Concern is for a war like a larger Gaza Strip between the small countries of Israel and Lebanon - NOT A WORLD WAR - and both sides want to deescalate and have experience in deescalating
The risk here is of a larger version of the Gaza Strip conflict between Israel and Lebanon and that’s what both sides want to avoid. This is what the US means by an “all-out war scenario” and US National Security Advisor Kirby says that the predictions were and are exaggerated:
MR. KIRBY: … Look, we’ve all heard about this all-out war scenario, now multiple points over the last 10 months. Those predictions were exaggerated then, and, quite frankly, we think they’re exaggerated now.
What both sides want to prevent is a war like the one in Gaza Strip but with thousands of Israelis dying and tens or hundreds of thousands of Lebanese. Israel would be supplied by the US, Germany and Italy and Lebanon by Iran and Syria and Lebanon has open borders that Israel can’t blockade unlike Gaza Strip, and this worst case could continue for years with Lebanon resupplied continuously until both sides come to some resolution. Nobody wants this war.
Moreover Hezbollah are only fighting in protest at the Gaza Strip conflict. That’s the key to ending this, to resolve the Gaza Strip conflict and then Hezobllah will agree a ceasefire and they can go back to the difficult path of negotiating a solution with occasional flares of violence as before.
Hezbollah are militants and only count as terrorists because of some high profile car bombings of Israelis. Apart from that they have reasonably precise missiles (unlike Hamas) and target military targets and most of the Israelis who die in their attacks on Isreal are military.
The attack on the soccer field was surely a mistake. Both sides have killed some civilians since Oct 07 as is hard to avoid in a low level conflict, but both sides have aimed at military targets.
Israel will feel it has to respond for show. And Hezbollah will understand that. And likely respond as well but in calibrated ways. Remember that these countries are used to de-escalating and they will do carefully calibrated responses as nobody wants a larger war. But a larger war here means a large Gaza Strip, which in worst case might continue for years like the 1982-5 war in Lebanon. It’s not about a world war as this graphic helps explain.
.
NO RISK OF A WORLD WAR - Russia would NOT GET INVOLVED. Russia’s main interest in Syria is its port in Tartus which lets it service ships which would otherwise have to travel all the way back to Russia - at present with strait of Bosporus blocked by Turkey they have to travel all the way to the Baltic sea.
Both sides want to de-escalate and are able to do so, with long experience in de-escalation.
In a war between Israel and Lebanon, thousands of Israelis would die. 10s or 100s of thousands of Lebanese would die. It might continue for years like the 1982-5 war in Lebanon. Nobody wants that.
Lebanon: 8 sea ports
Border with Syria can’t be blockaded by Israel
Hezbollah are militants
counted as terrorist because of some high profile car bombings of Israelis internationally
fire at military targets in Israel
are not in control in Lebanon which has democratic elections
weapons can hit all of Israel with precision targeting
A war between Israel and Lebanon would be like a larger Gaza Strip, with Israel supplied by the USA, Germany and Italy and Lebanon supplied by Syria and Iran.
Not a world war but nobody in the area wants this and it could be hard to stop.
Gaza Strip conflict:
Israel attacks Gaza Strip with bombs.
Hamas is not able to attack Israel.
Very little real world consequences for Israelis after the Oct 07 tragedy
10s of thousands of Palestinians killed, food, water, medicine and fuel often blockaded, and the population forced to move many times.
Sea blockade
Land blockade
Background map edited from: File:Arab Christians.png - Wikimedia Commons
The war they worry about is a war like Gaza strip but far larger with thousands of Israelis dying, soldiers and civilians and tens or hundreds of thousands of Lebanese and likely continuing for longer than Gaza Strip maybe for years.
It is NOT about a world war.
It is about a small local war between the small country of Israel and the even smaller country of Lebanon with Israel supplied by the USA, Germany and Italy and Lebanon supplied by Iran and Syria which would let it keep going for a long time. Unlike Gaza Strip, Lebanon has an open border with Syria that Israel can't block as well as a sea coast with major ports that again Israel can't block:
Beirut.
Chekka.
Jounieh.
Selaata.
Sidon.
Tripoli.
Tyr.
Zahrani Terminal
. Lebanon Sea Port List | Lebanon Shipping Ports | SeaRates
By comparison, Gaza Strip has NO PORTS and is blockaded by sea by Israel warships.
Hezbollah don't rule Lebanon which has a democratic government and though they sympathize with Hamas, they themsleves are more militants and less terrorist than Hamas - they aim at military targets in Lebanon. Their terrorism consists of a few high profile Israeli targeted car bombings.
They are dependent on the good will of Lebanese people.
The main controversy between Israel and Lebanon is over small areas of land that they contest, a few farms and villages.
The reason Hezbollah are attacking Israel at present is in protest against the Gaza Strip bombing and because they want a ceasefire.
What happened is probably a mistake by Hezbollah. Their missile misfired.
Likely that Israel does respond but Israel will be looking at a limited response.
Hezbollah usually target military rather than civilian targets in Israel, so it's unlikely to be an intentional attack by them and they have denied being behind it.
Hezbollah claim it is possibly fragments from the Israeli defence system.
The US say it is Hezbollah but their rocket could have misfired.
Both sides have killed civilians, at least 20 Israeli and at least 90 Lebanese civilians since Jan 06, but on both sides in this conflict, by far the majority of casualties are military.
QUOTE STARTS
U.S. intelligence officials have no doubts that Hezbollah carried out the attack on the Golan Heights, but it was not clear if the militant group intended the target or misfired, according to a person familiar with the matter who was not authorized to comment publicly
...
Since early October, Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon have killed more than 450 people, mostly Hezbollah members, but also around 90 civilians and non-combatants. On the Israeli side, 45 have been killed, at least 21 of them soldiers.
. Strike in Israeli-controlled Golan Heights kills at least 12 and threatens to spark a wider war
What everyone wants to stop is a larger war between Israel and the very small country of Lebanon. Both sides will want to de-escalate. There is no risk of a world war.
The risk is of a war like the Gaza Strip but with a larger country Lebanon which has open borders to Syria and to the Sea so it can be supplied indirectly by Iran and other sympathizers indefinitely with advanced weapons.
Hezbollah has nowhere near the technological capability of Israel but in a war between Israel and Lebanon thousands of Israeli civilians would be killed likely, and tens or hundreds of thousands of Lebaneze and it would likely last longer.
Nobody wants that war.
It would be another conflict like the Gaza Strip conflict but against a country with far more powerful weapons than Gaza Strip able to reach all the way to the far side of Israel, with precision targeting and also with the ability to shoot down low-flying Israeli jets over Lebanon.
Also unlike Gaza Strip, Lebanon has a long open border with Syria as well as a long sea coast with ports on it (Gaza Srip has a sea coast but blockaded by Israel, also a land border with Egypt but Egypt cooperates with Israel to keep out supplies for Hamas and Israel now has control of the Gaza Strip side of the border with Egypt).
So weapons and other supplies can flow in and out of Lebanon unlike Gaza Strip.
Israel would "win" but there would be at least thousands of Israeli deaths and tens or hundreds of thousands of Lebanese deaths in such a war.
So it would be like the Gaza Strip conflict but much larger. It would also be harder to stop.
With Gaza Strip there is no real risk to civilians in Israel any more. Israel could have stopped Jan 06 from ever happening again by just reinforcing the border fence.
But Hezbollah have far more ability to harm Israel than Hamas.
In a fight against Lebanon then Israel would be more entangled and though Lebanon would be much weaker than Israel it could keep up for a long time much longer than Hamas and with a constant risk to soldiers and civilians within Israel not just in Lebanon.
Lebanon has a democratic government and Hezbollah are not in power there. So it is a different situation from Gaza Strip. Hezbollah need to be far more careful about civilian casualties in Lebanon. ,
And Hezbollah are more focused on regaining small amounts of territory and also doing their attacks in sympathy with Hamas. They don't do terrorist operations in Israel.
Some background in my
Russia is fully caught up with the Ukraine war, but even if it wasn't, it has good relations with Israel as well as Syria and Iran and tries to be neutral on Palestine / Israel.
Its main interest in Syria is that it gives Russia access to the port of Tartus on the Mediterranean, without it then its ships would have to keep going back to the Black Sea and since the Ukraine war started Turkey blocked off the strait of Bosporus to military vessels, so without Tartus, Russian warships would have to go all the way around and through the straits of Gibraltar and up to the Baltic states for repairs and resupply etc.
. Russian naval facility in Tartus - Wikipedia
Back at the time of the Soviet Union it had a far stronger presence in the Middle East. But not today. There is no way Russia would get directly involved in some war in the Middle East with Israel and the US. It does still have a strong presence in Syria and good relations with Iran.
It's impossible for anything in the middle East to lead to a world war as I explain here:
BLOG: On Substack WW3 in Middle East? BULLS**T
Even Iran can't do a world war if it wanted to which it obviously doesn't as no country would want that.
Iran doesn’t even have missiles that could reach most of Europe never mind the Americas. It has the technological ability to develop an ICBM to hit the USA but has no interest in doing so and it would take a series of tests before it had that capability which it doesn’t even want.
Iran is not likely to directly attack Israel. Syria maybe has more risk of getting involved but it wouldn't want the focus turned on it either.
Egypt and Jordan definitely not as they have peace agreements with Israel, and Jordan also helped with shooting down Iranian missiles headed for Israel.
I don't think much effect on other countries except stray missiles from Hezbollah intended for Israel if there was a big war. It would be like the Gaza Strip but with Hezbollah instead of Gaza Stirp.
But remember that both sides very much want to de-escalate. The last thing Netanyahu wants is a larger war that unlike the Gaza Strip conflict would lead to deaths of Israelis.
NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISOR JOHN KIRBY: WORKING TO A DIPLOMATIC SOLUTION AND ALL OUT WAR SCENARIO IS EXAGGERATED
John Kirby said three main things
It was a Hezbollah rocket
They are working to a diplomatic solution along the blue line to end the attacks once and for all. There the blue line is the UN imposed line of withdrawal for Israel to withdraw from Lebanon: Blue Line (withdrawal line) - Wikipedia
The scenario of an all-out war between Israel and Lebanon is exaggerated
The US continue diplomatic discussions with Hezbollah and Israel
The attack was conducted by Lebanese Hezbollah, despite their denials. It was their rocket, and it was launched from an area that they control.
We have been in continuous discussions with our Israeli and Lebanese counterparts, and the United States will continue to support efforts to reach a diplomatic solution along that Blue Line that will, number one, end these terrible attacks once and for all, and number two, allow Israeli and Lebanese citizens on both sides of the border to safely return to their homes.
Our support for Israel’s security remains ironclad and it’s unwavering against all Iran-backed threats, including those from Hezbollah. No nation can be expected to tolerate the kind of severe threats that Israel is facing. At the same time, we believe that there is still time and space for a diplomatic solution.…
MR. KIRBY: Hey, thanks, Aamer. Look, we’ve all heard about this all-out war scenario, now multiple points over the last 10 months. Those predictions were exaggerated then, and, quite frankly, we think they’re exaggerated now.
Look, Israel has every right to respond. It’s Hezbollah that started firing on Israel way back in October, and I think we need to keep that in mind. But nobody wants a broader war, and I’m confident that we’ll be able to avoid such an outcome. I’ll let the Israelis speak to whatever their response is going to be.
As for conversations over the weekend, you bet we’ve had them, and we had them at multiple levels. But I’m not going to detail the guts of those conversations. Again, I want to go back to what I said before: Israel has a right to defend itself. No nation should have to live with this kind of threat.
What’s really important, Aamer, is that we continue these diplomatic conversations with both sides — and we are and we will — to try to reduce the tensions and to allow for families, both Israeli and Lebanese families, to move back into their homes, where they want to be and where they belong.
FOREIGN SECRETARY BLINKEN’S CALL WITH ISRAELI PRESIDENT HERZOG: US EMPHASIZES NEED TO AVOID ESCALATION AND REACH A DIPLOMATIC RESOLUTION AND HERZOG EMPHASIZED NEED FOR US TO STAND WITH ISRAEL:
This is the White House readout of the meeting:
Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken met with Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant today.
… He also underscored the importance of avoiding further escalation of the conflict and reaching a diplomatic resolution that allows both Israeli and Lebanese families to return to their homes. Secretary Blinken reaffirmed the United States’ ironclad commitment to Israel’s security.
. Secretary Blinken’s Meeting with Israeli Defense Minister Gallant
Israel’s readout:
The Minister also raised the possible ways to change the security situation in the northern arena. Minister Gallant emphasized the importance of the U.S. standing with Israel in this mission, and its impact on the actions taken by Hezbollah and Iran.
So the US administration is working hard to prevent a full-fledged war between Israel and Hezbollah
Both also emphasized the need for a ceasefire agreement in Gaza Strip.
US readout:
The Secretary emphasized the need to take additional steps to protect humanitarian workers in Gaza and deliver assistance throughout Gaza in full coordination with the United Nations. He updated Minister Gallant on ongoing diplomatic efforts to advance security, governance, and reconstruction in Gaza during a post-conflict period and emphasized the importance of that work to Israel’s security.
. Secretary Blinken’s Meeting with Israeli Defense Minister Gallant
Israel readout:
Minister Gallant discussed the need to exert additional pressure on Hamas in order to ensure the return of the hostages held in Gaza. He also discussed the importance of promoting a governing alternative in Gaza.
. Joe Truzman (@JoeTruzman) on X
Blinken’s warning was the latest from a top Biden official, as the administration seeks to prevent a full-fledged war between Israel and Hezbollah, which began launching near-daily attacks on the north following Hamas’s October 7 onslaught.
Secretary Blinken and President Herzog also discussed ongoing efforts to achieve a ceasefire in Gaza and secure the release of hostages. The Secretary underscored the U.S. commitment to securing lasting peace and stability in the region.
AL JAZEERA SUMMARY - ISRAEL DOESN’T WANT ALL OUT WAR AND THE WAY OUT OF THIS IS TO GET A DEAL TO END THE GAZA STRIP CONFLICT - WHILE HEZBOLLAH IS LIKELY TO COUNTERATTACK TO ANY ISRAEL RESPONSE, BUT IN A WAY THAT DE-ESCALATES - IN THE CALLIBRATED “LANGUAGE” OF DE-ESCALATING MISSILE STRIKES
Israel does not want an all-out war and the priority is to
Waging an all-out war against Hezbollah, a force that many analysts consider Israel’s toughest foe in the region, is an even taller task, said Mairav Zonszein, a senior Israel-Palestine analyst for the International Crisis Group.
…
Zonszein said Netanyahu – or Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, who may have more influence on a decision to go to war – don’t want an all-out war. But, she said, if they think they can conduct a major strike on Lebanon without triggering a significant escalation, they might be underestimating the risks.
“The entire thing is extremely problematic, and the most responsible and sensible thing is to get a ceasefire and hostage deal in Gaza, which would de-escalate things immediately [on Israel’s border with Lebanon] in the north,” Zonszein said.
. After Golan Heights attack, will the Israel-Hezbollah conflict escalate?
Hezbollah likely to show restraint and strike back proportionally
Hezbollah will likely show some restraint to a major Israeli strike but would aim to strike back “proportionately,” Blanford said.
He noted that from Hezbollah’s perspective, it has done nothing wrong to warrant an escalation from Israel and its response will depend on Israel’s strike.
. After Golan Heights attack, will the Israel-Hezbollah conflict escalate?
Possible options for Israel:
target senior Hezbollah commanders
Strike Hezbollah stronghold in the Beirut suburb of Dahiya
Possible Hezbollah responses
One or two missiles to Israeli city of Haifa but with goal of dialing things down
Israel, he said, could target senior Hezbollah commanders or even strike Dahiya, a Beirut suburb and Hezbollah stronghold.
“If Israel were to hit Dahiya, then it wouldn’t surprise me if Hezbollah responded with one or two missiles going to [the Israeli city] Haifa [for example]. But the response would be proportionate with the overall goal of dialling things down,” he told Al Jazeera.
. After Golan Heights attack, will the Israel-Hezbollah conflict escalate?
Hezbollah’s long term goal is a settlement of the Gaza Strip dispute
not likely to sign a ceasefire with Israel until it resolves the situation in Gaza Strip
May be planning to agree to abide by UN suggested demilitarized zone between the blue line and the Litani River.
Imad Salamey, a political scientist at the Lebanese American University, added that Hezbollah’s long-term strategy remains tied to Gaza and the group is unlikely to sign a ceasefire agreement with Israel until a settlement is reached there.
He believes Hezbollah may already be preparing for a post-conflict scenario by agreeing to abide by United Nations Resolution 1701, which was passed after the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war and calls for a demilitarised zone between the Blue Line and the Litani River.
The former is a demarcation line that divides Lebanon from Israel and the Golan Heights while the latter is a large river that flows south towards the Lebanon-Israeli border.
“Both Hezbollah and Israel are likely to claim victory in any subsequent arrangement to maintain their respective domestic support and deter further escalation,” Salamey told Al Jazeera.
. After Golan Heights attack, will the Israel-Hezbollah conflict escalate?
It’s likely to be similar to the exchange between Israel and Iran after
Israel bombed an Iranian embassy compound in Syria
Iran responded by firing a fleet of drones and then ballistic missiles at Israel, but carefully calibrated so that Israel could easily shoot them down - with the ballistic missiles set to arrive after the Israeli planes were in the air so that they hit empty air fields.
Israel responded by symbolic attacks on an air defence system near a nuclear facility in Iran but not targeting the facility
Iran responded by downplaying the Israeli attack claiming it was local insurgents using palm sized microdrones
As I summarized back then, experts on the BBC / PBS explain that small and medium sized countries often use military signaling which we are not used to in the west - using strikes like this to send signals not with military objectives with a kind of carefully calibrated language.
It’s the same here. Israel will feel it needs to respond to the attack that killed civilians. Hezbollah will understand that need in this calibrated language of military strikes. Hezbollah will in turn have a need to respond back in some way, but in a symbolic way, for instance firing rockets at Israel that it knows Israel can easily shoot down with the Iron dome.
Then Israel at that point likely decides the exchange is over. It could conceivably continue for a bit longer with lesser responses on each side as they de-escalate.
They also de-escalate by pausing before responding. We see that going on no immediate large response by Israel. That lets tensions ease a bit and is a way of demonstrating to the other side that they are working on a calibrated response in this informal diplomatic language of missile strikes.
People will die in these strikes. Of course the preference is for a purely diplomatic solution but when they aren’t on good enough terms for that, with on-going low level conflict, then this is what countries often do instead.
See my:
EVENTUAL RESOLUTION OF THE ISRAEL LEBANON CONFLICT AFTER END OF GAZA STRIP CONFLICT LIKELY TO INVOLVE LOTS OF DIFFICULT NEGOTIATIONS BUT WITH OUTLINES FOR AN AGREEMENT
The UN security council resolution calling for a demilitarized zone.
. Security Council Resolution 1701: The situation in the Middle East
This is a solution where a large area of southern Lebanon is demilitarized between the river and the Israeli border, The Litani River is shown in solid blue here:
. File:Lebanese rivers litani.jpg - Wikimedia Commons
This is about Lebanon’s call for peace in Gaza Strip
. Lebanon calls for ending Israeli war on Gaza
. Blue Line (withdrawal line) - Wikipedia
Lebanon says there are 13 points of disagreement along the Blue Line.
QUOTE "We face a historic opportunity to liberate our lands and prevent the enemy from invading our borders and our airspace," Nasrallah said in his speech.
Some of the main ones mentioned in that article are
the Land Terminus point B1 between Israel and Lebanon where the blue line reaches the sea
- Lebanon wants Israel to withdraw from this areaGhajar / Rhadjar - an Alawaite Arab village on the Hasbani River. Split in half by the blue line but Israel controls all of it, Lebanon wants half
Mount Dov / Sheba farms - raised land north of the village of Majdal- Shams of strategic importance, Lebanon thinks it should be part of Lebanon
QUOTE Dorothy Shea, former US ambassador to Lebanon, said recent talks between delegations of the two nations has concluded in an agreement regarding 7 of the 13 points of contention, this according to Asharq Al-Awsat, an Arabic international newspaper based in London.
They are relatively minor points but ones that matter to Lebanon and Israel.
There are two other main issues mentioned in that article
Lebanon doesn’t currently have a prime minister so it’s hard to conclude an agreement until they have one (haven’t had one since 2024 when Michel Aoun resigned the day before his office ended without a successor)
The issue is that after Lebanon’s financial crisis its government hasn’t been able to agree on a prime minister to lead them out of it Lebanese President Aoun leaves office amid political uncertaintyMany in Hezbollah are landowners in southern Lebanon south of the Litani river and don’t want to be forced out from their lands and homes
So it’s a difficult situation but neither side want a war and both will try to find a diplomatic way forward.
HEZBOLLAH ARE MILITANTS THAT USE PRECISE BOMBS TO HIT MILITARY TARGETS- NOT SUCH EXTREME TERRORISTS AS HAMAS - TERRORISTS MAINLY FOR HIGH PROFILE CAR BOMBS OF ISRAELIS - ALSO INVOLVED IN ILLEGAL SMUGGLING OF DRUGS, FUEL AND FLOUR
Unlike Hamas, Hezbolah has far more precise bombs and it also doesn't target civilians. It would never have done an attack like the Oct 07 one that Hamas did.
Hezbollah do count as terrorist but this is for a small number of high profile car bombings. Nothing like what Hamas did.
They have the same political goal of Hamas of elimination of the state of Israel but they don’t attempt to achieve this by military means. They have their weapons in order to liberate small amounts of Lebanese territory along the border under the control of Israel as described in the last section - tiny regions, half a village, a small area of farmland and so on - and to prevent the Israeli army invading Lebanon.
Hezbollah does not recognise the existence of Israel and advocates its elimination, although its justification for retaining arms is that it seeks to liberate Lebanese territory still occupied by Israel.
…
Hezbollah has primarily used four means of pressuring Israel to grant land back to Lebanon: kidnapping Israeli soldiers in cross-border raids, attacking Israel with short and long range rockets, suicide bombings, and paramilitary guerrilla warfare.
Of those four methods the main things it does today are the rocket attacks and it also does border raids where a small number of Hezbollah soldiers invade Israel on foot and are normally all killed in the raid so they do this knowing they are not likely to survive.
…
Hezbollah has also been involved in a relatively limited number of terrorist attacks against the United States, most notoriously the 1983 Marine suicide bombings in Beirut. Widely believed to have been carried out by Hezbollah or members linked to the group, this devastating act killed 220 Marines, 18 Navy soldiers, and 3 Army soldiers. Prior to the September 11 attacks in New York and Washington, it represented the single deadliest day for United States since the 1968 Tet Offensive during the Vietnam War
.Hezbollah has also been implicated in the suicide truck bombing of the Israeli embassy in Buenos Aires, Argentina, which killed 29 people and injured 242 on March 17th , 1992.
Two investigative reports in Der Spiegel, and the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation point to Hezbollah’s role in the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri in 2005. It is widely believed that the United National Special Tribunal for Lebanon, which is investigating the affair, has issued confidential arrest warrants for four Hezbollah agents involved in the assassination
It is also associated with drug smuggling in Lebanon and other smuggling activities such as flour and fuel.
. Drug economy in Lebanon - Wikipedia
So it is involved in illegal activities as a source of income.
But it is not extreme terrorism in the way Hamas is. It doesn’t deliberately target civilians, doesn’t take civilian hostages and isn’t engaged in torture.
And Lebanon has a democratic government with Hezbollah playing a minor role in government with a few seats in parliament.
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what about other middle eastern countries? would this prompt them to get involved in a way the gaza strip couldn’t achieve?