Russia is NOT WINNING in Ukraine - it LOST a buffer region in Russia itself - it is well believable Zelensky has a genuine victory plan - with many ways Ukraine can win on the battlefield
Russia tries to present an image of itself as an irresistible force advancing through Ukraine no matter what its allies do to support Ukraine. But it’s the opposite. Russia is very WEAK. That is precisely why Putin is bluffing so much.
Putin bluffs, not because he wants to attack NATO. Because Putin is afraid of the far smaller country Ukraine. He is afraid that Ukraine will win this war and push Russia out of Ukraine.
RUSSIA IS NOT WINNING - THE SMALL ADVANCES IN DONBAS ARE FAR LESS IMPORTANT THAN MAINSTREAM MEDIA MAKES THEM OUT TO BE - AND THE KURSK OBLAST FAR MORE SIGNIFICANT
And Russia is NOT WINNING in Ukraine. The mainstream media is very confusing in its reporting of the war. This is an animated gif I did for two maps shared by Professor Phillips P. OBrien of the changes since January 2024.
Based on two maps shared in . Weekend Update #100: Rather Hard to Believe TBH
You can see Russia’s advance in Eastern Donbas near Pokrovsk. This is what mainstream media go on and on about. Russia has still not reached Pokrovsk and if they ever do it would be another months long battle like the ones for Avdiivka and Bakhmut.
Meanwhile, as you see, Ukraine has captured an equally sized region across the Russian border in Kursk oblast.
The Kursk incursion has far wider strategic significance in the war.
This post is based on material I already shared towards the end of my previous blog posts:
RUSSIA ADVANCES BY DEMOLISHING BUILDINGS, CHURCHES, BUSINESSES, UNIVERSITIES, SHOPS, EVERYTHING OF VALUE AS IT GOES
This is an overview of the situation to help you see how vulnerable Russia really is in this war
Text on graphic: Satellite photographs
Areas of occupied Ukraine demolished by shelling as Russia advances about a kilometer per week demolishing everything as it goes
Ukraine can’t use Russian tactics to demolish occupied Ukraine slowly street by street to liberate it
it takes too long and is too destructive.
Instead it has to use misdirection, strategy and surprise to get through the front line much as for Kursk oblast by exploiting Russia’s vulnerabilities.
it’s already done this three times in 2022, with battle of Kyiv, Kharkiv oblast and Kherson city, and now in 2024 with Kursk oblast
Kurk oblast here
Breaks through Russian railway line supplies for here [border near Kharkiv city]
Vulnerable supply lines here [Luhanks area near the Ukrainian front line]
Ukraine through mine fields here [Verbove]
Vulnerable Azov sea coast road
Mines washed away here [Dnipro river]
Vulnerable Crimea land bridge
Vulnerable Kerch bridge.
Satellite image from: Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) on X
The Ukrainians cut through vital lines of communication. And more importantly, the Russians took their new area in Donbas with a huge loss to Russian tanks, armoured vehicles, soldiers etc.
They also destroy everything as they go. You can see this even in satellite images. That dark area arrowed in the graphic is demolished cities, and villages. Rubble sites.
This is a zoom in on a small part of it.
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.Text on graphic This is how Russia advances about a kilometer per week in Donbas and Southern Ukraine.
- it can't do this to reclaim Kursk oblast because it would be demolishing Russian homes.
Satellite image from: Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) on X
This is what it looked like in Bakhmut for example a year ago - the fighting continued for some time after this so it will be even more in ruins now:
Now contrast this with what happened in Kursk.
UKRAINE IS ABLE TO LIBERATE AREAS WITH ALMOST NO DAMAGE TO THE INHABITANTS OR THEIR HOMES WITH SURPRISE, MISDIRECTION, AND ENCIRCLING THE RUSSIANS
Kursk Ukraine did their counteroffensive with much lower losses of their own vehicles and capturing large numbers of Russian conscripts. They were able to exchange them for Ukrainian fighters who had been kept in Russian prisons since spring 2022.
Ukraine also didn’t damage the houses and businesses there. It did precision strikes on military establishments and it did rapid circling of the soldiers before they knew what was happening and forced the Russians to either retreat or surrender.
They have taken Sudzha pretty much undamaged.
Sudzha after it was taken over by Ukraine as filmed by a Ukrainian soldier
and the first foreign broadcast from Sudzha showing the Russian flag taken down:
and as filmed by an Italian film crew
The main thing to notice is how the buildings are undamaged.
Ukraine also is focusing on looking after the civilians in the regions they occupied. They are used to doing that when liberating occupied Ukraine and they are doing the same in Kurszk oblast for the Russian civilians. After the soldiers capture the area they then switch to looking after the civilians and Ukraine sends a second wave whose main responsibility is to help stabilize the region and look after the civilians. Set up the infrastructure they need for food, medicine, humanitarian aid etc and generally helping them.
See for instance:
. Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) on X
We’ve been used to liberation videos with Ukrainians celebrating being liberated. These are occupation videos but the civilians are treated well and allowed to come and go and their homes are left intact.
Russia has never managed to do that, not since early in the war.
Just the way they were able to keep the civilian homes and business intact by itself showed that Ukraine still has the capacity for surprise, and rapid advances and to encircle Russian forces.
RUSSIA HAS NEVER SUCCEEDED IN A SURPRISE ATTACK LIKE THE ONE IN KURSK OBLAST, AFTER THE INITIAL SURPRISE OF INVADING UKRAINE - WHILE UKRAINE DID SEVERAL MAJOR COUNTEROFFENSIVES LIBERATING LARGE AREAS IN 2022
This is something that Russia has never been able to do apart from its invasion of Ukraine itself.
This video may help if you are not familiar with the details of the war to see the parallels with what happened in 2022. It was a similar situation, the front line was static all summer with Russia advancing slowly in Donbas, and the Western media was saying that Ukraine had no chance and was losing. But then Ukraine turned it all about. It wasn’t such a big surprise for those who followed the war closely.
First, Russia advanced to Kyiv, capital of Ukraine and tried to get within shelling distance of the center, and got part way around it from the north. But then Ukraine cut through their supplies of fuel, munitions etc and forced Russia into a retreat. It did that remarkably with a far weaker army than Russia at that time, by forcing Russia to over-extend itself and then cutting through its supplies.
SITUATION TODAY LOOKS VERY LIKE UKRAINE’S “BAIT AND SWITCH” APPROACH THAT LET IT LIBERATE LARGE AREAS OF KHARKIV OBLAT AND THEN KHERSON CITY IN FALL 2022 - MEETING VERY LITTLE RESISTANCE
However let’s look especially the third phase from the start of the Kharkiv counteroffensive from August 29th 2022 to liberating Kharkiv oblast - that is a bit like the Kursk counteroffensive as Russia eventually had to divert troops from the rest of the front line to stabilize it.
You’ll see how in November 2022, Ukraine rapidly liberated the area of Kherson oblast north of the Dnipro river and then Kherson city itself. Remarkably it liberated Kherson city almost without a fight by cutting through the Russian logistics across the Dnipro river and forced the Russian army to retreat because it ran out of shells, and fuel for its soldiers in Kherson city. Without shells and fuel the Russian army is defenceless and has to retreat.
Though it’s not clear from just the map, Ukraine had done “shaping operations” before all summer destroying munitions dumps throughout occupied Ukraine using HiMARS which added to Russia’s supply problems. This is what the mainstream media missed, following the war - how important it was that Russia was losing its munitions dumps near the front line and getting its supply lines getting damaged.
SIMILARLY TODAY - UKRAINE IS DISTRACTING RUSSIA TO KURSK OBLAST - AND DEGRADING SUPPLY LINES - BUT TEASES RUSSIA THAT ITS REAL OBJECTIVE MAY BE IN KHERSON OBLAST
It is rather similar now in 2024 to the situation in 2022. Back then, Ukraine telegraphed the Kherson counteroffensive for months and then did its first counteroffensive in Kharkiv liberating Kharkiv oblast after using these rumours to distract Russia to move its elite forces and best equipment as far as possible away from Kharkiv oblast. But eventually it did do its counteroffensive in Kherson oblast too.
This year Ukraine has been telegraphing an operation in Kherson oblast for some time, to Russia, but then did a surprise incursion into Kursk oblast in Russia. Even further away from Kherson oblast than Kharkiv oblast.
It’s been doing shaping operations too, blowing up fuel depots throughout much of Russia now not just occupied Ukraine. It also destroyed an estimated 3 months supply of Russian shells and missiles for the front line in 3 days.
This looks very similar.
It may help you see how Russia is NOT really winning this war in Ukraine and the idea that Ukraine has to surrender to Russia makes no sense.
EXAMPLE TO SEE HOW VULNERABLE RUSSIA IS - THE KINBURN SPIT BETWEEN KHERSON CITY AND CRIMEA
There are several places where an incursion the size of the Kursk incursion but across some weak point in the Russian front line could cause major problems for Russia - away from the heavily reinforced positions in Donbas.
The front line is over 1000 km long and is very weak in some places. One of its weak points is Kinburn spit. If Ukraine could take this and advance towards Crimea, it would cut off supplies both ways between Crimea and Kherson oblast
Let’s look at Kinburn Spit, one example of one of several weaknesses in Russia’s front line. It doesn’t risk alerting Russia to anything it doesn’t know already to share this as this is a rumour that was shared by Russian soldiers soon after Ukraine began its incursion into Kursk oblast.
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Text on graphic: TG means Telegram - lots of Russians are saying this is going on right now [AS OF Aug 23, 2024] - it may be a feint but if so Russian soldiers believe it - or may be real.
That one turned out to be fake.
Whatever the route, one way or another Ukraine does ALREADY often send soldiers to Kinburn spit and they provocatively raised a Ukraine flag there two days before the start of the Kursk incursio
n
.Here is the video they shared:
. Special forces install Ukrainian flag on Kinburn Spit
Here is a close-up of Kinburn spit showing one possible route for a naval invasion from Ochakiv to Kinburn spit. This assumes that Ukraine has control or gains control of the artificial fort island that Russia built between Kchakiv and Kinburn spit in 1885 called Ostrov Mayskiy or Fort Isle Pervomaisk
That is via the Russian fort island built in 1885. I can’t find out if Russia holds it at present or Ukraine or neither of them.
The only source I’ve found is a very unreliable source that claimed that on 4th March 2023 the Russians destroyed a secret base where it claims British special forces were teaching Ukrainian soldiers.
This makes no sense but it suggests that at least by March 2023 it was still in Ukrainian control so it may be still under their control today.
COULDN’T THE RUSSIAN NAVY STOP UKRAINE SAILING OVER THE SEA TO KINBURN SPIT? NO - UKRAINE HAS PUSHED THE RUSSIAN NAVY COMPLETLEY OUT OF CRIMEA NEVER MIND KINBURN SPIT
You might think - but what about the Russian navy? How could Ukraine do an attack on Kinburn spit by sea, wouldn’t the Russian Black Sea fleet stop it?
Well the Russian ships no longer dare to sail anywhere NEAR Kinburn spit. So no, they won’t be anywhere to see, not even patrol ships.
#Though 2023 looked very static on the map if you go back to that video, actually a huge amount was going on but in the sea. Ukraine doesn’t even have a navy. But with shore to ship missiles it made it impossible for Russia to go anywhere near Ukraine’s coast and it liberated a huge area of the Black sea - making it impossible for Russia to stop it shipping grain - and it now ships grain from Odessa to the strait of Bosporus to the Med without Russia able to do anything to blockade it.
Well in the same way it also forced the Black Sea fleet completely out of Crimea. They hit the fleet’s Sevastopol headquarters with Stormshadow. They sent naval drones into Sevastopol harbour in southern Crimea and forced all the military ships out of that harbour and eventually out of ALL of Crimea. Remarkable given that Ukraine only has motorized rubber dinghies essentially on its side and the super precise NATO missiles. Against one of the larger modern fleets in the world.
What’s more, Ukraine has sunk nearly a third of the Black Sea fleet and forced it completely out of Crimea and sunk or disabled all the rail ferries over to Crimea. The Kerch bridge railway bridge is no longer able to carry heavy trains.
So - yes Ukraine could potentially invade across the sea to Kinburn spit so long as it has good air cover. Ships won’t be a problem, no Russian ships would dare come anywhere near.
Kinburn spit is one of three likely places that Ukraine has telegraphed to Russia loud and clear.
THREE PLACES UKRAINE COULD BREAK THROUGH THE RUSSIAN FRONT LINES - KINBURN SPIT - KRYNKY AND VERBOVE
Here it is along with the other two, I’ve just rotated and copied the Kursk incursion to the three possible front line incursions to show how Russia can be vulnerable there.
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TEXT ON GRAPHIC:
A Kursk sized counteroffensive could make the South of Ukraine much more vulnerable.
Three likely places that Ukraine has telegraphed to the world
Within artillery range.
Russia now finds it hard to supply Crimea by sea or bridge
If Ukraine liberates Kherson, all of Crimea suddenly becomes impossible for Russia to supply with fuel, munitions, heavy equipment etc OR to evacuate equipment from
The other three places are Krynky near Oleshky sands - this is a wide sandy “mini desert” the other side of the Dnipro river from the side Ukraine holds. Krynky is between the sands and the river, a difficult place for Russia to defend.
Ukraine managed to capture it in 2023, and hold onto it over winter in 2023–4 but then lost it. However it could cross there again.The Dnipro river is vulnerable because the Nova Khakova flood washed away the mine fields the Russians built along its shores.
The other weakness is Verbove. That’s a place where Ukraine got through the Russian mine fields and the dragon’s teeth (which stop tanks) in summer 2023. It held onto it for a long time. It has lost some ground there but may be able to retake it.
If Ukraine gets through there then Tokmak may be in reach and from there it would have artillery control of the Azov coast road and make Kherson oblast very vulnerable.
BIDEN TWEETED THAT UKRAINE WILL WIN THIS WAR AFTER SEEING ZELENSKY’S VICTORY PLAN
After seeing Zelensky’s victory plan, Biden tweeted “Ukraine will win this war”.
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TEXT ON GRAPHIC:
President Biden: “Ukraine will win this war”
After seeing Zelensky’s detailed victory plan.
Zelensky, interviewed on Fox news:
“We took the plan with details and we gave this plan to Biden. We shared some ideas about it with Kamala and with Donald.”
So only Biden has seen the detailed p[lan.
Russia is far weaker than you’d think from the very static front line - losing large amounts of munitions, fuel, and with big problems supplying the front line.
It has several weaknesses along the front line that Ukraine might exploit in a surprise counteroffensive that it would NOT share publicly.
Zelensky interview with Fox News: YouTube
Biden’s tweet and Zelensky’s reply: Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) on X
President Biden tweeted that Ukraine will win this war after seeing Zelensky’s victory plan and Zelensky replied:.
TWEET BY BIDEN AND REPLY BY ZELENSKY
President Biden @POTUS
Ukraine will win this war.
And the United States will continue to stand beside them every step of the way.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський @ZelenskyyUa Thank you, dear @POTUS Joe Biden, for your clear-eyed stance and for your historic support for Ukraine.
Ukraine will win this war with the strong backing of its allies. We are grateful to the United States, President Biden, both parties in Congress, and all Americans for taking the lead in supporting Ukraine and liberty. This vital assistance helps us to protect our people, our independence, and freedom.
We particularly appreciate President Biden's efforts to rally global solidarity with Ukraine. We are already preparing for the upcoming meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group in Ramstein format.
We must win this war together, Ukraine, the United States, and the entire free world, and we will.
7:07 PM · Sep 29, 2024
. Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) on X
UKRAINE’S PAST MAJOR SUCCESSES IN 2022, 2023 AND 2024
We saw Ukraine achieve very major successes. Some of these already mentioned but let’s look at it year by year:
2022: won the battle of Kyiv, its first major surprise, sunk the Moskva, liberated Snake island which was like an unsinkable battleship for Russia close to Ukraine, then the battle to liberate Kharkiv oblast, encircling and taking Izyum, liberating Kherson city, sunk the Moskva. Key to this was the way that Ukraine destroyed munitions dumps and fuel dumps throughout occupied Ukraine in huge conventional explosions.
2023: got through the Russian front lines at Verbove. Crossed the Dnipro at Krynky near Oleshky sands. The experts I followed were expecting a counteroffensive in the fall but then the US Ukraine bill got stuck in Congress and Ukraine had to shift to defense for the rest of 2023.
Pushed the Russian Black Sea fleet entirely out of Crimea, sunk a quarter of the Black Sea fleet, and freed the grain corridor so that Ukraine can export as much grain as it likes without Russian interference - a remarkable moment in military history where a country without a single destroyer soundly defeats one of the largest navies in the world yet it barely hit the news.2024: incursion into Kursk oblast. Now it’s at 1/3 of the Black Sea fleet destroyed and all the rail ferries over to Crimea out of action. Destroyed 3 months supply of shells and missiles for Russia’s war in 3 days including a series of explosions of a huge stockpile of Russian munitions so big it caused a series of minor earthquakes when it exploded (the largest, possibly a conventional explosion of over 1 kiloton and estimated that 30,000 tons total of explosives destroyed with the three strikes) - and destroyed much of Russia’s air defences in Crimea and occupied Ukraine.
As you can see the preparation in 2024 is very similar to in 2022. And whether or not Zelensky actually got deep strike permissions for ATACMS - we’ll likely only know once they start to use them. If they do then Russia as usual will do nothing.
But the mood music is that both Zelensky and Biden are very upbeat about it after their meeting.
WHAT UKRAINE WILL DO NEXT - ACTUAL DETAILS TOP SECRET BUT THEY HAVE BEEN TELEGRAPHING TO THE WORLD THAT THEY WILL TRY TO ADVANCE IN SOUTHERN UKRAINE IN THREE PLACES
It is a slow moving war. Ukraine can win but to do that it needs to do some strategic surprises like the ones in 2022. This shows one way the war could progress not secret at all.
Here I’ve shown what would happen if Ukraine does a Kursk sized counteroffensive in the south.
It may seem far harder because Russia is dug in along the front line - but it does[t seem to have that much by way of prepared defences further back if Ukraine can get through. It focused its attention on the front line itself.
Ukraine is through the front line at Verbove, just below Zaporizhzhia city.
It has been across the river at Krynky near the Oleshky sands a bit up river from Kherson city along the Dnipro river for most of the last year, retreated from it recently but can easily take it again
Finally, Ukraine frequently does assaults on Kinburn spit. Remember that Russia’s navy doesn[t dare to operate anywhere near the Ukrainian coast not even naval patrol boats. Also Russia used to have very sensitive radars that could spot dinghies in Crimea but ukraine destroyed them and several times have launched marines on voyages of hundreds of kilometers from Kherson oblast all the way to near Sevastopol in Crimea. Russia can’t seem to stop these.
Anyway the Ukrainians frequently tease the Russians. This was the rumour widely shared on Telegram:
■ At the same time, personnel and UAVs are being accumulated in Odessa for the future operation. Only in open sources there are hundreds of unmanned boats and UAVs, in reality their number may be approaching a thousand (it is worth considering that there have been no massive UAV strikes for a long time, so the Ukrainian Armed Forces have certainly managed to accumulate them).
- The enemy is considering the possibility of a combined attack with drones and UAVs on Crimea, as well as on objects on the Tendra and Kinburn spits. Judging by the plan, they will be followed by a boat landing in several places, followed by an attempt to expand the control zone.
■ Another stage of the plan involves the landing of several sabotage and reconnaissance groups in the area of large settlements in the south of the region with the aim of attacking headquarters for the general disorganization of command. One of such areas could be the Zhelezny Port - Lazurnoye - Skadovsk line (if we assess the security of the coastline as a whole, then this option certainly cannot be ruled out).
This is what the Russian soldiers in Kinburn spit area at the time suspected Ukraine of planning
From that same tweet:
. WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) on X
It didn’t happen. The Ukrainians were likely just teasing the Russians with fake leaked information.
But this may happen in the future now that Putin has started to commit to a counteroffensive in Kursk oblast:
TWEET Kherson has the longest supply lines for Russia and is therefore the most vulnerable. It is quite possible for Ukraine to gain localized air superiority here. My guess is that they may wait on the Russians committing to a counteroffensive in Kursk before launching.
I expect Ukraine has wargamed “multiple outs” - depending on what Russia does it may have many ways to proceed.
The other main rumour that gets shared by Russian soldiers is a claim of Ukraine having extra brigades about to advance through Verbove towards Tokmak. It never happens but some day it may.
If they do this - Ukraine first needs to do a Kursk oblast sized incursion and hold it. Then it will be permanently behind the Russian front line wherever it is - Kinburn spit, Tokmak, or Oleshky sands or somewhere else. There will no longer be mine fields between it and the Russians and then it can use its drone superiority as in Kursk oblast.
That could liberate Kherson oblast maybe quite quickly by choking off Russia’s supply to it.
Other possibilities here
TEXT ON GRAPHIC
NO RISK of Russia using nukes
- Russian Federation not threatened
- so far Putin treats it as of no significance
- Putin responds to weakness with aggression
- responds to strength with peace negotiations
Until now Ukraine had to defend this border [with Russia] and Russia could leave it undefended and attack anywhere at any time of its choosing.
Both sides had to defend here (border with occupied Ukraine)
Russia was about to attack here, but Ukraine siezed the initiative [Kursk oblast just south of the Ukrainian incursion]
Ukraine attacked back here and now Russia has to defend its border too.
Russia has to move soldiers away from here [Donbas area]
Likely weakly defended behind the front line
If Ukraine cuts through here Russia will find it very hard to supply Crimea [Kerch bridge]
In 2023: Ukraine forced the Russian navy out of Crimea.
mine fields here washed away by the flood [Dnipro river]
Ukrainian resistance [Melitopol]
Ukraine got through main minefield here [Verbove]
Vulnerable Russian supply road [Azov sea coast]
Russia's dilemma:
- where to defend?
Meanwhile Ukrine raises flag temporarily on Kinburn spit
By attacking first across the border into Kursk oblast, Ukraine
is crossing into friendly territory as many there are historically ethnically Ukrainian and still speak Ukrainian
pre-empts Russia's plans to attack Ukraine from Kursk oblast
Immediate objectives:
cuts through a major railway line at Sudzha which supplies the Russian soldiers attacking Ukraine near Kharkiv city
also cuts off supplies to the concentration of Russian troops just south of them waiting for the orders to invade Ukraine from Kursk oblast into Sumy oblast
Disrupts Russian preparations:
let's Ukraine destroy a lot of equipment on the ground that Russia would need to attack Ukraine from Kursk oblast
let's Ukraine launch heavier drones at Russian air fields further into Russia used to drop glide bombs on Ukraine.
Then in the larger picture
forces Russis to move many soldiers and a lot of equipment away from the fighting in Donbas
nearly doubles the front line that Russia now has to defend against Ukraine
may lead to the West giving permission to use ATACMS deep in Russia against glide bombers attacking Ukraine.
Effect on Russia:
does NOT endanger the Russian Federation, this is only a tiny fraction of a percent of it
embarrassing for Putin
he does NOT want to admit it happened and pretends nothing is happening
For the future
gives Ukraine territory that it could exchange back with Ukraine in a peace treaty
gives Ukraine the initiative for the first time since 2022
Morale:
morale boost for Ukraine and Ukrainian soldiers
shows Russians in the area that Russia is weak and that there really is a war going on not just a "special operation"
by treating the Russians in the area in a friendly way treating the civilians with respect, Ukraine shows the people there they are not the monsters Russian propaganda makes them out to be
A hard area for Russia to win back:
big dilemma for Russia once Ukraine has consolodated its hold, built fortifications etc that Russia will have to bomb, and destroy Russian homes instead of Ukrainian homes to win the territory back
puts future fighting in the area on the Russian rather than the Ukrainian side of the border
Practice for a counteroffensive:
gives Ukraine practice in moving fast in undefended Russian territory in preparation for counteroffensives in occupied Ukraine
occupied Ukraine likewise is likely weakly defended behind the front line so fast advances are still possible there too if Ukraine can get through the front line quickly enough
Ukraine can NEVER liberate the occupied areas street by street like Russia does, it HAS to win by deceit, misdirection, cutting off supplies, and fast advances in surprising places as in 2022.
The map is the Institute for Study of War map for 11th August
Interactive map here, but it changes every day, this is where the background image comes from: Interactive Map: Russia's Invasion of Ukraine
Details for 11th August: Institute for the Study of War
WAR COULD END QUICKLY IF RUSSIA LOSES KHERSON OBLAST - AS CRIMEA WOULD BE VERY VULNERABLE AND PUTIN MIGHT BE FAR MORE INCLINED TO TALK ABOUT PEACE - SO UKRAINE CAN WIN
If Russia does lose Kherson oblast, this could end the war very quickly - Putin’s thoughts would likely swiftly turn to peace negotiations once he can no longer supply Crimea by sea or by land.
This could end the war very quickly - Putin’s thoughts would likely swiftly turn to peace negotiations once he can no longer supply Crimea by sea or by land.
In 2022, Ukraine telegraphed to the world that it would Liberate Kherson city. It then liberated Kharkiv oblast at the far end of the long front line. Then when Russia sent reinforcements to protected Luhansk it was a bait and switch - Ukraine then liberated part of Kherson oblast. Russia could no longer supply Kherson city because Ukraine had fire control of the Antonovksy bridge and pontoons so they evacuated Kherson city once the soldiers there had run out of shells and Ukraine took it without a fight.
Military historians will be studying that strategy for centuries to come. This seems likely to be another classic Ukrainian subterfuge on similar lines.
They are attracting Russia to Kursk oblast even further way and all the time telegraphing to Russia and to the world that their real plan is to attack in Kinburn spit, the opposite end of the line. So what does Putin do? He ignores the problem for 3 weeks and pushes forwards n Donbase km by km. Finally after 3 weeks he takes the bait and launches a counteroffensive in Kursk which is taking away soldiers from most of the front line EXCEPT Donbas.
Ukraine is clearly setting up for a counteroffensive in the south - this is called shaping operations, which Ukraine is so good at. It’s shaping the battlefield to be ready for a counteroffensive in the south.
If Russia does lose Kherson oblast, this could end the war very quickly - Putin’s thoughts would likely swiftly turn to peace negotiations once he can no longer supply Crimea by sea or by land.
So yes. Ukraine CAN win. But not by bashing back street by street like Russia does. By surprise, misdirection, cutting through supplies, and rapid advances.
SO HOW WILL PUTIN REACT - IF PUTIN LOSES HE REACHES FOR PEACE NEGOTIATIONS
Putin started on serious peace negotiations with Ukraine for the first time and so far last time in the war when he realized he was about to lose the battle of Kyiv, and continued the negotiations through those 4 days of the collapse of his forces. He stopped negotiations more or less at the end of that period of rapid advance, once his army was able to stabilize again in the remaining part of Ukraine.
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Text on graphic: Area lost by Russia in battle of Kyiv in 7 days, 126,404 square kilometers = 48,805 square miles Between area of Pennsylvannia and Mississippi Between area of Bulgaria and Greece. Putin often backs down when he faces a superior and determined opponent. Ukraine may not need to fight for every inch. If it is clear that Ukraine will not stop - Putin might remove his army - and still convince Russians (and perhaps others) that he "won".
I did that map soon after Putin’s biggest setback in 2022.
Putin ended the negotiations with their latest draft of the treaty on April 15, by putting an impossible requirement on Ukraine. The negotiators had a peace treaty almost in a form for Ukraine to sign. In it Ukraine agreed on many concessions including a commitment to stay neutral and not join NATO though it could join the EU.
But to their dismay they saw that the Russians added an extra condition to an important clause saying that Ukraine could get support from any of its allies if Russia invaded it again.
The Russian negotiators added that Russia itself had to agree, before Ukraine could ask its allies for military support.
This nonsense clause ended any possibility of further negotiation. It basically signalled that Putin was no longer interested in peace.
Details here . Ukraine-Russia Peace Is as Elusive as Ever. But in 2022 They Were Talking.
We can expect a similar thing if Ukraine starts to win again.
For as long as Ukraine is winning, or has potential for battlefield success, Putin will be interested in peace negotiations. If the Russian side stabilizes again, peace negotiations likely stop.
So Ukraine needs a victory plan that Putin can see clearly will let it push Russia right out of Ukraine. That’s the only way to achieve a possibility of genuine peace negotiations.
I hope you can see now why Ukraine and its allies see the only possibility of peace here is to convince Putin that Ukraine is going to win this war. Which they can do as Russia’s situation is far more fragile than it seems.
That is especially so, since Ukraine’s allies are still holding back on what they supply to Ukraine in many ways, with a lot more aid to come (e.g. F-16s, more air defences, more and better missiles etc) and Ukraine itself is rapidly increasing its own capabilities especially for drones, cruise missiles, ballistic missiles and recruiting more soldiers.
For more on this see my
GENERAL PETREAUS: UKRAINE NEEDS TO ACCUMULATE BATTLEFIELD SUCCESSES TO CHANGE THE DYNAMICS FOR MEANINGFUL NEGOTIATIONS
General Petraeus is a US retired four star general and one of the best informed people on the topic. He was director of the CIA and led American and international forces in Afghanistan and Iraq. He has been over to Ukraine four times in the last 18 months. He is speaking from Kyiv in this interview.
Summary of what General Petraeus said in bullet points:
General Petraeus says, first that Putin is bluffing:
Yes, Putin is bluffing.
His nukes threat is also a bluff - his biggest ally and partner China / president Xi said “don’t even think about that” and so did Prime Minister Modi of India, an important customer for crude oil etc
On what Putin can do by way of retaliation (nothing essentially)
Putin can’t do anything more conventionally than he is doing already
This is NOT a NATO decision it’s unilateral decisions by the US, UK and France and we do things all the time that are not to do with NATO
Putin will NOT attack NATO. His hands are more than full with Ukraine. He pulled forces out of Eastern Russia, Africa, and Syria to fight in Ukraine.
Putin doesn’t want to take on another fight
On prospects for peace - that the US needs to do everything it can to enable Ukraine to accumulate more battlefield successes to change the dynamics so that genuine peace negotiations can start.
This improves the prospect for peace
Right now the dynamics of the war are not going to encourage Putin to negotiate and Ukraine are not keen to negotiate either
The US needs to do everything it possibly can to help Ukraine to accumulate battlefield successes, so that the dynamics change sufficiently for meaningful negotiations
I go into details here:
A TRUE VICTORY PLAN HAS TO HAVE A TOP SECRET MILITARY COMPONENT THAT ZELENSKY WOULDN’T SHARE WIDELY - AND HE ONLY SAYS HE SHARED DETAILS OF IT WITH BIDEN - NOT EVEN WITH TRUMP OR HARRIS
I think a true victory plan HAS to have a top secret military element only a few know. There is no way that the Kursk oblast incursion is the last surprise in the entire war from Ukraine which has been behind numerous surprises so far.
Zelensky: "We took the plan with details and we gave this plan to Biden. We shared some ideas about it with Kamala and with Donald".
. YouTube
When even Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have only seen some ideas from the plan we can be pretty sure that most people will similarly only know some ideas.
For more on this see my
There is no way Ukraine can win by just exhausting the Russians by retreating slowly in Donbas - that's a feint. The real attack has to come elsewhere.
So in short we conclude that
Putin will not be interested in peace negotiations unless Ukraine starts to have major battlefield successes, far more so than Kursk oblast
Ukraine is NOT going to try to win by attacking where Russia is strongest as they can NEVER win by using Russian tactics of losing vast numbers of tanks and soldiers and demolishing cities street by street as they go.
So we are left with an inescapable conclusion. There is only one thing that could explain Zelensky’s confidence that Ukraine can win.
They are sure to do a surprise counteroffensive where they find a weak point in Russia's front line, it is the only way they can win.
The obvious weak points which they keep telegraphing to Russia are in Kherson oblast and in Zaporizhzhia oblast. But Ukraine show an extraordinary level of innovation in their strategy planning so it is not possible to predict accurately what they will really do.
I think the clearest illustration of Russia’s weakness is the incursion into Kursk oblast. Russia didn't have any reserves to deploy there to stop the Ukrainians.
It is also very clear that Ukraine got Russia by surprise from the condition of Sudzha as we saw, with tthe houses, businesses etc intact. Ukraine is still able to surprise Russia and that is the only way a victory plan is possible: more surprises like Kursk oblast.
From Kursk oblast it is also clear that Russia has NO RESERVES. It definitely should do with a front line well over 1000 km long.
So it is now very clear that if Ukraine was to get through that front line somewhere, that Russia can't have any plans to reinforce it - if they can't defend Kursk oblast without dithering about it for 3 weeks first, as Putin did with Kursk oblast, they definitely can't defend against a surprise incursion that breaks through its front line say in Kherson oblast.
Surely any genuine victory plan has to build on this experience in Kursk, and find a way to surprise Russia again somewhere else along its very long front line.
I talk about some of the ways Ukraine was able to get an advantage in Kursk oblast here, especially its drone innovations:
SEE ALSO
Despite all his bluff and bluster he is very risk averse as the Institute for the Study of War so often puts it.
TWEET “Putin is a very risk averse individual. He is extremely calculated, and he oftentimes really prefers not to make urgent, rash political decisions that would specifically impact the health of his regime,” said ISW’s Russia deputy team lead @ KatStepanenko
Putin is "A VERY RISK AVERSE INDIVIDUAL" (ISW).
He planned to take Hostomel airport on day 1. Land tanks and take over Kyiv government next day. Take over Ukraine in 2 weeks. Would NEVER HAVE DONE THIS if he thought his plan could fail. Had no plan B.
Debris from destroyed Russian helicopter
Putin thought he had a risk free plan to take Kyiv in 2 days and the rest of Ukraine in 2 weeks.
He was so sure of this plan devised by spies he kept it secret from his generals and had “no plan B”
Battle for Hostomel airport - only 200 soldiers but they were able to make the airport impossible for plans to land on and destroy many helicopters as they tried to land.
Photo of the damaged airport from: Occupiers fail to secure their foothold in the attack on Kyiv
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