Is this partly why Putin is interested in a ceasefire? New Ukrainian Flamingo cruise missile with range 3,000 km, payload 1,150 kg - also gives Ukraine more leverage in negotiations

Another potential good news item that may help end the Ukraine war sooner rather than later. This along with the tariffs could help explain why Putin changed his views - or if not - it may be released deliberately to help persuade him that this is the right time for a ceasefire.

We already have the pressure from the tariffs but this may be another factor on top of that.

It is not an accidental leak it is a government announcement - first released as a result of a press briefing with an Associated Press reporter attending.

It is very clear that Zelensky wants peace. He would have kept it secret until after the peace talks failed if he wanted to use the Flamingo in the war.

Zelensky does say they have already used it but clearly not yet in a major way. They seem to have used it just so they could say they have used it.

Since Ukraine already used the missile, it’s possible that Putin already knew its capabilities, and that could be partly why he is interested in a ceasefire, or if not, this may help seal the deal for him.

Not predicting anything but it is quite a game changer.

These specs will make it one of the most capable cruise missiles in the world. It is significantly more capable than the Russian cruise missiles.

It would be able to hit both of the Geran / Shahed factories at less than half its range. It could hit a Russian warship in either the Black Sea or the Caspian sea (valid targets as they are used to fire missiles at Ukraine).

If this is correct it way out ranks anything Russia has by way of cruise missiles. It also outranks what hey can do by way of ballistic missiles too - apart from the ICBMs and IRBMs which are so ridiculously expensive Russia has only ever used one in the war as a propaganda stunt - the IRBM.

It also significantly increases Ukraine’s own security guarantees. They would be able to scale up production in peace time and once they have several thousand Flamingos there’s no way that Russia would attack again. That is a point Fabian Hoffman makes.

Ukraine seems to have made 480 of them already.

This is yet another card that Zelensky must have known about already in his oval office meeting in February with Trump.

Suit of cards from here https://www.threads.com/@pglynn61/post/DKZ-yaDR1zr/looks-like-zelensky-got-a-new-suit-and-all-of-the-cards-istandwithukraine-wtfame

Details of the Kh-101

https://missilethreat.csis.org/missile/kh-101-kh-102/

I expected Ukraine to catch up with the Tomahawk eventually It is 1980s technology after all. But this is faster than expected.

It’s able to hit within 14 meters of the target at 3000 km, that’s around 45 feet. It’s called the Flamingo because the first batch was coloured pink because of a factory error.

QUOTE STARTS

The company completed testing this year for its first cruise missile, the FP-5. Capable of traveling 3,000 kilometers (1,864 miles) and landing within 14 meters (45 feet) of its target, the FP-5 is one of the largest such missile in the world, delivering a payload of 1,150 kilograms (2,535 pounds), independent experts said. Because initial versions of the missile came out pink after a factory error, they called it the Flamingo — and the name has stuck.

Fire Point is producing roughly one Flamingo per day, and by October they hope to build capacity to make seven per day, Terekh said.

https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-drones-weapons-industry-russia-7201ab851544c394ee454407058b10ba

At 7 per day that's 7*365 = 2555 a year. They could make 5000 in two years.

That’s useful for post-war security. Russia will be extremely unlikely to invade again once Ukraine has 5000 flamingos able to hit targets with one ton of explosives up to 3000 km away.

It’s similar to the FP-5 produced by Milano, a UAE company almost identical specs. If it is similar in speed too then it can travel at a similar speed to the Tomahawk.

https://www.twz.com/news-features/new-ukrainian-cruise-missile-with-claimed-1800-mile-range-breaks-cover

This is what it looks like. It’s clearly powered by a jet engine rather than by propeller (the Geran drones are propeller driven) so that also suggests it is similar in speed to a Tomahawk.

https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-drones-weapons-industry-russia-7201ab851544c394ee454407058b10ba

That’s also confirmed here:

• Range: 3,000 kilometers (1,864 miles)

• Payload: up to 1,150 kilograms (2,535 pounds)

• Accuracy: within 14 meters (45 feet) of its target

• Speed: up to 950 km/h (590 mph)

https://united24media.com/latest-news/ukraines-flamingo-cruise-missile-moves-toward-mass-production-after-successful-tests-10943

That’s almost identical in speed to the Tomahawk cruise missile at 570 mph

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tomahawk_missile

This table compares the Flamingo with the other cruise missiles Ukraine has, also with the Tomahawk cruise missile, which Ukraine often asked the US to supply but never got, and the longest range Russian cruise missile the Kh-101 and the heaviest payload Russian cruise missile, the Kh-32

It is way out there.

The Kh-32 just beats the Kh-101 though at shorter range, at 500 kg instead of 450 kg. https://weaponsparade.com/weapon/kh-32-as-4-kitchen/

Note the range of a cruise missile can be rather variable.

For instance, in another source, the Kh-101 is listed as 5,500 km instead of 2,500 km to 2,800 km for 400 kg and 2,250 km for 800 kg. https://global.espreso.tv/military-news-modernized-kh-101-missiles-why-they-are-dangerous

The Kh-101 is air launched and cruise missiles can fly with much less drag at high altitude, then dip down for the final approach. If the Flamingo could be launched from a high altitude it would likely have longer range.

So some of the variation could be due to assumptions about the flight path. Also depends on the payload.

At any rate whether Russia can fire a cruise missile further than 3000 km or not (probably can with a lighter payload and fired from altitude), the main thing is that 3000 km puts large areas of Russia within range of Ukraine.

A country that is invaded has every right to strike back at the country that is invading it - so long as it hits only defensive targets.

Ukraine is NOT permitted to hit the Kremlin with this missile or to target Putin or legislators or civilians or civilian objects. All those are war crimes and though Russia target s civilians in Ukraine, Ukraine NEVER targets civilians in Russia.

All its targets are legitimate military defensive targets - either directly involved in the war or directly involved in supplying the war (e.g. drone depots, drone factories, munitions supplies, fuel depots, oil refineries, trains that are used to bring supplies to the front line, bridges vital for supply of the front line, air fields used to attack Ukraine etc).

Trump made a good point in his recent tweet on Truth Social - which shows he supports Ukraine’s independent development of the Flamingo:

QUOTE STARTS

It is very hard, if not impossible, to win a war without attacking an invaders country. It’s like a great team in sports that has a fantastic defense, but is not allowed to play offense. There is no chance of winning! It is like that with Ukraine and Russia.

...

Interesting times ahead!!!

https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/115067017601499775

This is a big lever for Russia.

Not going to win the war and liberate occupied Ukraine - not any time soon with only 30 a month increasing to 210 a month by the end of the year - but CAN be a significant psychological lever for a ceasefire - and to bolster Ukraine’s hand in the ceasefire negotiations

It would take thousands of these missiles to actually win the war - so they won’t win the war any time soon - and eventually of course Russia would make similar missiles itself.

QUOTE Fire Point, a Ukrainian startup company, is already assembling FP-5 Flamingo cruise missiles at a rate of up to 30 units per month, aiming to reach a production rate of 210 units a month by October 2025.

https://en.defence-ua.com/analysis/ukrainian_fire_point_fp_5_flamingo_in_detail_warhead_from_the_us_possibly_bunker_buster_and_ballistic_missile_body-15552.html

But the timing suggests that Ukraine doesn’t want to use them actively in the war - beyond the flights it’s already done to show its capability to Russia.

Instead, this is meant to influence Putin towards peace.

If it works, Ukraine gets a ceasefire and then never uses them.

It's what I like to call a "psychological lever".

1. the two factories that make the Geran / Shahed drones are well within range and if those are destroyed the Russian bombing of Uikrainian cities becomes far less effective.

2. Assuming it can be used against targets in the sea, then every warship in the Black and Caspan seas is vulnerable to it.

It wouldn't take thousands but only dozens to sink the entire Black Sea / Caspian fleet and that would be so humiliating for Russia. So a psychological lever.

This wouldn't end the war but Putin would surely have strong motivations for a ceasefire to preserve his historic Black Sea fleet.

3. The strategic bombers at Engels base are well within range.

4. Russian air defences have been penetrated even by the very slow modified ultralight aircraft like the A-22 Foxbat

QUOTE Concerns regarding survivability in heavily defended airspace have also rapidly arisen. The Flamingo’s large size, long wingspan, and subsonic speed make it potentially easier to detect and intercept than smaller or faster weapons. Some observers argue that gaps in coverage, low-altitude routing, and the use of decoys or drones could compensate for these limitations, while others point out that Ukraine has previously managed to penetrate more than 1,000 kilometers into Russian airspace with modified aircraft (like the A-22 Foxbat) and legacy Soviet drones (such as the Tu-143).

Online discussions also included attempts to estimate dimensions from transport trailers, with assessments suggesting a total missile length of 6 to 7 meters, a diameter of 80 to 90 centimeters, and a wingspan of around 5.2 meters. Analysts further debated whether the publication of images before the first operational use could allow Russia to adapt its defenses, although others noted that Russian intelligence services are now aware of the program.

https://armyrecognition.com/focus-analysis-conflicts/army/conflicts-in-the-world/russia-ukraine-war-2022/new-flamingo-cruise-missile-will-allow-ukraine-to-strike-key-russian-assets-from-3-000-km-away

The A-22 Foxbat was especially useful early on when Ukraine started targeting oil refineries. They have far better systems now. But it was very striking when they used it successfully. It’s just a civilian microlight.

Replace the human pilot and passenger with payload and an autopilot and you have an improvised long distance drone that would fly for hours through the Russian countryside without being shot down by its air defences.

Also there’s very little known about the Flamingo yet. By analogy with Ukraine’s other recent drones and missiles, this may well be a new missile built from scratch though resembling the FP-5 from UAE.

If so they would be sure to use the radar absorbing foam and many other techniques that Ukraine uses for ow cost radar stealthy drones and missiles. The Tomahawk has add on stealth coatings. The Flamingo may be designed with radar absorbing / near invisible materials from the get go.

Here is a more detailed look at it:

There seem to be

• four completed FP-5s

• Several more near completion

• Designed to be hard to spot on radar with sophisticated wound fibreglass outside shell and metal only used for the engine nacelle (the part on the top that houses the jet engine).

• Resistant to electronic jamming

• Warhead could be a bunker busting bomb able to penetrate 2 meters (6 feet) of hardened concrete or a similar high explosive bomb (which would cause a lot of damage for a surface facility)

Those details are from here and I’ll quote the section about the sophisticated technology to hide it from radar:

QUOTE STARTS

Its design is more advanced than initially believed. The main monocoque fuselage is produced using fiberglass winding, a complex process reminiscent of winding a cocoon, leaving a distinctive diagonal fiber pattern.

This technology, usually reserved for ballistic missiles, makes the fuselage lightweight but also strong and robust enough to carry structural loads, with external stiffeners providing further reinforcement. Furthermore, since fiberglass is radar-transparent, it reduces the missile's visibility compared to similarly sized metal-bodied weapons.

The front and rear fairings are also radar-transparent, with metal used only for the engine nacelle, where high temperatures require it.

The engine compartment also houses a satellite navigation system with CRPA antennas, protected against jamming. Comparable to russia's Kometa-M, this setup ensures high resistance to electronic warfare.

https://en.defence-ua.com/analysis/ukrainian_fire_point_fp_5_flamingo_in_detail_warhead_from_the_us_possibly_bunker_buster_and_ballistic_missile_body-15552.html

It weighs 6 tons. It has a six meters wingspan.

It is powered by aircraft engines. Since they only need to survive for a few hours they can use old stockpiles of engines that are not much use for anything else and Ukraine has access to large numbers of those.

QUOTE STARTS

Engines in this category include the Honeywell (formerly Garrett) TFE731, with 22.2 kN of thrust, or early non-afterburning variants of the Rolls-Royce Adour, starting at 22 kN. Ukraine's AI-322 offers slightly more power at 24.5 kN, though with a lower thrust-to-weight ratio — not a critical drawback. Another candidate is the AI-25TL, also Ukrainian, producing 17 kN and used on the L-39.

…

The Adour and AI-25, for example, have been produced in large quantities, numbering in the thousands. Many units, though long retired from flight service, may still be stored and usable. For cruise missiles, this is acceptable: the engine only needs to function reliably for about four hours, long enough for the FP-5 to reach the target.

https://en.defence-ua.com/analysis/two_possible_drawbacks_of_ukraines_fp_5_flamingo_cruise_missile-15526.html

It seems to have been tested several months ago in combat.

TWEET STARTS

Ukraine’s new Flamingo missile was test-fired several months ago, according to ZNUA. The combat trial was successful, with the missile striking its target

https://x.com/United24media/status/1957457985241821282

They don’t yet have hundreds of them and Zelensky will say more when they do.

"The tests of this missile were successful. And so far, it is the most successful missile we have—it flies 3,000 kilometers, which is important. I believe that we cannot talk much about it until we can use hundreds of missiles. By December, we will have more of them. And by the end of December or in January-February, mass production should begin,"

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4027952-zelensky-mass-production-of-flamingo-missile-to-begin-in-januaryfebruary.html

Continues:

We need to look at success in testing, we need to look at the funding of this program,”

https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/ukraine-s-flamingo-missile-reaches-3-000-1755762435.html

At a rate of 1 a day increasing to 7 a day or 210 a month they likely have hundreds before the end of the year.

https://en.defence-ua.com/analysis/ukrainian_fire_point_fp_5_flamingo_in_detail_warhead_from_the_us_possibly_bunker_buster_and_ballistic_missile_body-15552.html

Ukraine has been developing small drone technology with the rapid turn around time of finding out what works and doesn't in an active war. It's likely more sophisticated than it seems.

As for numbers the UAE FP-5 can be made at a rate of 50 a month so they could rapidly reach 100 or 150 which is enough to sink all the warships in the Black and Caspian seas - not to actually do this - not to win the war - as a lever to get Putin to agree to a ceasefire.

Ukraine as we saw plans to ramp up to 7 a day or 210 a month by the end of the year .

If it doesn’t work then though Ukraine can’t end the war it can likely significantly change the balance of the war and make it far harder for Russia to take more land in the future. For instance Ukraine would surely target the drone factories and stop the Geran 2 / Shahed drones not long after the ceasefire negotiations fail if they do. That would free up a lot of their air defences to protect the front line instead.

Why this could end the war without ever being used in large numbers - military psychological lever - work best if they NEVER need to be used

I’ve had to coin a new word “military psychological lever” because I need a way to describe what Ukraine does, using military levers for psychological effect.

If there is a standard military term for this do say.

So here is why Putin might be nudged more in the direction of a ceasefire by this new announcement - look at all the high value targets - that would be a huge embarrassment to Putin if Ukraine was to damage them.

The

• brand new high tech Yaluba factory for making Geran 2 / Shahed drones

• Engels base with its strategic bombers which are either irreplaceable or immensely expensive which are valid targets because they are used to fire conventional cruise missiles at Ukraine

• The Black Sea Fleet and Caspian Sea Fleet - these are centuries old, and no Russian leader has ever lost its entire Black Sea Fleet - not the sort of record in history Putin would like to have for himself.

Drawn using free online map tool here, set Kyiv as center and radius 3000 km, for Yeluba and Engels base 2, I set the radius to 1 km just to get the markers

https://www.threads.com/@pglynn61/post/DKZ-yaDR1zr/looks-like-zelensky-got-a-new-suit-and-all-of-the-cards-istandwithukraine-wtfame

A capability Putin doesn’t have - and developed by Ukraine itself not NATO

Also it is a capability that Putin doesn’t have and to make it more embarrassing, it’s a capability that Ukraine developed by itself, not NATO. Ukraine developed it during the war, had nothing like it before only the much shorter range Neptune cruise missile at a tenth of the range.

But Russia has nothing like it.

Not even its ballistic missiles - apart from the ridiculously expensive ICBMs (not designed for a conventional payload anyway) and Oreshnik (only used once as a propaganda stunt, very expensive and not much use).

See:

They are in such short supply that Russia has only ever used one of them once - probably just a scheduled test that they decided to use against a city instead of a test range. They are not practical for a war like this.

To be fair - Russia was limited by the INF treaty from developing missiles like the Flamingo from the ground before the US withdrew from the INF treaty. But it could have developed them air or sea launched and it has never got close. Especially sea launched it’s almost identical to launching from land.

This table shows the Ukraine and Russian ballistic missiles and the longest distance cruise missile for each party. It includes the ATACMS since it is pretty close to ballistic in its path.

Even when you include ballistic missiles, Russia has nothing like the Flamingo. Nor does Ukraine have anything else even close to it.

I made these charts with Perplexity AI.

https://www.perplexity.ai/search/if-it-is-true-that-ukraine-s-f-4xAlr9j9SqmoBJos2Ae0eQ

I’ve checked most of the figures or knew them already.

Also - these are just preliminary figures for the Flamingo - but the Ukrainians tend to be accurate about such things.

Why Ukraine could build the Flamingo - it has plenty of expertise and technical equipment - and now has the finance too

Ukraine now has several billion dollars a month which is a debt set against the interest on the Russian frozen foreign reserves. That is why they can do something very major like that this year, they have the funding to do it. They have always had the ability - it's the Ukrainians that built the silo based Soviet Union ICBMS and had the maintenance contract for them through to 2014 when Ukraine cancelled it from their side - and Ukraine also built the Soviet Union aircraft carriers. It also built Soviet Union tanks and it was involved in the Soviet Union nuclear weapons industry too - it was a defense hub of the Soviet Union much as East Germany was.

There will be many people in Ukraine still alive who were involved in those projects. So they have the knowledge. They have kept a lot of the technology. They have been boosted by technology transfer from Western companies investing in Ukraine and they now have the money to do really big projects.

Why the Black Sea Fleet would be an effective military psychological lever

Highly unlikely that Ukraine would be as unsubtle as to threaten Putin to sink his Black Sea fleet - that is something he can figure out for himself. If necessary they could demonstrate the capability - but his advisors would advise him of the vulnerability just from the specifications.

The Black Sea fleet is very important to Russia historically and culturally as well as militarily.

TEXT ON GRAPHIC

Russia’s Black Sea Fleet is of huge national pride to the Russians. Ukraine has already sunk its flagship and a third of its ships with the ATACMS, stormshadows and its own native Neptune but most have retreated out of reach to the far side of the Black Sea.

If Ukaine had the Tomahawk cruise missile it could sink the entire fleet - gone from the Black Sea for the first time since it began in 1783

A major lever for negotiations with Russia from a position of strength.

Black Sea Fleet - just before the start of the Crimean war of 1853-6

Graphic: Ivan Aivazovsky. Black Sea Fleet in the Bay of Theodosia, Crimea, just before the Crimean War

The 1000 km for the long Neptune was already enough for the Black Sea because the frigates and even the corvettes couldn’t realistically be moved to the Caspian sea because Ukraine has fire control over the Kerch strait.

But now Ukraine can realistically reach the Caspian sea too.

The Black Sea fleet goes back to 1783 and has around 50 surface warships, 7 subs and various other auxiliary ships and landing ships.

QUOTE approx 50 surface warships (frigates, corvettes, missile boats, minesweepers) plus landing ships, oilers, tugs, survey, intelligence and auxiliary vessels
7 submarines

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Sea_Fleet

The Caspian sea flotilla is smaller and goes back even further to 1722. It has

• c. 14 surface combatants

• 8 landing craft

• 8 minesweepers

• 3 anti-saboteur boats

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caspian_Flotilla

Once Ukraine has one month of supply of Flamingos at 210 a month it could likely sink all the larger warships in both fleets with two missiles to each ship.

So - surely Putin would agree to a ceasefire in October if the alternative is to lose both fleets?

Ukraine doesn’t have this capability yet but it will in the near future.

Ukraine’s previous use of military psychological levers for the May day parade and the strategic bombers

Ukraine has used military psychological levers before (my term).

Ukraine achieved a temporary lull in the bombing of its cities by a similar military psychological lever on May 9. It showed it has the capability to attack the military parade, which was a genuine military target too. Putin took this so seriously that he built a special drone protection pavilion for his guests.

But Ukraine never used them and instead it enjoyed the brief lull in attacks on its cities

A perfect military psychological lever is a capability you have but never use - you achieve your goals by NOT using it.

TEXT ON GRAPHIC: A perfect military psychological lever is one you never need to use

Significant progress towards peace
- many more levers Ukraine and its allies can use

Zelensky levered Putin to
- do a 3 day truce
- which Ukraine respected though Russia didn’t
- and then arrange a meeting in Turkey of great signfiicance even if it never happens
All by NOT even flying drones over his parade.

Putin now HAS to decide where he stands on a truce in Ukraine

With many more levers Ukraine and its allies can use.

Zelensky and Trump levered this to force Putin to arrange a meeting in Tuirkey - and then challenge him to show up himself!

Graphic from this point in the victory parade with the photo of Putin and other leaders from another point in the video nearby.

See my

Also with the strategic bombers. In this case it was a psychological lever flip.

We later heard that Ukraine got intelligence that Russia planned to do a massive attack using cruise missiles launched from Engels base and others at Ukraine on the first day of the Istanbul peace talks - Putin thinks that this helps him get a good deal in negotiations - or seems to.

Well - the Ukrainians instead used their hidden card to destroy many of the strategic bombers on the ground and Russia had to call off the attack.

So - it’s a thing that Ukraine does and this fits in very well.

Does not mean Putin will agree to a ceasefire - but he has another reason to be interested and “get tired of the war” of course never admitting publicly why

It’s premature to say that Putin will agree to a ceasefire.

But this is one more lever to incline him in that direction.

More leverage for Ukraine for negotiations - likely can’t win the war now as in drive Russia out of occupied Ukraine - but CAN achieve far better resolution to the war

I don't think Ukraine can win this war - but what it can do is to achieve a just ceasefire with

• reparations from Russia (at least the $300 billion frozen assets)

• returning the forcefully adopted kids to their parents

• release of not just soldiers but political prisoners and journalists from Ukraine that are in Russian prisons, some for over a decade

• perhaps also some form of guarantees of rights for Ukrainians in occupied Ukraine.

• also right of Ukrainians to move from occupied Ukraine to the area held by Ukraine.

The more leverage Ukraine has the more possible for it to achieve things like that.

Also there is no way that Ukraine will ever vote to legally cede Crimea or anywhere else to Russia.

That leaves open the option that in the future Ukraine is unified after Putin's regime no longer exists and a new change of government.

That happened in my lifetime for Germany - seemed to be an unbreakable wall between East and West Germany - but then the Berlin wall came down and Germany was reunified.

Ukrainians in the two territories would continue to yearn for a unified Ukraine and some day it may become true.

See also

also

also

SEE ALSO

Why there is NO RISK of war with Russia from UK, US, France etc providing security guarantees to Ukraine in a carefully designed ceasefire agreement with Russia

Robert Walker

·

20 Aug

There is a simple clear precise point this diagram explains which almost none of the scared people I help understand at a first try. Once you understand this, you can see why there is no risk of a war with Russia from providing security guarantees.

Read full story

SEE ALSO

Why Putin will never use nukes

It NEVER makes sense for Russia to use nukes EVER.

And this explains why we do NOT risk a world war at all from any of these news stories.

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