Contents and graphics for: Helping Ukraine win is a path to peace not war
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TEXT ON GRAPHIC: Why Ukraine’s victory plan is a path to peace not war
Slow Ukrainian drones 18th Step 2024
Nearly 30 kilotons of bombs destroyed saving thousands of lives
First ATACMS in Russia, 19th Nov. 2024. Blowing up bombs meant for Ukraine.
Russia is HUGE just wants to add one more region to its vast territorySmaller Ukraine defending from increasing rain of bombs.
Ukraine CAN win without taking ANYTHING from Russia.
All it wants is for Russia to leave and stop the bombing.
Small Ukraine defending from rain of bombs
Map combines Google Maps Toropets 56°30'00.0"N 31°43'15.0"E · 56.500000, 31.720833
Google Maps Karachev Karachev · Bryansk Oblast, Russia, 242500
Photos:
ATACMS Ukraine Battle Map (@ukraine_map) on X
Damage assessment photos from: Thread by @DefenceHQ on Thread Reader App
Google Maps Karachev Karachev · Bryansk Oblast, Russia, 242500
Toropets Assessment of Other Key GRAU Arsenals As Big as in Toropets Within Ukraine's Reach | Defense Express
If you haven’t read it already see my:
The aim of this blog post is to fact check some of Putin’s numerous lies and false beliefs spread in the media and believed by the people we help as fact checkers to help scared people.
Ukraine is responding to a big increase in bombing by Russia in the last few weeks and the new ATACMS permission can help STOP the bombs
The people to be concerned about are the civilians in Ukraine. NOT NATO members.
This is what Zelensky says:
You can watch that video here . Thread by @ZelenskyyUa on Thread Reader App with photos and videos of some of the strikes in the previous week in Ukraine.
Putin is just lying when he says the US and UK are fighting in Ukraine - they are just suppliers and are LESS involved if they put no restrictions on the weapons - example of US selling ATACMS to Singapore
TEXT ON GRAPHIC
Putin's request to Biden to prohibit Ukraine from using its weapons to hit any targets outside Ukraine was always VERY BIZARRE
Singapore would NEVER buy ATACMS if it could only use them to hit targets in Singapore.
That the USA provides Singapore with ATACMS without this bizarre restriction does NOT make the USA a combatant in any war where Sinpaore might defend itself with ATACMS.
See my:
The Ukraine conflict is NOT global - doesn’t even involve ANY other countries on Ukraine’s side
Zelensky and Ukrainians DO NOT WANT WAR - they want peace for the same reasons anyone would in their situation - an end to the deaths and falling bombs
Josep Borrell had a good way to put it:
TEXT ON GRAPHIC:
"In my opinion Ukraine should have the capability to target the source of these attacks— to strike the archers, not just the arrows."
- Josep Borrell, High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy / Vice-President of the European CommissionPhotograph: . File:Josep Borrell (49468484246).jpg - Wikimedia Commons
TEXT ON GRAPHIC:
Attacks on Ukraine don’t attack NATO
To prevent Russia attacking NATO:
New NATO policy - still take first blow - then take out attacking weapons system.
TRANSCRIPT:
The idea was we are a defensive Alliance so we will only sit and wait until we're attacked and then when we're attacked we will be able to shoot down the arrows that come to us.
But it is smarter not only to do that but also to attack the Archer that is in Russia if Russia attacks us.
So, you need to have a combination of deep Precision strike with which you can take out the weapon systems that are used to attack us.
Of course be because we're a defensive Alliance we will have to take the first blow. So Russia will start the conflict because we are not going to attack Russia out of nothing.
So we will need more air defense, that's one of the lessons from Ukraine, and at the same time we are going to invest in the Deep Precision strike
END TRANSCRIPT
Ukraine is NOT asking Russia to surrender - it is asking it to stop attacking and invading
Russia is trying to coerce Ukraine into surrender through terror - which naturally lead to even the many pro-Russia Ukrainians joining the fight against Russia
Ukrainians do NOT want to retaliate - they have many relatives and friends in Russia and want to protect Russian civilians
See my:
Ukraine targets the archers, their shields, their bows and arrows and the bow and arrow stockpiles and manufacturers in Josep Borell’s analogy
Zelensky says this is part of his Victory plan - and that strikes are not announced in advance
QUOTE STARTS
The plan to strengthen Ukraine is the Victory Plan which I presented to our partners. One of its key points is long-range capabilities for our army.
Today, there’s a lot of talk in the media about us receiving permission for respective[appropriate] actions. But strikes are not carried out with words. Such things are not announced. Missiles will speak for themselves. They certainly will"
. 🌊 R Saddler (@Politics_PR) on X
Putin may well think Ukraine has a victory plan too - his command centers are especially vulnerable to Stormshadow
The Stormshadows were used to destroy the Black Sea Fleet headquarters in Crimea and nowadays it is impossible for Russia to set up a command post anywhere in Crimea. This shows the moment a Stormshadow missile went through the roof of the Black Sea Fleet HQ in Sevastopol. Sept 2023.
The Ukrainians claimed to have hit a gathering of Russian officials directing the Black Sea Fleet.
This was part of a series of missile strikes that eventually forced the Black Sea and its HQ to leave Crimea entirely as nowhere there was safe for either its ships or its commanders.
With the Stormshadow and ATACMS Ukraine could destroy the military HQ of the entire Ukraine war operation in Rostov-upon-Don just like it destroyed the HQ of the Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol.
This is the building that memorably Prikorvsky took over in his short lived rebellion against Putin.
If Ukraine attacked that building at an awkward point for Russia it could seriously impede on their attempts to stop a counteroffensive.
TEXT ON GRAPHIC
ATACMS could be programmed with google maps and streetview
HQ of Rusisa’s war campaign in Ukraine is within ATACMS reach in Rostov-upon-Don
Google maps: 47°13'25.1"N 39°42'17.6"E
This is from the ISW interactive map here
It is one of many targets in Rostov on Don
Larger view:
. Interactive Map: Hundreds of Known Russian Military Objects are in Range of ATACMS
If the same happens in Rostov on Don as happened to the Black Sea Fleet HQ in Sevastopol, Putin's generals will have to direct the war from more than 300 km from the front line.
This would surely seriously impede his ability to fight the war.
If Ukraine had this ability a year earlier in 2023 or even in 2022 it could have won easily - but it may still be a significant advantage - Zelensky clearly thinks so
So why did the Western leaders hesitate so much? Not out of fear of nukes - or they’d have told us how to protect ourselves - likely concerns of losing support of their electorate - much less of a concern for Putin
See my debunk here
In 2024, Ukraine hit many oil refineries first - then fuel depots - now stockpiles of bombs - at distance of hundreds of kilometers from their front line
This is the map as of April of this year
. Ukraine’s strikes against Russian oil refineries
After that it started blowing up fuel depots. The biggest fuel depot fire burnt for 16 days.
The huge fuel tanks kept exploding one after another. You can't put out an oil or gasoline fire with water. On the first day they tried to put it out with water but it just made it worse.
Then after that it started blowing up Russia's stockpiles of bombs.
This is the Toropets explosion in the cover image:
At 1:14 in you hear the local Russian officials telling us that everything is under control while you hear the explosions in the background
TEXT ON GRAPHIC (at 44 seconds in)
You hear the sound of explosions going off as they speak.
“The air defence system of the Ministry of Defence did its job.
Most of 30 kilotons of explosives blew up
How Russia responds to setbacks in the war - tells everyone that nothing is happening.
NATO members are NOT going to send soldiers to fight in Ukraine - Poland couldn’t even send a humanitarian mission in 2022 to rescue the civilians in Mariupol
TEXT ON GRAPHIC
Mass graves outside MariupolAssociated Press counts at least 10,300 graves - almost all will be civilians
In 2022, Poland wanted to send a humanitarian mission to evacuate them before Mariupol was completely encircled
But other NATO countries vetoed, and now they are in these mass graves.
NATO is VERY risk avers to the slightest risk of engaging with Russian soldiers
Photo from: How the AP estimated 10,300 new graves in occupied Mariupol
That shows you how hyper careful Ukraine's allies are.
There is no way that any UK or European soldiers will be involved in combat duty in Ukraine.
Zelensky needs equipment not soldiers - he could double his army and still be at less than a half of UK WW2 levels of conscription
Zelensky doesn't need soldiers he needs equipment. Ukraine with a million soldiers is still at only 2.5% of its population compared to nearly 25% for the UK in WW2
.
TEXT ON GRAPHIC:
NASA, huge and powerful but very timid
Russia knows it can't use nukes in reality
Russia tiny and weak, bluffs as meaningless as soap bubbles
Even the Soviet Union had no way to win a war with nukes
Imagine if your team was invisible - how easily you could win a game of football.
That is how much better NATO's F-35 jets are than anything Russia has.
300+ F-35s (USA), 100+ F-35s (Europe).
Russia's 5th generation fighter jet is not ready for war and may never be (expensive technology to develop).
NATO's technology is vastly superior (one of many ways)
NATO: Population 967 million [it's 631 million leaving out USA] NATO: 3.5 million soldiers
Russia: Population 144 million, 0.9% = 1.32 million soldiers
Ukraine: 42 million, 2.1% = 900,000 soldiers
UK war levels of conscription ~12%.
US defence spending $883.7 billion, 3% of GDP
NATO European allies $380 billion, 2% of GDP
Russia: $112 billion, 6% of GDP.
Ukraine: $43.23 billion, 22.1% of GDP
Based on this image created by Dall-E via Bing Chat
American football photo from: BFile:US Navy 090608-N-3283P-018 The Yokosuka Seahawks face off against the Yokohama Harbors during the U.S. Forces Japan-American Football league at Yokosuka Field.jpg - Wikimedia Commons https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:US_Navy_090608-N-3283P-018_The_Yokosuka_Seahawks_face_off_against_the_Yokohama_Harbors_during_the_U.S._Forces_Japan-American_Football_league_at_Yokosuka_Field.jpg
Putin head from this graphic flipped Vladimir_Putin_
Equipment matters far more than soldiers in a modern war - a few hundred Tomahawk cruise missiles and Putin would have to give up on the invasion
Any NATO country would have access to these on day 1 but Ukraine’s allies feel they are too powerful for Ukraine.
Ukraine uses similar weapons with a much shorter range against Russia in Crimea (such as the UK Stormshadow and its own Neptune) and Russia is unable to stop them.
TEXT ON GRAPHIC
Range of the US tomahawk cruise missile with a half ton payload like the ATACMS, travels at nearly 1000 km / hour, range 2,400 km.
Proven ability to get through Russia's S-400 system
With the current state of Russian air defences, teh US could sink the entire Russian Black Sea fleet in a few hours but doesn't give this capability to ukraine.
Details of the missile here: Tomahawk (missile) - Wikipedia
Circle drawn with this free online map circle drawing tool Radius Around a Point on a Map
Russia seems unable even to stop modified microlight hobbyist aircraft loaded with explosives! This is about how Ukraine is using modified ultralights as long range attack drones. Ukraine appears to deploy modified A-22 ultralights as suicide UAVs
TEXT ON GRAPHIC: Russia's air defences are so degraded that Ukraine is able to fly ultralights through them without getting shot down.
Replace pilot by explosives and remote control, and you have a drone that can evade the Russian air defences and bomb a Russian oil refinery 1000s of kilometres from Ukraine.
Yet Russia claims FALSELY it can "escalate" and win a war against not just Ukraine but NATO as well. Just bluffs and bulls**t.
Graphic shows the File:Huntair.pathfinder.arp.jpg
Replace pilot and passenger by explosives and remote control and you have a drone that can evade the Russian air defences and head off and bomb a refinery deep in Russia.
It would likely end the war immediately if Ukraine had them.
The Black Sea fleet is very important to Russia historically and culturally as well as militarily.
TEXT ON GRAPHIC
Russia’s Black Sea Fleet is of huge national pride to the Russians. Ukraine has already sunk its flagship and a third of its ships with the ATACMS, stormshadows and its own native Neptune but most have retreated out of reach to the far side of the Black Sea.
If Ukaine had the Tomahawk cruise missile it could sink the entire fleet - gone from the Black Sea for the first time since it began in 1783
A major lever for negotiations with Russia from a position of strength.
Black Sea Fleet - just before the start of the Crimean war of 1853-6
Graphic: Ivan Aivazovsky. Black Sea Fleet in the Bay of Theodosia, Crimea, just before the Crimean War
General Bauer and others talk about preparing for war to protect peace AFTER the war is over - no conscripts will ever be needed from countries outside Ukraine
See my:
[by lose quickly, Admiral Radakin means pushed right out of NATO territory, and any missile systems firing at NATO destroyed - NATO wouldn't try to defeat Russia as it is purely defensive]
See also:
BLOG: No possibility of conscription in UK - might expand civilian volunteer defence force but never through conscription - Russia is extraordinarily weak - Patrick Sanders wants to deter the remote risk of an attack if it recovers strength years later]
BLOG: No way that UK needs conscription to fight Russia - NATO has 3.5 million military (troops and civilians) and a new conscript takes six months training to be a basic soldier
US and UK will NEVER send soldiers to actually fight in Ukraine - but they are involved in may OTHER small wars and they are NOT global because all the fighting is confined to a small region
Putin’s invasion of Ukraine was a mistake with no plan B - NOT crazy for him - as an ex KGB spy - he only does anything if he is so 100% sure he doesn’t even need a plan B
See my:
We don’t know Ukraine’s top secret Victory plan - but if Ukraine liberates large areas of Ukraine - Putin’s main pre-occupation will be how to present it as a win to Russians
For the ordinary Russian even nearly 3 years into the war it is just a small “special operation”
Stories about bunkers are about deterrence for conventional attacks in some ex Soviet Union countries that have lots of bunkers like the ones Ukraine uses to protect itself in Ukraine
You do NOT need a bunker for protection from fallout - a movie trope only
We would ALL KNOW THIS if there was a real risk of a nuclear war.
TEXT ON GRAPHIC
You do NOT see these instructions on the news because there IS NO REAL WORLD WAR RISK
We were ALL sent this in the cold war.
NOBODY is sent it today.
Our governments do NOT assess ANY risk of a world war.
These instructions would save millions of lives in a nuclear war.
If you are outside the epicenter and stay away from the heavy dust that falls from the sky you don't get radiation sickness.
Radioactivity is mostly gone in 2 days, most of what's left in weeks.
When I was a child we all read this and knew what to do.
Now almost nobody knows except older people because we DON'T NEED TO KNOW.
Because there is NO LONGER ANY REAL RISK OF A NUCLEAR WAR.
It's bluffs, clickbait, sensationalism and exaggerations.
Graphic from: Protect and survive : this booklet tells you how to make your home and your family as safe as possible under nuclear attack
For more on this see:
Zelensky: “We are choosing NATO NOT NUCLEAR WEAPONS” - and he meant joining NATO AFTER THE WAR
This is another example of clickbait misreporting. Zelensky said Ukraine chooses NATO NOT nuclear weapons.
This was MISREPORTED in Western media as Zelensky telling Trump that Ukraine will either join NATO or get nuclear weapons.
You could hardly be further from the truth than that. Zelensky asked reporters not to spread this false message but sadly they continue to do so
.
TEXT ON GRAPHIC
NATO members are not at war.
In NATO countries, people are all alive, thank God!
And that is why we choose NATO and not nuclear weapons.
We are choosing NATO.
What Zelensky really said: “not nuclear weapons”
MISREPORTED as (NOT WHAT HE SAID) “I told Donald Trump that Ukraine will either have nuclear weapons or join NATO!”
You can see some of this misreporting by a google search of that sentence FALSELY attributed to Zelensky - maybe a mistranslation by someone?
See: “I told Donald Trump that Ukraine will either have nuclear weapons or join NATO!”
Zelensky was asked to clarify and he said again that Ukraine does NOT want nukes emphasizing: “We don’t do nuclear weapons”
TEXT ON GRAPHIC
Q. Mr President you just made it clear at the EU Summit that the question of nuclear weapons would arise for Ukraine if it cannot become a NATO member.
So in this context can you tell us how long it would take for Ukraine to build a nuclear bomb?
And a question to the Secretary General would you understand [that] Ukraine [can] build a nuclear Bomb if it cannot become a NATO member
A. Sometimes we create problems for ourselves and now you are beginning to do that.
We never said that we are preparing to create a nuclear weapon.
I said that when Budapest memorandum was signed by very honorable very powerful nuclear countries it said that Ukraine gives nuclear weapons [back to Russia] and Ukraine will have promises from these very respectable countries including Russia China United States that we will have our secure territorial integrity and sovereignty.
...
After that Putin began this occupation [of Ukraine] not once but ... two times during the last 10 years.
This means that it's not a very good umbrella for our security.
That's why I said I don't have an alternative except NATO.
That was my signal.
But we don't do nuclear weapons. Please don't spread these messages.
[rewritten slightly for fluency]
NATO Secretary General: And Ukraine will be in NATO and until that happens we will make sure that Ukraine has everything it needs to prevail .
See video here
Ukraine does NOT want its Soviet era nukes back! Bizarre suggestion of unnamed officials that makes no sense
Russia’s Sarmat ICBM is just a replacement for the Ukrainian made Voevoda ICBM with shelf-life through to 2023 - but it keeps blowing up
For details see:
Putin can’t win a war with nukes - the opposite - all-out war would end with his people rising against him and NATO taking over Russian skies
That map shows what happens if Russia fires ALL its nukes at the USA.
TEXT ON GRAPHIC
No way Russia does this.
If Russia launched ALL its nukes it could make the areas on orange radioactive for a couple fo days, some lingering for weeks, worst over in hours.
Focus of largest humanitarian operation ever
Anyone indoors will be much safer and can leave their house after 2 days.
There is no fallout outside the orange areas - fallout is just heavy dust.
It’s impossible for Russia to win a war by using nukes like this.
See my:
We found from the Ukraine war to most people’s surprise that NATO’s technology from the 1980s is still vastly superior to what Russia has. If Russia had anything like NATO’s capability it wouldn’t be stuck moving one mile a week in Eastern Donbas but would have got control of the entire Ukrainian air space on day 1 of the war.
TEXT ON GRAPHIC:
Geneva Protocol II from 1977
Must NOT target
- civilian populations
- civilian objects
- cultural objects
Ratified by all NATO countries except USA
USA in practice complies without ratifying.
US had Soviet cities as targets in 1956
- long before Geneva Protocol II
Never any possibility of toal destruction just of large numbers of casualties
- nukes can't destroy a country
- neither NATO nor the Soviet Union ever had anything like enough nukes to destroy the other side to the extent they can't fight.
This is IMPORTANT as it means PUTIN CAN'T DEFEAT NATO WITH NUKES No country ever had first strike capability.
The conventional NATO military would remain and be far superior to Russia after any exchange of nukes.
Putin would LOSE if he used nukes.
Nukes ONLY WORK AS A DETERRENT to prevent another country invading by threatening to use nukes if they do.
Under Trump and Biden, the US no longer will respond to nukes with nukes.
It more sensibly responds by using sleeper agents, conventional weapons, hacking, special ops etc to stop Russia firing more nukes.
USA and Russia do NOT have a M.A.D. doctrine (Mutually Assured Destruction)
Likely NEVER had such a doctrine though te 1950s doctrine had some similarities.
Today the USA would more rationally act to prevent Putin launching more nukes and Russia would LOSE, he couldn't stop NATO taking over Russian airspace.
So, whatever happened, NATO would survive and would be still vastly superiro in conventional terms to Russia.
Ordinary Russians as well as Putin's colleagues would no longer see him
as a strong man to protect Russia after such catastrophic misjudgement.
The main question would be whether he would be assassinated or spend the rest of his life in prison.
For details see
SECTION: Not in the world of M.A.D (Mutual Assured Destruction)
in:
That can help people see he is never going to do this.
Putin is rubbish at war - master of propaganda
Putin is NOT pushed into a corner by this war - just trying his best to push Ukraine into a corner
Putin has already lost many times in this war - but convinces everyone FALSELY that he always wins in Ukraine and that the world is a safer place if he continues to win
He manages to make his bluffs about nukes seem FALSELY - MORE convincing even with NO PREPARATION TO USE NUKES and bluffing ABOUT ONCE A MONTH
Singh says it is just the rhetoric we've seen before.
TEXT ON GRAPHIC:
Is the Pentagon concerned about nukes or changed alert level?
A. We see NO signs of Putin preparing to use nukes and have NOT CHANGED OUR ALERT LEVEL.
Has world war III began?
No. This is just the US as one of 50 or so countries supporting Ukraine’s defence capabilities.
[my short summary for autistic or panicking readers]
Graphic shows title section for “No signs Russia is preparing to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, Pentagon says” (story in the Kyiv Independent) and transcript of Pentagon press briefing saying the same thing.
See my:
A completely predictable pattern. Yet people fall for the bluff over and over.
When he loses his preoccupation will just be - how to present it as a “win” to his people
Never any risk of a world war - and our leaders know this or they would say what to do
I have this article I'm working on and this may be a good time to finish it to help people consolidate their understanding that we do not risk a world war.
It may be useful already
Ukraine wants to join NATO after the war is over because it sees that even the weakest of countries are safe once they join NATO
SEE ALSO
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