Trump's Big Bill could help Democrats flip seats in mid-terms if correct about effects on Medicaid - parallel with Dem despair in 2017 after Hillary Clinton lost in 2016 but flipped 40 seats in 2018

I try to write this in as bipartisan way as I can. This is NOT campaigning for Democrats. This is to help people to realize votes do still matter and if the public don't like what the Republicans are doing they can and will vote against in a blue wave as in 2018.

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Of course if the Republicans are right the effects would be positive for everyone except fraudsters and similar, or so they say in their speeches. But what if the Democrats are right?

This is in response to various articles claiming that Democrats won’t be able to take advantage of the effects of Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill on Medicaid / SNAP in the mid terms because they have lost their way and don’t know what to do.

I use the parallel of the Democrats as they were in 2017, leading into the mid-terms in 2018 when the Democrats were just as dispirited and disorganized as today yet in 2018 they flipped 40 seats in the House. The House is easier to flip in the mid terms than the Senate and a party does NOT need such a focus / direction yet at that point as it isn’t trying to get a president elected.

So when you read a blog post or article suggesting this is impossible - it has to be possible because the Dems have already done it before.

First if you are worrying about the effect of these changes for you personally see my previous debunk here as that goes into the details of what the bill does:

First the House is VERY competitive right now.

Margin of only 3.

The Cook Report counts 10 tossup Democrat seats and 8 tossup Republican seats in the House for the mid-terms at present plus 1 lean Democrat held by a Republican.

https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-race-ratings

So the Dems have plenty of opportunities to pick up 3 seats which is all they need to flip the house once it is back to full strength at 220 : 215.

The Associated Press (slightly left leaning in US politics) did a poll of US adults, asking if the US is spending too much on Mediaid or SNAP.

Even Republican voters don’t agree with Trump and the Republican party majority vote here.

The majority of Democrats and independents say the government is spending too little. Republicans are more divided about whether they are spending too little, the right amount or too much. But it’s not a majority even for SNAP (the less popular program with Republicans in the poll).

I have converted their data into bar charts instead using Perplexity AI (which makes it okay to reproduce it)

Chart made with Perplexity https://www.perplexity.ai/search/what-is-the-copyright-situatio-eZDddd2LTf.yzwtIzyPyZA?2=d&3=r&4=t&5=d&7=t&9=d#11

Using the data from AP: https://apnews.com/article/poll-government-spending-medicare-medicaid-social-security-0ccb0538c06d715b43bbbcaa4a1348cf

Also, Trump did promise several times he wouldn’t cut Medicaid except for waste, fraud and abuse. When asked by reporters he said he was sure that the bill passed in the Senate will only stop funding for waste fraud and abuse and didn’t believe the numbers that the reporter quoted.

Well we’ll see what happens.

If the Democrats are right and the effects are negative for many constituents, I don’t think it makes sense AT ALL to say the Democrats have to wait until they have a more focused approach for their presidential campaign for 2028 to pick up seats in 2026.

We can test this by going back to 2018 and the mid terms then, a very similar situation.

Democrats in despair in 2017-8 after Hillary Clinton’s loss - and no idea where to go next, much like today

Hillary Clinton had lost to Trump in 2016 and there was nobody to replace her in 2018 She didn't lose as much as Kamala Harris did but she did lose and it was a similar situation, a big disappointment for the Democrats after a hard fought campaign. Exhausted as the losing party usually is after an election.

The Democrats were just as in disarray in 2017 running into the 2018 midterms. They had no idea how they would run their 2020 campaign.

I was following what was happening in US politics quite closely back then and remember how despairing they were.

For those who are too young to remember or weren’t interested in politics back then, or who have just forgotten because so much happened in between, here is a quote from just after they lost the election

QUOTE STARTS

As they struggled through the wreckage of one of their worst election nights in memory, Democrats faced a brutal reckoning over how the party, soon to be out of power on both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue, can regain relevance.

Democrats went into Tuesday’s balloting presuming that they would win the presidency for a third time in a row, gain a majority in the U.S. Senate and, if everything went well, cut into Republicans’ congressional margins, too.

Nothing went well.

“That’s got to be a huge wake-up call for the inside-the-Beltway Democratic establishment. They fundamentally failed,” said Democratic pollster Ben Tulchin, who worked for Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders’ presidential campaign this year.

Democrats already seemed to be split over how to regroup. Some argued for a more aggressive effort to move the party to the left, hoping to drive up turnout among younger and minority voters. Others stressed a need to reach out to the disaffected working-class white voters who so conspicuously deserted the party this year.

https://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-clinton-democrats-20161109-story.html

It was especially difficult for them because the polls seemed good, and they were expecting a historic victory, the first woman president, the glass ceiling shattered.

From Hillary Clinton’s concession speech:

QUOTE STARTS

I have, as Tim said, spent my entire adult life fighting for what I believe in. I’ve had successes and I’ve had setbacks. Sometimes, really painful ones. Many of you are at the beginning of your professional public and political careers. You will have successes and setbacks, too.

This loss hurts, but please never stop believing that fighting for what’s right is worth it.

And to all the women, and especially the young women, who put their faith in this campaign and in me, I want you to know that nothing has made me prouder than to be your champion.

(APPLAUSE)

Now, I – I know – I know we have still not shattered that highest and hardest glass ceiling, but some day someone will and hopefully sooner than we might think right now.

https://edition.cnn.com/2016/11/09/politics/hillary-clinton-concession-speech

One study based on interviews conducted a few months after the election loss found 1 in 4 of students in a large university had clinically significant symptoms of event related trauma about the election failure

https://www.sfsustarlab.com/uploads/6/0/4/2/60428137/hagan_sladek_2018.pdf

Here is an example video from August 2018

I’m sure there are many more but they are hard to find now searching for them eight years later.

They had no idea what to do. They’d been wiped out in many of the Senate races too. And though it was a close race it made it even more confusing, should they follow the same path as before? Or was Bernie Sanders right, who was already hugely popular back then, should they shift way to the left?

They hadn’t sorted that out by the mid-terms. Yet they managed to pick up not just a few seats but 40 seats in the House, in a “blue wave”, a big boost of confidence.

Perplexity AI found many more cites from back then, though bear in mind it’s a chatbot and it doesn’t necessarily summarizes them correctly, but its a good way of finding sources.

https://www.perplexity.ai/search/video-from-around-this-time-in-Su3WgQi0R6KjC7lAzDtaOg

Dems picked up 40 seats in the mid terms though Republicans won a seat in the Senate

Yet they picked up 40 seats in the House in the mid-terms in 2018. Back then it was at least partly because of Trump’s many failed attempts to overturn Obamacare in 2017 before finally giving up and passing the tax cuts instead.

https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_2018

So that’s a rather similar situation, focus on health issues except this time he has actually done significant health finance cuts.

The Senate seems to work differently from the House. In 2018 INCREASED his lead in the Senate from 51 seats to 53.

https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_elections,_2018

But the House elections are especially sensitive to local issues because each representative is for a district and if they have been harmed by Medicaid cuts say, or SNAP then the local representative can run on that.

It's true the Democrats don't yet have a leader to rally around. The obvious one is Kamala Harris but after losing in 2024 after spending so much on the election - it will be difficult for her to run again.

But mid-terms in the House are a time when protest elections can work well.

The mid-terms elections are for representatives in the House - and for a third of the Senate.

Democrats gained one seat in the House in 2024 while losing the presidency

The House went the other way from the presidencey in 2024 too. The Democrats gained one seat in the House.

Going into the 2024 election the Republicans had a majority of 220 (with 1 Republican left early) to Democrats 212 (with 2 died)

So that was in effect 221 to 214

This changed to 220 : 215.

So the Democrats won an extra seat in 2024.

https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_2024

That was pretty good going - considering how well Trump did in the presidential elections.

Special elections in the House for Republicans who leave office (e.g. retired / take another job / died)

Then there are the special elections. Similar to the UK byelections.

I did this table with Perplexity AI. Based on data I copied from Wikipedia.

https://www.perplexity.ai/search/do-a-chart-exactly-like-this-b-5z._jxhpRGKiwdeRd_gr0w#8

[Perplexity AI does tables like this accurately unlike most other chatbots and does the maths correctly - the averages will be correct too - it has internally accurate maths and for complicated things it runs python scripts.]

As you can see the Dems on average win 1 seat per cycle in special elections, but they won 3 in 2008 and 2018.

If they repeat that this time, 3 seats is just enough to flip the House before 2026

Even if they just win 1 seat it would mean that it changes to 219 : 216 which means that if 2 Republicans vote against a measure, or 1 against and 1 present it is enough to stop any legislation.

The Republicans couldn’t have passed the One Big Beautiful Bill with a 2 seat margin in the House with Massie and Fitzpatrick voting against.

Next special election Mark Green - normally a very safe seat but the margin shift for the other two special elections this year suggest it could be vulnerable

The first special election to come up is Mark Green who said he'd leave the House after this vote https://ballotpedia.org/Tennessee's_7th_Congressional_District_election,_2024

He had a majority of 21.5

59.5 - 38

Tennessee's 7th Congressional District election, 2024

The Democrats three who died were in very safe Democrat seats.

But the two Republican special elections which have already been held had a rather dramatic a shift to Democrat of 17 for Matt Gaetz's replacement Jimmy Patronis (R+32 to R+15) and 19 Michael Waltz's replacement Randy Fine (R+33 to R+14).

This didn’t hit the news much since the Republicans retained the seat but the margin shift was rather striking even for special elections where Dems normally do well.

https://ballotpedia.org/Special_elections_to_the_119th_United_States_Congress_(2025-2026)

That makes a 21.5 shift not impossible. That is like Michael Waltz shifted by an extra 2.5%.

Only 7% of adults in Mark Green’s district get MEDICAID - and the effects will only be on a fraction of adults.

Still it could be an extra few % or so vote swing from it plus other effects.

https://ccf.georgetown.edu/2024/12/11/medicaid-chip-coverage-in-tennessee-congressional-districts-2023/

Not saying this particular seat will flip or likely will flip. It's an outside chance. But there will be other special elections, some may be closer than that and if so there may be a flip or several in the next couple of years.

It is difficult being a Republican in the House at present because Trump is bullying them so much and threatening to primary them. That means to fund a rival and cut off the Republican funding from them when in the primaries when the Republcan party chooses who to pick for the election campaign.

As far as I can tell no US president has ever previously threatened directly to primary legislators for voting against bills he wants to pass in Congress. It is a new thing in US politics.

Lisa Murkowski, Senator from Alaska about how they are all afraid because “retaliation is real and that is not right” (she doesn’t say specifically about Trump but about how she and others are often anxious about speaking their own mind)

Here is how the moderate Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski put it:

TRANSCRIPT:

Lisa Murkowski (Republican Senator from Alaska) Part of what I have been doing with my team is just trying to listen as carefully as I can to to what is happening and how it is happening and the impacts that it is having on the ground.

And we're honest upfront in saying we don't have all the answers but we're trying to unlock at at different opportunities and in different ways as much as we can.

And it is as hard as anything that I have been engaged in in the 20 plus years I've been in the Senate

Q. What do you have to say to people who are afraid? Or who represent people who are afraid?

We are all afraid. Okay. Honest statement.

But we are in a time and a place where I don't know I have not been here before

And I'll tell you I'm often times very anxious myself about about using my voice because retaliation is real and that's not right.

But that's what you've asked me to do

And so I'm going to use my voice to the best of my ability And sometimes it will be viewed in a way that well that's pretty confrontational.

And other times it's going to be using my mother's charm that I I learned as a young girl and in direct communication with those that I have made relationships with aand able to affect some some change that way.

And I've got to figure out how I can do my best to help the many who are so anxious and are so afraid.

This is not a long term stable situation in a democracy, that is very clear. Right now it’s hard for them to speak up. But it should get easier as they work together and find ways to speak their own mind.

Trump is trying to intimidate them to get them all in line, and with this bill he succeeded, only two of them voted against him, Thomas Massie and Brian Fitzpatrick.

But we can expect more of this as time goes on.

Republicans especially often retire from Congress to get other jobs e.g. in industry. Some might retire a bit earlier than they would have otherwise because they just are getting tired of not being able to speak their own mind in the House as freely as they used to. Not because of the debates and infighting. Because they have to just shut up on various topics they care about or be primaried.

They may decide “Okay I’ll just retire, better than to be forced out in a primary”.

Then some of those who leave might be in marginal seats, and if so some of the seats might flip in special elections which usually favour Dems.

Bullying insulates Trump from the problems his party faces at the level of representatives because they know their own districts

As far as I know no other president has ever threatened to primary legislators who vote against them.

Biden got his inflation reduction act across the line not by bullying but by talking to everyone until eventually he found a solution everyone agreed to.

This bullying approach - means it's also kind of fragile. It insulates him from problems with his bill.

The legislators were telling him the public in their districts won't like this or that aspect of his Big Bill, and instead of listening to them like any previous president Republican or Democrat he said to just vote for the bill or he'd primary them.

This means he may well lose seats because representatives are elected to raise the concerns of their constituency - voters may well vote for a Democrat contender just because they want a representative who can speak freely in the House to raise their concerns with any measure - only Brian Fitzpatrick and Thomas Massie pass this test

In a democracy the end result of bullying legislators like that is that you lose seats.

The representatives know their districts and Trump doesn't. So he should listen to them and let them talk and discuss the bill. It puts him out of touch with the base and that makes the Republicans vulnerable.

This happens on a longer timescale - we may see it in the special elections or in the mid terms.

Or possibly other times before then. He already has 3 rebels in the Senate with another (Lisa Murkowski) nearly joined in. And 2 in the House.

One more in the Senate or 2 more in the House and he can't get things through.

If the representatives don't stand up to him, remember it's their job as representatives to raise the concerns of the electorate.

A representative who doesn't raise constituency concerns because Trump threatens to primary them if they do isn't doing his or her job. So they may vote in a Democrat just because they know Democrat representatives are free to speak their own minds and to raise concerns that may be unpopular with the president, whether the president is Democrat or Republican.

The Republican Brian Fitzpatrick did raise his constituency's concerns and he will likely get a boost in the mid-terms for standing up to Trump even though the bill passed because none of the other moderates joined him.

Similarly also for Thomas Massie for his constituency for raising their concerns about raising the debt limit assuming his voters vote him in due to similar concerns.

Not a great baseline to aim for - approval rating for 2017-8

Sometimes people compare Trump’s approval rating with his rating in 2017-8. But that’s not a great baseline to aim for. Rememer, that’s the baseline that lost him 40 seats in the mid term blue wave.

Budget for 2025-6 - Trump’s only chance for major cuts in NOAA, NASA, NSF etc while he also wants a major BOOST in the defence budget - but this time he can be filibustered

Also there's another point coming up, the budget for 2025-6. That is when Trump wants to put in major cuts of NOAA, NASA, NSF etc. But the Democrats can filibuster it unless he tries legal impoundment see next section.

If he doesn't do that, his September budget will be filibustered by the Dems - back in spring they didn't filibuster because Musk wanted a government shutdown to motivate cuts to staffing. But that's not the dynamic any more with Musk gone and Trump won't want a government shutdown in September (partial shutdown of non essential services).

So then he will need to redo the same budget as 2024-5 in 2025-6 which means same $ amount slight reduction in funding.

This is for defense too. Trump wants to increase defense spending but he can't without support of the Dems who will surely want concessions and this time he can't do it with Republicans alone (assuming the legal impoundment doesn't work)

Authorized impoundment - legal but tricky and a president only gets one go at it ever for each budget item

He may try to do the authorized impoundment approach which needs a simple majority in both houses but unlike reconciliation, if you fail with authorized reconciliation on your first try as a president, you can never do it again for that particular budget item. That’s not just for that legislative year or session - it is for his entire time as president in the future. He can only do it for as long as it succeeds.

So he has to be very sure to try that. Or try it with something unimportant to him first.

He could try to push through legal impoundment for everything but he'd hit a lot of resistance for some things e..g his cuts for NASA etc.

Either of those, failures at legal impoundment, or not getting the budget through for 2025-6, would make him seem weaker and make it easier for Legislators to speak up against him.

What happens if Dems control the House - many possibilities open up for investigation, calling witnesses

If the Dems do control the House after the mid terms or before, they control all the House committees too since by convention the committees have to have the same majority as the House as near as possible % wise. If it is a very narrow majority in the House than a 1 seat majority in every committee.

Once Dems control the committees in the House, they can start doing subpoenas which means forcing witnesses to testify and conduct investigations of the executive like they did in 2018 - 2020 which may well turn up things Trump's admin is not doing properly.

Start impeachment of Trump or JFK or other cabinet officials if they find enough information to support it

They can set impeachment investigations into motion not just for Trump but for others also e.g. they could investigate RFK and if the evidence is sufficient, they could impeach him.

Dems already wanted to investigate his handling of avian flu where his policy is to let it spread through the flocks not a recommended approach.

https://oversightdemocrats.house.gov/news/press-releases/subcommittee-democrats-launch-investigation-secretary-robert-f-kennedy-jrs

And filed a Senate resolution of disapproval.

https://www.alsobrooks.senate.gov/press-releases/alsobrooks-files-senate-resolution-of-disapproval-rfk-in-violation-of-his-constitutional-oath-for-immediate-release/

So - a Dem majority House might well launch investigations into RFK's handling of HHS and call witnesses and depending on what they find might call for him to resign or try to impeach him.

And of course there's the wild card if Trump himself does something impeachable or already has but it's not been uncovered yet.

Refuse to bring most bills to the floor and bring their own bills instead

They can also refuse to bring bills to the floor at all if they want to. There are some the speaker must bring to the floor but most are optional.

It also becomes impossible for Trump to use reconciliation any more. They can negotiate with Trump about whether to let a bill through or not.

They can also pass bills in the House which they know won't get anywhere but stimulate public debate.

If Dems win the midterms that prepares for the 2028 campaign

So the Dems winning mid terms is preparation for the 2028 elections. And whoever comes after Trump wouldn't have the incumbent advantage and by 2028 Harris's loss in 2024 will be long forgotten just as Clinton's loss in 2016 was long forgotten by 2020.

With Trump’s campaign in 2024, he had a possibly unique ability to appeal to the far right and to moderates at the same time and to appeal to latinos and African Americans more than is usual for a Republican president. He also got young men to turn out to vote for him, they usually don’t get interested enough to vote, and had Musk's enthusiastic support back then too.

Perhaps others could appeal to the same range of voters, but it seems hard for another Republican to emulate.

So in short - the US is a free democracy, and it is up to the voters and the Democrats have as good a chance of winning the mid terms in 2026 as in any year especially with such a narrow margin.

I am NOT predicting that they will win. It depends on what happens between now and then, on the campaign and on the choices of millions of voters on the day itself. It is just to help people to see that the future is open, many possibilities. And for those who find Trump’s term difficult - then it ends on Jan 20th, 2029 and after that comes the next president whoever it is - and whether Democrat or Republican, may have a very different style and approach.

Why are so many more Democrats dying in the House than Republicans - the last 7 to die were all Democrats? It’s because though the average is the same for both parties there are FAR more elderly Democrats and FAR MORE youthful Democrats

This is a rather strange seeming anomaly that some people worry about - but it’s not surprising when you look at it a bit closer. It’s to do with understanding the difference between the average and the spread of a population.

I covered it in an earlier post and thought it might be worth repeating to draw attention to any who missed it. Not directly relevant to the rest of this post except to explain why Republican special elections tend to come through retiring / getting another job while Democrat special elections tend to come through dying.

The bill would have passed anyway - but three Democrats had died making the margin

220 : 212.

If those Democrats hadn’t died it would be 220 : 215. Even then though with two votes against it would have been 218 : 217 and the bill would have got through.

Anway - why do so many Democrats die?

The last 8 deaths in the House have all been of Democrats.

Let’s just look at the most elderly members of the House of Representatives. Two thirds of Representatives over 70 are Democrats and 80% of those over 80 are Democrats.

Democrats (Ages 70 and Above):

1. Grace F. Napolitano – 86 (CA-31)

2. Eleanor Holmes Norton – 85 (DC-AL)

3. Bill Pascrell Jr. – 85 (NJ-09)

4. Maxine Waters – 84 (CA-43)

5. Steny H. Hoyer – 83 (MD-05)

6. James E. Clyburn – 82 (SC-06)

7. Nancy Pelosi – 82 (CA-11)

8. Danny K. Davis – 81 (IL-07)

9. Anna G. Eshoo – 80 (CA-16)

10. Frederica S. Wilson – 80 (FL-24)

11. Rosa DeLauro – 79 (CT-03)

12. Doris Matsui – 78 (CA-07)

13. Jan Schakowsky – 78 (IL-09)

14. Emanuel Cleaver II – 78 (MO-05)

15. David Scott – 77 (GA-13)

16. Bonnie Watson Coleman – 77 (NJ-12)

17. John Garamendi – 77 (CA-08)

18. Marcy Kaptur – 76 (OH-09)

19. Lloyd Doggett – 76 (TX-37)

20. Barbara Lee – 76 (CA-12)

21. Alma Adams – 76 (NC-12)

22. C.A. Dutch Ruppersberger – 76 (MD-02)

23. Al Green – 75 (TX-09)

24. Robert C. Scott – 75 (VA-03)

25. Sanford D. Bishop Jr. – 75 (GA-02)

26. Jerrold Nadler – 75 (NY-12)

27. Zoe Lofgren – 75 (CA-18)

28. Lois Frankel – 74 (FL-22)

29. Bennie Thompson – 74 (MS-02)

30. Earl Blumenauer – 74 (OR-03)

31. John B. Larson – 74 (CT-01)

32. Raul M. Grijalva – 74 (AZ-07)

33. Kweisi Mfume – 74 (MD-07)

34. Paul Tonko – 73 (NY-20)

35. Steve Cohen – 73 (TN-09)

36. Richard E. Neal – 73 (MA-01)

37. Sylvia R. Garcia – 72 (TX-29)

38. Dina Titus – 72 (NV-01)

39. Joyce Beatty – 72 (OH-03)

40. Gerald E. Connolly – 72 (VA-11)

41. Sheila Jackson Lee – 72 (TX-18)

42. Donald S. Beyer Jr. – 72 (VA-08)

43. Mike Thompson – 71 (CA-04)

44. Frank Pallone Jr. – 71 (NJ-06)

45. Gwen Moore – 71 (WI-04)

46. Jim Costa – 70 (CA-21)

47. William Keating – 70 (MA-09)

48. Julia Brownley – 70 (CA-26)

49. Mark DeSaulnier – 70 (CA-10)

50. Ed Case – 70 (HI-01)

Republicans (Ages 70 and Above):

1. Harold Rogers – 85 (KY-05)

2. John Carter – 81 (TX-31)

3. Virginia Foxx – 79 (NC-05)

4. Kay Granger – 79 (TX-12)

5. Jim Baird – 77 (IN-04)

6. Bill Posey – 75 (FL-08)

7. Aumua Amata Coleman Radewagen – 75 (AS-AL)

8. Joe Wilson – 75 (SC-02)

9. Jack Bergman – 75 (MI-01)

10. Mike Kelly – 74 (PA-16)

11. Brian Babin – 74 (TX-36)

12. Tom Cole – 73 (OK-04)

13. Roger Williams – 73 (TX-25)

14. Daniel Webster – 73 (FL-11)

15. Mike Simpson – 72 (ID-02)

16. Carol Miller – 72 (WV-01)

17. Michael C. Burgess – 72 (TX-26)

18. Vern Buchanan – 71 (FL-16)

19. Tim Walberg – 71 (MI-05)

20. Rick W. Allen – 71 (GA-12)

21. Burgess Owens – 71 (UT-04)

22. John Rutherford – 70 (FL-05)

23. Cliff Bentz – 70 (OR-02)

24. Blaine Luetkemeyer – 70 (MO-03)

Summary:

• Democrats over 70: 50

• Republicans over 70: 24

From Fiscal Note

https://fiscalnote.com/blog/how-old-118th-congress

The Democrats are slightly older in both chambers which is part of it, 58 in the House for Democrat and 56 for Republicans:

https://fiscalnote.com/blog/how-old-118th-congress

But the spread is far more important than the average age.

I got Perplexity AI to turn the data into this graphic - you can see clearly that the Democrat distribution has a broader spread which explains why so many Democrats rather than Republicans die.

https://www.perplexity.ai/search/order-this-list-with-all-the-o-lThL.yX1TYySLS14Fcpc.A#19

The Democrats have both the oldest and the youngest members of the House. The bottom three and top four bins are all dominated by Democrats while Republicans dominate most of the other bins or are roughly equally numbered.

See list of Representatives who died in office here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_Congress_members_who_died_in_office_(2000%E2%80%93present)

Here is a list with the Republicans labelled R1, R2 etc and Democrats as D1, D2 etc to make it easier to compare.

• 2000, R1, Herb Bateman

• 2000, D1, Bruce Vento

• 2000, D2, Julian Dixon

• 2001, D3, Norman Sisisky

• 2001, D4, Joe Moakley

• 2001, R2, Floyd Spence

• 2002, D5, Patsy Mink

• 2005, D6, Bob Matsui

• 2007, R3, Charlie Norwood

• 2007, D7, Juanita Millender-McDonald

• 2007, R4, Paul Gillmor

• 2007, R5, Jo Ann Davis

• 2007, D8, Julia Carson

• 2008, D9, Tom Lantos

• 2008, D10, Stephanie Tubbs Jones

• 2010, D11, John Murtha

• 2012, D12, Donald M. Payne

• 2013, R6, Bill Young

• 2015, R7, Alan Nunnelee

• 2016, D13, Mark Takai

• 2018, D14, Louise Slaughter

• 2019, R8, Walter B. Jones Jr.

• 2019, D15, Elijah Cummings

• 2020, D16, John Lewis

• 2021, R9, Ron Wright

• 2021, D17, Alcee Hastings

• 2022, R10, Jim Hagedorn

• 2022, R11, Don Young

• 2022, R12, Jackie Walorski

• 2022, D18, Donald McEachin

• 2024, D19, Donald Payne Jr.

• 2024, D20, Sheila Jackson Lee

• 2024, D21, Bill Pascrell

• 2025, D22, Sylvester Turner

• 2025, D23, Raúl Grijalva

• 2025, D24, Gerry Connolly

It’s not because of any difference in health care - all members of Congress have automatic high levels of health care. It’s not that Democrats are more risk taking, if anything they were more careful during the pandemic, more likely to wear masks for instance.

It’s just because Democrats have a wider spread of ages and so there are more elderly Democrats.

So we can expect this trend to continue that more Democrats than Republcans die in office.

There are many Republican vacancies too but they are more likely to resign to retire or take up another job etc.

Contents

• Democrats in despair in 2017-8 after Hillary Clinton’s loss - and no idea where to go next, much like today

  • Dems picked up 40 seats in the mid terms though Republicans won a seat in the Senate

  • Democrats gained one seat in the House in 2024 while losing the presidency

• Special elections in the House for Republicans who leave office (e.g. retired / take another job / died)

  • Next special election Mark Green - normally a very safe seat but the margin shift for the other two special elections this year suggest it could be vulnerable

• Lisa Murkowski, Senator from Alaska about how they are all afraid because “retaliation is real and that is not right” (she doesn’t say specifically about Trump but about how she and others are often anxious about speaking their own mind)

  • Bullying insulates Trump from the problems his party faces at the level of representatives because they know their own districts

  • This means he may well lose seats because representatives are elected to raise the concerns of their constituency - voters may well vote for a Democrat contender just because they want a representative who can speak freely in the House to raise their concerns with any measure - only Brian Fitzpatrick and Thomas Massie pass this test

• Not a great baseline to aim for - approval rating for 2017-8

• Budget for 2025-6 - Trump’s only chance for major cuts in NOAA, NASA, NSF etc while he also wants a major BOOST in the defence budget - but this time he can be filibustered

  • Authorized impoundment - legal but tricky and a president only gets one go at it ever for each budget item

• What happens if Dems control the House - many possibilities open up for investigation, calling witnesses

  • Start impeachment of Trump or JFK or other cabinet officials if they find enough information to support it

  • Refuse to bring most bills to the floor and bring their own bills instead

• If Dems win the midterms that prepares for the 2028 campaign

• Why are so many more Democrats dying in the House than Republicans - the last 7 to die were all Democrats? It’s because though the average is the same for both parties there are FAR more elderly Democrats and FAR MORE youthful Democrats

• Contents

• CONTACT ME VIA PM OR ON FACEBOOK OR EMAIL

  • FOR MORE HELP

• SEARCH LIST OF DEBUNKS

  • NEW SHORT DEBUNKS

• TIPS FOR DEALING WITH DOOMSDAY FEARS

• PLEASE DON’T COMMENT HERE WITH POTENTIALLY SCARY QUESTIONS ABOUT OTHER TOPICS - INSTEAD COMMENT ON POST SET UP FOR IT

• PLEASE DON’T TELL A SCARED PERSON THAT THE THING THEY ARE SCARED OF IS TRUE WITHOUT A VERY RELIABLE SOURCE OR IF YOU ARE A VERY RELIABLE SOURCE YOURSELF - AND RESPOND WITH CARE

CONTACT ME VIA PM OR ON FACEBOOK OR EMAIL

You can Direct Message me on Substack - but I check this rarely. Or better, email me at support@robertinventor.com

Or best of all Direct Message me on Facebook if you are okay joining Facebook. My Facebook profile is here:. Robert Walker I usually get Facebook messages much faster than on the other platforms as I spend most of my day there.

FOR MORE HELP

To find a debunk see: List of articles in my Debunking Doomsday blog to date See also my Short debunks

Scared and want a story debunked? Post to our Facebook group. Please look over the group rules before posting or commenting as they help the group to run smoothly

• Facebook group Doomsday Debunked

Also do join our facebook group if you can help with fact checking or to help scared people who are panicking.

SEARCH LIST OF DEBUNKS

You can search by title and there’s also an option to search the content of the blog using a google search.

CLICK HERE TO SEARCH: List of articles in my Debunking Doomsday blog to date

NEW SHORT DEBUNKS

I do many more fact checks and debunks on our facebook group than I could ever write up as blog posts. They are shorter and less polished but there is a good chance you may find a short debunk for some recent concern.

I often write them up as “short debunks”

See Latest short debunks for new short debunks

I also tweet the debunks and short debunks to my Blue Sky page here:

. doomsdaydebunks.bsky.social

I do the short debunks more often but they are less polished - they are copies of my longer replies to scared people in the Facebook group.

I go through phases when I do lots of short debunks. Recently I’ve taken to converting comments in the group into posts in the group that resemble short debunks and most of those haven’t yet been copied over to the wiki.

TIPS FOR DEALING WITH DOOMSDAY FEARS

If suicidal or helping someone suicidal see my:

BLOG: Supporting someone who is suicidal

If you have got scared by any of this, health professionals can help. Many of those affected do get help and find it makes a big difference.

They can’t do fact checking, don’t expect that of them. But they can do a huge amount to help with the panic, anxiety, maladaptive responses to fear and so on.

Also do remember that therapy is not like physical medicine. The only way a therapist can diagnose or indeed treat you is by talking to you and listening to you. If this dialogue isn’t working for whatever reason do remember you can always ask to change to another therapist and it doesn’t reflect badly on your current therapist to do this.

Also check out my Seven tips for dealing with doomsday fears based on things that help those scared, including a section about ways that health professionals can help you.

I know that sadly many of the people we help can’t access therapy for one reason or another - usually long waiting lists or the costs.

There is much you can do to help yourself. As well as those seven tips, see my:

BLOG: Doing what matters at times of stress
— new WHO booklet to help with mental health during COVID19 pandemic

BLOG: Breathe in and out slowly and deeply and other ways to calm a panic attack

BLOG: Tips from CBT
— might help some of you to deal with doomsday anxieties

PLEASE DON’T COMMENT HERE WITH POTENTIALLY SCARY QUESTIONS ABOUT OTHER TOPICS - INSTEAD COMMENT ON POST SET UP FOR IT

PLEASE DON'T COMMENT ON THIS POST WITH POTENTIALLY SCARY QUESTIONS ABOUT ANY OTHER TOPIC:

INSTEAD PLEASE COMMENT HERE:

Post to comment on, with off topic potentially scary comments - or send me a private message - or use our group on Facebook

The reason is I often can’t respond to comments for some time. The unanswered comment can scare people who come to this post for help on something else

Also even an answered comment may scare them because they see the comment before my reply.

It works much better to put comments on other topics on a special post for them.

It is absolutely fine to digress and go off topic in conversations here.

This is specifically about anything that might scare people on a different topic.

PLEASE DON’T TELL A SCARED PERSON THAT THE THING THEY ARE SCARED OF IS TRUE WITHOUT A VERY RELIABLE SOURCE OR IF YOU ARE A VERY RELIABLE SOURCE YOURSELF - AND RESPOND WITH CARE

This is not like a typical post on substack. It is specifically to help people who are very scared with voluntary fact checking. Please no politically motivated exaggerations here. And please be careful, be aware of the context.

We have a rule in the Facebook group and it is the same here.

If you are scared and need help it is absolutely fine to comment about anything to do with the topic of the post that scares you.

But if you are not scared or don’t want help with my voluntary fact checking please don’t comment with any scary material.

If you respond to scared people here please be careful with your sources. Don’t tell them that something they are scared of is true without excellent reliable sources, or if you are a reliable source yourself.

It also matters a lot exactly HOW you respond. E.g. if someone is in an area with a potential for earthquakes there’s a big difference between a reply that talks about the largest earthquake that’s possible there even when based on reliable sources, and says nothing about how to protect themselves and the same reply with a summary and link to measures to take to protect yourself in an earthquake.