You are safe from the comet 3I / Atlas - can't hit us - never comes anywhere near us
3I/Atlas can't hit us. They don't yet know its exact size it could be up to tens of kilometres across, but its orbit would be the same even if it was as heavy as the Moon (not going to be anything like that heavy)
If it split into pieces all those pieces would follow the exact same orbit except for small shifts due to outgassing of the dust / gas like small jets which can't shift them far. That goes back to Galileo's experiment where he supposedly dropped a heavy and a light object off the leaning tower of Pisa at the same time and noticed they both hit the ground in the same instant.
If an object is very light like a feather it falls more slowly but that's because of air resistance. If you drop a feather and a hammer on the Moon both hit the ground together.
This also means that a feather will follow the same orbit in space under gravity as a hammer - except for minute differences due to the pressure of the solar wind. This greatly simplifies calculations for instance about how to get to the Moon.
This comet is at most a few tens of kilometers across.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3I/ATLAS
When they say they don't know the size then that's normal for a comet.
But it makes no difference whether it's a normal comet from the outer solar system or interstellar. The orbit doesn't depend on what it is made of or where it comes from.
We know the orbit very well and there is no risk whatsoever.
It is not a star. It would be far brighter if it was a star and far far larger. It is also far too small to be a planet. It is just a comet. It's hard to work out the exact size because of the gas / dust clouds but they can work out an approximate size. So they have a range of possible sizes.
It comes nowhere near Earth.
It is of some interest to astronomers because it may come from stars that are in a different part of the Milky way disk from us, which could be also very ancient, over 7 billion years old potentially.
The red dashed line here shows how far above and below the disk of the Milky Way it travels. The stars that are in orbits like that are over 7 billion years old - so the comet could be too.
QUOTE STARTS
Comet 3I/ATLAS appears to hail from the outer thick disk of the Milky Way, versus the thin inner disk where stars like our Sun typically reside. Astronomers extrapolate this from the relatively steep path of 3I/ATLAS’s orbit around the galaxy. Ancient stars tend to reside in the Milky Way’s thick disk population. If 3I/ATLAS formed and was subsequently ejected from such a system long ago, it could be on the order of over seven billion years old.
A side-view simulation of our Milky Way Galaxy, showing the orbit of 3I/ATLAS (in red) versus our Sun. Credit. M. Hopkins/Ōtautahi-Oxford team. Base map: ESA/Gaia/DPAC/Stefan Payne-Wardenaar. CC-BY-SA 4.0. A side-view simulation of our Milky Way Galaxy, showing the orbit of 3I/ATLAS (in red) versus our Sun. Credit: M. Hopkins/Ōtautahi-Oxford team. Base map: ESA/Gaia/DPAC/Stefan Payne-Wardenaar. CC-BY-SA 4.0.
https://www.universetoday.com/articles/newly-discovered-interstellar-comet-is-billions-of-years-older-than-the-solar-system
My comment: I don’t think this necessarily means that it left its birth star 7 billion years ago - though it might have since many comets would get lost from the newly formed star soon after birth - but it could also have left the star at some point since then. Either way, from this orbit, it likely first formed 7 billion years ago and has spent the time since then either orbiting its birth star which in turn orbited as shown, or has been traveling independently in a similar orbit.
The reason is that when a comet is ejected from a star it would typically through interstellar space at a slow speed relative to the motion of the star itself in the galaxy so it follows a similar orbit to its birth star.
These are the main comets discovered so far this year.
https://cobs.si/comet/
We know all the asteroids and comets in Near Earth orbits and there are only 8 of 10 km and above, 4 comets and 4 asteroids, and none can harm us for thousands of years.
Then for longer period comets then the chance of any of those is exceedingly remote expected wait time millions of years because they are so very rare. Only one in all of recorded history, in 1770, Lexell's comet passed by very far away six times the distance of the Moon.
Interstellar comets are vastly less common even than long period comets. And are not in any way connected to our solar system.
BLOG: Why you don’t need to worry about impacts from comets
READ HERE: https://debunkingdoomsday.quora.com/Why-you-don-t-need-to-worry-about-impacts-from-comets
For asteroids generally
BLOG: Why you don’t need to be scared of asteroids
— far less risk than lightning or even the very rare risk of death from a giant hailstone
And cosmological / astronomical events
BLOG: You are safe from: black holes, rogue stars or planets, supernovae, our sun, gamma ray bursts, big asteroids, comets and anything cosmological
READ HERE: https://robertinventor.substack.com/p/you-are-safe-from-black-holes-rogue
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FOR MORE HELP
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NEW SHORT DEBUNKS
I do many more fact checks and debunks on our facebook group than I could ever write up as blog posts. They are shorter and less polished but there is a good chance you may find a short debunk for some recent concern.
I often write them up as “short debunks”
See Latest short debunks for new short debunks
I also tweet the debunks and short debunks to my Blue Sky page here:
I do the short debunks more often but they are less polished - they are copies of my longer replies to scared people in the Facebook group.
I go through phases when I do lots of short debunks. Recently I’ve taken to converting comments in the group into posts in the group that resemble short debunks and most of those haven’t yet been copied over to the wiki.
TIPS FOR DEALING WITH DOOMSDAY FEARS
If suicidal or helping someone suicidal see my:
BLOG: Supporting someone who is suicidal
If you have got scared by any of this, health professionals can help. Many of those affected do get help and find it makes a big difference.
They can’t do fact checking, don’t expect that of them. But they can do a huge amount to help with the panic, anxiety, maladaptive responses to fear and so on.
Also do remember that therapy is not like physical medicine. The only way a therapist can diagnose or indeed treat you is by talking to you and listening to you. If this dialogue isn’t working for whatever reason do remember you can always ask to change to another therapist and it doesn’t reflect badly on your current therapist to do this.
Also check out my Seven tips for dealing with doomsday fears based on things that help those scared, including a section about ways that health professionals can help you.
I know that sadly many of the people we help can’t access therapy for one reason or another - usually long waiting lists or the costs.
There is much you can do to help yourself. As well as those seven tips, see my:
BLOG: Breathe in and out slowly and deeply and other ways to calm a panic attack
BLOG: Tips from CBT
— might help some of you to deal with doomsday anxieties
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This is not like a typical post on substack. It is specifically to help people who are very scared with voluntary fact checking. Please no politically motivated exaggerations here. And please be careful, be aware of the context.
We have a rule in the Facebook group and it is the same here.
If you are scared and need help it is absolutely fine to comment about anything to do with the topic of the post that scares you.
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It also matters a lot exactly HOW you respond. E.g. if someone is in an area with a potential for earthquakes there’s a big difference between a reply that talks about the largest earthquake that’s possible there even when based on reliable sources, and says nothing about how to protect themselves and the same reply with a summary and link to measures to take to protect yourself in an earthquake.
CONTACT ME VIA PM OR ON FACEBOOK OR EMAIL
You can Direct Message me on Substack - but I check this rarely. Or better, email me at support@robertinventor.com
Or best of all Direct Message me on Facebook if you are okay joining Facebook. My Facebook profile is here:. Robert Walker I usually get Facebook messages much faster than on the other platforms as I spend most of my day there.
FOR MORE HELP
To find a debunk see: List of articles in my Debunking Doomsday blog to date See also my Short debunks
Scared and want a story debunked? Post to our Facebook group. Please look over the group rules before posting or commenting as they help the group to run smoothly
Facebook group Doomsday Debunked
Also do join our facebook group if you can help with fact checking or to help scared people who are panicking.
SEARCH LIST OF DEBUNKS
You can search by title and there’s also an option to search the content of the blog using a google search.
CLICK HERE TO SEARCH: List of articles in my Debunking Doomsday blog to date
NEW SHORT DEBUNKS
I do many more fact checks and debunks on our facebook group than I could ever write up as blog posts. They are shorter and less polished but there is a good chance you may find a short debunk for some recent concern.
I often write them up as “short debunks”
See Latest short debunks for new short debunks
I also tweet the debunks and short debunks to my Blue Sky page here:
. doomsdaydebunks.bsky.social
I do the short debunks more often but they are less polished - they are copies of my longer replies to scared people in the Facebook group.
I go through phases when I do lots of short debunks. Recently I’ve taken to converting comments in the group into posts in the group that resemble short debunks and most of those haven’t yet been copied over to the wiki.
TIPS FOR DEALING WITH DOOMSDAY FEARS
If suicidal or helping someone suicidal see my:
BLOG: Supporting someone who is suicidal
If you have got scared by any of this, health professionals can help. Many of those affected do get help and find it makes a big difference.
They can’t do fact checking, don’t expect that of them. But they can do a huge amount to help with the panic, anxiety, maladaptive responses to fear and so on.
Also do remember that therapy is not like physical medicine. The only way a therapist can diagnose or indeed treat you is by talking to you and listening to you. If this dialogue isn’t working for whatever reason do remember you can always ask to change to another therapist and it doesn’t reflect badly on your current therapist to do this.
Also check out my Seven tips for dealing with doomsday fears based on things that help those scared, including a section about ways that health professionals can help you.
I know that sadly many of the people we help can’t access therapy for one reason or another - usually long waiting lists or the costs.
There is much you can do to help yourself. As well as those seven tips, see my:
BLOG: Doing what matters at times of stress
— new WHO booklet to help with mental health during COVID19 pandemic
BLOG: Breathe in and out slowly and deeply and other ways to calm a panic attack
BLOG: Tips from CBT
— might help some of you to deal with doomsday anxieties
PLEASE DON’T COMMENT HERE WITH POTENTIALLY SCARY QUESTIONS ABOUT OTHER TOPICS - INSTEAD COMMENT ON POST SET UP FOR IT
PLEASE DON'T COMMENT ON THIS POST WITH POTENTIALLY SCARY QUESTIONS ABOUT ANY OTHER TOPIC:
INSTEAD PLEASE COMMENT HERE:
Doomsday Debunked - fact checking stories that scare you
Post to comment on, with off topic potentially scary comments - or send me a private message - or use our group on Facebook
If you have something scary and new you want debunked please comment here rather than add to another post on a different topic. Or contact me privately, thanks…
Read more
3 months ago · 4 likes · 25 comments · Robert Walker
The reason is I often can’t respond to comments for some time. The unanswered comment can scare people who come to this post for help on something else
Also even an answered comment may scare them because they see the comment before my reply.
It works much better to put comments on other topics on a special post for them.
It is absolutely fine to digress and go off topic in conversations here.
This is specifically about anything that might scare people on a different topic.
PLEASE DON’T TELL A SCARED PERSON THAT THE THING THEY ARE SCARED OF IS TRUE WITHOUT A VERY RELIABLE SOURCE OR IF YOU ARE A VERY RELIABLE SOURCE YOURSELF - AND RESPOND WITH CARE
This is not like a typical post on substack. It is specifically to help people who are very scared with voluntary fact checking. Please no politically motivated exaggerations here. And please be careful, be aware of the context.
We have a rule in the Facebook group and it is the same here.
If you are scared and need help it is absolutely fine to comment about anything to do with the topic of the post that scares you.
But if you are not scared or don’t want help with my voluntary fact checking please don’t comment with any scary material.
If you respond to scared people here please be careful with your sources. Don’t tell them that something they are scared of is true without excellent reliable sources, or if you are a reliable source yourself.
It also matters a lot exactly HOW you respond. E.g. if someone is in an area with a potential for earthquakes there’s a big difference between a reply that talks about the largest earthquake that’s possible there even when based on reliable sources, and says nothing about how to protect themselves and the same reply with a summary and link to measures to take to protect yourself in an earthquake.