Putin "Pants on Fire": Ukraine finds targets with its own commercial satellite - Ukrainians launch ATACMS or Stormshadow WITHOUT help - Sold to many countries - does NOT make USA or UK combatants
- Ukraine already fires US missiles FROM Russia to Russia
This is Pants on Fire reasoning by Putin for his new and latest red line. Putin claimed FALSELY
that Ukrainians are not able to enter coordinates into HiMARS - FALSE - PANTS ON FIRE - just requires them to type numbers into a numpad
that Ukrainians depend on NATO for satellite images - FALSE - PANTS ON FIRE - was only true up to 18th August 2022 as they now have their own satellite they bought from a Finnish company.
Based on these two "Pants on Fire lies" Putin said FALSELY that if the US gives Ukrainians permission to use ATACMS against targets in Russian territory it MUST have NATO soldiers collaborating with Ukraine to enter in the coordinates.
Based on this Putin claimed FALSELY that if US and UK give Ukraine permission to use the ATACMS against targets in Russia that this will be the start of a war between NATO and Russia.
This is NONSENSE and PUTIN KNOWS IT IS NONSENSE.
As soon as the Ukrainians use the first ATACMS missiles Putin will forget about this argument. We know this because he has used this PANTS ON FIRE argument many times before including when Ukraine first started to use HiMARS back in June 2022, and he always forgets it after the red line is crossed.
Here is a summary graphic
c
TEXT ON GRAPHIC:
After Ukraine first uses ATACMS against targets in Russia
All Putin will do is to go "meh" and say FALSELY that:
ATACMS are 40 years out of date
Russia has far better systems
we shoot them all down
nothing happened (even if ATACMS destroy 100 fighter jets and helicopters)
Russia is winning this war
no longer claims NATO countries operate them
Very predictable. Happened with HiMARS in summer 2022
+ NUMEROUS times since then for Mig 29s, Leopard tanks, F-16s ATACMS ...
ALWAYS does this.
Graphic Putin_after_ATACMS.png from: Grinning Vladimir Putin suggests support for Kamala Harris as U.S. accuses Russia of election interference
[Nothing to do with this topic but I thought his reaction was similar enough to be relevant here]If you can type into a numpad you can enter HiMARS coords
Ukraine's "People's satellite" gets them 10 images a daysince August 18, 2022.
Fact checking Putin's lies: rating Pants on Fire.
[Rest of the text and sources of graphics below]
In case the reader doesn’t know this, Ukraine ALREADY has the ATACMS and Stormshadow missiles. They use them every day against targets as far away as Crimea and the Black Sea. What Ukraine wants is permission to use these missiles against targets in Russia itself. And Ukraine ALREADY uses the shorter range GLMRS which is ALSO launched from HiMARS in Kursk oblast FROM Russia and against targets IN Russia.
It is very hard to understand why there would be any problem with using ATACMS in the same way.
Putin’s PANTS ON FIRE reasoning is
He claims FALSELY that Ukraine depends on satellite images taken by the US to work out the coordinates “This is possible only with the use of satellite data, which Ukraine does not have”
Ukraine’s People’s Satellite was publicly crowdfunded and they announced the purchase on August 18, 2022. Ukraine’s ‘people’s satellite’ wreaks havoc on Russian targets
They do use GPS but the EU or US is no more responsible for how Ukraine uses GPS than they are responsible for how civilians use the civilian version of GPS for their plane flights, driving cars, navigating ships etc.He claims FALSELY that only NATO personnel can input the coordinates into the HiMARS missile system.
“The second, and very important, perhaps key, is that flight missions to these missile systems can, in fact, only be carried out by military personnel of NATO countries. Ukrainian servicemen cannot do this. “
The first Ukrainians were trained to use HiMARS in a 3 week training course from 3 to 24 June 2022. HiMARS is much easier to use than many of the far more clunky Soviet era missile systems that both Ukraine and Russians use
. Ukrainian servicemen begin their HIMARS trainingAs soon as Ukraine does use ATACMS Putin will just go “Meh” and ignore it or denigrate ATACMs just as he has done for
- HiMARS and M777 strikes into Russian territory since May 2024
- NATO supplied tanks and Bradly fighting vehicles, M777 artillery and HiMARS operating ON RUSSIAN TERRITORY in Kursk oblast
- F-16 fighter jets
- HiMARS when first used in spring 2022
- first use of HiMARS against Crimea
- first use of ATACMS
- first supply of Mig29s to Ukraine
- first supply of Western tanks to Ukraine
- first supply of Patriot air defences
- first supply of ANY air defences
etc etc.
Putin will NOT do this because he isn't stark raving mad. It is the opposite. Despite all his bluff and bluster he is very risk averse as the Institute for the Study of War so often puts it.
TWEET “Putin is a very risk averse individual. He is extremely calculated, and he oftentimes really prefers not to make urgent, rash political decisions that would specifically impact the health of his regime,” said ISW’s Russia deputy team lead @ KatStepanenko
See my:
We saw that extraordinary level of risk aversion with the Kursk incursion where the Ukrainians are using HiMARS already on Rusisan soil against targets in Russia. All Putin did is dither for 3 weeks giving Ukraine time to dig in and set many traps for the Russians - and then ordered his army to get Ukraine out of there by 1st October.
Russia tried a counteroffensive against Ukraine in Kursk oblast that failed on 11th September. This was its first attempt at a serious counteroffensive in Kursk oblast to try to push out Ukraine. More on this below. Russia didn't think for a moment of attacking NATO. What good would that do? None.
YES UKRAINIANS CAN OPERATE HIMARS AND TYPE THE COORDINATES INTO THE NUMBER PAD - PUTIN’S FIRST “PANTS ON FIRE“ ARGUMENT
If you can type your pin using a numpad, you can enter coordinates into HiMARS. It’s bizarre to suggest that Ukrainian soldiers are incapable of doing this.
.
TEXT ON GRAPHIC:
Sgt. Richard Lakely enters new coordinates on his High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HiMARS)
Bizarre claim by Putin that Ukrainians can’t do this.
HiMARS_operation.png
RIGHT NOW Ukrainians are operating HiMARS on Russian soil against other targets IN RUSSIA in Kursk oblast.
They have to enter the coordinates 6 times for 6 different rockets for GLMRS and only once at a time for ATACMS.
So if this is such a big deal then what's special about ATACMS? It isn’t.
The export operators of HiMARS are Poland, Romania, Jordan, Singapore, Ukraine, and the UAE.
Americans can do it. British soldiers can do it. Poles can do it Romanians can do it.
Ukrainians get 3 weeks training in how to do it. Why out of all those operators would the Ukrainians be unable to enter the target coordinates? It makes NO SENSE WHATSOEVER
There is no way that the UAE say or Singapore requires British operators to target the missile whenever they fire it, they would never buy such a missile.
For anyone who doesn’t know, this is a photo of HiMARS from the outside
:
TEXT ON GRAPHIC:
HiMARS launching GLMRS missile.
It’s “Shoot and scoot”
stop and enter coords
raise platform
hit fire
lower platform
move on BEFORE it hits the target
Ukrainians do this MANY TIMES A DAY
HiMARS_launch.png
Image from: File:HIMARS - missile launched.jpg - Wikimedia Commons
It is “shoot and scoot”. Each HiMARS launches 6 GLMRS rockets. They enter the six coordinates, they stop and have to raise the launch tubes to an angle as in the photo, hit fire, they don’t need to monitor the rockets after the launch but immediately lower the tubes and drive away. This means that by the time they reach the target the launcher is long gone and Russia can’t target it.
ATACMS is if anything EASIER to use because it only needs the Ukrainians to enter one coordinate each time. They will then need to go and get another ATACMS missile to reload then scoot off to somewhere else to fire that one
NO WAY THAT THE EXPORT VERSION OF STORMSHADOW HAS TO BE TARGETED BY THE UK OR FRANCE
I can’t find details of how Stormshadow is programmed and it may be more complex. However the export version is operated by Egypt, Greece, Italy, India, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, see: Stormshadow operators.
As with the ATACMS, they have to be able to operate it independently of the UK and France. There is no way that the UAE say or Egypt requires British operators to target the missile whenever they fire it, they would never buy such a missile.
This is from Fabian Hoffman today, an expert on nuclear policy.
The notion that Ukraine couldn't operate Western missile systems due to technical reasons lacks empirical support. These weapon systems are designed for independent use by export customers.
Ukraine likely lacks the capability or does not collect certain types of ELINT [Electronics Intelligence https://www.nsa.gov/portals/75/documents/about/cryptologic-heritage/historical-figures-publications/publications/misc/elint.pdf] that could enhance missile survivability during flight if incorporated into preflight planning and targeting software.
However, this wouldn't stop Ukraine from conducting a simpler targeting process without this type of intelligence.
https://x.com/FRHoffmann1/status/1835677995912069627
Fabian Hoffmann is an expert from Oslo University who has written many papers, contributes to War on the Rocks and Washington Post and is often on TV
Brief bio:
YES UKRAINE HAS ITS OWN “PEOPLE’ SATELLITE” WHICH IT HAS USED SINCE AUGUST 18TH, 2022 FOR ITS IMAGING - PUTIN’S SECOND “PANTS ON FIRE“ ARGUMENT
And this shows one of the photos taken from orbit by Ukraine’s “People’s satellite” which as you can see is easily high enough resolution for ATACMS or other missile strikes. These missiles though ultra precise for a missile can typically hit a target to within a meter or two, the photos have a resolution of a quarter of a meter.
.
TEXT ON GRAPHIC:
Provides images for Ukraine since Aug 18, 2022
crowdfunded by $17 million raised by Ukrainians (Ptrytula's charity)
Photo of Russia's Kerch bridge by Ukraine's "People's satellite"
- takes ultra high res photos 24/7
- works at night, in cloud, rain
- because it photographs using radar instead of light
Resolution < 0.25 m (< 1 foot)
Images received in hours.
Let's Ukraine operate independently of NATO, over 10 images a day.
Kyiv Independent story with the image of Kerch bridge taken by the satellite I use for this graphic. Ukraine's crowdfunded satellite takes over 4,000 images of Russian facilities, military intelligence says
People's_satellite.png
So Putin will just go “meh” as always
TEXT ON GRAPHIC:
After Ukraine first uses ATACMS against targets in Russia
All Putin will do is to go "meh" and say FALSELY that:
ATACMS are 40 years out of date
Russia has far better systems
we shoot them all down
nothing happened (even if ATACMS destroy 100 fighter jets and helicopters)
Russia is winning this war
no longer claims NATO countries operate them
ALWAYS does this.
Graphic Putin_after_ATACMS.png from: Grinning Vladimir Putin suggests support for Kamala Harris as U.S. accuses Russia of election interference
[Nothing to do with this topic but I thought his reaction was similar enough to be relevant here]
SUMMARY FROM INSTITUTE OF STUDY OF WAR - JUST A ROUTINE BLUFF FROM PUTIN - JUST USING THIS TO COERCE UKRAINE’S ALLIES NOT GENUINELY BECAUSE HE PLANS TO FIGHT NATO
The Institute for the Study of War so no difference between this and Putin’s numerous other bluffs throughout the war.
[I see no difference either and am puzzled by the over-reaction of the media this time]
Putin and other Kremlin officials routinely accuse the West of escalating and being directly involved in the war as part of the Kremlin's ongoing reflexive control campaign aimed at coercing the West into making policy decisions that benefit the Kremlin.
The Kremlin has also demonstrated that it is unwilling to escalate in response to Ukraine's ongoing incursion into Kursk Oblast, which has lasted for over a month and has included Western-provided equipment and conducting strikes with Western-provided HIMARS within Russia.
Putin's September 11 rhetoric is therefore not an inflection in typical Russian rhetoric about the risk of escalation of the war in Ukraine and is likely intended to influence the ongoing Western policy debates about Ukraine's ability to strike military targets in Russia with Western-provided precision weapons.
In simpler language:
This is normal, Putin and the Kremlin always do this,
They accuse the West of escalating and they always (FALSELY) accuse the West of being directly involved in the war.
They do this only to coerce the West into making policy decisions that benefit the Kremlin
The Kremlin has made it very clear it is not willing to escalate [e..g by attacking a NATO country like Estonia] by making no response to the Kursk incursion
The Kursk incursion has been going on for a month and includes Western equipment and does strikes already with Western provided HiMARS within Russia
The Russian rhetoric is likely designed to influence Western policy debates over whether to let Ukraine strike military targets in Russia with Western provided missiles.
Techy details here:
PUTIN CAN’T WIN THIS WAR BY ATTACKING NATO, ONLY LOSE MORE QUICKLY
Here is an analogy that may help. Do you agree that it makes no sense for a boxer to attack the world heavyweight chamption in the middle of a fight that you are losing against a dwarf - and while still fighting the dwarf what's more?
If Russia fears it is going to lose in Ukraine this means it is losing to Ukraine which is FAR FAR WEAKER than NATO. That is like losing to a dwarf.
Meanwhile NATO is by far the strongest army in the world. That is like taking on the world heavyweight champion.
And Ukraine wouldn't stop fighting while this happened so that would mean continuing to fight the dwarf and inviting the world heavyweight champion to join in on the same side as the dwarf while fighting.
AS Admiral Radakin explained Russia would just lose that match and lose it quickly.
It would be very absurd for Putin to attack NATO when it finds it is losing to Ukraine.
TEXT ON GRAPHIC:
NASA, huge and powerful but very timid
Russia knows it can't use nukes in reality
Russia tiny and weak, bluffs as meaningless as soap bubbles
Even the Soviet Union had no way to win a war with nukes
Imagine if your team was invisible - how easily you could win a game of football.
That is how much better NATO's F-35 jets are than anything Russia has.
NATO's technology is vastly superior (one of many ways)
…
Also
Text: The biggest reason that Putin doesn’t want a conflict with NATO is because Russia will lose. And lose quickly.
BLOG: How to see Putin will NEVER attack NATO - “Because Russia will lose, and lose quickly” - Admiral Radakin - and Putin isn't even trying to protect Russia from NATO [By lose quickly, Admiral Radakin means pushed right out of NATO territory, and any missile sytems firing at NATO destroyed - NATO wouldn't try to defeat Russia as it is purely defensive]
And NO, Putin can’t win by using nukes. They are not nearly as powerful as people think. The Soviet Union could NEVER win a war with nukes, Nor can Russia.
BLOG: Nukes are used as one way to prevent war - debunk of fantasy ideas - nukes can’t make a country uninhabitable - Soviet Union/ Russia NEVER had ability to win with a nuclear “first strike” nor did USA
IN MORE DETAIL - 1 - UKRAINE USES ITS OWN SATELLITE IMAGES NOW
1. Ukraine used satellite data from NATO through to August 18th, 2022. But now it almost always uses its OWN SATELLITE.
It was a public crowdfunding that bought it by the Serhiy Prytula Charity Foundation.. He crowdfunded $17 million which was originally intended to buy three Bayraktar drones but Bayraktar refused to accept the money and gave Ukraine the drones for free.
So Serhiy Prytula used the money instead to buy one of the radar satellites in the commercial Finnish ICEYE satellite constellation.
Ukraine has exclusive use of that satellite and it also has access to data from any other satellite in the constellation that is over Ukraine at the time if it needs an image quickly.
Ukraine gets over 10 images a day and they are radar images which means they work 24/7, day and night and cloud and rain makes no difference either.
The resolution of 0.25 m or less than 1 foot is easily enough for the targets Ukraine wants for ATACMS.
Here is the original announcement by Prytula's charity.
. Ukrainians, you aim for the stars! | Notion
Kyiv Independent story with the image of Kerch bridge taken by the satellite I use for this graphic. Ukraine's crowdfunded satellite takes over 4,000 images of Russian facilities, military intelligence says
Wikipedia page: People's Satellite - Wikipedia
UKRAINE’S OBSERVATION DRONES SUPPLEMENT THE SATELLITE IMAGES WITH VERY DETAILED IMAGES
In addition Ukraine has the original Bayraktar drones YouTube which can be used in the air for 24 hours at a speed of 110 km / hour before landing. Here it is taking off and landing:
It has vastly more drones now and flies its own drones over much of Russia. Each time it bombs Russia, of course it has imaging of the route including the targets - so it has high resolution imagery of numerous airbases, oil depots, refineries, radar installations with high resolution images right up to the moment of the explosion.
DRONE OBSERVATIONS OF KURSK OBLAST BEFORE THE INCURSION
Then it has its quadcopters now and much smaller dedicated quadcopeter drones and ones that look more like radio controlled hobbiest airplanes.
This was the main source of information for the Kursk incursion. The Russian soldiers noticed large numbers of these observation droens flying over Kursk oblast and alerted their superiors to it, all of them, spies, border guard, military. They were talking about it on Telegram but nobody listened. The incursion wasn't a surprise to them.
During the invasion, one of the things they noticed is how Ukraine was able to drive in along obscure tracks through the fields and forests away from the main road because of this reconnaissance they had done for weeks before the incursion.
Ukraine now has attack drones that shoot down the Russian observation drones. Russia doesn’t seem to have any of these yet (no mentions on OSINT on Twitter).
We now know that this is partly how Ukraine got its advantage in Kursk oblast by flooding with thousands of its own drones and attack drones which cleared the skies of Russian drones
.
TEXT ON GRAPHIC
Russian observation drone shot down by Ukrainian dedicated attack drone.
These were key to the Kursk incursion.
Stops the Russians seeing and targeting the Ukrainians
FPV_attack_drones
From a very long thread about these attack drones: Thread by @RALee85 on Thread Reader App
They have taken down larger targets too, these tiny Ukrainian attack drones have also taken down Russian helicopters. The first downing of a Russian helicopter with a drone was reported on 6th August the day of the incursion. The FPV drone hit the tail rotor of the helicopter. The Russians claim it was able to land and could be repaired. The Ukrainians claim it was destroyed.
. Ukrainian FPV drone hit Russian Mi-28 helicopter in 'historic' feat, source says.
This is why it is 100% plausible that NATO partners didn't know about the Kursk incursion in advance. They would only know about the Ukrainian concentrations that could be seen by satellite but could be as easily be defensive preparing for a Russian incursion the other way - and the chatter on Telegram by Russians who are rubbish at op sec the same way as Putin could have known if he'd payed attention to them.
Generals in the Russian army value absolute obedience and don't reward innovative independent thinking by officers below them.
Then Putin's propaganda machine was telling everyone that nothing was happening. So the local people didn't know to evacuate their cities.
The generals at the top heard nothing from the front lines. They seem to have had little awareness of what was going on for several days. The offensive started on 6th August, but Russia only started to respond in earnest around 9th August when Ukraine used HiMARS to destroy a large convoy of Russians on the road carelessly driving one behind the other on their way to the battle zone. But Tass continued to report it as just isolated individuals on foot and well under control.
. August 2024 Kursk Oblast incursion - Wikipedia
Here is how general Mick Ryan put it
QUOTE STARTS
Maybe we can finally dispense with the ‘transparent battlefield’ fallacy. War’s enduring feature, as Clausewitz described, is that it is a human endeavour and that it is full of uncertainty, friction, emotion and surprise. 1/5 🧵
2/ The level of strategic, operational and tactical deception shown by the Ukrainians during the planning, assembling forces and ongoing execution of the #Kursk operation has been superb.
3/ This is not a technical achievement - it is a human one. People who have learned from their successes and failures since February 2022 have crafted an operational design that is being competently executed by motivated soldiers.
4/ The design is physical of course. But it also has a profound moral dimension - the operation has shocked the Russian military and citizenry. The Ukrainians are exploiting this shock to move quickly through Kursk. This shock will unveil other opportunities for Ukraine to strike.
5/ But the strategic shock will also need to be exploited. It will have an impact on the status of Putin at home and abroad (can’t defend his own country). And, I hope, this will reinvigorate Western publics & politicians to force a change in our strategy to one that embraces and resources defeating Russia In Ukraine. End.
But Putin just focused on his very slow advance in Kursk. Russia did its first counteroffensive around Sept 11 more than a month after the incursion started, with Putin tasking them to liberate Kursk oblast by Oct 1st.
. Thread by @ArturRehi on Thread Reader App
This of course is what Zelensky wanted them to do, the whole thing was a big bait to try to get them to start a counteroffensive there which will take soldier away from the rest of the front line. But Putin delayed 3 weeks and as a result the Ukrainians are thoroughly dug in with multiple lines of fortification and fallback positions and expected this. Indeed they expected it probably more like 3 weeks ago.
At first the Russians advanced quickly with lots of trumpeting of their success in Telegram. But it seems they advanced into a prepared trap and this quickly went silent.
Zelensky says.
VIDEO: Let Russia begin counteroffensive actions. This is according to our plan.
That's dubbed in English by ezdubs_bot. Original here:
. 🪖MilitaryNewsUA🇺🇦 (@front_ukrainian) on X
This was a ironic tweet by someone that perfectly summed up the situation:
TWEET STARTS
Ukraine was hoping to draw Russian troops into a major confrontation, on Ukrainian terms, on Russian soil. That must have been the main goal of the Kursk invasion. Now Russia has finally taken the bait, after letting Ukraine dig in deep.
Putin remains a master strategist. [irony]
There's a long tweet thread here today summarizing what happened so far. The Russians took a fair bit of land quickly but the Ukrainians retreated to prepared positions and fought back and the Russians are likely getting heavy losses.
. Thread by @ArturRehi on Thread Reader App
2 - PUTIN’S CLAIM THAT UKRAINIANS CAN’T TYPE COORDINATES INTO THE HIMARS LAUNCH SYSTEM!
This is just bizarre. Poles can use this equipment, Romanians can, British, French, all the NATO allies who use such equipment are able to input the coordinates. But Putin tells us that Ukrainians for some reason are unable to type coordinates into a numpad into modern NATO equipment - which BTW the Ukrainian operators tell us is far easier to use than the older Soviet gear they are used to.
This hardly deserves any discussion. But Putin has claimed this throughout the war as supposed irrefutable evidence that NATO must be typing in the coordinates for Ukrainians. The Ukrainians even get highly publicised training.
ATACMS are fired from HiMARS. Ukraine has been using HiMARS against Russian targets since May 2024. Putin originally used this argument in 2022. Now he claims that JUST the ATACMS which is fired from the same launch platform using the same software as the GLMRS for some reason needs a member from NATO, e..g a Pole say, to be there to input the data for the Ukrainians.
It is very bizarre!
Training for HiMARS began in an undisclosed location outside Ukraine on 3rd June 2022, and was expected to take 3 weeks. See: Ukrainian servicemen begin their HIMARS training. So by 24th June 2022, Ukraine had its first operatives trained to be able to use HiMARS.
Since then they have continued to train HiMARS operatives inside and outside Ukraine. Yet Putin has used this argument over and over.
SO WHAT HAPPENS NEXT - AS SOON AS UKRAINE STARTS HITTING TARGETS N RUSSIA PUTIN WILL CONVENIENTLY FORGET EVERYTHING HE SAID AND THE LAST OF HIS RED LINES WILL BE GONE
When Ukraine gets this permission, and we get the first missile strikes using ATACMS against targets in Russia, Putin will just forget he ever said this and we will hear no more of it.
In short, the US is NOT responsible for
imaging the targets OR
the decision to fire OR
inputting coordinates into the launch systems for the mobile HiMARS launch vehicles.
In the first six months the US did provide data from intelligence images to Ukraine. It didn't share the actual images which are likely far higher resolution than 1 foot per pixel, so as not to reveal its capabilities to Ukraine.
US uses huge telescopes more capable than the Hubble space telescope to image Earth from Geostationary Earth orbit indeed the Hubble space telescope used a left-over spy satellite mirror. The modern ones are obviously more capable than the Hubble space telescope. But all of them pointed at Earth and unable to image stars and galaxies, optimized for Earth observation.
The US satellite images have likely got a resolution of inches. The usual way it is put is that US satellites likely have
enough resolution to see a number plate but not to read it
easily see individual people from orbit but not good enough for facial recognition from orbit.
Anyway - the US shared coordinates of many targets with Ukraine but not the actual images in the first six months of the war. This did NOT make it a combatant as Ukraine selected which target to attack when of the many coords US gave it.
Since August 2022 it no longer needs to share images. And whatever resolution it has from orbit it won’t be as good as the fpv drones and observation drones that Ukraine has. In the last few seconds of a FPV drone attack it will stream back images all the way through to the collision with the target.
The US likely shares other information with Ukraine to the present such as intercepted radio signals, tracking of Russian drones when over NATO territory, etc. Before theinvasion started they shared information about Putin's plans that they obtained by their own intelligence and likely do other intelligence sharing. This does NOT make NATO countries combatants in the war.
FRUSTRATINGLY DIFFICULT TO FIND PUTIN’S ORIGINAL QUOTE - TIP TO SEARCH FOR THE EXACT TEXT IN QUOTES BUT DOESN’T ALWAYS WORK
I got the original quote from one of our many members of the Doomsday Debunked group.
This was the most I could find before:
QUOTE STARTS
"But when we talk about high-precision, long-range weapons made in the West this is a completely different matter... The Ukrainian army is not able to strike with modern, high-decision, long-range systems. It can’t do this. It is only possible with intelligence data from satellites that Ukraine doesn’t have, data that’s only from satellites of the European Union, the USA, Nato satellites."
"The key point," he added, "is that only servicemen of Nato countries can input flight missions into these missile systems. Ukrainian servicemen cannot do this. Therefore this is not about permitting or not permitting the Ukrainian regime to strike Russia with these weapons.
"This is about whether or not Nato countries take the decision to directly participate in the military conflict.”
. Russia can end war now, says Keir Starmer as Vladimir Putin warns West
The BBC surely had access to the full text but as usual, they didn't give it or link to the source. This for some reason is normal in modern journalism and is very frustrating when fact checking. You can often find it by searching for exact text - put a sentence or phrase from the original text in quotes and searching Google - but I couldn't find it in google searches last night in this case.
Of course we can't change this and it is the journalistic norm, for some reason, maybe to protect their sources so other news media have to work to find the same sources?
But for whatever reason I hope some day this is changed. It will make the work of future historians very difficult trying to find the originals for all the things said in our news today. And often the original differs in significant ways due to cherry picking though in this case it was reasonably okay.
THE BBC AND OTHER MEDIA SOURCES NEVER FACT CHECK PUTIN - FACT CHECK TRUMP, HARRIS, THE ELECTION CAMPAIGNS OF LABOUR AND CONSERVATIVE ETC - BUT ALMOST NEVER PUTIN!
The BBC bizarrely doesn't challenge Putin's statements. It doesn't mention the People's satellite or the training for HiMARS outside Ukraine. It just publishes Putin's FALSE propaganda without comment.
Western fact checkers fact check almost every statement in the debate between Harris and Trump. But you can't find fact checks for Putin's many false claims anywhere.
Go to the more geeky places like OSINT on Twitter and you get people talking about how nonsensical they are. But most people will never find these discussions. And they are delayed. OSINT experts already know what I just said and so far I've not seen any of them making these very obvious points on Twitter.
I think there should be a fact checking page or site which just fact checks Putin for the general public who don't know the things the geeks and those who follow the war closely know about Putin.
. BBC Verify | Latest News & Updates | BBC News
TEXT ON GRAPHIC
BBC Verify NEVER seems to fact check Putin
I haven’t found Putin fact-checks on other mainstream websites either
A strange omission don’t think it is intentional, hope someone fixes this.
Screenshot from: . BBC Verify | Latest News & Updates | BBC News
BBC_Verify_factcheck_PUtin.png
If any of you know of a reliable Putin fact -check site anywhere then do share in comments
For instance you couldn't be expected to know all this.
So far I can’t find this in the news ANYWHERE. Typically I am unable to find fact checks of false claims by Putin except on rare occasions such as his big speeches. Even then you have to do a lot of searching to find any attempt at basic fact checking.
Even in Ukraine everyone would know about it so they wouldn't bother to say the obvious. I've not found any independent source yet for this fact check or I'd share it. So this is original research as far as I know, but it is obvious. Expect some geeks or OSINT chatter is saying just this as I type but so far I haven’t found it.
QUOTE FROM PUTIN
QUOTE STARTS
The FULL Statement on the "permission" by US and UK for long range Western missiles attacking the territory of the Russian Federation:
"There is an attempt to substitute concepts. Because we are not talking about allowing or prohibiting the Kiev regime to strike at Russian territory. It is already striking with the help of unmanned aerial vehicles and other means.
But when it comes to using high–precision long-range Western-made weapons, it's a completely different story. The fact is that, as I have already said, and any experts will confirm this (both here and in the West), the Ukrainian army is not able to strike with modern high-precision long-range systems of Western production. It can't do that. This is possible only with the use of satellite data, which Ukraine does not have — this is data only from satellites of either the European Union or the United States, in general, from NATO satellites. This is the first one.
The second, and very important, perhaps key, is that flight missions to these missile systems can, in fact, only be carried out by military personnel of NATO countries. Ukrainian servicemen cannot do this. And therefore, it is not a question of allowing the Ukrainian regime to strike Russia with these weapons or not to allow it. It's about deciding whether NATO countries are directly involved in a military conflict or not.
If this decision is made, it will mean nothing more than the direct participation of NATO countries, the United States, and European countries in the war in Ukraine. This is their direct involvement. And this, of course, significantly changes the very essence, the very nature of the conflict. This will mean that NATO countries, the United States, and European countries are at war with Russia. And if this is the case, then, bearing in mind the change in the very essence of this conflict, we will make appropriate decisions based on the threats that will be created to us."
SLOW ADVANCE IN POKROVSK
I’d finally like to share a few images about the alleged Russian break through of the Ukrainian front lines in Donbas.
Russia has taken perhaps 200 square kilometres there in the last month
.It has now stopped. See this animation
:Notice the scale. Pokrovsk is about 8 km in diameter. It is not clear if Russia will reach it this month. Graphics for:
August 25. Institute for the Study of War
Sept 1. Institute for the Study of War
Sept 8. Institute for the Study of War
There is NO WAY that this is about the Ukrainian front lines collapsing.
That compares with over 1000 square kilometers in Kursk oblast but in terms of strategy the Kursk incursion is vastly more important, If Russia eventually does reach Pokrovsk it would likely take it all winter to get through it and then it will be a useless heap of rubble and will be a base from which they can attempt to take a few more small villages and cities in Donbas
.Text on graphic This is how Russia advances about a kilometer per week in Donbas and Southern Ukraine.
- it can't do this to reclaim Kursk oblast because it would be demolishing Russian homes.
Satellite image from: Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) on X
They can't do that in Russia, the Russians would be outraged if that is how they "liberated" Sudzha, say, by just demolishing everything in it.
If they do this, then when the Russian civilians do get back into their "liberated" villages they likely find all their homes demolished by Russian shells. Because that is the only way that Russia knows to liberate them.
So - how is Russia going to retake Sudzha?
This is why you can be pretty sure that Sudzha will remain in Ukrainian hands to the end of the war.
Putin will TRY encircling the Ukrainians. But the Ukrainians are far too canny for that, far too cunning and clever.
While the Kursk incursion is a buffer zone preventing Russia from invading in Sumy oblast, it pushes the glide bombers back significantly, it cut off the rail supplies from Kursk oblast through Sudzha to the incursions by Russia into Kharkiv oblast and most importantly for Ukraine it has at last, after 3 weeks forced Russia to try to do a counteroffensive.
What most in the media don’t explain is the huge difficulty of Russia for doing a counteroffensive to retake Russian territory.
In Ukraine Russia can only advance by demolishing EVERYTHING in its track. Houses, businesses, everything leaving a pile of rubble.
This is the advance in Kursk from the same report
They also haven't moved much in the two weeks but the fluctuations here are much larger and the area covered much larger and what the map doesn't show is that there is a larger area to the left along the border between the Seym river and the border of Ukraine that is effectively under fire control of Ukraine - the Russian soldiers can't move anything heavy out of it except on pontoons and the UKrainians destroy those pontoons frequently.
This is the only good map I can find showing it clearly from August 17.
.Graphic from: War Mapper (@War_Mapper) on X
More detail:
. Jimmy Rushton (@JimmySecUK) on X. See the complete thread for details. Since then, Russia has deployed a pontoon bridge but Ukraine can target that too of course. Vitaly (@M0nstas) on X
Since then, Ukraine has kept destroying bridges over the Seym river. They destroy every pontoon the Russians place across it. But puzzling many of the OSINT commentators they haven’t actually taken the region themselves though they seem well capable of doing so. They even seem to have a presence along the rivers and long range reconnaissance within the region - but not trying to control it.
This may be deliberate, a giant trap for Russia for them to try to reinforce, and then Ukraine can continue to bomb all their exits from it.
Not clear what Ukraine's aim is, whether to take over the region between Ukraine and the Seym river, or to just keep it as a puzzle for the Russians without either taking it or ceding it.
If they did take it then it would add about half as much again to the blue area. But that doesn’t seem to be Ukraine’s objective to maximize the area they hold in Kursk Oblast. I think they have instead been planning all along for the counteroffensive from Russia and setting up puzzles and traps throughout the region - and Putin has now given them THREE WEEKS to prepare.
I think ISW more accurately would show it as disputed as it isn't really firmly in Russian control. Also what the map doesn't show is that the Ukrainians are getting dug in there and reinforcing their positions, if Russia was serious about getting them out of there it should have done that several weeks ago.
THE ONLY REASON PUTIN IS SO VOCAL ABOUT THE ATACMS IS BECAUSE HE KNOWS THIS 1980S ERA NATO TECHNOLOGY WOULD CAUSE MAJOR PROBLEMS FOR HIS INVASION INTO UKRAINE AND MAY BE A KEY FACTOR LEADING HIM TO LOSE THE WAR
First it is clear that Putin is really worried about US giving Ukraine ATACMS which you may not know - it's an ancient missile system from the 1980s. So - though western analysts say it will make no difference - they don't realize as NATO has so many so much better missiles they don't realize what a game changer it is in Ukraine. It won't win the war by itself but it will make Putin's army's job far harder.
The only reason Putin cares about it is he is afraid it will lead to him losing.
But if Putin is afraid of losing to missiles that are over 40 years old then why would NATO be scared of Putin? They wouldn't. They are vastly more capable than Russia. They have given Ukraine weapons sufficient to win against Russia with a lot of hard work but haven't given them the most advanced NATO weapons that could let the take complete control of the air space over occupied Ukraine in a few hours and shoot out fighter jets in Rsusia on the ground up to 2,500 km from Ukraine.
So why doesn't NATO do that? To save Putin's feelings essentially because it would let Ukraine win too easily.
But the take-home here is that Putin KNOWS full well that NATO is vastly more capable than Russia or he wouldn't be so concerned about NATO giving permission to use 40+ year old NATO weapons in Russia.
The final thing that likely persuaded Biden was Iran giving short range ballistic missiles to Russia. The ATACMS will let Ukraine attack the launchers for those missiles or easier Russia's stockpiles of the missiles because they are shorter range than the ATACMS can only hit Ukraine from within ATACMS range of Ukraine. This of course
does NOT make Iran a combatant. And the North Korean shells do NOT make NK a combatant.
Ukraine has been using many US weapons such as HiMARS ballistic missiles and the m777 howitzers against targets in Russia since May 2024.
It's been using these missiles along with US and other NATO tanks, Bradley fighting units, artillery etc FROM RUSSIAN SOIL in Kursk oblast since 6h August 2024.
Ukraine has also been using its OWN drones to put Russian bombers and fighters out of action as far north as the fighter jets at Olenya airbase north of the Arctic circle near Norway.
Also for the last several days Ukraine has been hitting defensive targets in Moscow just about every day many times a day including the Moscow oil refinery which they set on fire.
He will keep saying this until the day that ATACMS start hitting targets in Russia. Then it is just "meh" and he will rubbish the ATACMS and say that they are useless and claim that Russia shoots them all down even if they destroy all the fighter jets and helicopters left within 300 km of the front line and he will just ignore them.
It should make it very difficult for Russia to fight this war and help Ukraine a fair bit. Russia is sure to adapt as they always do but everything gets more complicated for them.
Especially the big strikes on Ukraine will get harder which will help ease the pressure on the front line as well as protect civilians.
But Putin will just go "meh" as he did for the F-16s indeed. They have been flying in Ukraine for some time but Putin has not even mentioned them except when one fo them crashed or was shot down by friendly fire or whatever happened to it.
WHAT UKRAINE WILL DO NEXT - ACTUAL DETAILS TOP SECRET BUT THEY HAVE BEEN TELEGRAPHING TO THE WORLD THAT THEY WILL TRY TO ADVANCE IN SOUTHERN UKRAINE IN THREE PLACES
It is a slow moving war. Ukraine can win but to do that it needs to do some strategic surprises like the ones in 2022. This shows one way the war could progress not secret at all.
Here I’ve shown what would happen if Ukraine does a Kursk sized counteroffensive in the south.
It may seem far harder because Russia is dug in along the front line - but it does[t seem to have that much by way of prepared defences further back if Ukraine can get through. It focused its attention on the front line itself.
Ukraine is through the front line at Verbove, just below Zaporizhzhia city.
It has been across the river at Krynky near the Oleshky sands a bit up river from Kherson city along the Dnipro river for most of the last year, retreated from it recently but can easily take it again
Finally, Ukraine frequently does assaults on Kinburn spit. Remember that Russia’s navy doesn[t dare to operate anywhere near the Ukrainian coast not even naval patrol boats. Also Russia used to have very sensitive radars that could spot dinghies in Crimea but ukraine destroyed them and several times have launched marines on voyages of hundreds of kilometers from Kherson oblast all the way to near Sevastopol in Crimea. Russia can’t seem to stop these.
TEXT ON GRAPHIC:
A Kursk sized counteroffensive could make the South of Ukraine much more vulnerable.
Three likely places that Ukraine has telegraphed to the world
Within artillery range.
Russia now finds it hard to supply Crimea by sea or bridge
If Ukraine liberates Kherson, all of Crimea suddenly becomes impossible for Russia to supply with fuel, munitions, heavy equipment etc OR to evacuate equipment from
Here is a close-up of Kinburn spit showing one possible route for a naval invasion from Ochakiv to Kinburn spit. This assumes that Ukraine has control or gains control of the artificial fort island that Russia built between Kchakiv and Kinburn spit in 1885 called Ostrov Mayskiy or Fort Isle Pervomaisky
That is via the Russian fort island built in 1885. I can’t find out if Russia holds it at present or Ukraine or neither of them. The only source I’ve found is a very unreliable source that claimed that on 4th March 2023 the Russians destroyed a secret base where it claims British special forces were teaching Ukrainian soldiers.
This makes no sense but it suggests that at least by March 2023 it was still in Ukrainian control so it may be still under their control today
.
Whatever the route, one way or another Ukraine does ALREADY often send soldiers to Kinburn spit and they provocatively raised a Ukraine flag there two days before the start of the Kursk incursion
.
. Special forces install Ukrainian flag on Kinburn Spit
Here is the video they shared:
Anyway the Ukrainians frequently tease the Russians. This was the rumour widely shared on Telegram:
■ At the same time, personnel and UAVs are being accumulated in Odessa for the future operation. Only in open sources there are hundreds of unmanned boats and UAVs, in reality their number may be approaching a thousand (it is worth considering that there have been no massive UAV strikes for a long time, so the Ukrainian Armed Forces have certainly managed to accumulate them).
- The enemy is considering the possibility of a combined attack with drones and UAVs on Crimea, as well as on objects on the Tendra and Kinburn spits. Judging by the plan, they will be followed by a boat landing in several places, followed by an attempt to expand the control zone.
■ Another stage of the plan involves the landing of several sabotage and reconnaissance groups in the area of large settlements in the south of the region with the aim of attacking headquarters for the general disorganization of command. One of such areas could be the Zhelezny Port - Lazurnoye - Skadovsk line (if we assess the security of the coastline as a whole, then this option certainly cannot be ruled out).
This is what the Russian soldiers in Kinburn spit area at the time suspected Ukraine of planning
.
From that same tweet:
. WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) on X
It didn’t happen. The Ukrainians were likely just teasing the Russians with fake leaked information.
But this may happen in the future now that Putin has started to commit to a counteroffensive in Kursk oblast:
TWEET Kherson has the longest supply lines for Russia and is therefore the most vulnerable. It is quite possible for Ukraine to gain localized air superiority here. My guess is that they may wait on the Russians committing to a counteroffensive in Kursk before launching.
I expect Ukraine has wargamed “multiple outs” - depending on what Russia does it may have many ways to proceed.
The other main rumour that gets shared by Russian soldiers is a claim of Ukraine having extra brigades about to advance through Verbove towards Tokmak. It never happens but some day it may.
If they do this - Ukraine first needs to do a Kursk oblast sized incursion and hold it. Then it will be permanently behind the Russian front line wherever it is - Kinburn spit, Tokmak, or Oleshky sands or somewhere else. There will no longer be mine fields between it and the Russians and then it can use its drone superiority as in Kursk oblast.
That could liberate Kherson oblast maybe quite quickly by choking off Russia’s supply to it.
Other possibilities here
TEXT ON GRAPHIC
NO RISK of Russia using nukes
- Russian Federation not threatened
- so far Putin treats it as of no significance
- Putin responds to weakness with aggression
- responds to strength with peace negotiations
Until now Ukraine had to defend this border [with Russia] and Russia could leave it undefended and attack anywhere at any time of its choosing.
Both sides had to defend here (border with occupied Ukraine)
Russia was about to attack here, but Ukraine siezed the initiative [Kursk oblast just south of the Ukrainian incursion]
Ukraine attacked back here and now Russia has to defend its border too.
Russia has to move soldiers away from here [Donbas area]
Likely weakly defended behind the front line
If Ukraine cuts through here Russia will find it very hard to supply Crimea [Kerch bridge]
In 2023: Ukraine forced the Russian navy out of Crimea.
mine fields here washed away by the flood [Dnipro river]
Ukrainian resistance [Melitopol]
Ukraine got through main minefield here [Verbove]
Vulnerable Russian supply road [Azov sea coast]
Russia's dilemma:
- where to defend?
Meanwhile Ukrine raises flag temporarily on Kinburn spit
By attacking first across the border into Kursk oblast, Ukraine
is crossing into friendly territory as many there are historically ethnically Ukrainian and still speak Ukrainian
pre-empts Russia's plans to attack Ukraine from Kursk oblast
Immediate objectives:
cuts through a major railway line at Sudzha which supplies the Russian soldiers attacking Ukraine near Kharkiv city
also cuts off supplies to the concentration of Russian troops just south of them waiting for the orders to invade Ukraine from Kursk oblast into Sumy oblast
Disrupts Russian preparations:
let's Ukraine destroy a lot of equipment on the ground that Russia would need to attack Ukraine from Kursk oblast
let's Ukraine launch heavier drones at Russian air fields further into Russia used to drop glide bombs on Ukraine.
Then in the larger picture
forces Russis to move many soldiers and a lot of equipment away from the fighting in Donbas
nearly doubles the front line that Russia now has to defend against Ukraine
may lead to the West giving permission to use ATACMS deep in Russia against glide bombers attacking Ukraine.
Effect on Russia:
does NOT endanger the Russian Federation, this is only a tiny fraction of a percent of it
embarrassing for Putin
he does NOT want to admit it happened and pretends nothing is happening
For the future
gives Ukraine territory that it could exchange back with Ukraine in a peace treaty
gives Ukraine the initiative for the first time since 2022
Morale:
morale boost for Ukraine and Ukrainian soldiers
shows Russians in the area that Russia is weak and that there really is a war going on not just a "special operation"
by treating the Russians in the area in a friendly way treating the civilians with respect, Ukraine shows the people there they are not the monsters Russian propaganda makes them out to be
A hard area for Russia to win back:
big dilemma for Russia once Ukraine has consolodated its hold, built fortifications etc that Russia will have to bomb, and destroy Russian homes instead of Ukrainian homes to win the territory back
puts future fighting in the area on the Russian rather than the Ukrainian side of the border
Practice for a counteroffensive:
gives Ukraine practice in moving fast in undefended Russian territory in preparation for counteroffensives in occupied Ukraine
occupied Ukraine likewise is likely weakly defended behind the front line so fast advances are still possible there too if Ukraine can get through the front line quickly enough
Ukraine can NEVER liberate the occupied areas street by street like Russia does, it HAS to win by deceit, misdirection, cutting off supplies, and fast advances in surprising places as in 2022.
The map is the Institute for Study of War map for 11th August
Interactive map here, but it changes every day, this is where the background image comes from: Interactive Map: Russia's Invasion of Ukraine
Details for 11th August: Institute for the Study of War
If Russia does lose Kherson oblast, this could end the war very quickly - Putin’s thoughts would likely swiftly turn to peace negotiations once he can no longer supply Crimea by sea or by land.
This could end the war very quickly - Putin’s thoughts would likely swiftly turn to peace negotiations once he can no longer supply Crimea by sea or by land.
In 2022, Ukraine telegraphed to the world that it would Liberate Kherson city. It then liberated Kharkiv oblast at the far end of the long front line. Then when Russia sent reinforcements to protected Luhansk it was a bait and switch - Ukraine then liberated part of Kherson oblast. Russia could no longer supply Kherson city because Ukraien had fire control of the Antonovksy bridge and pontoons so they evacuated Kherson city once teh soldiers there had run out of shells and Ukrainethen took it without a fight.
Military historians will be studying that strategy for centuries to come. This seems likely to be another classic Ukrainian subterfuge on similar lines.
They are attracting Russia to Kursk oblast even further way and all the time telegraphing to Russia and to the world that their real plan is to attack in Kinburn spit, the opposite end of the line. So what does Putin do? He ignores the problem for 3 weeks and pushes forwards n Donbase km by km. Finally after 3 weeks he takes the bait and launches a counteroffensive in Kursk which is taking away soldiers from most of the front line EXCEPT Donbas.
Ukraine is clearly setting up for a counteroffensive in the south - this is called shaping operations, which Ukraine is so good at. It’s shaping the battlefield to be ready for a counteroffensive in the south.
If Russia does lose Kherson oblast, this could end the war very quickly - Putin’s thoughts would likely swiftly turn to peace negotiations once he can no longer supply Crimea by sea or by land.
LARGE NUMBERS OF DEFENSIVE TARGETS COME WITHIN RANGE OF UKRAINE WITH ATACMS
Ukraine can hit all these with its own drones. The main advantages of ATACMS are
speed, ATACMS can travel 300 km in 5 minutes. A slow drone at 100 to 150 km / hour would take 2- 3 hours, and the Russian fighter jets take off whenever they get a drone alert saving their planes
- the Stormshadow takes 15 minutes - if Ukraine can use ATACMS it can hit airbases without giving time for the fighter jets or helicopters to take off making it impossible for Russia to position helicopters or fighter jets on the ground within 300 km of tge front line
This of course will then hugely impact on how often Russia can attack Ukraine. Less obviously it also reduces the payload as with a 600 km round trip the amount of fuel is significantly more meaning each flight has fewer or less capable glilde bombsdestructive power - the ATACMS is designed for fragile targets including helicopeters and planes - and warehouses, buildings etc - it has lots of small submunitions and these send shrapnel flying in all directions and one ATACMS can quickly destroy lots of helicopters and figher jets at an air base - or explode a munitions store near the air base which then will destroy lots of aircraft
penetrating power for Stormshadow - this is optimized to penetrate hard armoured targets and is typically used against high value armoured targets or buried targets
Ukraine is quickly developing similar capabilities with the help of its allies in lower cost drones and ballistic missiles it can fire itself. It has already used a jet propelled cruise missile with a range of hundreds of kilometres and a ballistic missile its developed itself with a likely range of 500 km. These are also getting more destructive. By teh end of this year perhaps it will have its own native lower cost analogues of stormshadow and ATACMs. Basically its allies can let it do now what other wise it may not be able to do until early next year.
This is my blog post mid edit with lots of repetition sorry not had time to work on it yet but may help.
On Quora.
On Quora.
TEXT ON GRAPHIC
List of SOME of the legitimate defensive targets within range of ATACMS for Ukraine
Does NOT take account of Kursk incursion which adds to the range
Does NOT include new fuel and missile depots and other temporary targets.
Putin will just go "meh" as he did when Ukraine used HiMARS to blow up dozens of munitions dumps in occupied Ukraine in spring to summer 2022.
Most likely never hits the headlines in Tass
Means glide bombers have to fly at least 300 km which is far enough to reduce the payload they can carry and makes them easier to shoot down.
Also long range missiles and Shahed drones have to be fired from further away making them easier to shoot down.
Helps Ukraine to win faster.
Part of Zelensky's victory plan he will present to Biden, Harris and Trump.
Legitimate defensive targets.
Map and much longer complete list of targets within range of ATACMS here. Institute for the Study of War
More details:
Earlier posts (on substack):
TEXT ON GRAPHIC: Why Ukraine crossed into Russia and why it is DEFENSIVE NOT ESCALATORY and NOT CROSSING RUSSIA’S ONLY REAL RED LINE - no threat to the Russian Federation
This operation could be used just to simplify Ukraine’s defense, leaving a buffer region for most of it within Russia
Until this attack on August 6th Russia didn’t need soldiers or to build strong fortifications here
Ukraine had to defend this long complicated border already
Ukraine can simplify ist border so can be SAFER with LESS SOLDIERS while Russia now has to defend and needs MORE soldiers here
[Kursk oblast] Was part of Ukraine for a few years before the Soviet era and many are on friendly terms with Ukraine, some speak Ukrainian and shouted “Slave Ukraine”
Example, Ukraine could retreat to this line and make is border far easier to defend
Buffer region NOW in Russia to defend Ukraine
Before this incursion Russia could cross anywhere at any time making a buffer region or “no man’s land” in Ukraine
Ukraine border arrowed in purple
Russian expensive but useless fortifications - didn’t stop Ukraine at all.
TEXT ON GRAPHIC
US says this incursion is DEFENSIVE AND NOT ESCALATORY.
Meanwhile, Putin is downplaying it, it's too embarrassing for him to admit to the full extent of what's happening.
Also, when Russia has a big set-back it de-escalates. When it senses that Ukraine is weak it escalates. It is the opposite of what Putin bluffs. The only time Putin has ever offered anything close to a genuine peace plan is when Russia had its biggest set-back of the war when it lost the battle for Kyiv.
[arrow to railway line] By cutting through this railway line Ukraine stops Russia from supplying large numbers of soldiers that were preparing to cross into Ukraine and attack it.
Ukrainian colonel Vladislav Seleznyov told Nexta that
- Ukraine saw 75,000 Russian troops gathering close to the border
- They were about to attack Ukraine across the border
- Ukraine went on the offensive into Russia to eliminate the bridgeheads that threatened Ukraine.
Map from Wikipedia: August 2024 Kursk Oblast incursion.svg - Wikimedia Commons
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