Why Russia will do nothing in response to Ukraine hitting targets in Russia in self defense - not backed into a corner - legitimate for Ukraine to target Russian bombers that attack them every day
Ukraine has been hitting many targets in Russia, with its own weapons almost since the war started. The 25th February 2022 was the first strike against a target in Russia by Ukrainian weapons, it hit Milerevo air base just outside Luhansk oblast in Rostov oblast.
. Attacks in Russia during the Russian invasion of Ukraine - Wikipedia
Ukraine has used US weapons against targets in Russia since 4th June, earliest confirmed strike against a military target in Belgorod city with HiMARS.
QUOTE According to reports, Ukrainian forces used the Himars (High Mobility Artillery Rocket System) to fire precision-guided rockets at a target in the city of Belgorod.
. US-supplied Himars launched against targets inside Russian border for first time
All this is legitimate self defence and won't cause any problems. As I explained in my previous debunk:
Ukraine is ALREADY hitting targets in Russia and THIS IS PERMITTED IN A DEFENSIVE WAR. If a country has bombers that take off every day to attack your cities with one ton glide bombs powerful enough to destroy an apartment block in one go - it is NOT ESCALATORY TO HIT THOSE BOMBERS BEFORE THEY TAKE OFF. It is LEGITIMATE SELF DEFENCE.
Also there is no way Russia attacks NATO. It really is very very weak. Ukraine is able to hit targets in Russia over 1000 km from its front line using improvised bombs in converted civilian hobbyist microlights.
It is a country that is so short on air defences because it sent most of them into Ukraine, that it can't defend itself even from slow-moving microlights.
It will just mean that Russia will have to move all its fighter jets and bombers further away to at least 300 km from the Ukrainian front line.
These are legitimate targets in international law and Russia will do absolutely nothing, just as it does nothing in response to the many Ukrainian attacks on these same targets, and it did nothing about the US permission to hit targets in Russia in June or the UK or French permission to hit targets anywhere in Russia. Or when Ukraine used the UK stormshadow to hit the Black Sea headquarters in Sevastopol, or to destroy a deisel submarine in dry dock in Sevastopol etc etc.
Putin knows very well that none of this is any threat to the Russian Federation.
This is a big war for Ukraine. But it is a small war for Russia. I know it is using everything and everyone it can spare in its entire army and defence industrial base to fight it and having to buy missiles from Iran and North Korea to keep going - but for ordinary Russians it is a small distant war.
Text on graphic:
Orange: Russian border with NATO.
Gray: Russian Federation boundary
Red arrow: Ukraine war.
For ordinary Russians the Ukraine war is a distant “special operation”
Russia have no stomach for large-scale mobilization
NOT all-out war economy
NOT all-out war levels of mobilization.
Military as % GDP: compare UK (WW2) > 50%, Ukraine 22.1%, Russia 9%, US 3%, UK 2%
Mobilization: compare UK (WW2) 12%, Ukraine 2.1%, Russia 0.9%
Map from: . Setting the record straight De-bunking Russian disinformation on NATO
It may help to compare with the war economy in the UK in world war II
Text on graphic: Russia’s military spending at 9% of GDP is not really an all-out war economy.
WW2 (UK) over 50%
Ukraine at 22.1% is closer to all-out war economy.
Ukraine 22.1% Russia 9%. US 3%. UK 2%.
Chart from: Defence Spending since 1900
Figures for % of GDP and mobilization from my For Russia to attack NATO is like a midget attacking a mammoth with soap bubbles - it can't do it
This also can help you see why it will be possible for Putin to declare the war over even if he has to lose Crimea to do so. He can just say this small special operation in distant Ukraine is over and make claims that Russia has won a big victory even if it lost.
The Russian Federation itself is not at any risk from this war. There is no way that Ukraine could take over Russia and it doesn’t try. It stops at the former Ukraine / Russian border as we saw in the last debunk. See my:
The map I shared can help you see how Ukraine is no threat to the Russian Federation. This is how NATO describes it in their fact check of false things Russia has said about NATO:
Russia is the world's largest country geographically. It is almost twice the size of the US and China.
When Finland joined the Alliance in April 2023, NATO's land border with Russia more than doubled. Even after Finland's accession, only 11% of Russia's land border is shared with NATO countries.
No one has backed Russia into a corner. It is hard to encircle a country with eleven time zones.
. Setting the record straight De-bunking Russian disinformation on NATO
This also can help you see why it will be possible for Putin to declare the war over even if he has to lose Crimea to do so. He can just say this small special operation in distant Ukraine is over and make claims that Russia has won a big victory even if it lost.
The Russian Federation itself is not at any risk from this war. There is no way that Ukraine could take over Russia and it doesn’t try. It stops at the former Ukraine / Russian border as we saw in the last debunk. See my:
See:
Text: The biggest reason that Putin doesn’t want a conflict with NATO is because Russia will lose. And lose quickly.
Putin is NOT preparing for a war with NATO - if he was his top priority would be to protect Moscow
Putin can’t find even one modern tank in Moscow for his Red Square Parades in 2023 or 2024.
By Sept 2022, Russia had lost much of its 1st Guard tank army
“Russia’s conventional force to counter NATO is severely weakened” UK Defence Intelligence
Background graphics: screenshot of this tweet from the UK MoD from 2022 Ministry of Defence 🇬🇧 (@DefenceHQ) on X
Photograph from Red Square parade on May 9, 2023.
. File:2023 Moscow Victory Day Parade 36.jpg - Wikimedia Commons
This is about how they had only one tank in 2024 too.
Putin cares about Russia - Russian culture and buildings and artefacts and "Russianness". He is like a modern day Tsar If he uses nukes, Russia will be harmed Saint Basil#s Cathederal and part of the Red Square, Moscow . Saint Basil's Cathedral and the Red Square
Putin cares about the imperial Faberge eggs of former Tsars - rosebud egg, one of nine eggs, total price $100 million bought for Russia by an oligarch friend Viktor Vekselberg and displayed in Faberge Museum, in Saint Petersburg
For more about those infographics see my
WHY RUSSIA WILL NEVER ATTACK NATO - BECAUSE NATO IS VASTLY MORE POWERFUL LIKE A MIDGET ATTACKING A MAMMOTH WITH SOAP BUBBLE
TEXT ON GRAPHIC:
NASA, huge and powerful but very timid Russia knows it can't use nukes in reality
Russia tiny and weak, bluffs as meaningless as soap bubbles Even the Soviet Union had no way to win a war with nukes
Imagine if your team was invisible - how easily you could win a game of football. That is how much better NATO's F-35 jets are than anything Russia has.
300+ F-35s (USA), 100+ F-35s (Europe). Russia's 5th generation fighter jet is not ready for war and may never be (expensive technology to develop).
NATO's technology is vastly superior (one of many ways)
NATO: Population 967 million
[it's 631 million leaving out USA]
Russia: Population 144 million
NATO: 3.5 million soldiers
Russia: 1.32 million soldiers
Ukraine: 900,000 soldiers
US defence spending $883.7 billion, 3% of GDP
NATO European allies $380 billion, 2% of GDP
Russia: $112 billion, 6% of GDP.
Ukraine: $43.23 billion, 22.1% of GDP
Based on this image created by Dall-E via Bing Chat Generated by Microsoft Copilot
American football photo from: US Navy 090608-N-3283P-018 The Yokosuka Seahawks face off against the Yokohama Harbors during the U.S. Forces Japan-American Football league at Yokosuka Field - Wikimedia Commons
Putin head from this graphic flipped Vladimir Putin (2017-01-17)
Details for the figures on the graphic, see Short debunks For Russia to attack NATO is like a midget attacking a mammoth with soap bubbles - it can't do it
Also NATO is vastly superior to Russia technologically. Imagine how hard it would be to defend against supersonic potatoes? That is what the Russians would see in their radars if they were fighting a NATO country with F-35
s
.When you look for one of these F-35s on radar …
This is what you see: [large potato]
Russian radar operator (imagined): “What is that on the radar? A supersonic potato?”
Billie Flyn, F-35 test pilot on what it would do in Ukraine.
It would go in and kill every surface-to-air missile threat that was out there, and neutralize all the threats on the ground, and achieve air dominance because it would kill all the air-to-air assets also. Remember: we see them, they don’t see us. It’s like playing football, when one team’s invisible, and the other team is not….
Background photos: rightmost potato from: Potato var. Linda HC1 and F-35 at Edwards
Figures from here: Radar Cross Section (RCS)
Then with the Tomahawk cruise missiles it could destroy fighter jets and bombers on the ground up to 2,400 km from the Ukrainian front line. Similar payload to ATACMS but far greater range
.
TEXT ON GRAPHIC
Range of the US tomahawk cruise missile with a half ton payload like the ATACMS, travels at nearly 1000 km / hour, range 2,400 km.
Proven ability to get through Russia's S-400 system
With the current state of Russian air defences, teh US could sink the entire Russian Black Sea fleet in a few hours but doesn't give this capability to ukraine.
Details of the missile here: Tomahawk (missile) - Wikipedia
Circle drawn with this free online map circle drawing tool Radius Around a Point on a Map
Ukraine could quickly sink the entire Black Sea fleet in the same way.
There is no way NATO gives Ukraine such advanced capabilities. But this helps see that how quickly Ukraine wins depends on how much of its vastly superior technological capabilities NATO gives to Ukraine and what permission it gives to Ukraine to use them against Russia.
This can also help you feel safe in NATO countries. Russia is way outmatched. It knows its air defences are almost non existent and it can’t keep adequate air defences for all the targets Ukraine might hit.
Russia is totally unprepared for any war with NATO and there is no way that Russia is going to attack NATO. See also my
THIS IS JUST TO HELP SCARED PEOPLE, NOT ADVOCATING ANY MILITARY POLICY FOR ANYONE
I write this to help scared people. Please note I am NOT in any way advocating anything here or giving any military advice. This is not intended as political.
This is just to help scared people see that if the US gives Ukraine permission to hit targets in Russia with ATACMS that there is nothing to be scared of.
This may help you if scared by the war:
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