Trump won’t be able to pass anything except blandest partisan laws or bipartisan with Democrats - with only single digit majority in House and 47 Democrats can filibuster to stop most laws in Senate
Trump won’t be able to pass anything except blandest partisan laws or bipartisan with Democrats - with only single digit majority in House and 47 Democrats can filibuster to stop most laws in Senate
I appreciate your thorough debunking. Your comments about him being a change agent are right on. It very well could be that whatever stupidity he engages in will help summon a better world through no fault of his own.
My biggest concern is that, despite significant structural limitations, he can still do a lot of damage. With the GOP beholden to him politically, I would not expect much oversight from Congress. We've relied on the basic human decency of past leaders as a check on abuse of power. From what I have seen and heard trump say and do, he is morally bankrupt. He has no guiding principles except self-enrichemnt and aggrandizement. No news filters necessary. Just listen and watch the guy. Many people will be hurt when he starts breaking things or dealing with novel situations from a place of profound ignorance and lack of humility. Just like with COVID, a majority of those hurt could be his supporters. Progress tends to be paid for with blood.
I'd like to hear your take on the areas where the limitations of the office won't work.
As I say here I don't think he'll achieve anything far right in Congress. It's not so much oversight - it is permission. For anything that involves funding or a law change he needs Congress to suport it. His border security, Mexican wall, and his deportation plans are all very expensive.
Of his big plans about the only one he can do through presidential order are the tariffs by declaring a national security issue that he claims can only be solved through 5 to 10% tariffs on all countries and 60% tariffs on China. At this point it is getting rather far-fetched and it will certainly be challenged and it is possible that this time the Supreme Court decides against him.
I plan a new article about the tariffs and the effects they would have on GDP, inflation and prices (modest not huge but the opposite direction of where we want to be going) and whether the courts can stop them.
Most of the excesses will be stopped lower down by his generals, public servants, police, national guards, refusing illegal orders and by his orders being challenged in the courts.
I go into many of the main concerns in my companion to this:
BLOG:Many things to restrain what Trump can do in USA and to insulate NATO from what he can do to affect Europe - and the US economy is strong already so he has a fair bit of leeway for making mistakes
Latest from the House races looks like a majority of about 5. 12 races yet to call. Half seem to be going for Republicans or about 6 of them. Half for Democrats. Some could still swap. But all more than 70% counted. Several close to declaring. The Republicans have 217 seats and one more and they will get the house. But if half these remaining seats go to Dems they end at 223 seats and their majority will be only 5 seats.
Meanwhile Trump will take New York Republican Elise Stefanik and Florida's Mike Waltz out of the House for the Cabinet which will reduce that majority to 3 seats for the couple of months or so until they get a replacement.
Biden quipped that getting the inflation reduction act past was like trying to get 50 presidents to agree. By that he meant ordinary sensible presidents like Biden himself.
A small renege group of 20 Trump MAGA republicans delight in taking a wrecking ball to the normal processes of government and fight with everyone - they will make their work extremely hard with a single digit House majority assuming they do get the majority in the House that now seems near certain with only 2 seats left to reach it - while the Democrats need 11 seats to reach it.
Trump may be able to bully ordinary folk but can he bully more than 10 and probably 15 wannabe Trump clones imitating his way of doing things in the House?
Not only something as far right and extreme as defunding public education which surely ALL moderate Republicans will oppose. It will be hard to achieve anything much because of those rebels who don't play nicely.
This is a transcript from Congresswoman Schultz. She is a democrat who has experience trying to work with the Republicans in the last Congress and she says "the Republicans in the House of Representatives have not been able to organize their way out of a paper bag. " She also says " the electorate will need our votes to do that because they have a very large group of Freedom Caucus Maga extremists who don't want to do those things and want government to be broken. ".
TRANSCRIPT STARTS
Congresswoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz. BBC News America 11/11/2024
Q. You mentioned working across the aisle. What avenues do you see for bipartisan cooperation with the second Trump administration going forward.
A. Well there's a few ways this could play out. One is that the Republicans in the House of Representatives have not been able to organize their way out of a paper bag.
The only reason that most major legislation passed is because Democrats provided the votes and the 118th Congress passed it under Hakeen Jeffries' leadership.
And whether it is making sure government doesn't shut down, and passing a budget or lifting the debt ceiling or other major legislation, the electorate will need our votes to do that because they have a very large group of Freedom Caucus Maga extremists who don't want to do those things and want government to be broken.
The other way is that we can sit down and reach across the aisle and try to find some common ground. That will be challenging but I know that we have the majority of our caucus on our side of the aisle that are prepared to do that and we'll see, should the Republican majority if there is one wants to meet us in the middle or wants to be team extreme as they have been over the last several years.
END TRANSCRIPT
They will find it hard to pass anything on border security, or budgets, or any funding for deporting illegal immigrants or funding for the wall with Mexico without Democrat support in the House.
This is from the current administration:
QUOTE STARTS
Members of the far-right Freedom Caucus and other right-wing House members see themselves as courageously doing the people’s work. They believe they are reining in government and taking on what they call a corrupt “uniparty” of Republicans and Democrats who conspire with rich donors and special interests to bankrupt the nation and beat down the average American.
Democrats consider them dangerous, out-of-control radicals, and even some of their Republican colleagues regard them as misguided outliers determined to impose their views on their party and the nation. But neither has found a way to overcome their guerrilla tactics, which include jettisoning decades of tradition and openly defying their own party on the House floor.
“The problem is we are being dragged around by 20 people when 200 of us are in agreement,” said Representative Mike Simpson, Republican of Idaho and a senior member of the Appropriations Committee. “As long as we let those 20 drag us around, we are going to get these kinds of results. At some point in time, you’ve got to say, ‘We’re done.’”
Obama, Clinton, Trump, Biden all got a trifecta when elected. Only Bush didn't but then he had a trifecta from years 3 to 6 inclusive. That is normal and doesn't give a president superpowers especially when the margin is so small and they have 20 Freedom Caucus MAGA rebels that make it impossible for them to organize their way out of a paper bag. without Democrat help.
They will get legislation passed. Government will continue. But it will be almost all bipartisan and very little by way of Republican priorities almost certainly this time around.
All he can do of that far-right type are executive orders which will be reversed in 2029 and can't do much that way.
And remember that the police, National Guard, military and FDA officials all swear an oath to protect the US Constitution above all not Trump. They only obey the president in as far as he gives them legal orders and only the current president as appointed under the constitution.
So in short I think the result of removing the more sensible people around him in his first term is he will try to do lots of impossible things based on advisors with no experience of government. He'll be stopped by legal action, by public servants, soldiers, police and national guards refusing illegal orders and by the impossibility of getting anything through Congress.
He will then have to fire his new advisors or they will turn against him as in his first term - start of loyal but then turn disloyal as he fires them or turns against them himself.
Then he'll be back to square one as in his first admin but without those good advisors any more to tell him what to do and it will be ahrd to get good advisors this time around with that history.
Leading to an ineffectual presidency and much of the legislation passed bipartisan with the Democrats doing a lot of the behind the scenes organizing and suggesting becua esof the disarray amongst the Republicans. Then surely lose the House and possibly the Senate in 2026.
That seems most likely anyway.
That is what re the limitations of his approach. He and his team simply don't understand how to govern and will do impossible things or try to and be stopped by the courts and by others who do understand the constitution refusing to obey illegal orders.
I appreciate your thorough debunking. Your comments about him being a change agent are right on. It very well could be that whatever stupidity he engages in will help summon a better world through no fault of his own.
My biggest concern is that, despite significant structural limitations, he can still do a lot of damage. With the GOP beholden to him politically, I would not expect much oversight from Congress. We've relied on the basic human decency of past leaders as a check on abuse of power. From what I have seen and heard trump say and do, he is morally bankrupt. He has no guiding principles except self-enrichemnt and aggrandizement. No news filters necessary. Just listen and watch the guy. Many people will be hurt when he starts breaking things or dealing with novel situations from a place of profound ignorance and lack of humility. Just like with COVID, a majority of those hurt could be his supporters. Progress tends to be paid for with blood.
I'd like to hear your take on the areas where the limitations of the office won't work.
As I say here I don't think he'll achieve anything far right in Congress. It's not so much oversight - it is permission. For anything that involves funding or a law change he needs Congress to suport it. His border security, Mexican wall, and his deportation plans are all very expensive.
Of his big plans about the only one he can do through presidential order are the tariffs by declaring a national security issue that he claims can only be solved through 5 to 10% tariffs on all countries and 60% tariffs on China. At this point it is getting rather far-fetched and it will certainly be challenged and it is possible that this time the Supreme Court decides against him.
I plan a new article about the tariffs and the effects they would have on GDP, inflation and prices (modest not huge but the opposite direction of where we want to be going) and whether the courts can stop them.
Most of the excesses will be stopped lower down by his generals, public servants, police, national guards, refusing illegal orders and by his orders being challenged in the courts.
I go into many of the main concerns in my companion to this:
BLOG:Many things to restrain what Trump can do in USA and to insulate NATO from what he can do to affect Europe - and the US economy is strong already so he has a fair bit of leeway for making mistakes
https://robertinventor.substack.com/p/many-things-to-restrain-what-trump#%C2%A7trump-cant-start-a-world-war-is-not-a-hawk-and-cant-order-a-general-to-go-against-the-us-constitution
Latest from the House races looks like a majority of about 5. 12 races yet to call. Half seem to be going for Republicans or about 6 of them. Half for Democrats. Some could still swap. But all more than 70% counted. Several close to declaring. The Republicans have 217 seats and one more and they will get the house. But if half these remaining seats go to Dems they end at 223 seats and their majority will be only 5 seats.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/results/2024/11/05/house/#key-races (https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/results/2024/11/05/house/#key-races)
Meanwhile Trump will take New York Republican Elise Stefanik and Florida's Mike Waltz out of the House for the Cabinet which will reduce that majority to 3 seats for the couple of months or so until they get a replacement.
Trump transition live updates: Trump gives Elon Musk and Fox News host key jobs as he prepares for second term (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cnvjr42yq39t?post=asset%3A88e01bf9-3835-4522-a8fe-a11c1e276c02#post)
Biden quipped that getting the inflation reduction act past was like trying to get 50 presidents to agree. By that he meant ordinary sensible presidents like Biden himself.
A small renege group of 20 Trump MAGA republicans delight in taking a wrecking ball to the normal processes of government and fight with everyone - they will make their work extremely hard with a single digit House majority assuming they do get the majority in the House that now seems near certain with only 2 seats left to reach it - while the Democrats need 11 seats to reach it.
Trump may be able to bully ordinary folk but can he bully more than 10 and probably 15 wannabe Trump clones imitating his way of doing things in the House?
Not only something as far right and extreme as defunding public education which surely ALL moderate Republicans will oppose. It will be hard to achieve anything much because of those rebels who don't play nicely.
This is a transcript from Congresswoman Schultz. She is a democrat who has experience trying to work with the Republicans in the last Congress and she says "the Republicans in the House of Representatives have not been able to organize their way out of a paper bag. " She also says " the electorate will need our votes to do that because they have a very large group of Freedom Caucus Maga extremists who don't want to do those things and want government to be broken. ".
TRANSCRIPT STARTS
Congresswoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz. BBC News America 11/11/2024
Q. You mentioned working across the aisle. What avenues do you see for bipartisan cooperation with the second Trump administration going forward.
A. Well there's a few ways this could play out. One is that the Republicans in the House of Representatives have not been able to organize their way out of a paper bag.
The only reason that most major legislation passed is because Democrats provided the votes and the 118th Congress passed it under Hakeen Jeffries' leadership.
And whether it is making sure government doesn't shut down, and passing a budget or lifting the debt ceiling or other major legislation, the electorate will need our votes to do that because they have a very large group of Freedom Caucus Maga extremists who don't want to do those things and want government to be broken.
The other way is that we can sit down and reach across the aisle and try to find some common ground. That will be challenging but I know that we have the majority of our caucus on our side of the aisle that are prepared to do that and we'll see, should the Republican majority if there is one wants to meet us in the middle or wants to be team extreme as they have been over the last several years.
END TRANSCRIPT
They will find it hard to pass anything on border security, or budgets, or any funding for deporting illegal immigrants or funding for the wall with Mexico without Democrat support in the House.
This is from the current administration:
QUOTE STARTS
Members of the far-right Freedom Caucus and other right-wing House members see themselves as courageously doing the people’s work. They believe they are reining in government and taking on what they call a corrupt “uniparty” of Republicans and Democrats who conspire with rich donors and special interests to bankrupt the nation and beat down the average American.
Democrats consider them dangerous, out-of-control radicals, and even some of their Republican colleagues regard them as misguided outliers determined to impose their views on their party and the nation. But neither has found a way to overcome their guerrilla tactics, which include jettisoning decades of tradition and openly defying their own party on the House floor.
“The problem is we are being dragged around by 20 people when 200 of us are in agreement,” said Representative Mike Simpson, Republican of Idaho and a senior member of the Appropriations Committee. “As long as we let those 20 drag us around, we are going to get these kinds of results. At some point in time, you’ve got to say, ‘We’re done.’”
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/23/us/republicans-congress-freedom-caucus.html (https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/23/us/republicans-congress-freedom-caucus.html)
Obama, Clinton, Trump, Biden all got a trifecta when elected. Only Bush didn't but then he had a trifecta from years 3 to 6 inclusive. That is normal and doesn't give a president superpowers especially when the margin is so small and they have 20 Freedom Caucus MAGA rebels that make it impossible for them to organize their way out of a paper bag. without Democrat help.
They will get legislation passed. Government will continue. But it will be almost all bipartisan and very little by way of Republican priorities almost certainly this time around.
All he can do of that far-right type are executive orders which will be reversed in 2029 and can't do much that way.
And remember that the police, National Guard, military and FDA officials all swear an oath to protect the US Constitution above all not Trump. They only obey the president in as far as he gives them legal orders and only the current president as appointed under the constitution.
So in short I think the result of removing the more sensible people around him in his first term is he will try to do lots of impossible things based on advisors with no experience of government. He'll be stopped by legal action, by public servants, soldiers, police and national guards refusing illegal orders and by the impossibility of getting anything through Congress.
He will then have to fire his new advisors or they will turn against him as in his first term - start of loyal but then turn disloyal as he fires them or turns against them himself.
Then he'll be back to square one as in his first admin but without those good advisors any more to tell him what to do and it will be ahrd to get good advisors this time around with that history.
Leading to an ineffectual presidency and much of the legislation passed bipartisan with the Democrats doing a lot of the behind the scenes organizing and suggesting becua esof the disarray amongst the Republicans. Then surely lose the House and possibly the Senate in 2026.
That seems most likely anyway.
That is what re the limitations of his approach. He and his team simply don't understand how to govern and will do impossible things or try to and be stopped by the courts and by others who do understand the constitution refusing to obey illegal orders.