Trump won’t be able to pass anything except blandest partisan laws or bipartisan with Democrats - with only a 220 : 215 majority in House and 47 Democrats can filibuster to stop most laws in Senate

This is for anyone worried about Trump becoming a dictator or crashing the US economy etc etc. No those things won't happen. The US economy is very robust. It has a strong constitution and strong protection of rights.

Please check this out first if you haven’t seen it:

BLOG: Many things to restrain what Trump can do in USA and to insulate NATO from what he can do to affect Europe - and the US economy is strong already so he has a fair bit of leeway for making mistakes

This is not to attempt to influence policy in any way and not to attempt to change anyone’s political views or to turn anyone away from supporting Trump.

This is just to help people scared of what Trump would do. It may also help Trump supporters to moderate their expectations of what he can do.

Th

Trump can’t issue orders with executive orders unless already specifically given that power by Congress

Trump will only be able to make changes with executive orders in areas of responsibility delegated to the president by Congress.

Many people don't understand and think of them as like instructions from an absolute monarch. No not at all.

Example

• Trump CAN’T issue an executive order to ban abortion.

A president can only use executive orders to order things that Congress has given him the power to do.

Congress hasn't given the president the power to ban abortion, so he can't do it.

Also a president can’t change the law and he can’t change the US constitution. He doesn’t have that power.

He needs a law passed in Congress to ban abortion - or to give the president the power to ban abortion - but this like most laws requires 60 votes in the Senate

.

Text on graphic:

Democrat support is needed for almost all laws

Democrats have 47 seats in the Senate.

- 40 is enough to stop almost all laws.

- Harris planned a filibuster carveout to codify Roe.

- Republicans won't do that for an abortion ban because it would be too easy to reverse

- two Republican senators Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski oppose

other Republican senators and want to codify Roe to protect abortion.

Screenshot from washingtonpost …/elections/results/2024/11/05/senate/

You can also follow them here Senate Election 2024 Live Results: Republicans Take Control

Some bills can be passed without 60 seats in the Senate by a method called “reconciliation”. This can be done three times every legislative session and the bills have to be connected to the budget - things that need extra funding.

They also have to be bills that change mandatory funding. Discretionary funding bills can be filibustered.

For more details see SECTION: Any changes in discretionary funding needs bipartisan support - because it can be filibustered unlike mandatory funding changes - this is why haggling often leads to government shutdowns

in BLOG: Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency is advisory only and ends July 4th - Congress sets discretionary funding - $2 trillion of saving is impossible and a president can't close departments

This is how Biden passed the Inflation Reduction Act. He had only 50 Senators so he had to get all 50 Democrat senators behind it. Everyone from Bernie Sanders to Joe Manchin. He joked it was like having 50 presidents who all had to agree.

And — but all kidding aside, it means we got 50 presidents, and everything is razor’s edge. And there’s only a majority of how many in the House now? We have — I think it’s — I think it’s like 9, 10 — something like that.

. Remarks by President Biden at Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Reception | The White House

Well with 53 Republican Senators it will be a bit easier in the Senate but then the House is far far harder for Trump.

Slim 2 seat majority - every Republican congressman has a veto on partisan bills - after allowing for Matt Gatz resignation and Trump’s two House of Representatives appointments to the Cabinet

Their majority is only 220 : 215. This means that it only takes 3 Republicans to vote against a partisan bill and it will fail.

To make it worse, Matt Gaetz has resigned and Trump wants to appoint two currently serving Republican representatives to the Cabinet, Lori Chavez-DeRemer from Oregon to serve as Secretary of Labor and Elise Stefanik from New York to serve as Ambassador to the United Nations, see Second cabinet of Donald Trump

If they accept their posts that reduces the Republicans in the House to 217 : 215 until they are replaced. If one Republican votes against it becomes a tie. When there is a tie vote there isn’t any tie break in the House, the bill is just “lost”. See What happens if there's a tie vote in the House?

This means that every Republican in the House has the same veto power as the president against any bill supported only by Republicans. It’s like having 217 presidential vetoes this time. It will be impossible in practice to get anything passed without Democrat support. See later in this post the section about the 5 factions of Republicans and the very hard to placate Freedom Caucus MAGA republicans.

It will a huge challenge to pass anything that isn’t bipartisan even for the few bills about only mandatory funding that they can pass without the filibuster

.

Text on graphic: Will be hard to select a new speaker or pass partisan bills.

The Republican majority is 3 seats

- Most members of ALL FIVE Republican factions have to agree on any partisan bills

- many bills will need to be bipartisan with Democrats.

House races: graphic for washingtonpost…/elections/results/2024/11/05/house/

See also: House Election 2024 Live Results

Many senators who are prepared to stand up to him - with only 4 needed to stop any budget bill or confirmation of unsuitable appointee

Example of the divisions in Republicans it took 14 ballots over 3 weeks to elect Mike Johnson as new Speaker of the House - Democrats took one day to elect Hakeem Jeffries unanimously as their minority leader

When McCarthy was removed as speaker in the fall of 2023 then the Republican party went through four attempts at a speaker to get to Mike Johnson. Before him Scalise, Jordan and Emmer all lost their votes.

It took 14 ballots and three weeks from October 3 to October 24 to elect a new speaker. This was partly because of the small minority.

But it’s not just that. The Democrats voted for their new speakerr Hakeem Jeffries unanimously. They could have voted for him as their speaker in just one day, with only a 1 seat majority.

It’s a good example of how much harder it is for the divisive Republican party to achieve a consensus than for the Democrats.

See Democratic nomination

and Republican nomination

in the Wikipedia article

. October 2023 Speaker of the United States House of Representatives election - Wikipedia

Probably they will just re-elect Mike Johnson but if for some reason he is removed or retires then it will be very hard for them to replace him again.

Trump’s plan to bully Republicans into passing his big bill can’t work

Trump is not good at working across the aisle like Biden was and it's highly unlikely he can achieve a similarly strong Republican originated bipartisan bill. It's not impossible and he can try.

But his current plan is to try to bully all the Republicans in the House and Senate into supporting a single bill with tax cuts, with the deportation funding and lots more funding and raising the debt limit at the same time to pay for it all. That is just not going to work.

Bloomberg looked only at enacted debt limit rises. There are 47 House Republicans who have never voted for a debt limit rise that became law.

TEXT ON GRAPHIC

Bloomberg Analysis

Trump’s big obstacle with his expensive promises such as deportation and border security

• 47 Republicans have always voted against debt limit rises

So he needs bipartisan support from Democrats for expensive projects

The New York Times looked more generally at the ones who vote against even any attempt to raise the debt limit.

Trump has 25 Republicans who always vote against any attempt to raise the debt limit. The same 25 would surely be very wary of adding potentially a trillion dollars over the next decade to deport illegal immigrants (by one estimate of the potential long term cost to deport them all).

38 Republicans voted no to lifting the debt ceiling.

25 of those have never voted to raise the debt limit.

. Meet the 38 Republicans Who Defied Trump on the Spending and Debt Deal

So, for example, it’s not very plausible that Trump is able to find the funding to do large-scale mass deportation.

For more on this:

Trump can't build a prison for 30,000 in Guantanamo bay - Congress would never vote to build a pointless $3 billion+ facility - largest in the world - just deflecting from his failed Federal freeze

Why it is so hard for Republicans to agree on anything - 5 factions of the current Congress from moderate establishment to Pro Trump insurgents who fight everyone else and will have to lead in the next Congress

So - why is it so hard for the Republicans to agree on anything?

It’s because it is now divided into 5 factions with very little in common with some of them. In particular the pro Trump faction disagrees with everyone else on most things.

This is for the current House - some of the members may change in the new House.

QUOTE STARTS

Moderate establishment

These Republicans side with the broader GOP on most issues but are the members most likely to find common ground with Democrats. They’ve been known to attack leadership or their colleagues who are further to the right — or at least disagree with them. They’re often members of bipartisan groups like the Problem Solvers Caucus.

Prominent members: Reps. David Joyce of Ohio, Young Kim of California, Nancy Mace of South Carolina.

Conservative establishment

They’re part of the establishment and/or party leadership but still boast conservative records. They’re sometimes willing to speak out against members to their right, but generally try to be peacekeepers. In a nutshell: These Republicans straddle the line between the moderate and pro-Trump wings of the party.

Prominent members: Reps. Elise Stefanik of New York, Tom Emmer of Minnesota and [now former] House Speaker Kevin McCarthy.

Far-right establishment

These are the conservatives who likely align with the Freedom Caucus ideologically but make fewer waves. They’re the preferred leaders of the Tea party conservatives and pro-Trump insurgent factions.

Prominent members: Reps. Steve Scalise of Louisiana, Patrick McHenry of North Carolina.

Tea party conservative

Here are the Freedom Caucus members who are driven by ideology. They’re often associated with conservative groups like the Club for Growth.

Prominent members: Reps. Jim Jordan of Ohio, Byron Donalds of Florida, Chip Roy of Texas.

[call for lower taxes combined with decreased government spending] leading to reduction of national debt and federal budget deficit, named after the Boston Tea Party, a protest against taxation by the UK that led to the US independence Tea Party movement - Wikipedia]

Pro-Trump insurgent

These are the rabble-rousers. They’re led by Trump but largely avoid criticizing him publicly, even if they don’t fully embrace his views. Most of them voted against certifying President Biden’s 2020 electoral victory. Their beliefs are malleable, and more motivated by grievance more than ideology.

Prominent members: Reps. Matt Gaetz of Florida, Lauren Boebert of Colorado, Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia.

For the list see: The 5 Main Factions Of The House GOP

The reason it took so long for the Republicans to appoint a replacement speaker for Speaker Kevin McCarthy. was because of all these factions that couldn't agree on a speaker. They had to vote many times before they finally got a majority for Speaker Mike Johnson. So - it would be like that and more so for some complex bill, say on border security.

With a narrow house majority Trump can only pass bills supported by ALL OF:

• Moderate establishments

• Conservative establishments

• Far-right establishments

• Tea party conservatives

• Pro-Trump insurgents

If he can’t do that he needs the support of Democrats.

So that's the problem for Trump. These groups find it very hard to agree on anything. Especially the pro Trump insurgents.

With Trump as president they will have the loudest voice but they are the hardest for anyone else to agree with. The 5 Main Factions Of The House GOP

The likely majority in the House is now 3 to 5. It’s not quite the same as for a 1 seat majority, with 218 extra presidents in that analogy of Biden’s 50 presidents.

But it is pretty close. The Democrats do manage to get total agreement on some things. But it’s hard for them too for something important.

With such a small House majority, it’s hard to get all except 5 out of 222 people to agree on anything - and especially when you look at the 20+ MAGA extremists.

Trump’s 20+ Freedom Caucus MAGA extremists - like trying to get 3 out of 20+ wannabe Trump’s to agree on something when they are all willing to break rules to get what they want

This is a transcript from Congresswoman Schultz. She is a democrat who has experience trying to work with the Republicans in the last Congress and she says "the Republicans in the House of Representatives have not been able to organize their way out of a paper bag. " She also says " the electorate will need our votes to do that because they have a very large group of Freedom Caucus Maga extremists who don't want to do those things and want government to be broken. ".

TRANSCRIPT STARTS

Congresswoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz. BBC News America 11/11/2024

Q. You mentioned working across the aisle. What avenues do you see for bipartisan cooperation with the second Trump administration going forward.

A. Well there's a few ways this could play out. One is that the Republicans in the House of Representatives have not been able to organize their way out of a paper bag.

The only reason that most major legislation passed is because Democrats provided the votes and the 118th Congress passed it under Hakeen Jeffries' leadership.

And whether it is making sure government doesn't shut down, and passing a budget or lifting the debt ceiling or other major legislation, the electorate will need our votes to do that because they have a very large group of Freedom Caucus Maga extremists who don't want to do those things and want government to be broken.

The other way is that we can sit down and reach across the aisle and try to find some common ground. That will be challenging but I know that we have the majority of our caucus on our side of the aisle that are prepared to do that and we'll see, should the Republican majority if there is one wants to meet us in the middle or wants to be team extreme as they have been over the last several years.

END TRANSCRIPT

They will find it hard to pass anything on border security, or budgets, or any funding for deporting illegal immigrants or funding for the wall with Mexico without Democrat support in the House.

This is from the current administration:

QUOTE STARTS

Members of the far-right Freedom Caucus and other right-wing House members see themselves as courageously doing the people’s work. They believe they are reining in government and taking on what they call a corrupt “uniparty” of Republicans and Democrats who conspire with rich donors and special interests to bankrupt the nation and beat down the average American.

Democrats consider them dangerous, out-of-control radicals, and even some of their Republican colleagues regard them as misguided outliers determined to impose their views on their party and the nation. But neither has found a way to overcome their guerrilla tactics, which include jettisoning decades of tradition and openly defying their own party on the House floor.

“The problem is we are being dragged around by 20 people when 200 of us are in agreement,” said Representative Mike Simpson, Republican of Idaho and a senior member of the Appropriations Committee. “As long as we let those 20 drag us around, we are going to get these kinds of results. At some point in time, you’ve got to say, ‘We’re done.’”

. The Wrecking-Ball Caucus: How the Far Right Brought Washington to Its Knees

Though they are pro Trump their disruptive approaches to convention and House procedures will likely make it hard for them to achieve anything without help from the Democrats.

Video about them:

. The Freedom Caucus Was Designed To Disrupt

Trump doesn’t have Biden’s talent for compromise and working across divisions - will be hard to pass ANYTHING tricky to agree on like a new immigration bill

Trump’s natural response is to just try to bully them all into approving some bill or other but that won't work. And he doesn’t have Biden’s talent for working across the aisle. He never did in his first term and no reason to suppose his second term will be different.

So how are they going to pass a border security bill? Or anything even if it can be done with reconciliation?

So we can expect the legislation to be either bipartisan or else uncontroversial moderate.

Anything at all controversial for any Republicans is unlikely to pass.

The Democrats do manage to vote en bloc on some issues in the House. But the Republicans find it far harder.

There is no way they can pass any legislation that's far right given the small House majority even with reconciliation.

They will have a bit more play if they get a majority of say 4 or 5 or even more but that's still not that many to remove from all those factions to get agreement.

I don't see much discussion of this issue yet, see lots of people saying that with a trifecta Trump can pass his agenda but how can he with such a divided house?

They came together enough to support him for the election but not to pass bills that's more tricky.

Example from history - Trump had a trifecta in 2016 but never was able to pass legislation to build the wall or to repeal Obamacare

We also see this from Trump’s personal history.

In his first 2 years he had a trifecta with a majority of 241 to 194 in the House 2016 United States House of Representatives elections - Wikipedia

Also 54 to 46 in the Senate 2016 United States Senate elections - Wikipedia

Yet he wasn't able to repeal Obamacare and he wasn't able to get ANY FUNDING FOR THE WALL. That was something he could have passed under reconciliation if he had the votes but he never managed it. His section of funding was eventually done under an emergency authorization shifting a small amount of funding from another part of the budget to use for the wall.

So he has a track record of not being able to pass legislation with a far more favourable first 2 years than Biden with a much larger margin in the Senate.

Biden was able to pass the Inflation Reduction Act with 50 Senators who all had to agree fro Bernie Sanders all the way to Joe Manchin - he joked it was like having to work with 50 other presidents

By comparison, Biden had a house majority of 222 to 213 2020 United States House of Representatives elections - Wikipedia

And senate majority of 48 + 2 independents that caucus with Democrat to 50 2020 United States Senate elections - Wikipedia

Yet was able to pass the Inflation Reduction Act along party lines.

Trump likely to get nothing major passed in his first 2 years and then to lose either the House or Senate

Trump will have a far more challenging situation this time with a House majority near certain less than for Biden and the Senate is easier for him but the number of factions in the House makes it next to impossible for him to pass anything that is at all challenging or controversial for Republicans.

Then in 2026 he will have his mid-terms. And in the mid-terms after 2 years of not passing any significant legislation, likely not even a border bill - he will likely blame all this on the Democrats but as the president in power then it will not work very well.

He likely loses control of the House or Senate or both for his last two years. This year the Senate was unfavourable for Democrats but in 2026 the particular mix of the third of senators up for re-election favours Democrats.

Trump will also have the same problem of the first term of a revolving door presidency - Elon Musk won’t be Trump’s poodle

Few people will be able to stand being absolutely loyal to Trump for 4 years. The most obvious split is with Musk. There is no way Musk will submit to be Trump's poodle. As the world's wealthiest man and someone larger than life with strong and often bizarre and eccentric views on numerous things it is not remotely credible that he will remain aligned with Trump for long on much.

That is a prediction of John Ryley, former head of Sky News. Asked to comment on the BBC he said

QUOTE STARTS

I think what you should remember is that Musk is a big character. And when you have two big characters together they don't always agree. So I think this will end in tears.

And last month when Trump was interviewed by Joe Rogan the podcast host he said the biggest mistake he made of his presidency is who he appointed at the start. He said there were bad people and there were disloyal people.

He will want all the people he appoints for the next 4 weeks, 74 days, to be ultra loyal. Musk probably won't be ultraloyal He is his own boss, he is a a very wealthy guy, richest guy on the planet. He is not going to take what Trump says always to heart. And he will be a troublemaker. And I thought the comparison you made earlier with Isambel Kingdom Brunel, great Victorian innovater. He was a very difficult guy as well. And I think Musk is probably quite a difficult guy.

2:26 into US Election 2024 - US Election 202

TEXT ON GRAPHIC:

Elon Musk won’t be Trump’s poodle. Trump with Patton, a Goldendoodle cross between poodle and golden retriever.

• only president never to have a pet.

Photo of Patton from: Trump's First Dog $PATTON (@patton_on_sol) on X

• at one point there seemed to be some potential for him to choose Patton as a pet but he never did.

Donald Trump is the only president never to have a pet. The Trump family are not known to have any pets.

. United States presidential pets - Wikipedia

However at one point there was hope he might adopt Patton a Goldendoodle - Wikipedia

So I thought it was a good graphic to use to illustrate the obvious - that Elon Musk won’t be Trump’s poodle.

I think Robert Kennedy also will cause lots of internal splits. Many people will very much not like him being in charge of public health and safety in the USA. There is no way he gets a Senate approved position. But whatever role he gets I expect lots of pushback from aides to the president when he does anti-science things.

He is likely to be a difficult guy too. Even with his promise to Trump to not touch anything to do with oil. In his bid to be a Democrat presidential candidate, Robert Kennedy pledged to ban all fracking throughout the USA. Not just on federal lands.

. RFK Jr says he would ban fracking in 10-point plan to tackle plastics pollution

That by itself is an open split. To appoint someone to a position on health who wants to ban fracking when Trump wants to "drill baby drill".

How long will Trump and Kennedy remain aligned? And Kennedy is another larger than life character who is not easily going to be Trump's poodle.

And both Musk and Kennedy will find they don't have the ability to fire and hire public servants like Dr Fauci who are appointed by excellence rather than politically. Biden's new rule to prevent Trump’s “schedule F” will mean they can't do it.

It is now so robust that it could only be replaced by an equally strong rule to protect the American people from unqualified public servants.

For more details see my:
SECTION: Schedule F will be impossible - no way that Trump can replace lead experts in medicine with an unqualified amateur lawyer, say, because he will have to prove in the courts that this substitution benefits the American people

When Musk and Kennedy find they can't fire people and hire their favourites e.g. for the head of the NIH or CDC etc. they will likely rebel maybe resign, maybe be fired.

I don't think Musk has a clue about this, one of the disadvantages of being so wealthy if you aren't also naturally humble or take cares to counteract the effects. He surrounds himself with an echo chamber of people who tell him how great he is.

So - I don't think Trump has learnt anything from his first term from his choices this time around. It will be another revolving door administration.

He is stuck with Vance. A president can never fire his vice president. Vance could resign.

At present they are in agreement on everything but would that continue for four years? MIke Pence was loyal to Trump all the way to the end when Trump went one step too far and told him to overthrow the election results on Jan 06. he wouldn’t do that.

Vance says he WOULD carry out an order like that But that doens’t mean he would do everything Trump says - he likely has things he also wouldn’t be prepared to do.

Anyway we’ll see.

But ti seems a rather dysfunctional team.

The good news is the US democracy is very strong and the various departments are self-operationg and it can continue through all sorts of issues.

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