Putin won't use nukes: would damage his regime - risk averse - only invaded Ukraine because sure (mistakenly) he'd win in 2 weeks - if there was a risk as in the Cold War we'd all know about fallout
Nor will Trump use nukes or anyone else
For those who worry about world war - hopefully this fact check will help.
Nobody can start a world war. And in particular Putin will not start a world war. Before I get to the reasons this is how we can verify that all of the governments, generals and journalists all KNOW there is no real risk of nukes.
Short graphics summary:
TEXT ON GRAPHIC:
How we know governments, generals, and journalists KNOW THERE IS NO RISK OF NUKES.
Radioactive dust [labels cloud] the air is NOT radioactive and fine dust blows away harmlessly in the upper atmosphere
If you see an atom bomb mushroom cloud
get inside before the heavy dust falls in the cloud falls on you
We all knew this in the cold war as it
would save MILLIONS OF LIVES
We would all know these simple instructions today if there was any real risk of nukes
Cold War booklet do NOT need it today
Graphic from: Protect and survive : this booklet tells you how to make your home and your family as safe as possible under nuclear attack
This is NOT the same as the booklets on how to prepare for various disasters like the French one:
Some countries get those. But what we got in the cold war was a booklet just about protection from fallout.
That is what we don’t get today. We would all know this information if we were at risk of fallout, and so, if we were at risk of a nuclear war.
There is no way anyone uses nukes. I focused on Putin for this debunk but it's the same for all leaders of all nuclear powers.
For instance Trump can’t start a world war either. He is not a hawk anyway (not someone who sees war as a way to solve problems). And he can't launch a nuke, he orders a room full of generals. They will just flat out refuse an illegal order. It’s done this way to prevent anyone from starting a world war by mistake.
That was the only real risk ever and the reason we no longer have this risk is because since the cold war we’ve done so much to make sure that such mistakes don’t happen.
I cover everyone in my longer debunk here:
Why we do NOT risk a world war from: Ukraine, the Middle East, China, North Korea, or anywhere else in the world - next to impossible - and longer term are headed for a future without any war
For a first overview look at the graphics, read the bullet points summary, and read the section titles in the contents list - then dive into more detail in any section of interest. If you are on the laptop you can also navigate to any section by clicking on the column of horizontal dashes you see to the left of this page.
This is a short intro for some of the main points relevant to Putin:
I’m just about to do a blog post about the Ukraine truce proposal. But first I’ll do this so I can link to it at the beginning.
As I usually do with posts like this I’ve closed comments for the first few hours as that is when it is most likely to show up in search results and attract uninformed comments that can scare people by just repeating what they see in sensationalist news. See instructions at the end on how to contact me or join our group etc with any comments on this post or anything else thanks!
Why Putin won't use nukes:
Nobody wins a nuclear war. However bad your situation, nukes make it WORSE - this is why Putin won't use nukes
That is why no country has ever used nukes since Hiroshima and Nagasaki which were
before they understood that nukes caused radiation sickness and
when only the US had nukes.
We now know these things.
They are only used as a deterrent never to be used.
Russis like everyone else has nukes as a deterrent
I could update this graphic with King Charles but it’s especially striking with Queen Elizabeth who was small and frail.
How nuclear deterrents work. One of Queen Elizabeth’s bodyguards. His job was to keep her safe. NOT to go around starting fights with people around her, which would make her very unsafe A nuclear deterrent is like a bodyguard He kept her safe by just standing there and doing nothing, alert to any trouble
Photo by Irish321 on Wikimedia commons. I can’t find the original photo as the url doesn’t seem to work but they are credited here: How The Queen left a Head of State lost for words as By Irish321 at English Wikipedia, CC BY-SA 3.0, User talk:MisterProper - Wikimedia CommonsArrows added by Business Insider Professional bodyguards reveal how to stay safe while traveling
. How nuclear deterrents work - like a bodyguard - their job is to prevent fights
They would not help Russia at all with its war or economic problems or anything. They would make things far worse.
If Russia as much as tests a nuke in an air burst in a remote area of Russia such as it did many times before the partial test ban treaty
it would lose the neutral support it has from China and India for sure.
Russia for instance is able to continue its war mainly because of the revenue it gets from selling oil to India - those earnings equal the entire cost of the war
India would surely not want to trade with a country that breaks the partial test an treaty never mind uses nukes in a war.
There would be many other consequences, Russia might even lose its permanent seat on the UN Security council if it did that.
If it used a nuke in war the effects on the Russian regime would be far more serious.
he is risk averse not insane and not a dare devil in his policy, he only does things when he believes he has 100% certainty fo success. He can never think that using nukes has 100% certainty of success for his regime he'd likely evaluate it as 0%.
He bluffs and lies all the time So you need to look at his actions to see what kind of a man he really is.
This shows a very risk averse man who hesitated for 3 months before doing anything to stop the Ukrainians in Kursk oblast. He has always hesitated whenever he meets a problem in the war and his usual response is to claim nothing has happened in Russian media. He has lost many times in this war - ror instance after he lost the battle of Kyiv or kheson city or lost control of the grain corridor or lost Sevastopol harbout.
He didn't invade as an impulsive decision and nothing to do with emotions. We know from researchers with access to secret intelligence that Putin had already decided to invade before the spring exercises in 2021, which were a test before the real thing. He not only expected but was certain he'd take over Kyiv in two days and all of Ukraine in two weeks. He was so certain he had no plan B because he was certain (mistakenly) that he'd thought through everything.
See:
“Putin is a very risk averse individual” - ISW - So why did he invade Ukraine? - supreme confidence in plan A from his spies - take over Kyiv government in 2 days - and Ukraine in 10 days - no plan B
I am writing this right now because many people are worrying that Putin will attack NATO if the US and UK give Zelensky permission to use the ATACMS and Stormshadow missiles (which they already have) to hit targets in Russia (which they are already hitting with other US and UK missiles).
So it makes absolutely no sense for him to do it and he has bluffed for 3 years and the US and UK and others have never seen any sign of him genuinely preparing to use nukes.
2. There are no examples of a world leader suddenly going mad. King George III who likely had bipolar developed it over many years.
3. even in the cold war the risk was a mistake not intentional use
we now have declassified information about the cold war - and there are no example of either the US or the Soviet Union seriously planning to attack the other with nukes. The reason is obvious because it would be bonkers to do that.
The closest we got to any use of nukes since Hiroshima / Nagasaki was with the Cuban missile crisis and the risk there was again of a mistake, the Soviet Union would never have used nukes except if they thought the US had already begun a world war.
4. many precautions to prevent him using it by mistake.
Mainly humans in the loop at all levels. Plus more communication between the opposing countries.
Telephone hot lines to prevent miscommunications.
And notifications of exercises, test launches etc
We learnt from those close calls in the cold war and resolved not to let them ever happen again and every nuclear power understands that history and the reason to make sure we don’t make mistakes.
5. Putin has never prepared to use nukes.
We would know. The US intelligence with their satellite images and other information would be able to see.
5. You can tell that our governments and our journalists don't believe it when they talk about world war.
If Trump or Zelensky or anyone else really believed it he'd tell his administration to make sure everyone knows the basic instructions that could save millions of lives from radiation sickness if there ever were nukes dropped on the USA.
They are all very obviously using spin, exaggeration. in this and that's true of all the people who say these things.
And the reason they don’t tell us is NOT to avoid panic. That makes no sense. I help many people scared of these false claims - and it never makes them more scared to know about the precautions we took in the cold war.
If the aim was to avoid scaring people then they wouldn’t talk about world war. It makes no sense to claim we risk a world war and not tell people how to protect themselves from nukes.
I don’t sugar coat anything either. If this was during the cold war I would be telling you all how to protect yourself from nukes because back then there was a small chance and we had leaflets through the doors in the 60s about what to do. Most people in their late 60s upwards likely remember the basics at least in the UK.
The instructions are very simple, no need to distribute iodine tablets, they do nothing. They are for leaks from nuclear reactors and only for the rare situation of people who eat food or drink water or milk contaminated before they hear about the leak. Iodine gives no protection from radiation sickness, only prevents risk of thyroid cancer later in life.
The instruction is just that if you see a mushroom cloud to get indoors before the intensely radioactive dust falls from the sky and get as far away from it as you can.
There are many more detailed instructions about how to protect from fallout. For instance rather obviously not to eat food or drink water that could be contaminated by the dust.
However, just the basics of knowing it is dust falling from the sky that's the danger would save millions of lives. It is NOT gas and NOT radioactive air. Just dust. Dust heavy enough to fall out of the sky in ten to fifteen minutes depending on how far away you are - and if far away it only reaches you if the wind blows in your direction.
TEXT ON GRAPHIC:
How we know governments, generals, and journalists KNOW THERE IS NO RISK OF NUKES.
Radioactive dust [labels cloud] the air is NOT radioactive and fine dust blows away harmlessly in the upper atmosphere
If you see an atom bomb mushroom cloud
get inside before the heavy dust falls in the cloud falls on you
We all knew this in the cold war as it
would save MILLIONS OF LIVES
We would all know these simple instructions today if there was any real risk of nukes
Cold War booklet do NOT need it today
Graphic from: Protect and survive : this booklet tells you how to make your home and your family as safe as possible under nuclear attack
The dust is partly from the explosion itself, material in the nuke and from the weapon materials and partly it's dust in the ground if it is exploded close enough to the ground to throw up dust which becomes part of the mushroom cloud.
As with any explosion it kills people where it's exploded but anyone far enough away to survive the initial explosion can protect themselves by getting indoors rapidly before the dust falls from the sky.
We all knew this during the cold war. We would all know this now if there was any real risk of a nuclear war.
I did a couple of videos about it.
This is a first draft. I just did it while out for a walk and it gets cut off at the end so I added a second video, and that’s also why I’m not talking to camera.
First video:
Second video:
For more on this see my:
Why we do NOT risk a world war from: Ukraine, the Middle East, China, North Korea, or anywhere else in the world - next to impossible - and longer term are headed for a future without any war
For a first overview look at the graphics, read the bullet points summary, and read the section titles in the contents list - then dive into more detail in any section of interest. If you are on the laptop you can also navigate to any section by clicking on the column of horizontal dashes you see to the left of this page.
How to protect yourself from click bait news
However sadly, the news will continue to keep doing click bait stories about world war especialy in the sensationalist press. We can’t stop this with a fact check. If you can find your way to less exposure to the news it will help.
Amongst things you can do - if you have a mobile phone and get sensationalist false scary stories as notifications - check where they come from (long press hold on Android devices to find out) and then stop them.
If you have a Windows desktop or use the Windows Edge browser, it can make a huge differenct to switch off the news feed you get on any new tab - or customize it to remove the sensationalist sources they sadly use:
BLOG: How to switch off the Microsoft Start news feed on every new tab on a Windows computer
For those in our Facebook group if you feel you need to check you can a time in the day when you are more likely to find debunks and when your mind is in a good place.
SEE ALSO
For scared people: many things you may believe about the Ukraine war are EASILY SHOWN to be false or unsupported - example list of claims I fact check because nobody else seems to
I do my fact checking blog posts because I don't know of any other sources that do the same thing, especially not in clear ways understandable to scared and panicking people.
There isn’t any risk of Russia attacking NATO either. If that worries you please see:
There isn’t any risk of a world war.
Sky News' military analyst, Sean Bell to young kids: “we are NOT on the verge of World War 3” and “we are NOT about to have a nuclear confrontation” - shortened version
I hope this helps some of the scared people we help,
That helps explain how huge NATO’s technological advantage is over Russia.
It has quotes from Admiral Radakin who heads the UK defence and General Petreaus explaining how safe we are for any of us in NATO countries.
CONTACT ME VIA PM OR ON FACEBOOK OR EMAIL
You can Direct Message me on Substack - but I check this rarely. Or better, email me at support@robertinventor.com
Or best of all Direct Message me on Facebook if you are okay joining Facebook. My Facebook profile is here:. Robert Walker I usually get Facebook messages much faster than on the other platforms as I spend most of my day there.
FOR MORE HELP
To find a debunk see: List of articles in my Debunking Doomsday blog to date See also my Short debunks
Scared and want a story debunked? Post to our Facebook group. Please look over the group rules before posting or commenting as they help the group to run smoothly
Facebook group Doomsday Debunked
Also do join our facebook group if you can help with fact checking or to help scared people who are panicking.
SEARCH LIST OF DEBUNKS
You can search by title and there’s also an option to search the content of the blog using a google search.
CLICK HERE TO SEARCH: List of articles in my Debunking Doomsday blog to date
NEW SHORT DEBUNKS
I do many more fact checks and debunks on our facebook group than I could ever write up as blog posts. They are shorter and less polished but there is a good chance you may find a short debunk for some recent concern.
I often write them up as “short debunks”
See Latest short debunks for new short debunks
I also tweet the debunks and short debunks to my Blue Sky page here:
I do the short debunks more often but they are less polished - they are copies of my longer replies to scared people in the Facebook group.
I go through phases when I do lots of short debunks. Recently I’ve taken to converting comments in the group into posts in the group that resemble short debunks and most of those haven’t yet been copied over to the wiki.
TIPS FOR DEALING WITH DOOMSDAY FEARS
If suicidal or helping someone suicidal see my:
BLOG: Supporting someone who is suicidal
If you have got scared by any of this, health professionals can help. Many of those affected do get help and find it makes a big difference.
They can’t do fact checking, don’t expect that of them. But they can do a huge amount to help with the panic, anxiety, maladaptive responses to fear and so on.
Also do remember that therapy is not like physical medicine. The only way a therapist can diagnose or indeed treat you is by talking to you and listening to you. If this dialogue isn’t working for whatever reason do remember you can always ask to change to another therapist and it doesn’t reflect badly on your current therapist to do this.
Also check out my Seven tips for dealing with doomsday fears based on things that help those scared, including a section about ways that health professionals can help you.
I know that sadly many of the people we help can’t access therapy for one reason or another - usually long waiting lists or the costs.
There is much you can do to help yourself. As well as those seven tips, see my:
BLOG: Breathe in and out slowly and deeply and other ways to calm a panic attack
BLOG: Tips from CBT
— might help some of you to deal with doomsday anxieties
PLEASE DON’T COMMENT HERE WITH POTENTIALLY SCARY QUESTIONS ABOUT OTHER TOPICS - INSTEAD COMMENT ON POST SET UP FOR IT
If you have potentially scary questions about any other topic please post here: https://robertinventor.substack.com/p/post-to-comment-on-with-off-topic-29a Post to comment on, with off topic potentially scary comments - or send me a private message - or use our group on Facebook
The reason is I often aren't able to respond to comments for some time and the unanswered comment can scare people who come to this post for help on something else
Also even when answered the comment may scare them because they see it first.
It works much better to put comments on other topics on a special post for them.
It is absolutely fine to digress and go off topic in conversations here - this is specifically about things you want help with that might scare people.
PLEASE DON’T TELL A SCARED PERSON THAT THE THING THEY ARE SCARED OF IS TRUE WITHOUT A VERY RELIABLE SOURCE OR IF YOU ARE A VERY RELIABLE SOURCE YOURSELF - AND RESPOND WITH CARE
This is not like a typical post on substack. It is specifically to help people who are very scared with voluntary fact checking. Please no politically motivated exaggerations here. And please be careful, be aware of the context.
We have a rule in the Facebook group and it is the same here.
If you are scared and need help it is absolutely fine to comment about anything to do with the topic of the post that scares you.
But if you are not scared or don’t want help with my voluntary fact checking please don’t comment with any scary material.
If you respond to scared people here please be careful with your sources. Don’t tell them that something they are scared of is true without excellent reliable sources, or if you are a reliable source yourself.
It also matters a lot exactly HOW you respond. E.g. if someone is in an area with a potential for earthquakes there’s a big difference between a reply that talks about the largest earthquake that’s possible there even when based on reliable sources, and says nothing about how to protect themselves and the same reply with a summary and link to measures to take to protect yourself in an earthquake.
Thanks!