3I / Atlas is an interstellar comet - NOT a spaceship - a spaceship would change course to fly past or visit Earth or at least some of our planets and take less than 5,000 years to travel a light year
3I / Atlas is an interstellar comet. Our sun is losing comets every year. Though s,a;; comets around other stars are far too small to see from here, other stars must lose them too. It likely left another star millions of years ago.
Before 3I / Atlas started to fly into the sun’s gravitational field it was flying at 1/5000 of the speed of light, taking 5,000 years to travel every light year (at 58 km / second relative to our sun, its “hyperbolic excess velocity” or velocity between stars)/ That’s well over 20,000 years to get from the nearest star. See calculation details here: https://www.perplexity.ai/search/what-is-3i-atlas-s-velocity-be-wbed8HEnRp690Wn63PpDsw
It's harmless. Just a regular comet but from another star. It's just far too slow for a spaceship and showing no interest in any of the planets of our solar system and looks just like a comet made up of the materials a comet would be made of.
Loeb is an eccentric astronomer who has an interest in trying to reinterpret ordinary things as interstellar comets and asteroids as spacecraft. It seems to be for fun or intellectual curiosity.
It's not remotely plausible that any of them are even derilict spaceship. The galaxy would have to be choc-a-bloc full of derilict spaceships indistinguishable from comets which makes no sense. I think his papers are intended as light hearted. He can’t be really serious about it
Loeb is the same guy who hypothesized that Oumuamua was an alien spaceship.
BLOG: Did a solar sail from an extra terrestrial civilization fly past us last year
— is that what Oumuamua is? Just a rather far fetched but entertaining article in Scientific American by Harvard researchers
READ HERE: https://debunkingdoomsday.quora.com/Did-a-solar-sail-from-an-extra-terrestrial-civilization-fly-past-us-last-year-is-that-what-Oumuamua-is-Just-a-rather
BLOG: Could the interstellar asteroid Oumuamua be an alien probe? No not likely everything can be explained naturally
READ HERE: https://debunkingdoomsday.quora.com/Could-the-interstellar-asteroid-Oumuamua-be-an-alien-probe
It is also not a plausible trajectory for a spaceship interested in Earth. Comes nowhere near us or any of the other planets.
After taking tens to more likely hundreds of thousands or millions or billions of years to get here - a spacecraft would surely adjust its path slightly to pass close to say, Jupiter, or Saturn or Earth or something interesting.
He is a respected astronomer and it’s not like the fake claims about Nibiru etc.
there could very well be extraterrestrials live around other stars.
they could send spacecraft to explore other star systems like ours.
That much is possible.
But then this comet doesn't remotely resemble what you'd expect of a spaceship from another star.
That is where it gets impossible.
A spaceship would be far faster,
it would be interested in Earth and the planets
would surely detour to explore something or other in our solar system
even if not interested in Earth for some reason (unlikely), it might be interested in Jupiter say or Titan (methane oceans) or Neptune's moon Titan or SOMETHING.
not just go through with no interest in anything.
Also
It wouldn't be covered in ice and dust.
It wouldn't travel so slowly it would take tens of thousands or millions of years to get here.
It would have a space drive and be able to change direction and speed
It would likely send probes to look at the planets
So it makes no sense as a spacecraft. But he tries to reinterpret it as a spacecraft because that's what he does even though it doesn't make much sense. But intellectually an interesting exercise.
For the fake planet Nibiru see:
BLOG: Who else says Nibiru is nonsense?
READ HERE: https://debunkingdoomsday.quora.com/Who-else-says-Nibiru-is-nonsense
BLOG: Short summary of why Nibiru is impossible
— indeed, absurd
— or any other planet flying past or hitting Earth
READ HERE: https://debunkingdoomsday.quora.com/Short-summary-of-why-Nibiru-is-impossible-indeed-absurd-or-any-other-planet-flying-past-or-hitting-Earth
Rare sun facing tail was a dust plume ejected from sunny side towards the sun - it also has a faint normal tail
This is the explanation of the sun facing tail - it was dust ejected from the sun facing side which was illuminated more than the side away from the sun.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3I/ATLAS#Sun-facing_plume
So it was really a dust plume ejected towards the sun - it also has a normal tail pointed away from the sun which is rather faint but become more visible as it came closer.
Just the tip of the iceberg - there are likely dozens fly past every year, faint, fast and far away and we never see them - when the Vera Rubin telescope comes online in late 2025 we should spot several a month of these interstellar comets
Right now we see only 1 interstellar object every year or two, but by the time the more sensitive Vera Rubin telescope comes online later this year we can likely see several per month, as it can see them 4 times further away with 64 times the search volume. It could be one a week or more at the higher range of estimates. Likely at least one every one or two months.
We can also estimate it very roughly, 3 objects in 8 years since 2017. Multiply by 64, and you’d get 24 objects a year (3*64/8) or two a month.
Objects like this have been flying through our solar system all the time, dozens a year actually, but it's only recently that we've had the all sky scans that let us spot the nearest and brightest of them. They are faint, fast moving and easy to miss.
This shows what oumumua looked like in its discovery photo - that faint line. This is the first interstellar object discovered, in 2017.
That is because it moved during the time the photo was being taken - the second image shows the effect of moving the telescope at exactly the speed of the comet to brighten it and stretch everything else out into lines.
Photographs from the paper about discovery of Oumuamua here
Meech et al., 2017. DISCOVERY AND CHARACTERIZATION OF THE FIRST KNOWN INTERSTELLAR OBJECT see: https://www.eso.org/public/archives/releases/sciencepapers/eso1737/eso1737a.pdf
It's really only in the last decade that we've had the ability to detect them and then it's
partly the computer programs, it's only very recently that they've been able to spot fast moving faint fuzzy things like this and distinguish them from glitches and noise.
Our telescopes take so many photos of such large areas every night that it’s impossible now for humans to look at all the photos to try to find comets, especially tiny faint ones like this. So we have to use computer programs to sift through the data looking for these very faint objects. Our computers get better and better at doing this.
Once the computers find them, then we can point our telescopes at them at high magnification and photograph them. But until recently comets like 3I / Atlas would fly past at a great distance and be gone without any human being noticing them.
All harmless - they were passing by anyway and the only new thing is we can spot them.
Right now we spot one of them every few years that makes it seem a bit more plausible that they are alien starships. But when we spot several a month all flying past with no changes of course and none of them paying any attention to our solar system it will be obvious they are just comets.
Here are some estimates of the number we may find:
"The solar system science community was already excited about the potential discoveries Rubin will make in the next 10 years, including an unprecedented number of interstellar objects," said co-researcher Dr Rosemary Dorsey, of the University of Helsinki.
"The discovery of 3I suggests that prospects for Rubin may now be more optimistic; we may find about 50 objects [in 10 years or 5 a year], of which some would be similar in size to 3I. This week's news, especially just after the Rubin First Look images, makes the upcoming start of observations all the more exciting."
Another estimate from 2023 gives a wider range from 0 to 70 objects a year.
So that could be as many as more than one a week.
QUOTE STARTS
Marceta, a professor at the University of Belgrade and lead author of the new paper, said that they developed a method to generate a population of interstellar asteroids and utilized the OIF to assess how many of these objects can be detected by LSST under various conditions.
"Given the unconstrained nature of the interstellar objects' population, we considered a wide range of possibilities for critical parameters," he said. "This encompassed size distributions, the range of albedo, and their assumed motions in interstellar space. Taking all these factors into account, we arrived at a range of 0-70 objects per year."
This assumes that at least that many interstellar objects actually exist. Marceta said they assumed a number density of 0.1 object per cubic astronomical unit, a value implied by the detection of 'Oumuamua, "which remains highly uncertain, similar to other parameters associated with this population," he said.
However, because ISOs move so fast, they might more difficult to detect with the Rubin Observatory because of an effect called 'trailing loss.'
"It's an effect that occurs when a rapidly moving object is within the telescope's FOV," Marceta explained. "To excite a pixel on the CCD, a certain number of photons must land on it during the exposure time (which is 15 seconds in our simulations). For stationary objects like stars, all photons during the exposure time hit the same area of the CCD. However, for an object that changes its position during the exposure time, the photons land on different pixels as it moves."
…
"The faster the object moves, the greater the number of pixels that receive the photons, making trailing loss more noticeable," he said. "Our simulation shows that interstellar objects can appear in the telescope's field of view with velocities significantly exceeding those of the fastest solar system populations, which makes this issue particularly important."
…
"It is possible that the number density of 'Oumuamua-like objects is higher than currently estimated due to a large fraction of interstellar objects currently undetectable due to trailing loss and rapid sky motions," they write.
The more we can find, the better, because some of these will be in the perfect trajectory for an interstellar interceptor mission. Learning details about objects from other solar systems could fundamentally change our view of the universe and our place in it.
For some of the sources see my Perplexity AI search
https://www.perplexity.ai/search/why-are-we-only-just-now-spott-8Oc97._aSoCtEkxN4Vypzg
For Oumuamua see:
BLOG: Did a solar sail from an extra terrestrial civilization fly past us last year
— is that what Oumuamua is? Just a rather far fetched but entertaining article in Scientific American by Harvard researchers
READ HERE: https://debunkingdoomsday.quora.com/Did-a-solar-sail-from-an-extra-terrestrial-civilization-fly-past-us-last-year-is-that-what-Oumuamua-is-Just-a-rather
And for Loeb’s similar far fetched speculation about Oumuamua see:
BLOG: Could the interstellar asteroid Oumuamua be an alien probe? No not likely everything can be explained naturally
READ HERE: https://debunkingdoomsday.quora.com/Could-the-interstellar-asteroid-Oumuamua-be-an-alien-probe
See also
Not that much of a coincidence that it’s only 5 degrees away from Earth’s orbital plane - 1 in 18 chance it’s that close - and may be observational or software reasons to see such objects more easily
Loeb makes a big deal of this, but it's not exactly aligned. It is pretty close to the ecliptic only 5% inclination.
https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/tools/sbdb_lookup.html#/?sstr=C%2F2025%20N1&view=VOP The previous one 2I / Borisov came in at a very steep angle. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2I/Borisov#Trajectory
But 5 degrees out of 90 degrees is only 1 in 18. More precisely +-5 out of +-90 (coming from above or below) or about 1 in 18.
We expect 50 a year so most likely more than 2 a year will be that close to the ecliptic.
We'll see with Vera Rubin. It will observe the entire sky But it would be exceedingly odd if there is a bias towards many more of them coming in at a shallow angle like that. Because Earth's orbit is tilted at a steep angle relative to the galactic plane and planets orbit stars at pretty much random angles so why would it align with our orbit.
ATLAS is optimized for finding objects headed for Earth it is an all sky survey so I think it would spot an interstellar object at any angle I'm not sure why it would favour that 5% but it might be partly observational bias of some sort.
So 1 in 18 isn't much of a thing. It is two times easier than throwing two sixes with dice. That's 1 in 36.
Also it pretty much HAS to cross the plane of the ecliptic - any straight line obviously would and it’s only slightly curved by our sun - and if it was curved a lot by the sun it might even cross the ecliptic twice. But not crossing it at all would be pretty hard to do (not sure if it is even gravitationally possible)
Then there may be an observational bias - the ATLAS telescopes observe the whole sky from their location every 3 days, but they are less able to spot anything near the horizon and can’t see half the sky and can only observe at night. All that could easily cause some observational bias to make the 1 in 18 less or more than that.
Then they used custom software to search for interestellar objects - to sspot fast faint tracks - the software might written in ways that makes it easier to spot particular trajectories than others.
Also there may well be 6 or more parameters that could show up as anomalous. With Oumuamua it was the non gravitational acceleration. With this one it’s the angle to the ecliptic. With Borisov he didn’t notice any anomaly.
EVERY comet has some things about it that are strange. It is rather like every human being - almost every human being - has something about them that's unique unless they are twins or accidental twins (people who look identical though not related). They are always finding odd things about one comet or another.
So - comets, and something odd about it for comet geeks, they go together just like unique features (at least for other humans) go together with being human.
I've never thought it was a spaceship for a second. Because comets are ALWAYS strange in one way or another and it made no sense as a spaceship.
Normal gases for a comet
This is a good article about the comet by a journalist working closely with an expert.
QUOTE STARTS
Now, consider this: carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide, and water-ice are the three “big” ices found in Solar System comets, making up around 99% of comet ices. (Others include methane ice and nitrogen ice.)
It only takes low temperatures to evaporate off carbon monoxide, nitrogen, and methane ice; 40K will easily do it, which means that even for objects located beyond the orbit of Neptune, these ices can be sublimated away.
Water-ice is very difficult to boil or sublimate away, requiring temperatures at hundreds of kelvin. Objects need to be much closer than Jupiter to begin evaporating/sublimating water-ice away: at about one-and-a-half times the distance to Mars from the Sun.
And carbon dioxide is in the middle: requiring temperatures of ~100 K to sublimate away, or distances from the Sun comparable to the planet Saturn.
...
[Its spectrum looks very much like a Kuiper belt object from our solar system - a belt of comets that orbits outside of Neptune]
What’s specifically remarkable about 3I/ATLAS may be its water-ice to carbon dioxide ratio, with a large excess of CO2 (especially that strong gas emission) compared to the amount of water present, suggesting that perhaps this object either had an unusual origin in terms of its composition for a Kuiper belt object, or that it’s more differentiated in terms of composition than a standard Kuiper belt object.
Only a small amount of carbon monoxide is present, but unlike SPHEREx, JWST is sensitive enough to see it.
...
Despite unfounded speculations that 3I/ATLAS could be an alien artifact, the data instead shows that it is alien-like in the sense that it originated from an alien star system in the Milky Way, but naturally: the same way Kuiper belt objects exist in our own Solar System.
Moreover, 3I/ATLAS isn’t just comet-like, it’s a special type of comet-like, akin to the evolved comets (like Hartley 2) that we find in our own Solar System: the old, semi-fragmenting short period comets.
To be sure, though, while Hartley 2 will likely be gone completely in the next ~1000 years or so, the one close pass of 3I/ATLAS through our Solar System won’t significantly change its composition.
After passing by our Sun, it will exit the Solar System, likely encountering many other stars over at least hundreds of millions of years further. There are likely at least sextillions of these objects flying through interstellar space, far outnumbering the stars and planets of our galaxy.
Rather than scream “aliens!” every time we find a new one, we’re instead entering an era where we’re identifying, measuring, and learning about the origins of these leftover materials from the primordial formation of stellar and planetary systems beyond our own.
Our imaginations may be limitless, but the very enterprise of science demands that we constrain them to be consistent with both the full suite of data that we collect about the Universe and the fewest number of unnecessary, extraneous assumptions in order to explain what we observe.
3I/ATLAS is definitely comet-like, but potentially a slightly different comet, with possibly different water-to-carbon dioxide ratios, than the comets of Kuiper belt origin we’re more familiar with.
Most importantly, this isn’t the end of the story, but rather our first steps into categorizing, identifying, and studying objects of interstellar origin that pass through our Solar System.
With the dawn of the Vera Rubin Observatory era of astronomy now upon us, we’re bound to detect many more of these interstellar interloper objects in the years to come, improving our understanding of how these objects that permeate the interstellar reaches of our galaxy come to be, evolve, and eventually perish amongst the stars.
https://bigthink.com/starts-with-a-bang/spherex-jwst-comet-3i-atlas/
Carrie Lisse who advised the journalist has an impressive resume. He is a member of many of the teams of scientists that study comets, he's discovered stars and exoplanets, Led NASA Comet ISON and Comet Siding Spring Observing Campaigns (2013-2014)
https://johnshopkins.academia.edu/CareyLisse/CurriculumVitae
Explains at the end:
QUOTE The author acknowledges Carey M. Lisse for extremely helpful discussions about SPHEREx data and the nature of 3I/ATLAS.
Carey Lisse has authored or co-authored 364 papers
QUOTE Dr. Lisse has over 36 years of experience in experimental and observational research that includes astrophysics, detector physics, optics, electronics, and remote sensing data analysis. At JHU-APL, he is involved with studying the physical properties of primitive solar system objects; the rock-forming dust contained in comets, the IPD cloud, the Proto-Solar Nebula, and YSOs; x-ray emission from solar system bodies and the heliosphere; and designing, building, and operating Solar System spacecraft missions
The article itself has a very minor error, likely just added by the journalist, not something that Carrie Lisse researches:
QUOTE is about 2.7 kilometers in radius: comparable to the radius of the asteroid that is suspected to have extincted the non-avian dinosaurs on Earth some 65 million years ago.
The dinosaur asteroid likely is 10 km in diameter which sounds similar but 40 times smaller in volume than that (10/2.9)^3. So it might seem similar in diameter but volume wise it's far smaller. It’s 1000 times smaller if this comet is 1 km in diameter.
That's the only error I spotted based on my background knowledge of meteorites and comets. Not relevant to anything else in the article. Not relevant to us as we are at no risk from it.
No way that Juno would be redirected away from its important work around Jupiter to observe a comet that is likely a typical interstellar comet out of 50 a year once we can observe more of them
Juno is not going to look at it. What everyone knows, including Loeb, is that soon we will have maybe as many as 50 of these a year or more discovered with the Vera Rubin telescope.
So we can surely develop a spacecraft to go visit one of them once we know more about their orbits, a dedicated spacecraft just to fly past and we likely find one that is far easier to fly past than 3I / ATLAS.
Juno is doing very useful work. If there was only one interstellar comet fly past per century maybe.
But when we will soon have dozens of them a year then we don't need to be so impatient as send a valuable spacecraft off to look closely at the first one to come within reach.
Why nearby alien civilizations would be here already if they exist and why we can expect a civilization to be respectful of biodiversity and other species based on our own progression as a civilization over the centuries - in short an advanced alien civilization is likely civilized
If there are aliens nearby they could surely get to us far sooner, in decades. Also they’d have sent robotic spacecraft and there is no way they would just ignore such an interesting planet as Earth in their backyard.
So, if there are aliens close enough to get to us they surely already know we are here and would have robotic spacecraft in our solar system, and have likely visited us from time to time in the past.
Since they could have evolved to civilization any time in the last 10 billion years or more, it’s not at all plausible that they reach the same level of technology as us just a few centuries or millennia in advance.
As an example, so far the oldest known "solar twin" almost exactly like our sun is 8.2 billion years old so if evolution took exactly the same time and they developed a civilization at the same time as us, then it should be a civilization 3.6 billion years old by now.
https://debunkingdoomsday.quora.com/Why-we-don-t-need-to-fear-an-alien-invasion
They would surely have known about us at least since the ice ages, most likely since the dinosaurs.
Yet wherever we go in our solar system we see no traces of them. No footprints - and footprints would last for thousands of years on the Moon or Mars. These are the footprints from the Apollo landing:
No factories, no mining sites, no attempt to make use of the vast resources in our solar system of metals, ice, organics, nothing.
See my:
BLOG: Why we don’t need to fear an alien invasion
READ HERE: https://debunkingdoomsday.quora.com/Why-we-don-t-need-to-fear-an-alien-invasion
If they were interested and expansive, they could have taken over Earth long ago indeed we would be the aliens.
So either they don't exist or never developed technology or not interested in space travel - or they have a very strict policy of leaving our planet for us to develop ourselves.
TEXT ON GRAPHIC:
If there are aliens here they know us well and mean no harm.
Mammoth slightly puzzled by a UFO
Combines images from: File:Alien in a UFO Cartoon.jpg - Wikimedia Commons
and File:Woolly mammoth (Mammuthus primigenius) - Mauricio Antón.jpg - Wikimedia Commons
TEXT ON GRAPHIC
If there are aliens they have likely been here at least since the ice ages (probably since the dinosaurs) and probably have video and photos of herds of mammoths to share with us.
They would be far advanced of us and no way they be surprised by us and no way we could capture their technology and they can’t mean any harm to us - if they are here they leave not just Earth but the entire solar system untouched as far as we can see
This is a graphic I got Bing Chat to make for me. It’s quite fun though of course no substitute for a professional graphics artist.
For more about this:
BLOG: UFO’s can’t be aliens
— may be misinformation to confuse spies
— or a new scientific phenomenon like “red sprites”
— if we have aliens must be far ahead of us
— likely watched Earth at least since mammoths
— couldn’t be captured
— likely wise / kind
READ HERE: https://debunkingdoomsday.quora.com/UFO-s-can-t-be-aliens-may-be-misinformation-to-confuse-spies-or-a-new-scientific-phenomenon-like-red-sprites-if
Also we can expect a mature ET civilization to be more, not less civilized than us.
TEXT ON GRAPHIC
Why a mature ET civilization would be based on biorespect, renewable technology, sustainability and galaxy protection, making their presence almost undetectable to us - like ET the movie but without the sentimentality
E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial, review: 'redefined popular sci-fi'
For more on this:
Also they would not see us as like insects.
Much more here:
BLOG: Our pale blue dot as a remarkable patch of life in the galaxy
— and how a largely lifeless galaxy may be a wonderful place to live
— exploring it sustainably
— protecting its biodiversity and extraterrestrial life and civilizations as we explore
READ HERE: https://doomsdaydebunked.miraheze.org/wiki/Our_pale_blue_dot_as_a_remarkable_patch_of_life_in_the_galaxy_-_and_how_a_largely_lifeless_galaxy_may_be_a_wonderful_place_to_live_-_exploring_it_sustainably_-_protecting_its_biodiversity_and_extraterrestrial_life_and_civilizations_as_we_explore
See also
You are safe from the comet 3I / Atlas - can't hit us - never comes anywhere near us
3I/Atlas can't hit us. They don't yet know its exact size it could be up to tens of kilometres across, but its orbit would be the same even if it was as heavy as the Moon (not going to be anything like that heavy)
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TIPS FOR DEALING WITH DOOMSDAY FEARS
If suicidal or helping someone suicidal see my:
BLOG: Supporting someone who is suicidal
If you have got scared by any of this, health professionals can help. Many of those affected do get help and find it makes a big difference.
They can’t do fact checking, don’t expect that of them. But they can do a huge amount to help with the panic, anxiety, maladaptive responses to fear and so on.
Also do remember that therapy is not like physical medicine. The only way a therapist can diagnose or indeed treat you is by talking to you and listening to you. If this dialogue isn’t working for whatever reason do remember you can always ask to change to another therapist and it doesn’t reflect badly on your current therapist to do this.
Also check out my Seven tips for dealing with doomsday fears based on things that help those scared, including a section about ways that health professionals can help you.
I know that sadly many of the people we help can’t access therapy for one reason or another - usually long waiting lists or the costs.
There is much you can do to help yourself. As well as those seven tips, see my:
BLOG: Breathe in and out slowly and deeply and other ways to calm a panic attack
BLOG: Tips from CBT
— might help some of you to deal with doomsday anxieties
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PLEASE DON’T TELL A SCARED PERSON THAT THE THING THEY ARE SCARED OF IS TRUE WITHOUT A VERY RELIABLE SOURCE OR IF YOU ARE A VERY RELIABLE SOURCE YOURSELF - AND RESPOND WITH CARE
This is not like a typical post on substack. It is specifically to help people who are very scared with voluntary fact checking. Please no politically motivated exaggerations here. And please be careful, be aware of the context.
We have a rule in the Facebook group and it is the same here.
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Thanks!