Trump is spending the good will a new president has with pointless fights - undermining his own position in government - setting himself up for a much less effective presidency
This blog post will sound counterintuitive because Trump is trying to act like a big boss in a company, a CEO, like his celebrity role in “The Apprentice, You are fired”. But he doesn’t have that power as president.
For an overview: you can skip to the Contents or click on the vertical column of dashes to the left on a laptop.
This is to help easily scared people - we need to wait for the dust to settle, the legal cases to be taken out and resolved - then you’ll see how little power that he has to actually do these things.
This isn't debunking anything particular but helping you to get an overview. You are safe from the things most of you are asking for help with.
Your rights are protected. The US will remain a democracy. Trump is doing lots of noisy fights but he can't really do what he thinks he can do. Just gets entangled in court cases as once again for the nth time he tries to do something no president can ever do.
He doesn't seem to have learnt much from his first term.
We can see many signs of these restraints already. A president is only one branch of the US government and the lowest of the heap actually.
TEXT ON GRAPHIC:
You’re fired … Oops, a president can’t do that …
As in his first term, Trump got tangled in court cases rapidly - because he is only one of 3 branches of government.
Trump doesn’t have the same powers as president he is used to as CEO or celebrity host. Trump also has no experience as a legislator and doesn’t have a knack for working with Congress.
Trump fights with many he needs on his side.
Background graphic from one of the episodes of The Apprentice You’re Fired when he fired a contestant for a spelling mistake see video here
The president plays a much smaller role in the US government than many realize.
This initial surge of illegal orders is very unusual and so though I'm sure we'll have more drama in his 4 years I'll be surprised if it continues at this high intensity for long.
See:
Contents
Numerous legal cases against Trumps first executive orders - he will likely lose most of them
Plan new megathread based on what Trump has done since inauguration
Limitations on the power of a president - his job is to implement the laws passed by Congress as interpreted by the Judiciary based on the US Constitution
The president has little actual power from the US Constitution - his pardon power and his position as commander in chief of the army mainly. But the military take an oath to the US Constitution above all and he orders a general, doesn’t order the army directly. Also he can only use his military overseas. At home, he’s limited to calling on them for emergency relief in hurricanes and such-like and using them like supplementary national guards under civilian law if he needs more national guards to handle an insurrection.
He does have a fair bit of control when it comes to foreign policy.
But domestically most of his power comes from Congress. Trump has never been a legislator himself and has little understanding of how government works which leads to many of his frustrations and miss-steps. He is not able to do things that other presidents with more patience and more ability to work across the aisle might have been able to do.
The president’s job is to implement the laws passed by Congresss as interpreted by judges and justices on the basis of the US Constitution.
A president can’t even propose a law himself, only ask a legislator to propose it for him. He can’t pass a law, or remove or edit a law. Only veto a law that comes to his desk - and the veto power can be overridden by a 2/3 majority in both chambers.
The president is in charge of the Department of Justice but it’s role also is only to enforce laws that Congress has already passed. It can’t pass laws and it can’t interpret them. It only is able to prosecute cases, the judges from an independent judiciary decide the cases.
The Department of Justice often loses cases. In his first term Trump started with an ultra low rate of winning only 1 case in 20 in the lower courts as we’ll see. His high point was when he reached one win in 5. The issue in his first term was that his team just doesn’t prepare carefully for court cases like the teams for other presidents. https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/524016-tired-of-winning-trumps-record-in-the-courts/
He won less than 1 case in 2 in the Supreme Court and slightly over 1 case in 3 of the high profile Supreme Court cases, the worst record for any president at least since 1937. Trump administration had worst Supreme Court record since at least FDR years, study says
The DoJ can’t do that much for a president who doesn’t prepare for legal cases.
So the president can’t interpret the laws or decide if his executive orders are legal. Only judges can.
The only reason a president can use executive orders at all is because Congress has delegated some powers to the president. This is mainly for convenience, otherwise it would have to pass thousands of laws every year to get anything done. So Congress passes laws that give the president power over some wide range of actions to decide things for himself.
Congress can take those powers back again.
This shows the structure of part of the US government. As you can see, the president is quite a small part of it.
These arrows show some of the checks and balances.
A diagram of the political system of the United States.
What this diagram doesn’t show is that over and above all this is the US Constitution. The US Constitution set up the entire government with all that structure of checks and balances and is the basis for the Supreme Court interpretations of laws, and your rights, including right to free speech and to vote, protection against unreasonable searches and so on.
Only States can edit the constitution, and to stop any amendment takes only one chamber in each of 13 states. The US currently has 20 states with at least one chamber Democrat. So it is not going to change the constitution in any way favorable to Trump. The Judiciary (including the Supreme Court) interpret the laws passed by Congress according to the US Constitution.
So a president can’t get that much done with just executive orders. He HAS to work with Congress to get anything major done by way of domestic policy. Also the executive and Congress HAVE to work within the framework of existing laws and the Constitution and they can only use those laws as interpreted by judges and justices, with the Supreme Court for the last word about whether the way they want to use a law is constitutional.
A normal president uses the boost of enthusiasm from his win, and the good will of the American people to get things done in his first 100 days
A new president typically will start with a lot of good will from
Congress, not just his own party but the other party also willing to give him a chance,
from judges,
from his own executive, the career officers who help him to govern,
the media will normally also be far more favorable to him in the first 100 days (e.g. Biden or Obama's first 100 days),
the American people who voted for him enthusiastic, and
other countries also are ready to welcome the new president and try to find best ways to work with him.
So the normal way a president works is that boosted by the high approval of the public in the USA and of legislators, they try to get as much done as possible in the first 100 days and prepare a solid ground for more successes later in their first term.
That is what Biden did and Obama.
Trump is using the same boost of good will and approval to start numerous pointless fights with ALL the groups of people that would normally be on his side
But Trump has decided instead to use all this good will and approval to pick numerous pointless fights he can't win with ALL of these and more.
This is what we are fact checking at the moment. Many pointless but dramatic fights. A new one most days. Most are ones he can’t win and he also hasn’t prepared any plan B in case they fail.
I know that the executive orders Trump signs make it SEEM like he can do almost everything. But it’s NOT working. He is getting tied up in a whole morass of problems.
This shows us how robust democracy is in the USA from the way that Trump's illegal orders get paused.
Before his inauguration we got lots of questions from scared people in our Doomday Debunked group worrying (incorrectly) that it doesn’t matter what the judges do because Trump will just ignore them.
As fact checkers we reassured scared people that this idea that he can just ignore the law is so very far from the truth.
Those of us who remember his first term saw this over and over so many times in his first term. It’s clear we’ll see it over and over again in this second term too. Numerous fights, with him stopped many times over.
Nothing Trump can do when a judge pauses or stops an illegal order
We saw that with the Federal funding freeze the other day.
A judge paused it.
22 states took out a legal case
the OMB immediately backtracked - they knew they would lose.
Details here: BLOG:
It was a victory for the American people and common sense - also for the US Constitution and for democracy.
This is the main reason Trump can’t become a dictator
This is the main thing different between the USA and Russia say.
Putin can edit the Russian Constitution at any time with a sham referendum and he can do illegal things like assassinate rivals and know that the judges won't dare to investigate him.
Trump can't do either of those things.
This is why the US can never become an autocracy like Russia.
The executive is powerless to continue if the judiciary rules it has to stop. We are sure to see many more stories like this as the cases go through the courts.
Numerous legal cases against Trumps first executive orders - he will likely lose most of them
Here is a useful page tracking all the legal challenges to Trump's executive orders so far. As of writing this it is tracking more than 20 legal cases against his executive orders (sometimes several cases against the same executive order)
They are against:
Ending Birthright Citizenship
Judge John Coughenour issued a temporary restraining order
Punishment of sanctuary cities and states
on grounds it violates Administrative Procedure Act and the First Amendment
Expedited removal for illegal immigrants anywhere in the US who can’t prove they’ve been continuously resident for 2 years
on grounds it is arbitrary and disregards legal and constitutional protections against wrongful removal.
Discontinuation of CBP One app to help Asylym seekers make an appointment
Schedule F to strip many members of the civil serice of their protections so that the government can fire them at will
Establishing DOGE by renaming U.S. Digital Service as the U.S. DOGE Service (Department of Government Efficiency)
on grounds that it gives decision-making authority to private citizens that the public can’t access - must give access or it should be closed down as this is not permited under the Federal Advisory Committee Act,
Solicitation of information from career employees
on the grounds that that the emails were stored on an insecure server
“Temporary Pause” of grants, loans, and assistance programs
on grounds it violates the Administrative Procedure Act and the First Amendment.
Judge ordered a temporary freeze and then the OMB backed down and stopped the freeze
Moving a trans woman to a male prison and withholding her gender affirming hormone treatment
judge ordered a pause to let it be litigated [not listed yet in the tracker]
Permitting ICE agents to search places of worship for illegal immigrants
Ban on transgender individuals serving in the military
https://www.justsecurity.org/107087/tracker-legal-challenges-trump-administration-actions/
Expect many more to be added in the near future.
Trump faces a Supreme Court that from its Chevron decision seems likely to limit rather than expend executive power
It's not so obvious right now because many legal cases are only just starting. So far he has only lost one, the Federal Funding Freeze, and there he withdrew the freeze. Even with that one it never got as far as the courts except for a temporary pause. But it’s clear that he knew it was going to fail in the courts.
We can expect Trump to lose many more cases like this. It’s just started. It takes a while to move from an executive order to actions that cases can be taken against - and some of them depend on actions by the executive against individuals and organizations before the court cases begin.
Then it will take a while for them to get to the Supreme Court.
However, the Supreme Court has ruled recently very clearly with Chevron that it thinks the executive, i.e. the president, has too much power. It limited the power of Biden to do new things by creative ways of working with the rules.
That ruling also limits what Trump can do in that way too.
That particular ruling doesn’t apply to these new cases.
But it does show that the current Conservative Supreme Court is not likely to support Trump in overreaches of executive power.
Trump won only 1 in 5 cases in lower courts at his high point - and is the only president to lose more than half his Supreme Court cases - nearly 2/3 of the more high profile cases
Trump is sure to continue his losing streak in his first term with a record low number of cases won in the Supreme Court and in lower courts.
Trump won only 1 in 20 cases in the lower courts early in his first term. This rose to 1 in 5 at the high point, but towards the end of his first term fell again.
Even in cases seen by Trump appointees, he lost most of the time. He won 36% of cases where a Trump appointee was the judge or in a district court with at least one Trump appointee. For previous administrations the win rate was 68% for the same calculation.
https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/524016-tired-of-winning-trumps-record-in-the-courts/
Trump has lost more than half the cases against him at the Supreme Court, the worst rate of any president since 1937. His win rate was 43.5%, compared to 52.4% for Obama who had the next worst record after Trump. Biden’s win rate in his 2021 term was 56.5%
Trump did even worse with high profile cases, losing 65% or nearly 2/3 of them.
. Trump administration had worst Supreme Court record since at least FDR years, study says
For more details see:
Trump will face a debt crisis within his first 100 days with a slim 220 : 215 House majority and 47 Republicans who have never voted for a bill that raised the debt limit
Trump will face a debt limit crisis within his first 100 days with 47 of his own party who will oppose any attempt to raise it further. He needs bridge building and Democrat support and good will to lift that limit.
He has a tiny 220 : 215 margin in the house which got reduced to 219 : 215 with the resignation of Mark Gaetz then to 218 : 215 with resignation of MIke Waltz appointed to cabinet and will go down to 217: 215 when Elise Stafenik resigns assuming the Senate confirms her as it surely will.
This means that any Republican along with all the Democrats can stop any bill in that so important first 100 days when he needs to get off to a strong start to his presidency.
Most bills can also be stopped in the Senate with fillibustering.
See:
He will also need Democrat help to raise the debt limit later this spring as he can count on at least 47 Republicans in the house to vote against any debt limit rise based on the ones that have always voted against raising the debt limit for any bill passed in Congress. 25 of them will just vote against any debt limit rise on principle not just for final bills but always.
TEXT ON GRAPHIC
Bloomberg Analysis
Trump’s big obstacle with his expensive promises such as deportation and border security
47 Republicans have always voted against debt limit rises
So he needs bipartisan support from Democrats for expensive projects
See: SECTION: Trump’s plan to bully Republicans into passing his big bill can’t work
His party in the House is very divided and one Democrat based on their in fighting in 2024 said they couldn't organize themselves to get out of a paper bag. They will find it very hard to pass anything without help of Democrats.
So how does Trump build on the higher approval rating a president has when elected and start bridge building? By fighting absolutely everyone even his own party
So what does he do by way of bridge building and making use of the higher approval rating a president typically has in his first 100 days?
First he started many high profile battles with his own party before he even was inaugurated with
the attempt to get the debt limit raised under Biden which could never succeed
the fight over his pick of leader of the Senate which he also lost,
his fights over the unsuitable cabinet picks,
attempts to force Congress to let him pick candidates while it is on holiday another battle he lost.
He has continued doing things his own party opposes e.g.
firing the independent Inspector General watchdogs which Senator Grassley is especially keen on.
This has little practical effect as their next in line will take over on a temporary way but sets him up for another potential legal battle and opposition within his own party.
Then he tried to
freeze funding in all Federal agencies - a pointless battle against the entire executive.
He orders the CDC to take down all pages that mention transgender. Ordered one of the most important health agencies in the USA and in the world to remove an entire field of medical science from their website!
Pauses all funding for US foreign aid under USAID for 90 days, then lets some of it back case by case, just to review to remove anything that is called DEIA or about transgender - what’s so urgent about that? Details here:
https://apnews.com/article/trump-usaid-foreign-aid-freeze-7d9c8cbcb241ec9a710feb8e883b9756
He does these things without any preparation. With that Federal Funding freeze, he didn't bother to prepare his team with answers to the most obvious question, what happens to Medicaid. His team couldn’t reply at first, and only explained later in the day that it's protected. That’s the only one he lost so far just because it’s early days yet.
Sent a letter to all Federal employees titled "fork in the road" which is the same title Elon Musk used for a letter where he ended up firing many Twitter employees.
They could resign just by answering with the one word “resign”. But this is not a title to inspire US federal employees to answer “resign”.
In Musk’s case, because they followed his instruction to leave voluntarily in response to his letter, they never got any compensation which they would if fired. They took Musk to the courts and lost.
Trump promised that if they resigned they would have a generous 9 months of pay. But will he deliver, especially with a debt crisis coming up in the near future?
He also did this without even letting the heads of the agencies know he was going to do it in advance.
Normally he’d have the civil service along iwth him working to help him achieve his plans at this stage. But instead they are afraid of losing their jobs, and some of the best ones may leave and they are likely to start court battles with him.
Started a very bizarre pointless fight with the Supreme Court by trying to end birthright citizenship with an executive order - the law in the USA that anyone born in the USA is automatically a citizen. It is written into the US Constitution and an 1898 Supreme Court case that has never been challenged supports the obvious interpretation of it.
This is another high profile battle he is bound to lose, essentially a kind of battle between the executive and the Supreme Court, the Supreme Court however decides how the US Constitution is interpreted and that can't be changed by an executive order.
This is also a pointless fight with the American people, not a campaign promise and few would want it removed.
Same also with the pointless fight over a funding freeze. He scared many in the American people with concerns that he'd cut off Medicaid just because he didn’t prepare his team to answer that question.
Then he suddenly put 25% tariffs in place without any warning to American businesses. General Motors is especially affected because many of their auto-parts are moved back and forth across borders with Canada and Mexico.
NY Times contacted several of the US auto companies for their reactions to the tariffs. Reactions ranged from almost no effect for Ford to General Motors as the most affected as 40% of its manufacturing is in Canada or Mexico with many parts on their way across the border at the time of the tariffs.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/01/business/economy/tariffs-trump-automakers-canada-mexico.html
He also put a sudden pause on renewables applications and grants which many companies relied on.
So he is now doing pointless fights with businesses, no consultation, not working with them first.
Republican businesses in states like Texas rely on that support more than Democrat states do even though none of the Republicans in the House voted for them. Texas is very strong on renewables. I go into that here:
It’s all like this. Dramatic sudden changes with no consulatation and no preparation.
Decided to change the name of the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America which has only 25% support in the public.
Also a pointless fight with the NBC and PBS which are like the BBC in the UK, publicly funded. The media would normally be boosting a new president. Why pick a fight with them?
Also, for some reason focusing strongly on more pointless battles focused on trans people which he can't win, because he is challenging rights established in Supreme Court cases which is likely 5 : 4 or 6 : 3 pro trans as in recognizing trans as covered by the word "sex" in sex discrimination.
For instance his declaration that the Federal government will only recognize two sexes, male and female. That means removing the X from the passports - which Biden added after a legal battle that started under Obama forced him to do it - he didn't want to do it because of the expense and complexity as of course he is pro trans. Well Trump is now trying to relitigate a battle that Biden lost. So this seems likely to be yet another pointless fight.
It's impossible to say for sure but there was a big swing from a 21 point advantage Republican to 4 point advantage to Democrat from November to January in a seat in the Iowa Senate. It's not a rerun of the same election as it is for a different Republican candidate as the Republican left the seat to become governor but it's a big swing for a change of candidate.
https://democrats.org/news/icymi-democrats-flip-trump-21-iowa-senate-seat/
This may be a first sign of the negative effect on the re-election chances of Republican legislators in the mid-terms in 2026, because of all this bizarre stuff Trump is doing.
And he’s doing pointless battles with allies and neighbours: Canada, Mexico, Panama, even Denmark. And then by cutting of foreign aid for 90 days with USAID he also leads to lots of uncertainty in weaker economies, some wondering whether to work more with the US or with China. All just so that his team can review whether they are implementing his executive order on removing any programs with Diversity, Equity and Inclusion or anything involving transgender.
Why pause funding for 90 days for that, and risk countries shifting to China as their closer friend than the US? What is so urgent that it needs to be sorted otu within 90 days? It makes no sense and is another pointless battle that never needed to happen.
His change for DEIA is mainly a rebranding anyway - if they call it “merit based appointments” and continue otherwise as before then it’s all good for him.
Pointless battles with everyone - his own party - businesses - Congress - neighbouring country - the media - etc
As you see he's picking pointless political battles he can't win or is near certain to lose with
his own party
the media
the judges and supreme court
the executive and all federal agencies [his own branch of government which he heads]
Congress
the American people
businesses [normally strongly supported by Republicans]
the neighbouring countries of Canada and Mexico
all the countries that USAID supplies aid to
with Denmark of all places
This fills the news. But it is all just noise.
None of it achieves anything.
At some point the legal cases of his first executive orders will be over, the noise calm down - and what next? - he’ll have an impossible Congress to do anything except the blandest bipartisan bills
Once the noise is over he faces an impossibly small margin in the House, a Senate is divided, a precedent of many Republican legislators who already voted against him and a debt limit battle in March which he can't get through without Democrat support
He will not be able to do anything that costs money without support from Congress apart from moving a few billion dollars around through declaring a national emergency. He can't do mass deportation, would be too expensive. His billionaire friends aren't going to pay either.
Main area he can expect success - foreign policy - where he is far more free to make his own decisions and seems to have a knack for unorthodox deal making
About the only area where he can expect some success for his own objectives is in foreign policy and achieving peace in Gaza Strip and Ukraine.
The president has far more leeway with foreign policy.
There is no risk of a world war or nuclear war. And he is a president who despite all his bluster does seem to have something of a knack for international negotiations in an unorthodox way.
Domestically there are many still want to give him the benefit of the doubt - he has a lot of support and charisma - but he continues to spend it in this bizarre and pointless way
Domestically he has a lot of charisma and many who do still want to give him the benefit of the doubt.
But he is spending that fast in a pointless way and seems to h ave learnt nothing from the first term. Indeed he is doing even more pointless battles than in his first term, far faster, and far LESS prepared for them than in his first term.
https://san.com/cc/house-republicans-majority-just-got-smaller-with-waltzs-resignation/
Well that is what I see :).
Plan new megathread based on what Trump has done since inauguration
I plan to go through my big thread I did before inauguration day and update it based on what happened since then.
At least that’s the plan - will see how it works out.
Meanwhile you might find it helps to look over some of it.
Plus try searching the list of debunks for “Trump” here: : List of articles in my Debunking Doomsday blog to date
SEE ALSO
I have a long list of my new Trump debunks at the end of this page:
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SEARCH LIST OF DEBUNKS
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CLICK HERE TO SEARCH: List of articles in my Debunking Doomsday blog to date
NEW SHORT DEBUNKS
I do many more fact checks and debunks on our facebook group than I could ever write up as blog posts. They are shorter and less polished but there is a good chance you may find a short debunk for some recent concern.
See Latest short debunks for new short debunks
I also do tweets about them. I also tweet the debunks and short debunks to my Blue Sky page here:
Then on the Doomsday Debunked wiki, see my Short Debunks page which is a single page of all the earlier short debunks in one page.
I do the short debunks more often but they are less polished - they are copies of my longer replies to scared people in the Facebook group.rough Ukraine and will do so no matter what its allies do to support Ukraine.
TIPS FOR DEALING WITH DOOMSDAY FEARS
If suicidal or helping someone suicidal see my:
BLOG: Supporting someone who is suicidal
If you have got scared by any of this, health professionals can help. Many of those affected do get help and find it makes a big difference.
They can’t do fact checking, don’t expect that of them. But they can do a huge amount to help with the panic, anxiety, maladaptive responses to fear and so on.
Also do remember that therapy is not like physical medicine. The only way a therapist can diagnose or indeed treat you is by talking to you and listening to you. If this dialogue isn’t working for whatever reason do remember you can always ask to change to another therapist and it doesn’t reflect badly on your current therapist to do this.
Also check out my Seven tips for dealing with doomsday fears based on things that help those scared, including a section about ways that health professionals can help you.
I know that sadly many of the people we help can’t access therapy for one reason or another - usually long waiting lists or the costs.
There is much you can do to help yourself. As well as those seven tips, see my:
BLOG: Breathe in and out slowly and deeply and other ways to calm a panic attack
BLOG: Tips from CBT
— might help some of you to deal with doomsday anxieties