Israel’s pre-emptive attack on Hezbollah and Hezbollah’s response may not disturb peace talks much if this is over soon - Hezbollah says their response is over for today - NEVER RISK OF WORLD WAR
[MID-EDIT]
A US commentator Laura Blumenfield - Middle East analyst and former senior policy advisor on Israeli Palestinian negotiating team. said that looking at it optimistically, in basket ball terms, these could be buzzer beater shots before game over.
Hezbollah and Israel have agreed to a ceasefire if Israel can agree to a ceasefire with Hamas. So that is like the game over buzzer in a game of basketball. After they agree the Hamas ceasefire wth Israel they can’t attack each other any more. But both may feel they have unfinished business they want to do before the ceasefire. If that is all that is happening here it may not be very serious as regards the ceasefire talks though of course it is serious for those individuals who do get hurt in the tit-for-tat.
The ceasefire itself is actually stuck on a bit of a technical issue between Egypt and Israel about who is responsible for making sure that Hamas can’t dig tunnels under the border. Israel doesn’t trust Egypt because they found over 100 tunnels taht the Egypt border guard missed but Egypt don’t want Israel anywhere near the border and no third party is currently likely to be acceptable or want to do it for them. But that may well be solvable with more work. Netanyahu has agreed on the ceasefire if this issue can be solved. Hamas also seem to be within reach of agreeing.
So it does seem well possible that Israel and Hamas might think it is just about their last chance to do anything by way of military strikes. It is important that Israel went first here even though they claim it’s a pre-emptive strike but this changes the politics of what happened.
So far all that’s happened as of writing this is
Israel did a pre-emptive strike on Hezbollah which came first at 4.45 am claiming they had intelligence Hezbollah was about to fire rockets at them at 5 am.
Hezbollah responded with 320 rockets back immediately.
The targets were military and not civilian on both sides.
That is it so far.
Hezbollah says that their attack is over at least for today. Israel says it has no interest in an all-out war.
. Hezbollah says attacks completed for today; Israel says no interest in all-out war
Iran doesn't seem likely to get involved and if Hezbollah stop at this point or don't do much more tomorrow, both sides may be able to call it a day for now.
Both sides are VERY experienced at de-escalation here. I think the risk of escalation is low. For some of the background of their long previous history of de-escalation and calibrated responses, and how they do it, see:
Iran will not see their dignity as restored after the assassination of Haniyeh but there's a saying in Israel that someone who responds after 30 years is in a hurry, that is very much Iran's approach of strategic patience, so they may not do anything else at this point.
THIS IS NEVER A WORLD WAR
THE MAIN RISK IS CONTINUOUS WAR BETWEEN ISRAEL AND LEBANON - with possibly Syria joining in
I.E. A LARGER VERSION OF THE GAZA STRIP CONFLICT
BUT NOBODY WANTS THAT EITHER.
Both sides are careful to avoid escalation.
This is a quick response based on what the BBC said in their 5 am program. I found that for some reason at 5 am they tend to have experts on Middle East and a longer format program than most on that topic during the ceasefire talks.
It need not necessarily derail the peace talks much based on BBC commentary just now depending how it continues - so far Israel has done a pre-emptive strike in Southern Lebanon, claiming Hezbollah were about to attack them, and Hezbollah has done an immediate response and both sides are now taking stock and deciding what to do next. Optimistically as a US expert said, Laura Blumenfield - an advisor on Israeli negotiating team - to take a basketball analogy it might be the buzzer beater shots from both sides before the game over with the ceasefire - which is getting close.
I.e. if Israel and Hamas both think they are getting close to a ceasefire they might feel this is their last chance to do anything because after the ceasefire in Gaza Strip then Hezbollah says they will also do an immediate ceasefire with Israel.
So - she says that so long as it stays controlled and doesn't escalate or become a continuing war, that it may help Hamas and Israel to both have some sense of closure before the ceasfire.
It can let Israel say they did their pre-emptive strike against Hezbollah which they have been wanting to do since Oct 06 and Hamas and Hezbollah to say that they got their retaliation to compensate for the killing of their military leader Fuad Shukr, in July 20 days ago.
Notes I took down as they talked.
First the Israeli commander:
1. Israel claims they could see Hezbollah planning an attack on Israel.
2. Warned civilians in the area to move out.
3. They say they are operating in self defence.
BBC correspondent Mohamed Tama of BBC Arabic
NOTES AS MOHAMAD TAMA TALKED
Q. pre-emptive strike?
MOHAMAD TAMA: Israel says pre-emptive strike to prevent an attack from southern Lebanon
Hezbollah immediately retaliated attacking areas in Northern Israel and and in occupied areas of Syria [the Golan heights]
Details from another source:
QUOTE STARTS Most of the Israeli strikes on Lebanon were in the border area, up to 5km [3 miles] deep along the 120km [74 miles] border.
The border area is now a military zone. It’s been evacuated of civilians. It’s been repeatedly hit by the Israeli army in recent months.
Many of the villages … have been levelled to the ground but Hezbollah is still present there.
...
[Hezbolah] said it fired more than 320 Katyusha rockets at 11 Israeli military bases and barracks, including the Meron base and four sites in the occupied Golan Heights. Israel attacks Lebanon as Hezbollah launches ‘first phase’ of retaliation
[So both sides are avoiding civilians and hitting purely military targets]
NOTES AS MOHAMED TAMA TALKED
MOHAMAD TAMA: Hezbollah said targeting a specific military post.
Israel security meeting very soon.
This meeting has the capability of declaring a full war.
Hezbollah say hit 11 Israeli military sites and fired more than 320 rockets Said it's an initial phase.
Q, They said in retaliation for top commander Fuad Shukr killed in Beirut. Also killing of Haniyeh - what are the stakes.
MOHAMAD TAMA: First need to emphasize this whole operation was started by Israel doing a pre-emptive strike against Hezbollah not Hezbollah.
For the 20 days or so we expected Hezbollah to retaliate and Iran on killing of Haniyeh and they didn't.
Talks started in Cairo ceasefire and I think Iran and Hezbollah waiting for results. Talks to continue negotiations.
In all this talk about peace talks and ceasefire, Israel did pre-emptive attack that targeted many villages in Southern Lebanon.
Hezbollah didn't take time to think but straight away launched 320 missiles against posts in northern Israel.
Situation between Hezbollah and Israel is very tense. Threatening to be a very wide war between both parties.
[END OF SUMMARY]
US, Israel's ally heavily involved in ceasefire talks. Pentagon postured to support defence of Israel.
Talk to Laura Blumenfield - Middle East analyst and former senior policy advisor on Israeli Palestinian negotiating team.
NOTES AS LAURA BLUMENFIELD TALKED
Ceasefire talks ongoing. What are people fearing of escalation and impact on ceasefire talks.
LAURA BLUMENFIELD: Ceasefire talks dying and 6 hostage bodies recovered. Short term bad news, talks expected in Cairo on Sunday - on pause as airfield in Israel closed, not even be able to get to Egypt because of pause in flights.
If todays actions are limited and no wider escalation, it's possible that this tit for tat could be the exchange of revenge and counter-revenge that we needed for some closure for both sides.
Siwhweh can say Hezbollah stood up for their allies in Gaza afater Fuad Shukr was killed.
And Israel wanted a pre-emptive attack on Hezbollah in early October days after the Oct 07 attack and Biden pulled Netanyahu back from the brink for launching that attack. So in basket ball terms, these could be buzzer beater shots before game over.
Q. Could these satisfy Iran after very humiliated?
A. Iran - will not turn the other cheek, strike back but not now not militarily. , Strategic patience. There is a saying in the middle East if a guy takes revenge after 30 years they are in a hurry. They are clearly playing a long game of atrition.
It is hard to schedule war in the Middle East. There was the Olympics then the Democrat National Covention, then Secretary Blinken circulating the region like body bunker to prevent escalation. But civilians heard.
Don't think Iran will get involved.
Q. Comments from Hezbollah - said this was them completing an initial phase - punishment will be severe and harsh. Could be tit for tat?
A., Israeli called for a 48 emergency. But so much about exchanges about being smart rather than strong. Israel caught by surprise on Oct 06.
However then Israel's two assassinations by Israel were surprises.
Hezbollah need to shift that dignity back to them
Perhaps - wounded one person in quite deep in Israeli territory - may be enough to publicly save face.
For those wondering what the holdup is for the peace treaty between Israel and Hamas - actually it's not a problem with Hamas at all. It is now an issue between Egypt and Israel that's the big hold-up.
The main sticking point is between Egypt and Israel over how to ensure that Hamas don't dig tunnels under the border between Egypt and Gaza Strip. Not to do with Hamas. Israel doesn't trust Egypt to stop the tunnels and it has proposed various solutions to this problem but so far Egypt hasn't agreed to any of them. For instance one suggestion is for EU to police the border. Maybe but EU haven't agreed to this so it's just an idea. Israel found over 100 tunnels and it worries that if it isn't there Hamas will build new ones and it wants someone there it can trust to monitor the border.
For details see Mohamed Tama's interview
with the BBC here
It is all about who controls the Philadelphia corridor between Israel and Egypt.
This is controlled by Egypt under the Camp David treaty between Egypt and Israel. Israel can't be in that corridor by that treaty.
If Egypt endorsed Israel's request it would be a change in the Camp David treaty. This is a major change in an important treaty.
This treaty is ONLY between Egypt and Israel. Hamas is NOT part of that problem.
Hamas has issues of its own but those are negotiable.
The main sticking point for the negotiations is this camp David Issue.
Israel do have a point here. They just recently when they took over the corridor found over 100 tunnels that Hamas used to smuggle weapons in to Gaza Strip that the Egyptians don't seem to have found (or ignored). So they no longer trust Egypt to police the corridor.
Israel has suggested
- an EU mission around Rafah.
- Arabic troops from the UAE.
- high resolution radar. Egypt's problem with this solution is you never know the range of the radars and it would worry Israel uses it to snoop on other things.
All of this is now centralized on the Philadelphi corridor because of the proposal Netanyahu put to Blinken.
It is nothing to do with Hamas. The big hold up is between Israel and Egypt.
Apparently, Hamas aren't bothered about how the Philadelphi corridor is policed to stop the smuggling tunnels. {I got that wrong because many of the news stories I used as sources got it wrong).
He is very expert and knowledgable and I think he is a credible source on this.
The one yesterday was very good too.
So it is very frustrating. Hamas and Israel have agreed on most of the points that caused problems in the past. But there is this almost a technical issue between Egypt and Israel that can't yet be solved. The issue is as he explains that it would require them to modify the Camp David treaty which is a pretty major thing to do, to modify a treaty in order to get the ceasefire but there seems no alternative and how to do it is naturally a complex matter to look at.
MORE DETAILS
Israel has reportedly asked to cancel the Philadelphia Accord signed with Egypt following its unilateral disengagement from the Gaza Strip in 2005, Al-Araby Al-Jadeed reported on Tuesday, quoting informed sources. The occupation state also wants to introduce amendments to the security annexes of the Egyptian-Israeli peace deal known as the Camp David Treaty in order to maintain control over the border strip between Egypt, the Israeli Negev and the Gaza Strip.
According to the sources, the Israeli request came during the tripartite round of talks between Israel, Egypt and the US on Sunday and Monday in Cairo. The talks were another attempt to reach security understandings regarding the Philadelphi Corridor and the Rafah Crossing as part of the efforts for a ceasefire agreement and prisoner-swap deal between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip.
The report said that the talks failed to make any significant progress; due to Israel’s insistence on concluding new security arrangements that would ensure the continued presence of its military forces in the Philadelphi Corridor. The sources said that Egypt has categorically rejected the Israeli request and insisted on the complete withdrawal of the Israeli army from that area.
They also confirmed that the Israeli delegation submitted an official request to review the Camp David Treaty by amending it to legitimise the occupation state’s control over the Philadelphi Corridor, and allow it to intervene at any time to confront what it considers threats to its security without the need for prior permission from the Egyptians. Israel has demanded a written amendment that guarantees its “supervision of the security situation in the border area from the Palestinian side,” said the sources.
Cairo has rejected the “surprising” demands and warned that, “Opening a discussion about amending the Camp David Treaty may lead to new crises that the treaty may not withstand, especially in light of the growing anger in Egypt over the Israeli practices [in Gaza].”
Egyptian officials have stressed that Cairo will provide guarantees to prevent “exploitation” of the border area for Palestinian resistance purposes.
. Israel asks to amend Camp David deal with Egypt for control over Philadelphi Corridor
So apparently that is the big sticking point at present and nothing to do with Hamas.
If so it seems solvable with enough talk. Surely there is some formula which saves the Camp David accord but gives the Israelis the assurance they need that Hamas will not be able to build new tunnels again like the ones they found.
There is no chance of a world war. By a wider regional war they do NOT mean a war involving Egypt or Jordan they just mean Israel fighting Lebanon with help for Lebanon from Syria and Iran and occasional distant missiles from the Houthi rebels in the Yemen. Iran not likely to attack directly much.
But NOBODY WANTS THAT REGIONAL WAR.
Also ALL THOSE COUNTRIES ARE VERY EXPERIENCED AT DE-ESCALATION. .
Iran and Hezbolah both want an end to the Gaza Strip conflict and they want a ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel as well as between Hamas and Israel. They definitely do NOT want a larger sca|e war between Lebanon and Israel.
The main thing is talks continue. The good thing is that Israel has accepted the bridging proposals.
The negotiations are very complex. The US talks to Israel. Egypt and Qatar talk to Hamas. Israel and Hamas both refuse to talk to each other. It's tricky negotiating because the head of Hamas is now Sinwar who is a Hamas leader in Gaza Strip.
As for what happens if the deal falls through
- it is not likely to really be a larger war
- both sides are very careful and calibrated in their response
- it could be more tit for tat symbolic strikes and Iran / Hezbollah would feel they need to do more than they did last time when it was very symbolic and caused no real damage to Israel feeling that was not enough of a deterrent.
- they will want it to be a bit more but not so much as to risk escalation.
- then Israel would have the same calculation in its response in turn.
The main way they de-escalate is by leaving long periods of time between responses.
But for now Iran and Hezbollah are doing nothing.
There is a big carrot for everyone - if they get a ceasefire in Gaza Strip they will also have a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah and Iran won't do its strike and everyone can stand down and there is a real prospect of a peace deal in Lebanon and a start on reconstruction and moving forward in Gaza Strip.
Hopefully the treaty issues are sorted out. If not then they will likely work to try to restart negotiations if not then with a lot of reluctance Iran and Hezbollah might do some kind of a symbolic retaliation - then after a long pause, Israel do one too.
But they de-escalate mainly by those long pauses and meanwhile the US may likely put more and more pressure on Israel to agree a ceasefire of some sort.
It's impossible for anything in the middle East to lead to a world war as I explain here.
Also
BLOG: WW3 in Middle East? BULLS**T
The negotiations are complicated even more because the leader of Hamas is now Sinwar who is on the Israel’s most wanted list. If they find out where he is they will immediately want to drop a bomb on him, so it’s quite an unusual situation, On the other hand they couldn’t reach a deal without his approval.
On the location of Sinwar, believed to be the mastsermind of the Oct 07 attack:
QUOTE STARTS
Sinwar has not appeared in public since the October 7 attack and is believed to be hiding out in the terror group’s vast underground tunnel network. However, he is understood to have played a key role in directing the fighting in Gaza and the negotiations for a ceasefire-hostage release deal.
Palestinian sources have said that Qatar-based Hamas political official Khalil al-Hayya will continue to lead indirect negotiations with Israel for a Gaza ceasefire, now with guidance from Sinwar instead of Haniyeh, who was also based in Doha.
. biden-says-hamas-backing-away-from-hostage-ceasefire-deal-as-blinken-heads-to-egypt/
Sinwar is a military target for the Israel Defence Force because he is believed to have organized the Oct 07 attack. He is hiding in tunnels in Gaza Strip. Hardly anyone even knows where he is. If Israel finds out where he is they will drop a bomb on him right away.
This makes it more complex than before when they were negotiating with Haniyeh who lived in Qatar and wasn't in hiding and didn't live in an active war zone.
However, it would be impossible to achieve a real ceasefire without the cooperation of Sinweh. So there are some benefits in negotiating with Sinwar, even though it can only be done indirectly and almost nobody knows even where he is.
The US remain optimistic.
Sinweh has personal reasons to want to postpone it. On the other hand the agreement by ending the bombing would make him safe from being killed in Gaza Strip by the bombs though still a wanted man. And he has to think about how his decision will be received by his supporters and others in Gaza Strip who want an end to the bombing.
It's very likely that Hamas proposes changes and then it would be up to Netanyahu. The US is trying to get everyone to wrap up the talks as soon as possible as they believe this is the best opportunity yet to achieve a resolution.
Assuming both sign up to the bridging proposal, it is just the first step. They are working in parallel on implementation agreements. This works out in detail e.g. how a continued Israel presence along the Egyptian / Gaza Strip border would work, who would do what, what the rules are etc, assuming that clause is accepted.
That would likely take a fair while to sort out. So it's not likely to be an immediate ceasefire even then, but if they accept the bridging proposal it's a good step forward that likely leads to a ceasefire reasonably soon.
Secretary Blinken put it like this:
QUOTE STARTS
... President Biden put out a detailed plan for a ceasefire and the release of hostages in May. ... A lot of work went into that, and we got to the point where, as we were working on implementing that plan, it was necessary hearing from both the parties to provide some clarifications, to provide some additional detail, and that’s exactly what went into the bridging proposal that our three countries put forward just a little over a week ago.
Israel has now accepted that proposal – I heard that directly from Prime Minister Netanyahu yesterday – and we hope and expect that Hamas will do the same. That’s the critical next step, but once that happens we also have to complete the detailed implementation agreements that go along with putting the ceasefire into effect. ...
We’re engaged every single day with Israel, and our Qatari and Egyptian partners are engaged with Hamas, and over the coming days we are going to do everything possible to, one, get Hamas on board with the bridging proposal, and then to make sure that both parties work on and agree to necessary details of implementation that would allow everything to go forward. ...
This needs to get done and it needs to get done in the days ahead, and we will do everything possible to get it across the finish line.