Why the Zapad exercises in Belarus are nothing to worry about - numerous countries attending including a close US ally UAE - held every 4 years since 1977 - mid edit

It is just a scheduled exercise that Russia has done with Belarus roughly every 4 years since 1977. The total list of countries that participate in US led exercises in the Zapad list include a very close ally of the US, the UAE.

Writing this on 12 September 2025, the first day of the exercise is nearly over in Belarus - you can check out current time in Belarus.

https://www.google.com/search?q=current+time+in+Belarus&

This may help with some readers - to get you to do a bit of effort to figure it out:

• Russia has invited 22 countries and did this exercise every 4 years since 1977.

• Russia is very weak - it is so caught up in the Ukraine war it couldn't stop rebels with open top trucks in Syria last december

Is this a situation where Russia is likely to attack NATO?

[Answer of course: no, there is no way Russia attacks NATO]

The total list of the participants that also exericse with the US is:

• Zapad Participants that also exercise wth the US (3/9): India, Bangladesh, Tajikistan

• Zapad Observers that also exercise wth the US (6/13): Thailand, Mongolia, Serbia, Kazakhstan, Pakistan, UAE

And there were many more participants in three US led exercises this year.

• 29 countries: RIMPAC in the Pacific, 29 participants, no extra observers (it’s at sea so it would be hard to observe without participating).

  https://www.cpf.navy.mil/About-Us/Exercises-Missions/RIMPAC/Participants/

• 44 countries: Bright Star exercise in Egypt this year had 14 participants and 30 observing nations.

• over 40 countries: The African Lion exercise in 2025 had over 40 countries with 6 of them observers and the rest participants.

Perplexity AI links to the sources

https://www.perplexity.ai/search/looking-for-examples-from-the-KrBVMWYESMWAGDD51U6Zvg#9

It is very normal and expected.

It is likely to be significantly smaller than in 2021 despite the increased number of countries - especially the Rusisan contingent - they just can'ta spare many soldiers from their war and will likely pad it out with civilians to be more impressive.

I found a complete list in India Today for Zapad 2025: "Belarus, Bangladesh, Burkina Faso, Congo, Mali, India, Iran, Niger, and Tajikistan [9 countries] are the participants, while Cambodia, China, Cuba, Kazakhstan, Mongolia, Myanmar, Nicaragua, North Korea, Pakistan, Serbia, Thailand, the UAE, and Uzbekistan [13 countries] will act as observers."

https://www.indiatoday.in/world/story/india-to-join-russia-led-military-drills-pakistan-to-attend-as-observer-glbs-2784080-2025-09-08

However there are other countries in the Zapad exercise that are close allies of US. After all only countries with interests in the Pacific would take part in RIMPAC 2024.

The UAE is one of the US's closest ally in the MIddle East amongst the Muslim countries and frequently takes part in exercises wth the US.

It would perhaps be the closest ally of the US in that list.

The total list of countries that participate in US led exercises in the Zapad list include:

Zapad Participants (3/9): India, Bangladesh, Tajikistan

Zapad Observers (6/13): Thailand, Mongolia, Serbia, Kazakhstan, Pakistan, UAE

https://www.indiatoday.in/world/story/india-to-join-russia-led-military-drills-pakistan-to-attend-as-observer-glbs-2784080-2025-09-08

It’s a similar number of participating and observing countries to 2021 but the details differ. The list in 2025 has two countries from the Middle East and several from Africa.

Participants

• 2021: Armenia, Belarus, India, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia, Russia, Serbia, Tajikistan

• 2025: Belarus, Bangladesh, Burkina Faso, Congo, Mali, India, Iran, Niger, and Tajikistan

Observers:

• 2021: Bangladesh, China, Malaysia, Myanmar, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Uzbekistan, Vietnam

• 2025: Cambodia, China, Cuba, Kazakhstan, Mongolia, Myanmar, Nicaragua, North Korea, Pakistan, Serbia, Thailand, the UAE, and Uzbekistan

I think the UAE is the clearest example of a country Russia would most definitely not invite if it intended anything even slightly dubious.

As usual Russia can't attack NATO.

It could in theory do an extra incursion of Ukraine from the north like the ones in Sumy and Kharkiv oblasts and attempt to take a few villages but it surely wouldn't invite the UAE and all those other countries to watch it attack Ukraine from Belarus.

Also this would be a major challenge as the border with Belarus is patrolled and protected with drones now. There is no chance of an invasion with tanks or infantry fighting vehicles as in 2022 - Ukraine’s drones could blo them all up easily. Russia is no longer using tactics like that.

Russia nowadays makes its advances in Donbas mainly by sending soldiers that try to sneak in past the attention of the drones on foot with camouflage. Most of them are killed in the attempt. If a few get through they then do what they can with whatever they could carry over with them or steal on the other side of the front line in Ukraine when they get there. They are usually soon caught and rounded up by the drones.

There is no way that Russia will do this with all those nations watching and it’s now extremely difficult and a multi-week campaign for Russia to take a small village of a few dozen people in peace time. So they are rather unlikely to waste the effort to try to take a village from Belarus that would be of no use to their campaign in Donbas.

There are numerous military exercises every year. They are a bit like international trade fairs for soldiers. They show off their equipment and training methods, strategic partners train together, others are invited to observe, and they keep up to date with latest methods and equipment around the world.

A country will typically be invited to many exercises every year and they will go to as many as they can go to politically and as they can afford. They often send a small number of soldiers just to attend.

The September Zapad exercises have been held in Belarus roughly every four years since 1977

This is about the first Zapad (which means “West”) exercise in 197

https://nsarchive2.gwu.edu/NSAEBB/NSAEBB154/doc81.pdf

They are DIFFERENT from the exercises in spring 2021 and 2022 which involved ONLY Russia and Belarus.

It's the SPRING exercises that led to the invasion of Ukraine. Not the AUTUMN exercises.

And not even the Russian generals knew that they were going to invade Ukraine until they got the instruction on 24th of February 2022.

It is likely to have very low numbers of Russian soldiers there since almost everyone who can fight in Ukraine is already fighting and they are always looking for more.

Belarus isn't in the Ukraine war but it's a tiny country of just under 9 million about the same population as Switzerland or New Jersey - with only a few thousand not well equipped soldiers with no combat experience.

Belarus details the activities of the Zapad drills, say they will stay far away from the south and west of their country, and they will be training in using drones which I think partly explains all the interest from 22 countries - Russia and Ukraine are the only countries with that expertise.

Russia is currently so weak that it couldn't spare a few thousands of soldiers and a few dozen pilots in fighter jets to protect Assad from rebels in open trucks in Syria.

Because of that Russis lost

• its only foreign sea port outside the former Soviet Union.

• - its only foreign airbase

• - its only military presence in the Middle east

• - its only military presence anywhere outside the former soviet Union except a few militants with trucks and rifles in some very weak countries

The Russians are sure to have fewer soldiers than usual because they can't spare many from the war and Belarus is a very small country, 9 million, similar size to Switzerland or the US state of New Jersey. It has a very small army and its army has never seen battle and hasn't fought in Ukraine and is not very well equipped.

They may well pad them out with large numbers of civilians to make it seem more impressive - support staff - but almost anyone who can fight is already fighting in Ukraine.

Remember Russia couldn't even spare a few thousand soldiers and a few dozen fighter jets to support Assad's regime in Syria last December and as a result lost a very important air and sea bases in Syria and Russian access to the Middle East. Russian soldiers can no longer travel to Syria as soldiers or use anything in Syria.

Russoa indeed has no foreign bases now for its soldiers outside the former Soveit Union. Since it also has no aircraft carriers then its fighter jets are limited to Russia itself and bases in former Soviet Union states that are friendly to Russia

It has only a limited presence in the rest of the world mainly small paramilitary organizations - private soldiers with guns and armoured trucks that Russia takes no responsibility for if they are killed that operate in some very weak economies mainly in Africa.

Summary of the exercise in TASS (Russian propaganda)

QUOTE STARTS

Pavel Muraveiko emphasized that the ongoing exercises, which commenced on Friday, are routine and carefully planned

MINSK, September 12. /TASS/. Belarus affirms that it does not pose a threat to third countries; however, it remains prepared to respond to any provocative actions that may emerge during the Belarusian-Russian Zapad-2025 exercises, according to First Deputy Defense Minister and Chief of the General Staff Pavel Muraveiko.

"I wish to reiterate that we do not threaten other nations and aim to conduct our training exercises in cooperation with our allies," Muraveiko stated. "At the same time, we are vigilantly monitoring all military activities near our borders and stand ready to counter any provocations that might occur during Zapad-2025," the Defense Ministry’s press service quotes Muraveiko as saying.

He emphasized that the ongoing exercises, which commenced on Friday, are routine and carefully planned. Their primary purpose is to enhance the skills of commanders in managing troop groups and executing tasks essential to safeguarding national sovereignty and territorial integrity.

Furthermore, Muraveiko highlighted that the exercises serve to bolster the operational readiness of command and control units, as well as troops, for coordinated actions. They also aim to improve the field training of soldiers, sergeants, and officers. An integral component of these drills is the development of innovative techniques and strategies for modern warfare, alongside measures to boost survivability, controllability, and the effective execution of combat activities.

Exercise’s scenario

The exercises will be conducted in two distinct stages.

The first stage focuses on countering enemy air attack vehicles, executing and preparing defensive combat operations, and establishing conditions to safeguard sovereignty and territorial integrity.

The second stage involves measures to neutralize enemy groups and clear the reclaimed territory. This phased approach is vital for ensuring the nation's security and defense. The training will take place across three designated training grounds in the Vitebsk, Minsk, and Grodno regions, Muraveiko said.

He also cautioned against baseless rumors and false accusations.

"All activities are conducted well away from our southern and western borders. Additionally, our exercise is not targeted at any specific country or countries. It is a strategic preparation for executing designated tasks. The exercise incorporates elements characteristic of modern military conflicts, such as active electronic warfare, the use of unmanned aerial vehicles at various stages of combat, measures to enhance unit survivability and controllability, and the deployment of active interference techniques, including artificial intelligence, to support decision-making," Muraveiko explained.

Furthermore, the exercise will include practicing dispersal tactics, camouflage, establishing command posts, and utilizing Belarus’s terrain features and local infrastructure.

"As part of our preparations, troops have already occupied initial deployment areas, equipped them with engineering support, and created conditions to practice key operational tasks. These activities will be carried out comprehensively, ensuring coordination among different branches of the armed forces and specialized units," he emphasized.

On Friday, the first units will conduct live-fire drills at the training grounds, focusing on countering unmanned aerial vehicles, repelling air strikes, and operating within mixed combat formations.

"We also plan to expand the use of robotic systems, artificial intelligence for coordinating actions, fire support tools, electronic warfare measures, and battlefield operations," Muraveiko added.

The Zapad-2025 exercises are scheduled to conclude on September 16.

https://tass.com/world/2016043

It is also a nuclear drill. But that is normal too.

The US has done at least 8 nuclear drills in 2024 and 2025 so far.

They naturally don't use actual nukes just mockups.

Border is very secure between Belarus and Russia

It’s difficult terrain for soldiers made harder by a policy of encouraging the fields to flood - and patrolled constantly by drones so there is no way that anything big can get throughout without being noticed and most soldiers on foot would be seen quickly too.

I go into details here:

also see:

Research: Zapad exercises in Belarus regularly since 1977 - UK sanctions - Allies interested in $5000 interceptor from Ukraine to shoot down $10,000 decoy - drones pause Russian oil exports

also

Why Putin will never use nukes

It NEVER makes sense for Russia to use nukes EVER.

And this explains why we do NOT risk a world war at all from any of these news stories.

CONTACT ME VIA PM OR ON FACEBOOK OR EMAIL

You can Direct Message me on Substack - but I check this rarely. Or better, email me at support@robertinventor.com

Or best of all Direct Message me on Facebook if you are okay joining Facebook. My Facebook profile is here:. Robert Walker I usually get Facebook messages much faster than on the other platforms as I spend most of my day there.

FOR MORE HELP

To find a debunk see: List of articles in my Debunking Doomsday blog to date See also my Short debunks

Scared and want a story debunked? Post to our Facebook group. Please look over the group rules before posting or commenting as they help the group to run smoothly

• Facebook group Doomsday Debunked

Also do join our facebook group if you can help with fact checking or to help scared people who are panicking.

SEARCH LIST OF DEBUNKS

You can search by title and there’s also an option to search the content of the blog using a google search.

CLICK HERE TO SEARCH: List of articles in my Debunking Doomsday blog to date

NEW SHORT DEBUNKS

I do many more fact checks and debunks on our Facebook group than I could ever write up as blog posts. They are shorter and less polished but there is a good chance you may find a short debunk for some recent concern.

I often write them up as “short debunks”

See Latest short debunks for new short debunks

I also tweet the debunks and short debunks to my Blue Sky page here:

. doomsdaydebunks.bsky.social

I do the short debunks more often but they are less polished - they are copies of my longer replies to scared people in the Facebook group.

I go through phases when I do lots of short debunks. Recently, I’ve taken to converting comments in the group into posts in the group that resemble short debunks and most of those haven’t yet been copied over to the wiki.

TIPS FOR DEALING WITH DOOMSDAY FEARS

If suicidal or helping someone suicidal see my:

BLOG: Supporting someone who is suicidal

If you have got scared by any of this, health professionals can help. Many of those affected do get help and find it makes a big difference.

They can’t do fact-checking, don’t expect that of them. But they can do a huge amount to help with the panic, anxiety, maladaptive responses to fear and so on.

Also do remember that therapy is not like physical medicine. The only way a therapist can diagnose or indeed treat you is by talking to you and listening to you. If this dialogue isn’t working for whatever reason, do remember you can always ask to change to another therapist and it doesn’t reflect badly on your current therapist to do this.

Also check out my Seven tips for dealing with doomsday fears based on things that help those scared, including a section about ways that health professionals can help you.

I know that sadly many of the people we help can’t access therapy for one reason or another - usually long waiting lists or the costs.

There is much you can do to help yourself. As well as those seven tips, see my:

BLOG: Doing what matters at times of stress
— new WHO booklet to help with mental health during COVID19 pandemic

BLOG: Breathe in and out slowly and deeply and other ways to calm a panic attack

BLOG: Tips from CBT
— might help some of you to deal with doomsday anxieties

PLEASE DON’T COMMENT HERE WITH POTENTIALLY SCARY QUESTIONS ABOUT OTHER TOPICS - INSTEAD COMMENT ON POST SET UP FOR IT

PLEASE DON'T COMMENT ON THIS POST WITH POTENTIALLY SCARY QUESTIONS ABOUT ANY OTHER TOPIC:

INSTEAD PLEASE COMMENT HERE:

Post to comment on, with off topic potentially scary comments - or send me a private message - or use our group on Facebook

The reason is I often can’t respond to comments for some time. The unanswered comment can scare people who come to this post for help on something else

Also even an answered comment may scare them because they see the comment before my reply.

It works much better to put comments on other topics on a special post for them.

It is absolutely fine to digress and go off topic in conversations here.

This is specifically about anything that might scare people on a different topic.

PLEASE DON’T TELL A SCARED PERSON THAT THE THING THEY ARE SCARED OF IS TRUE WITHOUT A VERY RELIABLE SOURCE OR IF YOU ARE A VERY RELIABLE SOURCE YOURSELF - AND RESPOND WITH CARE

This is not like a typical post on substack. It is specifically to help people who are very scared with voluntary fact checking. Please no politically motivated exaggerations here. And please be careful, be aware of the context.

We have a rule in the Facebook group and it is the same here.

If you are scared and need help it is absolutely fine to comment about anything to do with the topic of the post that scares you.

But if you are not scared or don’t want help with my voluntary fact checking please don’t comment with any scary material.

If you respond to scared people here please be careful with your sources. Don’t tell them that something they are scared of is true without excellent reliable sources, or if you are a reliable source yourself.

It also matters a lot exactly HOW you respond. E.g. if someone is in an area with a potential for earthquakes there’s a big difference between a reply that talks about the largest earthquake that’s possible there even when based on reliable sources, and says nothing about how to protect themselves and the same reply with a summary and link to measures to take to protect yourself in an earthquake.