These are the questions I answered:
"he doesn't care about the law/constitution."
“he'll do what it takes to bend the rules"
"his cabinet is all on his side."
"we didn't think he'd overturn RVW, either."
For background see my:
TEXT ON GRAPHIC:
Almost all of Project 2025 and of Trump's Agenda 47 is an illegal fantasy which can never be done.
This is the only part that's possible - the small part in the Republican platform.
But most of this needs a far right majority in the house and a fillibusterproof far right majority in the Senate to pass so will never happen either.
You can also try my:
SHORT DEBUNK. Impossibility of Project 2025 and Trump's Agenda 47 - short summary
The law / constitution cares about Trump
1. Yes he doesn't care about the law/constitution. But the law/constitution cares about him.
Every officer in the army AND in the civil service swears an oath to uphold the US Constitution also every Judge and Justice.
He will soon find that he can't do these things.
This may help
Supreme Court is NOT on his side
The Supreme Court is NOT on his side. The Jan 06 trial would still be going ahead if he hadn't got elected.
Trump has the worst record of any president at least sine 1937 with the Supreme Court. The only president to lose more than half his cases.
This may help:
Yes he breaks rules - but he now has 20+ rule breaking Freedom Caucus MAGA extremist rebels in the House - likely to cause many problems
Oh on rule breaking - yes he breaks the accepted way of doing things.
He now has 20+ Freedom Caucus MAGA extremist rebels in Congress.
Like 20+ wannabe Trumps all with different ideas that will make it hard to impossible to pass legislation without help from democrats.
Eccentric decision on Roe v. Wade is because Republican presidents chose justices for past decisions on the topic - NOT in any way MAGA - for instance majority is likely still 5:4 or 6:3 pro-trans favorable
On Roe v. Wade the Justices didn't lie. They said they would take reliance into account. I go into that in my Roe debunk. This is important because though the reasoning seems very strange to non lawyers it is NOT political.
The reason they decided in this eccentric way on Roe is because Republican presidents for many years chose justices specifically for past records on topics related to Roe.
It is NOT because of MAGA loyalty and their rulings on other things will NOT be aligned with MAGA
For instance the Supreme Court is likely majority either 5:4 or 6:3 trans favorable in their understanding of the word “sex” in legislation.
His most eccentric cabinet choices may well not go through - and if any do it’s like putting a trapeze artist in charge of Microsoft - loyal but ineffective
It's not at all clear that his eccentric choice of cabinet will get through.
Also my
If they do - they will be loyal but ineffective. A bit like putting a trapese artist in charge of Microsoft. They will be out of their depth and not achieve much. Likely resign or be fired soon.
Or it is like someone promises to make you a soufflee who has never so much as boiled an egg.
- and Musk's unofficial advisory post has no power - likely clashes with Trump soon
Mike Ryan’s tips on talking to people who don’t listen, contradict and argue
Then, it's about listening to them and making it a dialogue. Helping to connect them to good reliable sources, and to help them to challenge their assumptions.
And then not try to win the argument but just leave the door open :).
It's about helping to connect them to good information.
I focus on helping people who are scared and want help. It sounds like your friend does, may feel it is hopeless but wants to be helped.
If that's the situation then that's half way there.
And then it's over to them. I find Dr Mike Ryan's advice here very useful:
SECTION: How to talk to people who don’t listen, contradict, and argue ... - Mike Ryan of the WHO
Likely to be a chaotic ineffective revolving door presidency like the first one and get little done
The president is a servant of the people, he just carries out the laws enacted by Congress, and all subject to the US constitution, interpreted by the Judiciary. Congress has authority over what a president can do. He is very limited without it.
We are 2 months away from Trump's inauguration and from the way it's shaping up it seems likely to be an ineffectual presidency with Trump sure to fall out with Elon Musk probably early on, and likely with some of his other picks, with some at least of them rejected, with him surrounded by advisors who don't know what they are doing with no previous experience of jobs anything like what they are supposed to do - a bit like gardeners who don't even know you are supposed to water plants. Or someone who got a job teaching Japanese who doesn't speak a word of the language.
It's like putting a trapeze artist in charge of Microsoft.
They are just going to run into one problem after another and he likely fires many of them or they retire just as in his first administration though for different reasons.
Well that's my prediction 🙂. I am NOT ABLE TO SEE THE FUTURE and am just an ordinary flawed human.
But from his picks it doesn't seem like it's shaping up to be a very competent government. And the tiny House margin will make it hard to pass any laws and Rick Scott losing in the leadership contest is an early indication that the Senate won't do as they are told.
Also even if there were lots of problems to come what is the use in much worry?
Dalai Lama : TRANSCRIPT "When we face some problem, if there is a way to work on it, then make effort. If the situation is such that there is no way to overcome it, then there is no use in much worry." [Dalai Lama's comment on the quote] A very realistic and very scientific way of thinking.
He goes on to talk about how he applied this advice to his exile from Tibet and his interactions with China and the Chinese people.
Those were awful times for the Tibetans, their way of life destroyed by invading Chinese. But "There is no use in much worry"
1:17:40 into this video (181K views · 4.4K comments | Compassion and Love | His Holiness the Dalai Lama will give a talk on Compassion and Love followed by a question and answer session online from his residence in Dharamsala,... | By Dalai Lama | Facebook):
When you can do something then make effort
If the situation is such that there is no way to overcome it, there is no use in much worry
It is a very practical way of dealing with things.
You can simplify your life a lot by focusing on things you can do something about.
Also looking for kindness in the world.
As the Dalai Lama put it:
Dalai Lama : "love and compassion predominate in the world. And this is why unpleasant events are news, compassionate activities are so much part of daily life that they are taken for granted and, therefore, largely ignored.."
Compassion and the Individual | The 14th Dalai Lama (Compassion and the Individual | The 14th Dalai Lama (The Office of His Holiness The Dalai Lama | The 14th Dalai Lama))
Every time you hear of something horrible in the news your mind focuses on it. But when you hear of someone being kind - you probably wouldn't bother share it, don't mention it to anyone, such stories sink down in the news and are hardly noticed.
Not necessarily to go around telling others to do that but it' can be a useful way to lead your life if you find it useful :).
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I do many more fact checks and debunks on our facebook group than I could ever write up as blog posts. They are shorter and less polished but there is a good chance you may find a short debunk for some recent concern.
See Latest short debunks for new short debunks
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Then on the Doomsday Debunked wiki, see my Short Debunks page which is a single page of all the earlier short debunks in one page.
I do the short debunks more often but they are less polished - they are copies of my longer replies to scared people in the Facebook group
Thank you Robert. Sometimes it feels like people just want to doom and no matter how you explain it doesn't calm them down. (And this is coming from someone who suffers from anxiety.)
I just don't get how some people can be so hopeless. It can't be good for their mental health.