No, Putin CAN'T attack NATO - it is way overmatched in the sea and air - any attempt would be blocked immediately
There is no way that Putin can attack NATO.
Russia is incredibly weak - it should have been able to cross a 300 meter river in three years of trying with its vast advantage in the air over Ukraine - but only Ukraine managed that feet not Rusia
Putin is worried about America giving Ukraine 100 Tomahawks
the USA has thousands of the things and it’s technology of the 1980s.
Putin goes on and on about how his army is advancing in Donbas - it’s only twice the speed of a garden snail at 100 meters a day. He never mentions that his army is unable to cross the Dnipro river which is a fixed line along a third of the line of contact.
Ukraine crossed this river a couple of times early on near Oleshky sands as well as on the far side of the Antonovsky bridge. It established a foothold in both places for months. Russia has never established any foothold on the Ukrainian side.
The Russians are unable to take over the Ukrainian airspace and have to keep well back from the front line now, despite a 10 to 1 advantage in the air.
The Russian fleet is no longer able to sail around the coast of Crimea but is stationed the far side of Kerch strait to keep out of the way of the Ukrainian Neptune cruise missiles and naval drones and Ukraine has sunk a third of it. Ukraine has no navy not even one frigate (sunk its onlyfrigate to stop Rsusia getting it early in the war)
Now consider:
NATO is vastly superior to Russia in the sea and the air. Russia doesn’t have aircraft carriers, not even one, and ships at sea without air cover are very vulnerable.
Russia’s fighter jets and radar
can’t even see the fifth generation US fighter jets, the F-35s unless they use very low radar frequencies which are not precise enough for targeting.
From open source information if Ukraine had a few F-35s they would have control of Russian airspace over occupied Ukraine in hours.
You get a mistaken idea of Russian capabilities in Ukraine because it is facing an opponent that on paper should be far weaker than Russia especially early in the war.
Yet Russia can’t make use of its many on paper advantages
10 : 1 ratio of military aircraft
20 : 0 ratio of military ships
Long distance cruise missiles with range of nearly 3000 km
Large numbers of glide bombs of 1 to 3 tons payload
Yet it can’t cross a river 300 meters wide.
TEXT ON GRAPHIC
Ukrainian side
(far weaker than NATO)Narrowest point 300 meters
Russia has been unable to cross this river in over 3 years of trying
no outposts on the Ukrainian side along hundreds of kilometers of river bank
Dnieper river
Russian side
Total distance: 303.75 m (996.56 ft)
That shouldn’t be hugely challenging for a well equipped modern army that has a huge advantage in the air over its opponent.
Ukraine itself crossed it several times early on against an on paper better equipped army. But in 3 years of trying Russia has never succeeded. Even with on paper a huge advantage over Ukraine.
It tried several times and it failed. All it’s managed to do is to get a few soldiers temporarily on islands in the river and never got any to the Ukrainian side of the river. Again a river only 300 meters across at its widest.
I think the Dnipro river is a good example of Russia’s lack of military competence / ability. Ukraine pushed them out of Kherson city and the north / west side of the river in 2022. It’s never been able to go back again.
TEXT ON GRAPHIC:
Antonovsky bridge in Kherson city destroyed by Ukraine in 2022Russia can’t cross this river in Ukrainethe Russian army is no match for NATOwould be FAR HARDER to cross the border into a NATO countryYellow Text (Top right):
Russia controls this side
Light Purple/Lavender Text (Right side):
Dnipro river
Yellow Text (Bottom right):
The entire Russian army can’t cross this river after 3 YEARS of trying
Blue/Purple Text (Bottom left):
Video from October 2025
Pink Text (Center top):
Destroyed 2022
Russia has not been able to cross that river in 3 years of trying.
South of the now drained Nova Khakhova reservoir it’s around 300 meters wide at its narrowest
Admiral Radakin - recently retired head of the UK defence forces - on NATO’s vast overmatch over Russia in air and sea - backed up also by open source data
If Russia attacked NATO, it’s NATO that has a huge advantage over Russia in the air and in the sea and it can get as many soldiers to the front line as Russia quickly
That is why Admiral Radakin says that Putin can’t attack NATO and won’t try.
He’d be stopped almost instantly before he could take land even temporarily.
NATO has equal numbers in the air but more important has more advanced technology to the extent that the Russian fighter jets would just have to keep out of the way to avoid being shot down.
If Ukraine had NATO technology, up to date, not decades old, it would be able to take over the air space of all of occupied Ukraine within 24 hours according to open source assessments.
This is from Admiral Radakin, recently retired chief of the UK defence forces, talking to the UK defence committee in June.
TEXT ON GRAPHIC
Shortened version in purple:
Extraordinarily strong compared to Russia.
How quickly we could get control of the sea and the air.
No longer “how do we fight to get that territory back”.
How quickly can it get there to block any risk of aggression or land grab
That’s what NATO’s got and how NATO can keep its citizens safe
It’s the overmatch that deters Russia.
Russia doesn’t want to fight with NATO and Russia doesn’t want a nuclear war and we should be really confident of that.
Graphic from:
So Radakin is saying:
NATO could take over any contested airspace rapidly (open source estimates less than a day)
NATO could take over any contested sea area rapidly too (no publicly available figures for how fast)
NATO has 300,000 soldiers now that it can commit without asking for countries to add any new commitements - and thousands would get there to block almost immediately
It takes days to weeks to get a large invasion army ready
Radakin is the only general I’ve found that talks openly and clearly about NATO’s vast overmatch.
It’s not a secret. As he says the only secret is how fast they could take over the air or sea of any combat area. That is classified. But it’s open source that they could take over any contested air space or the sea very fast.
Radakin gave the analogy himself of the way Israel took over the Iranian airspace in a few hours.
And in Ukraine - Russia has a massive superiority in the air 10 to 1 ratio of aircraft. It has its glide bombs 1 to 3 tons. It could focus dozens of hypersonic missiles and hundreds of Geran cruise missiles at one spot.
Its air defences are very weak Ukraine doesn’t even have a navy, and sunk a third of its Black Sea fleet - a US submarine with Tomahawks could surely sink the whole fleet from the Mediterranean.
Now in a war with NATO, it’s NATO has the advantage, Larger airforce, far far superior fighter jets, very capable navy with aircraft carriers - so they can be protected by air support on the ships themselves which Russia can’t do. Large numbers of submarines that are nuclear powered with conventional missiles.
And far far superior aircraft.
What Radakin says is uncontroversial and open source - he is in a position to know - yet no other generals or military leaders properly explain NATO’s vast superiority over Russia - don’t say he is wrong - just don’t mention it - perhaps to bolster political support for increased NATO funding??
So - what Radakin is saying isn’t controversial, it’s what the open source data tells us.
Yet - NOBODY ELSE is saying this. He had access to the best intelligence, the allied intelligence. Frequently visited Ukraine, very familiar with their situation on the ground, sees for himself how Russia is fairign against them. And he talks about a vast overmatch.
And none of his peers is disputing it. They are just not repeating what he says. Not saying the obvious bit out loud. He is the only one who did.
So - there is something else going on. The others don’t discuss NATO’s air capabilities, they don’t say that Russia is equal to NATO in the air, they simply don’t mention that NATO has far far better aircraft than Russia.
So they have other reasons for their silence. Political reasons or financial to get funding for the military, to get political support to strengthen NATO and so on.
And if others joined Radakin and said the quiet part out loud and they all said that, then countries would become complacent and say “Why do we need to spend so much on defending NATO when there is no chance of Russia attacking us ever?”
So that’s basically what is going on. And one general saying this is fine but if they all did they would wonder how they could continue to justify NATO to politicians.
Something like that. Not worked out. Not a conspiracy theory. Just the natural result of generals being focused on getting political and economic support for the military. So they tend not to say this quiet bit out loud.
Radakin’s peers say similar sounding things but they significantly understate it.
They tend to say things like that Russia can’t attack us now because it is so weak.
But Radakin’s point is that it can’t attack us ever because we have such technological lead which it can never catch up. So long as we basically continue on the path we are following we are way ahead of them.
This is about how slow the Russian advance is and completely blocked at the Dnipro river:
TEXT ON GRAPHIC
Putin is NOT cornered
he just has a decision about whether to add another tiny fraction of a percent to the 27 million square kilometers of Russia
or to stop the war
If Putin has a 2 meter wide map of all of Russia on a wall somewhere
his army advanced a little over 1 cm on that map in the last 1000 days
and that’s in Donbas where it was fastest moving
about twice the speed of a garden snail
Putin would need a magnifying glass to see the advances that run as headlines in TASS
Furthest Putin has advanced in 1000 days
50 km in Donbas
can’t cross Dnipro river (about a third of front line)
meanwhile lost access to Syria
The Russian army has advanced 50 meters a day, about twice the speed of a garden snail.
Also on the map:
“Measure distance
Click on the map to add to your path
Total distance: 7,900.91 km (4,909.40 mi)”
[For distance from Easternmost to Westernmost point of Russia excluding Kaliningrad]The magnifying glass graphic zooms in on “50.01 km”.
[For the distance that Putin’s army has advanced in Donbas in 1000 days]
Hand holding magnifying glass from: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Hand_Gesture_-_Holding_a_Magnifying_Glass_Vector.svg
Map: google maps
See:
Putin not cornered - on 2 meter map of Russia advanced just over 1 cm in Donbas in 1000 days - can't cross river Dnipro in Zaporizhia or Kherson oblasts - & why Zelensky can't give cities to Putin
Russia is about 7,900 km from East to West. It’s a shorter distance flying over the poles because Russia is curved around the north pole, but that is not a practical route for people traveling on the ground.
The drones certainly are not preparation for an attack.
Why Putin will never use nukes
It NEVER makes sense for Russia to use nukes EVER.
Putin won't use nukes: would damage his regime - risk averse - only invaded Ukraine because sure (mistakenly) he'd win in 2 weeks - if there was a risk as in the Cold War we'd all know about fallout
For those who worry about world war - hopefully this fact check will help.
And this is about why we don’t risk a world war from anywhere.
Why we do NOT risk a world war from: Ukraine, the Middle East, China, North Korea, or anywhere else in the world - next to impossible - and longer term are headed for a future without any war
For a first overview look at the graphics, read the bullet points summary, and read the section titles in the contents list - then dive into more detail in any section of interest. If you are on the laptop you can also navigate to any section by clicking on the column of horizontal dashes you see to the left of this page.
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See Latest short debunks for new short debunks
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TIPS FOR DEALING WITH DOOMSDAY FEARS
If suicidal or helping someone suicidal see my:
BLOG: Supporting someone who is suicidal
If you have got scared by any of this, health professionals can help. Many of those affected do get help and find it makes a big difference.
They can’t do fact-checking, don’t expect that of them. But they can do a huge amount to help with the panic, anxiety, maladaptive responses to fear and so on.
Also do remember that therapy is not like physical medicine. The only way a therapist can diagnose or indeed treat you is by talking to you and listening to you. If this dialogue isn’t working for whatever reason, do remember you can always ask to change to another therapist and it doesn’t reflect badly on your current therapist to do this.
Also check out my Seven tips for dealing with doomsday fears based on things that help those scared, including a section about ways that health professionals can help you.
I know that sadly many of the people we help can’t access therapy for one reason or another - usually long waiting lists or the costs.
There is much you can do to help yourself. As well as those seven tips, see my:
BLOG: Breathe in and out slowly and deeply and other ways to calm a panic attack
BLOG: Tips from CBT
— might help some of you to deal with doomsday anxieties
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