Trump's warning wasn't about a US attack - was about Israel attacking Gaza again - UPDATE: averted - also, if US does ever buy Gaza Strip - they take on occupier's responsibility for health of Gazans
All that is happening is that Hamas has asked Israel to keep to their side of the bargain with the ceasefire and Trump intervened with a typical exaggerated and dumb remark that he knows nobody involved can take seriously.
Update - the situation is resolved now. See: Update: Ceasefire is back on course - after resolving an issue with tents and mobile homes
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Trump is just talking about Israel resuming the bombing. No way the US gets invovled. He claims the bombing will resume if Hamas don't return all the hostages by Saturday.
Here is how the BBC reports it:
President Trump says Israel should cancel the ceasefire deal and let all hell break out in Gaza if the remaining hostages aren't released by midday on Saturday.
It comes after Hamas announced a delay to releasing the next group of Israeli hostages under further notice.
…
Trump: Well I would say this … that’s Israel's decision but as far as I'm concerned if all of the hostages aren't returned by Saturday at 12:00 .. not in drips and drabs not two and one and three and four and two … all hell is going to break out … I'm speaking for myself Israel can override it but from myself Saturday at 12:00 and if they're not here all hell is going to break
However as he says, that is up to Israel and no way they really do what he suggests.
Trump knows Hamas can't really release all the hostages at once.
So at the end of his answer he adds "it is up to Israel" which adds wiggle room as there is no way Israel would try to get all the hostages released.
Update: Ceasefire is back on course - after resolving an issue with tents and mobile homes
It's been resolved. There will be a great deal of relief both in Gaza Strip and in Israel.
The Times of Israel tend to be very reliable on this particular topic of the hostage negotiations. The Times of Israel says that the dispute is over tents, mobile homes, and heavy machinery to remove rubble which Israel promised they would let in..
It's winter there, and a cold time for the Palestinians in Gaza.
Many tents are going in but not enough. They also promised mobile homes - but those have not been stopped by Israel. It is just because they haven't got there yet. I suppose it is more difficult and slower to transport mobile homes than to transport tents. at least in large numbers.
As for heavy construction equipment then Israel and Egypt are saying conflicting things Israel says they aren't going to go in, Egypt expects them to go in on Thursday.
They could potentially have some dual use for Hamas which may be the hold up.
They also want heavy construction machinery to remove the rubble.
Israel told Hamas through Egypt and Qatar that the deal will continue if they release 3 hostages as previously agreed. So Israel is not demanding that they release all the hostages - that is just empty talk from Trump.
Details:
Trump was just hinting that Israel might start bombing again - and Hamas also said they deliberately did this 5 days before the next hostage release for plenty of time for negotiations
All Trump is hinting at is that Israel might start dropping bombs again which nobody wants except perhaps the far right in Israel.
Trump doesn't get to change the rules in the middle like that and he knows it.
Hamas for their part said they deliberately made their announcement 5 days before the hostages are due to be released to allow time for negotiations They just want Israel to keep to the requirements of the agreement.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/poll-70-of-israelis-support-second-phase-of-hostage-ceasefire-deal/.
The reason it's politically impossible for Hamas to release all the hostages is because they see the hostages as the only way to ensure that Israel keeps to its side of the bargains. That’s why the agreement has Hamas releasing them a few at a time.
Keeping hostages is a war crime. But that is the reality of the situation, that Hamas see these hostages as their only way to prevent the war resuming.
Almost nobody wants to resume the conflict except the Israeli far right
It's possible that the war resumes anyway, but almost nobody wants that except the far right in Israel and it's good news that Hamas did this pause early in the week with lots of time until Sunday to sort it out
70% of the Israeli population support phase 2, complete withdrawal of Israeli from Gaza Strip
8 of the remaining 17 for phase 1 are dead but that leaves 9 still alive. Then there are the phase 2 hostages, 24 living male hostages and 35 bodies.
See: https://www.timesofisrael.com/poll-70-of-israelis-support-second-phase-of-hostage-ceasefire-deal/.
Meanwhile the hostage families are putting a lot of pressure on Netanyahu because they saw how gaunt the last three hostages were who were released and they want the releases to continue to release them while they are still alive.
Then Trump despite his bold words wants peace not war. So he is strong pressure on Netanyahu and on Hamas too to keep to the ceasefire.
This is from Times of Israel which presents the Isreali perspective on this topic:
QUOTE STARTS
After announcing it was postponing the hostage-prisoner exchange slated for Saturday over alleged Israeli violations of the ongoing Gaza truce deal, Hamas indicates that it is open to fulfilling the release on time if Israel ceases its ostensible violations.
“Postponing the release of prisoners is a warning message to the occupation, and to pressure for strict adherence to the terms of the agreement,” says Hamas, referring to the hostages it took on October 7, 2023.
The terror group adds that it intentionally made the announcement five days ahead of the planned release “to give the mediators sufficient opportunity to pressure the occupation to implement its obligations, and to keep the door open to implement the exchange on time if the occupation adheres to its obligations.”
“Hamas has implemented all its obligations accurately and on time,” the terror group says in a statement.
A US general would have to refuse any order by Trump to kill Palestinian civilians in retaliation for Hamas reneging on a ceasefire
So that’s what many people on social media FALSELY saw as a threat by Trump to attack Gaza Strip himself.
That is never going to happen. A US operation would have been far more carefully planned, with far more precise operations with smaller missiles to target Hamas fighters in ways that had minimal risk to civilians.
Biden tried to get Israel to conduct its operations in that way too but with no success. He was able to delay the Israeli attack on Rafah but not able to get them to do a precise operation of the sort a US command would have done.
A US general would also refuse because of the motivation. You are not permitted to deliberately attack civilians in a revenge attack. That would violate many treaties..
But Trump doesn’t mean any of this.
Trump could never use nukes - his generals would refuse even large-scale bombing of civilians in Gaza Strip
Trump is never going to use a nuke. His generals would refuse as it would be a very clear war crime. As I said in the last section, they would refuse even to do the bombings that Israel did but would want to do far more precise operations with smaller missiles to target Hamas fighters.
Also, it would alienate the entire world including many in the US population too.
The scared people I help often worry about world leaders like Trump or like Putin suddenly going completely insane and unable to think coherently There are precautions in place in case this happens but it just never happens it's beyond incredible.
People don't suddenly go mad and they aren't like kids in kindergarten getting angry with each other. It is hard to find any examples of a world leader who has gone mad - and the only ones you can find went mad slowly - e.g. King George III.
If anyone knows of even one world leader who suddenly went insane do let me know.
Anyway there are numerous precautions in place.
This is my blog post about why Israel will never use a nuke in Gaza Strip.
It's even more so for the US.
Think about how much criticism the bombing got. Now imagine what it would be like with nukes. Almost nobody in the entire world would even be able to support US or Israel. It's not going ot happen.
And this is about how Trump can't order a nuclear attack on civilians - any general would have to refuse such an illegal order.
Wars in the Middle East stay there - and recent changes in Lebanon and Syria move it in the direction of more peace and stabiliity
Wars in the MIddle East stay there and nobody there even has world war fighting capabilities.
TEXT ON GRAPHIC: Wars in the Middle East always STAY IN THE MIDDLE EAST
Example: 1991: Gulf war to liberate Kuwait after invasion by Iraq.
UK’s biggest foreign war since WW2. ALL THESE COUNTRIES fought Iraq - NEVER COULD BE A WORLD WAR.
Russia and China neutral.
Most fighting here: (arrow to Kuwait).
UK sent 35,000 soldiers and 13,000 vehicles.
Numbers of soldiers and vehicles from here: Gulf War | National Army Museum
Map of combatants from here: File:Coalition of the Gulf War vs Iraq.svg - Wikimedia Commons
Map of Iraq and Kuwait from here: Gulf War | National Army Museum
Background oil painting: British infantry vehicles advancing, Iraq, 1991 Oil on board by Captain Jonathan Wade, Royal Highland Fusiliers, 1992.
Imperial war museum IWM Non-Commercial Licence
It's also moved a lot in the direction of peace and stability with HTS overthrowing Assad in Syria and Lebanon moving in the direction of removing weapons from Hezbollah so that only the Lebanese military has access to them. Whether it succeeds at that or not Hezbollah's influence is greatly reduced in Lebanese politics.
Russia has left Syria and has no presence in the MIddle East any more except possibly a few in Libya. But Russia was never going to fight Israel - its close with Iran but also with Israel too. Putin is very close to rabbis in Russia. Especially the Russian chief rabbi Berel Lazar
He has had close connections with Jews since his childhood when his parents got his Jewish neighbours to baby sit for him. "Putin's Surprising Jewish Connection"
So there is nobody the US could fight a world war with in the Middle East.
If you look at it more carefully, Russia is not able to fight a world war either and nobody would use nukes.
Please take a look at my:
Why we do NOT risk a world war from: Ukraine, the Middle East, China, North Korea, or anywhere else in the world - next to impossible - and longer term are headed for a future without any war
For a first overview look at the graphics, read the bullet points summary, and read the section titles in the contents list - then dive into more detail in any section of interest. If you are on the laptop you can also navigate to any section by clicking on the column of horizontal dashes you see to the left of this page.
Israel’s legally eccentric interpretation of international law not shared by any other country - that the Palestinians are landless and so are not occupied - US can’t use this reasoning
Israeli lawyers reason that the Palestinians are stateless because Palestine was never an internationally recognized country in their view and their legal reasoning that this means they are not an occupying power and so don't have the responsiblity of an occupier to provide for humanitarian assistance to Palestinians in Gaza Strip.
This was their legal basis for the blockade of Gaza Strip - during the conflict, and before it also.
Of course an occupier could keep out weapons and can also blockade any military establishment. But the blockade of food, water, electricity, medicine would be very illegal for an occupier - any measures like that would have to be targeted specifically to Hamas and not just to the whole population of Gaza Strip.
Israel get around that by saying the Palestinians are stateless and they are not an occupier.
If the US can and does buy Gaza Strip - it will have all the responsibilities of an occupying power - including providing food water, electricity, and medical care to the Palestinians - and could never blockade Gaza strip
As for whether the US can buy Gaza Strip, it's not very clear what can happen there, perhaps it can if Israel as occupier voluntarily transfers Gaza Strip to America . But what is very clear is that if that happened, the US becomes the occupying power under international law.
At least the US would become an occupying power in the eyes of every country except Israel. The US doesn’t agree with this Israelie reasoning that the Palestinians are stateless people without any rights to the land in Gaza Strip.
So the US would see itself as an occupying power if it bought Gaza Strip.
The US then has all the responsibilities to the civilians of Gaza strip of an occupying power.
It wouldn’t be able to blockade Gaza Strip in the future like Israel did during the conflict, because only Israel’s own eccentric interpretation of the international law makes it legal in its own view for it to blockade Gaza Strip.
If the US was ever in the future to blockade Gaza Strip and restrict access of food or aid it’s own lawyers would say this is illegal .
Indeed they would agree that as an occupying power the US not only has an obligation to allow others to bring the aid in, it also has an obligation to provide the aid itself. Food, medical care and so on - the health and welfare of the Palestinians then becomes the responsibility of the US as the occupying power.
It would do its best not to let it get to any terrorists if Hamas still had a presence but it couldn’t use the presence of some terrorists in Gaza Strip to block humanitarian aid to the entire population.
It is also very illegal for an occupying power to forcefully evict a population from the territory it occupies - that is the war crime of ethnic cleansing.
So if the US did take over control of Gaza Strip it takes on a major ongoing future responsibility to Palestinians.
This seems to go in the opposite direction of Trump's promise to the American People of "America first" and withdrawing from control of places outside of the USA.
For that reason many in is own party are opposed to this idea.
Gaza strip wasn’t a refugee camp before the conflict - it was a normal modern country except that few people there were ever permitted to leave the strip
Many people think of Gaza Strip as if it was some kind of a refugee camp before the war. Not at all. This short video clip may help you understand why its people will want to rebuild the strip themselves not depend on a foreign country to rebuild it for them:
So this reframing of Trump's idea also seems implausible but it is more positive.
No, it had modern houses, a modern city, people with their cars, jobs, architects, doctors, shops, hospitals, gardens, parks. A normal modern country except that few people there were ever permitted to leave the strip.
It also has a bidoversity site of international importance in its delta which they were in the process of turning the ocuntry's first nature reserve.
Now almost all of that is flattened and turned into rubble. But that doesn't mean they are okay with foreigners rebuilding everything according to its own ideas of what it thinks they would like.
See my:
BLOG: The little known beauty of Gaza, which had just started its first nature reserve in Wadi Gaza last year — given time and resources they can rebuild READ HERE: https://robertinventor.substack.com/p/the-little-known-beauty-of-gaza-which
Trump can’t forcefully evict Palestinians from Gaza Strip even temporarily - only move them if they want to go themselves - which few would do
Trump has moved back and forth on his idea of moving the Palestinians out of Gaza Strip. But it is never going to happen, it’s very illegal under all interpretations of international law.
It would be a war crime and anyone who obeyed his orders to try to do it would also be a war criminal and so any US general would refuse such an order. It is extremely and overtly illegal back to the 4th Geneva convention from 1949:
QUOTE Individual or mass forcible transfers, as well as deportations of protected persons from occupied territory to the territory of the Occupying Power or to that of any other country, occupied or not, are prohibited, regardless of their motive. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c9w5q8qn59yo
So he can't do it. The BBC article suggests he may be doing what Israelis call "giving a goat" of saying something very extreme so he can then drop back from it to a solution that works.
BBC article: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c9w5q8qn59yo
"It is utterly unrealistic, and it reflects a total lack of understanding of the historical process of where these Palestinians come from, what is their collective identity," former Israeli foreign minister Shlomo Ben-Ami told NPR. " It's somebody that came from the outer space and tries to impose a solution which is, you know, detached from a context."
Israeli observers have suggested Trump could be using a negotiating tactic known in Israel as "putting in a goat" — laying down a demand for the purpose of removing it later and appearing to have granted a concession.
"This man is an actor in a global theater, and this has been his tactics, playing big, drawing the world's attention to what he says, getting his rivals out of balance, and eventually something will happen that goes his way," Ben-Ami said. "Maybe this is a tactical sort of move that tries to say a big thing in order to eventually get a more modest solution."
https://www.npr.org/2025/02/05/nx-s1-5287576/trump-gaza-takeover
According to his press secretary he was talking about a temporary relocation.
The White House appears to move away from US President Donald Trump’s assertion yesterday that he wants to permanently remove Palestinians outside of Gaza, with Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt stressing that Washington’s goal is to only “temporarily” remove Palestinians.
Trump “has made it very clear… that he expects our partners in the region — particularly Egypt and Jordan — to accept Palestinian refugees temporarily so that we can rebuild their homes,” Leavitt says during a press conference.
Pressed to clarify whether the White House was shifting away from Trump’s talk of “permanent” to “temporary” relocation, Leavitt responds: “The president has made it clear that they need to be temporarily relocated out of Gaza for the rebuilding… as it’s a demolition site right now, it’s not a livable place for any human being.”
This stops it from being a proposal for ethnic cleansing though it would need the Palestinians and their neighbours to agree which is rather unlikely. The Palestainians tend to be very wary of temporary arrangements to leave an area concerned that once they leave they may never be let back again. Also why can't they rebuild their own homes? Not many people would want another country to rebuild all their homes for them.
The Palestinians are especially sensitive to anything even slightly resembling it because they were displaced from their own homes and lands during the Nakba of 1948 .
QUOTE STARTS
The Nakba, which means “catastrophe” in Arabic, refers to the mass displacement and dispossession of Palestinians during the 1948 Arab-Israeli war. Before the Nakba, Palestine was a multi-ethnic and multi-cultural society. However, the conflict between Arabs and Jews intensified in the 1930s with the increase of Jewish immigration, driven by persecution in Europe, and with the Zionist movement aiming to establish a Jewish state in Palestine.
In November 1947, the UN General Assembly passed a resolution partitioning Palestine into two states, one Jewish and one Arab, with Jerusalem under a UN administration. The Arab world rejected the plan, arguing that it was unfair and violated the UN Charter. Jewish militias launched attacks against Palestinian villages, forcing thousands to flee. The situation escalated into a full-blown war in 1948, with the end of the British Mandate and the departure of British forces, the declaration of independence of the State of Israel and the entry of neighbouring Arab armies. The newly established Israeli forces launched a major offensive. The result of the war was the permanent displacement of more than half of the Palestinian population.
As early as December 1948, the UN General Assembly called for refugee return, property restitution and compensation (resolution 194 (II)). However, 75 years later, despite countless UN resolutions, the rights of the Palestinians continue to be denied. According to the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA) more than 5 million Palestine refugees are scattered throughout the Middle East. Today, Palestinians continue to be dispossessed and displaced by Israeli settlements, evictions, land confiscation and home demolitions.
There is no possibility of a world war from Hamas or anything that happens in the Middle East. But this would be extremely illegal and there is no way that Trump himself as just one person can evict them.
Anyone who obeyed such an order would be a war criminal and would for sure have an arrest warrant under the international criminal court against them as would Trump himself if he actually ordered it rather than just talk about it. But no-one would obey such an order; they would know it is illegal.
Putin can order his generals to commit war crimes because the courts in Russia are under his control. But the US has an independent judiciary and the proper rule of law and his generals swear an oath to follow the US constitution and the US has ratified many international treaties that it upholds and they make this impossible.
Middle East policy analyst and former Middle East advisor at the Pentagon Jasmine El-Gamal had many insights to share in an interview on the BBC.
TRANSCRIPT STARTS
Q. Jasmine, always good to have your thoughts And firstly I just wanted to get you reaction as you heard the details of that press conference last night when we see the upending of decades of US policy towards the Middle East and also a policy that now flies in the face of International Law.
What was your reaction?
A. Thankyou so muchM and there is so much to parse here and so much to get into. But let me just start out by saying that this is not US policy yet.
So this was a press conference. It was clearly a very disorganized stream of thought from President Trump. He has said before he wants Egypt and Jordan to take in Palestinians from Gaza. Egypt and Jordan have refused unequivocally as well as the other Arab states as well. They put out a statement. Saudi Arabia re-iterated that yesterday at 4.30 in the morning Saudi Arabia time. So that is how strongly Arab states feel about this.
But there are other things that president Trump said that he hasn't said before that just seemed completely outlandish and disorganized and off the cuff. Like "I envisioned the world's people living in Gaza". And then the next minute saying "The US will take over Gaza". This was a very chaotic press conference.
I think it is unbearably cruel for President Trump to throw out these half-baked ideas. Regardless of how serious or unserious they are because of the impact they have had on people who are really affected by that has been immense. I'm sure you've seen panic and complete chaos. People wondering if this is true, if this is going to happen. So just that alone was cruel.
The other thing is that what he is talking about in terms of forcing people to leave when they don't want to is ethnic cleansing and that is against international law and is not going to happen.
I think it's also really important to look at facts on the ground and realize that physically moving a large number of people from Gaza into wherever it may be is not going to happen without approval and acquiescence and help and support from the Arab states, both physically, financially and otherwise. Which again is not going to happen.
So I just want to lay that out there because I know a lot of people are panicking about what they said.
Q. There is a lot of panic Jasmine. But if we can assume then that there was a chaotic press conference and he was just throwing ideas out, one Israeli said to me he's just shaking the tree, and he's going to put all this out there and maybe row back because he's looking for some compromise, what is it that you think that Donald Trump ultimately wants to settle on as a Middle East policy and as he gets to that place, how much damage is he doing in terms of the relationship of the US has with some of its Middle East partners and allies?
A. I think that's such an excellent question. Because we know from what he said before, we know from what he's campaigned on, that he wants the US to get out of the Middle East. He doesn't want to enter into another war in the Middle East.
You can see by the people who surround him when it comes to the topic of Iran for example that he's no longer surrounded by Iran hawks, who favour military action with Iran, people like Brian Hook and John Bolton who favoured maximum pressure and a more militaristic view point.
We know that he's extremely interested in a normalization deal with Saudi Arabia, a broader peace deal that includes not just Israel Palestine but other countries in the region.
And we know that one of the first things he did before he even came into office was to put that pressure on Prime Minister Netanyahu to sign a ceasefire deal.
His first international call as president this time around was to Saudi Arabia's crown prince M. B.S [Mohammed bin Salman]. And when his special envoy Steve Whitcox went to the Middle East to monitor the ceasefire, he went to Israel and Gaza, but he went to Saudi Arabia first, to brief the Saudi crown prince.
So I think it's important to keep all these things in perspective. But I absolutely think that the point that you made is crucial and an excellent point, which is that what damage is he doing in the meantime?
Q. And Jasmine, a final thought on something which shouldn't go under the radar but is a bit today is the comments he made about the occupied West Bank when he did say he's considering making an announcement in the next few weeks of endorsing the the idea that Israel will have sovereignty there. That was almost a more considered statemetn from him that he said he's going ot make it in a few weeks. But how would that also massively change the dynamic.
A. Again, it's a cruel statement to make. I think he thinks he's still on the Apprentice where he says tune in next week to find out what's going to happen. This is not the way you conduct diplomacy.
But it does at least tell us that he's thinking about what to do as regards the West Bank.
I come back to the point about the Arab states, the leverage that they have, whether they are willing to use it, and that deal with Saudi Arabia which is not going to happen without a Palestinian state and commitment to a Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza.
Q. And Jasmine do you think that Egypt and Jordan need to be worried right now about the kind of leverage Donald Trump has over them with things like miltiary aid and other aide? He said you've got to take in these Palestinians and if you don't, the stick that I've got.
A. Most people tend to look at it that way, but if you just flip that around, Egypt and Jordan are two countries that have long-standing peace treaties with Israel. They have inteligence cooperation, security cooperation, you'll remember that Jordanian air defences shot down Iranian missiles that were making their way to Israel.
Now think about what would happen if Egypt and Jordan were completely destabilized. You cut off military assistance, you tell them to take in Palestinians, you completely destabilize those two countries. Is that in the US interests? Is that in the Israeli interest? The answer is a hard no.
So I also would caution people from looking at it from just that one perspective of what the US can do to Egypt and Jordan. It's also what Egypt and Jordan provide in terms of stability in the region which is directly beneficial to US and Israeli interests.
See also
Why we do NOT risk a world war from: Ukraine, the Middle East, China, North Korea, or anywhere else in the world - next to impossible - and longer term are headed for a future without any war
For a first overview look at the graphics, read the bullet points summary, and read the section titles in the contents list - then dive into more detail in any section of interest. If you are on the laptop you can also navigate to any section by clicking on the column of horizontal dashes you see to the left of this page.
Contents
Update: Ceasefire is back on course - after resolving an issue with tents and mobile homes
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TIPS FOR DEALING WITH DOOMSDAY FEARS
If suicidal or helping someone suicidal see my:
BLOG: Supporting someone who is suicidal
If you have got scared by any of this, health professionals can help. Many of those affected do get help and find it makes a big difference.
They can’t do fact checking, don’t expect that of them. But they can do a huge amount to help with the panic, anxiety, maladaptive responses to fear and so on.
Also do remember that therapy is not like physical medicine. The only way a therapist can diagnose or indeed treat you is by talking to you and listening to you. If this dialogue isn’t working for whatever reason do remember you can always ask to change to another therapist and it doesn’t reflect badly on your current therapist to do this.
Also check out my Seven tips for dealing with doomsday fears based on things that help those scared, including a section about ways that health professionals can help you.
I know that sadly many of the people we help can’t access therapy for one reason or another - usually long waiting lists or the costs.
There is much you can do to help yourself. As well as those seven tips, see my:
BLOG: Breathe in and out slowly and deeply and other ways to calm a panic attack
BLOG: Tips from CBT
— might help some of you to deal with doomsday anxieties
You are being proven wrong on a lot of things. Congress is doing nothing to stop him. He is ready to drop support for Ukraine. I know you want to help people but Pink coloring the truth won't help in the long term. American democracy IS dying and if americans hope to save it they have to react.