Why there is NO RISK of war with Russia from UK, US, France etc providing security guarantees to Ukraine in a carefully designed ceasefire agreement with Russia

There is a simple clear precise point this diagram explains which almost none of the scared people I help understand at a first try. Once you understand this, you can see why there is no risk of a war with Russia from providing security guarantees.

This is what the Alliance of the Willing will work out in detail before they put it to Putin. Zelensky says it will be ready in a week to 10 days after his summit with Trump.

The experts on TV and the presenters and journalists do explain this to some extent but the experts and journalists assume you know so much about how ceasefires work, which in my experience ordinary folk don’t know.

So they are not yet explaining it properly. At least they are not explaining it in the way that scared people understand. So they panic and come to us for help because they think that security guarantees will cause a war with Russia.

There is NO RISK of this. We have decades of experience to build on here to provide security guarantees in a safe and precise way.

Of course all this depends on Russia accepting the ceasefire agreement when ready. You can be sure there will be long negotiations. But there’s a very significant shift in the way Putin is talking since Trump started to get serious about secondary sanctions on India and Russia.

Putin has never talked like this in the entire three years of the war. It is possible that he has genuinely decided that he wants to end this war. This blog post also has a section of speculation about why that may be if he is genuine.

TEXT ON GRAPHIC

Why there is NO RISK of war with Russia to UK, US, France etc from providing security guarantees to Ukraine

Ceasefire agreement (simplified) - likely has more zones and phases

Phase 1, fighting stops
So far enforced with snap-backs only - re-impose all sanctions if Putin breaks it

[Image: Ceasefire line between Ukraine and Russia]

First few days or weeks

• prepare to withdraw

• only the warring parties present

• expect ceasefire violations (arrows)

No foreign boots on the ground or air patrols or sea patrols

Phase 2, neutral zone

[Image: Ceasefire buffer zone with Ukraine, neutral zone, Russia]

• Warring parties have withdrawn and peace stable enough to send neutral observers to buffer zone

No foreign boots on the ground or air patrols or sea patrols

Phase 3, air patrols - lasting peace

[Image:

• US, UK and French jets patrol hundreds of kilometers from buffer zone

• Russian fighter jets patrol hundreds of kilometers from the buffer zone

• boots on the ground remain all or almost all Ukrainian;

Enforced with air patrols, sea patrols and snap-backs

This is now a ceasefire that will last

]
Stable lasting peace - now is the time to add the security guarantees to ensure it will never be broken

THE SECURITY GUARANTEES ARE ONLY DEPLOYED ONCE THE PEACE IS STABLE LONG TERM

We know how to do this - through DECADES of experience from previous ceasefires

The security guarantees to prevent Russia ever attacking Ukraine again has 3 pillars:

1. Defence pillar: continuing transfer of technology so Ukraine can build its own defence industry to the highest modern standards, also air defences and drone technology

2. Snap back sanctions - if Russia attacks it is immediately cut off from financial and energy markets [snap back]

3. No-fly zone in the air and patrols in the sea
   - only the allies can do this because Ukraine can’t yet build up a strong navy or airforce enough to enforce a no-fly zone and safe corridors in the sea

Pillars 1 and 2 can be in place immediately.

The ceasefire will have snap-backs. If Putin violates the agreement then Ukraine's alleis will immediately restore any sanctions that have been removed so far and add extra sanctions like the secondary tariffs.

That is the only enforcement in phase 1 and phase 2 in the example very much simplified ceasefire agreement.

Then in phase 3 the no-fly zone is established.

When you hear on the news that there are US and UK and French fighter jets patrolling Western Ukraine and the Black Sea and UK and French sea patrols in the Black Sea - then you know the war is over - not just for a few weeks or months, but for good.

That is when we will know we have lasting peace in Ukraine.

We have many decades of experience of dozens of ceasefires as a background here. We know how to do this.

Details of security guarantees ready in a week to 10 days after the oval office meeting between Trump and Zelensky

Zelensky expects the details of how it works to be ready in a week to 10 days.

This video is in Ukrainian, there seems to be no official transcript and I can’t find it dubbed into English, but this seems to be the original statement that the news stories use as their source for his time-frame.

TRANSCRIPT

Security guarantees will probably be elaborated by our partners and there will be more and more details. And so, as all this will be on paper, somehow formalized in the next week or 10 days, as I told you, part of the security guarantee, our part, yes, I need additional finances. I am going to find all this money.

And for this, our European partners must understand that we need to find a source of financing for this for a certain period. For a certain period, there should be enough debt so that this is part of the security guarantee.

In addition to salaries, financial support, we can say that our budget may be enough for all salaries. Then we will not have enough money, for example, for our domestic production, as it was now. Our partners did not give anything for the soldiers' salaries, of course, they cannot, but they did give then for our production. Therefore, if we ourselves finance the high salaries of our soldiers and for such a number, we will need strong financing for production.

The package, which is the second item, is a package of weapons, American weapons that we do not have. This includes primarily aircraft, air defense systems, etc. Let's leave it for now. There is indeed a package of our proposals for $90 billion. This is the second part of security guarantees for us. The third part is our production of drones. And we have agreements with the President of the United States of America that when we open up exports, they will buy Ukrainian drones. This is important for us. This will finance our domestic production of drones. Our companies will have money for production and for increasing production.

To find this text, go to Transcript on YouTube at the end of the description and then copy / paste the end of the transcript into auto translate.

So that is what Ukraine and its alliance of the willing are doing right now.

There is no point in talking to Putin about a ceasefire until they have a clear idea from their side of how to do the security guarantees.

They can then go to Putin with this proposal.

The Russians are certain to object, that is normal with this sort of thing. They will say it is utterly impossible and make lots of conditions.

However that is just the starting point of negotiations. If they are genuine about peace then eventually they will agree on a reasonable ceasefire proposal.

So why would Putin be genuine? Speculation: either because losing the oil sales matters far more to him than anyone expected - or because of problems with the war not publicly disclosed

1. Putin has had a marked change of tone since Trump made his announcement about secondary sanctions on India and China

Why would that be? Well even though India is protesting about the sanctions, the Indian refineries are nervous about taking on new deliveries from Russia and Rusisan oil exporters are now trying to get contracts with China instead.

So - just the 25% Trump has already imposed which he says is not to do with the oil - and threat of an extra 25% on the 27th is ALREADY enough to have an impact on the Russian oil revenue.

Putin can see that if Trump makes good on his threat and also extends it to China and Brazil - that even before the tariffs take place he likely can’t sell his oil any more to those countries.

But Russia has liquid reserves and various assets that could easily keep the war going and make up for the temporary deficit for many months. So why the urgency to do something about it?

I think this may have been a surprise to Trump and his allies. Clearly Putin cares much more about the oil sales even than they expected (at least publicly).

Anyway whatever the reason - Putin is above all else a very wealthy oligarch. He may be the world’s first trillionnaire or not far off it.

So it shouldn’t be surprising that he cares about the income to his government more even than most world leaders. A significant fraction eventually ends up in his pocket in one way or another (there is no way he became so wealthy through legitimate methods).

I go into that in my previous blog post here in the long section about Putin’s wealth:

2. The other possibility is that he has serious issues containing the war not yet publicly disclosed

This is unlikely to be the complete reason unless it is an amazing coincidence because the shift in tone came directly in response to Trump getting serious about secondary sanctions.

However, it could be a contributing factor. The mainstream media just say “Putin may have got tired of the war”. But in what way and why?

This could be

• internal pressure from the Kremlin that he or his colleagues for some reason no longer support the war and want it to end

• running out of Soviet era gear. The tanks and infantry fighting vehicles no longer matter as they used to. But the artillery tubes do matter and he has limited supply as they wear out.

• kill zone and effect of drones - it’s harder and harder to get through the drones at the front line - could he foresee a point in the near future where the advances can’t happen any more?

The latest advances in Donbas have been fragile as he can only get a few soldiers on foot through the front line equipped with whatever they can carry. The big announcement the day before the Alaska summit was of a region of many square kilometers of countryside with 10 to 15 Russian soldiers in it travelling on foot.

As you see from the blue areas here, the Ukrainians quickly won it back and they are also cutting through the entire salient.

This is a tiny area - it’s only about 4 miles across. Yet Putin announced it as a big shift the day before the Alaska summit, only to lose it again soon after.

Anyway whatever the reason - the media just say he may be tired of the war.

But why? In what way?

Anyway there is a noticeable shift in his stance - he has NEVER even hinted at the possibility of talking to Zelensky or of letting Ukraine have security guarantees of any form whatsoever before.

Something has changed in the language we hear from the Kremlin.

Nobody except Putin himself and his inner circle (and possibly secret intelligence in US / UK etc) knows what it really means.

If Putin is genuine then this can proceed to a proper ceasefire agreement - with the Russians of course protesting all the way about every particular security guarantee while agreeing on the need in principle - but that is how negotiations work

Then it is over to Putin. If he agrees the next step is to draw up a formal ceasefire agreement.

Both sides then negotiate over it and then finally they sign it.

Then we see if Putin is genuine.

All this is NORMAL for a ceasefire and peace treaty - only thing new this time is much more UNINFORMED social media comment and the journalists focusing on clicks and views with the modern highly competitive 24/7 online news cycle

I think this is the first ceasefire which has ever had so much attention and so many people who know nothing about ceasefires commenting on it.

That is the only reason there is so much anxiety because these people haven't a CLUE about how it is done.

In previous ceasefires they just got on with the negotiations and the news would report progress and there was never all this endless uninformed comment from social media because it didn't exist.

It is good. It keeps people on their toes - but it also is confusing to scared people because there are so many people commenting on line and making videos and writing blog posts who don't bother to check even the most basic facts about how ceasefires are done.

Then compounded by journalists that focus on whatever gets the most clicks and views which gives them a perverse disincentive to explain carefully why it isn't scary.

See also

Typical ceasefire process step by step

[from end of the last post - this new post is expanding on this section so it will do as a summary of this new post]

Typically the ceasefire happens step by step. First the parties have to separate with a buffer zone between them and only international monitors are permitted in the buffer zone and such like (also local people like farmers) but none of the warring parties.

Then step by step other precautions are put in place to make sure the fighting doesn't start up again.

At some point in a carefully orchestrated process, the UK, and France will start doing air patrols far from the front line in Ukraine and sea patrols in the Baltic sea to ensure that the ceasefire continues.

The presence of those three, France, UK and Germany, suggests that there may be strong focus on security guarantees. Especially since the US said they also will be prepared to offer security guarantees and that they got a concession from Putin that he recognizes the need for security guarantees.

I go into details about all that in my previous blog post:

SEE ALSO

Why Putin will never use nukes

It NEVER makes sense for Russia to use nukes EVER.

And this explains why we do NOT risk a world war at all from any of these news stories.

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