Republican party)

• John Cornyn who promised to fast track the appointees if selected as leader but may not feel he needs to keep to this commitment now he lost.

Only 4 needed to stop recess, unsuitable appointments and budget bills for deportation, border control, Mexican wall etc.

That is 13 so far which would reduce the vote to 40 if all of them voted against recess appointments. 50 are needed to go into recess - which would likely be stopped by filibuster anyway.

I think they will likely stand up to Trump, as a matter of principle as well as the unsuitability of the choices. That’s for constitutional reasons. The Senate is supposed to have a role double checking the president's choices to make sure they are suitable. They won't like the idea of a president trying to do an end-run around the checks and balances in the US Constitution.

This Senate approval is fundamental to the US constitution. This is by article II, Section 2, Clause 2 of the US Constitution

He shall have Power, by and with the Advice and Consent of the Senate, to make Treaties, provided two thirds of the Senators present concur; and he shall nominate, and by and with the Advice and Consent of the Senate, shall appoint Ambassadors, other public Ministers and Consuls, Judges of the supreme Court, and all other Officers of the United States, whose Appointments are not herein otherwise provided for, and which shall be established by Law: but the Congress may by Law vest the Appointment of such inferior Officers, as they think proper, in the President alone, in the Courts of Law, or in the Heads of Departments.

ArtII.S2.C2.3.1 Overview of Appointments Clause

It's a case of standing up to the president or seeing the Senate reduced in its power and no longer very effective.

Although many people think the Senate Republicans just do what Trump says, they don’t always. Trump told them to reject the bipartisan border security bill and almost all did for that one. But when he told them to reject the Ukraine aid, 22 senators rebelled.

The 22 who rebelled were:

The Senate did rebel when Trump tried to get them to stop the Ukraine bill after they capitulated on the border security bill. The Ukraine bill was a step too far and it got through. Trump specifically asked them to vote against it. But 22 Republicans rebelled. That includes 8 of the senators in my list above shown in bold.

QUOTE The 22 Senate Republicans who voted to pass the aid are: John Boozman, Shelley Moore Capito, Bill Cassidy, Susan Collins, John Cornyn, Kevin Cramer, Mike Crapo, Joni Ernst, Chuck Grassley, John Hoeven, John Kennedy, Mitch McConnell, Jerry Moran, Lisa Murkowski, Jim Risch, Mitt Romney, Mike Rounds, Dan Sullivan, John Thune, Thom Tillis, Roger Wicker, Todd Young.

Why 22 Senate Republicans defied Trump and voted for aid to Ukraine

In more detail.

For those who don’t know, although RFK has some good ideas about health - he has also some totally unscientific unsupported ideas about vaccines, fluorine in water and

• Doctors and health experts warn that just an increase in vaccine hesitancy based on the FALSE belief that vaccines cause autism would mean that we could reach the level of at least 1 in 10 kids unvaccinated When that happens then childhood diseases that were abolished from the Americas a couple of decades ago WILL return. There are many short measles outbreaks already though it is not yet endemic (present year-round). Those vaccinated will be near immune so it would be far better than last century but some kids will die of measles and if polio returns, as it already has in Gaza Strip, 1 in 100 of kids who get it are paralysed for life in a limb or their lung muscles (needing assisted breathing for the rest of their life). Some of those die.

• Dentists warn that removing SAFE fluorine in water will lead to a big upsurge in tooth decay in kids.

• Farmers would have to change how they grow crops and those who represent farming communities are worrying about unnecessary increases of costs based on junk science that is not correct.

See:

For those who don’t know, a recess appointment is about putting Congress into full recess for at least 10 days, which is enough time according to the Supreme Court for a president to appoint anyone he pleases to any vacant position for a nominally 1 year period (can be up to two years if appointed early in the previous session).

The Democrats can probably stop a full recess with filibustering with their 47 seats anyway. There are some questions of detail there about how precisely to do it and whether the Republicans could work around it. But there are enough Senators likely opposed so that they won’t need to.

I think it is reasonable to assume that any senator who would vote against Robert Kennedy would also NOT vote for a Recess appointment. It takes 50 senators to vote to go into full recess. The Republicans have a majority of 53 and so only need to lose 4 and it is impossible.

Before Kennedy can be confirmed in the Senate he first has to be approved by the Senate Finance Dommittee. There a few Republican defections could sink his chances. See: . These senators hold RFK Jr.’s fate in their hands. Here’s what they think about him.

These senators would also be expected to vote against him in the Senate.

First, Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski and Bill Cassidy who all voted to convict Trump in 2020 are senators who are not easily intimidated by Trump and will surely vote against recess appointments.

So that then leaves one more to prevent them.

Mitch McConnel is another senator who is not going to be intimidated by Trump if he doesn’t approve of any of the picks.

So that’s at least 4 unintimitadable senators.

For Robert Kennedy, the most likely opposed include Chuck Grassley who is opposed to Robert Kennedy’s ideas about changing how farmers produce food and so has that as a reason to vote against him.

Politico lists a few other examples

John Thune, South Dakota: The incoming Senate majority leader said he won’t make judgments on any nominees “at this point.”

Chuck Grassley, Iowa: A spokesperson for the senator declined to comment. In an interview with AgriTalk Radio in October, however, Grassley said there are ways to “make America Healthy Again” without “upsetting the way we produce food.”

“Whatever ideas he has about making lives … more healthy, it’s got to be compromised with producing enough food so everyone doesn’t die,” Grassley said.

Tim Scott, South Carolina: A spokesperson for Scott declined to comment. But before the election, Scott deflected when asked by CNN's Dana Bash about Kennedy's plans to remove fluoride from public water. He said then that he doesn’t have a personal relationship with Kennedy but is confident that the administration will choose “competent” and “qualified” nominees.

Scott introduced legislation with fellow Finance Committee member Bill Cassidy (R-La.) in 2018 backing water fluoridation.

. These senators hold RFK Jr.’s fate in their hands. Here’s what they think about him.

However, on Tim Scott, then in another interview before election day, he showed tentative support for Kennedy’s ideas on fluorine in water despite his previous bill:

QUOTE Trump expressed tentative support for the idea Sunday, saying he hasn’t talked to Kennedy about the issue yet, but “it sounds OK to me.”

. Tim Scott: Americans aren’t talking about fluoride

The Senate has four physician Senators, all Republican. You’d expect a doctor to be opposed to RFK but two of them seem likely to support RFK surprisingly.

Roger Marshall (R-KS) is a COVID vaccine conspiracy theorist and Rand Paul is friends with Robert Kennedy so we can discount those two as unlikely to vote against him.

Bill Cassidy seemed most likely because he supports a clinic to vaccinate kids. He said:

QUOTE “RFK Jr. has championed issues like healthy foods and the need for greater transparency in our public health infrastructure,” said Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.), a physician and the incoming chair of the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee. “I look forward to learning more about his other policy positions and how they will support a conservative, pro-American agenda.” https://www.politico.com/news/2024/11/14/rfk-jr-trump-mixed-reviews-00189711

But then he wouldn’t be expected to say at this stage if he will vote against.

Bill Cassidy is also one of the seven Republican senators who voted to convict Donald Trump in his second impeachment trial on Jan 06. The other two who are still in the Senate are Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski.

See: 7 GOP Senators Voted To Convict Trump. Only 1 Faces Voters Next Year
(Lisa Murkowski is the one who faced voters the next year).

Finally John Barrasso is the fourth physician, who dodged the question before Robert Kennedy’s pick.

Barrasso, who is a physician specializing in orthopedics, also dodged questions about whether he’d support Robert F. Kennedy Jr., an infamous vaccine and fluoride skeptic, serving in the Trump White House.

“Well, since President Trump hasn’t actually made any nominations yet along those lines, I’m not going to comment on any one individual,” the senator said.

. Sen. John Barrasso dodges when asked if Trump should maintain DOJ's independence

So there are two Republican physicians who might vote against him.

Then there are Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski who are likely to vote against most of the unqualified candidates.

So, including Chuck Grassley, Tim Scott, that makes it 4 votes against, or 5 if you include Bill Cassidy, 6 with John Barrasso, 7 if John Thune votes against.

TheHill has listed a total of 9 senators that could vote against some of the most unsuitable picks.

From those we could add 6 more that might or might not vote against Kennedy

QUOTE STARTS

Multiple Republican senators are looming as potential obstacles to President-elect Trump’s controversial Cabinet picks, especially his two most polarizing choices: former Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) and Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Trump can afford three defections within the Senate GOP conference and still get his picks confirmed.

But four Republican senators would be enough to sink any of his nominees, and two moderates — Sens. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) and Susan Collins (R-Maine) — have already voiced deep reservations about Gaetz, who was embroiled in a federal sex trafficking investigation, of leading the Justice Department.

Here are the senators who could stymie Trump’s nominees.

…

John Curtis:

Curtis has already signaled he would not support putting the Senate into an extended recess to allow Trump to circumvent the confirmation process by making recess appointments.

…

“Senator-elect Curtis believes that every president is afforded a degree of deference to select his team and make nominations,” Curtis’s chief of staff, Corey Norman, told KSL-TV in Salt Lake City. “He also firmly believes in and is committed to the Senate’s critical role to confirm or reject nominations based on information and insight from confirmation hearings.”
….
Todd Young

He did not endorse Trump for president in 2024 and has criticized him for refusing to call Russian President Vladimir Putin a war criminal.

…

He also faulted Trump for the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol but did not vote to convict him of inciting insurrection.

…

Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.)

Thom Tillis is not afraid to play the role of Republican maverick if he feels strongly about a nominee or an issue, and he’s already suggesting Gaetz might not have much support in the Senate.

…

Mitch McConnel

Yet McConnell, an institutionalist and defense hawk, is not likely to rubber-stamp Trump’s nomination of Gaetz to head the Justice Department if he thinks it would undermine public confidence in the nation’s top law enforcement institution.

“Looking at his track record, he’s never cowed to Trump on things, especially as they relate to the Senate and the Senate’s role,” a Senate Republican aide said.

…

Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa)

Joni Ernst told The Hill that Gaetz has an “uphill climb” to securing enough votes to win confirmation, and she’s taking a wait-and-see approach to Hegseth and Tulsi Gabbard, the former Democratic congresswoman from Hawaii who is Trump’s pick serve as director of national intelligence.

…

Ernst lost her race to become Senate Republican Conference chair and may be more inclined to break with her party now that she will no longer be a member of the elected leadership.

Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas)

John Cornyn pledged to get Trump’s nominees through the Senate quickly when he was running against Senate Republican Whip John Thune (S.D.) and Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) to become the next Senate majority leader.

The Texan, however, lost that race, which could give him more freedom to criticize Trump’s picks, especially if he doesn’t think they’re qualified for the highest-profile Cabinet roles.

. The 9 GOP senators who could derail Trump’s Cabinet picks

So - we can’t see the future but you can see why many thought RFK was unlikely to be confirmed in the Senate and why it is a surprise that Trump selected him for a position that needs Senate confirmation.

Also why it is likely that several other picks fail confirmation, for ones that are very clearly unfit / unqualified.

Far lower bar than voting to convict in an impeachment trial

Convicting a president of impeachment is a very high bar. Those 7 that convicted Trump in his second trial were the first time ANY senator had voted to convict a president of their own party.

And though to many including judges on Trump's Jan 06 case it is clear he was instigating an insurrection, the US freedom of speech is extraordinarily broad and they could feel this was something that needs a proper trial.

If it was the UK it is just a vote of confidence. Similarly to the speaker in the House in the USA and it is as easy to oust a UK prime minister as a US speaker.

But the US president is independently elected by the people. He or she can only be removed for misconduct or for the 14th Amendment incapacity to serve. And the level of misconduct needed to remove him needs to be high.

It's very different from just not approving a Trump appointee.

See also my:

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